MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds approval of the U.S. Supreme Court has fallen to 38%, while 61% disapprove of how the Court is handling its job. In May, 44% approved and 55% disapproved, and in March, 54% approved and 45% disapproved.

By contrast, approval of the Court stood at 66% in September 2020, with 33% disapproval then. As recently as July 2021, the Court had a 60% approval rating. Table 1 shows the trend in approval since September 2020. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: Supreme Court job-approval trend, Sept. 2020-July 2022

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
9/8-15/20	66	33
7/16-26/21	60	39
9/7-16/21	49	50
11/1-10/21	54	46
1/10-21/22	52	46
3/14-24/22	54	45
5/9-19/22	44	55
7/5-12/22	38	61

The latest Marquette Law Poll Supreme Court survey was conducted July 5-12, 2022, shortly after the final decisions from the October 2021 Supreme Court term were released. The survey interviewed 1,003 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points.

The sharp decline in approval in July follows the Court’s decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health, overruling the 1973 Roe v Wade decision, which announced a federal constitutional right to abortion in all 50 states. In March, prior to the leak of the draft opinion overturning Roe, 65% of those who favored striking down Roe approved of how the Court was handling its job, while 45% of those opposed to overturning Roe approved. Following the leaked opinion in May, approval rose sharply among those who favored overturning Roe, to 84%, and fell among those opposed, to 25%. In July, approval remained at 83% for those in favor of the Dobbs decision but fell even further among those opposed to striking down Roe, to 11%. Table 2 shows the full trend in approval of the Court’s job performance, by position on Roe.

Table 2: Approval of the Supreme Court’s job performance, by favor or oppose overturning Roe v. Wade

Position on Roe	Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
Favor overturn Roe	3/14-24/22	65	34
Favor overturn Roe	5/9-19/22	84	16
Favor overturn Roe	7/5-12/22	83	17
Oppose overturn Roe	3/14-24/22	45	54
Oppose overturn Roe	5/9-19/22	25	74
Oppose overturn Roe	7/5-12/22	11	89

Approval of the Court is more sharply polarized along party lines than it was in March. In March, partisan differences were modest, with a majority of both Republicans (64%) and Democrats (52%) approving of the Court’s handling of its job. This changed after the leaked draft opinion in May, with approval among Republicans rising to 71% and approval among Democrats falling to 28%. This divide widened further after the Court ruling was handed down on June 24, with approval among Republicans remaining high at 67% and virtually collapsing among Democrats to 15%. Approval among independents also declined from March to May, but did not change further after the June decision. Table 3 shows approval by party identification in the March, May, and July surveys.

Table 3: Court approval, by party identification, March, May, and July 2022

Party ID	Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
Republican	3/14-24/22	64	36
Republican	5/9-19/22	71	29
Republican	7/5-12/22	67	32
Independent	3/14-24/22	51	48
Independent	5/9-19/22	38	61
Independent	7/5-12/22	39	60
Democrat	3/14-24/22	52	48
Democrat	5/9-19/22	28	70
Democrat	7/5-12/22	15	85

Self-described ideology is strongly associated with approval of the Court, which also increased in polarization from March to July, as shown in Table 4. Approval of the Court’s job performance increased among those who describe themselves as “very conservative” or “conservative,” while it decreased among those who consider themselves “moderate,” “liberal,” or “very liberal.” The difference in approval rate between the most conservative and most liberal respondents is now 75 percentage points, up from 36 percentage points in March.

Table 4: Court approval by ideology, March, May, and July 2022

Ideology	Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
Very conservative	3/14-24/22	65	35
Very conservative	5/9-19/22	75	25
Very conservative	7/5-12/22	79	19
Somewhat conservative	3/14-24/22	68	31
Somewhat conservative	5/9-19/22	72	27
Somewhat conservative	7/5-12/22	71	28
Moderate	3/14-24/22	58	40
Moderate	5/9-19/22	36	63
Moderate	7/5-12/22	29	71
Somewhat liberal	3/14-24/22	40	60
Somewhat liberal	5/9-19/22	28	72
Somewhat liberal	7/5-12/22	9	90
Very liberal	3/14-24/22	29	71
Very liberal	5/9-19/22	9	88
Very liberal	7/5-12/22	4	96

Support for and opposition to overturning Roe

Opinion on overturning Roe v. Wade has only slightly changed in the wake of the Court’s decision in June. Among those with an opinion on the issue, 36% favor the overturning of Roe, while 64% oppose striking it down. That is a 5-percentage-point increase among those who favor overturning Roe and a 5-percentage-point decrease among those opposed to striking down Roe, compared to opinion in May, when 31% were in favor of such a ruling and 69% were opposed. Table 5 shows the trend on this question since September 2019.

Table 5: Favor or oppose overturning Roe v. Wade, trend among those with an opinion, 2019-2022

Poll dates	Favor overturn Roe	Oppose overturn Roe
9/3-13/19	32	68
9/8-15/20	37	63
9/7-16/21	28	72
11/1-10/21	30	70
1/10-21/22	28	72
3/14-24/22	32	68
5/9-19/22	31	69
7/5-12/22	36	64

Substantial partisan divides on Roe have changed little from March through July. Table 6 shows views on overturning Roe by party. Opinion among independents fluctuated modestly, while totals for Republicans and Democrats hardly changed across the three surveys.

