MILWAUKEE – Even as hearings that could lead to President Donald Trump’s impeachment heat up, a new Marquette University Law School poll of Wisconsin registered voters finds consistent, if sometimes modest, shifts in public opinion away from support of impeachment and toward supporting Trump in next year’s presidential election 

For example, Trump holds small leads over each of four top Democratic candidates for president in head-to-head matchups in the new survey, while three of the Democrats held small leads over Trump in the previous poll.

While the shifts in opinion on both impeachment and presidential preferences are not large, they are consistent across multiple questions in the poll. That includes increases in support for Trump’s work on foreign policy and the economy.

The poll was conducted Nov. 13-17, 2019. The sample included 801 registered voters in Wisconsin interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points.

Opinions on impeachment overall

In the new poll, 40 percent of registered voters think that Trump should be impeached and removed from office, while 53 percent do not think so and 6 percent say that they do not know.

In October, before public hearings began, 44 percent favored impeachment and removal from office, while 51 percent were opposed, and 4 percent said they didn’t know.

The November results also find that 52 percent say they believe Trump asked the Ukrainian president to investigate Trump’s political rivals, while 29 percent believe Trump did not do this. Eighteen percent say they don’t know if Trump asked this or not.

Forty-one percent believe Trump withheld military aid to pressure the Ukrainian president to investigate Trump’s political rivals, while 38 percent do not believe Trump did this and 21 percent say they don’t know.

Forty-two percent say that Trump did something seriously wrong in his dealings with Ukraine, 9 percent say he did something wrong but not seriously so, and 38 percent say Trump did nothing wrong. Eleven percent say they don’t know.

Views of impeachment by partisanship and attention to hearings

There are large partisan differences in views of impeachment, with Democrats much more supportive and Republicans much more opposed, and a plurality of independents opposed. Comparing the October and November polls, support for impeachment and removal declined slightly among Democrats, and opposition to removal rose slightly among Republicans. “Don’t know” responses rose among independents and Democrats and barely declined among Republicans.

Table 1: Impeach and remove Trump from office by party identification, November

	Impeach & remove	Don’t think so	Don’t know
Republican	4	94	2
Lean Republican	7	92	1
Independent	36	47	15
Lean Democrat	73	20	8
Democrat	81	11	7

Table 2: Impeach and remove Trump from office by party identification, October

	Impeach & remove	Don’t think so	Don’t know
Republican	6	92	2
Lean Republican	9	88	3
Independent	33	55	10
Lean Democrat	78	16	6
Democrat	88	8	3

Partisans are reacting differently to the testimony and other evidence, with Democrats much more likely than Republicans to say that Trump asked the Ukrainian president to investigate his political rivals. Opinion among independents tends to fall in between the results in the partisan groups.

Table 3: Did Trump ask for investigation of political rivals?

	Yes, did ask	No, did not ask	Don’t know
Republican	29	51	20
Lean Republican	29	53	17
Independent	41	24	33
Lean Democrat	81	8	10
Democrat	80	8	12

While about 3 in 10 Republicans thus think that Trump asked for an investigation (Table 3), only about 1 in 10 Republicans think Trump withheld military aid to pressure the Ukrainian president into an investigation (Table 4, below). Eight in 10 Democrats believe Trump asked for an investigation, and 3 in 4 think that he withheld aid to exert pressure for an investigation. Forty-one percent of independents think Trump asked for an investigation, while 30 percent think he withheld aid as pressure. Independents are the most likely group to say they don’t know if Trump did either of these things, with 33 percent saying they don’t know whether he asked for an investigation and 41 percent saying they don’t know whether he withheld aid.

Table 4: Did Trump withhold aid to pressure Ukraine for investigation of political rivals?

	Yes, held up aid	No, did not hold up aid	Don’t know
Republican	8	70	21
Lean Republican	11	70	19
Independent	30	26	41
Lean Democrat	75	10	15
Democrat	77	7	16

Thirty-two percent of all registered voters say that they are following the news and testimony in the impeachment hearings very closely, with another 33 percent saying they are following fairly closely. Twenty percent are not following too closely, and 14 percent are following not at all closely.

There are no statistically significant differences in attention to the hearings by partisanship, although independents are more likely to say they are not following closely at all.

