Popular Supreme Court Decisions, Inflation Pessimism, and other Themes from the July Marquette Law School Poll

Post author:John Johnson
Post published:July 25, 2025
Post category:Marquette Law School Poll

Plus 1k adults share their biggest concerns about the country

The latest national survey from the Marquette Law School Poll is out now. Here are just a few of the interesting results we found. For more, read our press release about national politics here, our Supreme Court press release, or our complete topline and crosstab tables. At the last link you’ll also find our new Trend Toplines file, which includes tables and graphs showing how the responses to each question have changed over time.

The Supreme Court’s decisions were popular this term.

Majorities of adults favored the Supreme Court’s rulings in all 7 of the major cases we asked about from the past term.

Uphold TX law requiring proof of age to access adult websites: 75% favor
Require due process for those subject to deportation: 73% favor
Uphold TN ban on transgender treatment for minors: 71% favor
Allow parents to opt school children out of lessons: 71% favor
Uphold law requiring TikTok sale: 60% favor
Require religious tax exemption for Catholic Charities: 59%
Limit district court use of nationwide injunctions: 56% favor

Overall, 49% approved of the Court’s job performance and 51% disapproved. This is a four-point drop in those approving, driven by a large (13-point) drop-off among Democrats.

Back in the summer of 2021, the parties scarcely differed in their views of the court. This changed rapidly, particularly following the Dobbs decision overturning Roe v Wade. In the latest poll, 83% of Republicans approve of the Supreme Court’s job vs 20% of Democrats and 45% of independents.[i]

Trump’s overall job approval is stable but varies a lot by topic.

Approval of Trump’s job performance ranges from +8 on border security to -30 on tariffs, inflation, and the cost of living.

Pessimism about inflation

Opposition to immigration and frustration with high inflation helped elect Trump in 2024, and initially Trump enjoyed support for his policies on both these issues.

In December 2024, shortly after winning the election, 81% of Trump voters anticipated that his policies would decrease inflation. This fell to 75% in February, 67% in March, 59% in May, and 58% in July.

Among all adults in July, just 28% believe Trump’s policies will decrease inflation and 60% expect an increase. 65% percent predict that “inflation and the cost of living will increase” over the next 12 months, while just 18% expect it to decline.

Support for deportations is waning

Since early 2024, we’ve asked “Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries?” Phrased this way, support for deportations grew after Trump’s election, reaching 68% favoring deportations in March with 32% opposed. In July, support for deportations fell to 57% with 43% opposed.

Views on deportations are highly dependent on how the question is phrased. Throughout this period, we have also asked, “Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries even if they have lived here for a number of years, have jobs and no criminal record?” Put this way, support for deportations has never exceeded 44% and stood at 38% in July 2025.

Most people (55%) think the U.S. is “mostly deporting immigrants who have no criminal records,” while 45% believe mostly immigrants with criminal records are being deported. July is the first time we’ve included this question.

Themes in open-ended responses

Unlike our Wisconsin state polls, all survey respondents complete our national polls online. This allows us to ask open-ended, free-response questions. Since December, we’ve asked, “What do you [like/dislike] about Donald Trump?” In July, we added a new question. “What is your biggest concern about the country these days?”

You can read, search, sort, and filter all 1,005 responses at this link. This is an exercise I find invaluable in understanding what voters (and non-voters) are actually thinking.

Here are a few of my impressions from the free responses:

The balance of open-ended responses has shifted modestly against Trump, tracking his slow decline in overall job approval. In December 2024, 51% named things they both liked and disliked about Trump, while 12% didn’t dislike anything and 35% didn’t like anything. In July, a similar number, 49%, list likes and dislikes, but the those who don’t like anything grew to 40% and those who don’t dislike anything fell to 8%.
If I had to describe the content of the “biggest concern” question in one word it would be “fear” or “anxiety” even more so than “anger,” which was also present in many responses.
Ninety-one people spontaneously mentioned going to war as among their top concerns for the country.
Many answers described social divisions and frustrations with other Americans. Elsewhere in the survey, 56% said that “generally speaking, most people can’t be trusted.” This is the highest level mistrust we have measured in 24 surveys going back to September 2021. Our open-ended explorer tool allows you to filter answers by the respondent’s level of trust in others.
Over 90 people spontaneously mentioned something related to immigration, ICE, or deportations as among their biggest concerns. Of these, 58% were generally supportive of Trump’s policies, 31% were opposed, and the views of 11% were unclear or unclassifiable.
13 people, 11 of them Republicans, spontaneously mentioned Jeffrey Epstein, always in criticism of Donald Trump. Our survey was in the field from July 7-16, with most interviews completed by July 9^th. The Department of Justice published its memo ending the Epstein investigation on July 7^th.

