Poll also finds Baldwin holding 7-point lead over Hovde in U.S. Senate race, third-party candidates for president fading, and overall opinions of Harris improving since pre-candidacy surveys
MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin voters finds former President Donald Trump with 50% and Vice President Kamala Harris with 49% among registered voters in a head-to-head matchup in the race for president. Among likely voters, Harris is the choice of 50% and Trump the choice of 49%. These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose.
In June, before the debate between President Joe Biden and Trump and with Biden as the Democratic candidate, Biden and Trump each received 50% among Wisconsin registered voters, while Biden received 51% and Trump 49% among likely voters.
In a multicandidate race, Harris, a Democrat, is the choice of 45% and Trump, a Republican, 43%. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. receives 8%, Libertarian Chase Oliver 1%, Green Party candidate Jill Stein 1%, Constitution Party candidate Randall Terry <0.5%, and independent Cornel West <0.5%, among registered voters. Among likely voters, it is Harris 46%, Trump 45%, Kennedy 6%, Oliver 1%, Stein 1%, Terry <0.5%, and West <0.5%.
In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin is supported by 53% to Republican Eric Hovde’s 46% among registered voters. Among likely voters, Baldwin receives 52% and Hovde receives 47%. These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked whom they would vote for if they had to choose. On the initial question, before that “if you had to choose” follow-up, Baldwin receives 47%, Hovde 39%, and 14% say they are undecided, among registered voters.
When the Senate ballot includes independent candidates, Baldwin receives 50%, Hovde receives 44%, Phil Anderson (the “Disrupt the Corruption” party candidate) receives 2% and Thomas Leager, of the “America First” party, receives 2%, among registered voters. Among likely voters, Baldwin receives 51% and Hovde 45%, with 2% each for Anderson and Leager.
The survey was conducted July 24-Aug. 1, 2024, interviewing 877 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.6 percentage points. The poll included 801 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.8 percentage points. (All results are stated as percentages.)
While the race for president remains very close in Wisconsin, when asked who they think is likely to win in November, 51% say Trump will definitely or probably win, while 39% say Harris will definitely or probably win and 11% say they don’t know.
The perceived chances of Biden winning, had he stayed in the race, are lower than the perceived chances with Harris as the candidate. Asked about the winner between Biden and Trump, 20% say Biden would definitely or probably win, while 69% say Trump would win.
A substantial majority (79%) say Biden should have withdrawn from the race, while 15% say he should have continued as the Democratic nominee. Among Democrats, 91% say Biden should have withdrawn.
Asked whom they would have voted for if Biden remained in the race, 42% say Biden, 47% say Trump, and 10% say they don’t know.
A majority (58%) say Biden should not resign but should serve out his term as president, while 33% say he should resign and 9% say they don’t know.
Democrats are overwhelmingly satisfied with Harris as the nominee, with 92% very or somewhat satisfied with her as the nominee and 7% very or somewhat dissatisfied.
The poll was completed before she secured the nomination through a virtual roll call of delegates on Aug. 2. A majority (54%) of Democrats think the party should settle on a nominee before the convention, while almost a third (32%) say there should be an open convention and 13% don’t know.
Favorability to candidates
Harris is seen in this survey favorably by 41% and unfavorably by 53% of registered voters, with 6% saying they don’t know enough about her to have an opinion. When this question was last asked about Harris in June 2022, 36% had a favorable opinion and 49% had an unfavorable view, with 15% who did not have an opinion of her.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz was chosen as the Democratic nominee for vice president after the poll was completed.
In this survey, following the July 13 assassination attempt against Trump and the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee July 15-18, favorability toward Trump in Wisconsin rose to 44%, with 54% unfavorable and 2% without an opinion. In June, his favorability was 41%, with 57% unfavorable and 2% lacking an opinion.
Favorability toward Biden was unchanged from June, following his withdrawal from the presidential race, remaining at 40% favorable, while his unfavorable rating declined one percentage point to 57%.
Those with unfavorable opinions of both candidates—the so-called “double haters”—declined slightly in July. For Biden and Trump, 17% were unfavorable to both in June. That group declined to 14% in July. For Harris and Trump, 11% have an unfavorable view of both in July.
Republican vice-presidential nominee JD Vance is seen favorably by 31% and unfavorably by 41%, with 29% saying they haven’t heard enough or don’t know. Vance is seen much more favorably by Republicans, but is viewed unfavorably by independents and especially Democrats, as shown in Table 1. Substantial percentages of each partisan group, and especially independents, say they have not yet formed an opinion of Vance.
Table 1: Vance favorability, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Favorability | |||
| Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough | Don’t know | |
| Republican | 63 | 8 | 28 | 1 |
| Independent | 13 | 31 | 55 | 0 |
| Democrat | 1 | 78 | 20 | 1 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 | ||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [name] or haven’t you heard enough about them yet? | ||||
Vance is seen as an excellent pick for the vice-presidential slot by 17%, as a good choice by 25%, as a fair choice by 10%, and as a poor selection by 35%, with 14% who say they don’t know. More than three-quarters of Republicans rate the choice of Vance as excellent or good, while independents are more divided and more than two-thirds of Democrats rate it poor, as shown in Table 2.
