MILWAUKEE — A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds that former President Donald Trump has increased his support for the Republican nomination since March. In July, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is the choice of 22%, down from 25% in May and 35% in March, among all Republicans and independents who lean Republicans and are registered to vote (hereafter “Republican voters”). No other Republican candidate is close to either Trump or DeSantis. Trump’s support for the nomination in July is 46%, unchanged from May, but up from 40% in March. The support for each candidate, and the trends since March, are shown in Table 1.

Other headlines

• In a potential rematch of the 2020 presidential election between President Joe Biden and Trump, registered voters were evenly split, with each candidate receiving 50% support.
• When asked about a hypothetical Biden/DeSantis race, registered voters favored DeSantis, 51-48. There is little change since the May survey, but Biden’s support among independents saw a modest increase, from 44% to 51%.
• Approval of how Biden is handling his job as president inched up slightly to 42%, in July, from 39% in May. Disapproval in July was 57%, down from 61% in May.

The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s national survey was conducted July 7-12, 2023. The survey interviewed 1,005 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. The margin of error is +/-4.2 percentage points for registered voters, and +/-5.8 and +/-6.7 percentage points for registered Republican and registered Democratic voters, respectively. Results related to the U.S. Supreme Court from the same survey were released on July 26.

Table 1: Support for Republican 2024 presidential nomination

Among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Candidate	Poll dates
	7/7-12/23	5/8-18/23	3/13-22/23
Donald Trump	46	46	40
Ron DeSantis	22	25	35
Mike Pence	7	2	5
Nikki Haley	6	4	5
Tim Scott	4	1	*
Chris Christie	1	1	*
Vivek Ramaswamy	1	3	–
Asa Hutchinson	1	*	*
Doug Burgum	1	–	–
Larry Elder	*	1	–
Will Hurd	*	–	–
Francis Suarez	0	–	–
Undecided	12	16	12
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023 *less than .5%, – Not included in poll
Question: Here are some potential candidates for the Republican presidential nomination. If the primary were today, whom would you vote for?

When asked if the choice were only between Trump and DeSantis, 54% of Republican voters say they would vote for Trump and 46% would support DeSantis. DeSantis held an advantage over Trump on this question in late 2022, but Trump overtook DeSantis in May, as shown in Table 2.

Table 2: If choice only between Trump or DeSantis

Among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Poll dates	Choice of candidate
	Donald Trump	Ron DeSantis
7/7-12/23	54	46
5/8-18/23	53	47
3/13-22/23	46	54
1/9-20/23	36	64
11/15-22/22	40	60
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: If it were a choice between just the two of them, whom would you prefer as the Republican nominee for president in 2024: Donald Trump or Florida Governor Ron DeSantis? (order of names randomized in survey)

While Trump holds just under 50% of first-choice support, and just over 50% when matched against only DeSantis, he gains little support as a second choice among initial supporters of other candidates. Table 3 shows how votes change from first to second choice among Republican voters. Those who initially prefer a candidate other than Trump or DeSantis are overwhelmingly likely to choose DeSantis rather than Trump as their second choice. Those initially undecided are more evenly split on second choices, with a slight advantage to DeSantis.

Table 3: GOP 2024 2nd choice, by 1st choice

Among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

1st choice candidate	2nd choice candidate
	Trump	DeSantis
Trump	95	5
DeSantis	6	94
Other candidate	18	80
Undecided	45	55
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Here are some potential candidates for the Republican presidential nomination. If the primary were today, whom would you vote for?
Question: If it were a choice between just the two of them, whom would you prefer as the Republican nominee for president in 2024: Donald Trump or Florida Governor Ron DeSantis? (order of names randomized)

GOP candidate favorability

Trump is viewed favorably by 69% of Republican voters and unfavorably by 30%. His favorability rating has consistently held near 70% among Republican voters in recent months, with around 30% unfavorable. There have been a decrease in favorable and an increase in unfavorable ratings, comparing January through July 2022 with the same months in 2023. The full trend is shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Favorability rating of Donald Trump

