Marquette Law School Poll A Comprehensive Look at the Wisconsin Voter

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll finds U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan leading the field in his home state for the GOP presidential nomination in 2016, with support from 27 percent of Wisconsin Republican voters and independents who lean Republican. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio has the support of 21 percent, while Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is third with 16 percent support. Other potential candidates include New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 11 percent, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul at 7 percent, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 5 percent and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal at 1 percent. Twelve percent said they didn’t know or preferred someone else.

On the Democratic side in Wisconsin, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton is the choice of 62 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, while Vice President Joe Biden is the choice of 13 percent. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren has 5 percent support, followed by New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo at 4 percent, Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick with 2 percent and Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley and Virginia Sen. Mark Warner with 1 percent each.

In an early look at the 2016 general election matchups in the state, Clinton leads all potential nominees, with the closest contest between Clinton (48%) and Ryan (44%). Clinton leads Christie 46 to 40 percent, and she is ahead of Walker 50 to 42 percent. Her lead expands against Paul, 51 to 37 percent, and against Rubio, 51 to 35 percent.

Walker’s job as governor
Gov. Scott Walker’s job approval stands at 51 percent while disapproval is 45 percent. In March, Walker’s approval was 50 percent with 44 percent disapproval. Voters have begun to be a bit more optimistic about the economy, with 39 percent thinking that it will get better over the next year, 20 percent that it will get worse and 37 percent that it will stay about the same. In March, 33 percent expected a better economy, while 26 percent said they thought it would worsen and 38 percent said it would stay the same.

Wisconsin voters are less positive about jobs in the state, with 49 percent saying Wisconsin is lagging behind other states in creating jobs. Just 9 percent said Wisconsin was creating jobs faster than other states, with 35 percent saying Wisconsin was creating jobs at the same rate as other states.

Perceptions of job growth are strongly affected by partisanship. Just 26 percent of Republicans but 47 percent of independents see Wisconsin lagging behind other states in job creation. Fully 70 percent of Democrats say that Wisconsin trails other states.

Perceptions of job growth also affect evaluations of Gov. Walker. Among Republicans who see job creation either leading or keeping pace with other states, Walker’s job approval rating is more than 96 percent. But that falls to 76 percent among Republicans who see the state lagging behind. Among independents who see Wisconsin as keeping pace or doing better, 75 percent approve of Walker’s job performance. But among independents who see the state lagging, approval falls to 38 percent. Among the 30 percent of Democrats who see a more positive jobs picture, 24 percent approve of Walker’s job performance, but among the 70 percent who see the state lagging behind, approval is 6 percent.

Voucher school expansion
Opinion on the role of publicly funded vouchers for private schools remains divided. Thirty-two percent favor expanding the voucher program statewide, while an additional 16 percent support expansion to larger school districts only. Fifteen percent oppose any expansion beyond Milwaukee and Racine, which have voucher programs now, and an additional 29 percent want to end the voucher program entirely. In March, the numbers were similar, with 37 percent favoring statewide expansion and 14 percent supporting expansion in large districts only, while 14 percent opposed expansion and 28 percent preferred ending the voucher program.

Support for increased funding for public schools remains high with 67 percent favoring an increase of 1.5 percent or more for public school operations. Twenty-two percent would hold spending constant, while 7 percent would prefer a reduction in spending on public schools. In March, 72 percent favored an increase of some level while 25 percent supported a freeze or a cut in state support.

The public remains divided on how to pay for desired increases in support for public schools. Asked which was more important to them, 49 percent said reducing property taxes while 46 percent said increasing spending on public schools. Opinion was about the same among parents of school-age children, with 48 percent saying property tax reduction was more important and 50 percent saying increasing spending on schools was more important. Among voters without school-age children, 49 percent said tax reduction was more important while 45 percent said increased spending was more important.

