MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has pulled into a tie with President Joe Biden in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, with each receiving 42% support from registered voters nationwide. DeSantis has increased his support in polling since January, while Biden’s support has remained stable. Some 15% say they would prefer someone else or would not vote. The trend in support is shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)
Biden continues to lead former President Donald Trump in a 2024 rematch with 44% to Trump’s 34%, while 23% say they prefer someone else or would not vote. The trend in preference between Biden and Trump is shown in Table 2.
Table 2: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? (among registered voters)
Poll dates
Donald Trump
Joe Biden
Someone else
Wouldn’t vote
11/1-10/21
35
43
18
4
1/10-21/22
33
45
18
4
3/14-24/22
38
43
16
4
9/7-14/22
36
42
19
3
11/15-22/22
34
44
19
4
The survey was conducted Nov. 15-22, 2022, interviewing 1,004 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points. The survey included 840 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. The Republican subsample has a margin of error of +/-6.1 percentage points, and the Democratic subsample margin of error is +/-5.6 percentage points.
Both Republicans and Democrats are divided over Trump or Biden as their party’s nominee in 2024. Among Republicans and independents who lean Republican (hereafter “Republicans”), 55% would like to see Trump run in 2024, while 45% said they would not like him to run. (Trump announced his candidacy for the 2024 Republican nomination on Nov. 15.) In the immediate previous national Marquette poll in September, 60% wanted Trump to run and 40% did not. The full trend since November 2021 is shown in Table 3.
Among registered voters who are Democrats or independents who lean Democratic (hereafter “Democrats”), 49% would like to see Biden run in 2024 and 51% would not. In September, 44% wanted him to run and 56% did not. This question had not been asked before September.
Among Republican registered voters, DeSantis has become steadily better known and seen more favorably since January, with 68% holding a favorable opinion, 10% unfavorable, and 22% saying they don’t know enough to give a rating. In January, 57% were favorable, 9% were unfavorable, and 34% lacked an opinion of DeSantis. The full trend is shown in Table 4.
Table 4: Ron DeSantis: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? (among Republicans and independents who lean Republican registered voters)
Poll dates
Favorable opinion
Unfavorable opinion
Haven’t heard enough
1/10-21/22
57
9
34
3/14-24/22
57
7
35
5/9-19/22
58
15
27
7/5-12/22
62
9
29
9/7-14/22
65
10
25
11/15-22/22
68
10
22
Among Republican registered voters, Trump is seen favorably by 67% and unfavorably by 32%, with 1% failing to give an opinion. Trump’s recent high-water mark for favorability was in July when 76% had a favorable opinion and 22% an unfavorable opinion. The full trend since Nov. 2021 is shown in Table 5.
Former Vice President Mike Pence is seen favorably by 51% of Republicans and unfavorably by 40%, with 9% failing to give an opinion. Pence’s favorable rating has declined and unfavorable increased since November 2021, as shown in Table 6.
Table 6: Mike Pence: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? (among Republican and independents who lean Republican registered voters)
Poll dates
Favorable opinion
Unfavorable opinion
Haven’t heard enough
11/1-10/21
65
21
14
1/10-21/22
57
31
12
3/14-24/22
59
28
13
5/9-19/22
50
34
16
7/5-12/22
49
31
20
9/7-14/22
54
32
14
11/15-22/22
51
40
9
DeSantis appeals to many of Trump’s GOP supporters, being seen favorably among Republicans who are also favorable to Trump, and, to a lesser but still-notable degree, he is also seen favorably among those unfavorable to Trump. Table 7 shows the relationship between Trump and DeSantis favorability, among Republican registered voters.
This high favorability does not carry over to opinion of Trump’s former vice president, Pence. In this case, just over half of Republicans who have a favorable opinion of Trump are also favorable to Pence, while 39% are unfavorable to him. Favorability to Pence is evenly divided among those Republicans who are unfavorable to Trump: 44% are favorable to Pence and 45% unfavorable, as shown in Table 8.
Survey respondents were asked if they favor or oppose each of 20 policy proposals drawn from recent Republican and Democratic congressional policy statements. The most popular issue is “limit the cost of prescription drugs,” favored by 92% of all adult respondents. This issue is the top choice among independents and Democrats and has the third highest support among Republicans. The least popular of the 20 proposals is “require Congress to reauthorize Social Security and Medicare every five years, rather than let the programs continue automatically,” favored by 32% and opposed by 68% among all respondents. This proposal ranks last among Republicans, is 4th from the bottom with Democrats, and 3rd from the bottom with independents.
The support for all 20 policies is shown in Table 9 for all adults, and in Table 10 through Table 12 for Republicans, Democrats, and independents. The preferences differ substantially by party, although some policies rank relatively high across partisan groups. In addition to limiting prescription drug costs, “pass a new voting rights law to protect every citizen’s right to vote” ranks 7th with Republicans and 2nd with both Democrats and independents. Among the largest partisan divides is “pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy,” which ranks 8th with 69% support among Republicans, but 18th among Democrats (19% support) and 17th with independents (40% support.) “Impeach Joe Biden” is also sharply partisan, as the 9th ranked issue among Republicans but the bottom-ranked with Democrats and 19th of 20 with independents.