Table 6: Opinion on overturning Roe, by party identification, March, May and July 2022

Party ID	Poll dates	Favor overturn Roe	Oppose overturn Roe
Republican	3/14-24/22	68	32
Republican	5/9-19/22	69	31
Republican	7/5-12/22	71	29
Independent	3/14-24/22	31	69
Independent	5/9-19/22	24	76
Independent	7/5-12/22	36	64
Democrat	3/14-24/22	8	92
Democrat	5/9-19/22	5	95
Democrat	7/5-12/22	9	91

A large majority, 81%, said they had read or heard a lot about the decision to overturn Roe, while 15% said they had read a little and 3% said they had read nothing at all.

In May, following the leaked draft opinion, 40% said they had heard a lot about that, 36% had heard a little, and 24% said they had read or heard nothing at all.

More than three-quarters of each partisan group say they have read or heard a lot about the decision overturning Roe. This is considerably larger in each partisan group than those who heard a lot about the leaked draft opinion in May, when half or less of each partisan group had heard a lot about the draft opinion. The amount read or heard about the leaked draft and the final decision by party is shown in Table 7.

Table 7: How much read or heard about the leaked draft opinion, by party identification, May and July 2022

(a) May, heard about leaked draft opinion on Roe

Party ID	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
Republican	43	39	17
Independent	31	37	32
Democrat	51	32	17

(b) July, heard about Court ruling overturning Roe

Party ID	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
Republican	81	17	0
Independent	76	18	5
Democrat	89	9	2

Perceptions of Court ideology

Over the past three years, perceptions of the Court in ideological terms have shifted substantially in the conservative direction. In this most recent poll, less than half as many see the Court as “moderate” compared to perceptions in September 2019, and almost seven times as many say it is “very conservative” as was the case in September 2019. Specifically, Table 8 shows the trend in perceived ideology of the Court: Over this time, the percentage saying the Court is “moderate” has fallen from 50% in September 2019 to 21% in July 2022, while the percentage saying the Court is “very conservative” has increased from 5% to 34%. While these shifts continued in July, the trend was well established prior to the Court’s decisions this summer.

Table 8: Perceived ideology of the Supreme Court, Sept. 2019-July 2022

Poll dates	Very conservative	Somewhat conservative	Moderate	Somewhat liberal	Very liberal
9/3-13/19	5	33	50	9	3
9/8-15/20	5	30	54	9	2
7/16-26/21	13	37	42	6	1
9/7-16/21	16	35	40	7	2
11/1-10/21	15	35	39	8	1
1/10-21/22	17	38	35	8	2
3/14-24/22	15	37	36	10	2
5/9-19/22	23	33	34	8	2
7/5-12/22	34	33	21	7	3

Second Amendment

The Court ruled in June, in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. Bruen, that the Second Amendment protects the right to possess a gun outside the home. A majority of respondents, 56%, favor this ruling, while 44% oppose this expansion of gun rights, among those with an opinion. Compared to the May survey, this was a 10-percentage-point decrease in those favoring the ruling and a 10-point increase in those opposed. The trend in opinion of this issue, which had been quite stable since September 2021, is shown in Table 9.

 

Table 9: Favor Second Amendment right to possess a gun outside the home, among those with an opinion, Sept. 2021-July 2022

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
9/7-16/21	63	37
11/1-10/21	65	35
1/10-21/22	67	33
3/14-24/22	63	37
5/9-19/22	66	34
7/5-12/22	56	44

Substantial majorities of both Republicans and independents favor this ruling, while a large majority of Democrats oppose it, as shown in Table 10. Democrats became substantially more opposed to this ruling in July, after the decision, while independent support remained a majority but declined by 10 percentage points. Republican support rose to a near-unanimous 95%.

Table 10: Favor ruling that there is a Second Amendment right to possess a gun outside the home by party identification, May-July 2022

Party ID	Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
Republican	5/9-19/22	89	11
Republican	7/5-12/22	95	5
Independent	5/9-19/22	71	29
Independent	7/5-12/22	61	39
Democrat	5/9-19/22	31	69
Democrat	7/5-12/22	18	82

In this July poll, awareness of the decision in Bruen was substantially lower than awareness of the Dobbs decision, with 47% saying they had read or heard a lot about the Second Amendment ruling, 36% saying they read or heard a little, and 16% saying they heard nothing at all.

Partisan differences in awareness of the decision were modest, as shown in Table 11, with Democrats 11 percentage points more likely than Republicans to have heard a lot and independents only slightly less likely to have heard a lot than Republicans.

Table 11: How much have you read or heard about the Second Amendment decision, by party identification, July 2022

Party ID	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
Republican	46	37	17
Independent	41	39	20
Democrat	57	32	11

Support for possession of a gun outside the home by gun ownership is shown in Table 12, with a large majority of gun households in favor of expanded Second Amendment rights, and a small majority of those without a gun in the home opposed.

Table 12: Favor Second Amendment right to possess a gun outside the home, by gun ownership, May 2022

Gun ownership	Favor	Oppose
Gun household	72	28
Not gun household	46	54

Public funding for attendance at religious schools

In the latest of a series of recent cases in which the Court has expanded ways that public funding for religious schools could increase, the Court ruled in Carson v. Makin that Maine cannot exclude tuition support to students attending religious schools that is otherwise available to students attending non-religious private schools. Unlike the decisions on abortion and gun rights, a majority of respondents say they have heard nothing about this case (36%) or have heard of it but do not know enough to give an opinion (23%). Of those who do have an opinion, 59% favor the decision and 41% oppose it. When asked about this possible decision in September 2021, 69% favored a ruling in favor of providing tuition for attendance at religious schools in the circumstances described and 31% were opposed, among those with an opinion.

While the salience of this decision is much less than for others, increased partisan polarization is also apparent. Table 13 shows how the partisan divide has increased from September 2021 to July 2022.