Budget items
The public remains skeptical of increased borrowing for highway projects. Asked if they were willing to see the state borrow money to pay for highway projects, 24 percent were willing and 72 percent unwilling. Voters, however, were also unwilling to see increases in gas taxes and vehicle registration fees as a means of paying for highway work, with 27 percent willing and 71 percent unwilling. Delaying planned projects as a means of saving money was supported by 52 percent and opposed by 44 percent. Those results are virtually identical to the same questions in the March poll. Asked specifically in a subsequent question if they would support borrowing $994 million for road construction, 23 percent supported the proposed bonding while 73 percent opposed it.

Fifty-five percent said they favored a proposed $330 million dollar tax cut with 36 percent opposed.

UW funding
In the wake of controversy over the level of reserve funds held across the University of Wisconsin system, support is strong for a proposed two-year tuition freeze, with 76 percent in favor and 21 percent opposed. However, views on cutting state support for the UW system are divided. Forty-four percent support reducing the proposed $181 million in additional state support for the UW system, but slightly more, 50 percent, favor maintaining that level of additional support.

Background checks for gun sales
Following the U.S. Senate vote against a bill expanding background checks on gun sales, 72 percent say they support background checks on private sales of guns and at gun shows, while 26 percent oppose such background checks. In March, before the Senate vote, 81 percent supported and 18 percent opposed these background checks. As in the March poll, majorities of both gun owners (67 percent) and non-owners (78 percent) favored background checks. Forty-four percent of respondents said they own a gun.

In light of the debate in the Senate, respondents were asked if they approved or disapproved of the positions taken by Sen. Ron Johnson and Sen. Tammy Baldwin. Thirty-two percent said they approved of Johnson’s opposition to background checks while 57 percent said they disapproved of his position. Ten percent said the background check issue wasn’t important to them either way. Sixty-eight percent said they approved of Baldwin’s support for background checks, with 23 percent disapproving and 8 percent saying the issue wasn’t important to them.

About the Marquette Law School Poll
The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive independent statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. In 2012 the poll provided highly accurate estimates of election outcomes, in addition to gauging public opinion on a variety of major policy questions.

Last week, Marquette University announced that Charles Franklin will join Marquette Law School as a full-time faculty member Aug. 1, continuing in his role as poll director and becoming a professor of law and public policy. The move allows Franklin to use the Marquette Law School Poll to explore additional public policy issues and track upcoming political races of interest to voters. Franklin is leaving the University of Wisconsin-Madison, where he has been a professor of political science since 1992. He was a visiting professor at Marquette in 2012.

The results of today’s poll were discussed at a session of “On the Issues with Mike Gousha” at Marquette Law School. A video of today’s session can be viewed at the following website, which also contains archived video of past guests.

The poll interviewed 717 registered Wisconsin voters by both landline and cell phone May 6-9, 2013. The margin of error is +/- 3.7 percentage points for the full sample. For the Republican presidential nomination item, the sample size is 302 with a margin of error of +/-5.8 percentage points. The Democratic presidential nomination item sample size is 333 with a margin of error of +/-5.5 percentage points. The entire questionnaire, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at http://law.marquette.edu/poll.

MILWAUKEE – A statewide Marquette Law School Poll conducted March 11-14 finds that voters view charter schools as enabling more choice in education options but are doubtful that students learn more in charter schools than in public schools. Seventy-one percent said charter schools offer more choice, while 18 percent disagreed. Thirty-four percent think students learn more in charter schools, but 51 percent disagree. The poll finds that voters have a mix of views about charter schools, reflecting varied evaluations of them as education alternatives.

Charter schools are publicly funded, independently operated schools that are allowed more flexibility over instruction and subject matter than traditional public schools. The poll also touched upon views of vouchers, which support students attending private and religious schools.

A large majority, 72 percent, think charter schools provide flexibility to meet student needs that may not be met in traditional public schools, while 16 percent disagree. Voters doubt that charter schools skim the best students: 31 percent think they do, but 58 percent disagree. Opinion is more evenly divided on whether charters take needed money away from traditional public schools: 40 percent think they do, while 48 percent think they do not drain money from traditional schools. Forty-six percent think competition with charter schools makes public schools better, but 42 percent disagree.

Voters are concerned that the public pays for charter schools but has little control over school quality, with 47 percent agreeing and 38 percent disagreeing.