[i] These figures are for unleaned party ID, where independents who lean to a party are still counted as independents. The press release shows figures for leaned party ID. I use the unleaned party ID in this graphic because it has a longer time series.

Wisconsin Governor 2026 Outlook

Post author:Charles Franklin
Post published:July 24, 2025
Post category:Marquette Law School Poll Political Processes & Rhetoric Public

Gov. Tony Evers announced July 24 that he will not seek a third term in 2026.

Evers has been the most consistently popular state politician in Wisconsin since his election in 2018. He has maintained an average approval rating above 50%, with disapproval averaging 41%. He is also better known and better liked than most other office holders in the state.

With Evers out of the race all the candidates in both the Democratic and Republican primaries will begin with very low name recognition and will need substantial campaign resources to introduce themselves to voters statewide.

A majority of registered voters in the June 2025 Marquette Law School poll said they would not like Evers to seek a third term, though over 80% of Democrats wanted him to run.

Should Evers run? (June 2025 MULawPoll)

Would you personally like to see Tony Evers seek a third term as governor in 2026?

Poll dates	Yes	No	Don’t know	Refused	n
6/13-19/25	42	55	2	1	873

Evers retains strong support for a third term with Democratic voters, 83% of whom support a third term bid, but 50% of independents oppose a third term as do a very large majority of Republicans.

Party ID	Yes	No	Don’t know	Refused	n
Republican	7	93	0	0	398
Independent	37	50	9	4	106
Democrat	83	15	1	1	363

Evers job approval history

Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin?

Poll dates	Net	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused	n
1/16-20/19	17	39	22	38	1	800
4/3-7/19	10	47	37	15	0	800
8/25-29/19	20	54	34	10	1	800
10/13-17/19	18	52	34	13	1	799
11/13-17/19	5	47	42	10	1	801
12/3-8/19	12	50	38	11	1	800
1/8-12/20	11	51	40	9	0	800
2/19-23/20	13	51	38	10	1	1000
3/24-29/20	36	65	29	6	1	813
5/3-7/20	26	59	33	7	1	811
6/14-18/20	16	54	38	6	1	805
8/4-9/20	20	57	37	6	0	801
8/30-9/3/20	8	51	43	5	2	802
9/30-10/4/20	10	52	42	5	1	805
10/21-25/20	7	50	43	7	0	806
8/3-8/21	7	50	43	7	0	807
10/26-31/21	-1	45	46	8	1	805
2/22-27/22	9	50	41	8	1	802
4/19-24/22	6	49	43	7	1	805
6/14-20/22	3	48	45	6	1	803
8/10-15/22	2	47	45	8	1	811
9/6-11/22	-3	44	47	8	0	801
10/3-9/22	-2	46	48	5	1	801
10/24-11/1/22	-1	46	47	6	2	802
6/8-13/23	18	57	39	4	0	913
10/26-11/2/23	7	53	46	2	0	908
1/24-31/24	7	51	44	5	0	930
4/3-10/24	8	52	44	3	0	814
6/12-20/24	7	51	44	6	0	871
7/24-8/1/24	7	51	44	5	0	877
8/28-9/5/24	7	51	44	5	0	822
9/18-26/24	2	48	46	5	0	882
10/16-24/24	6	51	45	4	0	834
2/19-26/25	5	49	44	6	0	864
6/13-19/25	2	48	46	5	0	873

Average approval: 50.4% Average disapproval: 41.2%

Number of poll with positive and negative net approval:

Net postive approval: 31 of 35 polls.

Net negative approval: 4 of 35 polls.

