Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds Biden and Trump tied among registered voters, Trump up 1% among likely voters

Haley continues to hold large lead over Biden in hypothetical matchup but wins just 22% in Republican primary polling

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds the presumptive presidential race tied, with President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump each supported by 49% of registered voters. Among the somewhat smaller group who are considered likely voters, Trump is at 50% and Biden at 49%.

In November, Biden received 50% and Trump 48% among both registered and likely voters.

These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked to choose one of the candidates. Among registered voters, 12% were initially undecided, as were 10% among likely voters.

When third-party candidates are included, Trump receives 40% and Biden 37% among registered voters. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives 16%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein is the choice of 4%, and independent candidate Cornel West receives 2%.

Among likely voters in the five-way race, Trump is the choice of 41%, Biden 39%, Kennedy 13%, Stein 4%, and West 2%.

The survey was conducted Jan. 24-31, 2024, interviewing 930 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.2 percentage points. The sample includes 408 Republicans and independents who lean Republican, who were asked about their preferences in the Republican presidential primary, with a margin of error of +/-6.4 percentage points.

In a head-to-head match between Biden and Republican candidate Nikki Haley, Haley continues to hold sizable advantage as the choice of 57% registered voters, compared to 41% who chose Biden. Among likely voters, Haley receives 57% and Biden 42%. In November, 53% of registered voters favored Haley compared to 44% who chose Biden.

Table 1 shows the Biden vs. Trump results by party identification. Biden and Trump receive nearly equal support from their respective parties, while independents lean to Biden. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages.)

Table 1: Vote for Biden or Trump

Among registered voters

Party IDVote choice
Donald TrumpJoe BidenHaven’t decided
Total49492
Republican90100
Independent42498
Democrat9910
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?

Haley runs especially well against Biden, as shown in Table 2, winning a larger share of Republicans than Trump and taking a majority of the vote from independents. She also wins 15% from Democratic voters, larger than does Trump.

Table 2: Vote for Biden or Haley

Among registered voters

Party IDVote choice
Nikki HaleyJoe BidenHaven’t decided
Total57411
Republican9631
Independent58363
Democrat15850
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Nikki Haley or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Haley?

In the five-way ballot test, Kennedy takes more votes from Republicans, 16%, than from Democrats, 12%, and an especially large share from independents, 28%. Stein takes 8% of the vote from Democrats but only 1% from Republicans, while West does better among independents than among partisans. These results are shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Five-way ballot, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDVote choice
BidenTrumpKennedyWestSteinDon’t know
Total374016241
Republican57616110
Independent332728432
Democrat73512281
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Joe Biden, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, independent Cornel West, or Green Party’s Jill Stein?

As the primaries have begun, most respondents expect Trump and Biden to be the nominees of their respective parties, but some don’t think so, especially those of the opposite party. Table 4 shows expectation that Biden will be the Democratic nominee. Among all respondents, 40% say Biden will definitely be the nominee and 40% say he probably will be. However, 9% say he probably won’t be and 5% say he definitely won’t be the Democratic nominee. Republicans are especially doubtful, with more than 1 in 5 saying he probably or definitely won’t be the nominee and another 9% saying they don’t know.

Table 4: Will Biden be the nominee, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDBiden the nominee
Definitely will be the nomineeProbably will be the nomineeProbably will not be the nomineeDefinitely will not be the nomineeDon’t know
Total4040956
Republican254511109
Independent3742677
Democrat5834702
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: How likely is it that Joe Biden will be the presidential nominee of the Democratic Party in the November election?

Trump is seen as definitely the Republican nominee by 34% and probably the nominee by 51%, while 6% say he probably won’t be and 2% think he definitely won’t be the nominee. Democrats are more skeptical Trump will win the nomination and Republicans less doubtful, as shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Will Trump be the nominee, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDTrump the nominee
Definitely will be the nomineeProbably will be the nomineeProbably will not be the nomineeDefinitely will not be the nomineeDon’t know
Total3451625
Republican5044214
Independent2957427
Democrat20581246
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: How likely is it that Donald Trump will be the presidential nominee of the Republican Party in the November election?

Respondents were also asked, regardless of whom they plan to support, who they think would win in the presidential election in November in a hypothetical Biden-Trump rematch from 2020. Trump is seen as more likely to win, with 23% saying he would definitely win and 25% saying he probably would win. Biden is seen as definitely winning by 14% and probably winning by 27%, while 12% say they don’t know who will win.

Majorities of each party think their party’s candidate is likely to win. Independents slightly lean to think of Trump winning, although over a quarter say they don’t know, as shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Who is likely to win, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDWho is likely to win
Definitely BidenProbably BidenProbably TrumpDefinitely TrumpDon’t know
Total1427252312
Republican21630457
Independent1718231626
Democrat264120212
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Regardless of how you plan to vote, who do you think will win the presidential election if Joe Biden is the Democratic candidate and Donald Trump is the Republican candidate?

GOP primary

In the Republican primary, Trump is supported by 64% and Haley is the choice of 22%, with 14% saying they are undecided. In the Marquette Law School Poll in November, Trump was the choice of 38% and Haley the choice of 11%, with 24% undecided and other candidates taking the remainder.

The favorability ratings for Trump, Haley, and Florida Gov, Ron DeSantis, who dropped out +of the race very shortly before the survey began, are shown in Table 7, among Republican registered voters. Trump’s net favorable rating has increased, while Haley’s has decreased since November. DeSantis’ net favorable rating also went down from the fall. Trump is now seen favorably by 77% of Republicans, up from 69% in November. Haley’s favorable rating has not changed much, but her unfavorable rating rose to 31%, up from 18%, while those saying they haven’t heard enough about her declined to 17% from 27% in November.

