MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll finds Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton with 43 percent support and Republican candidate Donald Trump with 37 percent support in a head-to-head presidential matchup among Wisconsin registered voters. Eleven percent say they will vote for neither candidate.

In the previous Marquette Law School Poll, in June, Clinton had 42 percent support and Trump 35 percent, with 17 percent saying they would vote for neither.

Among likely voters, i.e., those who say they are certain they will vote in November, Clinton is supported by 45 percent and Trump by 41 percent in the new poll, with 9 percent saying they will support neither candidate. In June likely voters gave Clinton 46 percent support, Trump 37 percent and 13 percent said they would vote for neither.

In a four-way matchup among Clinton, Trump, Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Clinton receives 40 percent, Trump 33, Johnson 10 and Stein 4. A total of 12 percent in that matchup say they will vote for none of the candidates, won’t vote or don’t know how they will vote. Among likely voters, Clinton receives 43 percent, Trump 37, Johnson 8 and Stein 2 percent.

In a head-to-head matchup for Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race, among registered voters, Democratic candidate Russ Feingold is supported by 48 percent while Republican incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson receives 41 percent. In June, Feingold had 45 percent and Johnson 41 percent.

Among likely voters in November’s election, Feingold has the support of 49 percent while Johnson is supported by 44 percent. In June, Feingold had 51 percent to Johnson’s 42 percent among likely voters.

When Libertarian candidate Phil Anderson is included in the Senate contest, among registered voters, Feingold receives 45 percent, Johnson 38 percent and Anderson 8 percent. Among likely voters, it is Feingold 46 percent, Johnson 40 percent and Anderson 7 percent.

Among Republicans and independents who lean Republican, 80 percent say they are absolutely certain they will vote in November compared to 78 percent in the June poll. Among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, certainty of voting fell to 78 percent in July from 84 percent in June.

The poll was conducted July 7-10, 2016. The full sample includes 801 registered voters interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. Results for likely voters are based on 665 respondents, with a margin of error of +/- 4.5 percentage points.

Favorable and unfavorable views of candidates

Trump is viewed favorably by 29 percent and unfavorably by 63 percent of registered voters. Eight percent say they either haven’t heard enough or don’t know how they feel about him. In June, Trump’s rating was 26 percent favorable and 64 percent unfavorable.

Clinton is viewed favorably by 36 percent and unfavorably by 58 percent of registered voters. Five percent say they haven’t heard enough or don’t know how they feel about her. In June, 37 percent rated Clinton favorably and 58 percent unfavorably.

Johnson, the Libertarian presidential candidate, is seen favorably by 11 percent and unfavorably by 10 percent, with 79 percent lacking an opinion of him.

In the U.S. Senate race, Feingold is seen favorably by 40 percent and unfavorably by 32 percent, with 27 percent lacking an opinion. Johnson has a 34 percent favorable and 35 percent unfavorable rating, with 32 percent without an opinion. Libertarian candidate Anderson is viewed favorably by 2 percent and unfavorably by 4 percent, with 94 percent lacking an opinion of him. In June, Feingold had a 40 percent favorable and 33 percent unfavorable rating while Johnson’s was 33 percent favorable and 31 percent unfavorable.

Candidate traits

There has been little change in perception of the presidential candidates between the June and July polls, despite media coverage of controversies involving both candidates. That included FBI Director James Comey’s announcement that the Clinton email server investigation had been closed. The July poll began interviews two days after Comey’s announcement.

Asked if “honest” describes Clinton, in the July poll, 28 percent say it does while 68 percent say it does not, the same percentages as in the June poll. Asked if she has the qualifications to be president, 56 percent say Clinton does, while 42 percent say she does not, also the same as in the June poll.

For Trump, 33 percent of July respondents say “honest” describes him, while 62 percent say it does not. In June, 32 percent described him as honest and 62 percent said this did not describe him. Thirty-two percent in July say Trump has the qualifications to be president, while 67 percent say he does not. In June, 30 percent said he had the qualifications and 66 percent did not think so.

