The Two Political Half-States of Wisconsin

Gov. Scott Walker’s job performance is drawing strong disapproval—in the city of Milwaukee. Gov. Scott Walker’s job performance is drawing strong approval—in the rest of the Milwaukee media market.

A big thumbs up for Walker across most of the state of Wisconsin. A big thumbs down in Madison.

The two half-states of Wisconsin—one with clear Democratic majorities, one with clear Republican majorities—can be seen in the results of the Marquette Law School Poll released this week. Political contests in either of the half-states alone would be bring few surprises and little drama because they would be one-sided. But combine the two halves into the one Wisconsin we actually have, and you get a polarized, evenly split state that has become a center of passionate partisanship, attracting high levels of national attention.

You can see the two half-Wisconsins in the demographic breakdowns of many of the questions in the new Law School poll. (The results are all on the Law School Poll’s webpage. To go to them, click on “Results & Data” and then on the line referring to “crosstabs.”)

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Marquette Law School Poll: The First Results Are Out

The first results from the Marquette Law School Poll, the largest political polling project in Wisconsin history, were released Wednesday morning, providing a fresh and provocative view of public opinion across the state.

The full poll results can be found here.

At noon today (Jan. 25), Charles Franklin, visiting professor of law and public policy and director of the poll, will discuss the poll results with Mike Gousha, distinguished fellow in law and public policy, in Eckstein Hall. The session is free and open to the public. Video of the session will be posted on the Web page for the poll shortly after the session ends.

A brief look at the results: With the spotlight on the almost-certain recall election for governor, more people said at this point that they would vote for Gov. Scott Walker, the Republican who has been in office for a year, than for any of four possible Democratic challengers. The margins in favor of Walker ranged from five to ten percentage points.

Asked if they approved or disapproved of the way Walker is handling his job as governor, 51% said they approved and 46% said they disapproved.

The poll results also included information on how Wisconsinites rate candidates for the U.S. Senate seat that is open this year, what they think of some of the proposals that have stirred controversy in the state in the last year, and the standing of President Barack Obama and some of the Republican candidates for president. 

The Law School polling project will continue throughout 2012, with fresh rounds of polling generally monthly. All poll results, along with analysis of what the poll shows, links to media coverage of the poll, and announcement of upcoming events, will be posted on the Web page for the poll.

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The Roots of Progressivism Lie in . . . the Republican Party?

Tonight, when President Barack Obama delivers his third State of the Union address, he is widely expected to channel the progressive rhetoric of Theodore Roosevelt. It was Roosevelt’s “New Nationalism” speech in 1910 (quoted in my previous post here) that called for the federal government to play an active role in regulating the economy. When he speaks to the nation tonight, President Obama is likely to push back against the demand to shrink the federal government – a common refrain among the current crop of Republican presidential candidates — by pointing to Theodore Roosevelt’s call for an active federal government.

It is certainly true that, in his “New Nationalism” speech, Theodore Roosevelt developed the theme that elite special interests had come to dominate government at all levels, thereby turning government into a tool for their own narrow purposes. President Obama is hoping that a return to this theme will resonate with voters today. However, while the connection between President Obama and Theodore Roosevelt has been widely reported, few commentators have recognized that these same ideas actually can be traced back to an earlier Republican president . . . Abraham Lincoln.

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