Table 7: Favorability to Trump, Haley and DeSantis

Among Republican registered voters

CandidateFavorability
Poll datesNet favorableFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enoughDon’t know
Donald Trump1/24-31/2456772120
Donald Trump10/26-11/2/2341692830
Nikki Haley1/24-31/24215231170
Nikki Haley10/26-11/2/23365418272
Ron DeSantis1/24-31/24476720130
Ron DeSantis10/26-11/2/23587315111
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Haley’s support in the primary largely comes from the 21% of Republicans with an unfavorable view of Trump, as shown in Table 8. Haley does nearly as well with those unfavorable to Trump as Trump does among those favorable to him. However, there are too few Republicans unfavorable to Trump to provide a large enough GOP base for Haley to match Trump in the primary polling.

Table 8: Primary vote, by favorability to Trump

Among Republican registered voters

Trump favorabilityPrimary choice 2024
Nikki HaleyDonald TrumpHaven’t decided
Favorable78013
Unfavorable77518
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: If the Republican primary were today, whom would you vote for or haven’t you decided?
Question: Next, we’d like to get your opinion of some people you may or may not be familiar with. For each name, please indicate if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them or if you haven’t heard enough about them yet to have an opinion. Donald Trump

Enthusiasm and likelihood of voting

Registered voters are less enthusiastic about voting than they were in January 2020, as shown in Table 9. In the current survey, 49% say they are very enthusiastic about voting in November, compared to 70% at the comparable time four years ago.

Table 9: Enthusiasm to vote in November election

Among registered voters

Poll datesEnthusiasm
VerySomewhatNot tooNot at allDon’t know
1/24-31/2449251790
10/26-11/2/2346281961
1/8-12/207022531
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: (2024) How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?
Question: (2020) How enthusiastic are you about voting in this November’s elections? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

Those who are most enthusiastic substantially prefer Trump to Biden, while those less enthusiastic prefer Biden to Trump, as shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Vote for Biden or Trump, by enthusiasm

Among registered voters

EnthusiasmVote choice 2024
Donald TrumpJoe BidenHaven’t decided
Very enthusiastic59401
Somewhat enthusiastic41573
Not too enthusiastic37603
Not at all enthusiastic42570
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

Enthusiasm is related to likelihood of voting, but these are measured separately. Those who are classified as likely voters slightly prefer Trump, while those who are less likely to vote prefer Biden, as shown in Table 11. How, or if, enthusiasm and likelihood of voting (the latter ultimately becoming turnout) change over the campaign may shift the candidates’ advantages.

Table 11: Vote for Biden or Trump, by likelihood of voting

Among registered voters

Likelihood of votingVote choice 2024
Donald TrumpJoe BidenHaven’t decided
Likely voter50491
Less likely to vote46513
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?

Favorability among all registered voters

Table 12 shows the trend in favorability to presidential candidates among all registered voters. All the candidates are viewed more unfavorably than favorably with the exception of Kennedy, who has a net favorability of +2 percentage points. Haley and the independent or third-party candidates are much less well known than Biden or Trump.

Table 12: Favorability to presidential candidates

Among registered voters

CandidateFavorability
Poll datesNet favorableFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
Joe Biden1/24-31/24-1741581
Joe Biden10/26-11/2/23-1442562
Donald Trump1/24-31/24-1840581
Donald Trump10/26-11/2/23-2437612
Nikki Haley1/24-31/24-6364222
Nikki Haley10/26-11/2/23-3313433
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.1/24-31/242353332
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.10/26-11/2/23-8313930
Cornel West1/24-31/24-1271973
Cornel West10/26-11/2/23-1462069
Jill Stein1/24-31/24-14102466
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Both Biden and Trump are seen more unfavorably than favorably. A significant share of voters, 18%, see both of them unfavorably. Their combined favorability trend is shown in Table 13.

Table 13: Combined favorability to Biden and Trump

Among registered voters

    WaveCombined Favorability
Biden fav, Trump favBiden fav, Trump unfavBiden unfav, Trump favBiden unfav, Trump unfavDK Biden or Trump
1/24-31/2424038182
10/26-11/2/2314136184
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Biden job approval

Biden’s job approval in January stands at 41%, with disapproval at 58%, a one-point decline in approval since November. Table 14 shows the trend in job approval.

Table 14: Biden job approval

Among registered voters

Poll datesJob approval
Total approveTotal disapproveStrongly approveSomewhat approveSomewhat disapproveStrongly disapprove
1/24-31/24415818231048
10/26-11/2/23425717251244
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Vote choice generally is strongly related to approval. But Biden wins a majority of voters among those who somewhat disapprove of the job he is doing, as shown in Table 15.

Table 15: Biden vs. Trump, by Biden job approval

Among registered voters

Biden job approvalVote choice
Donald TrumpJoe BidenHaven’t decided
Total49492
Strongly approve5941
Somewhat approve5950
Somewhat disapprove44506
Strongly disapprove8991
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Perceptions of Biden and Trump

Table 16 shows which candidate is thought to do a better job on seven issues. Trump is seen as better on immigration and border security, the economy, and, to a smaller degree, the Israel-Hamas war. The two are virtually tied on foreign relations. Biden is seen as slightly better on health care and on Medicare and Social Security, with a larger advantage on abortion policy.

On each different issue, a substantial percentage, 15%-24%, say both candidates would be about the same or that neither would be good. These voters could change their minds over the course of the campaign, providing an opportunity for the candidates.

Table 16: Which candidate would do a better job on issues

Among registered voters

IssueWho better
BidenTrumpBoth about the sameNeither good
Immigration and border security2854611
The Economy3152710
Israel-Hamas war3144816
Foreign relations4243510
Health care40361212
Medicare and Social Security42371110
Abortion policy4436711
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Do you think Joe Biden or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues, they are both about the same or would neither be good on the issue?