Pass a new voting rights law to protect every citizen’s right to vote
84
16
Increase federal aid to states and school districts to increase teacher compensation
78
22
Provide a tax credit to pay for tuition at two-year colleges and technical schools
77
23
Increase tax credits for low-income workers
75
25
Increase taxes on incomes over $500,000
74
26
Increase production of oil and gas in the U.S.
74
26
Increase funding for renewable energy production, such as wind and solar
74
26
Create federal subsidies for childcare costs
73
27
Pass laws making it easier for workers to form unions
70
30
Increase efforts to stop illegal immigration along the southern border
69
31
Fund hiring of 200,000 more police officers nationwide
67
33
Conduct a congressional investigation of the FBI
59
41
Provide national funding for vouchers allowing K-12 students to attend private or religious schools
55
44
Ban transgender athletes from sports competition
51
48
Sharply reduce U.S. military aid to Ukraine
45
55
Pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy
41
59
Impeach Joe Biden
34
66
Block confirmation of any federal judges nominated by Joe Biden
34
66
Require Congress to reauthorize Social Security and Medicare every five years, rather than let the programs continue automatically
32
68
Table 10: Among Republicans: Here are things some people wish Congress would do next year. Regardless of whether you think Congress will actually do these things, which would you favor and which would you oppose?
Issue
Favor
Oppose
Increase efforts to stop illegal immigration along the southern border
94
6
Increase production of oil and gas in the U.S.
93
7
Limit the cost of prescription drugs
89
11
Fund hiring of 200,000 more police officers nationwide
83
17
Conduct a congressional investigation of the FBI
80
20
Ban transgender athletes from sports competition
79
21
Pass a new voting rights law to protect every citizen’s right to vote
72
27
Pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy
69
31
Impeach Joe Biden
67
33
Provide national funding for vouchers allowing K-12 students to attend private or religious schools
67
33
Block confirmation of any federal judges nominated by Joe Biden
66
34
Increase tax credits for low-income workers
65
35
Increase federal aid to states and school districts to increase teacher compensation
61
39
Provide a tax credit to pay for tuition at two-year colleges and technical schools
61
39
Sharply reduce U.S. military aid to Ukraine
58
42
Create federal subsidies for childcare costs
56
44
Increase taxes on incomes over $500,000
53
47
Increase funding for renewable energy production, such as wind and solar
49
51
Pass laws making it easier for workers to form unions
47
53
Require Congress to reauthorize Social Security and Medicare every five years, rather than let the programs continue automatically
40
60
Table 11: Among Democrats: Here are things some people wish Congress would do next year. Regardless of whether you think Congress will actually do these things, which would you favor and which would you oppose?
Issue
Favor
Oppose
Limit the cost of prescription drugs
96
4
Pass a new voting rights law to protect every citizen’s right to vote
94
6
Increase funding for renewable energy production, such as wind and solar
92
8
Increase taxes on incomes over $500,000
91
9
Increase federal aid to states and school districts to increase teacher compensation
90
10
Provide a tax credit to pay for tuition at two-year colleges and technical schools
90
10
Pass laws making it easier for workers to form unions
89
10
Create federal subsidies for childcare costs
84
16
Increase tax credits for low-income workers
84
16
Increase production of oil and gas in the U.S.
58
42
Fund hiring of 200,000 more police officers nationwide
57
43
Increase efforts to stop illegal immigration along the southern border
51
49
Provide national funding for vouchers allowing K-12 students to attend private or religious schools
45
55
Conduct a congressional investigation of the FBI
42
58
Sharply reduce U.S. military aid to Ukraine
34
66
Ban transgender athletes from sports competition
28
71
Require Congress to reauthorize Social Security and Medicare every five years, rather than let the programs continue automatically
23
77
Pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy
19
81
Block confirmation of any federal judges nominated by Joe Biden
9
91
Impeach Joe Biden
7
93
Table 12: Among independents: Here are things some people wish Congress would do next year. Regardless of whether you think Congress will actually do these things, which would you favor and which would you oppose?
Issue
Favor
Oppose
Limit the cost of prescription drugs
87
13
Pass a new voting rights law to protect every citizen’s right to vote
84
16
Increase federal aid to states and school districts to increase teacher compensation
81
19
Create federal subsidies for childcare costs
80
20
Increase funding for renewable energy production, such as wind and solar
78
22
Provide a tax credit to pay for tuition at two-year colleges and technical schools
78
21
Increase taxes on incomes over $500,000
75
24
Increase production of oil and gas in the U.S.
74
24
Increase tax credits for low-income workers
71
29
Pass laws making it easier for workers to form unions
67
32
Conduct a congressional investigation of the FBI
61
39
Increase efforts to stop illegal immigration along the southern border
60
40
Provide national funding for vouchers allowing K-12 students to attend private or religious schools
59
40
Fund hiring of 200,000 more police officers nationwide
56
43
Ban transgender athletes from sports competition
51
49
Sharply reduce U.S. military aid to Ukraine
47
52
Pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy
40
60
Require Congress to reauthorize Social Security and Medicare every five years, rather than let the programs continue automatically
37
63
Impeach Joe Biden
32
68
Block confirmation of any federal judges nominated by Joe Biden
27
73
Aid to Ukraine
A substantial percentage of respondents, 70%, say they have heard a lot about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, while 23% say they have heard a little and 7% have heard nothing at all. Table 13 shows exposure to news about this overall and by party identification. Republicans and Democrats report equal exposure to news about the Ukraine conflict, while independents report substantially less exposure.