Among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Poll dates	Favorability
	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
7/7-12/23	69	30	1
5/8-18/23	72	26	2
3/13-22/23	66	31	2
1/9-20/23	70	28	2
11/15-22/22	67	32	1
9/7-14/22	74	25	1
7/5-12/22	76	22	2
5/9-19/22	75	22	2
3/14-24/22	75	23	1
1/10-21/22	71	28	1
11/1-10/21	70	29	1
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? . . . Donald Trump

Trump’s favorability outpaces his voter-preference figures because of defections by some of those favorable to him and majority opposition among those unfavorable to him. This is shown for the first choice among primary candidates in Table 5. Among those favorable to Trump, Trump receives 64% support, but 21% support DeSantis and 8% another candidate, with 7% undecided. Among those Republican voters unfavorable to him, Trump receives only 4% of the vote, with 22% for DeSantis and 49% for one of the other named candidates, while 26% say they are undecided.

Table 5: GOP 2024 1st choice, by Trump favorability

Among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Trump favorability	1st choice of candidate
	Trump	DeSantis	Other candidate	Undecided
Favorable	64	21	8	7
Unfavorable	4	21	50	25
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Here are some potential candidates for the Republican presidential nomination. If the primary were today, whom would you vote for?

Republican favorability to DeSantis rose during 2022 and peaked in January 2023. It has been declining slightly since then. His unfavorable ratings have increased over time, reaching 21% in July. Meanwhile, Republican voters have become much more familiar with DeSantis, with those saying they haven’t heard enough about him now at 12%. The full trend is shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Favorability rating of Ron DeSantis

Among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Poll dates	Favorability
	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
7/7-12/23	67	21	12
5/8-18/23	58	16	26
3/13-22/23	69	15	15
1/9-20/23	71	10	19
11/15-22/22	68	10	22
9/7-14/22	65	10	25
7/5-12/22	62	9	29
5/9-19/22	58	15	27
3/14-24/22	57	7	35
1/10-21/22	57	9	34
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? . . . Ron DeSantis

The July favorability ratings among Republican voters for all 12 Republican candidates included in the survey are shown in Table 7.  Many of the candidates remain little known to Republican voters. DeSantis’ net favorability is higher than Trump’s, thanks to nearly equal favorable ratings and lower unfavorable ratings for DeSantis. More respondents lack an opinion of DeSantis than of Trump.

Table 7: GOP 2024 candidate favorability

Among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Candidate	Favorability
	Net favorable	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
DeSantis	46	67	21	12
Trump	39	69	30	1
Scott	36	44	8	48
Haley	30	48	18	34
Elder	24	32	8	60
Ramaswamy	20	28	8	64
Pence	-1	44	45	10
Hurd	-2	4	6	90
Hutchinson	-5	11	16	73
Suarez	-6	4	10	86
Burgum	-7	1	8	91
Christie	-35	19	54	27
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Democratic candidate favorability

Among registered voters who are Democrats or independents who lean Democratic (hereafter “Democratic voters”), President Joe Biden is the choice for the nomination of 54%, with 14% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 6% for Marianne Williamson, and 27% who are undecided. There has been little change in preferences since May, as shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Support for Democratic 2024 presidential nomination

Among registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic

Poll dates	Candidate
	Joe Biden	Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.	Marianne Williamson	Undecided
7/7-12/23	54	14	6	27
5/8-18/23	51	13	6	30
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Here are some potential candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination. If the primary were today, whom would you vote for?

Biden’s favorability rating among Democratic voters has remained near 80% since 2021, and his unfavorable around 20%, as shown in Table 9. In July, 80% of Democratic voters had a favorable view of Biden and 19% an unfavorable opinion. Biden’s favorability among Democrats is some 11 points higher than Trump’s favorability among Republicans.