There has been similarly slight change in comfort with Clinton and Trump as president. In July, 40 percent say they are very or somewhat comfortable with Clinton as president, with 60 percent very or somewhat uncomfortable, including 43 percent saying they are “very uncomfortable.” In June, 38 percent were very or somewhat comfortable, with 61 percent very or somewhat uncomfortable, including 42 percent “very uncomfortable.”

For Trump, in July, 30 percent say they are very or somewhat comfortable with him as president while 68 percent say they are very or somewhat uncomfortable, including 53 percent saying “very uncomfortable.” In June, 28 percent were very or somewhat comfortable with Trump while 72 percent were very or somewhat uncomfortable, including 55 percent very uncomfortable.

Party unity and division

In the head-to-head matchup of Clinton versus Trump, 80 percent of Republicans support Trump, 3 percent vote for Clinton and 15 percent say they would vote for neither, not vote or don’t know. Among Democrats, 93 percent support Clinton and 3 percent Trump, with 4 percent saying neither, they would not vote or don’t know. Independents split 34 percent for Clinton, 36 percent for Trump and 30 percent saying neither, they wouldn’t vote or they don’t know. In June, Trump received 78 percent support from Republicans, Clinton was backed by 91 percent of Democrats and independents divided 31 percent for Clinton and 32 percent for Trump with 35 percent saying neither, they wouldn’t vote or they don’t know.

When third-party candidates are included in the vote question, 76 percent of Republicans say they will vote for Trump, 3 percent for Clinton, 10 percent for Johnson, 1 percent for Stein, with 9 percent saying they would vote for none of these candidates, would not vote or don’t know. Among Democrats, 89 percent back Clinton, 3 percent Trump, 3 percent Johnson, and 2 percent Stein, while 2 percent support none, wouldn’t vote or don’t know.

With the third-party candidates specifically mentioned in the question, independents divide 29 percent for Clinton, 30 percent for Trump, 15 percent for Johnson and 6 percent for Stein, with 20 percent saying they would vote for none of these candidates, would not vote or don’t know.

Divisions remain in both parties following a lengthy and contentious nomination process.

Among Republicans and independents who lean Republican, 59 percent say the Republican convention should nominate Trump, while 39 percent say they would like the Republican convention to nominate someone other than Trump. Among those saying Trump should be the nominee, 97 percent say they will vote for Trump over Clinton. Forty-two percent of those wishing for a different nominee say they will vote for Trump, 13 percent for Clinton and 45 percent say they will vote for neither, not vote or don’t know.

In the four-way presidential matchup, 96 percent support Trump among those saying he should be the nominee, with 3 percent for Johnson, none for Clinton or Stein and 1 percent undecided. Of those who would like a different nominee, 33 percent would vote for Trump, 28 percent for Johnson, 10 percent for Clinton and 2 percent for Stein. Twenty-seven percent say they would vote for none of these, not vote or don’t know.

Among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, 50 percent say they prefer Clinton to be the party’s nominee while 47 percent prefer Sanders. In June, 44 percent preferred Clinton and 53 percent supported Sanders. Among those choosing Clinton as the nominee, 95 percent say they will vote for her over Trump in November. Among those who would prefer Sanders as the nominee, 68 percent say they will vote for Clinton, 9 percent for Trump and 23 percent for neither, not vote or don’t know. In June, Clinton received 67 percent support among those who preferred Sanders as the nominee while Trump won 4 percent of Sanders backers. Clinton was the choice of 97 percent of those who supported her for the nomination.

In the four-way matchup, Democrats preferring Clinton as the nominee give her 90 percent support, 1 percent for Trump, 2 percent for Johnson, 2 percent for Stein and 4 percent say none of these, they would not vote or they don’t know. Among those who prefer Sanders as the nominee, 61 percent say they will vote for Clinton, 6 percent for Trump, 14 percent for Johnson, 10 percent for Stein and 9 percent would not support any of these or not vote or don’t know.

