Here is a simple guide to the county votes for president and Senate in Wisconsin on November 5, 2024.
Donald Trump won 59 Wisconsin counties while Kamala Harris won 13.
Where do the votes come from? The Democratic net vote comes with huge margins in Dane and Milwaukee counties, followed by much smaller margins in 11 other counties. The large Republican margins come from Waukesha and Washington. The many smaller Republican leaning counties collectively provide Republican strength, offsetting the fewer counties with Democratic majorities, despite the large margins in Dane and Milwaukee.
Harris improved over Biden’s 2020 vote percentage margin in only four counties, Washington, Ozaukee, Waukesha and Door. She did a bit worse than Biden in Eau Claire, Dane and (especially) La Crosse, usually Democratic strong holds.
County vote margin in the Senate
Baldwin won 14 counties, including Sauk which Trump won, while Hovde won 58.
Senate margin minus presidential margin
While Baldwin only narrowly out-performed Harris, winning by .9 percentage points while Harris lost by .9 percentage points, Baldwin outperformed the presidential ticket in all but four counties: Menominee, Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington.
A look at overall opinion shows that the public is not keen on either Biden or Trump running for president again in 2024. Of all registered voters interviewed in the November 2022 and January 2023 Marquette Law School Poll National surveys, 34% would like Biden to run and 29% would like Trump to run.
Candidate
Yes
No
Biden
34
66
Trump
29
71
Among only registered voters who consider themselves Democrats or independents who lean Democrat, 49% would like Biden to run. Among registered voters who are Republican or independent but lean Republican, 53% would like Trump to run.
Table 2: Like Biden or Trump to run by party (including leaners)
Party, with leaners
Yes
No
Republican/Lean Republican
19
81
Independent
24
76
Democrat/Lean Democrat
49
51
Party, with leaners
Yes
No
Republican/Lean Republican
53
47
Independent
34
66
Democrat/Lean Democrat
6
94
This even split in both parties comes despite generally favorable views of both Biden and Trump among registered voters of their party. Biden is viewed favorably by 82% of registered Democrats and Trump is viewed favorably by 68% of registered Republicans.
Table 3: Favorability ratings of Biden and Trump by party (including leaners)
Party, with leaners
Favorable opinion
Unfavorable opinion
Haven’t heard enough
Republican/Lean Republican
6
93
1
Independent
35
54
11
Democrat/Lean Democrat
82
16
2
Party, with leaners
Favorable opinion
Unfavorable opinion
Haven’t heard enough
Republican/Lean Republican
68
30
2
Independent
27
66
6
Democrat/Lean Democrat
3
96
1
While Democrats are more favorable to Biden than Republicans are to Trump, there is reluctance among Democrats for a Biden run in 2024 even among those with a favorable opinion of him, 57% of whom wish him to run. Among Republicans who are favorable to Trump there is higher support for a run, 72%.
Table 4: Like to run by favorablity by party (including leaners)
Favorability
Yes
No
Favorable opinion
57
43
Unfavorable opinion
11
89
Favorability
Yes
No
Favorable opinion
72
28
Unfavorable opinion
10
90
Strength of partisanship also plays a role with Democrats more supportive of a Biden candidacy than are independents who lean Democrat, and likewise for Trump among Republicans compared to independents who lean Republican.
Table 5: Like Biden and Trump to run in 2024 by party identification, among registered voters
Party ID
Yes
No
Republican
18
82
Lean Republican
21
79
Independent
24
76
Lean Democrat
32
68
Democrat
56
44
Party ID
Yes
No
Republican
57
43
Lean Republican
41
59
Independent
34
66
Lean Democrat
8
92
Democrat
6
94
Among all registered voters, 42% say they would like neither Biden nor Trump to run in 2024, 28% would like Biden but not Trump to run and 24% would like Trump but not Biden. And only 5% would like to see a rerun of 2024.
Like Biden to run
Yes
No
Yes
5
28
No
24
42
About the Marquette Law School Poll
The Marquette Law School poll interviewed 1716 registered voters nationwide November 15-22, 2022 and January 9-20, 2023. The combined sample has a margin of error of +/-2.8 percentage points. The sample of 775 Democrats and independents who lean Democrat has a margin of error of +/-4.1 percentage points. The sample of 750 Republicans and independents who lean Republcian has a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points.
Nate Cohn has a look at widely varying polls on Trump 2024, including my @MULawPoll. Worth a read.
It is hard to get apples-to-apples comparisons. Different question (long list of candidates or DeSantis-Trump head-to-head), RVs or likely primary voters, Reps or Reps+Lean.
I’d also stress value of comparative favorability among Reps.
And comparison of ONE poll over time with same methodology each time removes noise due to multiple pollsters w varying methodology. This emphasizes trend change w most comparable data available
Another trend for want Trump to run, and shows the difference between those who are more partisan Republicans and those independents who lean Rep. (How these are included or not also affects the cross-pollster comparison in Nate’s article.)
Here is a comparison of want Trump and want DeSantis to run by party ID for the latest, January 2023 @MULawPoll national poll (all these tweets are based on our national polls, not our Wisconsin only polls.)
I think the most revealing results we have in @MULawPoll is DeSantis is very appealing to PRO-TRUMP Republicans. His fav rating is strong with those Reps also fav to Trump & those Reps who want Trump to run. His threat to Trump is that he’s popular inside Trump’s house.
It is really important to stress we are watching a dynamic process as it unfolds, NOT predicting final outcomes. Trump is ramping up criticism of DeSantis. Does that change things in upcoming polls? When (if) DeSantis enters the race is another test.