Table 9: Favorability rating of Joe Biden

Among registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic

Poll dates	Favorability
	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
7/7-12/23	80	19	1
5/8-18/23	77	21	2
3/13-22/23	78	21	1
1/9-20/23	83	16	1
11/15-22/22	81	17	3
9/7-14/22	84	14	1
7/5-12/22	68	28	4
5/9-19/22	76	19	4
3/14-24/22	84	15	1
1/10-21/22	82	16	3
11/1-10/21	76	19	5
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?…Joe Biden

2024 general election matchups

When asked if they had to choose between Biden and Trump for president in 2024, 50% of registered voters say they would vote for Biden and 50% would vote for Trump. There is strong party-line voting, with little crossover voting. Among independents, Biden holds a small edge over Trump. Table 10 shows the vote by party identification in the May and July surveys. In May, Trump held a slight advantage in the overall preference. (In this and subsequent tables, partisans include independents who say they are closer to that party than to the other.)

Table 10: Biden vs. Trump vote, with party identification, May and July 2023

Among registered voters

Party ID	Candidate
	Donald Trump	Joe Biden
July 2023
Total	50	50
Republican	91	8
Independent	46	53
Democrat	10	90
May 2023
Total	52	47
Republican	93	7
Independent	51	48
Democrat	10	90
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? (order of names randomized in survey)

In a matchup with DeSantis, DeSantis receives 51% and Biden gets 48%, which is a slight change from May. Biden’s support among independents rose in July, as shown in Table 11.

Table 11: Biden vs. DeSantis vote, with party identification, May and July 2023

Among registered voters

Party ID	Candidate
	Ron DeSantis	Joe Biden
July 2023
Total	51	48
Republican	92	7
Independent	49	51
Democrat	11	89
May 2023
Total	52	48
Republican	93	6
Independent	56	44
Democrat	7	93
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Ron DeSantis or for Joe Biden? (order of names randomized in survey)

Classified documents

Among all adults, 65% said they have heard or read a lot about Trump’s indictment in Florida, relating to classified documents he is alleged to have kept after leaving office. Twenty-nine percent said they have heard a little and 6% said they have heard nothing at all about the indictment.

The level of attention to news about the indictment was quite similar for Republicans and Democrats, and substantially less among independents, as shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Attention to Trump federal indictment in Florida, related to classified documents, with party identification, July 2023

Among adults

Party ID	Amount heard or read
	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
Total	65	29	6
Republican	69	28	3
Independent	43	40	16
Democrat	72	25	3
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? . . . Donald Trump being indicted in federal court in Florida

While attention to the indictment was similar among Democrats and Republicans, there are sharp partisan differences in belief whether Trump had classified documents at Mar-a-Lago in Florida. Table 13 shows the responses by party since September 2022. Republicans are now evenly divided, with 49% saying there were classified documents at Mar-a-Lago and 50% saying there were not. In September 2022, 40% of Republicans said there were such documents and 60% said there were not. Among independents, 78% now say classified documents were present, up from 66% in September 2022. Almost all Democrats, 95%, now say classified documents were present, compared to 91% saying so in September 2022.

Table 13: Did Trump keep classified documents, by poll dates and party ID

Among adults

Party ID	Were there classified documents
	Yes	No
Republican
7/7-12/23	49	50
1/9-20/23	48	52
11/15-22/22	34	66
9/7-14/22	40	60
Independent
7/7-12/23	78	19
1/9-20/23	71	26
11/15-22/22	64	36
9/7-14/22	66	34
Democrat
7/7-12/23	95	5
1/9-20/23	92	8
11/15-22/22	93	7
9/7-14/22	91	9
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Do you believe Donald Trump had top secret and other classified material or national security documents at his home in Mar-a-Lago last year?

Following the search at Mar-a-Lago, classified documents were also found in the homes or offices of Biden and former Vice President Mike Pence. Respondents were asked if they thought each of the instances represented an illegal action by the individual, something careless but not illegal, or if there was nothing wrong. The results for Trump, Biden, and Pence are shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Was possession of classified documents illegal?