Table 13: Favor or oppose public tuition support for religious schools, by party identification, among those with an opinion, Sept. 2021 & July 2022

Party ID	Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
Republican	9/7-16/21	91	9
Republican	7/5-12/22	87	13
Independent	9/7-16/21	70	30
Independent	7/5-12/22	64	36
Democrat	9/7-16/21	44	56
Democrat	7/5-12/22	28	72

In July, support for this ruling is highest among born-again Protestants, followed by Roman Catholics and mainline Protestants. A bare majority of those with other religious affiliations favor this ruling, while those without a religious attachment are the only group with a majority opposed to the decision, as shown in Table 14. Compared to September 2021, the percentage favoring this decision rose among born-again Protestants, while declining among other religious groups.

 

Table 14: Favor or oppose public tuition support for students attending religious schools, by religion, among those with an opinion, July 2022

Religion	Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
Born-again Protestant	9/7-16/21	86	14
Born-again Protestant	7/5-12/22	92	8
Mainline Protestant	9/7-16/21	70	30
Mainline Protestant	7/5-12/22	61	39
Roman Catholic	9/7-16/21	84	16
Roman Catholic	7/5-12/22	79	21
No religion	9/7-16/21	47	53
No religion	7/5-12/22	32	68
Other religion	9/7-16/21	63	37
Other religion	7/5-12/22	51	49

Confidence in the Court and other institutions

Confidence in the Court has decreased since 2019, although the public continues to express more confidence in it than in Congress or the presidency. Table 15 shows the trend in confidence in the three branches of the federal government since September 2019. The percentage saying they have little or no confidence in the Court has more than doubled since 2019, while confidence in the other institutions (lower to begin with) has fluctuated but not changed so substantially.

Table 15: Confidence in branches of the federal government, 2019-2022

(a) Supreme Court

Poll dates	Great deal/quite a lot	Some	Very little/none at all	DK/Ref
9/3-13/19	37	42	20	1
9/8-15/20	39	45	16	0
7/5-12/22	28	28	44	0

(b) Congress

Poll dates	Great deal/quite a lot	Some	Very little/none at all	DK/Ref
9/3-13/19	10	39	51	0
9/8-15/20	13	42	44	1
7/5-12/22	10	35	56	0

(c) The Presidency

Poll dates	Great deal/quite a lot	Some	Very little/none at all	DK/Ref
9/3-13/19	28	25	47	0
9/8-15/20	31	23	45	0
7/5-12/22	21	31	48	0

As with approval of the Court’s job performance, confidence in the Court has become much more polarized by party. Confidence in the presidency has shifted by party sharply with partisan control of that office, while views of Congress have fluctuated but not trended as much. Table 16 shows the relationship of party and confidence for each institution.

Table 16: Confidence in branches of the federal government, by party identification, 2019-2022

(a) Supreme Court

Party ID	Poll dates	Great deal/quite a lot	Some	Very little/none at all	DK/Ref
Republican	9/3-13/19	53	32	14	2
Republican	9/8-15/20	50	42	8	0
Republican	7/5-12/22	51	30	19	0
Independent	9/3-13/19	28	47	24	0
Independent	9/8-15/20	34	46	19	0
Independent	7/5-12/22	28	29	43	0
Democrat	9/3-13/19	34	44	21	0
Democrat	9/8-15/20	36	45	19	0
Democrat	7/5-12/22	10	24	66	0

(b) Congress

Party ID	Poll dates	Great deal/quite a lot	Some	Very little/none at all	DK/Ref
Republican	9/3-13/19	9	37	54	0
Republican	9/8-15/20	17	40	43	0
Republican	7/5-12/22	11	36	52	0
Independent	9/3-13/19	7	34	59	0
Independent	9/8-15/20	6	39	53	2
Independent	7/5-12/22	7	29	63	1
Democrat	9/3-13/19	13	48	39	0
Democrat	9/8-15/20	16	46	38	0
Democrat	7/5-12/22	11	41	48	0

(c) The Presidency

Party ID	Poll dates	Great deal/quite a lot	Some	Very little/none at all	DK/Ref
Republican	9/3-13/19	69	20	12	0
Republican	9/8-15/20	70	21	8	0
Republican	7/5-12/22	14	19	67	0
Independent	9/3-13/19	19	33	47	0
Independent	9/8-15/20	21	29	50	0
Independent	7/5-12/22	16	29	55	0
Democrat	9/3-13/19	7	19	73	1
Democrat	9/8-15/20	9	20	71	0
Democrat	7/5-12/22	32	44	23	0

The percentage of those who say that the justices are making decisions based mainly on the law has declined from 64% in September 2019 to 48% in July 2022, while those saying that justices’ decisions are based mainly on politics has increased from 35% to 52% over the same time. The full trend is shown in Table 17.

Table 17: What most often motivates Supreme Court justices’ decisions: mainly the law or mainly politics? 2019-2022

Poll dates	Mainly politics	Mainly the law
9/3-13/19	35	64
9/8-15/20	37	62
7/16-26/21	29	71
9/7-16/21	39	61
11/1-10/21	30	70
1/10-21/22	47	53
7/5-12/22	52	48

While views of the basis of the justices’ decisions have turned toward politics, people view the decisions of “the Court” as an institution as even more politically motivated. When asked, “In general, do you think that the Supreme Court is mainly motivated by politics or mainly motivated by the law?”—rather than “In general, what most often motivates Supreme Court justices’ decisions?” (with the options being “Mainly politics” and “Mainly the law”)—a higher percentage, by some 10 percentage points, say the Court is motivated by politics. This is shown in Table 18 (as compared with Table 17).

