MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds that 44% of adults approve of the job the U.S. Supreme Court is doing, while 56% disapprove. This is a slight decline from January, when 47% approved and 53% disapproved. Approval of the Court’s work hit a low of 38% in July 2022 and had risen gradually in every-other-month polling until this new poll. In all of these surveys since the middle of last year, approval has remained well below the 60% rate from July 2021.

The trend in approval since 2020 is shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1 (right): Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
9/8-15/20	66	33
7/16-26/21	60	39
9/7-16/21	49	50
11/1-10/21	54	46
1/10-21/22	52	46
3/14-24/22	54	45
5/9-19/22	44	55
7/5-12/22	38	61
9/7-14/22	40	60
11/15-22/22	44	56
1/9-20/23	47	53
3/13-22/23	44	56

The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s national Supreme Court survey was conducted March 13-22, 2023. The survey interviewed 1,004 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-3.8 percentage points.

Partisan differences in approval of the Court are quite pronounced in the current poll, in contrast to minimal such differences as recently as July 2021. Table 2 shows approval by partisanship then and now.

Table 2: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?, by party identification

(a) March 2023

Party ID	Approve	Disapprove
Republican	66	34
Independent	39	61
Democrat	28	72

(b) July 2021

Party ID	Approve	Disapprove
Republican	57	42
Independent	61	37
Democrat	59	40

In March, approval among Democrats was 7 percentage points lower than in January, and it was also 3 points lower among independents in January. Approval among Republicans was 1 point lower than in that early 2023 poll.

Shifts in approval have been substantial since 2020. Table 3 shows approval by party in each of the Marquette polls since September 2020. A sharp increase in party polarization began in September 2021 before decreasing somewhat through March 2022. Polarization then increased in May 2022, following the leak of the draft opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, suggesting that the Court would overturn the Roe v. Wade decision on abortion rights. Partisan differences further intensified in July 2022, following the Court’s ruling in Dobbs overturning Roe. In the subsequent months, approvals among independents and Democrats had moved upward from their low points, until this latest poll, while Republican approval has fluctuated over the past year between 64% and 71%.

Table 3: Approval of the Court, by party identification, Sept. 2020-Jan. 2023

Poll dates	Republican	Independent	Democrat
9/8-15/20	80	64	57
7/16-26/21	57	61	59
9/7-16/21	61	51	37
11/1-10/21	61	53	49
1/10-21/22	60	52	45
3/14-24/22	64	51	52
5/9-19/22	71	38	28
7/5-12/22	67	39	15
9/7-14/22	65	34	24
11/15-22/22	70	40	28
1/9-20/23	67	42	35
3/13-22/23	66	39	28

Awareness of pending cases

Unlike Congress or the president, the Supreme Court is not constantly in the news. Rather, coverage is concentrated around the announcement of decisions and, to some extent, the argument of cases or the appointment of justices. This fluctuating pattern of news means the public may not hear about most cases before they are decided.

In March, 17% said they had heard or read a lot about “a Supreme Court case concerning the use of race in college admissions,” 50% had heard a little, and 32% had heard nothing at all. The cases, Students for Fair Admissions Inc. v. President and Fellows of Harvard College and Students for Fair Admissions v. University of North Carolina were argued Oct. 31. In the national November 2022 Marquette Law School Poll, conducted shortly after oral arguments, 20% had heard a lot, 45% had heard a little, and 34% had heard nothing about the cases.

The public was more aware of a set of cases concerning student loan forgiveness, argued February 28, 2023, Biden v. Nebraska and Department of Education v. Brown. Fifty percent said they had heard a lot about this, 41% a little, and 10% had heard nothing at all.

Awareness was lower about a pair of cases concerning social media companies, argued Feb. 21-22, Gonzalez v. Google LLC and Twitter v. Taamneh. Nine percent said they had heard a lot, 51% a little, and 40% had heard nothing.

Views of the justices

The justices of the U.S. Supreme Court are not generally well known among the public, with a majority of the public saying they don’t know enough to give a favorable or unfavorable opinion about most justices. Justice Clarence Thomas is the most widely known and Justice Elena Kagan the least well known, as shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Some justices of the Supreme Court are better known than others. For each of these names, have you never heard of them, heard of them but don’t know enough to have an opinion of them, have a favorable opinion or have an unfavorable opinion?

