MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has pulled into a tie with President Joe Biden in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, with each receiving 42% support from registered voters nationwide. DeSantis has increased his support in polling since January, while Biden’s support has remained stable. Some 15% say they would prefer someone else or would not vote. The trend in support is shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Ron DeSantis or for Joe Biden? (among registered voters)

Poll dates	Ron DeSantis	Joe Biden	Someone else	Wouldn’t vote
1/10-21/22	34	43	17	5
3/14-24/22	35	39	19	5
9/7-14/22	38	43	15	5
11/15-22/22	42	42	11	4

Biden continues to lead former President Donald Trump in a 2024 rematch with 44% to Trump’s 34%, while 23% say they prefer someone else or would not vote. The trend in preference between Biden and Trump is shown in Table 2.

 

Table 2: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? (among registered voters)

Poll dates	Donald Trump	Joe Biden	Someone else	Wouldn’t vote
11/1-10/21	35	43	18	4
1/10-21/22	33	45	18	4
3/14-24/22	38	43	16	4
9/7-14/22	36	42	19	3
11/15-22/22	34	44	19	4

The survey was conducted Nov. 15-22, 2022, interviewing 1,004 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points. The survey included 840 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. The Republican subsample has a margin of error of +/-6.1 percentage points, and the Democratic subsample margin of error is +/-5.6 percentage points.

Both Republicans and Democrats are divided over Trump or Biden as their party’s nominee in 2024. Among Republicans and independents who lean Republican (hereafter “Republicans”), 55% would like to see Trump run in 2024, while 45% said they would not like him to run. (Trump announced his candidacy for the 2024 Republican nomination on Nov. 15.) In the immediate previous national Marquette poll in September, 60% wanted Trump to run and 40% did not. The full trend since November 2021 is shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Would you like to see Donald Trump run for president in 2024, or not? (among Republican and independents who lean Republican registered voters)

Poll dates	Yes	No
11/1-10/21	60	40
1/10-21/22	56	44
3/14-24/22	61	39
5/9-19/22	61	38
7/5-12/22	64	35
9/7-14/22	60	40
11/15-22/22	55	45

Among registered voters who are Democrats or independents who lean Democratic (hereafter “Democrats”), 49% would like to see Biden run in 2024 and 51% would not. In September, 44% wanted him to run and 56% did not. This question had not been asked before September.

Among Republican registered voters, DeSantis has become steadily better known and seen more favorably since January, with 68% holding a favorable opinion, 10% unfavorable, and 22% saying they don’t know enough to give a rating. In January, 57% were favorable, 9% were unfavorable, and 34% lacked an opinion of DeSantis. The full trend is shown in Table 4.

 

Table 4: Ron DeSantis: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? (among Republicans and independents who lean Republican registered voters)

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
1/10-21/22	57	9	34
3/14-24/22	57	7	35
5/9-19/22	58	15	27
7/5-12/22	62	9	29
9/7-14/22	65	10	25
11/15-22/22	68	10	22

Among Republican registered voters, Trump is seen favorably by 67% and unfavorably by 32%, with 1% failing to give an opinion. Trump’s recent high-water mark for favorability was in July when 76% had a favorable opinion and 22% an unfavorable opinion. The full trend since Nov. 2021 is shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Donald Trump: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? (among Republican and independents who lean Republican registered voters)

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
11/1-10/21	70	29	1
1/10-21/22	71	28	1
3/14-24/22	75	23	1
5/9-19/22	75	22	2
7/5-12/22	76	22	2
9/7-14/22	74	25	1
11/15-22/22	67	32	1

Former Vice President Mike Pence is seen favorably by 51% of Republicans and unfavorably by 40%, with 9% failing to give an opinion. Pence’s favorable rating has declined and unfavorable increased since November 2021, as shown in Table 6.

 

Table 6: Mike Pence: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? (among Republican and independents who lean Republican registered voters)

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
11/1-10/21	65	21	14
1/10-21/22	57	31	12
3/14-24/22	59	28	13
5/9-19/22	50	34	16
7/5-12/22	49	31	20
9/7-14/22	54	32	14
11/15-22/22	51	40	9

DeSantis appeals to many of Trump’s GOP supporters, being seen favorably among Republicans who are also favorable to Trump, and, to a lesser but still-notable degree, he is also seen favorably among those unfavorable to Trump. Table 7 shows the relationship between Trump and DeSantis favorability, among Republican registered voters.