Table 17 shows how well various phrases describe Biden and Trump. Biden is seen as too old to be president by 61%, compared to 29% who see Trump as too old.

On “shares your values,” slightly more say this describes Trump very well than say that of Biden, but more are emphatic that this does not describe Trump for them than say the same of Biden.

Corruption allegations have been leveled against both candidates. In this poll, 49% say “has behaved corruptly” describes Trump very well, with 30% saying this describes Biden very well.

On their records as president, Trump has an advantage, with 35% saying “strong record of accomplishments” describes him very well, while 19% say this describes Biden very well.

Table 17: How well does this phrase describe Biden or Trump

Among registered voters

IssueHow well phrase describes
Very wellSomewhat wellNot too wellNot at all well
Is too old to be president
Biden612289
Trump29272123
Shares your values
Biden18281340
Trump22201147
Has behaved corruptly
Biden30191535
Trump49181220
Strong record of accomplishments as president
Biden19241937
Trump35171830
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Joe Biden)(Donald Trump)?

With respect to Trump’s indictment for his actions following the 2020 election, 53% believe Trump did something illegal, 22% say he did something wrong but not illegal, 22% say he did nothing wrong, and 3% say they don’t know.

Asked if Joe Biden did something illegal related to his son’s business dealings, 42% believe he did something illegal, 17% say he did something wrong but not illegal, 29% say he did nothing wrong, and 13% say they don’t know.

Direction of the country, economic conditions, and personal financial situation

A majority (57%) of registered voters say that Wisconsin generally is on the wrong track, while 42% say it is headed in the right direction. In November, 62% said the state was on the wrong track and 36% said it was headed in the right direction. The trend for this opinion is shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Right direction or wrong track

Among registered voters

Poll datesDirection of state
Right directionWrong trackDon’t know
1/24-31/2442570
10/26-11/2/2336622
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?

A majority of Democrats see the state headed in the right direction, while a majority of Republicans and independents say the state is on the wrong track, as shown in Table 19.

Table 19: Right direction or wrong track, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDDirection of the state
Right directionWrong track
Total4257
Republican2377
Independent4456
Democrat6236
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?

The national economy is seen as excellent by only 6%, as good by 32%, as not so good by 34%, and as poor by 28%. Views of the economy improved from November to January, as shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Views of the national economy

Among registered voters

Poll datesNational economy
ExcellentGoodNot so goodPoor
1/24-31/246323428
10/26-11/2/233243637
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?

These views of the economy differ sharply by party identification, as shown in Table 21, with Republicans quite negative and Democrats quite positive. Independents are more negative than positive, though less negative than Republicans.

Table 21: Views of the national economy, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDDescription of national economy
ExcellentGoodNot so goodPoor
Total6323428
Republican2144044
Independent7313725
Democrat11512611
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?

Respondents see the Wisconsin economy as better than the national economy. The comparison is shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Wisconsin economy vs. national economy

Among registered voters

State or nationalView of economy
ExcellentGoodNot so goodPoor
Wisconsin economy6423814
National economy6323428
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the Wisconsin economy these days?
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?

Partisan differences are also strong in views of Wisconsin’s economy, although views of the state are more positive than for the nation across each partisan category, as shown in Table 23.

Table 23: Views of the Wisconsin economy, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDDescription of Wisconsin economy
ExcellentGoodNot so goodPoor
Total6423814
Republican3284821
Independent3414313
Democrat958267
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the Wisconsin economy these days?

Respondents’ family financial situation is little changed since November. Among registered voters, 49% say they are living comfortably, 38% say they are just getting by, and 13% say they are struggling. This trend is shown in Table 24.

Table 24: Family financial situation

Among registered voters

Poll datesFinancial situation
Living comfortablyJust getting byStruggling
1/24-31/24493813
10/26-11/2/23483615
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet?

Partisan differences in personal financial situation are shown in Table 25. Republicans are less likely to say they are living comfortably than either independents or Democrats.

Table 25: Family financial situation, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDFamily financial situation
Living comfortablyJust getting byStruggling
Total493813
Republican424217
Independent493813
Democrat563310
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet?

Approval of governor, legislature and state Supreme Court

Table 26 shows the job approval ratings for Gov. Tony Evers, the Wisconsin legislature, and the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Evers’ approval is 51% and disapproval is 44%. In November, Evers’ approval was 53% and disapproval was 46%.

Table 26: Approval of governor, the legislature, and state Supreme Court

Among registered voters

  Approval ofApproval
Poll datesApproveDisapproveDon’t know
Tony Evers1/24-31/2451445
Tony Evers10/26-11/2/2353462
The Wisconsin legislature1/24-31/2434588
The Wisconsin legislature10/26-11/2/2340573
The Wisconsin state Supreme Court1/24-31/24454313
The Wisconsin state Supreme Court10/26-11/2/2351435
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Wisconsin legislature is handling its job?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Wisconsin state Supreme Court is handling its job?

Favorability of state elected officials and potential U.S. Senate candidates

Favorability ratings of U.S. Sens. Tammy Baldwin and Ron Johnson, Evers, and Assembly Speaker Robin Vos are shown in Table 27. Vos is far less known statewide than are the others. Also included are three potential Republican candidates for U.S. Senate, though none had declared at the time of the survey. These potential candidates—Eric Hovde, Scott Mayer, and David Clarke—are little known at this point.

Table 27: Favorability of state political figures

Among registered voters

Favorability toFavorability
FavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enoughDon’t know
Tammy Baldwin4245130
Ron Johnson385290
Tony Evers524530
Robin Vos1739430
Eric Hovde79822
Scott Mayer47881
David Clarke1817650
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

State issues

In December the state Supreme Court ruled the existing legislative districts violated the state Constitution and required new maps to be drawn. This survey was conducted after new maps had been submitted, but before any ruling on which map will be adopted. The decision to draw new districts is favored by 42% of registered voters and opposed by 34%, while 23% say they don’t know.