Justice	Favorable	Unfavorable	Unable to rate
Samuel Alito	15	16	69
Amy Coney Barrett	22	27	51
Neil Gorsuch	18	15	67
Ketanji Brown Jackson	26	15	59
Elena Kagan	17	10	73
Brett Kavanaugh	25	34	41
John Roberts	25	15	60
Sonia Sotomayor	34	15	52
Clarence Thomas	29	32	38

While knowledge about the justices is quite limited, partisans hold predictably different views of the justices. Republicans give net favorable ratings to justices appointed by Republican presidents and net unfavorable ratings to those appointed by Democratic presidents. Democrats do the opposite, with the exception of the case of Chief Justice John Roberts, who has a net favorable rating across all partisan groups. Table 5 shows the net approval-minus-disapproval by party identification.

 

Table 5: Net favorable-minus-unfavorable rating, by party identification

Justice	Republican	Independent	Democrat
Alito	16	-3	-19
Barrett	37	-12	-40
Gorsuch	24	2	-18
Jackson	-16	6	46
Kagan	-6	4	25
Kavanaugh	46	-16	-55
Roberts	19	6	6
Sotomayor	-9	15	52
Thomas	46	-4	-53

Pending cases

The public is skeptical of the permissibility of the use of race in admission to college programs, with 33% in favor of a decision that would ban the use of race and 17% opposed. The case is not yet on the top of the mind of most respondents, however, with 50% saying they haven’t heard anything about such a case or haven’t heard enough to have an opinion.

Polling on this topic since September 2021 has seen consistent opposition to the use of race in admissions. Table 6 (a) shows views including those who have not heard enough about the issue, and Table 6 (b) shows the percentages for only those with an opinion.

Table 6: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Rule that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit.

(a) Among all respondents

Poll dates	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor such a ruling	Oppose
9/7-16/21	33	53	13
3/14-24/22	33	49	17
9/7-14/22	50	37	13
11/15-22/22	42	41	16
1/9-20/23	49	35	16
3/13-22/23	50	33	17

(b) Among those with an opinion

Poll dates	Favor such a ruling	Oppose
9/7-16/21	81	19
3/14-24/22	75	25
9/7-14/22	74	26
11/15-22/22	72	28
1/9-20/23	68	32
3/13-22/23	66	34

There are substantial partisan differences on this issue as shown in Table 7, with majorities of Republicans and independents in favor of banning the use of race while a majority of Democrats are opposed, among those with an opinion about the case.

Table 7: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Rule that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit. By party identification.

(a) Among all respondents

Party ID	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor such a ruling	Oppose
Republican	46	45	8
Independent	52	35	13
Democrat	53	17	30

(b) Among those with an opinion

Party ID	Favor such a ruling	Oppose
Republican	84	16
Independent	72	28
Democrat	37	63

Another case, argued this past December, 303 Creative LLC v. Elenis, poses the question whether the religious beliefs or free speech rights of business owners can justify refusing to provide some services to LGBTQ customers. A plurality of those with an opinion, 33%, oppose a decision allowing such a business to refuse services, while 25% favor such a ruling. As with college admissions, a substantial number, here 42%, have not heard of this case or have not heard enough to have an opinion. The trend in opinion on this question is shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Decide that a business owner’s religious beliefs or free speech rights can justify refusing some services to gay people.

(a) Among all respondents

Poll dates	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor such a ruling	Oppose
3/14-24/22	29	28	43
9/7-14/22	44	21	35
11/15-22/22	35	25	40
1/9-20/23	43	24	33
3/13-22/23	42	25	33

(b) Among those with an opinion

Poll dates	Heard of case and favor such a ruling	Heard of and oppose
3/14-24/22	39	61
9/7-14/22	37	63
11/15-22/22	39	61
1/9-20/23	43	57
3/13-22/23	43	57

Prior decisions

In the current survey, 33% favor the June 2022 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, overturning Roe v. Wade, while 67% oppose that ruling. The November 2022 through March 2023 responses are shown in Table 9.

Table 9: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
11/15-22/22	33	66
1/9-20/23	35	64
3/13-22/23	33	67

Partisan differences are very large concerning the Dobbs decision, as shown in Table 10 for the March survey, with a majority of Republicans favoring the Dobbs decision and majorities of independents and Democrats opposed.

Table 10: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision? by party identification, March 2023

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	59	41
Independent	28	71
Democrat	12	88

Looking back to earlier decisions, a substantial majority—65%—favor the Court’s 2015 ruling establishing a right to same-sex marriage, while 35% are opposed. This trend is shown in Table 11.