Republicans and independents who lean Republican see their party as divided, with 46 percent saying it is divided now and will still be divided in November, 45 percent saying it is divided now but will unite before the election, and 5 percent saying the party is united now. In June, 45 percent said the GOP would remain divided, 41 percent said it was divided but would unite, and 12 percent said it was already united.

Among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, 19 percent say the party is divided and will remain so, 40 percent say it is divided but will unite before the election and 39 percent say the party is united now. In June, just 18 percent said the party was united, 53 percent said it was divided but would unite, and 26 percent thought it would remain divided.

Views on illegal drugs

Registered voters were asked, “When it comes to marijuana, some people think that the drug should be fully legalized and regulated like alcohol. Do you agree or disagree with that view?” Fifty-nine percent say they agree while 39 percent disagree. In September 2014, when the poll last asked about marijuana, a different question wording was used: “Do you think the use of marijuana should be made legal or not?” In that poll, 46 percent said it should be legal and 51 percent said it should not be legal.

In the July poll, 42 percent of Republicans agree that marijuana should be legal while 56 percent disagree. Sixty-eight percent of Democrats agree it should be legal while 30 percent disagree. Independents divide with 63 percent supporting legalization and 36 opposed.

Asked to agree or disagree that each of four drugs “is a major problem in the area where I live,” 41 percent agree that marijuana is a major problem while 53 percent disagree.

Sixty-two percent agree that heroin is a major problem where they live while 30 percent disagree.

Fifty-four percent agree that methamphetamine or “crystal meth” is a major problem in their area while 39 percent do not think so.

Forty-three percent say crack cocaine is a major problem while 46 percent disagree that it is a major problem where they live.

Views of elected officials

Approval of how Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is handling his job stands at 38 percent, with disapproval at 58 percent. In June, approval was 39 percent and disapproval was 57 percent.

House Speaker Paul Ryan is viewed favorably by 48 percent of registered voters and unfavorably by 33 percent. Eighteen percent do not have an opinion of him. In June, 49 percent had a favorable opinion, 32 percent unfavorable and 18 percent were unable to say.

President Obama’s job approval stands at 51 percent, with 45 percent disapproval. In June, 51 percent approved and 43 percent disapproved.

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 801 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone, July 7‑10, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4.1 percentage points for the full sample. For likely voters, the unweighted sample size is 665 and weighted sample size is 629, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points.

The partisan makeup of the full registered-voter sample, including those who lean to a party, is 41 percent Republican, 49 percent Democratic and 9 percent independent. The long-term estimate over the previous 35 statewide Marquette polls, with 30,540 respondents, is 42 percent Republican and 48 percent Democratic, with 9 percent independent. The partisan makeup of this sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 25 percent Republican, 30 percent Democratic and 41 percent independent, compared to the long-term estimate of 27 percent Republican, 31 percent Democratic and 39 percent independent.

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll finds Hillary Clinton with 42 percent and Donald Trump with 35 percent support among Wisconsin registered voters in a presidential race matchup. Seventeen percent say they will vote for neither candidate.

In the previous Marquette Law School Poll, in March, Clinton had 47 percent support and Trump 37 percent.

Among likely voters, i.e., those who say they are certain they will vote in November, Clinton receives 46 percent to Trump’s 37 percent in the new poll, with 13 percent saying they will support neither candidate.

While Clinton is the presumptive Democratic candidate, a head-to-head matchup between Democratic candidate Bernie Sanders and Trump finds Sanders leading 56 percent to 31 percent among registered voters and 57 percent to 33 percent among likely voters.

In Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race, among registered voters, Democratic candidate Russ Feingold is supported by 45 percent while Republican incumbent Sen. Ron Johnson receives 41 percent. In March, Feingold had 47 percent and Johnson 42 percent. Among likely voters in November’s election, Feingold has the support of 51 percent while Johnson is supported by 42 percent. Two percent say they will support neither and 5 percent say they don’t know whom they will support.