Opinions of this decision are divided by party, as shown in Table 28. Yet a substantial portion of each party say they don’t have an opinion on this topic.

Table 28: Favor or oppose decision to redraw legislative districts

Among registered voters

Party IDFavor or oppose decision
Strongly favorSomewhat favorSomewhat opposeStrongly opposeDon’t know
Total2913161823
Republican415262925
Independent2612152225
Democrat57117420
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: In December the state Supreme Court ordered the redrawing of district maps for the state Assembly and Senate, replacing existing districts with new ones for the 2024 elections. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

In January, the legislature discussed legislation that would legalize the use of marijuana for medical purposes. Eighty-six percent say they support legalization for medical purposes, with 10% opposed and 4% saying they don’t know. When last asked about this in April 2019, 83% favored and 12% opposed legalizing medical marijuana.

A smaller majority, 63%, favor legalization of marijuana for any purpose, while 29% are opposed. This question was last asked in October 2022, with 64% in favor and 30% opposed.

Table 29 shows opinion of legalizing medical marijuana by party identification. Substantial majorities, including more than three-quarters of Republicans, favor legalization.

Table 29: Legalize medical marijuana, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDOpinion
Yes, legalNo, illegal
Total8610
Republican7817
Independent8411
Democrat952
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Do you think the use of marijuana for medical purposes with a doctor’s prescription should be made legal, or not?

Opinion is somewhat more divided by party on legalization of marijuana beyond medicinal uses. Republicans are split evenly on this issue, with majorities of independents and Democrats in favor, as shown in Table 30.

Table 30: Legalize marijuana, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDOpinion
Yes, legalNo, illegal
Total6329
Republican4646
Independent6227
Democrat8311
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Do you think the use of marijuana should be made legal, or not?

The legislature is considering a measure that could place a referendum on the ballot that would ban abortion after 14 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions for the life and health of the mother and in cases of rape or incest. Opinion is closely divided on this issue, with 45% in favor, 48% opposed, and 8% saying they don’t know.

The partisan divide on this issue is shown in Table 31.

Table 31: Ban abortion after 14 weeks, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDPreference
FavorOpposeDon’t know
Total45488
Republican72198
Independent43508
Democrat15777
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Would you favor or oppose a proposal to ban abortions in Wisconsin after 14 weeks of pregnancy, with exceptions for the life and health of the mother and for cases of rape or incest?

Confidence in the accuracy of the 2020 presidential election (the casting and counting of votes) remains a sharp dividing line in Wisconsin. Overall, 66% are very or somewhat confident in the accuracy of the election in Wisconsin, with 31% not too or not at all confident. However, among Republicans, these percentages are almost reversed, with 40% very or somewhat confident and 59% not too or not at all confident.

These percentages have hardly changed since August 2021 when the question was first asked. At that time, 67% were very or somewhat confident and 31% not too or not at all confident.

Confidence in the 2020 election by party identification is shown in Table 32. While a majority of Republicans lack confidence, majorities of independents and Democrats are very or somewhat confident in the election.

Table 32: Confidence in the 2020 election, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDConfidence in election
Very confidentSomewhat confidentNot too confidentNot at all confidentDon’t know
Total491715162
Republican192125341
Independent56181394
Democrat7913413
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: How confident are you that, here in Wisconsin, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election?

Aid to Ukraine and to Israel, and U.S. role in the world

Views of the role the United States should play in the world have been shifting in recent years. In Wisconsin, 57% think it is better for the country if the U.S. plays an active role in world affairs, while 30% say it would be better to stay out of world affairs. Table 33 shows how these views differ by party identification.

Table 33: Better for U.S. to play active role in world or to stay out of world affairs

Among registered voters

Party IDRole in world
Take an active part in world affairsStay out of world affairsDon’t know
Total573013
Republican523611
Independent513614
Democrat642115
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: Do you think it will be better for the future of the country if we take an active part in world affairs, or if we stay out of world affairs?

Thirty-one percent say the U.S. is providing too much support to Israel in its war with Hamas in Gaza, while 17% say the U.S. is not giving enough support for Israel and 36% say the U.S. is giving about the right amount of support to Israel. Table 34 shows how views of aid to Israel vary by party. Democrats are more likely to say the U.S. is giving too much support to Israel than are Republicans or independents.

Table 34: Amount of U.S. support to Israel, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDSupport to Israel
Too much supportNot enough supportAbout the right amount of supportDon’t know
Total31173616
Republican26263612
Independent27183915
Democrat3773620
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Israel, not enough support to Israel, or about the right amount of support to Israel?

Thirty-three percent say the U.S. is giving too much support to Ukraine, 25% say the country is not giving enough support, and 30% say the amount of support to Ukraine is about right. Party differences on aid to Ukraine are the reverse of those for aid to Israel, with Republicans most likely to say too much support is being given to Ukraine, while Democrats are least likely to say this, as shown in Table 35.

Table 35: Amount of U.S. support to Ukraine, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDSupport to Ukraine
Too much supportNot enough supportAbout the right amount of supportDon’t know
Total33253011
Republican54132210
Independent3530268
Democrat10374012
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Jan. 24-31, 2024
Question: When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine?

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This survey was conducted Jan. 24-31, 2024, interviewing 930 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.2 percentage points. The sample includes 408 Republicans and independents who lean Republican, who were asked about their preferences in the Republican presidential primary, with a margin of error of +/-6.4 percentage points.

