Obama and Baldwin Gain Support, New Poll Results Say

A new round of results from the Marquette Law School Poll points to shifts in public opinion in Wisconsin in favor of Democratic President Barack Obama and Democratic US Senate candidate Tammy Baldwin.

Obama was up 54% to 40% over Republican challenger Mitt Romney among likely voters interviewed from Aug. 16 to 19, according to the poll. Four weeks earlier, the Law School Poll found Obama up by 3 points over Romney, 49% to 46%.

The Democratic bounce in the Senate race was even larger. Four weeks ago, former Gov. Tommy Thompson, the Republican candidate, led Rep. Tammy Baldwin, the Democratic candidate, 50% to 41%. In the new results, it was Baldwin ahead by 50% to 41%.

Charles Franklin, director of the poll and the Law School’s visiting professor of law and public policy, said, “These are both very large moves in four weeks.” Other polls have also showed significant gains for Obama and Baldwin in Wisconsin in recent days.

Franklin said much of the movement in poll results came from shifts in sentiment among independents. But in a session with Mike Gousha, the Law School’s distinguished fellow in law and public policy, Franklin said that more changes in public opinion are likely before the Nov. 6 election.

For full results of the poll, click here. To view the video of Franklin’s conversation with Gousha, click here.

 

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The Constitutional Challenge to Act 10 is Serious

On Friday, Judge Juan Colas issued a ruling that struck down Act 10, the “Budget Repair Bill,” on the grounds that the law violates the Wisconsin and U.S. Constitutions.  In essence, he held that the law differentiates between entities that represent public employees in collective bargaining — imposing conditions on certain bargaining entities but not others – and that the State had failed to advance a sufficient justification for this disparate treatment.  According to Judge Colas, the differential treatment of bargaining entities violated the First Amendment right of the affected unions to association and expression, and it also violated the Equal Protection Clause.  Judge Colas also held that the law violates the Home Rule provisions of the Wisconsin Constitution by dictating rules for Milwaukee that the law did not apply to other municipalities.

The reaction to the ruling from the Walker Administration – that Judge Colas is a “liberal Dane County judge” — was as hollow as it was predictable.  Some supporters of the Governor view the judiciary as an obstacle to their political agenda.  Therefore, judges who do not agree with the Administration’s legal arguments become, in their mind, opponents who must be demonized (like Dane County Circuit Judge Maryann Sumi) or else targeted with frivolous disciplinary complaints.

Clearly, some supporters of the Walker Administration have a difficult time separating the political debate over Act 10 from the separate legal debate over its contents.

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New Poll Results: Presidential Race Tightens, Thompson Leads Baldwin

Marquette Law School Poll results released Wednesday show a two-point shift toward Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, compared to results from two weeks earlier.

President Barack Obama and Vice President Joe Biden lead among likely voters 49% to 46% over Romney and his recently named running mate, Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, in polling conducted Aug. 16 to 19. In early August polling, Obama led Romney, 50% to 45%.

Charles Franklin, visiting professor of law and public policy and director of the poll, said, ‘The two-point shift in Romney’s favor is within the margin of error of the poll but suggests Ryan’s addition to the ticket may have slightly increased Romney’s chances in Wisconsin.”

The new Law School Poll results for the US Senate race in Wisconsin put former Gov. Tommy Thompson, who won the Republican primary on Aug. 14, ahead of Rep. Tammy Baldwin, the Democratic candidate, by 50% to 41%. In the early August polling, Thompson led Baldwin 48% to 43%.

Full results of the poll may be found by clicking here.

Continue ReadingNew Poll Results: Presidential Race Tightens, Thompson Leads Baldwin