Differences between registered and likely voters reflect shifting enthusiasm among Republicans and Democrats. In this new poll, 78 percent of Republicans say they are certain they will vote in November, a drop of 9 percentage points from the 87 percent who said so in March. Meanwhile, Democratic intentions to vote have increased, rising in June to 84 percent certain to vote from 81 percent in March. These shifts in likely-voter intentions account for the stronger support for Democrats in both presidential and senate races among likely voters than among all registered voters. By contrast, in June 2012, 90 percent of Republicans said they were certain to vote in November, as did 80 percent of Democrats.

“The likelihood of voting reflects both personal involvement in politics and current campaign events,” said Charles Franklin, professor of law and public policy and director of the Marquette Law School Poll. “Studies have shown that this likelihood can fluctuate over the course of the campaign, only settling down as we move past Labor Day. However, the current data show the difficulty the Republican Party is currently facing with a sharp drop in enthusiasm for voting this November. After the national conventions in July, as both parties attempt to unify and rally their supporters, we will have a better idea how turnout will affect the election.”

The poll was conducted June 9-12, 2016. The full sample includes 800 registered voters interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points. Results for likely voters are based on 666 respondents with a margin of error of +/- 4.9 percentage points.

Party unity and divisions
Each party faces divisions left over from the primary season. Among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, supporters of Sanders remain reluctant to vote for Clinton in November. Sixty-seven percent of Sanders supporters say they will vote for Clinton, 4 percent say they will vote for Trump, while 24 percent say they will vote for neither and 5 percent say they don’t know. By comparison, 88 percent of Clinton supporters say they would vote for Sanders over Trump, who gets 5 percent of such supporters, with 7 percent saying they would support neither and 1 percent saying they don’t know.

Both parties face an unusually high percentage of their partisans who say they will vote for neither candidate. Among registered voters who describe themselves as Republicans or independents who lean Republican, 18 percent say they will vote for neither Trump nor Clinton, and an additional 5 percent say they don’t know how they will vote. Among Democrats and independents leaning Democrat, 13 percent say they will vote for neither candidate and 4 percent say they don’t know. For comparison, in June 2012, just 3 percent of Republicans and 2 percent of Democrats said they would not support either nominee.

Among Republicans and independent leaners, 12 percent say their party is currently united, 41 percent say it is divided now but will unite by November and 45 percent say the party will still be divided in November. Among Democrats and independent leaners, 18 percent say the party is united now, 53 percent say it is divided now but will unite by November and 26 percent believe the party will remain divided. Among Republicans who think their party will remain divided, Trump gets 63 percent of the vote. Among Democrats who think their party will still be divided in November, Clinton gets 58 percent support.

Asked about House Speaker Paul Ryan’s endorsement of Trump, 38 percent of all respondents say it was the right decision while 54 percent say it was a mistake. Among Republicans and independent leaners, however, 69 percent say the endorsement was the right decision and 23 percent say it was a mistake.

Images of presidential candidates
Trump and Clinton are both viewed negatively by a majority of voters. Among registered voters, 64 percent have an unfavorable view of Trump while 26 percent have a favorable view. Clinton is seen unfavorably by 58 percent and favorably by 37 percent. Within their parties, both candidates are seen more positively, with 52 percent of Republicans holding a favorable view of Trump and 35 percent unfavorable. Among Democrats, 67 percent have a favorable view of Clinton while 27 percent view her unfavorably.

Sanders has the most favorable image of the candidates, with an overall 53 percent favorable and 36 percent unfavorable rating. Among Democrats, he is seen favorably by 81 percent and unfavorably by 10 percent.

