- New Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds presidential race between Biden and Trump continuing to be closeby Charles Franklin
Support for other candidates could make a difference in overall results; outcome of Trump’s current trial could shift vote choices
MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey of registered voters finds President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are tied with 50% each in a two-candidate matchup. In a five-way contest including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein and Cornel West, Trump receives 40%, Biden 37%, Kennedy 17% and Stein and West 3% each.
Among likely voters Trump receives 51% and Biden 49% in the two-candidate choice. In the five-candidate race Trump has 44%, Biden 41%, Kennedy 11%, and Stein and West 2% each, among likely voters.
In a March 2024 Marquette Law School Poll national survey, the two-candidate race was also tied at 50% while in the five-candidate measure Trump had 41%, Biden 38%, Kennedy 14%, Stein 2% and West 5%, among registered voters.
The survey was conducted May 6-15, 2024, interviewing 902 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.6 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 684, with a margin of error of +/-5.2 percentage points. Overall, the poll surveyed 1,033 adults and has a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points.
Trump New York trial
Trump’s trial in New York on charges he falsified business records to cover up payments to adult film actress Stormy Daniels was ongoing during the poll’s field period. Sixty-five percent of those polled said they had heard a lot about the trial, while 28% had heard a little and 7% had heard nothing at all.
While most interviews were conducted during the week of Daniels’ testimony and before that of Michael Cohen, 54% said they think Trump did something illegal, 27% said he did something wrong but not illegal, and 19% said he did nothing wrong.
Prospective jurors in the New York case were asked to complete a questionnaire, including an item asking: “Can you give us your assurance that you will decide this case solely on the evidence you see and hear in this courtroom and the law as the judge gives it?” We asked our national sample of registered voters that same question. Seventy-nine percent said they could decide solely on the evidence and the law, while 11% said they could not and 9% said they didn’t know. Republicans and Democrats were equally likely to say they could decide solely on the evidence, with 80% of each saying that.
To test the possible effect of the outcome of the trial, we asked half the sample:
If it turns out that Donald Trump is found guilty in his New York trial, would you vote for Joe Biden or for Donald Trump?
And for the other half sample we asked:
If it turns out that Donald Trump is found not guilty in his New York trial, would you vote for Joe Biden or for Donald Trump?
For those respondents presented with the guilty scenario, Biden had a 4-percentage point advantage over Trump, 43%-39% with 18% for someone else or not voting. For those presented with the not-guilty scenario, Trump had a 6-point advantage over Biden, 44%-38% with 18% for someone else or not voting.
Trends in vote choice
The trend in vote choice for the two-candidate race is shown in Table 1 since May 2023. The margin has been small in most polls over this time with a tie in the last two polls.
Table 1: Presidential vote choice, Biden vs. Trump, May 2023-May 2024
Among registered voters
Poll dates Vote Joe Biden Donald Trump 5/6-15/24 50 50 3/18-28/24 50 50 2/5-15/24 49 51 11/2-7/23 48 52 9/18-25/23 48 51 7/7-12/23 50 50 5/8-18/23 47 52 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Trump or for Biden? Table 2 shows the Biden vs. Trump two-candidate results by party identification from February to May. Both candidates have drawn around 90% support among voters identifying with the candidate’s party, while independents have favored Biden in the last two surveys.
Table 2: Vote for Biden or Trump, by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID Vote choice Joe Biden Donald Trump 5/6-15/24 Republican 6 94 Independent 57 43 Democrat 90 10 3/18-28/24 Republican 12 88 Independent 53 46 Democrat 93 7 2/5-15/24 Republican 7 93 Independent 43 54 Democrat 91 9 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, February 5-15, 2024, March 18-28, 2024, and May 6-15, 2024 Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? Five-way race
The trend in the five-way race is shown in Table 3.
Table 3: Five-candidate ballot choice, Feb.-May 2024
Among registered voters
Poll dates Vote Biden Trump Kennedy Stein West 5/6-15/24 37 40 17 3 3 3/18-28/24 38 41 14 2 5 2/5-15/24 39 42 15 2 3 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Joe Biden, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, independent Cornel West, or the Green Party’s Jill Stein? The five-way vote is shown by party in Table 4. The additional candidates draw partisan support away from both Trump and Biden. Kennedy takes 15% from Republicans and 16% from Democrats. Stein and West draw 4% and 5% respectively from Democrats but only 1% each from Republicans.
Table 4: Five-candidate ballot, by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID Vote choice Biden Trump Kennedy Stein West 5/6-15/24 Republican 3 80 15 1 1 Independent 29 15 39 8 10 Democrat 71 4 16 4 5 3/18-28/24 Republican 7 77 12 0 4 Independent 20 20 37 7 15 Democrat 76 5 12 4 3 2/5-15/24 Republican 4 80 15 1 0 Independent 18 34 29 4 13 Democrat 78 5 12 2 4 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Joe Biden, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, independent Cornel West, or the Green Party’s Jill Stein? Favorability
All the five candidates and Vice President Kamala Harris have net negative favorability ratings, as shown in Table 5, with more unfavorable than favorable ratings. The independent candidates, Kennedy and especially Stein and West, have high rates of “haven’t heard enough.” Harris has the highest net negative rating at -24, with Biden at -21 and Trump at -17.
Among registered voters
Candidate Favorability Net favorable Favorable Unfavorable Haven’t heard enough Kamala Harris -24 35 59 6 Joe Biden -21 39 60 1 Donald Trump -17 41 58 1 Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. -14 31 45 24 Jill Stein -14 12 26 62 Cornel West -9 11 20 69 Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, May 6-15, 2024 Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? Biden’s favorability rating over time is shown in Table 6. His net favorability has fallen from -5 in November 2021 to -21 in the current survey.