Table 18: Do you think that the Supreme Court is mainly motivated by politics or mainly motivated by the law?, 2022

Poll dates	Mainly politics	Mainly the law	Web blank
1/10-21/22	57	43	0
7/5-12/22	61	39	0

In striking down Roe v. Wade, the Court overturned a longstanding precedent. The extent to which precedent should be followed has been the subject of questions during confirmation hearings for Court nominees for some time, including specifically with respect to Roe. For the public, however, following precedent has been less important than overturning a ruling the majority of the Court believes to have been wrongly decided. In the wake of the overturning of Roe, the public now gives more weight than previously to precedent, but a still solid two-to-one majority thinks the Court should be free to strike down precedents. Table 19 shows this trend.

Table 19: Should justices of the Supreme Court follow previous decisions whenever possible or should the Court overturn previous decisions if a majority of the Court believes the case was wrongly decided?, 2020-2022

Poll dates	Follow previous decisions	Overturn if a majority think it was wrongly decided
9/8-15/20	18	81
9/7-16/21	26	74
7/5-12/22	33	66

While approval of the Court’s job performance and confidence in the Court have declined, as set forth earlier in this release, there has not been any change in support for expanding the size of the Court over the past year, and only a small increase since 2019. Opinion is evenly divided on increasing the number of justices, as shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Support for increasing the number of justices, 2019-2022

Poll dates	Expand Court	Do not expand
9/3-13/19	42	56
9/8-15/20	46	53
7/16-26/21	48	51
9/7-16/21	48	51
11/1-10/21	48	52
7/5-12/22	49	51

There has been a modest increase in support for the Court’s considering public opinion when making decisions: from a small majority in 2020 saying public opinion should be ignored to a similar small majority in 2022 saying the Court should consider public opinion, as shown in Table 21.

Table 21: Should Court consider public opinion when deciding cases, 2020-2022

Poll dates	Should consider public opinion	Should ignore public opinion
9/8-15/20	44	55
9/7-16/21	41	59
7/5-12/22	54	46

Opinion of same-sex marriage and LGBTQ discrimination decisions

A large majority (66%) of respondents favor the 2015 Supreme Court decision that ruled the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage, while 34% oppose that ruling.

An even larger majority (84%) favor the 2020 Supreme Court ruling that federal civil rights law protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination, while 16% oppose that decision. Table 22 shows these opinions by party identification.

Table 22: Favor same-sex marriage and LGBTQ anti-discrimination rulings, by party identification, July 2022

a) Same-sex marriage decision

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	45	55
Independent	64	36
Democrat	84	16

(b) LGBTQ anti-discrimination decision

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	68	32
Independent	85	15
Democrat	93	7

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted July 5-12, 2022, interviewing 1,003 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law School Poll website. Some items from this survey are held for later release.

Wording of questions about recent Supreme Court decisions: These items do not attempt to exactly frame the particular issues in specific cases but rather address the topic in more general terms. (Prior to the decisions, these were asked as possible future decisions with descriptions identical to those here.)

Do you favor or oppose the following recent Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion?

Opinion of same-sex marriage decision:

Opinion of decision that anti-discrimination laws protect LGBTQ people:

In 2020 the Supreme Court ruled that a federal civil rights law protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds close races shaping up in both Republican and Democratic gubernatorial and U.S. Senate primaries in August, as well as in the November U.S. Senate race. The poll also finds that incumbent Gov. Tony Evers has an early advantage in the general election for governor.

In the first Marquette Law School Poll conducted since he entered the race in April, Tim Michels is the choice of 27% of Republicans (including independents who lean Republican) and independents who say they will vote in the GOP primary for governor. Rebecca Kleefisch is supported by 26%, Kevin Nicholson is supported by 10%, Tim Ramthun is the choice of 3%, and Adam Fischer is supported by less than 0.5%. A substantial 32% of Republican primary voters remain undecided, down from 46% who were undecided in the Marquette Law School Poll conducted in April.

In the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Mandela Barnes receives support of 25% and Alex Lasry is supported by 21% among Democrats (including independents who lean Democratic) and independents who say they will vote in the Democratic primary. Sarah Godlewski is the choice of 9%, and Tom Nelson holds 7%. The other seven candidates received 1% or less support.

Many Democratic primary voters remain undecided, with 36% saying they don’t know how they will vote, which is less than the 48% who were undecided in the April survey.

The survey was conducted June 14-20, 2022, interviewing 803 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points. The margin of error for Democratic primary voters is 6.2 percentage points and for Republican primary voters is 6.3 percentage points.

Table 1 shows the trends in support for the Republican primary for governor since February. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted at the top.)

Table 1: Republican primary preferences, U.S. Senate, February-June 2022

Primary choice	June	April	February
Michels	27	NA	NA
Kleefisch	26	32	30
Nicholson	10	10	8
Ramthun	3	4	5
Other	2	3	1
Fischer	*	NA	NA
Will not vote	0	3	1
Don’t know	32	46	54
Refused	0	1	2
* indicates less than .5% but more than 0

Table 2 shows the trends in support for the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate since February.

