MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds that 41% of adults approve of the job the U.S. Supreme Court is doing, while 59% disapprove. In September, 43% approved and 57% disapproved. Approval of the Court has remained below 50% since March 2022, when it stood at 54%. While approval is up from the low point of 38% in July 2022, it has fluctuated in the low 40s percent range since then. The poll was completed before the Court released a Code of Conduct for Justices of the Supreme Court of the United States on November 13, 2023.

The trend in approval since 2020 is shown in Figure 1 and Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Figure 1: Supreme Court job approval

Table 1: Supreme Court job approval

Among adults

Poll dates	Approval
	Approve	Disapprove
11/2-7/23	41	59
9/18-25/23	43	57
7/7-12/23	45	55
5/8-18/23	41	59
3/13-22/23	44	56
1/9-20/23	47	53
11/15-22/22	44	56
9/7-14/22	40	60
7/5-12/22	38	61
5/9-19/22	44	55
3/14-24/22	54	45
1/10-21/22	52	46
11/1-10/21	54	46
9/7-16/21	49	50
7/16-26/21	60	39
9/8-15/20	66	33
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?

The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s national Supreme Court survey was conducted Nov. 2-7, 2023. The survey interviewed 1,010 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-4.2 percentage points.

Partisan and ideological views of the Court

Approval among Republicans of the Court’s job performance declined to 62% in November, down from 66% in September. Approval among independents also declined, standing at 23% and down from 33%, while among Democrats approval rose to 27% from 24% two months earlier. Approval by party identification of the Court’s job performance is shown in Table 2 for September and November. (Throughout this report, party identification includes independents who say they are closer to a party while “independents” separately listed here are those who say they are not closer to either party.)

Table 2: Approval of the Supreme Court’s job performance, by party identification, September and November 2023

Among adults

Party ID	Approval
	Approve	Disapprove
Nov. 2023
Total	41	59
Republican	62	38
Independent	23	77
Democrat	27	73
Sept. 2023
Total	43	57
Republican	66	34
Independent	33	67
Democrat	24	76
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, Sept. 18-25, 2023 & Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

Political ideology also structures opinion of the Court, at least as strongly as does partisanship. Table 3 shows approval in September and November by ideology.

Table 3: Approval of the Supreme Court’s job performance, by political ideology, September and November 2023

Among adults

Ideology	Approval
	Approve	Disapprove
Nov. 2023
Total	41	59
Conservative	65	35
Moderate	39	61
Liberal	13	87
Sept. 2023
Total	43	57
Conservative	70	30
Moderate	37	63
Liberal	15	85
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, Sept. 18-25, 2023 & Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?
Question: Generally speaking, how would you describe your political views?

Abortion and gun rights

In June 2022, the Supreme Court issued the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision, which overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling that had made abortion legal in all 50 states. The Court also ruled in 2022, in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. Bruen, that the Second Amendment protects an individual’s right to carry a handgun for self-defense outside the home. A substantial majority, 65%, say they oppose the Dobbs decision striking down Roe, with 35% favoring the decision. On the Bruen case, 67% favor the decision, while 33% are opposed to the ruling.

Table 4 shows the trend in opinion about the Dobbs decision. There has been very little change over the past year, with close to two-thirds opposed to the decision and about one-third in favor.

Table 4: Favor or oppose Dobbs decision striking down Roe v. Wade

Among adults

Poll dates	Favor or oppose Dobbs
	Favor	Oppose
11/2-7/23	35	65
9/18-25/23	36	64
7/7-12/23	38	62
5/8-18/23	35	65
3/13-22/23	33	67
1/9-20/23	35	64
11/15-22/22	33	66
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Those who agree with the Court’s rulings are more approving of the Court’s job performance than those who oppose the Court’s decisions. Table 5 shows how agreement or disagreement with Dobbs is related to approval within each partisan category, which makes an impact on approval of the Court apart from the role of partisanship alone. Republicans who oppose the Dobbs decision are considerably less approving of the Court than are their fellow partisans who favor the Dobbs decision. Similarly, independents who agree with the Court’s decision are more approving of the Court than those who oppose the decision, though both of these groups strongly disapprove of the Court’s job performance. Among Democrats, the small minority who favor the Dobbs decision are far more likely to approve of the Court than are Democrats opposed to the decision.

Table 5: Court approval by opinion of Dobbs, by party identification

Among adults

Opinion of Dobbs	Court approval
	Approve	Disapprove
Republican
Favor	73	27
Oppose	47	53
Independent
Favor	33	67
Oppose	19	81
Democrat
Favor	60	40
Oppose	21	79
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?
Question: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

Support for the ruling in Bruen has been similarly stable when asked in September and November, with just under two-thirds in favor of the ruling and one-third opposed, as shown in Table 6. (A differently worded question asked in 2022 found similar support for the decision among those who had heard of the ruling.)

Table 6: Favor or oppose Bruen decision on right to bear a gun outside the home

Among adults

Poll dates	Favor or oppose Bruen
	Favor	Oppose
11/2-7/23	67	33
9/18-25/23	64	36
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: In 2022, the Supreme Court ruled that, subject to some restrictions, the Second Amendment protects an individual’s right to carry a handgun for self-defense outside the home. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

As with Dobbs, those who agree with the decision in Bruen are more likely to approve of the Court’s job performance than are those who are opposed to the decision. This holds within each party as shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Court job performance approval by opinion of Bruen, by party identification

Among adults

Opinion of Bruen	Court approval
	Approve	Disapprove
Republican
Favor	66	34
Oppose	32	68
Independent
Favor	29	71
Oppose	11	89
Democrat
Favor	35	65
Oppose	19	81
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?
Question: In 2022, the Supreme Court ruled that, subject to some restrictions, the Second Amendment protects an individual’s right to carry a handgun for self-defense outside the home. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

Attention to news about the Court

As the Court began its annual term only last month, public attention to news about the Court is rather limited, as shown in Table 8. Only 15% say they have heard a lot about the Court in the last month, while 60% have heard a little and 25% have heard nothing at all. Those levels of attention are little changed since September.