Charter schools are viewed favorably by 42 percent of voters statewide, while 16 percent have an unfavorable view of them. However, 42 percent say they don’t know enough about charter schools to offer an opinion. That is a higher favorability than toward voucher schools, which are seen favorably by 27 percent and unfavorably by 24 percent. An even larger segment, 49 percent, said they didn’t know enough to express an opinion about voucher schools. Public schools, in contrast, were viewed favorably by 72 percent of the public with 18 percent having unfavorable views and 10 percent unable to say. Likewise, 24 percent said they were very satisfied with the public schools in their community and 57 percent said they were satisfied. Eleven percent were dissatisfied and 2 percent very dissatisfied

Looking to the future of charter schools, the public is evenly balanced, with 24 percent saying they would like more charter schools and 22 percent that they want fewer or no charter schools. The largest group, 47 percent, think we should maintain the current number of charter schools.

The poll of both landline and cell phone users was conducted March 11-14, 2013. Results are based on a sample of 1060 registered voters and have a margin of error of +/-3.1 percent. An oversample of 360 respondents from the city of Milwaukee was included to allow more detailed analysis of results in the city. All results have been weighted to properly reflect the statewide population. Additional information about the other topics covered in this poll is available at http://law.marquette.edu/poll.

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive independent statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. In 2012 the poll provided highly accurate estimates of election outcomes, in addition to gauging public opinion on a variety of major policy questions. The Law School has announced that it will continue the poll during 2013. Charles Franklin, professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin–Madison and formerly a visiting professor of law and public policy at Marquette Law School, directs the poll.

Transportation funding, residency, the Milwaukee County board and approval of elected officials also included in first poll of 2013

Milwaukee, Wis. – A new Marquette Law School Poll, the first of 2013, finds a large majority of Wisconsin registered voters in favor of background checks for buyers at private gun sales and at gun shows, with 81 percent supporting background checks and 18 percent opposed.

The public was more divided on a possible ban on assault-style weapons with 54 percent supporting a ban and 43 percent opposed. Among gun owners, 46 percent support a ban while 52 percent oppose a ban. Among households without a gun, 64 percent support a ban while 32 percent oppose banning assault-style weapons.

The statewide poll of both landline and cell phone users, covering a number of topics, was conducted March 11-14, 2013. Results are based on a sample of 1060 registered voters and have a margin of error of +/-3.1 percent. An oversample from the city of Milwaukee was included to allow more detailed analysis of respondents in the city. All results have been weighted to properly reflect the statewide population.

Demographics of gun issues

In terms of regions within Wisconsin on these two issues: The support for expanding background checks included the more rural areas of the state, with 74 percent in favor and 21 percent opposed in the southwestern and northern areas of the state, outside the Milwaukee, Madison and Green Bay media markets. Opposition to an assault-style weapons ban was strongest in the more rural region of the state, with 58 percent opposed to a ban and 41 percent supportive. The Green Bay media market split with 50 percent opposed and 49 percent in favor of a ban, while the Madison and Milwaukee areas gave 63 percent and 60 percent support respectively, with 32 percent and 36 percent opposed.

In terms of breakdown among men and women on these issues: Majorities of both men and women supported expanded background checks, with 77 percent of men and 84 percent of women in favor, while 21 percent and 14 percent respectively were opposed. The contrast was greater on banning assault-style weapons, with 66 percent of women favoring a ban while only 41 percent of men were in favor; the numbers opposed to banning assault-style weapons were 29 percent of women and 58 percent of men.

Both gun owners and non-gun owners supported expanding background checks, with 82 percent of owners and 81 percent of non-owners favoring background checks. Forty-three percent of respondents said they had a firearm in their home while 51 percent said they did not. Six percent didn’t say if they had a firearm or not.