Approval by year

Year	Net	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused	n
2019	13	48	35	16	1	4800
2020	16	54	38	7	1	7443
2021	2	47	45	7	1	1612
2022	2	47	45	7	1	5625
2023	13	55	42	3	0	1821
2024	7	51	44	5	0	6030
2025	4	49	45	6	0	1737

Evers favorability

[Tony Evers] Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of <> or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Poll dates	Net	Favorable	Unfavorable	Not heard+DK	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	n
2/25-3/1/18	7	20	13	66	48	18	800
6/13-17/18	5	22	17	61	45	16	800
7/11-15/18	11	25	14	60	46	14	800
8/15-19/18	8	31	23	45	37	9	800
9/12-16/18	9	35	26	39	29	10	800
10/3-7/18	3	38	35	27	22	5	1000
10/24-28/18	0	38	38	24	18	5	1400
1/16-20/19	17	41	24	34	28	6	800
4/3-7/19	13	48	35	17	12	5	800
8/25-29/19	14	49	35	16	11	5	800
10/13-17/19	12	47	35	18	13	5	799
11/13-17/19	2	43	41	15	12	3	801
12/3-8/19	8	45	37	17	12	5	800
1/8-12/20	8	45	37	17	14	3	800
2/19-23/20	3	43	40	16	12	4	1000
3/24-29/20	26	54	28	17	11	6	813
5/3-7/20	14	50	36	13	7	5	811
6/14-18/20	17	54	37	9	7	2	805
8/4-9/20	17	52	35	13	9	4	801
8/30-9/3/20	6	47	41	11	9	2	802
9/30-10/4/20	7	47	40	12	9	3	805
10/21-25/20	4	47	43	10	8	2	806
8/3-8/21	4	46	42	11	8	3	807
10/26-31/21	-3	42	45	12	9	4	805
2/22-27/22	6	47	41	11	7	4	802
4/19-24/22	5	47	42	10	7	3	805
6/14-20/22	2	44	42	14	11	2	803
8/10-15/22	5	46	41	12	6	6	811
9/6-11/22	0	45	45	10	7	3	801
10/3-9/22	-2	44	46	9	6	3	801
10/24-11/1/22	-2	44	46	9	6	3	802
6/8-13/23	13	52	39	9	8	1	913
10/26-11/2/23	8	50	42	8	7	1	908
1/24-31/24	7	52	45	3	3	0	930
4/3-10/24	5	50	45	5	5	0	814
6/12-20/24	8	51	43	6	6	0	871
7/24-8/1/24	9	50	41	9	9	0	877
8/28-9/5/24	6	49	43	8	8	0	822
9/18-26/24	9	51	42	7	6	0	882
10/16-24/24	5	49	44	7	7	0	834
2/19-26/25	0	47	47	7	6	0	864
6/13-19/25	-2	45	47	8	8	0	873

Evers favorability by year

Year	Net	Favorable	Unfavorable	Not heard+DK	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	n
2018	6	31	25	43	33	10	6400
2019	12	46	34	20	15	5	4800
2020	11	49	38	13	10	4	7443
2021	0	44	44	12	8	4	1612
2022	3	46	43	11	7	4	5625
2023	10	51	41	8	7	1	1821
2024	7	50	43	6	6	0	6030
2025	-1	46	47	8	7	0	1737

Building name familiarity

Evers is now far better known than any of the potential Democratic or Republican candidates. His absence from the race levels the playing field with all candidates having to take time to build recognition. While candidates may be well known locally in their city or district, creating statewide name recognition requires extensive campaigning.

In February 2018, Evers was unknown to 66% of registered voters (who said they either hadn’t heard enough or didn’t know if they had a favorable or unfavorable opinion of him.) Even by July 2018 he was still unfamiliar to 60%. This is typical of non-incumbent candidates who must introduce themselves to voters statewide.

For comparison, in February 2022 Rebecca Kleefisch, after serving 8 years as Lt. Governor, was unfamiliar to 50%. In January 2019, following his election as Attorney General, Josh Kaul was not familiar to 77%. In June 2023, U.S. Representative Tom Tiffany was unfamiliar to 75%.

Public Opinion and U.S. Supreme Court cases

Post author:Charles Franklin
Post published:June 18, 2025
Post category:Marquette Law School Poll

Cases of the Oct. 2024 term

The Marquette Law School poll has conducted multiple national polls of opinion on cases before the U.S. Supreme Court in the October 2024 term. This post shows this results for cases that have been decided or are still pending. Additional polling will be conducted in July following the end of the term.

Links to SCOTUSBlog page for each case provide more details of the cases.