Table 7: Favorability to DeSantis by favorability to Trump (among Republican and independents who lean Republican registered voters)

Trump Favorability	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Favorable opinion	76	4	20
Unfavorable opinion	51	23	27

This high favorability does not carry over to opinion of Trump’s former vice president, Pence. In this case, just over half of Republicans who have a favorable opinion of Trump are also favorable to Pence, while 39% are unfavorable to him. Favorability to Pence is evenly divided among those Republicans who are unfavorable to Trump: 44% are favorable to Pence and 45% unfavorable, as shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Favorability to Pence by favorability to Trump (among Republican and independents who lean Republican registered voters)

Trump Favorability	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Favorable opinion	54	39	8
Unfavorable opinion	44	45	10

Issues for 2023

Survey respondents were asked if they favor or oppose each of 20 policy proposals drawn from recent Republican and Democratic congressional policy statements. The most popular issue is “limit the cost of prescription drugs,” favored by 92% of all adult respondents. This issue is the top choice among independents and Democrats and has the third highest support among Republicans. The least popular of the 20 proposals is “require Congress to reauthorize Social Security and Medicare every five years, rather than let the programs continue automatically,” favored by 32% and opposed by 68% among all respondents. This proposal ranks last among Republicans, is 4th from the bottom with Democrats, and 3rd from the bottom with independents.

The support for all 20 policies is shown in Table 9 for all adults, and in Table 10 through Table 12 for Republicans, Democrats, and independents. The preferences differ substantially by party, although some policies rank relatively high across partisan groups. In addition to limiting prescription drug costs, “pass a new voting rights law to protect every citizen’s right to vote” ranks 7th with Republicans and 2nd with both Democrats and independents. Among the largest partisan divides is “pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy,” which ranks 8th with 69% support among Republicans, but 18th among Democrats (19% support) and 17th with independents (40% support.) “Impeach Joe Biden” is also sharply partisan, as the 9th ranked issue among Republicans but the bottom-ranked with Democrats and 19th of 20 with independents.

Table 9: Here are things some people wish Congress would do next year. Regardless of whether you think Congress will actually do these things, which would you favor and which would you oppose?

Issue	Favor	Oppose
Limit the cost of prescription drugs	92	8
Pass a new voting rights law to protect every citizen’s right to vote	84	16
Increase federal aid to states and school districts to increase teacher compensation	78	22
Provide a tax credit to pay for tuition at two-year colleges and technical schools	77	23
Increase tax credits for low-income workers	75	25
Increase taxes on incomes over $500,000	74	26
Increase production of oil and gas in the U.S.	74	26
Increase funding for renewable energy production, such as wind and solar	74	26
Create federal subsidies for childcare costs	73	27
Pass laws making it easier for workers to form unions	70	30
Increase efforts to stop illegal immigration along the southern border	69	31
Fund hiring of 200,000 more police officers nationwide	67	33
Conduct a congressional investigation of the FBI	59	41
Provide national funding for vouchers allowing K-12 students to attend private or religious schools	55	44
Ban transgender athletes from sports competition	51	48
Sharply reduce U.S. military aid to Ukraine	45	55
Pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy	41	59
Impeach Joe Biden	34	66
Block confirmation of any federal judges nominated by Joe Biden	34	66
Require Congress to reauthorize Social Security and Medicare every five years, rather than let the programs continue automatically	32	68

 

Table 10: Among Republicans: Here are things some people wish Congress would do next year. Regardless of whether you think Congress will actually do these things, which would you favor and which would you oppose?

Issue	Favor	Oppose
Increase efforts to stop illegal immigration along the southern border	94	6
Increase production of oil and gas in the U.S.	93	7
Limit the cost of prescription drugs	89	11
Fund hiring of 200,000 more police officers nationwide	83	17
Conduct a congressional investigation of the FBI	80	20
Ban transgender athletes from sports competition	79	21
Pass a new voting rights law to protect every citizen’s right to vote	72	27
Pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy	69	31
Impeach Joe Biden	67	33
Provide national funding for vouchers allowing K-12 students to attend private or religious schools	67	33
Block confirmation of any federal judges nominated by Joe Biden	66	34
Increase tax credits for low-income workers	65	35
Increase federal aid to states and school districts to increase teacher compensation	61	39
Provide a tax credit to pay for tuition at two-year colleges and technical schools	61	39
Sharply reduce U.S. military aid to Ukraine	58	42
Create federal subsidies for childcare costs	56	44
Increase taxes on incomes over $500,000	53	47
Increase funding for renewable energy production, such as wind and solar	49	51
Pass laws making it easier for workers to form unions	47	53
Require Congress to reauthorize Social Security and Medicare every five years, rather than let the programs continue automatically	40	60

Table 11: Among Democrats: Here are things some people wish Congress would do next year. Regardless of whether you think Congress will actually do these things, which would you favor and which would you oppose?