Views about public education split

Opinions about public schools and the state education budget show a wide range of views. Respondents have a very favorable view of public schools, with 72 percent favorable and 18 percent unfavorable, and of public school teachers, 76 percent favorable and 14 percent unfavorable. Parents with children under 18 in the household tend to hold slightly more favorable views of public schools than people without children in the home. Seventy-seven percent of such parents rate public schools favorably versus 19 percent unfavorably, while those without children under 18 give a 69 percent favorable and 18 percent unfavorable rating. Public school teachers get similar favorable ratings among parents (77 percent) and non-parents (75 percent) alike.

Voucher schools divide public opinion; many undecided

Views on voucher schools are more evenly divided with 27 percent favorable to 24 percent unfavorable, but with the largest group, 49 percent, saying they either haven’t heard enough to have an opinion or don’t know what they think of voucher schools. In the city of Milwaukee, where voucher schools have been in use since 1990, voucher schools are seen favorably by 34 percent of respondents and negatively by 21 percent, with 45 percent saying they don’t know enough to have an opinion. In other regions of the state, favorable-unfavorable splits are 21-35 percent in the Madison media market, 23-23 percent in Green Bay, and 19-25 percent in the southwestern and northern regions of the state. Favorable views of voucher schools are strongest in the Milwaukee media market outside the city, where 36 percent have a favorable view and 19 percent an unfavorable view. In all regions, over 40 percent say they don’t know enough about voucher schools to express an opinion.

Voucher schools are also given similar ratings among parents and non-parents, with 29 percent of parents and 26 percent of non-parents giving a favorable rating, while 24 percent of both parents and non-parents view voucher schools unfavorably. Both groups have large percentages who are unfamiliar with voucher schools, 47 percent among parents and 49 percent among non-parents.

Expansion of voucher schools splits voters

Expansion of voucher schools beyond the Milwaukee and Racine areas gets a divided reception. Thirty-seven percent support expanding the voucher school program to the entire state, while 14 percent support expanding vouchers only to larger school districts with some low-performing schools. Fourteen percent prefer no expansion while 28 percent would like to see the voucher program ended. Seven percent offered no opinion. Support for expansion either statewide or in larger districts was strongest, at 56 percent, in the city of Milwaukee, 54 percent in the rest of the Milwaukee area, 51 percent in the Madison media market, 49 percent in the Green Bay market and 45 percent in the southwestern and northern regions of the state.

Public school satisfaction generally high

A large majority of voters, 81 percent, are either very satisfied or satisfied with the public schools in their community, with 14 percent either dissatisfied or very dissatisfied. Among parents with children in the household 84 percent say they are satisfied or very satisfied, while 13 percent are dissatisfied or very dissatisfied. Among those without children at home, 79 percent are satisfied or very satisfied, with 14 percent dissatisfied or very dissatisfied. Opinion in the city of Milwaukee is less positive than statewide, with 50 percent satisfied or very satisfied and 39 percent dissatisfied or very dissatisfied. No other region of the state has more than 15 percent expressing some degree of dissatisfaction with public schools in the community.

School funding questions divide voters

There is general support for increases in spending on public schools, though reluctance to see property taxes increase for this purpose. Eight percent would like to see spending on public schools reduced, while 17 percent would keep spending at the current level. Fourteen percent favor an increase of one and a half percent, while 41 percent think public school spending should increase with the rate of inflation. Sixteen percent would like school spending to increase by more than the inflation rate.

When it comes to using property taxes to pay for schools, however, the public is split, with 49 percent saying it is more important to reduce property taxes than to increase public school funding, while 46 percent say they would prefer more spending on schools than lower property taxes. Parents with children at home prefer more school spending to reducing property taxes by a 53 to 45 percent margin, while those without children at home prefer reducing property taxes to increased school spending by a 52 to 42 percent margin.

Older people are more reluctant to increase spending, though majorities at all ages would prefer some spending increases to either no increase or further cuts. Eighty-one percent of those under 45 would like to see some level of increased school funding, while 67 percent of those 45 and older would support spending increases. Nineteen percent of those under 45 would prefer a freeze or a cut in public school spending, while 28 percent of those 45 and older would prefer a freeze or cut. Age differences are somewhat sharper when it comes to property taxes. Forty percent of those under 45 prefer reducing property taxes to increasing school spending, while 57 percent of those 45 and older prefer reductions in property taxes to increased school spending.