Table 8: How much heard or read about U.S. Supreme Court in last month

Among adults

Poll dates	Amout heard or read
	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
11/2-7/23	15	60	25
9/18-25/23	17	61	22
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: Thinking about the last month only, how much have you heard or read about the U.S. Supreme Court?

Table 9 shows that Democrats are almost twice as likely as Republicans to say they’ve heard or read a lot about the Court in the past month. Independents pay an even lower amount of attention than Republicans, with almost half saying they’ve heard nothing at all about the Court in the past month.

Table 9: Amount heard about Supreme Court by party identification, Nov. 2023

Among adults

Party ID	Amount heard or read
	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
Total	15	60	25
Republican	12	66	22
Independent	4	50	46
Democrat	21	58	20
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Thinking about the last month only, how much have you heard or read about the U.S. Supreme Court?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

Recent news concerning the justices’ financial disclosures and related matters have raised attention to the ethical standards of the Court. Table 10 shows the trend since May in perception of the justices’ ethical standards.

Table 10: Honesty and ethical standards of U.S. Supreme Court justices

Among adults

Poll dates	Perceived honesty and ethical standards
	Very high/high	Average	Low/Very low
11/2-7/23	28	39	34
9/18-25/23	30	41	29
7/7-12/23	32	33	35
5/8-18/23	26	39	35
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: U.S. Supreme Court justices: Please tell me how you would rate the honesty and ethical standards of people in these different fields?

There are sharp partisan differences in perceptions of the Court’s ethical standards, as shown in Table 11. Republicans are nearly twice as likely as Democrats to say that the Court has high or very high ethical standards. Notably it is independents who are most likely to say the Court has low or very low standards.

Table 11: Honesty and ethical standards of U.S. Supreme Court justices, by party identification

Among adults

Party ID	Ethical standards
	Very high/high	Average	Low/Very low
Total	28	39	34
Republican	39	40	21
Independent	17	38	46
Democrat	20	38	42
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: How would you rate the honesty and ethical standards of U.S. Supreme Court justices?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

While Democrats pay more attention to the Court than do Republicans or independents, those Republicans and independents who pay more attention rate the Court’s ethical standards higher than do their co-partisans who pay less attention. In contrast, Democrats who are most attentive are more likely to rate the Court’s ethical standards low or very low compared to those who pay less attention. Table 12 shows how views of ethical standards vary with attention to the Court by party.

Table 12: Court ethics by attention to Court news and by party identification

Among adults

Court attention	Ethical standards
	Very high/high	Average	Low/Very low
Republican
A lot	44	38	18
A little	40	41	18
Nothing at all	32	36	32
Independent
A lot	27	25	48
A little	21	47	32
Nothing at all	12	28	60
Democrat
A lot	24	30	46
A little	19	40	42
Nothing at all	22	40	38
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: How would you rate the honesty and ethical standards of U.S. Supreme Court justices?
Question: Thinking about the last month only, how much have you heard or read about the U.S. Supreme Court?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

Awareness of the makeup of the Court, in terms of which party’s presidents have appointed a majority of justices, is little changed since September, with 30% saying Republican presidents definitely had appointed a majority of justices, 43% saying Republican presidents had probably done so, and 26% believing a majority had definitely or probably been appointed by Democrats. The full trend is shown in Table 13. The percentage correctly saying Republican presidents definitely appointed a majority has fluctuated modestly after a small rise following the appointment of Justice Amy Coney Barrett in the fall of 2020, which created a 6-3 majority of justices appointed by Republican presidents.

Table 13: Majority of Court appointed by which party’s presidents

Among adults

Poll dates	Majority appointed by
	Definitely/Probably Dem majority	Probably Rep majority	Definitely Rep majority
11/2-7/23	26	43	30
9/18-25/23	26	42	32
7/7-12/23	22	42	36
5/8-18/23	29	41	30
3/13-22/23	27	41	31
1/9-20/23	23	41	36
11/15-22/22	24	40	35
9/7-14/22	22	40	37
7/5-12/22	20	40	40
5/9-19/22	31	39	31
3/14-24/22	28	47	24
1/10-21/22	23	44	33
11/1-10/21	28	44	28
9/7-16/21	25	46	29
7/16-26/21	24	45	30
9/8-15/20	28	51	21
9/3-13/19	27	53	19
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: What is your guess as to whether a majority of the current U.S. Supreme Court justices were appointed by Democratic or Republican presidents?

Republicans and independents are more likely to say that Democrats have appointed a majority on the Court, while Democrats are the most likely to say there is definitely a Republican-appointed majority on the Court, as shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Majority of U.S. Supreme Court justices appointed by which party, by party identification

Among adults

Party ID	Majority appointed by which party
	Definitely/Probably Dem majority	Probably Rep majority	Definitely Rep majority
Total	26	43	30
Republican	32	39	29
Independent	37	45	18
Democrat	17	47	35
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: What is your guess as to whether a majority of the current U.S. Supreme Court justices were appointed by Democratic or Republican presidents?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

Confidence in institutions

Confidence in several institutions is summarized in Table 15. Juries in criminal cases draw the highest public confidence of the six institutions surveyed and the lowest percentage of respondents saying they have little or no confidence. “Your state Supreme court” has the next highest confidence ratings. The U.S. Supreme Court and U.S. Department of Justice have very similar ratings, followed by the presidency and Congress.

Table 15: Confidence in institutions

Among adults

Institution	Confidence
	Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
Juries that decide criminal cases	36	42	22
Your state Supreme court	30	40	30
U.S. Supreme Court	28	36	36
The U.S. Department of Justice	27	38	35
The presidency	26	32	42
Congress	10	37	53
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one?

Confidence in the Court as an institution remained stable from September to November, with 28% expressing a great deal or a lot of confidence, 36% some confidence, and 36% saying they have little or no confidence in the Court. The full trend is shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Confidence in the U.S. Supreme Court

Among adults

Poll dates	Confidence
	Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
11/2-7/23	28	36	36
9/18-25/23	28	37	35
7/7-12/23	31	32	37
5/8-18/23	25	36	39
3/13-22/23	28	40	32
1/9-20/23	31	38	31
11/15-22/22	30	36	34
9/7-14/22	30	34	36
7/5-12/22	28	28	44
9/8-15/20	39	45	16
9/3-13/19	37	42	20
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? … The U.S. Supreme Court

As with approval of job performance, Republicans have more confidence in the Supreme Court than do Democrats, while independents are especially low in confidence, as shown in Table 17.