Among adults

Individual	Posession was…
	Illegal	Careless but not illegal	Didn’t do anything wrong
Trump	59	28	12
Biden	36	48	16
Pence	21	57	21
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Thinking about each of the following individuals and their handling of classified documents, do you think they did something illegal, they did something careless but not illegal, or they didn’t do anything wrong regarding classified documents.

Abortion

Abortion policy remains a salient issue just over a year after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. More than 60% of adults say they are opposed to the Court’s decision, a small decline since November 2022, as shown in Table 15.

Table 15: Favor or oppose overturning Roe v. Wade

Among adults

Poll dates	Overturning Roe v. Wade
	Favor	Oppose
7/7-12/23	38	62
5/8-18/23	35	65
3/13-22/23	33	67
1/9-20/23	35	64
11/15-22/22	33	66
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

There has been little change in opinion on when abortion should be legal or illegal since May 2022, as shown in Table 16. Sixty-five percent say it should be legal in all or most cases, while 34% say it should be illegal in all or most cases. In May 2022, 67% said legal in all or most cases and 32 % said illegal in all or most cases.

Table 16: When should abortion be legal or illegal

Among adults

Poll dates	When legal or illegal
	Legal in all cases	Legal in most cases	Illegal in most cases	Illegal in all cases
7/7-12/23	29	36	28	6
5/8-18/23	32	36	25	7
3/13-22/23	28	39	27	6
1/9-20/23	26	38	28	8
11/15-22/22	29	36	26	9
9/7-14/22	31	37	26	6
7/5-12/22	28	36	27	8
5/9-19/22	29	38	24	8
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases?

The public is closely divided on a national ban on abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, with strong partisan differences, as shown in Table 17. Overall, 47% favor a ban after 15 weeks, while 53% are opposed. Among Republicans, almost three-quarters favor such a ban while among Democrats three-quarters are opposed. Independents are somewhat more opposed to a ban, 56%, with 43% in favor.

Table 17: Favor or oppose a national 15-week ban on abortion, with party identification, July 2023

Among adults

Party ID	15 week ban
	Favor	Oppose
Total	47	53
Republican	73	27
Independent	43	56
Democrat	25	75
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Which of the following proposals would you favor and which would you oppose? . . . Pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy

Abortion is one of the most important issues for 38% of adults, and somewhat important for 40%, with 18% saying it is not very important and 4% saying it is not important at all. There has been some decline in the percent who say it is one of the most important issues, from 48% in September 2022 to the current 38%. The full trend is shown in Table 18.

Table 18: How important is the abortion issue to you

Among adults

Poll dates	How important
	One of the most important issues	Somewhat important	Not very important	Not important at all
7/7-12/23	38	40	18	4
9/7-14/22	48	35	12	5
7/5-12/22	42	39	12	5
5/9-19/22	40	39	15	6
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: How important is the abortion issue to you—would you say it is one of the most important, somewhat important, not very important, or not important at all?

The poll asked about how much people have read or heard about a plea agreement by Hunter Biden to misdemeanor charges of tax evasion and an agreement concerning a gun charge. Among adults, 36% said they have heard or read a lot about this, 40% have heard a little, and 23% have heard nothing at all. Attention to this news also varied by party identification, as shown in Table 19, with Republicans more likely to have heard a lot than Democrats, while independents were least likely to have heard a lot.

