MILWAUKEE — A Marquette University Law School poll of adults nationwide finds 60% saying they approve of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job, while 39% disapprove and 1% do not offer an opinion. By comparison, in the same national poll, 58% approve of the way President Joe Biden is handling his job as president, while 42% disapprove. The U.S. Congress fares worst of the three branches, as 33% among the public approve and 66% disapprove of how Congress is performing its duties.

Over the past year, approval of the Court has declined six points, from 66% in September 2020. Disapproval rose a corresponding amount, from 33% to 39%. Asked which branch of the federal government they trust most, 58% of respondents say they trust the Court most of the three branches, with 28% saying they trust the presidency most and 13% saying they trust Congress the most. In the 2020 national Marquette Law School Poll, 59% said they trusted the Court most, with the presidency at 24% and Congress at 16%.

The Marquette Law School Poll previously conducted national surveys of public opinion and attitudes about the U.S. Supreme Court in 2019 and 2020. This new poll reflects an expansion of this initiative, which will see a similar national poll conducted every other month for the next year. This survey was conducted July 16-26, 2021, among 1,010 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online.

Approval of the Court varies little by party in this survey, whereas partisanship played a larger role a year ago. Tables 1 and 2 show approval of the way the Court is handling its job, by party identification for 2021 and 2020. Democrats and Republicans have similar approval ratings of the Court this year, but in 2020 Republicans were much more approving of the Court. This shift is striking because the 2020 survey was completed before Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died, so the decline in Republican approval comes despite the addition of Justice Amy Coney Barrett, who was appointed by Republican President Donald Trump.

All numbers in tables are percentages unless context indicates otherwise.

Table 1: Approval of the way the Court is doing its job, by party identification, July 2021

Party ID	Approve	Disapprove	Refused
Republican	57	42	1
Independent	61	37	1
Democrat	59	40	1

Table 2: Approval of the way the Court is doing its job, by party identification, September 2020

Party ID	Approve	Disapprove	Refused
Republican	80	19	2
Independent	64	34	2
Democrat	57	43	0

Despite the intense arguments over the Court in partisan circles, perceptions of the Court’s makeup have changed only modestly since Barrett’s nomination gave Republican presidents six appointments to the Court versus three appointments by Democratic presidents. Fewer than a third of respondents say Republican presidents have “definitely” appointed a majority of the Court, while just under half say they “probably” have appointed a majority. Almost a quarter say Democratic presidents have probably or definitely appointed a majority of the Court. Perception has shifted slightly over the past three years, with more awareness in 2021 of a Republican-appointed majority, as shown in Table 3.

Table 3: What is your guess as to whether a majority of the current US Supreme Court Justices were appointed by Democratic or Republican presidents?

Survey	Definitely a majority appointed by Democratic presidents	Probably a majority appointed by Democratic presidents	Probably a majority appointed by Republican presidents	Definitely a majority appointed by Republican presidents
September 2019	4	23	53	19
September 2020	4	24	51	21
July 2021	4	20	45	30

Knowledge of the partisan majority—a shorthand term used in this release simply to refer to the party of the appointing president—varies substantially by party. Despite three appointments to the Court by Donald Trump and frequent public references to Republican emphasis on judicial nominations, only 16% of Republicans say Republican presidents have “definitely” appointed a majority of the justices. By comparison, 44% of Democrats know this fact. Table 4 shows awareness of the partisan majority by party identification.

Table 4: Perceived partisan majority, by party identification

Party ID	Definitely/Probably Dem majority	Probably Rep majority	Definitely Rep majority
Republican	30	53	16
Independent	26	45	28
Democrat	18	38	44

Republicans who think Democratic presidents have appointed a majority of the Court (30% of all Republicans) are much less approving of the Court than Republicans who know there is a Republican-appointed majority. For independents and Democrats, those who say Republican presidents have definitely appointed a majority of the Court are less approving than those who say there is “probably” a Republican-appointed majority or who think there might be a majority appointed by Democratic presidents. Table 5 shows this relationship.

Table 5: Approval of the Court, by party and knowledge of partisan majority

Party ID	Awareness of partisan majority	Approve	Disapprove	Refused
Republican	Definitely/Probably Dem majority	43	57	0
Republican	Probably Rep majority	63	36	1
Republican	Definitely Rep majority	64	36	0
Independent	Definitely/Probably Dem majority	60	36	4
Independent	Probably Rep majority	67	32	0
Independent	Definitely Rep majority	52	48	0
Democrat	Definitely/Probably Dem majority	71	29	0
Democrat	Probably Rep majority	63	35	3
Democrat	Definitely Rep majority	52	48	0

Institutional change

Expansion of the Court has become a frequent topic of debate following recent confirmation battles in Congress. In the new national Marquette Law School Poll, 48% favor increasing the number of justices on the Court, while 51% oppose such a structural change.

On the issue of expanding the number of justices, the poll shows substantial and symmetric partisan differences, as shown in Table 6, with Republicans heavily opposed to an expansion and Democrats heavily in favor. Independents are, on balance, somewhat opposed.