Table 17: Confidence in the U.S. Supreme Court, by party identification

Among adults

Party ID	Confidence
	Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
Total	28	36	36
Republican	37	38	25
Independent	17	35	49
Democrat	23	34	44
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? … The U.S. Supreme Court
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

A general lack of trust in the federal government contributes to low confidence in the Court specifically. Table 18 shows how confidence in the Court declines as trust declines.

Table 18: Confidence in the U.S. Supreme Court by general trust in federal government

Among adults

Trust in government	Confidence
	Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
Total	28	36	36
Always/Most of the time	47	34	20
Only some of the time	26	41	34
Never	17	21	63
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? … The U.S. Supreme Court
Question: How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

Trust in government has strong effects within each party, as shown in Table 19. Confidence in the court declines as trust declines among Republicans, independents, and Democrats alike. Republicans have more confidence in the Court than do Democrats with the same levels of trust in government, with independents falling in between the partisans at each level of trust. This table combines the Marquette Law School Poll’s national surveys from July, September, and November in order to provide enough cases in each of the subgroups for analysis.

Table 19: Confidence in the U.S. Supreme Court by trust in government and by party identification

Among adults, combined July, September, and November Marquette national polls

Trust in government	Confidence
	Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
Republican
Always/Most of the time	57	32	12
Only some of the time	46	39	15
Never	29	33	37
Independent
Always/Most of the time	47	41	12
Only some of the time	15	47	38
Never	8	14	79
Democrat
Always/Most of the time	36	31	34
Only some of the time	14	35	51
Never	5	15	80
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, July, September and November 20233
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? … The U.S. Supreme Court
Question: How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

While confidence in juries that decide criminal cases has the highest level of the six institutions rated in this survey, the levels of confidence decreased slightly from September when 40% had a great deal or a lot of confidence, 41% some confidence, and 19% had little or no confidence.

Confidence in juries declined among Republicans and independents from September to November, while it held steady among Democrats, as shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Confidence in juries in criminal cases, by party identification

Among adults

Party ID	Confidence
	Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
Republican
11/2-7/23	28	46	26
9/18-25/23	37	44	19
Independent
11/2-7/23	27	39	34
9/18-25/23	30	47	23
Democrat
11/2-7/23	46	39	15
9/18-25/23	46	36	18
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, Sept. 18-25, 2023 & Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? … Juries that decide guilt or innocence in criminal cases
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

The Department of Justice (DOJ) has become the subject of partisan debate over its handling of a number of prosecutions and investigations in recent years. Overall, 27% say they have a great deal or a lot of confidence in the DOJ, while 38% say they have some confidence and a substantial 35% say they have little or no confidence. In September, 30% had a great deal or a lot of confidence in the DOJ, 35% had some, and 35% had little or no confidence.

Partisan differences and the trends since July are shown in Table 21. Republicans and independents have substantially less confidence in the DOJ than do Democrats.

Table 21: Confidence in U.S. Department of Justice, by party identification

Among adults

Party ID	Confidence
	Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
Republican
11/2-7/23	14	38	47
9/18-25/23	17	33	51
7/7-12/23	13	28	58
Independent
11/2-7/23	14	37	50
9/18-25/23	19	52	29
7/7-12/23	18	33	49
Democrat
11/2-7/23	43	38	19
9/18-25/23	45	32	23
7/7-12/23	40	41	20
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, July, September, November 2023
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? … The U.S. Department of Justice
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

In November, 30% said they had a great deal or a lot of confidence in their state Supreme Court, 40% had some confidence, and 30% had little or no confidence. State courts draw modestly greater confidence from the survey respondents than does the U.S. Supreme Court.

Unlike the U.S. Supreme Court, there is little partisan divide in confidence in state Supreme Courts in the aggregate. Republicans and Democrats have very similar levels of confidence in their state Supreme Courts, though independents are much less confident than either partisan group, as shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Confidence in state Supreme Court, by party identification

Among adults

Party ID	Confidence
	Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
Total	30	40	30
Republican	31	41	27
Independent	12	38	50
Democrat	34	40	26
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? … Your state Supreme Court or highest court in your state
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

Perceived ideology of the U.S. Supreme Court

Public perception of the ideology of the U.S. Supreme Court has shifted in a conservative direction since 2019, as shown in Table 23. In September 2019, 38% of the public saw the Court as very or somewhat conservative. In the current poll, 56% see the Court that way. Over this same period, the percent saying the Court is moderate has declined from 50% to 32%. Few people—12%—see the Court as liberal or very liberal.

Table 23: Perceived ideology of the U.S. Supreme Court

Among adults

Poll dates	Perceived ideology
	Very conservative	Somewhat conservative	Moderate	Somewhat liberal	Very liberal
11/2-7/23	21	35	32	7	5
9/18-25/23	20	37	32	7	3
7/7-12/23	27	35	28	7	3
5/8-18/23	24	33	30	10	3
3/13-22/23	23	35	34	6	2
1/9-20/23	22	37	31	8	2
11/15-22/22	25	36	32	6	2
9/7-14/22	29	35	27	5	3
7/5-12/22	34	33	21	7	3
5/9-19/22	23	33	34	8	2
3/14-24/22	15	37	36	10	2
1/10-21/22	17	38	35	8	2
11/1-10/21	15	35	39	8	1
9/7-16/21	16	35	40	7	2
7/16-26/21	13	37	42	6	1
9/8-15/20	5	30	54	9	2
9/3-13/19	5	33	50	9	3
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: In general, would you describe each of the following as…?… The U.S. Supreme Court.

Since 2019, there has been an increase in the percentage of the public who think the justices’ decisions are motivated by politics, rising from 35% in 2019 to 55% in the current poll. There has been a sharp increase beginning in January 2022 when there was a 17-percentage-point jump from the survey prior. The full trend is shown in Table 24.