Table 6: Biden favorability trend
Among registered voters
Poll dates Favorability Net favorable Favorable Unfavorable Haven’t heard enough 5/6-15/24 -21 39 60 1 3/18-28/24 -20 40 60 1 2/5-15/24 -20 40 60 1 11/2-7/23 -19 40 59 1 9/18-25/23 -21 39 60 1 7/7-12/23 -17 41 58 1 5/8-18/23 -23 37 60 3 3/13-22/23 -15 41 56 3 1/9-20/23 -11 43 54 2 11/15-22/22 -6 46 52 3 9/7-14/22 -9 44 53 2 7/5-12/22 -26 35 61 3 5/9-19/22 -17 40 57 3 3/14-24/22 -10 44 54 2 1/10-21/22 -6 46 52 3 11/1-10/21 -5 45 50 5 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? The favorability trend for Trump is shown in Table 7. His net favorability has improved from -34 in November 2021 to -17 in the current poll.
Table 7: Trump favorability trend
Among registered voters
Poll dates Favorability Net favorable Favorable Unfavorable Haven’t heard enough 5/6-15/24 -17 41 58 1 3/18-28/24 -13 43 56 1 2/5-15/24 -9 45 54 1 11/2-7/23 -15 42 57 2 9/18-25/23 -15 42 57 1 7/7-12/23 -28 35 63 2 5/8-18/23 -21 38 59 2 3/13-22/23 -29 34 63 2 1/9-20/23 -26 36 62 2 11/15-22/22 -36 31 67 1 9/7-14/22 -30 34 64 2 7/5-12/22 -27 35 62 3 5/9-19/22 -23 37 60 2 3/14-24/22 -22 38 60 2 1/10-21/22 -37 31 68 1 11/1-10/21 -34 32 66 2 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? Combining views of both candidates, 21% of those in the poll have unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump. The number of those unfavorable to both has remained near 20% since November 2021. Trump is seen favorably and Biden unfavorably by 39% while 37% are favorable to Biden and unfavorable to Trump. Just 2% are favorable to both. The trend for favorability to both Biden and Trump is shown in Table 8.
Table 8: Favorability to Biden and Trump, November 2021-May 2024
Among registered voters
Poll dates Favorability to both Fav Biden, Fav Trump Fav Biden, Unfav Trump Unfav Biden, Fav Trump Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump DK either 5/6-15/24 2 37 39 21 1 3/18-28/24 3 37 40 19 1 2/5-15/24 2 37 42 17 1 11/2-7/23 3 36 38 20 2 9/18-25/23 3 36 39 20 2 7/7-12/23 1 39 33 23 3 5/8-18/23 2 35 36 23 5 3/13-22/23 2 39 32 23 5 1/9-20/23 1 42 34 19 4 11/15-22/22 1 44 30 21 4 9/7-14/22 1 43 32 21 3 7/5-12/22 0 35 34 26 5 5/9-19/22 1 39 36 20 4 3/14-24/22 2 41 35 18 3 1/10-21/22 2 44 29 22 4 11/1-10/21 1 43 30 20 6 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? Those who are unfavorable to both have varied in their vote choices over recent polls, as shown in Table 9. In the current poll, among those unfavorable to both, 57% support Biden and 43% support Trump. In November 2023, Trump had the advantage with those unfavorable to both, 52% to Biden’s 48%, but Biden has held the advantage in each of the 2024 polls. (The sample size of those favorable to both Biden and Trump is too small for meaningful analysis and so is omitted from the table.)
Table 9: Biden vs. Trump vote, by favorability to both
Among registered voters
Favorability to Biden and Trump Vote Joe Biden Donald Trump 5/6-15/24 Fav Biden, Unfav Trump 97 3 Unfav Biden, Fav Trump 1 99 Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump 57 43 3/18-28/24 Fav Biden, Unfav Trump 100 0 Unfav Biden, Fav Trump 0 100 Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump 59 41 2/5-15/24 Fav Biden, Unfav Trump 98 2 Unfav Biden, Fav Trump 0 100 Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump 63 36 11/2-7/23 Fav Biden, Unfav Trump 98 2 Unfav Biden, Fav Trump 1 99 Unfav Biden, Unfav Trump 48 52 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? Presidential approval
Biden’s job approval in May was 40% with 60% disapproving, unchanged since March.
Asked if they approved or disapproved of how Trump handled his job when he was president, 46% approved and 54% disapproved. This is essentially unchanged since March, when 47% approved and 53% disapproved.
A strength of Biden has been his ability, despite his high disapproval rate, to win votes from those who “somewhat disapprove” of how he has handled his job as president: the poll shows him typically winning a small majority of this group of voters. In this survey, Biden wins 53% from those somewhat disapproving of his job performance, with Trump supported by 47% of that group. Biden’s advantage with those who somewhat disapprove is smaller in May than in other Marquette Law School Poll surveys. Table 10 shows how voters choose to vote for Biden or Trump by strength of approval or disapproval of Biden’s job performance. In addition to his just-noted small lead among the somewhat disapproving group, Biden wins large percentages of both categories of approving, while Trump dominates the strongly disapproving voters.