Table 6: Support for expanding the number of justices, by party identification

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	26	74
Independent	44	56
Democrat	73	26

A majority of the public thinks that justices should not consider partisan control of the presidency and Senate when deciding the timing of their retirements. However, when given information about some Democrats urging Justice Stephen Breyer to retire now with a Democratic president and Senate, more people support retiring with politics in mind, though it remains a minority.

When asked “Do you think Justices should consider the party in control of the White House and senate as they decide when to retire?” 28% say justices should consider party control, while 72% say they should not consider this. This item was asked of a random half-sample of the survey.

The other random half of respondents was provided more information and context in the form of an alternative question worded this way: “Justice Stephen Breyer is 82 years old and the oldest member of the Court. He was nominated to the court in 1994 by President Clinton. Some Democrats are urging Breyer to retire now while there are a Democratic president and senate. Do you think Justices should consider the party in control of the White House and senate as they decide when to retire?” With this wording, 39% say justices should consider party control while 60% say they should not.

The partisan information boosts support for political timing of retirements across partisan identification, especially among Democrats, as shown in Tables 7 and 8.

Table 7: “Do you think Justices should consider the party in control of the White House and senate as they decide when to retire?”

Party ID	Consider party control	Not consider party control
Republican	16	84
Independent	26	74
Democrat	41	59

Table 8: “Justice Stephen Breyer is 82 years old and the oldest member of the Court. He was nominated to the court in 1994 by President Clinton. Some Democrats are urging Breyer to retire now while there are a Democratic president and senate. Do you think Justices should consider the party in control of the White House and senate as they decide when to retire?”

Party ID	Consider party control	Not consider party control
Republican	23	77
Independent	37	61
Democrat	58	42

Cases and decisions

While some Supreme Court decisions break through to public awareness among almost all citizens, most cases struggle to reach even half of the public. Six cases handed down in June or early July illustrate this range of visibility. They also show that, among those who have heard of them, a plurality supports all but one of the decisions, with substantial plurality support for three of the six decisions. Table 9 shows these decisions in order from least visible to most visible. The exact question wordings describing these cases were paraphrases of the way the cases were described in leading newspaper coverage. The full wording of the questions is given at the end of this release and is also available in the complete survey instrument posted online.

Table 9: Awareness and view of decisions

Decision	Heard nothing	Heard but not enough	Heard enough	Favor	Oppose	Net favor
California donor disclosure (Americans for Prosperity Foundation v. Bonta)	40	21	38	20	18	2
NCAA antitrust (NCAA v. Alston)	33	25	41	34	7	27
Arizona voting rights (Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee)	27	26	46	23	23	0
Philadelphia Catholic Social Services (Fulton v. City of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)	36	17	46	27	19	8
School speech (Mahanoy Area School District v. B.L.)	24	16	59	52	7	45
Affordable Care Act (California v. Texas)	15	24	60	42	18	24

Perceived ideology of the Supreme Court

The Supreme Court is perceived as a center-right institution. Thirteen percent say it is very conservative, 37% say it is somewhat conservative, and 42% call it moderate. A small set of respondents (6%) see the Court as somewhat liberal and 1% think it is very liberal.

Perceptions have shifted a bit to the right since September 2020, when 5% said the Court was very conservative, 30% called it conservative, and 54% labeled it moderate, while 9% said it was liberal and 2% called it very liberal. (The category labels changed from 2020 to 2021, replacing “conservative” with “somewhat conservative” and “liberal” with “somewhat liberal,” so it is possible that this change in wording affected the results independently of changes in public perceptions.)

Compared across political institutions and actors, the Court is on average seen as closer to the center than is the Republican party and closer to the right than is Joe Biden or the Democratic party. Table 10 shows the average position on a 1-5 scale, where 1 is very conservative and 5 is very liberal.

Table 10: Average ideological ratings where 1 is very conservative through 5 is very liberal

Rating for	Mean
Republican party	1.77
Supreme Court	2.44
Joe Biden	3.73
Democratic party	3.95

While the public sees the court as leaning to the right ideologically, a substantial majority (71%) say the justices’ decisions are most often motivated by the law, while 29% say decisions are mainly based on politics. In the 2020 poll, 62% said the law was the main motivation of justices, and 37% said it was mainly politics.

A majority of each partisan group says the justices are mainly motivated by the law, though the majorities are somewhat smaller among Democrats than among Republicans or independents. Table 11 shows responses by party.

Table 11: Do justices decide mainly based on politics or the law, by party

Party ID	Mainly politics	Mainly the law
Republican	24	76
Independent	25	75
Democrat	40	60

The public’s views of the justices

The justices are not well known among the public. Nearly a quarter of respondents (24%) say they do not know enough about any of the nine justices to give a favorable or unfavorable opinion about them. Another quarter, 27%, are able to rate one, two or three justices. Twenty-three percent are able to rate four to six justices, and a final 26% can rate seven to nine justices.

Individual justices vary considerably in their visibility to the public. Table 12 shows the justices in order from least well known to most well known.