Table 24: Are justices’ decisions motivated mainly by the law or mainly by politics

Among adults

Poll dates	Perceived motivation
	Mainly politics	Mainly the law
11/2-7/23	55	45
9/18-25/23	52	48
7/7-12/23	58	42
1/9-20/23	49	51
7/5-12/22	52	48
1/10-21/22	47	53
11/1-10/21	30	70
9/7-16/21	39	61
7/16-26/21	29	71
9/8-15/20	37	62
9/3-13/19	35	64
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: In general, what most often motivates Supreme Court justices’ decisions?

Ideological views also structure reaction to individual decisions of the Court. Some decisions are more popular with all respondents, and some less popular, but reaction follows ideological lines for each of five major decisions of recent years.

Table 25 shows overall reaction to each decision. Four of the five decisions have a majority in favor while the decision overturning Roe v. Wade has a majority opposed.

Table 25: Favor or oppose recent major Court decisions

Among adults

Decision	Favor or oppose
	Favor	Oppose
Same-sex marriage	65	35
LGBT anti-discrimination protection	82	18
Overturn Roe v. Wade	35	65
Guns outside home	67	33
Ban use of race in college admissions	79	21
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: In 2015, the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
Question: In 2020, the Supreme Court ruled that a federal civil rights law protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
Question: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
Question: In 2022, the Supreme Court ruled that, subject to some restrictions, the Second Amendment protects an individual’s right to carry a handgun for self-defense outside the home. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
Question: In 2023, the Supreme Court ruled that colleges cannot use race as a factor in deciding which applicants to admit. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Table 26 shows the percentage favoring each of those decisions by respondent ideology. Liberals are more in favor of two conventionally liberal decisions, on same-sex marriage and anti-discrimination protection for LGBT workers, while conservatives are less so. Conservatives are more in favor for conventionally conservative decisions on abortion, guns outside the home, and banning the use of race in college admissions, while liberals are less so.

Table 26: Favor recent Court decisions, by ideology

Adults

Ideology	Percentage favoring decision
	Same-sex marriage	LGBT anti-discrimination protection	Overturn Roe v. Wade	Guns outside home	Ban use of race in admissions
Conservative	43	72	64	87	93
Moderate	68	85	24	67	82
Liberal	89	90	10	42	58
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Generally speaking, how would you describe your political views?

Like ideology, partisanship structures reaction to decisions, as shown in Table 27.

Table 27: Favor recent Court decisions, by party identification

Adults

Party ID	Percentage favoring decision
	Same-sex marriage	LGBT anti-discrimination protection	Overturn Roe v. Wade	Guns outside home	Ban use of race in admissions
Republican	49	72	57	88	92
Independent	64	75	25	65	79
Democrat	82	94	15	48	67
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted Nov. 2-7, 2023, interviewing 1,010 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.2 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available at the Marquette Law School Poll website. Some items from this survey are held for later release.

The wording of questions about previous decisions include:

Opinion of same-sex marriage decision:

• In 2015, the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Opinion of decision on anti-discrimination law protecting gay and transgender employees

• In 2020, the Supreme Court ruled that a federal civil rights law protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Opinion of Dobbs decision, striking down Roe v. Wade

• In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Opinion of decision concerning possession of guns outside the home

• In 2022, the Supreme Court ruled that, subject to some restrictions, the Second Amendment protects an individual’s right to carry a handgun for self-defense outside the home. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Opinion of decision banning use of race in college admissions

In 2023, the Supreme Court ruled that colleges cannot use race as a factor in deciding which applicants to admit. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin registered voters finds Democratic President Joe Biden is the choice of 50% and former Republican President Donald Trump the choice of 48% of registered voters in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup looking to the November 2024 election for president. But Biden trails Republican candidates Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in hypothetical matchups. DeSantis receives 50% to Biden’s 48%, while Haley holds a larger lead, 53% to Biden’s 44%. These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked to choose one of the candidates.

Table 1 shows the Biden vs. Trump results by party identification. Biden receives a higher share of Democratic votes than does Trump among Republicans, while independents split evenly. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages.)

Table 1: Vote for Biden or Trump

Among registered voters

Party ID	Vote choice
	Donald Trump	Joe Biden	Haven’t decided/Neither
Total	48	50	1
Republican	88	10	1
Independent	47	47	4
Democrat	6	94	0
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question for those initially answering “Haven’t decided”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?

In the Biden-DeSantis matchup in Table 2, Republicans back DeSantis more strongly than they do Trump, while independents support DeSantis over Biden. Democratic support for Biden is little changed.

Table 2: Vote for Biden or DeSantis

Among registered voters

Party ID	Vote choice
	Ron DeSantis	Joe Biden	Haven’t decided
Total	50	48	1
Republican	91	7	2
Independent	58	37	5
Democrat	5	94	0
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Ron DeSantis or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question for those initially answering “Haven’t decided”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for DeSantis?

Haley runs especially well against Biden in this survey, as shown in Table 3, winning a larger share of Republicans than DeSantis or Trump and matching DeSantis’ share of independent votes. She also wins 8% of Democratic voters, a larger share than does DeSantis or Trump.

Table 3: Vote for Biden or Haley

Among registered voters

Party ID	Vote choice
	Nikki Haley	Joe Biden	Haven’t decided
Total	53	44	3
Republican	94	4	2
Independent	58	31	11
Democrat	8	90	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Nikki Haley or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question for those initially answering “Haven’t decided”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Haley?

This Marquette Law School Poll was conducted from Oct. 26 through Nov. 2, 2023, interviewing 908 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. The sample includes 402 Republicans and independents who lean Republican who were asked about their preferences in the Republican presidential primary, with a margin of error of +/-6.8 percentage points.

Favorability

Haley’s strong showing comes despite her being the least well-known of the four candidates included in this poll. Among all registered voters, all four candidates—Biden, Trump, DeSantis, and Haley—are seen more unfavorably than favorably. Table 4 shows favorability to each. Trump has the highest net unfavorable opinion (favorable views minus unfavorable views), followed by Biden, DeSantis, and Haley, who is only slightly net negative. Haley has the highest percentage who say they haven’t heard enough about her or don’t know how they feel about her.