Table 19: Attention to Hunter Biden plea agreement, with party identification, July 2023

Among adults

Party ID	Amount heard or read
	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
Total	36	40	23
Republican	44	39	18
Independent	26	31	42
Democrat	33	45	21
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? . . . Hunter Biden’s agreement to plead guilty to misdemeanor charges of tax evasion and a gun charge

Presidential job approval

Approval of how Joe Biden is handling his job as president inched up slightly to 42% in July, from 39% in May. Disapproval in July was 57%, down from 61% in May. The full trend for Biden job approval in the Marquette Law School poll is shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Approval of Biden’s handling his job as president

Among adults

Poll dates	Biden job approval
	Approve	Disapprove
7/7-12/23	42	57
5/8-18/23	39	61
3/13-22/23	39	61
1/9-20/23	43	56
11/15-22/22	45	55
9/7-14/22	45	55
7/5-12/22	36	64
5/9-19/22	42	57
3/14-24/22	44	55
1/10-21/22	46	53
11/1-10/21	49	51
9/7-16/21	48	52
7/16-26/21	58	42
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted July 7-12, 2023, interviewing 1,005 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. For all registered voters, the margin of error is +/-4.2 percentage points. For registered voters who are Republican or independents who lean Republican, the margin of error is +/-5.8 percentage points and for registered voters who are Democrats or independents who lean Democratic the margin of error is +/-6.7 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online.  Certain other data from this survey (focusing on those about public views of the Supreme Court) were released yesterday, on July 26.  The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available at the Marquette Law School Poll website.

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds that 45% of adults approve of the job the U.S. Supreme Court is doing and 55% disapprove. While approval remains below disapproval, this is a 4-percentage point increase in approval since May and the second highest rating since March 2022, when approval stood at 54%. The trend in approval since 2020 is shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.) For each of five June 2023 decisions inquired about, a plurality of people with an opinion favored the Court’s ruling, as discussed after the first two tables.

Table 1: Supreme Court approval

Among adults

Poll dates	Approval
	Approve	Disapprove
7/7-12/23	45	55
5/8-18/23	41	59
3/13-22/23	44	56
1/9-20/23	47	53
11/15-22/22	44	56
9/7-14/22	40	60
7/5-12/22	38	61
5/9-19/22	44	55
3/14-24/22	54	45
1/10-21/22	52	46
11/1-10/21	54	46
9/7-16/21	49	50
7/16-26/21	60	39
9/8-15/20	66	33
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?

Approval among Republicans rose by 12 percentage points, to 71% in July, up from 59% in May. Approval among independents rose 2 percentage points, while among Democrats it declined 2 percentage points from May to July. Approval of the Court by party identification is shown in Table 2 for July and for May.

Table 2: Approval of the Supreme Court, with party identification, May and July 2023

Among adults

Party ID	Approval
	Approve	Disapprove
July 2023
Total	45	55
Republican	71	29
Independent	40	60
Democrat	24	76
May 2023
Total	41	59
Republican	59	41
Independent	38	62
Democrat	26	74
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?

Other headlines

• Each of five decisions released in June 2023 and included in the survey found a plurality of support, with at least two-thirds awareness in cases involving race in college admissions, student-loan forgiveness, and religious beliefs and free speech:
  • Half of all respondents, 50%, favored the Court’s decision that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit, while 37% favored the decision against President Biden’s student loan forgiveness program and 35% favored the decision that a business owner’s religious beliefs or free speech rights can justify refusing some services to gay people. About a third of those surveyed had not heard enough to weigh in on the decisions.
• Cases involving the need for employers to accommodate religious practices and Alabama’s congressional map elicited awareness of only about one-third of respondents:
  • A ruling that federal civil rights law requires an employer to accommodate an employee’s religious practice was favored by 27%, but 63% had not heard enough to have an opinion. Similarly, 24% favored the ruling that Alabama, in drawing a congressional districting map, had diluted the power of Black voters, in violation of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, but 66% had not heard enough.

The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s national Supreme Court survey was conducted July 7-12, 2023. The survey interviewed 1,005 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points.

Confidence in the Court as an institution rose in July, with 31% of respondents saying they have a great deal or a lot of confidence in the Court, an increase from May when 25% said the same. The full trend is shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Confidence in the U.S. Supreme Court

Among adults

Poll dates	Confidence
	Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
7/7-12/23	31	32	37
5/8-18/23	25	36	39
3/13-22/23	28	40	32
1/9-20/23	31	38	31
11/15-22/22	30	36	34
9/7-14/22	30	34	36
7/5-12/22	28	28	44
9/8-15/20	39	45	16
9/3-13/19	37	42	20
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? . . . The U.S. Supreme Court.