Table 12: Recognition and favorability ratings of justices, July 2021

Justice	Never heard of	Heard but not enough	Able to rate	Favorable	Unfavorable
Stephen Breyer	43	33	24	18	6
Elena Kagan	41	30	29	21	8
Samuel Alito	39	30	31	19	12
Neil Gorsuch	35	31	34	21	13
John Roberts	30	26	43	29	14
Sonia Sotomayor	25	25	49	37	12
Amy Coney Barrett	21	25	53	27	26
Clarence Thomas	21	22	57	32	25
Brett Kavanaugh	17	24	58	26	32

The order of justices by visibility is little changed from a year ago, with Barrett as third-most visible; on the Court, she replaced Ginsburg, who was the most well-known prior to her death in 2020. Breyer, Alito, Kagan and Gorsuch were the least well-known both years. Chief Justice John Roberts has been in the middle of visibility, with just over 40% able to rate him in both 2020 and 2021. The corresponding ratings of justices in September 2020 are shown in Table 13.

Table 13: 2020 Recognition and favorability ratings of justices, September 2020

Justice	Never heard of	Heard but not enough	Able to rate	Favorable	Unfavorable
Stephen Breyer	47	34	18	12	6
Samuel Alito	41	33	25	17	8
Elena Kagan	46	27	27	18	9
Neil Gorsuch	37	29	33	19	14
John Roberts	31	27	41	28	13
Sonia Sotomayor	28	25	47	33	14
Clarence Thomas	22	23	55	30	25
Brett Kavanaugh	16	23	60	28	32
Ruth Bader Ginsburg	17	19	63	44	19

How knowledge and partisanship structure views of the Court

While the Supreme Court has been embroiled in political fights over appointments and high-stakes decisions on cases, and many party and interest group activists see the Court as crucial to their political and policy goals, the Court is, for the mass public, a somewhat distant object. Most citizens can offer generalized views of approval or ideology or trust, but specific and detailed knowledge is often lacking. While virtually all respondents are willing to give an approval rating or place the Court on a liberal-conservative ideology scale, only about half, 51%, say the choice of the next justice is “very important” to them personally, only 58% can say whether they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of the best-known justice, while one in four (24%) state they don’t know enough to rate any of the nine justices, and 18% do not know enough to offer an opinion of any of six cases decided in the previous two months.

While it is common for voters to lack detailed knowledge of policy, procedure. or elected officials, the Court falls at the low end of visibility. It is not uncommon for a quarter to a third of voters to lack a favorable or unfavorable opinion of their U.S. senators, yet 42% were unable to give an opinion about the best-known justice, and 76% lacked an opinion of the least-known justice. Many voters are unable to give the name of their member of the House of Representatives. In light of this, it is not that the Court’s limited visibility is unique but rather that it represents the low end of a continuum from the highly visible president, through governors, senators, and members of Congress, to the Court.

An important implication of this is that the structure of opinion about the Court may differ substantially between those who have high interest in it and those who only casually attend to the Court, with rare exceptions such as confirmation battles or landmark decisions.

While opinion is often only loosely informed, citizens still form generalized opinions about the Court in much the same way they form opinion about other less-than-universally known political actors and policy. In particular, they rely on partisanship and party cues.

A first consequence of the information gradient is that those citizens most interested and most informed have the most divided views of the Court, while the less attentive tend to view the Court in a more positive light.

Those who say the next appointment to the Court is very important to them personally are about evenly divided in approval of the Court, while those less concerned are notably more approving, as shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Court approval, by how important is the choice of the next justice

Importance	Approve	Disapprove	Refused
Very important	53	46	1
Somewhat important	68	32	0
Not too important	64	34	3
Not at all important	62	38	0

A similar pattern is evident for knowledge of decisions and of the justices. Those in the best-informed categories are considerably more divided in their views of the Court than are those with more limited knowledge. Table 15 shows the differences by knowledge of recent decisions, and Table 16 shows differences by ability to give an opinion of the justices.

Table 15: Court approval, by knowledge of recent decisions

Awareness of decisions	Approve	Disapprove	Refused
Case knowledge: zero decisions	65	33	2
Case knowledge: 1-2 decisions	63	36	1
Case knowledge: 3-4	62	38	0
Case knowledge: 5-6	49	49	1

Table 16: Approval of the Court, by knowledge of justices

Awareness of justices	Approve	Disapprove	Refused
Lowest quarter	62	36	2
2nd quarter	60	39	0
3rd quarter	64	35	1
Highest quarter	52	47	0

The partisan structure of opinion about the Court

Despite the limitations of knowledge about the Court the public manages, in a rough way, to match its partisan positions to its views of the justices and the Court’s decisions.

With the sole exception of Chief Justice Roberts, net favorability aligns with the partisanship of the respondent and the party of the president who appointed the Justice. This pattern holds for the less well-known justices (Breyer, Alito, Kagan, and Gorsuch) and for the more widely known justices (Sotomayor, Barrett, Thomas, and Kavanaugh). Roberts alone is more positively evaluated by Democrats than by Republicans, despite his appointment by Republican President George W. Bush. Views of the justices by party are shown in Table 17.