Table 10: Biden vs Trump vote, by Biden job approval
Among registered voters
Biden job approval Vote Joe Biden Donald Trump 5/6-15/24 Strongly approve 92 8 Somewhat approve 92 8 Somewhat disapprove 53 47 Strongly disapprove 9 91 3/18-28/24 Strongly approve 99 1 Somewhat approve 94 6 Somewhat disapprove 61 39 Strongly disapprove 8 92 2/5-15/24 Strongly approve 98 2 Somewhat approve 91 9 Somewhat disapprove 60 40 Strongly disapprove 4 95 11/2-7/23 Strongly approve 97 3 Somewhat approve 91 9 Somewhat disapprove 55 45 Strongly disapprove 6 94 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? Perceptions of Biden and Trump
Table 11 shows which candidate is thought to do a better job on eight issues. The list is presented in declining order for Trump based on the current survey:
- Immigration and border security: Trump 52%, Biden 25%
- The economy: Trump 50%, Biden 29%
- Handling the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza: Trump 42%, Biden 28%
- Foreign relations: Trump 43%, Biden 36%
- Medicare & Social Security: Biden 40%, Trump 35%
- Healthcare: Biden 41%, Trump 32%
- Abortion policy: Biden 43%, Trump 32%
- Ensuring fair and accurate elections: Biden 45%, Trump 31%
These views of the candidates have remained quite stable over the last three polls. (Ensuring fair elections appears in the May poll for the first time.)
The percentage who say neither candidate would be good, or they would both be about the same, ranges from 21% to 30%, an indication that even with two such well-known candidates, there remains considerable doubt over how successfully each would handle these issues.
Table 11: Who would handle issues better
Registered voters
Who is better on issue Poll dates Biden Trump Both about the same Neither good Immigration and border security 5/6-15/24 25 52 8 14 3/18-28/24 27 54 7 12 2/5-15/24 25 53 6 15 11/2-7/23 27 50 7 16 The economy 5/6-15/24 29 50 10 11 3/18-28/24 32 51 9 9 2/5-15/24 32 52 7 10 11/2-7/23 30 51 7 11 Handling the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza 5/6-15/24 28 42 9 21 3/18-28/24 32 42 9 17 2/5-15/24 28 43 11 18 11/2-7/23 31 42 11 16 Foreign relations 5/6-15/24 36 43 10 11 3/18-28/24 39 41 8 12 2/5-15/24 37 44 7 12 11/2-7/23 38 44 7 11 Medicare & Social Security 5/6-15/24 40 35 13 12 3/18-28/24 39 36 14 11 2/5-15/24 40 36 13 11 11/2-7/23 38 39 11 12 Health care 5/6-15/24 41 32 15 13 3/18-28/24 40 34 13 13 2/5-15/24 42 34 13 11 Abortion policy 5/6-15/24 43 32 11 14 3/18-28/24 42 33 10 15 2/5-15/24 42 34 11 12 11/2-7/23 41 34 10 14 Ensuring fair and accurate elections 5/6-15/24 45 31 10 14 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 Question: Do you think Joe Biden or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues? Health care not asked in November Asked which issues will be most important for their vote in November, respondents said the three most important issues were the economy (36%), immigration and border security (20%), and abortion policy (10%). The full set of responses is shown in Table 12.
Table 12: Most important issue, May 2024
Among registered voters
Percent Most Important Issue Percent The economy 36 Immigration and border security 20 Abortion policy 10 Medicare & Social Security 9 Ensuring fair and accurate elections 8 Health care 5 Foreign relations 3 The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza 3 Don’t know 8 Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, May 6-15, 2024 Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president? Partisans differ sharply in which issues they think are most important, as shown in Table 13. Republicans give top priority to the economy and immigration, with all other issues rated much lower. Democrats also rate the economy as most important, followed by abortion policy, with Medicare & Social Security and ensuring fair elections also receiving double-digit ratings. Independents rate the economy first, with immigration a distant second.
Table 13: Most important issue, by party identification
Among registered voters
Most important issue Party Identification Republican Independent Democrat The economy 40 41 31 Immigration and border security 37 14 3 Health care 2 5 7 Foreign relations 2 7 4 Abortion policy 5 6 15 Medicare & Social Security 5 2 14 The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza 2 7 3 Ensuring fair and accurate elections 3 4 13 Don’t know 5 14 10 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president? Candidate characteristics
Table 14 shows how well various phrases describe Biden and Trump. Biden particularly is seen as too old to be president compared to those who see Trump as too old, with 79% saying this phrase describes Biden very or somewhat well and 54% saying the same of Trump. The other characteristics measured with the percentage who thought this described the candidate very well:
- “Shares your values”: Biden 45%, Trump 44%
- “Has behaved corruptly”: Trump 64%, Biden 44%
- “Strong record of accomplishment as president”: Trump 51%, Biden 41%
- “Has the right temperament to be president”: Biden 52%, Trump 37%.
Table 14: How well does this phrase describe Biden or Trump
Among registered voters
Issue How well phrase describes Very/somewhat well Not too/not at all well Is too old to be president Biden 79 21 Trump 54 46 Shares your values Biden 45 55 Trump 44 56 Has behaved corruptly Biden 44 56 Trump 64 36 Strong record of accomplishments as president Biden 41 59 Trump 51 49 Has the right temperament to be president Biden 52 48 Trump 37 63 Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, May 6-15, 2024 Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Joe Biden)(Donald Trump)? Undocumented-immigrant policy
Support for deporting immigrants who are in the United States illegally has been quite high in recent polls. In the March national Marquette Law School Poll, a question was worded as
“Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries?”
In that March poll, 63% said they favored such deportations, while 37% were opposed.
In the May survey, we conducted a test of how framing of this issue might affect responses. A random half of respondents were asked the same question as in March, while the other half of respondents was asked:
“Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries even if they have lived here for a number of years, have jobs and no criminal record?”
This alternate framing produces substantially different responses. As in March, the prior wording finds 64% in favor of and 36% opposed to deportations. When the question includes such mention of long-term residents with jobs and no criminal record, the majority reverses, with 52% opposed to deportations and 48% in favor. These results are shown in Table 15.