Confidence in Congress and in the presidency also increased from May to July, though by less than confidence in the Court. In July, 14% said they had a great deal or a lot of confidence in Congress, up from 11% in May. Those saying the same about the presidency were 28% in July, compared to 25% in May. These trends are shown in Table 4 and Table 5.

Table 4: Confidence in Congress

Among adults

Poll dates	Confidence
	Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
7/7-12/23	14	44	43
5/8-18/23	11	41	49
3/13-22/23	15	43	42
1/9-20/23	13	43	44
11/15-22/22	17	43	40
9/7-14/22	16	37	47
7/5-12/22	10	35	56
9/8-15/20	13	42	44
9/3-13/19	10	39	51
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? . . . Congress.

Table 5: Confidence in the presidency

Among adults

Poll dates	Confidence
	Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
7/7-12/23	28	32	40
5/8-18/23	25	30	45
3/13-22/23	26	34	40
1/9-20/23	26	30	43
11/15-22/22	30	33	37
9/7-14/22	33	29	38
7/5-12/22	21	31	48
9/8-15/20	31	23	45
9/3-13/19	28	25	47
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? . . . The presidency

The Department of Justice has become the subject of debate over its handling of a number of prosecutions and investigations in recent years. Overall, 25% say they have a great deal or a lot of confidence in the DOJ, while 34% say they have some confidence, with a substantial 41% saying they have little or no confidence.

Partisans are substantially divided concerning the Department of Justice, with a majority of Republicans expressing little or no confidence. Only 16% of Democrats say the same. These differences are shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Confidence in the Department of Justice, with party identification, July 2023

Among adults

Party ID	Confidence
	Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
Total	25	34	41
Republican	13	29	58
Independent	22	33	45
Democrat	42	42	16
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? . . . The U.S. Department of Justice

Confidence in the national news media remains at low levels, with 13% expressing a great deal or a lot of confidence, 27% saying they have some confidence, and a majority, 60%, saying they have little or no confidence. The partisan divisions are also sharp, as shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Confidence in the national news media, with party identification, May and July 2023

Among adults

Party ID	Confidence
	Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
July 2023
Total	13	27	60
Republican	3	14	83
Independent	9	28	63
Democrat	29	40	31
May 2023
Total	16	27	57
Republican	6	16	78
Independent	11	27	62
Democrat	33	39	28
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? . . . The national news media

Attention to news concerning the Supreme Court varies considerably across topics, as shown in Table 8. Two decisions, concerning student-loan forgiveness and concerning the use of race in college admissions, drew high levels of attention, with more than half of respondents saying they heard or read a lot about these topics. In contrast, fewer than 20% said they had heard or read a lot about decisions involving congressional districting in Alabama or the power of state legislatures to set rules for federal elections. A similarly low percentage, 15%, heard a lot about Justice Samuel Alito’s financial disclosure reports. For comparison, in May, about twice as many, 33%, had heard a lot about Justice Clarence Thomas’ financial disclosure reports.

Table 8: Attention to news concerning U.S. Supreme Court

Among adults

Topic	Amount heard or read about…
	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
A Supreme Court case concerning student-loan forgiveness	56	38	7
A Supreme Court case concerning the use of race in college admissions	51	31	18
A Supreme Court case concerning the powers of state legislatures to set the rules for federal elections for Congress and president	17	46	38
News stories about Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito’s financial disclosure reports	15	33	51
A Supreme Court case concerning congressional districts in Alabama	10	36	54
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these?

Awareness of the makeup of the Court, in terms of which party’s presidents have appointed a majority of justices, rose in July, with 36% saying Republican presidents had definitely appointed a majority of justices, 42% saying Republican presidents had probably done so, and 22% believing a majority had definitely or probably been appointed by Democrats. The percentage correctly saying Republicans appointed a majority has generally increased since 2019, though it ebbs and flows, as shown in Table 9.