Table 17: Recognition and favorability ratings of justices, by party identification

Justice	Party ID	Able to rate	Favorable	Unfavorable	Net favorability
Samuel Alito	Republican	32	25	7	18
Samuel Alito	Independent	29	20	9	11
Samuel Alito	Democrat	33	11	22	-11
Stephen Breyer	Republican	19	10	9	1
Stephen Breyer	Independent	20	16	4	12
Stephen Breyer	Democrat	32	27	5	22
Amy Coney Barrett	Republican	59	56	3	53
Amy Coney Barrett	Independent	47	23	24	-1
Amy Coney Barrett	Democrat	58	9	49	-40
Neil Gorsuch	Republican	33	30	3	27
Neil Gorsuch	Independent	31	21	10	11
Neil Gorsuch	Democrat	37	12	25	-13
Elena Kagan	Republican	27	12	15	-3
Elena Kagan	Independent	25	16	9	7
Elena Kagan	Democrat	36	35	1	34
Brett Kavanaugh	Republican	58	56	2	54
Brett Kavanaugh	Independent	54	23	31	-8
Brett Kavanaugh	Democrat	63	5	58	-53
John Roberts	Republican	36	20	16	4
John Roberts	Independent	44	30	14	16
John Roberts	Democrat	47	35	12	23
Clarence Thomas	Republican	57	50	7	43
Clarence Thomas	Independent	52	30	22	8
Clarence Thomas	Democrat	64	19	45	-26
Sonia Sotomayor	Republican	42	16	26	-10
Sonia Sotomayor	Independent	46	34	12	22
Sonia Sotomayor	Democrat	62	61	1	60

Political partisanship also correlates with reactions to cases with a notable partisan tilt in the lineup of the justices (in the respective majority and dissent) or with a partisan bent in their dominant public characterizations, including the Arizona voting rights, California donor disclosure, Philadelphia Catholic Social Services, and Affordable Care Act cases. Views of other decisions, with a less clear partisan connection, including the school speech and NCAA antitrust decisions, vary less by partisanship, although Democrats favor the decisions somewhat more than do Republicans. These relationships are shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Awareness of decisions and view of decisions by party identification

Decision	Party ID	Not heard/not enough	Favor	Oppose	Net favor
Arizona voting rights (Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee)	Republican	54	34	12	22
Arizona voting rights (Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee)	Independent	55	26	18	8
Arizona voting rights (Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee)	Democrat	51	11	38	-27
California donor disclosure (Americans for Prosperity Foundation v. Bonta)	Republican	61	27	11	16
California donor disclosure (Americans for Prosperity Foundation v. Bonta)	Independent	61	22	17	5
California donor disclosure (Americans for Prosperity Foundation v. Bonta)	Democrat	64	11	25	-14
School speech (Mahanoy Area School District v. B.L.)	Republican	45	45	9	36
School speech (Mahanoy Area School District v. B.L.)	Independent	38	55	5	50
School speech (Mahanoy Area School District v. B.L.)	Democrat	38	55	8	47
Philadelphia Catholic Social Services (Fulton v. City of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)	Republican	47	42	10	32
Philadelphia Catholic Social Services (Fulton v. City of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)	Independent	56	25	18	7
Philadelphia Catholic Social Services (Fulton v. City of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania)	Democrat	54	17	29	-12
Affordable Care Act (California v. Texas)	Republican	48	15	37	-22
Affordable Care Act (California v. Texas)	Independent	43	41	15	26
Affordable Care Act (California v. Texas)	Democrat	26	66	7	59
NCAA antitrust (NCAA v. Alston)	Republican	66	24	9	15
NCAA antitrust (NCAA v. Alston)	Independent	58	35	5	30
NCAA antitrust (NCAA v. Alston)	Democrat	52	41	6	35

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted July 16-26, 2021, interviewing 1,010 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points. Interviews were conducted online using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample. The half-sample items concerning justices’ retirement decisions have a margin of error of +/-5.6 percentage points. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available at https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/results-and-data/

Question wording for Court decisions (see also https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/results-and-data/)

“Do you favor or oppose the following recent Supreme Court decision, or haven’t you heard enough about it to have an opinion? The Supreme Court…”

“Ruled that an Arizona law did not violate the federal Voting Rights Act in rejecting ballots cast at the wrong precinct and limiting who can return absentee ballots for a voter.” [Note to reader here: This is a reference to Brnovich v. Democratic National Committee.]

“Ruled that California cannot require charities to report the identities of their top donors to the state attorney general, saying this violated the Constitutional right of freedom of association.” [Note: A reference to Americans for Prosperity Foundation v. Bonta.]

“Ruled that schools generally cannot punish students for things they say outside of school hours and off school grounds with the possible exception of bullying or threats.” [Note: A reference to Mahanoy Area School District v. B.L.]

“Ruled that Philadelphia was wrong to end a Catholic group’s contract to provide foster-care services because the organization refused to work with same-sex couples.” [Note: A reference to Fulton v. City of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.]

“Rejected a case attempting to strike down the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, leaving the health care law intact.” [Note: A reference to California v. Texas.]

“Ruled that the National Collegiate Athletic Association (NCAA) violated antitrust laws when it limited the various education-related benefits that colleges and universities can offer student athletes.” [Note: A reference to NCAA v. Alston.]