Table 15: Deportation-policy wording experiment
Among registered voters
Question wording Favor or op/pose Favor Oppose Deport, with no qualifications 64 36 Deport even if long resident, job, no criminal record 48 52 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 Question: Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries? Question: Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries even if they have lived here for a number of years, have jobs and no criminal record? Attention to topics in the news
Of recent events in the news, respondents paid somewhat more attention to college campus protests against the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza than to Trump’s trial, with 73% hearing a lot about the protests, 21% hearing a little, and 6% hearing nothing at all.
Arguments were heard at the U.S. Supreme Court in Trump v. United States, concerning presidential immunity from criminal prosecution for acts as president. Forty-nine percent said they heard a lot about this, 41% heard a little, and 10% heard nothing.
After months of debate, the House of Representatives passed a foreign aid package that included aid to Ukraine and to Israel. Asked about these separately, 44% said they heard a lot about the passage of Ukraine aid, 42% heard a little, and 14% heard nothing. Asked about aid to Israel and humanitarian aid to Gaza, also part of the legislation, 39% heard a lot, 45% heard a little, and 15% heard nothing.
Respondents are more likely to say they have paid a lot of attention to news about inflation than to news about unemployment. The survey asks about the latest reports of the Consumer Price Index and of the unemployment rate for the most recent month available at the time of the survey. Table 16 shows attention paid to this news for inflation and for unemployment.
Table 16: How much heard about economic news
Registered voters
How much heard or read Issue A lot A little Nothing at all Inflation rate 41 45 14 Unemployment rate 22 47 30 Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, May 6-15, 2024 Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? . . . News reports that consumer prices (inflation) rose by 3.5% over the past 12 months (as of March) Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? . . . News reports that the unemployment rate was 3.9% (as of April) The attention to news about campus protests against the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza is related to views of how the protests should be handled. Among all registered voters, 39% say the protesters should be arrested, while 40% say colleges should allow the protests to continue and 21% say they don’t know.
Table 17 shows the relationship between attention to news concerning the protests and view of how the protests should be handled. Those who have paid the most attention to the protests are considerably more likely to favor arresting protesters than those who have paid little or no attention to news about the protest.
Table 17: How to handle protests, by news heard about protests
Among registered voters
Amount heard How to handle protest Arrest protesters Allow protests to continue Don’t know A lot 46 35 18 A little 20 52 28 Nothing at all 14 55 32 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? . . . College campus protests against the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza Question: Should colleges have police arrest student protesters opposing the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza or should colleges allow the protests to continue as a matter of free speech? Economic perceptions
Views of the nation’s economy have declined slightly since February. Table 18 shows the trend over the past five polls, with a dip in positive views and rise in negative views in the March and May surveys compared to February.
Table 18: View of the national economy
Among registered voters
Poll dates View of the economy Excellent Good Not so good Poor 5/6-15/24 3 28 38 31 3/18-28/24 5 28 38 29 2/5-15/24 6 29 40 25 11/2-7/23 3 24 40 33 9/18-25/23 3 20 45 32 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days? Asked about the economy in their state, respondents are a little more positive, though a majority say it is not so good or poor. The comparison is shown in Table 19.
Table 19: View of the national and state economy
Among registered voters
View of the economy Question wording Excellent Good Not so good Poor National economy 3 28 38 31 State economy 5 34 38 24 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days? Question: How would you describe the economy in your state these days? Asked about their personal financial situation, 40% said they are living comfortably, 42% are just getting by, and 18% say they are struggling. This is a dip in the percent living comfortable from the March survey. The full trend since September 2023 is shown in Table 20.
Table 20: Personal finances trend
Among registered voters
Poll dates Financial situation Living comfortably Just getting by Struggling 5/6-15/24 40 42 18 3/18-28/24 46 38 16 2/5-15/24 42 41 17 11/2-7/23 39 43 19 9/18-25/23 37 45 17 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet? International issues
Forty-seven percent say Biden has been working to negotiate a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, while 25% say he has not and 28% say they don’t know. This is unchanged from March.
Those saying the U.S. is giving too much support to Israel rose slightly, to 42% from 37% in March, while those saying not enough aid is being given barely changed at 25%, up from 24%. The full trend on views of aid to Israel is shown in Table 21.
Table 21: Aid to Israel trend
Among registered voters
Poll dates Amount of aid is Too much support Not enough support About the right amount of support 5/6-15/24 42 25 33 3/18-28/24 37 24 39 2/5-15/24 41 21 38 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Israel, not enough support to Israel, or about the right amount of support to Israel? The trend in views of aid to Ukraine is shown in Table 22. There has been a general rise in the percent saying the U.S. is giving too much aid and a decline in the percent saying about the right amount of aid.
Table 22: Aid to Ukraine
Among registered voters
Poll dates Amount of aid is Too much support Not enough support About the right amount of support 5/6-15/24 41 26 33 3/18-28/24 36 32 32 2/5-15/24 37 27 37 11/2-7/23 38 22 40 9/18-25/23 38 21 41 7/7-12/23 35 20 45 5/8-18/23 35 22 43 3/13-22/23 34 24 42 1/9-20/23 29 22 49 11/15-22/22 31 24 45 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 Question: When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine? Abortion
Preferences over abortion policy have changed little in polling since May 2022, with 70% saying abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 30% say it should be illegal in all or most cases. Table 23 shows the full trend on these preferences.
Table 23: Abortion policy preference trend
Among registered voters
Poll dates Policy preference Legal in all cases Legal in most cases Illegal in most cases Illegal in all cases 5/6-15/24 34 36 24 6 3/18-28/24 31 39 24 6 2/5-15/24 30 40 24 6 11/2-7/23 28 38 25 9 9/18-25/23 33 36 25 6 7/7-12/23 29 36 29 6 5/8-18/23 32 36 26 6 3/13-22/23 28 36 29 6 1/9-20/23 26 38 29 7 11/15-22/22 31 37 24 8 9/7-14/22 32 35 27 6 7/5-12/22 29 35 28 8 5/9-19/22 29 37 25 8 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 Question: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases? About the Marquette Law School Poll
The survey was conducted May 6-15, 2024, interviewing 902 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.6 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 684 with a margin of error of +/-5.2 percentage points. For all adults the sample size is 1,033 with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points.
Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. Certain other data from this survey (focusing on those about public views of the Supreme Court) were released on May 22, 2024. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available at the Marquette Law School Poll website.
- New Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds approval of U.S. Supreme Court falls to 39%, second lowest since 2020by Charles Franklin
Majority of public opposes presidential immunity, but Republican majority supports it when Trump is mentioned in question; partisan differences are substantial over restricting abortion-drug use, banning sleeping in public
MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds that 39% of adults approve of the job the U.S. Supreme Court is doing, while 61% disapprove. This is the lowest approval of the Court since July 2022, when 38% approved and 61% disapproved. Approval has fluctuated in the low to mid 40% range since March 2023, with the exception of March 2024 when approval was at 47%.
Approval of the Court fell from 66% in September 2020 and 60% in July 2021 to the mid-50% range later in 2021 and early 2022. It fell again, to 38%, in July 2022 following the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision overturning the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision that had made abortion legal nationwide. Since then, until this month’s survey, approval has fluctuated between 40% and 47%. The trend in approval since 2020 is shown in Figure 1 and Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)
Table 1: U.S. Supreme Court approval
Among adults
Poll dates Approval Approve Disapprove 5/6-15/24 39 61 3/18-28/24 47 53 2/5-15/24 40 60 11/2-7/23 41 59 9/18-25/23 43 57 7/7-12/23 45 55 5/8-18/23 41 59 3/13-22/23 44 56 1/9-20/23 47 53 11/15-22/22 44 56 9/7-14/22 40 60 7/5-12/22 38 61 5/9-19/22 44 55 3/14-24/22 54 45 1/10-21/22 52 46 11/1-10/21 54 46 9/7-16/21 49 50 7/16-26/21 60 39 9/8-15/20 66 33 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job? The latest Marquette Law School Poll national Supreme Court survey was conducted May 6-15, 2024. The survey interviewed 1,033 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points.
Approval of the Court fell in May across all categories of partisanship, declining 7 percentage points among Republicans, 12 points among independents, and 8 points among Democrats. Approval by party over the last three polls is shown in Table 2. (Party identification, here and subsequently, includes independents who lean to a party)
Table 2: Approval of the U.S Supreme Court, by party identification, February, March, and May 2024
Among adults
Party ID Court approval Approve Disapprove 5/6-15/24 Republican 57 43 Independent 26 74 Democrat 23 77 3/18-28/24 Republican 64 36 Independent 38 62 Democrat 31 69 2/5-15/24 Republican 57 43 Independent 28 72 Democrat 27 73 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, Feb. 5-15, 2024, March 18-28, 2024, and May 6-15, 2024 Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job? Cases before the Court
One case pending before the Court is Trump v. United States, concerning presidential immunity from criminal prosecution. The case was argued on April 25.
To understand how former President Donald Trump’s involvement affects views of presidential immunity, the poll asked a random half of the sample if “former presidents” should have immunity and the other half if “former President Donald Trump” should have immunity. Of those thus asked, 16% said “former presidents” should have immunity, while 71% said they should not. Of those asked about “former President Donald Trump,” 30% said he should have immunity, while 60% said he should not. The effect of mentioning Trump almost doubles support for immunity—increasing it by 14 percentage points, a larger effect than the 8-percentage-point effect found in March before the case was argued.
These results are shown in Table 3.
Table 3: Presidential immunity, by question wording
Among adults
Question wording Immunity opinion Should be immune from criminal prosecution for their official acts Should not have immunity from criminal prosecution for their official acts Don’t know 5/6-15/24 Former presidents wording 16 71 13 Former President Donald Trump wording 30 60 10 3/18-28/24 Former presidents wording 20 62 18 Former President Donald Trump wording 28 56 17 Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, March 18-28, 2024, and May 6-15, 2024 Question: The U.S. Supreme Court is considering a case concerning whether former presidents have immunity from criminal prosecution for official actions while in office. Which comes closer to your view? Question: The U.S. Supreme Court is considering a case concerning whether former President Donald Trump has immunity from criminal prosecution for official actions while president. Which comes closer to your view? The shift in responses largely comes from Republicans. When asked about “former presidents,” only 29% support immunity, but when asked about “former President Donald Trump,” support soars to 61%. Support for immunity also increases among independents, from 4% to 20%, when Trump is named. Democrats do not change support for immunity when Trump is mentioned, although the percent opposed declines slightly and the percent of those saying they don’t know increases. The full results are shown in Table 4.
Table 4: Presidential immunity, by question wording and party identification
Among adults
Party ID Immunity opinion Should be immune from criminal prosecution for their official acts Should not have immunity from criminal prosecution for their official acts Don’t know Former presidents wording Republican 29 48 22 Independent 4 75 21 Democrat 5 95 1 Former President Donald Trump wording Republican 61 29 10 Independent 20 47 33 Democrat 5 88 7 Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, May 6-15, 2024 Question: The U.S. Supreme Court is considering a case concerning whether former presidents have immunity from criminal prosecution for official actions while in office. Which comes closer to your view? Question: The U.S. Supreme Court is considering a case concerning whether former President Donald Trump has immunity from criminal prosecution for official actions while president. Which comes closer to your view? On April 22, the Court heard arguments in City of Grants Pass, Oregon v. Johnson, concerning whether the U.S. Constitution—the Eighth Amendment’s prohibition of “cruel and unusual punishment”—prohibits cities from banning homeless people camping on public property,
The survey found 47% said cities should be able to ban sleeping in public places, 36% said cities should not be able to do so, and 18% didn’t know.