 

Table 11: In 2015 the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
5/9-19/22	69	31
7/5-12/22	66	34
9/7-14/22	71	29
11/15-22/22	72	28
1/9-20/23	67	33
3/13-22/23	65	35

Partisan differences on the same-sex marriage decision are shown in Table 12.

Table 12: In 2015 the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage. How much do you favor or oppose this decision? by party identification, March 2023

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	41	59
Independent	70	30
Democrat	82	18

A large majority of the public favors the 2020 Supreme Court ruling that federal civil rights law protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination. The trend for this question is shown in Table 13.

Table 13: In 2020, the Supreme Court ruled that a federal civil rights law protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
5/9-19/22	83	16
7/5-12/22	84	16
9/7-14/22	87	12
11/15-22/22	83	17
3/13-22/23	80	20

While a large majority favor anti-discrimination laws in the workplace, a majority, 70%, say transgender athletes should be required to compete on teams that match the sex they were assigned at birth, not the gender they identify with, while 30% oppose such a requirement.

There are substantial differences, by age, in opinion about transgender athletic competition, although a majority in all age groups favor restricting such competition, as shown in Table 14.

 

Table 14: Require that transgender athletes compete on teams that match the sex they were assigned at birth, not the gender they identify with

Age	Favor	Oppose
18-29	53	47
30-44	69	31
45-59	75	25
60+	78	21

Confidence in the Court and other institutions

Confidence in the Court has declined since 2019, when 37% said they had a great deal or quite a lot of confidence. In this poll, 28% have similar confidence. Those with very little or no confidence increased from 20% in September 2019 to 32% in March 2023. The full trend is shown in Table 15.

Table 15: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? The U.S. Supreme Court.

Poll dates	Great deal/quite a lot	Some	Very little/None
9/3-13/19	37	42	20
9/8-15/20	39	45	16
7/5-12/22	28	28	44
9/7-14/22	30	34	36
11/15-22/22	30	36	34
1/9-20/23	31	38	31
3/13-22/23	28	40	32

Confidence in a number of institutions is shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one?

Institution	Great deal/quite a lot	Some	Very little/None
The police	44	33	23
The FBI	34	35	31
The courts in your community	32	44	24
The US Supreme Court	28	40	32
The presidency	26	34	40
Congress	15	43	42

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted March 13-22, 2023, interviewing 1,004 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.8 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available at the Marquette Law Poll website. Some items from this survey are held for later release.

Wording of questions about future and past Supreme Court decisions: These items do not attempt to exactly frame the particular issues in specific cases but rather address the topic in more general terms.

The wording of questions about cases before the Court in the October 2022 Term include:

Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion?

The wording of questions about previous decisions include:

Opinion of Dobbs decision, striking down Roe v. Wade

Opinion of same-sex marriage decision:

Opinion of anti-discrimination law for gay and transgender workers

In 2020 the Supreme Court ruled that a federal civil rights law protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds 53% of those polled say they heard or read a lot about the election of a new Speaker of the House of Representatives, while 29% say they heard a little and 18% heard nothing at all.

Republicans and Democrats were about equally likely to say they had heard a lot about the election of the new speaker, Rep. Kevin McCarthy, while independents were about half as likely to have heard a lot, as shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: The election of a new Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives (Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these?)

Party ID	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
Total	53	29	18
Republican	56	29	15
Independent	28	35	37
Democrat	60	26	14

This Marquette Law School Poll was conducted Jan. 9-20, 2023. The survey interviewed 1,000 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-3.8 percentage points.

Among all respondents, 41% say they think the Republicans in the House can unite to govern effectively after the prolonged voting for speaker, while 58% believe Republicans cannot unite. Republicans are much more positive about the prospect for party unity than are independents and Democrats, as shown in Table 2.

Table 2: Do you think the Republicans in the House of Representatives can unite to govern effectively, or were the divisions over the election of a Speaker of the House an indication that they cannot unite to govern effectively?

Party ID	Can unite	Cannot unite	Skipped/Ref
Total	41	58	0
Republican	67	33	0
Independent	32	66	2
Democrat	20	80	0

McCarthy is not yet well known to many Americans, with 39% saying they don’t know enough to have an opinion of him. He is viewed favorably by 19% and unfavorably by 42%. Republicans are much more favorable to McCarthy than are independents or Democrats, but it is notable that fewer Democrats lack an opinion of McCarthy than do Republicans, as shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Kevin McCarthy: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Party ID	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Total	19	42	39
Republican	38	20	43
Independent	5	31	61
Democrat	6	67	27

Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi is better known than McCarthy, with only 12% saying they don’t know enough to have an opinion of Pelosi. She is seen favorably by 31% and unfavorably by 57%. There are sharp partisan differences in views of Pelosi, as shown in Table 4. While the difference is small, Republicans are slightly more likely to have an opinion of Pelosi than are Democrats.