Table 9: Majority of Court appointed by which party’s presidents

Among adults

Poll dates	Majority appointed by
	Definitely/Probably Dem majority	Probably Rep majority	Definitely Rep majority
7/7-12/23	22	42	36
5/8-18/23	29	41	30
3/13-22/23	27	41	31
1/9-20/23	23	41	36
11/15-22/22	24	40	35
9/7-14/22	22	40	37
7/5-12/22	20	40	40
5/9-19/22	31	39	31
3/14-24/22	28	47	24
1/10-21/22	23	44	33
11/1-10/21	28	44	28
9/7-16/21	25	46	29
7/16-26/21	24	45	30
9/8-15/20	28	51	21
9/3-13/19	27	53	19
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: What is your guess as to whether a majority of the current U.S. Supreme Court justices were appointed by Democratic or Republican presidents?

Awareness of and opinion about recent decisions

While many people lack information about individual Court decisions, a plurality favor each of five particular decisions that were handed down in June and inquired about in the survey. The percentage favoring and opposing each decision varies, as does the degree of awareness, as shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Awareness and opinion on recent U.S. Supreme Court decisions

Among adults

Court Decision	Awareness and opinion
	Not heard enough	Favor	Oppose
Ruled that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit	28	50	22
Ruled that the Biden administration exceeded the authority granted to it by Congress to alter loan conditions, thus striking down the student-loan forgiveness policy	32	37	31
Ruled that a business owner’s religious beliefs or free speech rights can justify refusing some services to gay people	33	35	32
Ruled that federal civil rights law requires an employer to accommodate an employee’s religious practice unless it can show that doing so would result in substantial increased costs to the employer	63	27	11
Ruled that Alabama, in drawing a congressional districting map, diluted the power of Black voters, in violation of the Voting Rights Act of 1965	66	24	10
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Do you favor or oppose the following recent Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion?

Respondents were asked if they thought that the Court, over the past 15 years or so, had expanded or reduced the rights protected for each of several groups. Those responses are shown in Table 11. Respondents perceive an increase in rights protected for LGBTQ people and for religious people and organizations, while there is a nearly even split in seeing increased or reduced rights for gun owners and voting rights for minority groups. Rights of those seeking an abortion are seen by a large majority as having been reduced.

Table 11: Has the Court expanded or reduced rights protected?

Among adults

Group	Change in rights protected
	Expanded rights	Reduced rights	Has not changed much either way
Lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBTQ) people	56	25	19
Religious people and organizations	42	23	35
Gun owners	32	29	39
Voting rights of racial or ethnic minorities	30	29	41
Those seeking an abortion	9	78	13
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Over the past 15 years or so would you say the Supreme Court has generally expanded or reduced the rights protected for each of these groups or has it not changed much either way?

Respondents were asked about past decisions concerning abortion, same-sex marriage, and anti-discrimination protection for gay and transgender employees. Those results are shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Favor or oppose past decisions of the U.S. Supreme Court

Among adults

Decision	Favor or oppose decision
	Strongly favor	Somewhat favor	Somewhat oppose	Strongly oppose
In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states	23	15	15	47
In 2015, the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage	42	23	16	18
In 2020, the Supreme Court ruled that a federal civil rights law protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination	50	31	12	7
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Public perception of the ideology of the U.S. Supreme Court has shifted in a conservative direction since 2019, as shown in Table 13. In September 2019, 38% of the public saw the Court as very or somewhat conservative. In the current poll, 62% see the Court that way. Over this same period, the percent saying the Court is moderate has declined from 50% to 28%.