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School poll finds former Vice President Joe Biden the choice of 48% of likely voters in Wisconsin, President Donald Trump supported by 43% and Libertarian Jo Jorgensen receiving 2%. Another 7% say they will vote for none of these candidates, don’t know how they will vote or declined to say. These results include those who are undecided but say they lean to a candidate. This is the final Marquette Law School poll before the November 3 election.

The results are little changed from the Marquette Law School poll conducted from Sept. 30 to Oct. 4, in which Biden was the choice of 47%, Trump the choice of 42% and Jorgensen the choice of 4%. Those results also included those who were undecided but leaned to a candidate.

Among Republicans, 7% say they are voting for Biden, while 86% are voting for Trump, 3% for Jorgensen and 4% undecided or declining to say. Among Democrats, 3% are voting for Trump and 92% are voting for Biden, with none for Jorgensen and 4% undecided or declining to say. Independents say they are voting for Biden over Trump by a 36-28% margin, with 12% for Jorgensen and 24% undecided or declining to say.

The poll was conducted Oct. 21-25, 2020. The sample included 806 registered voters in Wisconsin, who were interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points. There are 749 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points.

Table 1 shows the trend in presidential preference among likely voters from September through October. None of the poll-to-poll changes in support is outside the margin of error.

Table 1: Vote preference among likely voters, September-October 2020

Poll Dates	Net Dem-Rep	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Jo Jorgensen	None/other (VOL)	Don’t know	Refused
8/30-9/3/20	4	48	44	4	0	2	2
9/30-10/4/20	5	47	42	4	1	1	4
10/21-25/20	5	48	43	2	1	0	6

Sensitivity of results to turnout and undecided voters

The vote margins may be sensitive to assumptions about turnout. The model results for likely voters are based on those respondents who say they are certain they will vote or have already done so. Table 2 shows vote both if turnout is lower than the likely-voter sample implies and, by contrast, if turnout is higher using all registered voters as the sample. The results range from a margin for Biden of 3% in a lower turnout than expected, a margin for Biden of 4% in a high turnout in which all registered voters voted, and the previously mentioned 5% Biden margin in our standard likely-voter model.

Table 2: Vote by level of turnout

Response	All registered	Likely-voter model	Lower-turnout model
Joe Biden	47	48	48
Donald Trump	43	43	45
Jo Jorgensen	2	2	2
None/other (VOL)	1	1	0
Don’t know	1	0	0
Refused	6	6	5

In the likely-voter sample, 7% say they are undecided or declined to say how they would vote. To assess the probable impact of their votes, an “allocated” vote assigns these respondents to Biden if they have a favorable view of Biden and not a favorable view of Trump and assigns them to Trump if they are favorable to Trump and not favorable to Biden. If they are favorable to both or not favorable to both, they remain unallocated and remain undecided. Table 3 compares the vote among likely voters without allocation against the allocated vote. While the allocation reduced the undecided, refused and other categories, it does not change the margin, which remains 5 points in favor of Biden. The allocation does raise Biden to 50% and Trump to 45%, while Jorgensen remains at 2 percent.

Table 3: Vote for likely voters and allocated vote, respectively

Response	Likely voters	Likely voters, including allocated vote
Joe Biden	48	50
Donald Trump	43	45
Jo Jorgensen	2	2
None/other (VOL)	1	0
Don’t know	0	0
Refused	6	2

Expectations for the election

Among likely voters, 91% say their minds are made up while 6% say they might change their minds. Among Biden supporters, 95% say their minds are made up. Among Trump supporters, 93% say their minds are made up.

Sixteen percent of likely voters expect Trump to win the election by a lot, 23 percent think Trump will win by a little, 29% think Biden will win by a little and 17% think Biden will win by a lot.

Eighty percent of Trump voters expect him to win and 11% expect Biden to win. Among Biden voters, 80% expect him to win and 6% expect Trump to win.

Twenty-seven percent of likely voters say they are very confident that the votes will be accurately cast and counted in the election, with 43% somewhat confident, 21% not too confident and 7% not at all confident.

Among Republicans, 61% say they are very or somewhat confident the votes will be accurately counted and 37% are not too confident or not at all confident. Eighty-two percent of Democrats are very or somewhat confident the vote will be accurately counted, while 18% are not too or not at all confident.

Choice of ballot type in November

In the poll, 41% of registered voters say they have already voted either by absentee or in-person early voting. According to the Wisconsin Elections Commission data, 37.5% of registered voters had voted as of the end of the poll’s field period on Oct. 25.

Among those who say they have already voted, 64% report they voted for Biden, 25% voted for Trump, and 2% voted for Jorgensen. An additional 9% declined to say for whom they voted. Among those likely voters who have not yet cast a ballot, 35% report they will vote for Biden, 56% for Trump and 3% for Jorgensen. An additional 6% said someone else or declined to say how they will vote.

Views of Trump, Biden, Pence and Harris

Cares about you

Among all registered voters, 43% say “cares about people like you” describes Trump and 54% say this does not describe him. Fifty-six percent say this describes Biden and 40% say this does not describe him. Tables 4 and 5 shows trends on this question since June.