Table 5: Attention to hearings by party identification

	Very closely	Fairly closely	Not too closely	Not at all closely
Republican	33	36	18	12
Lean Republican	29	34	20	16
Independent	20	26	25	28
Lean Democrat	32	34	21	14
Democrat	39	30	19	11

Those who are following the hearings most closely are much more likely to have an opinion about the evidence than are those not paying close attention. Of those paying very close attention, 61 percent say that Trump asked for an investigation, 33 percent say he did not ask, and only 5 percent say they don’t know. By contrast among those not following the hearings at all closely, 34 percent say Trump asked, 23 percent say he did not ask, and 41 percent say they don’t know.

Table 6: Did Trump ask for investigation of political rivals? By attention to hearings

	Yes, did ask	No, did not ask	Don’t know
Very closely	61	33	5
Fairly closely	56	30	13
Not too closely	46	26	28
Not at all closely	34	23	41

A similar pattern holds with attention and opinion on whether Trump withheld aid to pressure Ukraine for an investigation. Both the percentage saying he did do this and the percentage saying he did not are higher among the most attentive, and both percentages are lower among the least attentive. Among the most attentive, only 4 percent say they don’t know, while over half of the least attentive say they don’t know.

Table 7: Did Trump withhold aid to pressure Ukraine for investigation of political rivals? By attention to hearings

	Yes, held up aid	No, did not hold up aid	Don’t know
Very closely	51	45	4
Fairly closely	46	40	13
Not too closely	32	35	34
Not at all closely	20	23	55

General election matchups

Wisconsin voters were asked whom they would support as of now in the presidential election, Trump or each of four leading candidates for the Democratic nomination. Trump has 3-point leads over former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders, a 5-point margin over Sen. Elizabeth Warren, and an 8-point lead over Mayor Pete Buttigieg. In October, Biden, Sanders, and Warren had small leads and Buttigieg trailed by 2 percentage points.

A summary of the general election results in this November poll is shown in Table 8. For comparison, the October results are shown in Table 9 and the August results in Table 10. In August, Trump was tested against Sen. Kamala Harris rather than Buttigieg.

Table 8: November General Election Matchups

Matchup	Pct	Matchup	Pct	Matchup	Pct	Matchup	Pct
Biden	44	Sanders	45	Warren	43	Buttigieg	39
Trump	47	Trump	48	Trump	48	Trump	47
Neither	5	Neither	5	Neither	4	Neither	6
Don’t know	2	Don’t know	2	Don’t know	4	Don’t know	7

Table 9: October General Election Matchups

Matchup	Pct	Matchup	Pct	Matchup	Pct	Matchup	Pct
Biden	50	Sanders	48	Warren	47	Buttigieg	43
Trump	44	Trump	46	Trump	46	Trump	45
Neither	3	Neither	4	Neither	4	Neither	5
Don’t know	3	Don’t know	2	Don’t know	2	Don’t know	7

Table 10: August General Election Matchups

Matchup	Pct	Matchup	Pct	Matchup	Pct	Matchup	Pct
Biden	51	Sanders	48	Warren	45	Harris	44
Trump	42	Trump	44	Trump	45	Trump	44
Neither	4	Neither	5	Neither	5	Neither	6
Don’t know	2	Don’t know	2	Don’t know	5	Don’t know	6

In the new poll, two additional general election matchups tested Trump against Sen. Amy Klobuchar and Sen. Cory Booker. Each of these was asked of half the polling sample, and they have a margin of error of 5.7 and 5.8 percent, respectively. While the half-samples were selected randomly, the half with Booker versus Trump has significantly more younger voters than the half with Klobuchar. Sanders also does better in the Booker half-sample, although no other candidates do significantly better in either half-sample.

Table 11: General Election Matches

Match	Pct	Match	Pct
Klobuchar	36	Booker	45
Trump	50	Trump	44
Neither	7	Neither	4
Don’t know	5	Don’t know	5

Vote by party identification, November vs. October

None of the shifts in vote preference between October and November reaches statistical significance. The shifts in the balance of the vote are largely due to slightly greater partisan loyalty among Republicans and slightly lower loyalty among Democrats. The party balance between October and November samples was unchanged, with 45 percent identifying themselves as Republican or leaning Republican and 44 percent identifying themselves as Democrat or leaning Democrat in each month.