Table 2: Democratic primary preferences, U.S. Senate, February-June 2022

Primary choice	June	April	February
Barnes	25	19	23
Lasry	21	16	13
Godlewski	9	7	3
Nelson	7	5	5
Peckarsky	1	1	0
Olikara	*	0	0
Lewis	*	1	2
Murphy	*	*	2
Lee	0	0	0
Rumbaugh	0	0	0
Williams	0	*	*
Battino	NA	NA	1
Will not vote	0	3	3
Don’t know	36	48	48
Refused	0	1	1
* indicates less than .5% but more than 0

General election for governor

For the first time in the 2022 election cycle, this poll asked about possible November general election pairings for governor, matching incumbent Gov. Tony Evers against each of the top four Republican primary candidates. These results are shown in Table 3 (a) through Table 3 (d). Evers is supported by 47% to Kleefisch’s 43%, and Evers gets 48% to Michels’ 41%. Against Nicholson, Evers receives 48% to 40%. Evers holds a 51% to 34% margin over Ramthun. Here, and in subsequent tables, candidates are listed in alphabetical order.

Table 3: November general election for governor

(a) Evers vs. Kleefisch

Poll dates	Evers	Kleefisch	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know	Refused
6/14-20/22	47	43	1	2	7	1

(b) Evers vs. Michels

Poll dates	Evers	Michels	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know	Refused
6/14-20/22	48	41	2	1	8	1

(c) Evers vs. Nicholson

Poll dates	Evers	Nicholson	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know	Refused
6/14-20/22	48	40	1	1	8	1

(d) Evers vs. Ramthun

Poll dates	Evers	Ramthun	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know	Refused
6/14-20/22	51	34	2	1	11	1

General election for U.S. Senate

The November race for U.S. Senate will match incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson against the winner of the August Democratic primary. This poll paired each of the top four primary candidates against Johnson. This is the first such matchup in the Marquette Law School Poll this cycle. These results are shown in Table 4 (a) through Table 4 (b). Johnson slightly trails three of the four Democrat candidates polled, including 46%-44% against Barnes, 45%-43% against Godlewski, and 44%-43% against Nelson. Previewing a possible matchup with Lasry, Johnson slightly leads in support, 45%-42%.

Table 4: November general election for U.S. Senate

(a) Johnson vs. Barnes

Poll dates	Johnson	Barnes	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know	Refused
6/14-20/22	44	46	1	1	7	1

(b) Johnson vs. Godlewski

Poll dates	Johnson	Godlewski	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know	Refused
6/14-20/22	43	45	2	1	9	1

(c) Johnson vs. Lasry

Poll dates	Johnson	Lasry	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know	Refused
6/14-20/22	45	42	2	1	10	1

(d) Johnson vs. Nelson

Poll dates	Johnson	Nelson	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know	Refused
6/14-20/22	43	44	2	1	10	1

Favorability of the primary candidates

Table 5 shows the favorability ratings of the top four Republican candidates for governor and the percentage with no opinion (i.e., those saying they haven’t heard enough or don’t know how they feel about the candidate). Michels and Kleefisch have essentially equally positive net favorable ratings from GOP primary voters, with Nicholson about half as net favorable. Ramthun has a net negative favorability rating. Among these candidates, 46% or more of Republican voters say they don’t have an opinion of each, less than two months before the primary on Aug. 9.

Table 5: Favorability of Republican primary candidates, among Republican primary voters

Candidate	Net	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable	No opinion
Kleefisch	34	44	10	46
Michels	35	42	7	51
Nicholson	19	27	8	65
Ramthun	-3	7	10	84

Favorability of the Democratic primary candidates for governor among Democratic primary voters is shown in Table 6. Barnes has the highest net favorability, followed by Lasry, Godlewski, and Nelson. In each instance, over 50% of Democratic primary voters say they don’t have an opinion of the candidates

Table 6: Favorability to Democratic primary candidates, among Democratic primary voters

Candidate	Net	Favorable	Unfavorable	No opinion
Barnes	38	41	3	56
Godlewski	17	24	7	69
Lasry	22	31	9	60
Nelson	4	12	8	79

Partisanship and vote choice in the November general elections

The tables below — 7(a) through 7 (d) — show the votes for governor overall and by party identification. Vote choice is strongly structured by partisanship in these matchups, with 90% or more of Democrats supporting Evers and between 70% and 83% of Republicans supporting the GOP candidate. Independents favor Evers in each of these pairings, although a substantial percentage of independents say they don’t know how they will vote. In these currently hypothetical matchups, Republicans are a bit more likely not to express a vote choice than are Democrats.

Table 7: November general election for governor

(a) Evers vs. Kleefisch

Group	Evers	Kleefisch	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
Total	47	43	1	2	7
Republican	7	80	2	2	9
Independent	39	30	6	8	15
Democrat	90	7	0	0	3

(b) Evers vs. Michels

Group	Evers	Michels	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
Total	48	41	2	1	8
Republican	7	83	1	1	8
Independent	36	18	9	5	28
Democrat	94	3	0	0	3

(c) Evers vs. Nicholson

Group	Evers	Nicholson	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
Total	48	40	1	1	8
Republican	9	80	1	0	9
Independent	30	23	6	11	28
Democrat	93	3	0	0	3

(d) Evers vs. Ramthun

Group	Evers	Ramthun	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
Total	51	34	2	1	11
Republican	13	70	2	1	13
Independent	43	12	8	4	30
Democrat	93	2	0	1	4

Turning to the U.S. Senate race, the next set of tables — 8 (a) through 8 (d) — shows the votes for U.S. Senate, overall and by party identification. In these pairings, Republicans give Johnson 83% to 87% support, while Democrats back their party’s candidates at 86% to 91% rates. Independents vary in support, preferring Barnes by 1 percentage point and Johnson by from 2 to 8 percentage points in the other pairings. As in the race for governor, many more independents are undecided in their vote for U.S. Senate than are Republicans or Democrats.