Partisan differences are apparent in this case, with 63% of Republicans saying cities should be allowed to ban public sleeping, while 27% of independents and 35% of Democrats agree. The full results are shown in Table 5.
Table 5: Can cities ban sleeping in public spaces, by party identification
Among adults
Party ID Preference Cities can ban sleeping in public spaces Cities cannot ban sleeping in public spaces Don’t know Total 47 36 18 Republican 63 18 19 Independent 27 43 30 Democrat 35 50 15 Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, May 6-15, 2024 Question: The U.S. Supreme Court is considering a case concerning whether cities can, without violating the Constitution, ban homeless people from sleeping or camping in public spaces. Which comes closer to your view? Response option: Cities can ban sleeping in public spaces Response option: Cities cannot ban sleeping in public spaces There are also divisions by age on this topic. Those under 30 are opposed to cities banning sleeping in public spaces, while those who are older favor the permissibility of such bans, as shown in Table 6.
Table 6: Can cities ban sleeping in public spaces, by age
Among adults
Age Preference Cities can ban sleeping in public spaces Cities cannot ban sleeping in public spaces Don’t know Total 47 36 18 18-29 23 58 19 30-44 48 39 13 45-59 48 29 22 60+ 59 23 18 Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, May 6-15, 2024 Question: The U.S. Supreme Court is considering a case concerning whether cities can, without violating the Constitution, ban homeless people from sleeping or camping in public spaces. Which comes closer to your view? Response option: Cities can ban sleeping in public spaces Response option: Cities cannot ban sleeping in public spaces On March 26, the Court heard oral arguments in Food and Drug Administration v. Alliance for Hippocratic Medicine, concerning a lower court decision which would restrict access to mifepristone, a drug used in medication abortions. Among those polled, 57% said the Court should keep the current level of access to the drug by overturning the lower court ruling, while 27% said the Court should uphold the lower court ruling that increased restrictions on the use of mifepristone. The remaining 17% said they don’t know. These opinions have hardly shifted since March, when 60% said the Court should keep the current access. The two poll results are shown in Table 7.
Table 7: Opinion on abortion medication mifepristone
Among adults
Poll dates Preference The Court should rule to keep the current access to the medication abortion drug, thus overturning the lower court decision The Court should rule that the lower court was correct in its decision, thus restricting access to the medication abortion drug Don’t know 5/6-15/24 57 27 17 3/18-28/24 60 25 15 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 Question: The U.S. Supreme Court is reviewing a lower court decision that would significantly restrict (but not eliminate altogether) access to a drug used in medication abortions, mifepristone. Which comes closer to your view? Views on this issue differ by party, as shown in Table 8. A plurality of Republicans, 45%, favor upholding restrictions on access to mifepristone, while 37% say the Court should overturn the restrictions found by a lower court. A smaller plurality of independents favor overturning the restrictions, but almost as many say they don’t know. A large majority of Democrats, 79%, say the Court should strike down the restrictions.
Table 8: Restrict access to mifepristone, by party identification
Among adults
Party ID Preference The Court should rule to keep the current access to the medication abortion drug, thus overturning the lower court decision The Court should rule that the lower court was correct in its decision, thus restricting access to the medication abortion drug Don’t know Total 57 27 17 Republican 37 45 18 Independent 37 29 35 Democrat 79 8 12 Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, May 6-15, 2024 Question: The U.S. Supreme Court is reviewing a lower court decision that would significantly restrict (but not eliminate altogether) access to a drug used in medication abortions, mifepristone. Which comes closer to your view? Response option: The Court should rule to keep the current access to the medication abortion drug, thus overturning the lower court decision Response option: The Court should rule that the lower court was correct in its decision, thus restricting access to the medication abortion drug. On Feb. 26, the Court heard arguments in two cases, NetChoice, LLC v. Paxton and Moody v. NetChoice, LLC, dealing with how much social media companies can control the content of user postings on their sites, as well as the extent to which governments can regulate those decisions. We asked the question:
“The U.S. Supreme Court is considering a case concerning laws that regulate how large social media companies like Facebook and YouTube control content posted on their sites. Which comes closer to your view? 1. The Court should rule that the companies have a First Amendment right to make decisions about what content may be presented on their sites. 2. The Court should rule that the companies cannot decide what views users may express on the sites. 3. Don’t know.”
A plurality, 47%, say social media companies have a right to make decisions regarding content on their sites, while 35% say they should not be able to restrict content and 18% say they don’t know. These results are nearly identical to those in the March survey, as shown in Table 9.
Table 9: Opinion on social media regulation
Among adults
Poll dates Preference Companies can control content Companies cannot control content Don’t know 5/6-15/24 47 35 18 3/18-28/24 46 38 16 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 Question: The U.S. Supreme Court is considering a case concerning laws that regulate how large social media companies like Facebook and YouTube control content posted on their sites. Which comes closer to your view? Response option: The Court should rule that the companies have a First Amendment right to make decisions about what content may be presented on their sites. Response option: The Court should rule that the companies cannot decide what views users may express on the sites. Opinion on social media restrictions varies by political ideology, with conservatives more opposed to control by social media companies over content and liberals more in favor, as shown in Table 10.
Table 10: Social media restrictions, by political ideology
Among adults
Preference Political ideology Companies can control content Companies cannot control content Don’t know Total 47 35 18 Conservative 38 48 14 Moderate 47 35 18 Liberal 59 18 22 Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, May 6-15, 2024 Question: The U.S. Supreme Court is considering a case concerning laws that regulate how large social media companies like Facebook and YouTube control content posted on their sites. Which comes closer to your view? Response option: The Court should rule that the companies have a First Amendment right to make decisions about what content may be presented on their sites. Response option: The Court should rule that the companies cannot decide what views users may express on the sites. Those who are the heaviest users of the internet, saying they are “almost constantly” online, are more supportive of the ability of social media companies to impose restrictions and less likely to say they don’t know. Those who use the internet less often are less in favor of such an ability but also more likely to lack an opinion. These results are shown in Table 11.
