Nate Cohn has a look at widely varying polls on Trump 2024, including my @MULawPoll. Worth a read.

It is hard to get apples-to-apples comparisons. Different question (long list of candidates or DeSantis-Trump head-to-head), RVs or likely primary voters, Reps or Reps+Lean.

I’d also stress value of comparative favorability among Reps.

And comparison of ONE poll over time with same methodology each time removes noise due to multiple pollsters w varying methodology. This emphasizes trend change w most comparable data available

Favs in @MULawPoll national surveys:

Another trend for want Trump to run, and shows the difference between those who are more partisan Republicans and those independents who lean Rep. (How these are included or not also affects the cross-pollster comparison in Nate’s article.)

Here is a comparison of want Trump and want DeSantis to run by party ID for the latest, January 2023 @MULawPoll national poll (all these tweets are based on our national polls, not our Wisconsin only polls.)

I think the most revealing results we have in @MULawPoll is DeSantis is very appealing to PRO-TRUMP Republicans. His fav rating is strong with those Reps also fav to Trump & those Reps who want Trump to run. His threat to Trump is that he’s popular inside Trump’s house.

It is really important to stress we are watching a dynamic process as it unfolds, NOT predicting final outcomes. Trump is ramping up criticism of DeSantis. Does that change things in upcoming polls? When (if) DeSantis enters the race is another test.

There’s a long way to go.

Here is a link to Nate’s article in NYTimes today. By all means give it a read.

Summary

Let’s begin with some general context: Nationwide, 66% of those with an opinion favor a Supreme Court ruling that the Second Amendment includes a right to possess a gun outside the home. When it is presented as a matter of state policy choice (law), 62% favor allowing concealed carry of handguns with a permit or license required. So public opinion substantially favors allowing “licensed concealed carry” of handguns.

In contrast, there is substantial majority opposition to laws allowing concealed carry without a licensing requirement. Concealed carry without a license requirement is supported nationwide by 19% and opposed by 81%.

In fact, even in the 25 states with “permitless concealed carry” laws, a minority of 28% of adults favor such laws, while 72% are opposed to them, based on a May 2022 Marquette Law School Poll national survey conducted last month (before the school shooting in Uvalde, Texas). And state surveys, by other polling entities, in Texas and Tennessee (states with permitless concealed carry laws) found 34% and 39% favored these laws, respectively, with 59% opposed in both states.

State gun laws

In the following analysis, state gun laws are grouped into four categories.

• Twenty-five states have adopted laws allowing “permitless” concealed carry, requiring no license or permit to have a concealed weapon. (This includes states that have adopted such a law that will go into effect by Jan. 1, 2023.)
• Ten states have “shall issue” laws, which give no discretion over issuing a license or permit to an applicant meeting the criteria specified by law.
• Seven states have “shall issue” laws, which allow some discretion over issuing a license or permit if the applicant is judged to raise some public safety concerns.
• Eight states and the District of Columbia have “may issue” laws, which give authorities greater latitude in determining when to issue a license or permit.