Table 4: Nancy Pelosi: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Party ID	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Total	31	57	12
Republican	3	92	5
Independent	21	44	33
Democrat	61	30	9

With a divided Congress, we find that approval of the Republican House majority and Democratic Senate majority is virtually identical, but partisan differences are quite large. Forty-two percent approve of how the House Republican majority is handling its job, while 43% approve of how the Senate Democratic majority is doing its. Table 5 shows approval of the House and Senate majorities by party identification.

Table 5: Approval of House and Senate majority party performance

(a) Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republican majority in the House of Representatives is handling its job?

Party ID	Approve	Disapprove
Total	42	57
Republican	71	28
Independent	30	64
Democrat	19	81

(b) Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate is handling its job?

Party ID	Approve	Disapprove
Total	43	56
Republican	8	92
Independent	31	64
Democrat	80	20

Ukraine

Thirty-two percent say they have heard or read a lot about Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s speech to a joint session of the U.S. Congress on Dec. 21, while 43% have heard a little and 25% have heard nothing at all. Democrats were slightly more likely to have heard a lot than Republicans, while independents were much less likely to have heard much, as shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s speech to a joint session of the U.S. Congress: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these?

Party ID	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
Total	32	43	25
Republican	31	46	24
Independent	18	40	42
Democrat	38	43	20

Awareness of news about the Russian invasion of Ukraine is much higher, with 69% having heard a lot about this, 26% a little, and 4% nothing at all. There is little difference in awareness of the Russian invasion between Democrats and Republicans, although independents are considerably less attentive to this topic, as shown in Table 7.

 

Table 7: The Russian invasion of Ukraine: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these?

Party ID	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
Total	69	26	4
Republican	73	24	2
Independent	49	37	14
Democrat	74	24	2

U.S. military aid to Ukraine has emerged as an issue with a partisan divide in recent months. In January, 29% say the U.S. is providing too much support to Ukraine, 24% say the U.S. is not giving enough support, and 46% say the U.S. is giving the right amount of aid. These opinions are only slightly changed from November, as shown in Table 8.

Table 8: When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine?

Poll dates	Too much support	Not enough support	About the right amount of support
11/15-22/22	32	23	45
1/9-20/23	29	24	46

Table 9 shows partisan differences on aid to Ukraine in the January poll. Just under half of Republicans, 47%, say the U.S. is providing too much aid, while 25% of independents and 14% of Democrats agree.

Table 9: When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine?

Party ID	Too much support	Not enough support	About the right amount of support
Total	29	24	46
Republican	47	15	38
Independent	25	33	39
Democrat	14	29	57

A majority of respondents say that what happens in the Ukraine conflict matters a great deal or some to life in the U.S., while about a quarter say it matters not much or not at all, as shown in Table 10. There are modest partisan differences on this question, but large majorities of all partisan camps say that it matters either a great deal or some to the U.S.

Table 10: How much do you think what happens in the Russia-Ukraine conflict matters to life in the United States?

Party ID	A great deal	Some	Not much	Not at all
Total	31	47	16	7
Republican	24	49	18	9
Independent	29	46	17	8
Democrat	37	46	13	4

On the more general question of U.S. involvement in world affairs, 59% say it is better for the country to take an active part, while 41% say the U.S. should stay out of world affairs. Independents are especially skeptical of U.S. involvement in the world, with 54% saying we should stay out and a minority, 42%, saying we should take an active part. Republicans are evenly split on this nation’s international involvement, and Democrats are substantially in favor of a U.S. role in the world, as shown in Table 11.

Table 11: Do you think it will be better for the future of the country if we take an active part in world affairs, or if we stay out of world affairs?

Party ID	Take an active part in world affairs	Stay out of world affairs
Total	59	41
Republican	50	50
Independent	42	54
Democrat	73	27

Favorability to political figures

While the 2024 presidential primaries remain a year away, public perception of possible candidates helps to understand the dynamics of the coming election. Table 12 shows the favorability ratings of five Republicans, including two prominent governors. This table is based on answers from registered voters who are Republicans or independents who say they lean to the Republican party. The margin of error for Republican registered voters is +/-6.1 percentage points.