Issue	Favor	Oppose
Limit the cost of prescription drugs	96	4
Pass a new voting rights law to protect every citizen’s right to vote	94	6
Increase funding for renewable energy production, such as wind and solar	92	8
Increase taxes on incomes over $500,000	91	9
Increase federal aid to states and school districts to increase teacher compensation	90	10
Provide a tax credit to pay for tuition at two-year colleges and technical schools	90	10
Pass laws making it easier for workers to form unions	89	10
Create federal subsidies for childcare costs	84	16
Increase tax credits for low-income workers	84	16
Increase production of oil and gas in the U.S.	58	42
Fund hiring of 200,000 more police officers nationwide	57	43
Increase efforts to stop illegal immigration along the southern border	51	49
Provide national funding for vouchers allowing K-12 students to attend private or religious schools	45	55
Conduct a congressional investigation of the FBI	42	58
Sharply reduce U.S. military aid to Ukraine	34	66
Ban transgender athletes from sports competition	28	71
Require Congress to reauthorize Social Security and Medicare every five years, rather than let the programs continue automatically	23	77
Pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy	19	81
Block confirmation of any federal judges nominated by Joe Biden	9	91
Impeach Joe Biden	7	93

 

Table 12: Among independents: Here are things some people wish Congress would do next year. Regardless of whether you think Congress will actually do these things, which would you favor and which would you oppose?

Issue	Favor	Oppose
Limit the cost of prescription drugs	87	13
Pass a new voting rights law to protect every citizen’s right to vote	84	16
Increase federal aid to states and school districts to increase teacher compensation	81	19
Create federal subsidies for childcare costs	80	20
Increase funding for renewable energy production, such as wind and solar	78	22
Provide a tax credit to pay for tuition at two-year colleges and technical schools	78	21
Increase taxes on incomes over $500,000	75	24
Increase production of oil and gas in the U.S.	74	24
Increase tax credits for low-income workers	71	29
Pass laws making it easier for workers to form unions	67	32
Conduct a congressional investigation of the FBI	61	39
Increase efforts to stop illegal immigration along the southern border	60	40
Provide national funding for vouchers allowing K-12 students to attend private or religious schools	59	40
Fund hiring of 200,000 more police officers nationwide	56	43
Ban transgender athletes from sports competition	51	49
Sharply reduce U.S. military aid to Ukraine	47	52
Pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy	40	60
Require Congress to reauthorize Social Security and Medicare every five years, rather than let the programs continue automatically	37	63
Impeach Joe Biden	32	68
Block confirmation of any federal judges nominated by Joe Biden	27	73

Aid to Ukraine

A substantial percentage of respondents, 70%, say they have heard a lot about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, while 23% say they have heard a little and 7% have heard nothing at all. Table 13 shows exposure to news about this overall and by party identification. Republicans and Democrats report equal exposure to news about the Ukraine conflict, while independents report substantially less exposure.

 

Table 13: The Russian invasion of Ukraine: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these?

Party ID	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
Total	70	23	7
Republican	73	22	5
Independent	51	33	16
Democrat	74	20	6

U.S. military aid to Ukraine has emerged as a bit of a partisan divide in recent months. Table 14 shows overall opinion and by party (taken from the tables above.)

Table 14: Sharply reduce U.S. military aid to Ukraine: Here are things some people wish Congress would do next year. Regardless of whether you think Congress will actually do these things, which would you favor and which would you oppose?

Party ID	Favor reducing aid	Oppose
Total	45	55
Republican	58	42
Independent	47	52
Democrat	34	66

These results shift somewhat when the issue is framed differently, later in the survey. There the question explicitly mentions that Russia invaded Ukraine: “When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine?”

Table 15 shows that with this framing, explicitly mentioning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there is less of a view, both overall and in each partisan category, that the U.S. is providing too much support, than with the previous “sharply reduce” framing that did not mention the Russian invasion. Almost half of Republicans (48%) say there is too much U.S. support, while 36% of independents and 17% of Democrats say the U.S. is providing too much support. Only a little over 20% of each partisan group say the U.S. is not providing enough support.

Table 15: When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine? (in percentages)

Party ID	Too much support	Not enough support	About the right amount of support
Total	32	23	45
Republican	48	21	31
Independent	36	20	43
Democrat	17	26	57

Respondents say that what happens in the Russia-Ukraine conflict matters to life in the United States, with fewer than 20% of all respondents, and fewer than 25% in all partisan groups, saying the conflicts matter “not much” or “not at all” to life in the United States. More than a third say it matters “a great deal” and around 40% say it matters “some,” as shown in Table 16.

Table 16: How much do you think what happens in the Russia-Ukraine conflict matters to life in the United States?