Table 13: Perceived ideology of the U.S. Supreme Court

Among adults

Poll dates	Perceived ideology
	Very conservative	Somewhat conservative	Moderate	Somewhat liberal	Very liberal
7/7-12/23	27	35	28	7	3
5/8-18/23	24	33	30	10	3
3/13-22/23	23	35	34	6	2
1/9-20/23	22	37	31	8	2
11/15-22/22	25	36	32	6	2
9/7-14/22	29	35	27	5	3
7/5-12/22	34	33	21	7	3
5/9-19/22	23	33	34	8	2
3/14-24/22	15	37	36	10	2
1/10-21/22	17	38	35	8	2
11/1-10/21	15	35	39	8	1
9/7-16/21	16	35	40	7	2
7/16-26/21	13	37	42	6	1
9/8-15/20	5	30	54	9	2
9/3-13/19	5	33	50	9	3
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: In general, would you describe each of the following as…? . . . The U.S. Supreme Court.

Since 2019 there has been an increase in the percentage of the public who think that the justices’ decisions are motivated mainly by politics, rising from 35% in 2019 to 58% in July 2023, with a sharp upturn since the end of 2021. The full trend is shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Are justices’ decisions motivated mainly by the law or mainly by politics?

Among adults

Poll dates	Perceived motivation
	Mainly politics	Mainly the law
7/7-12/23	58	42
1/9-20/23	49	51
7/5-12/22	52	48
1/10-21/22	47	53
11/1-10/21	30	70
9/7-16/21	39	61
7/16-26/21	29	71
9/8-15/20	37	62
9/3-13/19	35	64
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: In general, what most often motivates Supreme Court justices’ decisions?

Recent news concerning the justices’ financial disclosures and related matters have raised attention to the ethical standards of the Court. The public remains evenly divided in its perceptions of the honesty and ethical standards of the justices, with about a third of the public rating the justices as having very high or high honesty and ethical standards, a third rating the justices as average in this regard, and a third saying the justices have low or very low standards. The percentage rating the justices’ standards as very high or high increased from about a quarter in May. Table 15 shows the results for May and for July.

Table 15: Honesty and ethical standards of U.S. Supreme Court justices

Among adults

Poll dates	Perceived honesty and ethical standards
	Very high/high	Average	Low/Very low
7/7-12/23	32	33	35
5/8-18/23	26	39	35
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Please tell me how you would rate the honesty and ethical standards of people in these different fields? . . . U.S. Supreme Court justices

Respondents were also asked about the honesty and ethical standards of judges in their state, lawyers, journalists, and people in cable TV news. Those results for the July poll are shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Honesty and ethical standards of legal and news professions

Among adults

Group	Honesty and ethical standards
	Very high/high	Average	Low/Very low
U.S. Supreme Court justices	32	33	35
Judges in your state	25	51	25
Journalists	16	42	42
Lawyers	14	47	39
Cable TV news	8	33	60
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Please tell me how you would rate the honesty and ethical standards of people in these different fields?

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted July 7-12, 2023, interviewing 1,005 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law Poll website. Some items from this survey are held for later release.

Wording of questions about future and past Supreme Court decisions: These items do not attempt to exactly frame the particular issues in specific cases but rather address the topic in more general terms.

The wording of questions about cases decided in June includes:

Do you favor or oppose the following recent Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion?

• Ruled that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit.
• Ruled that a business owner’s religious beliefs or free speech rights can justify refusing some services to gay people.
• Ruled that the Biden administration exceeded the authority granted to it by Congress to alter loan conditions, thus striking down the student loan forgiveness policy.
• Ruled that Alabama, in drawing a congressional districting map, diluted the power of Black voters, in violation of the Voting Rights Act of 1965.
• Ruled that federal civil rights law requires an employer to accommodate an employee’s religious practice unless it can show that doing so would result in substantial increased costs to the employer.

The wording of questions about previous decisions include:

Opinion of Dobbs decisions, striking down Roe v. Wade

• In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Opinion of same-sex marriage decision:

• In 2015 the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Opinion on anti-discrimination law protecting gay and transgender employees

In 2020, the Supreme Court ruled that a federal civil rights law protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?