Table 4: Favorability to Biden, Trump, DeSantis, and Haley

Among registered voters

Candidate	Favorability
	Net favorable	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
Joe Biden	-14	42	56	2	0
Donald Trump	-24	37	61	2	0
Ron DeSantis	-12	37	49	13	0
Nikki Haley	-3	31	34	33	2
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

A significant share of respondents view both Biden and Trump unfavorably, 18%, while a smaller 12% view both Biden and DeSantis unfavorably, as do 12% for Biden and Haley.

A deeper look at votes

Biden vs. Trump, by 2020 vote

Voters were asked to recall whom they voted for in 2020, if they voted that year. For a rematch of Biden and Trump, there is strong stability of vote choice, with only 3% of Trump voters switching to Biden, 4% of Biden voters switching to Trump, and a handful who said they were undecided or who declined to answer, as shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Vote for Biden or Trump, by 2020 vote

Among registered voters who voted in 2020

2020 Vote	Vote choice in 2024
	Donald Trump	Joe Biden	Haven’t decided/Neither	Refused
Donald Trump	95	3	0	1
Joe Biden	4	94	2	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question for those initially answering “Haven’t decided”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
Question: Which presidential candidate did you vote for in 2020?

Comparing 2020 vote to the Biden vs. DeSantis matchup in Table 6 suggests that DeSantis holds a higher percentage of Trump voters than does Trump himself, while also winning over 9% of Biden 2020 voters.

Table 6: Vote for Biden or DeSantis, by 2020 vote

Among registered voters who voted in 2020

2020 Vote	Vote choice in 2024
	Ron DeSantis	Joe Biden	Haven’t decided	Refused
Donald Trump	97	3	0	0
Joe Biden	9	89	2	0
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Ron DeSantis or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question for those initially answering “Haven’t decided”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for DeSantis?
Question: Which presidential candidate did you vote for in 2020?

Haley does especially well by winning over 15% of 2020 Biden voters and holding 96% of Trump 2020 voters, as shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Vote for Biden or Haley, by 2020 vote

Among registered voters who voted in 2020

2020 Vote	Vote choice in 2024
	Nikki Haley	Joe Biden	Haven’t decided	Refused
Donald Trump	96	3	1	0
Joe Biden	15	81	4	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Nikki Haley or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question for those initially answering “Haven’t decided”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Haley?
Question: Which presidential candidate did you vote for in 2020?

Choice if “had to choose” among initially undecided voters

When initially asked their vote choice between Biden and Trump, 45% picked Biden and 42% chose Trump, while 12% said they were undecided. Table 8 shows the choices of the initially undecided voters when pushed to choose between Biden and Trump. These voters split very evenly between Biden and Trump.

Table 8: Vote if “had to choose,” among those initially undecided between Biden and Trump

Among registered voters who are undecided between Biden and Trump

Biden v Trump	If had to choose
	Definitely Trump	Probably Trump	Probably Biden	Definitely Biden	Don’t know	Refused
Undecided Biden or Trump	6	40	39	6	7	3
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?

When initially asked their vote choice between Biden and DeSantis, 43% picked Biden and 42% chose DeSantis, while 15% said they were undecided. Table 9 shows the choices of these initially undecided voters when pushed to choose between Biden and DeSantis. These voters favor DeSantis over Biden, though few are “definite” in their preferences.

Table 9: Vote if “had to choose,” among those undecided between Biden and DeSantis

Among registered voters who are undecided between Biden and DeSantis

Biden v DeSantis	If had to choose
	Definitely DeSantis	Probably DeSantis	Probably Biden	Definitely Biden	Don’t know	Refused
Undecided Biden or Trump	7	49	34	0	9	0
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for DeSantis?

When initially asked their vote choice between Biden and Haley, 36% picked Biden and 41% chose Haley, while 22% said they were undecided. Table 10 shows the choices of these initially undecided voters when pushed to choose between Biden and Haley. Haley picks up a majority of these undecided voters, with some remaining undecided.

Table 10: Vote if “had to choose,” among those undecided between Biden and Haley

Among registered voters who are undecided between Biden and Haley

Biden v Haley	If had to choose
	Definitely Haley	Probably Haley	Probably Biden	Definitely Biden	Don’t know	Refused
Undecided Biden or Trump	8	45	35	0	11	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Haley?

Biden job approval and vote

Biden’s job approval stands at 42% with disapproval at 57%. In June, 45% approved and 53% disapproved.

Table 11 shows vote choice between Biden and Trump by Biden job approval. Biden wins very large majorities of those who approve either strongly or somewhat of how he is doing his job, but he also wins a majority of those who somewhat disapprove of his handling of his job. This provides him a boost against Trump. Trump wins more than 90% of the strongly disapprove group, as does each of the other Republican candidates.

Table 11: Biden vs. Trump vote, by Biden job approval

Among registered voters

Biden job approval	Vote
	Donald Trump	Joe Biden	Haven’t decided/Neither
Total	48	50	1
Strongly approve	0	100	0
Somewhat approve	4	94	1
Somewhat disapprove	38	57	3
Strongly disapprove	93	5	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question for those initially answering “Haven’t decided”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Table 12 shows vote choice between Biden and DeSantis by Biden job approval. Biden continues to win big majorities from both categories of approval, but he holds a smaller majority among somewhat disapproving voters than he would win against Trump.

Table 12: Biden vs. DeSantis vote, by Biden job approval

Among registered voters

Biden job approval	Vote
	Ron DeSantis	Joe Biden	Haven’t decided
Total	50	48	1
Strongly approve	0	98	2
Somewhat approve	10	87	3
Somewhat disapprove	48	52	1
Strongly disapprove	94	5	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Ron DeSantis or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question for those initially answering “Haven’t decided”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for DeSantis?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Table 13 shows vote choice between Biden and Haley by Biden job approval. Haley draws more voters from among Biden’s “somewhat approve” category and takes a substantial majority from the “somewhat disapprove” category—the only Republican candidate to do so.