Former President Donald Trump is by far the best known, with former Vice President Mike Pence and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis the next best known. Despite his higher rate of “haven’t heard enough,” DeSantis has a favorability rating one point higher than Trump. The two governors, including Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, despite impressive wins in the November midterms, are far less well known, though with positive net favorability among those with an opinion.

Table 12: Favorability to Republican political figures, among registered voters who are Republicans or independents who lean Republican

Person	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
Donald Trump	70	28	2
Mike Pence	53	33	14
Ron DeSantis	71	10	19
Greg Abbott	46	7	46
Brian Kemp	23	10	67

On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden is nearly universally known, followed by Vice President Kamala Harris and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, with other Democrats less well known, as shown in Table 13. Here, the table is based on registered voters who are Democrats or are independents who say they lean Democratic. The margin of error for Democratic registered voters is +/-6.1 percentage points.

 

Table 13: Favorability to Democratic political figures, among registered voters who are Democrats or independents who lean Democrat

Person	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
Joe Biden	83	16	1
Kamala Harris	67	23	10
Bernie Sanders	75	14	11
Pete Buttigieg	53	13	34
Gretchen Whitmer	35	10	54

Biden has a very high favorable rating among Democrats, some 13 points higher than Trump’s favorability with Republicans. Harris and Sanders are equally well known, with a slightly higher favorability for Sanders. U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg is less well known, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer much less well known. All these Democrats have strong net favorability among these partisan voters.

Outlook for 2024

DeSantis has pulled ahead of Biden in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, with 45% support for DeSantis and 38% support for Biden. DeSantis has increased his support in polling since January 2022, while Biden’s support has declined in this poll. Some 17% say they would prefer someone else or would not vote. The trend in support is shown in Table 14. The margin of error for all registered voters is +/- 4 percentage points.

Table 14: If the 2024 election for president were held today between [Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the Republican] and [President Joe Biden, the Democrat] would you vote for [Ron DeSantis] or for [Joe Biden]? (among registered voters)

Poll dates	Ron DeSantis	Joe Biden	Someone else	Wouldn’t vote
1/10-21/22	34	43	17	5
3/14-24/22	35	39	19	5
9/7-14/22	38	43	15	5
11/15-22/22	42	42	11	4
1/9-20/23	45	38	13	4

In this poll, Trump has improved his standing against Biden; that matchup is tied with 40% for each of them. About 20% say they prefer someone else or would not vote. The trend in preference between Biden and Trump is shown in Table 15.

 

Table 15: If the 2024 election for president were held today between [Former President Donald Trump, the Republican] and [President Joe Biden, the Democrat] would you vote for [Donald Trump] or for [Joe Biden]? (among registered voters)

Poll dates	Donald Trump	Joe Biden	Someone else	Wouldn’t vote
11/1-10/21	35	43	18	4
1/10-21/22	33	45	18	4
3/14-24/22	38	43	16	4
9/7-14/22	36	42	19	3
11/15-22/22	34	44	19	4
1/9-20/23	40	40	17	3

Both Republicans and Democrats are divided over Trump and Biden as their party’s nominees in 2024. Among Republicans and independents who lean Republican (hereafter “Republicans”), 52% would like to see Trump run in 2024, while 48% said they would not like him to run. (Trump announced his candidacy for the 2024 Republican nomination on Nov. 15.) In the November Marquette poll, 55% wanted Trump to run and 45% did not. The full trend since Nov. 2021 is shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Would you like to see Donald Trump run for president in 2024, or not? (among registered voters who are Republicans or independents who lean Republican)

Poll dates	Yes	No
11/1-10/21	60	40
1/10-21/22	56	44
3/14-24/22	61	39
5/9-19/22	61	38
7/5-12/22	64	35
9/7-14/22	60	40
11/15-22/22	55	45
1/9-20/23	52	48

Among registered Republican voters, 64% say they would like Ron DeSantis to run for president in 2024, while 34% would not like him to run. This gives DeSantis higher support than Trump for a presidential bid among Republican voters. This is the first time this question has been asked about DeSantis.

While it is likely there will be a number of Republican candidates for the 2024 nomination, when asked about a choice between only Trump and DeSantis, 64% prefer DeSantis and 36% prefer Trump.

There are small differences in support for Trump and DeSantis among Republican registered voters, with the subgroup of those who identify as “Republican” a bit more supportive of Trump and less of DeSantis relative to other groups of Republicans. Those who identify as “independent” but say they lean to the Republican party are a few points more supportive of DeSantis relative to other subgroups. Yet all subgroups give majority support to DeSantis, as shown in Table 17.