Table 13: The Russian invasion of Ukraine: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these?
Party ID
A lot
A little
Nothing at all
Total
70
23
7
Republican
73
22
5
Independent
51
33
16
Democrat
74
20
6
U.S. military aid to Ukraine has emerged as a bit of a partisan divide in recent months. Table 14 shows overall opinion and by party (taken from the tables above.)
These results shift somewhat when the issue is framed differently, later in the survey. There the question explicitly mentions that Russia invaded Ukraine: “When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine?”
Table 15 shows that with this framing, explicitly mentioning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there is less of a view, both overall and in each partisan category, that the U.S. is providing too much support, than with the previous “sharply reduce” framing that did not mention the Russian invasion. Almost half of Republicans (48%) say there is too much U.S. support, while 36% of independents and 17% of Democrats say the U.S. is providing too much support. Only a little over 20% of each partisan group say the U.S. is not providing enough support.
Respondents say that what happens in the Russia-Ukraine conflict matters to life in the United States, with fewer than 20% of all respondents, and fewer than 25% in all partisan groups, saying the conflicts matter “not much” or “not at all” to life in the United States. More than a third say it matters “a great deal” and around 40% say it matters “some,” as shown in Table 16.
On the more general question of U.S. involvement in world affairs, 60% say it is better for the country to take an active part, whereas 40% say the U.S. should stay out of world affairs. Independents are especially skeptical of U.S. involvement in the world, with 56% saying we should stay out, and a minority, 44%, saying we should take an active part. Republicans are on balance in favor of international involvement, and Democrats are especially so, as shown in Table 17.
Seventy-one percent say they are very or somewhat confident in the accuracy of the 2022 elections, while 29% are not too or not at all confident in the results. Republicans remain less confident in election outcomes than are independents or Democrats, as shown in Table 18.
Doubts about the 2020 election, especially among Republicans, are higher than for the 2022 vote. Table 19 shows confidence in the 2020 election in total and by party.
Table 19: How confident are you that, across the country, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election?
Party ID
Very confident
Somewhat confident
Not too confident
Not at all confident
Total
39
25
17
18
Republican
13
26
25
36
Independent
21
37
29
13
Democrat
68
21
7
4
Biden job approval
Biden’s job approval is unchanged since September at 45% approval and 55% disapproval. The trend in presidential approval since July 2021 is shown in Table 20.
Favorability to the current and recent past presidents shows considerable variation in overall opinion and by party, among adults nationwide.
Biden’s favorability rating closely resembles his job approval, as shown in Table 21, and shows large partisan differences. Biden is seen positively among Democrats, but independents and Republicans are quite unfavorable to him.
Table 21: Joe Biden: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?
Party ID
Favorable opinion
Unfavorable opinion
Haven’t heard enough
Total
43
53
3
Republican
6
92
2
Independent
31
58
11
Democrat
78
20
2
Trump has lower favorable ratings than Biden overall and is also less favorably viewed among Republicans than Biden is viewed among Democrats. Independents are also more unfavorable to Trump than to Biden. Democrats are as negative towards Trump as Republicans are towards Biden. Table 22 shows these details.
Two other former presidents, Barack Obama and George W. Bush, are seen more favorably by the public than are the current or immediately previous presidents. Obama is viewed favorably by 62% and unfavorably by 34% of all adults. He is seen favorably by one-in-four Republicans, far more than see Biden in that light, and by substantial majorities of independents and Democrats, as shown in Table 23.
Former President Bush is seen favorably by 51% and unfavorably by 40% of adults. A majority of Republicans and a plurality of Democrats see him favorably, though independents are more unfavorable than favorable, as shown in Table 24.
Table 24: George W. Bush: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?
Party ID
Favorable opinion
Unfavorable opinion
Haven’t heard enough
Total
51
40
9
Republican
59
34
7
Independent
36
45
18
Democrat
49
43
8
Secret documents at Mar-a-Lago
The investigation of Trump’s possession of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago continues, with courts considering various issues. Among the public, 66% say they believe Trump had top-secret and other classified material at his Florida home, while 34% do not believe this. In September, 67% believed he had secret documents and 34% did not believe that.
Table 25 shows how these beliefs differ by party in the November survey.
The survey was conducted Nov. 15-22, 2022, interviewing 1,004 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points, and 840 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. The Republican subsample of 368 respondents has a margin of error of +/-6.1 percentage points and the Democratic subsample of 383 respondents has a margin of error is +/-5.6 percentage points.
Certain other data from this survey (those about public views of the Supreme Court) were released yesterday, Nov. 30, and can be found on the Marquette Law School Poll website.
Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law School Poll website.