Table 13: Biden vs. Haley vote, by Biden job approval

Among registered voters

Biden job approval	Vote
	Nikki Haley	Joe Biden	Haven’t decided
Total	53	44	3
Strongly approve	0	97	3
Somewhat approve	20	75	3
Somewhat disapprove	54	41	5
Strongly disapprove	93	6	2
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Nikki Haley or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question for those initially answering “Haven’t decided”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Haley?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Possible 3rd party candidates

The possibility of independent candidacies by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and by Cornel West has raised questions about their potential electoral strength and which of the major party candidates might lose more support to an independent candidate.

As the tables below show, Kennedy is much better liked by Republicans than by Democrats, and Republicans are much more likely to say they would definitely or probably vote for him if he were on the ballot in November. In contrast, a large proportion of Democrats say they would definitely not vote for Kennedy. Substantial proportions of independents and those undecided between the major party candidates say they might vote for Kennedy.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. favorability and vote support

Kennedy is viewed favorably by 31%, and unfavorably by 39%, while 30% say they haven’t heard enough about him to have an opinion. Table 14 shows favorability to Kennedy by party identification. Kennedy is viewed much more favorably among Republicans than among Democrats, with independents less favorable than Republicans and considerably more likely to say they haven’t heard enough about Kennedy.

Table 14: Kennedy favorability, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Favorability
	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
Total	31	39	30	1
Republican	48	21	29	2
Independent	34	26	40	0
Democrat	11	61	27	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Robert F. Kennedy Jr or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

If Kennedy were to be included on the November ballot, 5% say they would definitely vote for him, 23% would probably vote for him, 29% would probably not vote for him, and 39% would definitely not vote for him. Table 15 shows potential support for Kennedy by party identification. Less than 10% of any partisan group say they would definitely vote for Kennedy, but 30% of Republicans and 36% of independents say they would probably vote for him. Only 4% of Democrats would definitely support Kennedy and 13% would probably support him.

Table 15: Consider voting for Kennedy, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Vote for Kennedy
	Definitely vote for Kennedy	Probably vote for Kennedy	Probably not vote for Kennedy	Definitely not vote for Kennedy	Don’t know
Total	5	23	29	39	3
Republican	6	30	37	25	3
Independent	8	36	26	22	6
Democrat	4	13	23	60	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the presidential ballot as an independent candidate, how likely would you be to vote for him instead of the Democratic or Republican candidates?

Table 16 shows potential vote for Kennedy by initial vote between Biden and Trump (with initial “Haven’t decided voters” listed separately in this table). Kennedy draws more “definite” and “probably” support from Trump voters than from Biden voters, while those undecided show a higher inclination to consider Kennedy. Few, however, are definite in their support for Kennedy.

Table 16: Consider voting for Kennedy, by initial Biden-Trump choice

Among registered voters

Initial Biden-Trump vote	Vote for Kennedy
	Definitely vote for Kennedy	Probably vote for Kennedy	Probably not vote for Kennedy	Definitely not vote for Kennedy	Don’t know
Total	5	23	29	39	3
Donald Trump	6	29	38	24	3
Joe Biden	3	14	21	60	2
Haven’t decided	11	33	33	20	3
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the presidential ballot as an independent candidate, how likely would you be to vote for him instead of the Democratic or Republican candidates?

Table 17 shows Kennedy support by Biden vs. DeSantis initial vote choice. The results are similar to those for the Biden vs. Trump table above, with Kennedy appearing more attractive to DeSantis voters than to Biden voters, while most attractive to those who are initially undecided between Biden and DeSantis.

Table 17: Consider voting for Kennedy, by initial Biden-DeSantis choice

Among registered voters

Biden-DeSantis vote	Vote for Kennedy
	Definitely vote for Kennedy	Probably vote for Kennedy	Probably not vote for Kennedy	Definitely not vote for Kennedy	Don’t know
Total	5	23	29	39	3
Ron DeSantis	5	29	36	27	2
Joe Biden	4	11	22	62	1
Haven’t decided	11	43	30	10	7
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the presidential ballot as an independent candidate, how likely would you be to vote for him instead of the Democratic or Republican candidates?

Possible support for Kennedy by initial choice between Biden and Haley is shown in Table 18. The results are also similar to those for DeSantis and Trump, with Haley voters more likely to consider Kennedy than are Biden voters.

Table 18: Consider voting for Kennedy, by initial Biden-Haley choice

Among registered voters

Biden-Haley vote	Vote for Kennedy
	Definitely vote for Kennedy	Probably vote for Kennedy	Probably not vote for Kennedy	Definitely not vote for Kennedy	Don’t know
Total	5	23	29	39	3
Nikki Haley	6	29	33	29	2
Joe Biden	2	9	24	64	1
Haven’t decided	8	36	31	20	5
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the presidential ballot as an independent candidate, how likely would you be to vote for him instead of the Democratic or Republican candidates?

Cornel West favorability

West is less well known than Kennedy, with 69% saying they haven’t heard enough about West to have an opinion. There is very little variation in favorability to West across party identification categories, as shown in Table 19.

Table 19: West favorability, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Favorability
	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
Total	6	20	69	5
Republican	6	21	68	6
Independent	8	14	71	7
Democrat	6	21	69	4
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Cornel West, or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Perceptions of Biden and Trump

Table 20 shows whether Biden or Trump is thought to do a better job on six issues. Trump is seen as better on immigration and border security, the economy, and, to a smaller degree, foreign relations. Biden is seen as slightly better on Medicare and Social Security, with a larger advantage on abortion policy and especially on climate change.

A substantial percentage say both candidates would be about the same or that neither would be good on each issue. These voters could change their minds over the course of the campaign, providing an opportunity for change in these perceptions.

Table 20: Which candidate would do a better job on issues

Among registered voters

Issue	Who better
	Biden	Trump	Both about the same	Neither good	Don’t know
Immigration and border security	30	50	7	13	0
The economy	33	50	8	9	0
Foreign relations	39	44	5	12	0
Medicare and Social Security	41	37	12	10	1
Abortion policy	43	34	9	14	0
Climate change	45	28	10	16	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Do you think Joe Biden or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues, they are both about the same or would neither be good on the issue?

Table 21 shows opinions on how well various phrases describe Biden and Trump. Biden particularly is seen as “too old to be president” compared to those who see Trump as too old. The column “Net describes” is the percent saying this describes the candidate very or somewhat well, minus the percent saying it does so not too well or not at all well. On age, a net 55% say this describes Biden, while a net 9% say this describes Trump.