Table 8: November general election for U.S. Senate

(a) Johnson vs. Barnes

Group	Johnson	Barnes	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
Total	44	46	1	1	7
Republican	86	6	0	0	7
Independent	28	29	11	5	24
Democrat	5	91	0	0	4

(b) Johnson vs. Godlewski

Group	Johnson	Godlewski	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
Total	43	45	2	1	9
Republican	83	7	0	0	8
Independent	30	23	14	4	26
Democrat	5	89	0	0	5

(c) Johnson vs. Lasry

Group	Johnson	Lasry	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
Total	45	42	2	1	10
Republican	87	4	1	0	8
Independent	30	22	12	5	28
Democrat	6	86	1	0	6

(d) Johnson vs. Nelson

Group	Johnson	Nelson	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
Total	43	44	2	1	10
Republican	85	6	1	0	8
Independent	24	22	11	7	34
Democrat	5	89	1	0	5

Enthusiasm to vote

The poll finds that in June there is a significant difference by party in enthusiasm to vote, with 67% of Republicans saying they are very enthusiastic and 58% of Democrats saying the same. Independents are considerably less enthusiastic, with 35% very enthusiastic. In past surveys, enthusiasm was closely linked to being a “likely voter,” as shown also in Table 9.

Table 9: Likely voters (i.e., those saying they are certain to vote), by enthusiasm, 2014-2020

Enthusiastic	Likely Voter	Not Likely
Very	93	7
Somewhat	64	36
Not too	43	55
Not at all	39	60

Enthusiasm has varied by party, with modest Republican advantages in October 2021 and February 2022, but no difference by party in April 2022. Table 10 shows the trend in enthusiasm over the last four Marquette Law School Poll surveys of Wisconsin.

Table 10: Enthusiasm to vote in November, by party identification, October 2021-June 2022

(a) June 2022

Party ID	Very	Somewhat	Not too	Not at all
Republican	67	20	7	6
Independent	35	35	8	20
Democrat	58	26	9	5

(b) April 2022

Party ID	Very	Somewhat	Not too	Not at all
Republican	57	24	9	9
Independent	35	32	15	14
Democrat	57	27	6	8

(c) February 2022

Party ID	Very	Somewhat	Not too	Not at all
Republican	58	22	11	7
Independent	43	30	10	14
Democrat	56	25	12	5

(d) October 2021

Party ID	Very	Somewhat	Not too	Not at all
Republican	63	21	9	6
Independent	43	22	10	23
Democrat	59	25	9	5

This enthusiasm gap is large enough to shift the vote margins significantly in hypothetical November general elections. Table 11 shows the effect of enthusiasm on the margins in the race for governor. By definition, the results for all registered voters reflect a very high turnout, those for both “very” and “somewhat” enthusiastic voters reflect an intermediate turnout, and the results for only those who are “very enthusiastic” reflect a lower turnout.

Table 11: Vote for governor, by potential turnout in November

(a) Evers vs. Kleefisch

Group	Evers	Kleefisch	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
High Turnout	47	43	1	2	7
Intermediate Turnout	47	44	1	1	5
Low Turnout	45	47	1	1	5

(b) Evers vs. Michels

Group	Evers	Michels	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
High Turnout	48	41	2	1	8
Intermediate Turnout	48	43	1	1	6
Low Turnout	46	47	1	1	5

(c) Evers vs. Nicholson

Group	Evers	Nicholson	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
High Turnout	48	40	1	1	8
Intermediate Turnout	47	43	1	0	7
Low Turnout	45	46	0	1	6

(d) Evers vs. Ramthun

Group	Evers	Ramthun	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
High Turnout	51	34	2	1	11
Intermediate Turnout	51	36	1	1	10
Low Turnout	48	40	1	1	9

Table 12 shows the effect of potential turnout on the margins in the race for U.S. Senate.

Table 12: Vote for U.S. Senate, by potential turnout in November

(a) Johnson vs. Barnes

Group	Johnson	Barnes	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
High Turnout	44	46	1	1	7
Intermediate Turnout	46	47	1	0	6
Low Turnout	48	45	1	0	4

(b) Johnson vs. Godlewski

Group	Johnson	Godlewski	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
High Turnout	43	45	2	1	9
Intermediate Turnout	44	46	1	0	7
Low Turnout	47	44	1	1	6

(c) Johnson vs. Lasry

Group	Johnson	Lasry	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
High Turnout	45	42	2	1	10
Intermediate Turnout	45	44	1	0	8
Low Turnout	48	43	1	0	7

(d) Johnson vs. Nelson

Group	Johnson	Nelson	Someone else	Would not vote	Don’t know
High Turnout	43	44	2	1	10
Intermediate Turnout	44	45	1	1	8
Low Turnout	47	44	1	1	6

Enthusiasm is strongly related to age, making for an older electorate in November if the current enthusiasm gap by age remains unchanged. Table 13 shows enthusiasm to vote by age in the June survey.

Table 13: Enthusiasm to vote, by age, June 2022

Age	Very	Somewhat	Not too	Not at all
18-29	27	35	22	17
30-39	43	35	8	14
40-49	58	29	6	7
50-59	70	16	8	4
60-69	79	14	4	1
70+	70	22	4	3

Direction of the state, job approval, and favorability

The percentage saying Wisconsin is headed in the right direction barely changed from April to June. In the new poll, 37% say the state is heading in the right direction and 56% say it is off on the wrong track. In April, 36% said the state was going in the right direction and 56% said it was on the wrong track. The trend in right direction or wrong track is shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Wisconsin headed in right direction or wrong track, 2019-22

Poll dates	Right direction	Wrong track	Don’t know	Refused
1/16-20/19	57	33	10	0
4/3-7/19	52	40	8	0
8/25-29/19	55	37	8	0
10/13-17/19	53	39	7	1
1/8-12/20	46	47	6	1
2/19-23/20	52	39	8	0
3/24-29/20	61	30	9	1
8/3-8/21	39	52	9	0
10/26-31/21	41	51	7	1
2/22-27/22	39	53	8	1
4/19-24/22	36	56	7	0
6/14-20/22	37	56	6	0

Approval of Evers’ handling of his job as governor stands at 48% in June, with disapproval at 45%, little changed from the result of 49% approval to 43% disapproval in April. The full trend for Evers’ approval is shown in Table 15.