Classified documents

A federal judge in Florida has dismissed the case charging Trump with illegally retaining classified documents and obstructing government efforts to recover the documents. The judge ruled that the appointment of the special counsel violated the Constitution. Do you favor or oppose this ruling?

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose	Don’t know
7/24-8/1/24	37	43	19

Party ID	Poll dates	Favor	Oppose	Don’t know
Republican	7/24-8/1/24	66	12	21
Independent	7/24-8/1/24	25	30	45
Democrat	7/24-8/1/24	12	76	12

TikTok Ban

TikTok v. Garland

In January the Supreme Court upheld a law requiring the social media app TikTok, which is owned by a Chinese company, to be sold or banned in the U.S. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
1/27-2/6/25	62	38

Party ID	Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
Republican	1/27-2/6/25	73	27
Independent	1/27-2/6/25	53	47
Democrat	1/27-2/6/25	54	46

Halt Trump criminal sentencing

Trump v. New York

In January the Supreme Court rejected Donald Trump’s request to halt his criminal sentencing in New York where he was convicted in May on 34 felony counts, allowing sentencing to proceed. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
1/27-2/6/25	65	35

Party ID	Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
Republican	1/27-2/6/25	43	57
Independent	1/27-2/6/25	70	30
Democrat	1/27-2/6/25	87	12

Texas porn access

Free Speech Coalition, Inc. v. Paxton

In January the Supreme Court heard arguments concerning a Texas law meant to prevent minors from accessing sexual materials on the internet, through a requirement that adults prove they are 18 or over by submitting government-issued IDs in order to access sexually oriented websites. Do you think the court should uphold this law or strike it down for infringing on the rights of adults?

Poll dates	Uphold the law	Strike it down
1/27-2/6/25	69	31

Party ID	Poll dates	Uphold the law	Strike it down
Republican	1/27-2/6/25	78	22
Independent	1/27-2/6/25	74	26
Democrat	1/27-2/6/25	57	43

Freeze foreign aid payments

Department of State v. AIDS Vaccine Advocacy Coalition

[In March, the Supreme Court rejected President Trump’s request to freeze nearly $2 billion in foreign aid, sending the case back to a lower court for further proceedings.] How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
3/17-27/25	58	42

Party ID	Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
Republican	3/17-27/25	39	61
Independent	3/17-27/25	60	40
Democrat	3/17-27/25	76	24

EPA regulation limits

City and County of San Francisco v. Environmental Protection Agency

[In March, the Supreme Court ruled that the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was entitled to impose specific requirements on permit holders to prevent pollution but not to make the permit holders responsible simply because water quality has fallen below the agency’s standards.] How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
3/17-27/25	48	52

Party ID	Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
Republican	3/17-27/25	59	41
Independent	3/17-27/25	45	55
Democrat	3/17-27/25	38	62

Religious charter school

Oklahoma Statewide Charter School Board v. Drummond

[In April, the Supreme Court will hear arguments in a case asking whether a state that generally funds charter schools as alternatives to traditional public schools may refuse to fund a charter school simply because it is explicitly religious.] How do you think the Court should rule?

Poll dates	The state may refuse to fund the religious charter school	The state is required to fund a religious charter school
3/17-27/25	57	43

Party ID	Poll dates	The state may refuse to fund the religious charter school	The state is required to fund a religious charter school
Republican	3/17-27/25	45	55
Independent	3/17-27/25	60	40
Democrat	3/17-27/25	68	32

Ban transition treatment for minors

United States v. Skrmetti

[In December, the Supreme Court heard arguments challenging a Tennessee law that prohibits medical providers from prescribing puberty-delaying medication or performing gender transition surgery for youth under 18.] How do you think the Court should rule?

Poll dates	Uphold the Tennessee law	Overturn the law
3/17-27/25	72	27
5/5-15/25	70	30

Party ID	Poll dates	Uphold the Tennessee law	Overturn the law
Republican	3/17-27/25	90	10
Republican	5/5-15/25	92	8
Independent	3/17-27/25	79	21
Independent	5/5-15/25	73	27
Democrat	3/17-27/25	52	48
Democrat	5/5-15/25	44	56

Trump administration must facilitate return of Kilmar Abrego Garcia

Noem v. Abrego Garcia

In April, the Supreme Court ruled that federal law requires the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a man erroneously deported to El Salvador. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
5/5-15/25	67	33

Party ID	Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
Republican	5/5-15/25	41	59
Independent	5/5-15/25	65	34
Democrat	5/5-15/25	94	6

Must provide due process before deportation

Trump v. J.G.G.