Party ID	A great deal	Some	Not much	Not at all
Total	39	42	14	5
Republican	34	43	16	6
Independent	37	39	17	6
Democrat	43	42	10	4

On the more general question of U.S. involvement in world affairs, 60% say it is better for the country to take an active part, whereas 40% say the U.S. should stay out of world affairs. Independents are especially skeptical of U.S. involvement in the world, with 56% saying we should stay out, and a minority, 44%, saying we should take an active part. Republicans are on balance in favor of international involvement, and Democrats are especially so, as shown in Table 17.

Table 17: Do you think it will be better for the future of the country if we take an active part in world affairs, or if we stay out of world affairs?

Party ID	Take an active part in world affairs	Stay out of world affairs
Total	60	40
Republican	55	45
Independent	44	56
Democrat	70	30

Confidence in the 2022 and 2020 elections

Seventy-one percent say they are very or somewhat confident in the accuracy of the 2022 elections, while 29% are not too or not at all confident in the results. Republicans remain less confident in election outcomes than are independents or Democrats, as shown in Table 18.

Table 18: How confident are you that, across the country, the votes for state and national offices were accurately cast and counted in the elections this November, 2022?

Party ID	Very confident	Somewhat confident	Not too confident	Not at all confident
Total	37	34	21	8
Republican	14	36	33	16
Independent	23	39	29	10
Democrat	61	30	9	1

Doubts about the 2020 election, especially among Republicans, are higher than for the 2022 vote. Table 19 shows confidence in the 2020 election in total and by party.

 

Table 19: How confident are you that, across the country, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election?

Party ID	Very confident	Somewhat confident	Not too confident	Not at all confident
Total	39	25	17	18
Republican	13	26	25	36
Independent	21	37	29	13
Democrat	68	21	7	4

Biden job approval

Biden’s job approval is unchanged since September at 45% approval and 55% disapproval. The trend in presidential approval since July 2021 is shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
7/16-26/21	58	42
9/7-16/21	48	52
11/1-10/21	49	51
1/10-21/22	46	53
3/14-24/22	44	55
5/9-19/22	42	57
7/5-12/22	36	64
9/7-14/22	45	55
11/15-22/22	45	55

Presidential favorability, past and present

Favorability to the current and recent past presidents shows considerable variation in overall opinion and by party, among adults nationwide.

Biden’s favorability rating closely resembles his job approval, as shown in Table 21, and shows large partisan differences. Biden is seen positively among Democrats, but independents and Republicans are quite unfavorable to him.

 

Table 21: Joe Biden: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Party ID	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Total	43	53	3
Republican	6	92	2
Independent	31	58	11
Democrat	78	20	2

Trump has lower favorable ratings than Biden overall and is also less favorably viewed among Republicans than Biden is viewed among Democrats. Independents are also more unfavorable to Trump than to Biden. Democrats are as negative towards Trump as Republicans are towards Biden. Table 22 shows these details.

Table 22: Donald Trump: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Party ID	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Total	32	66	2
Republican	66	32	2
Independent	26	66	8
Democrat	5	95	0

Two other former presidents, Barack Obama and George W. Bush, are seen more favorably by the public than are the current or immediately previous presidents. Obama is viewed favorably by 62% and unfavorably by 34% of all adults. He is seen favorably by one-in-four Republicans, far more than see Biden in that light, and by substantial majorities of independents and Democrats, as shown in Table 23.

Table 23: Barack Obama: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Party ID	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Total	62	34	4
Republican	25	73	3
Independent	63	28	8
Democrat	93	5	3

Former President Bush is seen favorably by 51% and unfavorably by 40% of adults. A majority of Republicans and a plurality of Democrats see him favorably, though independents are more unfavorable than favorable, as shown in Table 24.

 

Table 24: George W. Bush: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Party ID	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Total	51	40	9
Republican	59	34	7
Independent	36	45	18
Democrat	49	43	8

Secret documents at Mar-a-Lago

The investigation of Trump’s possession of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago continues, with courts considering various issues. Among the public, 66% say they believe Trump had top-secret and other classified material at his Florida home, while 34% do not believe this. In September, 67% believed he had secret documents and 34% did not believe that.

Table 25 shows how these beliefs differ by party in the November survey.

Table 25: Do you believe Donald Trump had top secret and other classified material or national security documents at his home in Mar-a-Lago this summer?

Party ID	Yes	No
Total	66	34
Republican	34	66
Independent	64	36
Democrat	93	7

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted Nov. 15-22, 2022, interviewing 1,004 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points, and 840 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. The Republican subsample of 368 respondents has a margin of error of +/-6.1 percentage points and the Democratic subsample of 383 respondents has a margin of error is +/-5.6 percentage points.

Certain other data from this survey (those about public views of the Supreme Court) were released yesterday, Nov. 30, and can be found on the Marquette Law School Poll website.

Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law School Poll website.