Democratic presidential primary candidates

Table 16: First and second choice in Democratic primary (among Democratic primary voters)
Response	First Choice	Second Choice
Joe Biden	30	15
Bernie Sanders	17	18
Elizabeth Warren	15	19
Pete Buttigieg	13	10
Cory Booker	3	3
Amy Klobuchar	3	8
Kamala Harris	2	4
Andrew Yang	2	2
Tom Steyer	1	1
Marianne Williamson	1	0
Steve Bullock	1	0
Michael Bennet	0	0
Julián Castro	0	0
John Delaney	0	1
Someone else (VOL)	1	1
Would not vote (VOL)	1	0
Don’t know	10	10
Refused	1	1

Democratic presidential primary preference items were asked of those who said that they will vote in the Democratic primary in April. That sample size is 340, with a margin of error of +/-6.4 percentage points.

Among those who say they will vote in the Democratic primary, Biden receives the most support. Biden is the first choice of 30 percent, followed by Sanders at 17 percent, Warren at 15 percent, and Pete Buttigieg at 13 percent. Booker and Klobuchar receive 3 percent each. Harris and Yang are the top choices of 2 percent each, while all other candidates receive 1 percent or less.

The complete results for the Democratic primary are shown in Table 16.

Almost two-thirds of Democratic primary voters, 62 percent, say they might change their minds about their primary choice, while 37 percent say their mind is made up.

Table 17: Favorability ratings of six candidates among Democratic primary sample

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
Joe Biden	67	20	6	6
Bernie Sanders	67	24	7	2
Elizabeth Warren	56	19	21	4
Pete Buttigieg	45	11	37	7
Cory Booker	36	14	39	11
Amy Klobuchar	27	16	45	12

Among the Democratic primary sample, favorability of candidates is shown in Table 17.

Trump job approval

Forty-seven percent of registered voters approve of the job Trump is doing as president, with 51 percent disapproving. That is little changed from October, when 46 percent approved and 51 percent disapproved.

Fifty-five percent of those polled approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 43 percent disapprove. In October, 51 percent approved and 45 percent disapproved.

Forty-four percent of those polled approve of Trump’s handling of foreign policy, while 52 percent disapprove. In October, 37 percent approved and 59 percent disapproved.

Thirty-seven percent say that Trump’s foreign policies have helped America’s standing in the world, while 53 percent say his policies have hurt the standing of the country.

Twenty percent say that the decision to remove most U.S. troops from Syria strengthens the United States, while 38 percent say this weakens the country and 34 percent say it doesn’t make much difference. An additional 8 percent say they don’t know.

Economic outlook and issues

Wisconsin registered voters hold a positive view of the recent performance of the economy, with 42 percent saying the economy has improved over the past year, 18 percent saying it has worsened, and 37 percent saying it has stayed the same. In October, 41 percent said the economy had improved, 20 percent said it had worsened, and 36 percent said it has stayed the same.

Looking ahead to the next year, 35 percent say the economy will improve, while 24 percent think it will get worse and 37 percent say it will remain the same. That reverses the more negative outlook in October, when 25 percent said the economy would improve, 30 percent said it would worsen, and 39 percent said it would remain the same.

Chronic wasting disease

Deer hunters in Wisconsin are more aware than are non-hunters of chronic wasting disease, which affects deer through much of the state.

Table 18: Awareness of CWD by hunter or non-hunter

	A lot	Some	Not much	Nothing at all
Deer hunter	59	30	7	3
Not deer hunter	25	36	20	16

A majority of hunters approve of the job the Department of Natural Resources is doing handling CWD. A plurality of non-hunters also approve, but non-hunters are more than twice as likely as hunters to say they don’t know how DNR is doing in addressing CWD.

Table 19: Approve DNR handling of CWD by hunter or non-hunter

	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know
Deer hunter	56	29	15
Not deer hunter	45	16	38

Hunters and non-hunters alike see CWD as a threat to the future of deer hunting in Wisconsin.

Table 20: See CWD as threat to future of deer hunting by hunter or non-hunter

	Yes	No	Don’t know
Deer hunter	65	31	4
Not deer hunter	62	18	19

Opinion of the governor and legislature

Governor Tony Evers’ job approval stands at 47 percent, with disapproval at 42. Ten percent say they don’t have an opinion. In October, 52 percent approved, 34 percent disapproved, and 13 percent lacked an opinion.