Funding transportation

Wisconsin voters are, on balance, willing to pay for highway projects through tolls by a 53 percent to 44 percent margin. In every region of the state except the Madison media market, more than half of respondents said they would be willing to accept tolls. Support was highest, at 59 percent, in the city of Milwaukee. The more rural southwestern and northern parts of the state also showed 58 percent supporting tolls. Support was at 55 percent in the Green Bay area and at 51 percent in the Milwaukee area outside the city. In the Madison area 46 percent said they were willing to use tolls for highway funding, while 48 percent opposed using tolls.

Other ways of funding transportation were more strongly opposed. Just 28 percent were willing to accept higher gas taxes or vehicle registration fees to fund highway projects, and only 24 percent were willing to see the state borrow money to pay for the projects. Taking money from other programs to pay for highways was supported by 57 percent. Fifty-one percent were willing to cut spending on highways even if it delays planned projects.

Views on residency requirements, the Milwaukee County Board also split

Over 100 cities and towns in Wisconsin have residency requirements for at least some municipal employees. Fifty-three percent of respondents favor eliminating a residency requirement, while 42 percent believe employees should be required to live where they work. Residents of the city of Milwaukee favored retaining the residency requirement, 49 percent to 48 percent for eliminating it, while in the other counties of the metropolitan Milwaukee area 68 percent favored eliminating the residency requirement while 28 percent supported it. Support for residency requirements was strongest in the southwestern and northern regions of the state, where 52 percent supported residency rules and 45 percent opposed them.

A proposal to change the Milwaukee County Board from full-time to part-time was opposed by city residents, with 54 percent preferring full-time and 37 percent favoring a part-time board. In the rest of Milwaukee County, opinion was reversed, with 61 percent favoring a part-time board and 30 percent supporting a full-time one.

Views of Political Figures

President Barack Obama’s job approval stands at 48 percent, with 45 percent disapproval. In late October, just before the presidential election, his approval was 51 percent with 44 percent disapproval. Fifty percent approve of the job Governor Scott Walker is doing while 44 percent disapprove. In October his approval was 49 percent with disapproval at 45 percent.

Wisconsin’s U.S. senators are viewed more favorably than unfavorably, but a substantial number of voters say they don’t know the senators well enough to have an opinion. Senator Ron Johnson receives a favorable rating from 30 percent and an unfavorable rating from 25 percent, but 44 percent say they can’t give an opinion of him. Newly-elected Senator Tammy Baldwin is viewed favorably by 39 percent and unfavorably by 36 percent, with 25 percent unable to rate her.

Congressman and former vice-presidential candidate Paul Ryan is viewed favorably by 45 percent, while 37 percent have an unfavorable view of him and 18 percent are unable to give a rating. Congressman Ron Kind is far less well-known statewide, with 74 percent unable to give a rating, while 16 percent give a favorable and 9 percent give an unfavorable opinion of him.

About the Marquette Law School Poll
The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive independent statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. In 2012 the poll provided highly accurate estimates of election outcomes, in addition to gauging public opinion on a variety of major policy questions.

“Marquette Law School will continue the poll during 2013,” said Dean Joseph D. Kearney. “Our effort to provide a balanced and detailed understanding of public opinion in 2012 was a resounding success. The Marquette Law School Poll is part of our broader public policy initiative, led by Mike Gousha, distinguished fellow in law and public policy, and we are grateful that our collaboration continues with Charles Franklin, professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin–Madison and director of the Marquette Law School Poll.”

The results of today’s poll were discussed at a session of “On the Issues with Mike Gousha” at Marquette Law School. A video of today’s session can be viewed at law.marquette.edu.

The poll interviewed 1060 registered Wisconsin voters by both landline and cell phone March 11-14, 2013. The margin of error is +/- 3.1 percentage points for the full sample. An oversample of 360 respondents from the city of Milwaukee was included to allow more detailed analysis of respondents in the city. All results have been weighted to properly reflect the statewide population. The entire questionnaire, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at http://law.marquette.edu/poll.

 

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