Table 11: Social media restrictions, by internet use
Among adults
Internet use Preference Companies can control content Companies cannot control content Don’t know Total 47 35 18 Almost constantly 53 33 14 Several times a day 47 34 19 Once a day or less 23 50 27 Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, May 6-15, 2024 Question: The U.S. Supreme Court is considering a case concerning laws that regulate how large social media companies like Facebook and YouTube control content posted on their sites. Which comes closer to your view? Response option: The Court should rule that the companies have a First Amendment right to make decisions about what content may be presented on their sites. Response option: The Court should rule that the companies cannot decide what views users may express on the sites. On Nov. 7, the Court heard arguments in United States v. Rahimi on whether a federal law that prohibits the possession of a firearm by persons subject to domestic violence restraining orders violates the Second Amendment right to keep and bear arms.
The question was worded as follows:
“The U.S. Supreme Court is considering a case concerning the constitutionality of a federal law that prohibits people subject to domestic violence restraining orders from possessing firearms. Which comes closer to your view? 1. The Court should uphold the law prohibiting gun possession by those subject to restraining orders. 2. the Court should strike down the law as a violation of the Second Amendment right to bear arms. .3. Don’t know”
A substantial majority, 75%, say the Court should uphold the federal law, while 16% say the Court should strike down the law in favor of the right to bear arms and 9% say they don’t know. Opinion is little changed from March, as shown in Table 12.
Table 12: Opinion on gun possession by someone under restraining order
Among adults
Poll dates Preference Uphold law prohibiting firearm possession Strike down law prohibiting firearm possession Don’t know 5/6-15/24 75 16 9 3/18-28/24 72 17 11 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 Question: The U.S. Supreme Court is considering a case concerning the constitutionality of a federal law that prohibits people subject to domestic violence restraining orders from possessing firearms. Which comes closer to your view? Response option: The Court should uphold the law prohibiting gun possession by those subject to restraining orders. Response option: The Court should strike down the law as a violation of the Second Amendment right to bear arms. On this issue, 64% of Republicans and 59% of independents say the Court should uphold the law, as do 89% of Democrats, as shown in Table 13.
Table 13: Law prohibiting firearm possession, by party identification
Among adults
Party ID Preference Uphold law prohibiting firearm possession Strike down law prohibiting firearm possession Don’t know Total 75 16 9 Republican 64 26 10 Independent 59 18 23 Democrat 89 6 5 Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, May 6-15, 2024 Question: The U.S. Supreme Court is considering a case concerning the constitutionality of a federal law that prohibits people subject to domestic violence restraining orders from possessing firearms. Which comes closer to your view? Response option: The Court should uphold the law prohibiting gun possession by those subject to restraining orders. Response option: The Court should strike down the law as a violation of the Second Amendment right to bear arms. Opinions also differ by gender and by gun ownership. Among men, 73% say the Court should uphold the prohibition of firearm possession, while 78% of women say so. There is a larger difference between gun owners, 67% of whom say possession can be prohibited, and those not owning guns, 80% of whom say the same.
Knowledge and news about the Court
The Court has had a majority of justices appointed by Republican presidents for 54 years, since 1970 (with the exception of a 14 month vacancy in 2016-17 which created a 4-4 tie), and the current Court has six justices appointed by Republicans and three appointed by Democrats. Nonetheless, 28% of adults believe a majority of justices were definitely or probably appointed by Democratic presidents. Forty percent say that a majority were probably appointed by Republican presidents, and 33% that a majority were definitely appointed by Republicans. This opinion has varied modestly since 2019, as shown in Table 14.
Table 14: Majority of Court appointed by which party’s presidents
Among adults
Poll dates Majority appointed by Definitely/Probably Dem majority Probably Rep majority Definitely Rep majority 5/6-15/24 28 40 33 3/18-28/24 25 43 32 2/5-15/24 29 38 33 11/2-7/23 26 43 30 9/18-25/23 26 42 32 7/7-12/23 22 42 36 5/8-18/23 29 41 30 3/13-22/23 27 41 31 1/9-20/23 23 41 36 11/15-22/22 24 40 35 9/7-14/22 22 40 37 7/5-12/22 20 40 40 5/9-19/22 31 39 31 3/14-24/22 28 47 24 1/10-21/22 23 44 33 11/1-10/21 28 44 28 9/7-16/21 25 46 29 7/16-26/21 24 45 30 9/8-15/20 28 51 21 9/3-13/19 27 53 19 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 Question: What is your guess as to whether a majority of the current U.S. Supreme Court justices were appointed by Democratic or Republican presidents? Knowledge of which party’s presidents have appointed a majority of the Court varies by party, with 23% of Republicans correctly saying there is definitely a majority appointed by Republicans but nearly twice that percentage of Democrats, 44%, saying so. Likewise, 37% of Republicans say a majority were definitely or probably appointed by Democrats, whereas only 18% of Democrats believe this. The full results are shown in Table 15.
Table 15: Answers on majority of Court appointed by which party’s presidents, by party identification
Among adults
Party ID Majority appointed by Definitely/Probably Dem majority Probably Rep majority Definitely Rep majority Total 28 40 33 Republican 37 40 23 Independent 31 47 22 Democrat 18 37 44 Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, May 6-15, 2024 Question: What is your guess as to whether a majority of the current U.S. Supreme Court justices were appointed by Democratic or Republican presidents? Approval of the Court varies with party and knowledge about the Court, but in opposite directions. Among both Republicans and Democrats, approval breaks as knowledge of the makeup of the Court increases: Republican approval increases and Democratic approval decreases. This striking pattern is shown in Table 16.