Approval of the job the Wisconsin legislature is doing is 48 percent and disapproval is 39 percent, with 13 percent saying they don’t know. When last asked in August, 52 percent approved, 38 percent disapproved, and 8 percent lacked an opinion.

On Nov. 5, the state Senate voted to reject Evers’ nominee for secretary of the Department of Agriculture, Trade and Consumer Protection. Twenty-two percent say rejecting the nominee was the right thing for the Senate to do, 25 percent say it was the wrong thing to do, and 47 percent said they haven’t heard anything about this. An additional 6 percent say they don’t have an opinion.

Favorability rating of elected officials

Table 21 presents the favorability ratings of elected officials in Wisconsin and the percentage of respondents who haven’t heard enough or say they don’t know.

Table 21: Favorability ratings of elected officials

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
Donald Trump	46	50	2	1
Tony Evers	43	41	12	3
Ron Johnson	39	29	24	7
Tammy Baldwin	39	43	12	5

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 801 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone, Nov. 13-17, 2019. The margin of error is +/-4.1 percentage points for the full sample.

The Democratic presidential candidate preference items were asked of Democrats, independents who lean Democratic, and independents who do not lean to either party. That sample size is 340 with a margin of error of +/-6.4 percentage points.

Two presidential matchup questions were asked of half-samples. Klobuchar vs. Trump was asked of 400 respondents, with a margin of error of +/- 5.7 percentage points. Booker vs. Trump was asked of 401 respondents, with a margin of error of +/- 5.8 percentage points.

The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 45 percent Republican, 44 percent Democratic, and 10 percent independent. The partisan makeup of the sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 28 percent Republican, 28 percent Democratic, and 42 percent independent.

Since January 2017, the long-term partisan balance, including those who lean to a party, in the Marquette poll has been 45 percent Republican and 45 percent Democratic, with 9 percent independent. Partisanship, excluding those who lean, has been 30 percent Republican and 29 percent Democratic, with 40 percent independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.

MILWAUKEE —With 14 months to go until the 2020 presidential election, former Vice President Joe Biden is favored by 51 percent and President Donald Trump by 42 percent among Wisconsin registered voters in a potential match. Four percent say they would not support either candidate and 2 percent say they don’t know. This is the first Marquette Law School Poll of 2019 that has asked head-to-head vote choices for potential 2020 nominees.

In a match with Sen. Bernie Sanders, Sanders receives 48 percent and Trump 44 percent, with 5 percent supporting neither and 2 percent who don’t know.

When matched against Trump, Sen. Elizabeth Warren is the choice of 45 percent and Trump is the choice of 45 percent, with 5 percent supporting neither and 5 percent saying they don’t know.

Sen. Kamala Harris is supported by 44 percent to Trump’s 44 percent, while 6 percent support neither and 6 percent say they don’t know.

A summary of the general election matches is shown in Table 1.

Table 1: General Election Matches

Match	Pct	Match	Pct	Match	Pct	Match	Pct
Joe Biden	51	Bernie Sanders	48	Elizabeth Warren	45	Kamala Harris	44
Donald Trump	42	Donald Trump	44	Donald Trump	45	Donald Trump	44
Neither	4	Neither	5	Neither	5	Neither	6
Don’t know	2	Don’t know	2	Don’t know	5	Don’t know	6

The poll was conducted Aug. 25-29, 2019. The sample included 800 registered voters in Wisconsin interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points.

Democratic presidential candidate preference items were asked of Democrats, independents who lean Democratic, and independents who do not lean to either party. That sample size is 444 with a margin of error of +/-5.3 percentage points.

Four issue-related questions were asked of half the sample (Form A) and four were asked of the other half-sample (Form B). Questions on Form A have a sample size of 400 and a margin of error of +/- 5.6 percentage points. Questions on Form B have a sample size of 400 and a margin of error of +/- 5.5 percentage points.

Democratic Presidential Primary Candidates

Among Democrats, independents who lean Democratic, and independents who do not lean to either party (hereafter “the Democratic primary sample”), Biden receives the most support for the April 2020 presidential primary. Biden is the first choice of 28 percent, followed by Sanders at 20 percent, Warren at 17 percent and Pete Buttigieg at 6 percent. Harris receives 3 percent, while all other candidates receive 2 percent or less.