Voters were asked how comfortable they would be with the idea of each candidate as president. For Clinton, 38 percent say they would be very or somewhat comfortable while 61 percent said very or somewhat uncomfortable, including 42 percent saying very uncomfortable. For Trump 28 percent say very or somewhat comfortable with 72 percent saying very or somewhat uncomfortable, including 55 percent saying very uncomfortable. Fifty-three percent say they would be very or somewhat comfortable with Sanders while 44 percent say very or somewhat uncomfortable, including 29 percent very uncomfortable.

Traits of the presumptive nominees
Respondents were asked whether each of four traits described Clinton and Trump. Clinton is described as “someone who is honest” by 28 percent while Trump is seen as honest by 32 percent.

Forty-two percent say Clinton is someone who “cares about people like me” while 27 percent say this describes Trump.

Forty-eight percent say Clinton is someone who “could handle a national crisis well” while 31 percent say this is true of Trump.

Asked if each candidate “has the qualifications to be president,” 56 percent say this is true of Clinton while 30 percent say it is true of Trump.

Respondents were asked if the FBI investigation of Clinton’s use of a private email server during her time as Secretary of State was something that bothers them about Clinton. Sixty-one percent say this bothers them while 38 percent say it does not.

Sixty-three percent say they are bothered by pending lawsuits against Trump for his Trump University real estate seminars while 34 percent say this does not bother them.

Thirty-five percent of respondents say they are bothered by both of these matters while 10 percent are bothered by neither. Twenty-seven percent are bothered by the Trump University issue but not by the Clinton email issue, while 24 percent are bothered by the emails but not by Trump University.

U.S. Senate candidates
In Wisconsin’s race for U.S. Senate, Feingold is viewed favorably by 40 percent of registered voters and unfavorably by 33 percent. Another 26 percent say they haven’t heard enough or don’t know how they feel about him. In March, Feingold’s ratings were 41 percent favorable, 35 percent unfavorable and 25 percent not able to rate him.

Johnson is seen favorably by 33 percent of registered voters and unfavorably by 31 percent, with 35 percent saying they have not heard enough or don’t know how they feel. In March, Johnson’s ratings were 32 percent favorable and 31 percent unfavorable, with another 36 percent unable to rate him.

Views on issues
The parties are sharply divided on several issues surveyed in this month’s poll.

Sixty percent of registered voters favor an eventual path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants currently in the U.S., while 18 percent prefer a permanent guest worker status and 17 percent say these immigrants should be required to leave the country. Among Republicans, 44 percent favor a path to citizenship, 24 percent prefer a guest status and 26 percent would require undocumented immigrants to leave. Among Democrats, 75 percent favor eventual citizenship, 14 percent prefer a guest worker option and 8 percent would favor removal from the country.

Fifty-four percent of respondents favor an increase in the minimum wage while 42 percent think it should not be raised. Among Republicans, 24 percent support a hike in the minimum wage while 73 percent oppose an increase, while 79 percent of Democrats support and 17 percent oppose an increase.

Support for allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally stands at 64 percent while 28 percent are opposed. Among Republicans, 43 percent favor while 48 percent oppose same-sex marriage. Among Democrats, 84 percent are in favor while 11 percent are opposed.

Sixty-three percent of registered voters say they would favor increasing taxes on wealthy Americans and large corporations in order to reduce income inequality, while 33 percent are opposed to this. Among Republicans, 33 percent favor such a tax increase to reduce inequality while 63 percent oppose it. Fully 90 percent of Democrats favor reducing inequality by increasing taxes on the wealthy, while just 8 percent are opposed.

However, when asked a slightly different question, opinion shifts substantially. Asked if “it is the responsibility of the government to reduce the differences in income,” 40 percent say they agree while 55 percent disagree. Eighteen percent of Republicans say this is government’s responsibility while 81 percent say it is not. Among Democrats, 60 percent say this is government’s role, while 33 percent say it is not.