Table 15: Evers job approval, 2019-22

Dates	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused	Dates	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused
1/16-20/19	39	22	38	1	6/14-18/20	54	38	6	1
4/3-7/19	47	37	15	0	8/4-9/20	57	37	6	0
8/25-29/19	54	34	10	1	8/30-9/3/20	51	43	5	2
10/13-17/19	52	34	13	1	9/30-10/4/20	52	42	5	1
11/13-17/19	47	42	10	1	10/21-25/20	50	43	7	0
12/3-8/19	50	38	11	1	8/3-8/21	50	43	7	0
1/8-12/20	51	40	9	0	10/26-31/21	45	46	8	1
2/19-23/20	51	38	10	1	2/22-27/22	50	41	8	1
3/24-29/20	65	29	6	1	4/19-24/22	49	43	7	1
5/3-7/20	59	33	7	1	6/14-20/22	48	45	6	1

In this June poll, President Joe Biden’s approval falls to 40%, with 57% disapproval, his lowest approval rating in the Marquette Law School Poll since taking office. In April 2022, 43% approved and 53% disapproved of Biden’s job performance. Biden’s approval among Wisconsin voters in Marquette Law School Poll surveys during his presidency is shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Biden job approval, 2021-22

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused
8/3-8/21	49	46	4	0
10/26-31/21	43	53	4	1
2/22-27/22	43	52	3	2
4/19-24/22	43	53	3	1
6/14-20/22	40	57	3	0

Sen. Johnson’s favorability rating changed little in June, with 37% viewing him favorably, 46% viewing him unfavorably, and 16% saying they haven’t heard enough about him or don’t know how they felt. In April, 36% were favorable, 46% were unfavorable, and 18% lacked an opinion of Johnson. The trend in Johnson’s favorability since 2013 is shown in Table 17.

Table 17: Johnson favorability, 2013-22

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
3/11-13/13	30	25	40	4	0
5/6-9/13	33	25	37	4	0
10/21-24/13	29	33	35	3	0
1/20-23/14	31	25	38	5	0
3/20-23/14	29	27	40	4	0
7/17-20/14	29	29	40	2	0
8/21-24/14	39	25	31	4	1
10/23-26/14	33	30	31	5	1
4/7-10/15	32	29	34	5	0
8/13-16/15	30	31	35	3	0
9/24-28/15	27	36	33	4	0
11/12-15/15	27	38	33	2	0
1/21-24/16	26	33	37	4	1
2/18-21/16	29	33	35	3	0
3/24-28/16	32	31	34	2	0
6/9-12/16	33	31	33	2	0
7/7-10/16	34	35	30	2	0
8/4-7/16	34	32	31	2	0
8/25-28/16	33	34	30	2	1
9/15-18/16	34	36	28	2	0
10/6-9/16	41	33	23	2	0
Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
10/26-31/16	41	38	17	4	0
3/13-16/17	39	34	23	3	1
6/22-25/17	39	32	26	3	0
2/25-3/1/18	40	30	25	4	0
6/13-17/18	39	34	21	5	0
7/11-15/18	40	36	16	7	1
8/15-19/18	40	30	25	4	1
9/12-16/18	38	32	24	6	0
10/3-7/18	41	32	21	5	1
10/24-28/18	39	30	24	6	1
1/16-20/19	44	28	23	5	0
4/3-7/19	40	32	24	5	0
8/25-29/19	40	29	25	6	0
10/13-17/19	40	29	24	6	0
11/13-17/19	39	29	24	7	0
12/3-8/19	36	34	26	4	1
1/8-12/20	39	29	28	3	0
2/19-23/20	37	34	24	5	1
3/24-29/20	35	32	29	4	0
5/3-7/20	38	34	23	5	1
6/14-18/20	35	32	29	3	0
8/4-9/20	33	35	27	4	0
8/30-9/3/20	32	36	28	5	0
9/30-10/4/20	35	31	27	7	0
10/21-25/20	38	36	23	3	1
8/3-8/21	35	42	20	3	0
10/26-31/21	36	42	18	4	0
2/22-27/22	33	45	17	4	1
4/19-24/22	36	46	14	4	0
6/14-20/22	37	46	14	2	0

Concern about issues

Inflation remained the issue voters say they are most concerned about, with 75% saying they are very concerned. In April, 69% were very concerned about inflation.

Fifty-eight percent say they are very concerned about abortion policy, while 56% are very concerned about gun violence. Concern about healthcare is rated somewhat lower, with 47% very concerned, while concern about coronavirus has fallen to its low point of the year, with 18% very concerned. The full set of responses is shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Issue concerns, June 2022

Issue	Very concerned	Somewhat concerned	Not too concerned	Not at all concerned
Inflation	75	20	4	1
Abortion policy	58	24	8	9
Gun violence	56	26	8	9
Healthcare	47	36	12	5
Coronavirus	18	27	23	31

There has been little change among preferences in abortion policy in recent years, with 27% in this survey saying abortion should be legal in all cases and 31% saying it should be legal in most cases. Meanwhile, 11% say it should be illegal in all cases and 24% say it should be illegal in most cases. That represents a small increase in the percent favoring the legality of abortion in all cases and a similar decline in the percent say abortion should be legal in most cases, while the other categories changed little. The full trend on this question is shown in Table 19.