The complete results for the Democratic primary are shown in Table 2.

Table 2: First and second choice in the Democratic primary sample (Democrats, independents who lean Democratic and independents without a partisan lean).
Response	First Choice	Second Choice
Joe Biden	28	18
Bernie Sanders	20	13
Elizabeth Warren	17	20
Pete Buttigieg	6	10
Kamala Harris	3	11
Andrew Yang	2	2
Cory Booker	1	3
Kirsten Gillibrand	1	1
Amy Klobuchar	1	2
Tom Steyer	1	0
Steve Bullock	1	0
Beto O’Rourke	1	1
Tulsi Gabbard	0	2
John Delaney	0	1
Michael Bennet	0	0
Tim Ryan	0	0
Julián Castro	0	1
Marianne Williamson	0	0
Bill de Blasio	0	0
Wayne Messam	0	0
Joe Sestak	0	0
Someone else (VOL)	1	0
Would not vote (VOL)	2	1
Don’t know	13	13
Refused	1	0

Among the Democratic primary sample, favorability of five candidates is shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Favorability ratings of five candidates among Democratic primary sample

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
Joe Biden	70	20	8	2
Bernie Sanders	63	21	11	5
Elizabeth Warren	53	12	27	7
Pete Buttigieg	37	7	45	11
Kamala Harris	35	14	41	10

Economic outlook and issues

Wisconsin registered voters hold a net positive view of the performance of the economy over the past 12 months, with 37 percent saying the economy has improved over the past year, 25 percent saying it has worsened, and 34 percent saying it has stayed the same.

By contrast, the outlook for the next year is not net positive, with 26 percent saying the economy will improve, while 37 percent think it will get worse and 33 percent saying the economy will remain the same.

The outlook for the coming year among those polled in 2019 is less favorable than among those polled in 2018 as more respondents now see the prospect of a worsening economy. The August poll is the second in 2019 that has seen net pessimism about the economic outlook. The previous net negative reading was in January 2019, during the federal government shutdown.

In 2018, the average future outlook was 14.7 percent net positive, while in 2019 the average outlook has been net negative -3 percent.

The full results since February 2018 are shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Outlook for the economy over next year

Poll Date	Get better	Get worse	Stay the same	Don’t know	Net
2018-02-25	37	20	38	5	17
2018-06-13	35	25	37	3	10
2018-8-15	38	25	31	5	13
2018-9-12	37	24	34	5	13
2018-10-3	42	20	32	7	22
2018-10-24	38	25	29	8	13
2019-1-16	29	34	30	6	-5
2019-4-3	34	27	34	5	7
2019-8-25	26	37	33	5	-11

Forty-five percent approve of the job Trump is doing as president, with 53 percent disapproving. That is little changed from April when 46 percent approved and 52 percent disapproved.

Forty-nine percent of those polled approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 50 percent disapprove.

Partisanship strongly affects views of both the economy and Trump’s handling of it. In Table 5, 41 percent of Republican and independents who lean Republican think the economy will improve over the next 12 months, 42 percent think it will stay the same and 12 percent think it will worsen.

In contrast, among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, 12 percent think the economy will improve, 23 percent think it will remain the same, and 63 percent think the economy will worsen.

Twenty-one percent of independents who do not lean to a party expect the economy to improve, 37 percent think it will stay the same and 33 percent expect an economic downturn.

Table 5: Economic Outlook (Next 12 Months) by Party Identification

	Get better	Get worse	Stay the same	Don’t know
Republican	41	12	42	5
Democrat	12	63	23	2
Independent	21	33	37	9

Table 6 shows approval of Trump’s handling of the economy by party. While Republicans and Democrats are near-mirror images of each other, independents on balance disapprove of Trump’s handing of the economy.

Table 6: Trump Economic Job Approval by Party Identification

	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know
Republican	88	11	0
Democrat	9	89	1
Independent	43	51	6

Tariffs on Chinese imports were raised on Sept. 1, after the poll was completed, although the tariff increase was announced by Trump on Twitter on Aug. 23 before interviews began on Aug. 25. Respondents were asked if imposing tariffs or fees on products imported from other countries helps the U.S. economy, hurts the economy or doesn’t make much of a difference either way. Thirty percent say tariffs help the economy, 46 percent say they hurt the economy, and 17 percent say tariffs don’t make much difference either way.