Table 16: Approval of the Court, by knowledge of appointed majority and by party identification
Among adults
Majority appointed by Approval Approve Disapprove (Republican respondents) Definitely/Probably Dem majority 32 68 Probably Rep majority 67 33 Definitely Rep majority 79 21 (Independent respondents) Definitely/Probably Dem majority 31 69 Probably Rep majority 32 68 Definitely Rep majority 5 95 (Democrat respondents) Definitely/Probably Dem majority 53 47 Probably Rep majority 26 74 Definitely Rep majority 9 91 Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, May 6-15, 2024 Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job? Question: What is your guess as to whether a majority of the current U.S. Supreme Court justices were appointed by Democratic or Republican presidents? Basis of the justices’ decisions
In May, 56% say the justices’ decisions are motivated mainly by politics, and 44% say decisions are based mainly on the law. In September 2019, 35% said mainly politics and 64% said mainly the law. The increased perception of political motivation began in January 2022 with a dramatic 17-percentage-point shift. The full trend is shown in Table 17.
Table 17: Are justices’ decisions motivated mainly by the law or mainly by politics
Among adults
Poll dates Perceived motivation Mainly politics Mainly the law 5/6-15/24 56 44 3/18-28/24 50 50 2/5-15/24 54 46 11/2-7/23 55 45 9/18-25/23 52 48 7/7-12/23 58 42 1/9-20/23 49 51 7/5-12/22 52 48 1/10-21/22 47 53 11/1-10/21 30 70 9/7-16/21 39 61 7/16-26/21 29 71 9/8-15/20 37 62 9/3-13/19 35 64 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 Question: In general, what most often motivates Supreme Court justices’ decisions? Among Republicans, 60% say the justices’ decisions are based mainly on the law, while 67% of independents and 68% of Democrats say decisions are mainly based on politics. Table 18 shows these results.
Table 18: Justices’ decisions based mainly on law or politics
Among adults
Party ID Basis of decisions Mainly politics Mainly the law Total 56 44 Republican 40 60 Independent 67 33 Democrat 68 32 Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, May 6-15, 2024 Question: In general, what most often motivates Supreme Court justices’ decisions? Attention to news about the Court
Table 19 shows the trend in attention to news about the Court from September 2023 to May 2024. Few respondents had heard a lot about the Court “in the past month” in either September or November, but there has been some increase since, even though the percent hearing a lot declined slightly from March to May. With major decisions to come by the expected end of the term in late June, awareness of news about the Court is likely to increase.
Table 19: Attention to news about the Court
Among adults
Poll dates How much heard or read A lot A little Nothing at all 5/6-15/24 27 52 21 3/18-28/24 30 50 19 2/5-15/24 24 56 20 11/2-7/23 15 60 25 9/18-25/23 17 61 22 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 Question: Thinking about the last month only, how much have you heard or read about the U.S. Supreme Court? Confidence in institutions
Confidence in several institutions is summarized in Table 20. Juries in criminal cases enjoy the highest confidence of the five institutions and the lowest percentage drawing little or no confidence. Each of the other institutions has more respondents expressing little or no confidence than expressing a great deal or quite a lot of confidence. The U.S. Supreme Court has the second highest level of confidence, followed very closely by the U.S. Department of Justice and the presidency, with some differences in those saying little or no confidence. Congress suffers the lowest confidence rating, with 11% expressing a great deal or a lot of confidence and 53% saying they have little or no confidence in Congress.
Table 20: Confidence in institutions
Among adults
Institution Confidence Great deal/a lot Some Little/None Juries that decide criminal cases 35 41 24 U.S. Supreme Court 24 37 40 The U.S. Department of Justice 23 39 38 The Presidency 23 31 46 Congress 11 36 53 Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, May 6-15, 2024 Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? Perceived ideological leaning of the Court
In May, 25% say they would describe the Supreme Court as “very conservative,” 32% would describe it as “somewhat conservative,” and 31% would call the Court “moderate,” while 10% see the Court as “somewhat liberal” and 2% believe it is “very liberal.”
Views of the Court have shifted to the right since 2019, as shown in Table 21, with fewer seeing the Court as moderate. Perception of the Court as very conservative peaked in July 2022.
Table 21: Perceived ideological leaning of the Court, 2019-2024
Among adults
Poll dates Perceived ideology Very conservative Somewhat conservative Moderate Somewhat liberal Very liberal 5/6-15/24 25 32 31 10 2 3/18-28/24 25 32 33 8 3 2/5-15/24 21 34 33 7 5 11/2-7/23 21 35 32 7 5 9/18-25/23 20 37 32 7 3 7/7-12/23 27 35 28 7 3 5/8-18/23 24 33 30 10 3 3/13-22/23 23 35 34 6 2 1/9-20/23 22 37 31 8 2 11/15-22/22 25 36 32 6 2 9/7-14/22 29 35 27 5 3 7/5-12/22 34 33 21 7 3 5/9-19/22 23 33 34 8 2 3/14-24/22 15 37 36 10 2 1/10-21/22 17 38 35 8 2 11/1-10/21 15 35 39 8 1 9/7-16/21 16 35 40 7 2 7/16-26/21 13 37 42 6 1 9/8-15/20 5 30 54 9 2 9/3-13/19 5 33 50 9 3 Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: May 6-15, 2024 Question: In general, would you describe each of the following… The U.S. Supreme Court About the Marquette Law School Poll
The survey was conducted May 6-15, 2024, interviewing 1,033 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law School Poll website. Some items from this survey are held for later release.