The survey was conducted with a hybrid sample of 727 respondents selected from the Wisconsin voter registration list and 203 selected from the SSRS Opinion Panel, a sample drawn from postal addresses across the state and invited to take part in surveys online. The interview was conducted online with 814 respondents and with 116 by telephone with a live interviewer. Full details of the methodology are contained in the methodology statement at the link below.

The partisan makeup of the sample is 32% Republican, 30% Democratic, and 37% independent. Since January 2020, the long-term partisan balance has been 30% Republican, 28% Democratic, and 41% independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available on the Marquette Law School Poll website.

New Marquette Law School national survey finds Biden trailing three GOP opponents, Trump dominating GOP primary

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey of registered voters finds President Joe Biden trailing against each of the top three potential Republican candidates, with former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley leading Biden 55% to 45% among registered voters. Former President Trump leads Biden 52% to 48% in the same category, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis holds a 51% to 49% advantage.

Among likely voters, Haley sees her advantage rise to 12 percentage points at 56-44. The Biden-DeSantis hypothetical does not change with likely voters, while Trump’s support decreases to 51% against Biden’s 49%.

These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked to choose one of the candidates.

Among registered Republican voters, Trump maintains a substantial lead over all others in the primary field for the GOP nomination, with 54% of the total. DeSantis and Haley are tied at 12%. That represents a rise for Haley and a decline for DeSantis since March. No other candidate has more than 4% support in the current poll.

The survey was conducted Nov. 2-7, 2023, interviewing 856 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 668, with a margin of error of +/-5 percentage points.

The Marquette Law School Poll has seen a close race between Trump and Biden among registered voters since May, with the trend shown in Table 1. Among likely voters in September, Biden received 51% to Trump’s 49%. Likely voters results are not available for earlier polls. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: Presidential vote choice, Biden vs. Trump, May-November

Among registered voters

Poll datesVote
Donald TrumpJoe Biden
11/2-7/235248
9/18-25/235148
7/7-12/235050
5/8-18/235247
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden?
Question for those initially answering “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Trump or for Biden?

The trend among registered voters for the DeSantis-Biden choice is shown in Table 2. Among likely voters in September, Biden received 51% to DeSantis’s 48%. Likely voters results are not available for earlier polls.

Table 2: Presidential vote choice, Biden vs. DeSantis, May-September

Among registered voters

Poll datesVote
Ron DeSantisJoe Biden
11/2-7/235149
9/18-25/235148
7/7-12/235148
5/8-18/235248
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Ron DeSantis or for Joe Biden?
Question for those initially answering “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for DeSantis?

The Haley-Biden vote was first measured in the current poll, so no trend is available.

Table 3 shows the Biden versus Trump results by party identification. Trump receives a higher share of Republican votes than does Biden among Democrats, while independents favor Trump. (Throughout this report, party identification includes independents who say they are closer to a party while “independents” separately listed here are those who say they are not closer to either party.)

Table 3: Vote for Biden or Trump, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDVote choice
Donald TrumpJoe Biden
Total5248
Republican928
Independent5446
Democrat1189
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden?
Question for those initially answering “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question for those initially answering “Independent”: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party or neither?

In the Biden-DeSantis pairing, Republican support for DeSantis is a little higher than in Trump’s case, and Biden’s support among Democrats is also slightly higher than against Trump. Biden has a small lead among independents in this matchup, as shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Vote for Biden or DeSantis, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDVote choice
Ron DeSantisJoe Biden
Total5149
Republican964
Independent4753
Democrat892
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Ron DeSantis or for Joe Biden?
Question for those initially answering “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for DeSantis?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question for those initially answering “Independent”: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party or neither?

Haley holds Republican support as well as DeSantis does, while attracting a substantial crossover vote from Democrats. Independents are about evenly divided, as shown in Table 5. Haley’s strength with Republicans combined with an ability to attract more Democratic voters than Trump or DeSantis accounts for her stronger overall support against Biden.

Table 5: Vote for Biden or Haley, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDVote choice
Nikki HaleyJoe Biden
Total5545
Republican964
Independent4951
Democrat1585
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Nikki Haley or for Joe Biden?
Question for those initially answering “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Haley?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question for those initially answering “Independent”: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party or neither?

Reluctant voters

A significant share of voters are initially reluctant to choose between Biden or Trump, saying they would vote for “someone else” or wouldn’t vote. The share of these reluctant voters had remained around 20-25% since the question was first posed in November 2021. In September and November, the share of reluctant voters has dipped below 20%. It was 18% in November. The full trend is shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Reluctant to choose Biden or Trump, Nov. 2021-Nov. 2023

Among registered voters

Poll datesReluctant or not
ReluctantNot reluctant
11/2-7/231882
9/18-25/231684
7/7-12/232476
5/8-18/232575
3/13-22/232476
1/9-20/232080
11/15-22/222377
9/7-14/222278
3/14-24/221981
1/10-21/222278
11/1-10/212278
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden, someone else or wouldn’t you vote?

When asked to choose, almost all respondents will make a choice of Biden or Trump. In November, among initially reluctant registered voters, 53% said they would pick Trump and 47% would definitely vote for Biden.

The trend in choices among initially reluctant voters since May is shown in Table 7. Biden has had an edge with these reluctant voters in each poll prior to the current one.

Table 7: Choice among initially reluctant voters, May-Nov. 2023

Among registered voters who initially don’t pick Biden or Trump

Poll datesVote when asked to choose
Donald TrumpJoe Biden
11/2-7/235347
9/18-25/234255
7/7-12/234851
5/8-18/234751
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?

Favorability

Haley is the only one of the four leading candidates viewed more favorably than unfavorably, with a net favorability—favorable percentage minus unfavorable percentage—of +7.  Trump is at -15, Biden is at -19, and DeSantis is at -21, as shown in Table 8. However, many more voters say they haven’t heard enough about Haley to have an opinion than say that of the other candidates.