Table 4: Does ‘Cares about people like you’ describe Trump, June-October 2020

Poll date	Cares	Does not care	Don’t know
6/14-18/20	39	57	3
8/30-9/3/20	41	56	3
10/21-25/20	43	54	2

Table 5: Does ‘Cares about people like you’ describe Biden, June-October 2020

Poll date	Cares	Does not care	Don’t know
6/14-18/20	46	42	10
8/30-9/3/20	48	45	5
10/21-25/20	56	40	3

Favorability

Among registered voters, 44% have a favorable view overall of Trump and 54% have an unfavorable view of him. Forty-nine percent have a favorable view of Biden and 46% have an unfavorable view of him.

The full trends for favorability of Trump and Biden are shown in Tables 6 and 7.

Table 6: Favorable or unfavorable view of Trump, May-Oct. 2020

Poll date	Net	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
5/3-7/20	-7	44	51	2	2
6/14-18/20	-12	42	54	2	2
8/4-9/20	-13	42	55	2	1
8/30-9/3/20	-12	42	54	2	1
9/30-10/4/20	-11	42	53	2	2
10/21-25/20	-10	44	54	1	1

Table 7: Favorable or unfavorable view of Biden, May-October 2020

Poll date	Net	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
5/3-7/20	-4	42	46	7	4
6/14-18/20	-2	44	46	7	2
8/4-9/20	-5	43	48	7	2
8/30-9/3/20	-2	45	47	6	1
9/30-10/4/20	3	48	45	5	2
10/21-25/20	3	49	46	3	2

The vice-presidential candidates are less familiar to respondents, with 10% unable to give a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Vice President Mike Pence and 13% unable to give an opinion of Sen. Kamala Harris.

Tables 8 and 9 show favorable and unfavorable ratings for Pence and Harris this fall.

Table 8: Favorable or unfavorable view of Pence, September-October 2020

Poll date	Net	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
8/30-9/3/20	-7	39	46	12	3
9/30-10/4/20	-1	41	42	12	5
10/21-25/20	-1	44	45	7	3

Table 9: Favorable or unfavorable view of Harris, September-October 2020

Poll date	Net	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
8/30-9/3/20	1	38	37	20	4
9/30-10/4/20	-3	37	40	19	4
10/21-25/20	4	45	41	11	2

Trump job approval

As of late October, 47% approve and 52% disapprove of Trump’s job performance. That is a 3-point increase in approval and no change in disapproval since early October. The trend since March is shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Approve or disapprove of Trump’s handling of his job as president, March-October 2020

Poll date	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know
3/24-29/20	48	49	3
5/3-7/20	47	49	3
6/14-18/20	45	51	3
8/4-9/20	44	54	2
8/30-9/3/20	44	54	2
9/30-10/4/20	44	52	2
10/21-25/20	47	52	1

Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic

After an initial approval rating in March of over 50% for his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, Trump’s approval on this front has fallen to 40 percent in late October, a slight change since early October, with approval down 1 point and disapproval up 2 points. The full trend is shown in Table 11.

Table 11: Approve or disapprove of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, March-October 2020

Poll date	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know
3/24-29/20	51	46	2
5/3-7/20	44	51	3
6/14-18/20	44	52	3
8/4-9/20	40	58	2
8/30-9/3/20	41	56	2
9/30-10/4/20	41	56	3
10/21-25/20	40	58	2

Approval of Trump’s handling of protests

Table 12 shows approval since June of Trump’s handling of mass protests since the death of George Floyd in Minneapolis. Approval is 3 points higher than in early October, with no change in disapproval.

Table 12: Approve or disapprove of Trump’s handling of protests, June-October 2020

Poll date	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know
6/14-18/20	30	58	11
8/4-9/20	32	58	9
8/30-9/3/20	36	54	8
9/30-10/4/20	37	54	8
10/21-25/20	40	54	6

Trump’s handling of the economy

Handling of the economy remains Trumps strongest area of approval, with 51% approval and 48% disapproval in the new poll, a 3-point increase in disapproval. The full trend since March is shown in Table 13.

Table 13: Approve or disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, March-October 2020

Poll date	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know
3/24-29/20	54	41	4
5/3-7/20	54	40	4
6/14-18/20	50	46	3
8/4-9/20	51	46	3
8/30-9/3/20	52	44	2
9/30-10/4/20	51	45	4
10/21-25/20	51	48	1

Age group variation in this poll

In this poll, the 18-29-year-old sample is more Republican and more likely to vote for Trump than has typically been the case. This appears to be noisy sampling variation. The 18-29-year-old group is only 60 respondents (unweighted) which has a large margin of error of more than +/- 15 percentage points. Because vote by age has been an important topic, Tables 14 and 15 show the vote by age for this sample and compare it to vote by age for the last three polls combined, using likely voters. Given the consistency of Biden’s margin in multiple polls this year, it is likely that the 18-29-year-old result in October is a sampling anomaly rather than a real change. Because the group is small, this anomaly has little effect on the overall vote margin. If all age groups are weighted to match their long-term partisan composition, the overall vote margin changes by only 1 percentage point, to 48% Biden and 42% for Trump.