On “shares your values,” slightly more say this describes Trump very well than Biden, but more are emphatic that this does not describe Trump for them than is the case for Biden. The net figure shows a small advantage to Biden over Trump, though more say each candidate does not share their values.

Corruption charges have been leveled against both candidates, but more people think “has behaved corruptly” does not describe Biden than think it does, while the “net” for Trump is +35, showing 35% more think this describes him than think this does not describe Trump.

On their records of accomplishment as president, Trump has a net of 0, showing equal numbers of people think “a strong record of accomplishment” describes him and think this does not describe him. For Biden, the net score is -17, showing more people don’t see a record of accomplishment by Biden than think he does have such a record.

Table 21: How well does this phrase describe Biden or Trump

Among registered voters

Issue	How well phrase describes
	Net describes	Very well	Somewhat well	Not too well	Not at all well
Is too old to be president
Biden	55	55	22	11	11
Trump	9	25	29	24	21
Shares your values
Biden	-8	18	28	15	39
Trump	-16	22	20	11	47
Has behaved corruptly
Biden	-5	31	16	16	36
Trump	35	50	17	12	20
Strong record of accomplishments as president
Biden	-17	20	21	18	40
Trump	0	33	17	15	35
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Joe Biden)(Donald Trump)?
“Net describes” column is ‘very well’ plus ‘somewhat well’ minus ‘not too well’ minus ‘not at all well’

Republican primary

Trump leads DeSantis in the GOP primary, with Haley in third place. Since June, Trump and Haley have gained support while DeSantis has declined substantially. Former Vice President Mike Pence suspended his campaign while the survey was being conducted. No candidate other than Trump, DeSantis, and Haley receives more than 3% support. Table 22 shows the full set of GOP primary preferences.

Table 22: Republican primary vote choice

Among Republican registered voters

Primary choice	Survey wave
	10/26-11/2/23	6/8-13/23
Donald Trump	38	31
Ron DeSantis	18	30
Nikki Haley	11	3
Vivek Ramaswamy	3	3
Mike Pence	3	6
Chris Christie	1	1
Tim Scott	1	5
Doug Burgum	1	0
Asa Hutchinson	0	0
Larry Elder	0	0
Haven’t decided	24	21
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Here are some candidates for the Republican presidential nomination. If the primary were today, whom would you vote for or haven’t you decided?
Note: Mike Pence suspended his campaign while the survey was being conducted.

Favorability of Trump, DeSantis, and Haley among Republican registered voters

Table 23 shows favorability to the three leading Republican candidates among Republican registered voters. All three candidates are viewed more favorably than unfavorably among Republican voters, though it is notable that DeSantis and especially Haley are still not universally known.

Table 23: Favorability to Trump, DeSantis and Haley among Republicans

Among Republican registered voters

Candidate	Favorability
	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
Donald Trump	69	28	3	0
Ron DeSantis	73	15	11	1
Nikki Haley	54	18	27	2
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Wisconsin topics

Right direction or wrong track

A majority of registered voters (62%) say the state is on the wrong track, while 36% say it is headed in the right direction. A slight majority of Democrats see the state headed in the right direction, while large majorities of independents and Republicans say the state is on the wrong track, as shown in Table 24.

Table 24: Right direction or wrong track by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Direction of the state
	Right direction	Wrong track
Total	36	62
Republican	19	79
Independent	31	69
Democrat	54	43
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?

Approval of governor, legislature, and state Supreme Court

Table 25 shows the approval ratings for Gov. Tony Evers, the Wisconsin legislature, and the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Evers’ approval is 53% and disapproval is 46%. In June, Evers’ approval was 57% and disapproval was 39%. The legislature and state Supreme Court were not measured in June.

Table 25: Approval of governor, the legislature, and state Supreme Court

Among registered voters

Approval of:	Approval
	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know
Tony Evers	53	46	2
The Wisconsin legislature	40	57	3
The Wisconsin state Supreme Court	51	43	5
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Wisconsin legislature is handling its job?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Wisconsin state Supreme Court is handling its job?

Favorability of state elected officials

Favorability ratings of Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Sen. Ron Johnson, Evers, and State Assembly Speaker Robin Vos are shown in Table 26. Vos is far less known statewide than are the others.

Table 26: Favorability to state elected officials

Among registered voters

Elected official	Favorability
	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
Tammy Baldwin	41	43	15	1
Ron Johnson	40	50	10	1
Tony Evers	50	42	7	1
Robin Vos	16	36	46	2
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Supreme Court elections, redistricting and impeachment

Wisconsin Supreme Court election races have become much more partisan and competitive in recent years. A large majority of registered voters, 87%, say they prefer a system with elected state Supreme Court justices, while 12% would prefer to have appointed Supreme Court justices. Table 27 shows preference for election or appointment by party identification. There are small party differences, with large majorities favoring elected justices in each partisan group.

Table 27: Prefer elected or appointed state Supreme Court justices

Among registered voters

Party ID	Preference
	Better to have justices be elected	Better to have justices be appointed	Don’t know
Total	87	12	1
Republican	84	14	2
Independent	89	10	0
Democrat	90	10	0
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Some states appoint state Supreme Court justices, and other states elect them. Do you think it is better to have state Supreme Court justices appointed or to have justices elected?

A similar majority of respondents, 80%, say that judicial candidates should talk about issues so voters know where they stand, while 19% say candidates should avoid talking about issues to avoid seeming to prejudge issues that might come before them. These results are shown by party in Table 28

Table 28: Should judicial candidates talk about issues during campaigns

Among registered voters

Party ID	Preference
	Discuss issues	Avoid discussing issues
Total	80	19
Republican	71	29
Independent	80	19
Democrat	90	10
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Should judicial candidates discuss during campaigns issues likely to come before them if elected so voters know what the candidates stand for, or should they avoid talking about such issues in order not to seem to be pre-judging the issues?

A case currently before the state Supreme Court could result in redrawing state legislative districts before the 2024 elections. A slight majority, 51%, say the current maps should remain in place until the next scheduled redistricting in 2031, while 45% want the maps redrawn now, and 4% say they don’t know. Opinion on this issue divides strongly along partisan lines, as shown in Table 29.