Table 8: Favorability to Biden, Trump, DeSantis, and Haley

Among registered voters

CandidateFavorability
Net favorableFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
Joe Biden-1940591
Donald Trump-1542572
Ron DeSantis-21345511
Nikki Haley7383131
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

For Biden and Trump, 20% are unfavorable to both candidates. The number unfavorable to both has remained near 20% since November 2021. The trend for favorability to both Biden and Trump is shown in Table 9. While more respondents have seen Biden favorably and Trump unfavorably in 10 of the last 13 polls, slightly more have seen Trump favorably and Biden unfavorably in the last two polls, in September and November.

Table 9: Favorability to Biden and Trump, Nov. 2021-Nov. 2023

Among registered voters

Poll datesFavorability to both
Biden fav, Trump favBiden fav, Trump unfavBiden unfav, Trump favBiden unfav, Trump unfavDK/NA either
11/2-7/2333638202
9/18-25/2333639202
7/7-12/2313933233
5/8-18/2323536235
3/13-22/2323932235
1/9-20/2314234194
11/15-22/2214430214
9/7-14/2214332213
7/5-12/2203534265
5/9-19/2213936204
3/14-24/2224135183
1/10-21/2224429224
11/1-10/2114330206
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Vote by Biden approval

Biden’s job approval in November was 40%, with 60% disapproving, a change of a single point in each total from September’s 39% approval and 61% disapproval.

A strength of Biden, despite his high disapproval, has been his ability to win “votes” from those who “somewhat disapprove” of how he has handled his job as president, typically splitting or winning a small majority of this group of voters. Table 10 shows how voters choose to vote for Biden or Trump by strength of approval or disapproval of Biden’s job performance. Biden wins large percentages of both categories of approval (“strongly” and “somewhat”), while Trump dominates the strongly disapproving voters, with a Biden advantage among those somewhat disapproving of his job performance.

Table 10: Biden vs. Trump vote, by Biden job approval

Among registered voters

Biden job approvalVote
Donald TrumpJoe Biden
Total5248
Strongly approve397
Somewhat approve991
Somewhat disapprove4555
Strongly disapprove946
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden?
Question for those initially answering “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

When paired against DeSantis, Biden does a bit better with the “somewhat disapprove” group, while the other groups remain unchanged.

Table 11: Biden vs. DeSantis vote, by Biden job approval

Among registered voters

Biden job approvalVote
Ron DeSantisJoe Biden
Total5149
Strongly approve397
Somewhat approve991
Somewhat disapprove4060
Strongly disapprove946
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Ron DeSantis or for Joe Biden?
Question for those initially answering “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose would you vote for Biden or for DeSantis?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

In another example of why Haley does better against Biden than does Trump or DeSantis, she draws more votes from the two categories of approval and slightly leads among the “somewhat disapprove” group, while winning the vast majority of those who strongly disapprove of Biden, as shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Biden vs. Haley vote, by Biden job approval

Among registered voters

Biden job approvalVote
Nikki HaleyJoe Biden
Total5545
Strongly approve793
Somewhat approve1585
Somewhat disapprove5248
Strongly disapprove937
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Nikki Haley or for Joe Biden?
Question for those initially answering “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose would you vote for Biden or for Haley?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Third-party candidates

The ability of potential third-party candidates to influence the election is a growing concern for both major parties. In the new Marquette Law School Poll, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is seen favorably by 38% and unfavorably by 38%, with 24% saying they haven’t heard enough to have an opinion. As shown in Table 13, Kennedy is viewed more favorably by Republicans and independents than by Democrats.

Table 13: Kennedy favorability, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDFavorability
FavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
Total383824
Republican462727
Independent423226
Democrat295120
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question for those initially answering “Independent”: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party or neither?

When asked how likely they would be to vote for Kennedy rather than the Democratic or Republican nominees, if Kennedy were on the ballot, 9% say they would definitely vote for Kennedy, and 28% would probably do so, while 29% would probably not vote for him and 34% would definitely not.

Table 14 shows likelihood of voting for Kennedy by party identification, showing Republicans slightly more likely to say they definitely or probably would vote for Kennedy. More Democrats than Republicans say they would definitely not support Kennedy. Independents are substantially more likely to vote for Kennedy, either “definitely” or “probably,” than are members of either partisan group.

Table 14: Consider voting for Kennedy, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDVote for Kennedy
Definitely vote for KennedyProbably vote for KennedyProbably not vote for KennedyDefinitely not vote for Kennedy
Total9282934
Republican9293428
Independent23422412
Democrat7242445
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the presidential ballot as an independent candidate, how likely would you be to vote for him instead of the Democratic or Republican candidates?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question for those initially answering “Independent”: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party or neither?

Kennedy’s potential to draw votes from those who say they would vote for Biden or Trump without Kennedy on the ballot is shown in Table 15. Slightly more Trump voters say they would definitely or probably vote for Kennedy than do Biden voters, while Biden voters are considerably more likely to say they would “definitely not” vote for Kennedy.

Table 15: Consider voting for Kennedy, by Biden-Trump choice

Among registered voters

Biden-Trump voteVote for Kennedy
Definitely vote for KennedyProbably vote for KennedyProbably not vote for KennedyDefinitely not vote for Kennedy
Total9282934
Donald Trump11313325
Joe Biden8252443
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the presidential ballot as an independent candidate, how likely would you be to vote for him instead of the Democratic or Republican candidates?
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden?
Question for those initially answering “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?

Cornel West

Another potential independent candidate is Cornel West. He is much less well known than Kennedy, with 67% saying they haven’t heard enough to have an opinion, 10% having a favorable opinion, and 22% having an unfavorable view. Table 16 shows favorability to West by party identification. Democrats are more likely to have an opinion, and a more favorable opinion, than are Republicans, though both are more unfavorable than favorable.