Table 14: Vote by age, October only

Age	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Jo Jorgensen	None/other (VOL)	Don’t know	Refused
18-29	48	45	1	1	0	5
30-44	50	39	4	0	0	8
45-59	46	45	5	1	1	2
60+	48	43	0	1	0	8

Table 15: Vote by age, September-October combined

Age	Joe Biden	Donald Trump	Jo Jorgensen	None/other (VOL)	Don’t know	Refused
18-29	54	34	6	0	1	4
30-44	47	41	5	1	2	4
45-59	44	47	4	1	2	3
60+	48	44	1	1	1	5

Attitudes concerning COVID

In late October, 22% say they are very worried about becoming ill from the coronavirus, a decrease from 27% in early October despite the rise of cases in the state. Nineteen percent say they are not at all worried, virtually the same as the 21% in early October.

Table 16 shows how worries have varied since March, when the percent very or somewhat worried was at the highest level seen so far, while the number of those not at all concerned has stabilized close to 20 percent for some time.

Table 16: Taking into consideration both your risk of contracting it and the seriousness of the illness, how worried are you personally about experiencing coronavirus? March-October 2020

Poll date	Very worried	Somewhat worried	Not very worried	Not worried at all	Already had COVID-19 (VOL)	Don’t know
3/24-29/20	30	40	18	11	0	0
5/3-7/20	25	35	20	19	0	0
6/14-18/20	19	36	21	24	1	1
8/4-9/20	27	36	17	19	1	0
8/30-9/3/20	21	39	19	19	1	0
9/30-10/4/20	27	34	16	21	2	0
10/21-25/20	22	35	20	19	3	1

In the new October poll, 64% say they always wear a mask when in a public place, 20% say they do so most of the time, 12% do so only now and then and 3% say they never wear a mask when in public.

Fifty-two percent say they are comfortable eating inside at a restaurant, while 47% say they are uncomfortable doing so. In May, 42% were comfortable and 57% were uncomfortable, while in June 49% were comfortable and 49% were uncomfortable.

Looking back to the closing of schools and businesses last spring, 68% say this was an appropriate response to the coronavirus epidemic, while 26% say it was an overreaction. The full trend for this question is shown in Table 17.

Table 17: Do you think the decision last spring to close schools and businesses and to restrict the size of public gatherings was an appropriate response to the coronavirus outbreak or was it an overreaction that did more harm than good? March-October 2020

Poll date	Appropriate response	Overreaction	Don’t know
3/24-29/20	86	10	3
5/3-7/20	69	26	4
6/14-18/20	72	25	3
10/21-25/20	68	26	5

Supreme Court nomination and upcoming Affordable Care Act case

On Monday, Oct. 26, the Senate confirmed the nomination of Amy Coney Barrett to fill the vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court created by the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. Forty-eight percent say, if they were in the Senate, they would vote to confirm Barrett, while 38% would vote against her confirmation. This is a sharply partisan issue, as shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Vote to confirm Barrett to the Supreme Court by party identification, October 2020

Party ID	Support	Oppose	Don’t know
Republican	87	5	8
Independent	38	28	33
Democrat	10	75	15

On Nov. 10, the Supreme Court is scheduled to hear oral arguments in cases that challenge the constitutionality of the Affordable Care Act, also known as the “ACA” or “Obamacare.” Thirty-five percent would favor the Court’s declaring the law unconstitutional, while 55% would oppose it doing so.

The partisan divide over the ACA is shown in Table 19.

Table 19: Favor or oppose the Supreme Court’s declaring the ACA unconstitutional, by party identification, October 2020

Party ID	Favor	Oppose	Don’t know
Republican	67	20	12
Independent	17	69	14
Democrat	6	89	4

Views of protests, Black Lives Matter

Approval of protests over police violence against Black Americans declined from June to early August, prior to a police officer’s shooting Jacob Blake in Kenosha, but barely moved following the Kenosha shooting and protests, as shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Approval of protests against police shootings, June-October 2020

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know
6/14-18/20	61	36	2
8/4-9/20	48	48	3
8/30-9/3/20	47	48	4
9/30-10/4/20	46	49	4
10/21-25/20	50	45	4

Favorable views of the Black Lives Matter movement also declined from June to August, but has remained fairly stable since August, as shown in Table 21.

Table 21: Favorable or unfavorable view of Black Lives Matter movement, June-October 2020

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
6/14-18/20	59	27	6	5
8/4-9/20	49	37	10	5
8/30-9/3/20	49	37	8	5
9/30-10/4/20	46	40	8	5
10/21-25/20	47	39	7	5

Approval of Evers’ job performance and handling of coronavirus

In the new late-October poll, 50% approve and 43% disapprove of Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers’ job performance. In early October, 52% approved and 42% disapproved. The trend in overall approval of Evers since March is shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Gov. Evers job approval

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused
3/24-29/20	65	29	6	1
5/3-7/20	59	33	7	1
6/14-18/20	54	38	6	1
8/4-9/20	57	37	6	0
8/30-9/3/20	51	43	5	2
9/30-10/4/20	52	42	5	1
10/21-25/20	50	43	7	0

Evers’ handling of the coronavirus issue has 52% approval and 45% disapproval. This is a decline from three weeks ago, when 56% approved and 38% disapproved. The trend in approval and disapproval is shown in Table 23.