The subject of free trade is one issue where partisan views appear to be shifting from traditional party positions. Forty-one percent say free trade agreements have in general been a good thing for the United States, while 44 percent say they have been a bad thing. Republicans now take a more negative view of free trade than do Democrats. Thirty-six percent of Republicans say trade agreements have been a good thing while 52 percent say they have been bad for the U.S. Among Democrats, 46 percent say trade agreements have been good for the U.S. while 37 percent say they have been bad.

More voters see trade agreements as costing the United States jobs. Fifty-three percent say trade agreements have cost the U.S. jobs, while 22 percent say they make no difference and 11 percent say trade leads to more job creation. Among Republicans, 58 percent say trade costs jobs, 20 percent say it has no effect and 13 percent say trade creates jobs. Of Democrats, 49 percent say trade costs jobs, 24 percent see no impact and 10 percent say trade increases jobs.

State of the state
Forty-six percent of registered voters say Wisconsin is headed in the right direction while 50 percent say it has gotten off on the wrong track. When last asked in February, 44 percent said the state was moving in the right direction and 52 percent that it was on the wrong track. Fifty percent or more have said wrong track in each of four polls asking this question since January 2015. In the nine combined polls taken in 2014, 53 percent said the state was headed in the right direction while 42 percent said it was on the wrong track. More than 50 percent in each of those nine 2014 polls said Wisconsin was going in the right direction.

Thirty-seven percent say the state budget is in worse shape than a few years ago, 31 percent say it is in better shape and 25 percent say it is about the same. Combining five polls taken in 2015 and 2016, 38 percent say the budget is in worse shape, 32 percent say better shape and 24 percent about the same. Combining eight polls that asked the question in 2014 shows 44 percent thought the budget was in better shape and just 25 percent said it was worse, with 25 percent saying about the same.

Twenty-nine percent of respondents think the economy got worse over the past year while 25 percent say it got better and 44 percent say it has remained about the same. This is little changed from March, when 28 percent said the economy had worsened, 25 percent saw improvement and 45 percent saw no change.

Looking ahead to the next 12 months, 25 percent expect the economy to improve, 23 percent think it will worsen and 43 percent expect no change. In March, 29 percent expected improvement, 18 percent thought the economy would worsen and 44 percent thought it would not change much.

Approval of how Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is handling his job stands at 39 percent, with disapproval at 57 percent. In March, approval was 43 percent and disapproval was 53 percent.

U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin is viewed favorably by 37 percent of respondents and unfavorably by 33 percent, while 31 percent say they haven’t heard enough or don’t have an opinion. When last measured in August of 2015, Baldwin had a 36 percent favorable and 40 percent unfavorable rating, with 24 percent unable to give an opinion.

Speaker Ryan is viewed favorably by 49 percent of registered voters and unfavorably by 32 percent. Eighteen percent do not have an opinion of him. In March, 48 percent had a favorable opinion, 31 percent unfavorable and 21 percent were unable to say.

President Obama’s job approval stands at 51 percent, with 43 percent disapproval. In March, 50 percent approved and 45 percent disapproved. As in national polling, Obama’s job approval has moved slightly upward since 2014. With all 2014 surveys combined, Obama had a 44 percent approval to 49 percent disapproval rating in the Marquette Law School Poll. In 2015, combined polling put approval at 49 percent with disapproval at 47 percent. In combined 2016 polls, approval is 50 percent and disapproval 45 percent.

About the Marquette Law School Poll
The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 800 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone, June 9-12, 2016. The margin of error is +/- 4.4 percentage points for the full sample. For likely voters, the sample size is 666, with a margin of error of +/-4.9 percentage points.

The partisan makeup of this full registered voter sample, including those who lean to a party, is 41 percent Republican, 49 percent Democratic and 8 percent independent. The long-term estimate over the previous 34 statewide Marquette polls, with 29,740 respondents, is 42 percent Republican and 47 percent Democratic, with 9 percent independent. The partisan makeup of this sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 26 percent Republican, 30 percent Democratic and 41 percent independent, compared to the long-term estimate of 27 percent Republican, 31 percent Democratic and 38 percent independent.