Table 16: West favorability, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDFavorability
FavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
Total102267
Republican62271
Independent122068
Democrat142264
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Cornel West or haven’t you heard enough about him yet?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question for those initially answering “Independent”: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party or neither?

West, who is Black, is considerably better known among Black voters than among other racial or ethnic groups. Black voters are the only group with more than half saying they are familiar enough to have an opinion of West, and he is seen more favorably than unfavorably among Black respondents, as shown in Table 17.

Table 17: West favorability, by race and ethnicity

Among registered voters

Party IDFavorability
FavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
Total102267
White72370
Black352343
Hispanic102169
Other/Multiple81577
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

GOP Primary

As previously mentioned, Trump maintains a substantial lead over all others in the primary field for the GOP nomination, with 54% of registered Republican voters, as shown in Table 18. DeSantis and Haley are tied at 12%, which represents a rise for Haley and a decline for DeSantis since March. No other candidate has more than 4% support in the current poll. Sen. Tim Scott suspended his campaign after this poll was conducted.

Table 18: Support for Republican 2024 presidential nomination

Among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

CandidatePoll dates
11/2-7/239/18-25/237/7-12/235/8-18/233/13-22/23
Donald Trump5456464640
Nikki Haley126645
Ron DeSantis1212222535
Vivek Ramaswamy4413
Tim Scott22410
Chris Christie11110
Doug Burgum001
Asa Hutchinson00100
Mike Pence4725
Larry Elder001
Will Hurd00
Undecided/Other1615121612
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Here are some candidates for the Republican presidential nomination. If the primary were today, whom would you vote for?
Note: Tim Scott suspended his campaign after this survey was completed Note: – indicates candidate not included in the particular poll

Republican primary preferences differ sharply depending on the voters’ view of Trump. Unsurprisingly, Trump wins a large majority of voters who have a favorable view of him. Among those unfavorable to Trump, Haley is now the substantial leader with 37% support to DeSantis’ 10%, while 34% of these Republicans unfavorable to Trump remain undecided. Table 19 shows the full results.

Table 19: GOP primary preference, by Trump favorability

Among Republican registered voters

Trump favorabilityPrimary preference
Doug BurgumChris ChristieRon DeSantisNikki HaleyVivek RamaswamyTim ScottDonald TrumpUndecided
Total011212425416
Favorable00125316910
Unfavorable23103765434
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Here are some candidates for the Republican presidential nomination. If the primary were today, whom would you vote for?

Perceptions of Biden and Trump

Table 20 shows which candidate is thought to do a better job on seven issues. Trump is seen as better on immigration and border security, the economy, the Israel-Hamas war, and, to a smaller degree, foreign relations. Biden is seen better on abortion policy and especially on climate change. The two are seen as about equal on handling Medicare and Social Security.

A substantial percentage say both candidates would be about the same on an issue or that neither would be good on the issue. These voters could change their minds over the course of the campaign, providing candidates opportunities to gain support.

Table 20: Who would handle issues better

Among registered voters

IssueWho better on issue
BidenTrumpBoth about the sameNeither good
Immigration and border security2750716
The economy3051711
Handling the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza31421116
Foreign relations3844711
Medicare & Social Security38391112
Abortion policy41341014
Climate change42311116
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Do you think Joe Biden or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues?

Table 21 shows how well various phrases describe Biden and Trump. Biden particularly is seen as “too old” to be president compared to those who see Trump as too old, with 57% saying this describes Biden very well and 23% saying the same of Trump.

On “shares your values,” slightly more say this describes Trump very well than say it of Biden, but many more are emphatic that this does not describe either Trump or Biden at all.

Corruption assertions have been leveled against both candidates. In this poll, 30% say “has behaved corruptly” describes Biden very well and 45% say the same for Trump.

On having a strong record of accomplishment as president, 18% say this describes Biden very well, while 31% say this describes Trump very well.

Table 21: How well does this phrase describe Biden or Trump

Among registered voters

IssueHow well phrase describes
Very wellSomewhat wellNot too wellNot at all well
Is too old to be president
Biden5723812
Trump23282722
Shares your values
Biden15281840
Trump19261342
Has behaved corruptly
Biden30192030
Trump45172018
Strong record of accomplishments as president
Biden18222138
Trump31211532
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Joe Biden)(Donald Trump)?

Approval of Congress

Approval of Congress has declined slightly following the ouster of Rep. Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House on Oct. 3 and the subsequent election of Rep. Mike Johnson as Speaker on Oct. 25. In the November poll, 27% approved of how Congress is handling its job, and 73% disapproved. In September, 30% approved and 70% disapproved of how Congress was handling its job.

More than half of registered voters, 59%, have heard or read a lot about the election of a new Speaker, 26% heard a little, and 15% heard nothing at all about this.

Approval of Congress in November is lower among those who heard or read a lot about the election of a new Speaker than among those who did not follow the news about the Speaker, as shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Approval of Congress, by amount heard about election of new Speaker

Among registered voters

Heard about Speaker electionCongressional approval
ApproveDisapprove
Total2773
A lot2080
A little3763
Nothing at all3367
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job?
Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? … The election of a new Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives

In January, following McCarthy’s election as speaker after 15 ballots, 42% said they thought the House Republicans could unite to govern effectively, while 58% said they could not. Now, following McCarthy’s ouster and Johnson’s election as speaker, 39% think Republicans can unite and 61% that they cannot.

International issues

Following the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, 81% say they have read or heard a lot about the conflict, 16% have heard a little, and 3% say they have heard nothing at all.

A majority, 52%, say the U.S. should support Israel, 5% say the U.S. should support Hamas, and 43% say the U.S. should not take a position on the conflict.