Table 19: Abortion policy preference, 2012-2022

Poll dates	Legal in all cases	Legal in most cases	Illegal in most cases	Illegal in all cases	Don’t know	Refused
9/13-16/12	26	34	23	13	3	1
9/27-30/12	25	35	23	12	3	1
10/11-14/12	25	34	25	12	3	1
10/25-28/12	28	32	23	12	4	1
10/21-24/13	26	36	25	10	2	1
10/23-26/14	24	34	24	15	3	1
7/11-15/18	27	36	18	11	6	2
9/12-16/18	26	36	21	9	6	2
10/24-28/18	26	29	24	14	4	2
2/19-23/20	18	37	22	15	6	3
10/26-31/21	23	38	23	11	4	1
6/14-20/22	27	31	24	11	5	2

Gun policy

Eighty-one percent support “red-flag laws,” which allow police to take guns away from people found by a judge to be a danger to themselves or others, while 13% oppose such laws. Support is unchanged since August 2019, when this question was last asked and 12% were opposed.

Mandatory background checks on people making gun purchases at gun shows or through private sales are supported by 79%, with 16% opposed. In August 2019, 80% supported such background checks and 16% were opposed.

A smaller majority, 56%, support raising the minimum age for gun purchases to 21, while 38% would keep the minimum age at 18. This is the first time this question has been asked in the Marquette Law School Poll.

Transgender issues

A little less than half of the respondents, 44%, say they know someone who identifies as transgender, while 55% do not. This percentage varies strongly by age, as shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Know someone who is transgender, by age

Age	Yes, know someone	No, do not know anyone	Don’t know
18-29	64	36	0
30-44	56	44	0
45-59	41	57	1
60+	31	67	3

Forty-six percent say they favor laws that ban discrimination based on whether a person is transgender, while 39% oppose such laws and 13% say they don’t know.

Participation on sports teams that match an athlete’s current gender identity is supported by 22% of respondents, while 62% say athletes should only be allowed to compete on teams that match their birth gender and 14% don’t know.

Water safety issues

Asked about their level of concern over the safety of the water supply in their community,  20% say they are very concerned, 23% somewhat concerned, 27% not too concerned, and 30% not at all concerned. Concern was higher among residents of the City of Milwaukee, where 33% are very concerned, compared to 18% in all other regions of the state.

Concern about water contamination from the long-lasting chemical PFAS was somewhat higher than concern over the water supply in general. Thirty-one percent are very concerned about PFAS contamination, and 30% are somewhat concerned, while 16% are not too concerned and 18% are not at all concerned over PFAS.

A majority of respondents, 66%, see water quality issues as a statewide concern, while 24% see it as an issue in only isolated parts of the state.

Confidence in the accuracy the 2020 presidential election result

There has been little change in confidence in the accuracy of the 2020 presidential election result in recent months, with 67% saying they are very or somewhat confident that votes were accurately cast and counted in Wisconsin and 32% not too confident or not at all confident. The full trend since August 2021 is shown in Table 21.

Table 21: Confidence in the accuracy of the 2020 presidential election in Wisconsin, August 2021-June 2022

Poll dates	Very confident	Somewhat confident	Not too confident	Not at all confident	Don’t know
8/3-8/21	48	19	15	16	1
10/26-31/21	47	18	12	19	3
2/22-27/22	48	19	11	19	2
4/19-24/22	48	16	12	23	1
6/14-20/22	51	16	11	21	0

A majority of Republicans doubt the results, while a majority of independents and Democrats have confidence in the election results. Confidence by party is shown in Table 22. There is some difference in confidence between Republicans and independents who lean to the Republican party.

Table 22: Confidence in the 2020 election by party identification

Party ID	Very confident	Somewhat confident	Not too confident	Not at all confident	Don’t know
Republican	13	21	21	44	0
Lean Republican	19	26	25	28	1
Independent	51	19	3	26	1
Lean Democrat	83	13	1	4	0
Democrat	90	5	3	1	0

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 803 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone from June 14-20, 2022. The margin of error is +/-4.3 percentage points for the full sample. The margin of error for 369 Democratic primary voters is 6.2 percentage points and for 372 Republican primary voters is 6.3 percentage points.

Some issue items were asked of half the sample. Those on Form A were asked of 401 and have a margin of error of +/-6.2 percentage points. Form B items were asked of 402 and have a margin of error of +/-5.9 percentage points.

Items asked of half-samples include on Form A whether Wisconsin is headed in the right direction or off on the wrong track, concern for inflation, abortion policy, the coronavirus pandemic, gun violence, and healthcare. Form B items included background checks for gun purchases, minimum age to purchase a gun, and red flag laws. Form B also included knowing someone who is transgender, favor or oppose a ban on discrimination against transgender people, and whether transgender athletes should be allowed to compete on teams that match their current gender identity.

The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 45% Republican, 44% Democratic, and 10% independent. The partisan makeup of the sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 30% Republican, 29% Democratic, and 41% independent.

Since January 2020, the long-term partisan balance, including those who lean to a party, in the Marquette Law School Poll has been 45% Republican and 44% Democratic, with 9% independent. Partisanship exuding those who lean has been 29% Republican and 28% Democratic, with 41% independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.