Table 29: Opinion on redistricting legislature now or in 2031

Among registered voters

Party ID	Preference
	Redraw district maps	Keep maps in place	Don’t know
Total	45	51	4
Republican	19	76	4
Independent	42	55	3
Democrat	73	23	4
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: A case currently before the state Supreme Court could require maps of the legislative districts for the state Senate and Assembly to be redrawn for upcoming elections. Do you favor redrawing the district maps or should the maps created prior to the 2022 elections remain in place until the next scheduled redistricting in 2031?

Earlier in the fall Republican legislators discussed the possibility of impeaching newly elected state Supreme Court Justice Janet Protasiewicz, though they have not moved forward with such an action. Among registered voters, 31% have heard a lot about a possible impeachment, 39% have heard a little, and 29% have heard nothing at all about this. Table 30 shows this by party, with Democrats more than twice as likely as Republicans to have heard a lot about a possible impeachment.

Table 30: How much have you heard about possible impeachment of Justice Protasiewicz

Among registered voters

Party ID	Amount heard or read
	A lot	A little	Nothing at all	Don’t know
Total	31	39	29	1
Republican	20	44	34	1
Independent	20	45	35	0
Democrat	46	32	23	0
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: How much have you heard or read about calls by some Republican legislators to consider impeaching state Supreme Court Justice Janet Protasiewicz?

Aid to Ukraine and Israel and U.S. role in the world

In Wisconsin, 62% think it is better for the country if the U.S. plays an active role in world affairs, while 36% say it would be better to stay out of world affairs. Table 31 shows how these views differ by party identification. Independents are most likely to say the U.S. should stay out of world affairs. A small majority of Republicans say the U.S. should play an active part in the world, while 75% of Democrats favor an active role in the world.

Table 31: Better for U.S. to play active role in world or to stay out of world affairs

Among registered voters

Party ID	Role in world
	Take an active part in world affairs	Stay out of world affairs	Don’t know
Total	62	36	1
Republican	53	46	1
Independent	47	49	1
Democrat	75	23	2
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Do you think it will be better for the future of the country if we take an active part in world affairs, or if we stay out of world affairs?

Twenty-eight percent says the U.S. is providing too much support to Israel in its war with Hamas in Gaza, while 23% say the U.S. is not giving enough support for Israel and 46% say about the right amount of support is being given to Israel. Table 32 shows how views of aid to Israel vary by party. Democrats are more likely to say the U.S. is giving too much support to Israel than are Republicans.

Table 32: Amount of U.S. support to Israel, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Support to Israel
	Too much support	Not enough support	About the right amount of support	Don’t know
Total	28	23	46	3
Republican	18	32	45	4
Independent	29	28	39	4
Democrat	37	12	50	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Israel, not enough support to Israel, or about the right amount of support to Israel?

Asked about support for aid to Ukraine, 36% say the U.S. is giving too much support to Ukraine, 22% say not enough support is being given, and 41% say the amount of support is about right. Party differences on aid to Ukraine are the reverse of those for aid to Israel, with Republicans most likely to say too much support is being given to Ukraine and Democrats least likely to say this, as shown in Table 33.

Table 33: Amount of U.S. support to Ukraine, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Support to Ukraine
	Too much support	Not enough support	About the right amount of support	Don’t know
Total	36	22	41	1
Republican	55	13	29	2
Independent	43	20	36	1
Democrat	12	31	55	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine?

Views of the economy and personal financial situation

The national economy is seen as excellent by only 3%, as good by 24%, as not so good by 36%, and as poor by 37%. These views of the economy differ sharply by party identification, as shown in Table 34.

Table 34: Views of the national economy, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Description of national economy
	Excellent	Good	Not so good	Poor
Total	3	24	36	37
Republican	0	4	34	61
Independent	0	19	38	43
Democrat	7	47	37	9
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?

Among registered voters, 48% say they are living comfortably, while 36% say they are just getting by and 15% say they are struggling. Partisan differences in personal financial situation are shown in Table 35.

Table 35: Family financial situation, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Family financial situation
	Living comfortably	Just getting by	Struggling
Total	48	36	15
Republican	42	41	17
Independent	29	40	31
Democrat	60	31	9
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet?

Abortion opinion

A majority, 57%, oppose the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in 2022 that overturned Roe v. Wade, while 35% favor that decision. Table 36 shows opinion by party, with a majority of Republicans in favor of overturning Roe while majorities of independents and Democrats are opposed.

Table 36: Favor or oppose overturning Roe v. Wade, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Overturning Roe v. Wade
	Favor	Oppose	Haven’t heard of decision
Total	35	57	6
Republican	66	26	5
Independent	27	60	10
Democrat	5	89	6
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Do you favor or oppose the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states?

Abortion remains one of the most important issues among Democrats, though less so among Republicans and independents, as shown in Table 37.

Table 37: Importance of the abortion issue by party identification

Among registered voters

Party ID	Importance of abortion issue
	One of the most important issues	Somewhat important	Not very important	Not at all important
Total	38	42	13	6
Republican	28	42	19	11
Independent	19	59	18	4
Democrat	55	37	6	1
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: How important is the abortion issue to you–would you say it is one of the most important, somewhat important, not very important, or not important at all?

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This survey was conducted Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023, interviewing 908 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. The sample includes 402 Republicans and independents who lean Republican who were asked about their preferences in the Republican presidential primary, with a margin of error of +/-6.8 percentage points.

The survey was conducted with a hybrid sample of 690 respondents selected from the Wisconsin voter registration list and 218 selected from the SSRS Opinion Panel, a sample drawn from postal addresses across the state and invited to take part in surveys online. Interviews were conducted online with 693 respondents, while 215 interviews were conducted by telephone with a live interviewer. Full details of the methodology are contained in the methodology statement at the link below.

The partisan makeup of the sample is 30% Republican, 29% Democratic, and 41% independent. Since January 2020, the long-term partisan balance has been 30% Republican and 28% Democratic, with 41% independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results, and breakdowns by demographic groups are available on the Marquette Law Poll website.