Table 7 shows views of tariffs by party identification, including leaners as partisans.

Table 7: Impact of tariffs on economy by party identification

	Helps US economy	Hurts US economy	Doesn’t make much difference	Don’t know
Republican	47	21	22	8
Democrat	12	72	13	3
Independent	34	47	15	3

Gun legislation and opinion

This poll was completed after the mass shootings in El Paso, Texas, on Aug. 3 and in Dayton, Ohio, on Aug. 4, but before the mass shooting in Odessa and Midland, Texas, on Aug. 31. Opinion on potential changes to gun laws has changed little from previous polling on gun issues.

Table 8 shows the trend in support and opposition to universal background checks for firearm sales.

Table 8: Trend in support or opposition to background checks

Poll Date	Support	Oppose	Don’t know
2013-3-13	81	17	2
2013-5-9	71	26	2
2016-1-24	85	12	2
2018-02-25	81	16	2
2019-8-25	80	16	3

Note: ^a Prior to 2019 options were ‘Favor’ or ‘Oppose’

Households with guns are only a little less supportive of background checks than those without a gun. Seventy-five percent of respondents from households with a gun support background checks, while 88 percent of those without a gun do so. Those who refuse to say if there is a gun in the household are more opposed to background checks. Six percent of respondents refused to say if there was a gun in the household. These results are shown in Table 9.

Table 9: Support or oppose background checks by gun in household (August 2019)

Gun Household	Support	Oppose	Don’t know
Yes	75	22	3
No	88	8	3
Refused	69	27	5

“Red-flag” laws that would allow police to take away guns from people who have been found by a judge to be a danger to themselves or others are supported by 81 percent and opposed by 12 percent. Eighty-one percent of respondents in households with a gun support such red-flag laws as do 86 percent of those without a gun in the household. Those refusing to say if there is a gun in the household are less supportive of red-flag laws, as shown in Table 10. This question has not been asked before in the Marquette Law School Poll.

Table 10: Support or oppose red-flag law by gun in household (August 2019)

Gun Household	Support	Oppose	Don’t know
Yes	81	13	7
No	86	9	6
Refused	46	25	29

Support for a ban on “assault-style weapons” is lower than support for background checks or red-flag laws. Table 11 shows the trend in support or opposition to a ban on assault-style weapons, and Table 12 shows the views of residents in households with or without a gun.

Table 11: Trend in support or opposition to ban on `assault-style weapons’

Poll Date	Support	Oppose	Don’t know
2013-3-13	54	43	3
2018-02-25	56	40	3
2019-8-25	57	40	3

Note: ^a Prior to 2019 options were ‘Favor’ or ‘Oppose’

Table 12: Support or oppose ban on `assault-style weapons’ by gun in household (August 2019)

Gun Household	Support	Oppose	Don’t know
Yes	49	50	2
No	71	26	3
Refused	16	66	14

Feelings toward the National Rifle Association (NRA) were measured on a 100-point “feeling thermometer” where 100 means very warm or favorable feelings, zero means very cold or unfavorable feelings, while a score of 50 means neither favorable nor unfavorable feelings. Respondents can assign any score between 0 and 100.

Overall, the average score for the NRA was 50.2.

Average feelings toward the NRA are shown in Table 13 for men and women in urban, suburban and rural areas.

The average rating of the NRA is the approximately the same for urban and suburban men, and several points higher among rural men. Women in urban areas are about 10 points less favorable to the NRA than are urban men. Suburban women are 12 points less favorable than suburban men. Women in rural areas, however, are equally favorable to the NRA as are rural men.

Table 13: Average ‘feeling thermometer’ score for the National Rifle Association by gender and urban-suburban-rural residence

	Urban	Suburban	Rural
Male	52.3	51.7	57.8
Female	41.7	39.7	58.4

Views of a diverse society and immigrants

Sixty-five percent of respondents think an increasingly diverse population of different races, ethnic groups and nationalities makes the United States a better place to live. Four percent think this makes the U.S. a worse place, and 27 percent think it doesn’t make much difference. When last asked in October 2016, 53 percent said an increasingly diverse population made the U.S. better, 9 percent said it made the country worse, and 35 percent said it made little difference.

