New Marquette Law School Poll finds Clinton leading Trump by 6 percentage points in Wisconsin; Senate race is virtually tied

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll finds 46 percent of Wisconsin likely voters supporting Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton and 40 percent supporting Republican Donald Trump in the race for president. Libertarian Gary Johnson is supported by 4 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein by 3 percent. Six percent do not express a preference, saying that they will vote for neither candidate, will not vote or don’t know how they will vote. In the most recent Marquette Law School Poll, conducted Oct. 6-9, Clinton received 44 percent, Trump 37 percent, Johnson 9 percent and Stein 3 percent, with 6 percent not expressing a preference. The new survey, the final Marquette Law School Poll to be conducted before the Nov. 8 election, additionally finds a very close U.S. Senate race in Wisconsin, with 45 percent of likely voters supporting Democrat Russ Feingold and 44 percent supporting Republican Ron Johnson. Libertarian candidate Phil Anderson has 3 percent support, while 5 percent do not express a candidate preference, saying that they will vote for none of the candidates, will not vote or don’t know how they will vote. In the poll conducted Oct. 6-9, Feingold held 46 percent to Johnson’s 44 percent, with Anderson at 4 percent and 5 percent without a preference. In the presidential race, undecided and third-party voters are evenly divided along partisan lines. Among those not choosing a major-party presidential candidate, 42 percent are Republicans and 43 percent are Democrats, with 15 percent saying that they are independent or identify with other parties. Among those not choosing a major-party Senate candidate, 39 percent are Republicans and 38 percent are Democrats, with 23 percent saying that they are independent or identify with some other party. Early voters make up 16 percent of the sample consisting of those likely to vote or who have already voted. Among early voters, Clinton receives 64 percent to 25 percent for Trump, 1 percent for Johnson and no votes for Stein. Six percent of early voters declined to say how they voted, and 3 percent said they voted for someone else. Among early voters for the Senate, Feingold receives 58 percent, Johnson 29 percent and Anderson 2 percent. Eight percent declined to say how they voted, and 3 percent said they voted for someone else. One percent said they did not vote for the Senate. The Wisconsin Elections Commission reported Tuesday that 518,600 early ballots had been cast, which would have been 16.9 percent of the 2012 presidential turnout of 3.071 million voters. The full sample of the Oct. 26-31 survey comprises 1,401 registered voters interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points. Results for likely voters are based on 1,255 respondents, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. Shifts following news of FBI investigation of Clinton emails The poll began interviewing voters on Wednesday, Oct. 26, and continued through Monday, Oct. 31. News of the FBI’s informing Congress that it is investigating recently…

New Marquette Law School Poll finds Wisconsin voters shifting support to Clinton after Trump video release

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll finds 44 percent of Wisconsin likely voters supporting Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton for president and 37 percent supporting Republican Donald Trump, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 9 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein at 3 percent. Six percent do not express a preference, saying that they will vote for neither candidate, will not vote or don’t know how they will vote. The poll was conducted Oct. 6-9 and was completed before the second presidential debate. The poll began interviewing voters the day before the Washington Post published a story and a 2005 recording in which Trump described, in graphic detail, his treatment of women. “The publication appears to have caused a significant shift in Wisconsin voters’ attitudes, across several different demographics,” said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll. In the previous Marquette Law School Poll, conducted Sept. 15-18, Clinton was supported by 41 percent and Trump by 38 percent among likely voters, with Johnson at 11 percent, Stein at 2 percent and 7 percent not having a preference. In the new poll’s head-to-head matchup (as opposed to the four-way race), Clinton receives 46 percent to Trump’s 42 percent of likely voters, with 9 not giving a preference. In the September head-to-head matchup, among likely voters, Clinton had the support of 44 percent and Trump was supported by 42 percent, with 12 percent not expressing a preference. In Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race, 46 percent of likely voters support Russ Feingold, 44 percent back Sen. Ron Johnson and 4 percent choose Libertarian candidate Phil Anderson. Five percent do not express a preference. In September, Feingold was supported by 44 percent, Johnson by 39 percent and Anderson by 7 percent, with 10 percent not giving a preference. In a head-to-head matchup, among likely voters, 48 percent support Feingold and 46 percent support Johnson, with 6 percent lacking a preference. In September, Feingold was the choice of 47 percent to Johnson’s 41 percent, with 11 percent not stating a preference. The full sample of the Oct. 6-9 survey comprises 1,000 registered voters interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points. Results for likely voters are based on 878 respondents, with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. When broken down by day of interview, the margin of error for Thursday‘s sample is +/-5.9 percentage points and +/-7.8 percentage points for the Friday and combined Saturday and Sunday samples. Shifts following release of Trump 2005 video The October poll began interviewing voters on Thursday, one day before the Washington Post report on the 2005 Trump video. Comparing voter responses by the day interviews took place allows an estimate of how vote preferences shifted after the release. Among all likely voters interviewed on Thursday, Trump led Clinton by 1 percentage point. Among those interviewed on Friday, Clinton led Trump by 6 percentage points. On Saturday and Sunday combined, Clinton led Trump by 19 percentage points. All Likely Voters…