Views of whom to support differ by party, with Republicans most supportive of Israel, Democrats evenly divided between supporting Israel and not taking a position, and independents quite strongly in favor of neutrality, as shown in Table 23.

Table 23: Should U.S. support Israel, Hamas, or not take a position, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDSupport Israel or Hamas
Support IsraelSupport HamasU.S. should not take a position
Total52543
Republican65134
Independent21475
Democrat47845
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, should the U.S. support Israel, support Hamas or not take a position?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question for those initially answering “Independent”: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party or neither?

There are also sharp ideological differences, shown in Table 24, with conservatives more in favor of supporting Israel, while a majority of the most liberal registered voters say the U.S. should not take a position. Support for Hamas remains below 10% for all ideological groups.

Table 24: Should U.S. support Israel, Hamas, or not take a position, by ideology

Among registered voters

 Support Israel or Hamas
Ideology IDSupport IsraelSupport HamasU.S. should not take a position
Total52543
Very conservative73225
Somewhat conservative66133
Moderate45650
Somewhat liberal44649
Very liberal31960
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, should the U.S. support Israel, support Hamas or not take a position?
Question: Generally speaking, how would you describe your political views?

The youngest age group, those 18-29, are the least supportive of Israel and the only age group where support for Hamas exceeds 10%. Support for Israel increases steadily with age, as shown in Table 25.

Table 25: Should U.S. support Israel, Hamas, or not take a position, by age

Among registered voters

AgeSupport Israel or Hamas
Support IsraelSupport HamasU.S. should not take a position
Total52543
18-29231661
30-4437856
45-5959239
60+69031
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, should the U.S. support Israel, support Hamas or not take a position?

Economic perceptions

Registered voters have a negative view of the economy, with 33% rating it poor and 40% saying “not so good,” while 24% say it is good and only 3% say it is excellent. In September, 32% rated it poor and 45% said “not so good,” while 20% said it is good and 3% said the economy is excellent.

Republicans and independents are quite negative in their view of the economy and Democrats somewhat more positive. Table 26 shows opinion of the economy, overall and by party identification.

Table 26: View of the economy, by party identification, September 2023

Among registered voters

Party IDView of the economy
ExcellentGoodNot so goodPoor
Total3244033
Republican093753
Independent1115236
Democrat6424013
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question for those initially answering “Independent”: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party or neither?

Asked about their personal financial situation, in November, 39% say they are living comfortably, 43% are just getting by, and 19% say they are struggling. That is little changed from September, when 37% said they were living comfortably, 45% were just getting by, and 17% said they were struggling.

Partisanship also strongly affects views of the economy, regardless of respondent’s personal financial situation. Table 27 shows views of the economy by family financial situation and by party. Those with a better personal financial situation see the economy as better than those with worse finances, but partisanship is strongly related to view of the economy in each category of personal finances.

Table 27: View of the economy by financial situation and by party identification

Among registered voters

Financial situationView of the ecconomy
ExcellentGoodNot so goodPoor
Living comfortably
Republican1135136
Independent044542
Democrat760276
Just getting by
Republican0103357
Independent296128
Democrat4325113
Struggling
Republican002277
Independent014158
Democrat5125231
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?
Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question for those initially answering “Independent”: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party or neither?

The survey asks about the latest estimates of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the unemployment rate for the most recent month available at the time of the survey, September in this case. Respondents are more than twice as likely to say they have paid a lot of attention to news about inflation than to news about unemployment. Table 28 shows attention paid to news for inflation and news for unemployment.

Table 28: How much heard about economic news

Registered voters

 How much heard or read
IssueA lotA littleNothing at all
Inflation rate493714
Unemployment rate235225
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? … News reports that consumer prices (inflation) rose by 3.7% over the past 12 months (as of September)
Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? … News reports that the unemployment rate was 3.8% (as of September)

Abortion

Preferences over abortion policy have changed little in polling since May 2022, with 66% saying abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 34% say it should be illegal in all or most cases. Table 29 shows the full trend on these preferences. Preferences did not shift substantially following the U.S. Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade in June 2022.

Table 29: Abortion policy preference trend

Among registered voters

Poll datesPolicy preference
Legal in all casesLegal in most casesIllegal in most casesIllegal in all cases
11/2-7/232838259
9/18-25/233336256
7/7-12/232936296
5/8-18/233236266
3/13-22/232836296
1/9-20/232638297
11/15-22/223137248
9/7-14/223235276
7/5-12/222935288
5/9-19/222937258
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases?

Among registered voters, 40% say the abortion issue is one of the most important issues to them, 40% say it is somewhat important, 16% say it is not very important, and 4% say it is not important at all.

Those who say abortion should be legal in all circumstances also rate the issue as among the most important, while a majority of those who say abortion should be illegal in all circumstances also rate it most important, but to a lesser degree. Those who say it should be legal in most cases or illegal in most cases rate the importance of the issue substantially lower, as shown in Table 30.

Table 30: Importance of the abortion issue by policy preference

Among registered voters

Abortion policy preferenceImportance of the issue
One of the most important issuesSomewhat importantNot very importantNot important at all
Total4040164
Legal in all cases662671
Legal in most cases2549224
Illegal in most cases2944234
Illegal in all cases5428215
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: How important is the abortion issue to you–would you say it is one of the most important, somewhat important, not very important, or not important at all?
Question: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases?

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted Nov. 2-7, 2023, interviewing 856 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 668, with a margin of error of +/-5 percentage points. For registered voters who are Republican or independents who lean Republican, the sample size in 398 and the margin of error is +/-6.6 percentage points.

Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. Certain other data from this survey (focusing on those about public views of the Supreme Court) were released yesterday, on Nov. 15. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law School Poll website.