Table 17: If it were a choice between just the two of them, whom would you prefer as the Republican nominee for president in 2024: [Donald Trump] or [Ron DeSantis]? (among registered voters who are Republicans or independents who lean Republican)

Republican identification	Donald Trump	Ron DeSantis
All Republicans & Leaners	36	64
Republican	38	62
Lean Republican	31	68

Among registered voters who are Democrats or independents who lean Democratic, 49% would like to see Biden run in 2024 and 51% would not. There has been little change in support for a Biden candidacy, as shown in Table 18. It is notable that Democrats are evenly split on this question, despite the more than 80% favorability rating they give Biden in Table 13 above.

Table 18: Would you like to see Joe Biden run for president in 2024, or not? (among registered voters who are Democrats or independents who lean Democratic)

Poll dates	Yes	No
9/7-14/22	44	56
11/15-22/22	49	51
1/9-20/23	49	51

Confidence in the 2022 and 2020 elections

Sixty-five percent say they are very or somewhat confident in the accuracy of the 2022 elections, while 34% are not too or not at all confident in the results. Republicans remain less confident in election outcomes than independents or Democrats, as shown in Table 19.

Table 19: How confident are you that, across the country, the votes for state and national offices were accurately cast and counted in the elections this November 2022?

Party ID	Very confident	Somewhat confident	Not too confident	Not at all confident
Total	35	30	23	11
Republican	10	31	38	21
Independent	15	35	34	13
Democrat	67	28	3	1

Doubts about the 2020 election, especially among Republicans, are higher than for the 2022 vote, but majorities of all adults believe that both elections were accurately cast and counted. Table 20 shows confidence in the 2020 election and by party.

 

Table 20: How confident are you that, across the country, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election?

Party ID	Very confident	Somewhat confident	Not too confident	Not at all confident
Total	37	22	22	18
Republican	8	22	35	35
Independent	18	29	34	16
Democrat	71	21	5	2

Biden job approval

Biden’s job approval dipped by two points since November, with 43% approval and 56% disapproval. The trend in presidential approval since July 2021 is shown in Table 21.

News that classified documents had been found in Biden’s University of Pennsylvania office broke on Jan. 9, as this poll began interviewing. On Jan. 12, the Justice Department appointed a special counsel to investigate “possible unauthorized removal and retention of classified documents or other records.” These developments came too late for inclusion in questions in this survey, although the news may have affected Biden’s approval rating during interviewing from Jan. 9-20.

Table 21: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
7/16-26/21	58	42
9/7-16/21	48	52
11/1-10/21	49	51
1/10-21/22	46	53
3/14-24/22	44	55
5/9-19/22	42	57
7/5-12/22	36	64
9/7-14/22	45	55
11/15-22/22	45	55
1/9-20/23	43	56

House Select Committee on Jan. 6

The House Select Committee on Jan. 6 issued its final report on Dec. 22. In the January poll, 30% of respondents said they had heard a lot about the report, 45% said they heard a little, and 25% said they heard nothing at all.

Since July, there has been no change in perception whether the House committee has presented convincing evidence that Trump sought to delay certification of the election results, as shown in Table 22.

 

Table 22: Has the House Select Committee on January 6th presented convincing evidence that Donald Trump sought to prevent or delay certification of the results of the 2020 presidential election, or has the evidence not been convincing?

Poll dates	Has been convincing	Has not been convincing
7/5-12/22	52	48
9/7-14/22	52	48
1/9-20/23	52	48

There has been only slightly more change in the belief that Trump bears responsibility for the violence of some of his supporters on Jan. 6, 2021, with a five-point decline in the percentage saying he bears a lot of responsibility.

Table 23: How much responsibility, if any, should Donald Trump bear for the violence of some of his supporters in the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021?

Poll dates	A lot	A little	None at all
7/5-12/22	52	18	30
9/7-14/22	50	19	30
1/9-20/23	47	22	31

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted Jan. 9-20, 2023, interviewing 1,000 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points, and 876 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. The registered voter Republican subsample of 382 respondents has a margin of error of +/-6.1 percentage points, and the registered voter Democratic subsample of 392 respondents has a margin of error is +/-6.1 percentage points.

Certain other data from this survey (those about public views of the Supreme Court) were released yesterday, Jan. 25, and can be found on the Marquette Law School Poll website.

Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available online.