In April, the Supreme Court said that those the administration is seeking to deport under the Alien Enemies Act must receive notice that they are subject to deportation within a reasonable time and in such a manner as will allow them to actually seek court review before such deportation occurs. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
5/5-15/25	65	35

Party ID	Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
Republican	5/5-15/25	43	57
Independent	5/5-15/25	61	39
Democrat	5/5-15/25	90	10

Parents can opt kids out of LGBTQ readings

Mahmoud v. Taylor

In April, the Supreme Court heard arguments in a case asking whether parents of elementary school students should be able to opt their children out of reading classes concerning stories about LGBTQ+ characters, if those stories conflict with the families’ religious beliefs. How do you think the Court should rule?

Poll dates	Parents should be able to opt out	The schools should set the curriculum for all
5/5-15/25	70	30

Party ID	Poll dates	Parents should be able to opt out	The schools should set the curriculum for all
Republican	5/5-15/25	91	9
Independent	5/5-15/25	69	31
Democrat	5/5-15/25	48	52

Cases not yet polled

Reverse Discrimination

Ames v. Ohio Department of Youth Services

Holding: The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit’s “background circumstances” rule — which requires members of a majority group to satisfy a heightened evidentiary standard to prevail on a Title VII discrimination claim — cannot be squared with either the text of Title VII or the Supreme Court’s precedents.

Judgment: Vacated and remanded, 9-0, in an opinion by Justice Jackson on June 5, 2025. Justice Thomas filed a concurring opinion, in which Justice Gorsuch joined.

Smith & Wesson v Mexico

Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. v. Estados Unidos Mexicanos

Holding: Because Mexico’s complaint does not plausibly allege that the defendant gun manufacturers aided and abetted gun dealers’ unlawful sales of firearms to Mexican traffickers, the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act bars the lawsuit.

Judgment: Reversed, 9-0, in an opinion by Justice Kagan on June 5, 2025. Justices Thomas and Jackson filed concurring opinions.

Police excessive use of force

Barnes v. Felix

Holding: The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit’s moment-of-threat rule — a framework for evaluating police shootings which requires a court to look only to the circumstances existing at the precise time an officer perceived the threat inducing him to shoot — improperly narrows the Fourth Amendment analysis of police use of force.

Judgment: Vacated and Remanded , 9-0, in an opinion by Justice Kagan on May 15, 2025. Justice Kavanaugh filed a concurring opinion, in which Justices Thomas, Alito, and Barrett joined.

Regulation of Flavored Vapes

Food and Drug Administration v. Wages and White Lion Investments

Holding: The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit erred in setting aside as arbitrary and capricious the FDA’s orders denying respondents’ applications for authorization to market new e-cigarette products pursuant to The Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act of 2009; the 5th Circuit also relied on an incorrect standard to reject the FDA’s claim of harmless error regarding the agency’s failure to consider marketing plans submitted by respondents.

Judgment: Vacated and remanded, 9-0, in an opinion by Justice Alito on April 2, 2025. Justice Sotomayor filed a concurring opinion.

Ghost guns

Garland v. VanDerStok

Emergency application for stay is granted on Aug. 8, 2023. Justices Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh would deny the application for stay.

Issue: Whether the Supreme Court should stay the judgment of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas baring the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives from enforcing a 2022 rule regulating “ghost guns” as firearms.

Birthright Citizenship or Universal Injunction

Trump v. CASA

Emergency application for partial stay

Issue: Whether the Supreme Court should stay the district courts’ nationwide preliminary injunctions on the Trump administration’s Jan. 20 executive order ending birthright citizenship except as to the individual plaintiffs and identified members of the organizational plaintiffs or states.

Race and Congressional districting

Louisiana v. Callais

Issue: (1) Whether the majority of the three-judge district court in this case erred in finding that race predominated in the Louisiana legislature”s enactment of S.B. 8; (2) whether the majority erred in finding that S.B. 8 fails strict scrutiny; (3) whether the majority erred in subjecting S.B. 8 to the preconditions specified in Thornburg v. Gingles; and (4) whether this action is non-justiciable.

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