Asked to rate immigrants on the 0-to-100 point “feeling thermometer,” the average score given to “legal immigrants” was 78.8, while the average rating for “illegal immigrants” was 42.5.

The average thermometer score given to “Muslims” was 63.1, while that given to “evangelical Christians” was 58.6. Muslims were rated on average between 59 and 68 on the “feeling thermometer” by each of four religious groups, while evangelicals were rated over 75 by evangelicals, but at 33 by those without a religion. Mainline Protestant and Roman Catholic respondents gave evangelical Christians similar 59 and 61 average ratings respectively.

Views of racial disparity

A majority of respondents, 53 percent, agree that there is a lot of discrimination against blacks in the U.S., while 45 percent disagree.

A larger majority, 62 percent, disagree with a statement that racial disparities are only a matter of effort and that “if blacks would only try harder they could be just as well off as whites.” Thirty percent agree with a statement that black disadvantage is a matter of effort.

A minority, 41 percent, agree with a statement that blacks have gotten less than they deserve over the past few years, with 51 percent disagreeing with that statement.

A majority of respondents, 58 percent, say that Hispanic people have the same chance of getting ahead as people from most other ethnic backgrounds. Twenty-seven percent say Hispanic people have a worse chance of getting ahead, and 10 percent say they have a better chance.

Water-quality issues

Forty-three percent of respondents say they are very or somewhat concerned about the safety of their community’s water supply, while 57 percent say they are not too concerned or not at all concerned.

Fifty-two percent say the state of Wisconsin is doing an excellent or good job protecting the safety of public drinking water, while 39 percent say the state is doing a fair or poor job.

A substantial majority of respondents, 74 percent, say the state should provide financial support for replacing lead pipes between water mains and residences because of the health risks posed by lead pipes. Sixteen percent say this cost should be paid entirely by the owner of the residence.

Opinion of the governor and legislature

Governor Tony Evers’ job approval stands at 54 percent, with disapproval at 34 percent. Ten percent say they don’t have an opinion. In April, 47 percent approved, 37 percent disapproved, and 15 percent lacked an opinion.

Approval of the job the Wisconsin legislature is doing is 52 percent and disapproval is 38 percent, with 8 percent saying they don’t know. In April, 50 percent approved, 38 percent disapproved, and 11 percent lacked an opinion.

State of the state

Fifty-five percent of respondents say the state is headed in the right direction, while 37 percent say it is off on the wrong track. In April, 52 percent said the state was going in the right direction and 40 percent said it was on the wrong track.

Table 14 presents the favorability ratings of elected officials in Wisconsin and the percentage of respondents who haven’t heard enough or say they don’t know.

Table 14: Favorability ratings of elected officials

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
Tony Evers	49	35	11	5
Tammy Baldwin	44	40	13	3
Donald Trump	42	53	1	3
Ron Johnson	40	29	25	6
Scott Fitzgerald	19	20	49	12
Robin Vos	15	20	52	13

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 800 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone, Aug. 25-29, 2019. The margin of error is +/-3.9 percentage points for the full sample.

The Democratic presidential candidate preference items were asked of Democrats, independents who lean Democratic and independents who do not lean to either party. That sample size is 444 with a margin of error of +/-5.3 percentage points.

Four questions were asked of half the sample (Form A) and four were asked of the other half-sample (Form B). Questions on Form A have a sample size of 400 and a margin of error of +/- 5.6 percentage points. Questions on Form B have a sample size of 400 and a margin of error of +/- 5.5 percentage points. (The small difference in margin of error is due to rounding of the 2nd decimal point after weighting the half-samples.)

Form A questions were right direction or wrong track for the state and three items on water quality issues. Form B questions were approval of the state legislature and three gun-related issues.

The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 46 percent Republican, 45 percent Democratic and 8 percent independent. The partisan makeup of the sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 26 percent Republican, 28 percent Democratic and 46 percent independent.

Since January 2017, the long-term partisan balance, including those who lean to a party, in the Marquette poll has been 45 percent Republican and 45 percent Democratic, with 9 percent independent. Partisanship, excluding those who lean, has been 30 percent Republican and 29 percent Democratic, with 40 percent independent. The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results, and breakdowns by demographic groups, are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.