Table 23: Gov. Evers handling of coronavirus outbreak, approval

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused
3/24-29/20	76	17	7	1
5/3-7/20	64	32	4	1
6/14-18/20	58	37	4	1
8/4-9/20	61	35	4	0
8/30-9/3/20	57	38	4	1
9/30-10/4/20	56	38	5	1
10/21-25/20	52	45	3	0

Approval of how the Wisconsin legislature is handling its job

In October, 36% say they approve of the way the Wisconsin legislature is handling its job, while 50% say they disapprove. This is the first time since January 2019, when the legislature’s job approval was first asked, that more disapprove than approve. The full trend for this question is shown in Table 24.

Table 24: Wisconsin legislature’s job approval

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused
1/16-20/19	52	31	16	1
4/3-7/19	50	38	11	1
8/25-29/19	52	38	8	1
11/13-17/19	48	39	13	0
2/19-23/20	46	40	13	1
5/3-7/20	46	40	13	1
10/21-25/20	36	50	13	1

Views of the economy, past and future

Views of the direction of the economy have turned sharply down since February, with many more people saying the economy has gotten worse over the past year. However, respondents have a strongly positive outlook for the economy over the next 12 months. Tables 25 and 26 show the recent trends in these measures.

Table 25: Change in economy over past 12 months

Poll dates	Gotten better	Gotten worse	Stayed the same	Don’t know	Net
1/8-12/20	48	17	33	2	31
2/19-23/20	47	15	36	2	32
3/24-29/20	41	31	25	3	10
5/3-7/20	28	46	20	4	-18
6/14-18/20	27	50	19	4	-23
8/4-9/20	22	56	19	3	-34
8/30-9/3/20	25	51	19	3	-26
9/30-10/4/20	25	53	18	4	-28
10/21-25/20	24	54	20	2	-30

Table 26: Outlook for the economy over the next 12 months

Poll dates	Get better	Get worse	Stay the same	Don’t know	Net
1/8-12/20	33	23	37	6	10
2/19-23/20	36	21	37	7	15
3/24-29/20	44	34	13	8	10
5/3-7/20	45	31	16	7	14
6/14-18/20	50	19	24	6	31
8/4-9/20	45	23	21	11	21
8/30-9/3/20	48	18	21	13	30
9/30-10/4/20	43	18	25	14	25
10/21-25/20	45	13	22	20	33

Family financial situation

Table 27 shows the trend in family finances since January. In late October, the percentage living comfortably rose while the percentages just getting by or struggling declined.

Table 27: Family financial situation

Poll dates	Living comfortably	Just getting by	Struggling
1/8-12/20	63	28	8
2/19-23/20	62	29	8
3/24-29/20	59	30	10
5/3-7/20	61	28	9
6/14-18/20	61	31	6
8/4-9/20	63	28	8
8/30-9/3/20	60	32	8
9/30-10/4/20	60	30	9
10/21-25/20	67	26	6

Views of state officials

Tables 28-30 present the recent favorability ratings of elected officials in Wisconsin and the percentage of respondents who haven’t heard enough about them or say they don’t know.

Table 28: Evers recent favorability trend

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
1/8-12/20	45	37	14	3
2/19-23/20	43	40	12	4
3/24-29/20	54	28	11	6
5/3-7/20	50	36	7	5
6/14-18/20	54	37	7	2
8/4-9/20	52	35	9	4
8/30-9/3/20	47	41	9	2
9/30-10/4/20	47	40	9	3
10/21-25/20	47	43	8	2

Table 29: Sen. Tammy Baldwin recent favorability trend

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
1/8-12/20	44	40	13	2
2/19-23/20	43	40	13	3
3/24-29/20	40	39	16	4
5/3-7/20	45	37	14	3
6/14-18/20	40	38	19	3
8/4-9/20	43	36	17	3
8/30-9/3/20	42	35	19	3
9/30-10/4/20	41	35	20	3
10/21-25/20	44	36	15	4

Table 30: Sen. Ron Johnson recent favorability trend

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
1/8-12/20	39	29	28	3
2/19-23/20	37	34	24	5
3/24-29/20	35	32	29	4
5/3-7/20	38	34	23	5
6/14-18/20	35	32	29	3
8/4-9/20	33	35	27	4
8/30-9/3/20	32	36	28	5
9/30-10/4/20	35	31	27	7
10/21-25/20	38	36	23	3

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 806 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone, Oct. 21-25, 2020. The margin of error is +/-4.3 percentage points for the full sample. There are 749 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points.

The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 45% Republican, 44% Democratic and 9% independent. The partisan makeup of the sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 30% Republican, 29% Democratic and 40% percent independent.

Since January 2017, the long-term partisan balance, including those who lean to a party, in the Marquette poll has been 45% Republican and 45% Democratic, with 9% independent. Partisanship excluding those who lean has been 30% Republican and 29% Democratic, with 40% independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.