Table 2: Vance as VP, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Rate choice of Vance as VP | ||||
| Excellent | Good | Fair | Poor | Don’t know | |
| Republican | 32 | 45 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| Independent | 8 | 23 | 23 | 17 | 28 |
| Democrat | 3 | 4 | 9 | 68 | 16 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 | |||||
| Question: How would you rate Trump’s choice of Vance for vice president? Would you rate this choice as excellent, good, fair, or poor? | |||||
Enthusiasm and likelihood of voting
Enthusiasm about voting in November increased sharply from June to July, as shown in Table 4. In the current survey, 61% say they are very enthusiastic about voting, a substantial increase from 46% in June. This was the first substantial movement in enthusiasm in 2024, with fewer than 50% in all prior Marquette Law School Poll surveys of Wisconsin voters in 2024 saying they were very enthusiastic. For comparison, in the previous presidential cycle in early August 2020, 62% were very enthusiastic, basically the same level as now matched for the first time in 2024, but such enthusiasm was also seen in earlier Marquette Law School Poll surveys in 2020, unlike this year.
Table 4: Enthusiasm to vote in November election
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Enthusiasm | |||
| Very | Somewhat | Not too | Not at all | |
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 61 | 21 | 15 | 4 |
| 6/12-20/24 | 46 | 21 | 19 | 14 |
| 4/3-10/24 | 47 | 22 | 18 | 12 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 49 | 25 | 17 | 9 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | 46 | 28 | 19 | 6 |
| 8/4-9/20 | 62 | 20 | 8 | 9 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 | ||||
| Question: (2024) How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic? | ||||
| Question: (2020) How enthusiastic are you about voting in this November’s elections? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic? | ||||
Enthusiasm has increased primarily among Democrats and, to a lesser degree, among independents and Republicans. Republicans had a substantial enthusiasm advantage over Democrats in previous polls in 2024, but that has been mostly erased now, as shown in Table 5.
Table 5: Enthusiasm to vote in November election, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Enthusiasm | |||
| Very | Somewhat | Not too | Not at all | |
| Democrat | ||||
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 62 | 19 | 15 | 4 |
| 6/12-20/24 | 40 | 24 | 20 | 16 |
| Independent | ||||
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 37 | 20 | 26 | 17 |
| 6/12-20/24 | 30 | 17 | 23 | 29 |
| Republican | ||||
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 64 | 22 | 12 | 1 |
| 6/12-20/24 | 57 | 19 | 16 | 8 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 | ||||
| Question: (2024) How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic? | ||||
Those who are very enthusiastic give Trump a slight edge over Harris, while those somewhat enthusiastic give Harris an even slighter edge. Those who are not too enthusiastic and those not at all enthusiastic give Harris larger margins, as shown in Table 6.
Table 6: Vote for Harris or Trump, by enthusiasm
Among registered voters
| Enthusiasm | Vote choice 2024 | |||
| Kamala Harris | Donald Trump | Haven’t decided | Refused | |
| Very enthusiastic | 47 | 52 | 0 | 0 |
| Somewhat enthusiastic | 50 | 49 | 2 | 0 |
| Not too enthusiastic | 55 | 43 | 2 | 0 |
| Not at all enthusiastic | 60 | 36 | 4 | 0 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 | ||||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat, and Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, would you vote for Kamala Harris or for Donald Trump or haven’t you decided? | ||||
| Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Harris or for Trump? | ||||
| Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic? | ||||
In June, with Biden as the Democratic candidate, this enthusiasm gap was much more pronounced, as shown in Table 7. At that time, Trump held a larger margin with the very enthusiastic than he now holds over Harris among that group, and Biden had larger margins over Trump with all other enthusiasm groups than Harris now holds.
Table 7: Vote for Biden or Trump, by enthusiasm, June 2024
Among registered voters
| Enthusiasm | Vote choice 2024 | ||
| Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Haven’t decided/Neither | |
| Very enthusiastic | 39 | 61 | 0 |
| Somewhat enthusiastic | 57 | 43 | 0 |
| Not too enthusiastic | 58 | 41 | 1 |
| Not at all enthusiastic | 65 | 33 | 1 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, June 12-20, 2024 | |||
| Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between President Joe Biden, the Democrat, and Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, would you vote for Joe Biden or for Donald Trump or haven’t you decided? | |||
| Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump? | |||
| Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic? | |||
Characteristics of Harris, Trump, and Biden
The replacement of Biden by Harris has changed the relative perceptions of the candidates, with Harris having different perceived traits from Biden. Table 8 shows which phrases describe Harris, Trump, and Biden. The Biden numbers are from the June poll while Harris and Trump perceptions are from July, the new survey.
Table 8: How well does this phrase describe Harris or Trump or Biden
Among registered voters
| Candidate | How well phrase describes | |
| Very/somewhat well | Not too/not at all well | |
| Is too old to be president | ||
| Harris | 12 | 87 |
| Trump | 59 | 40 |
| Biden | 76 | 24 |
| Shares your values | ||
| Harris | 51 | 49 |
| Trump | 46 | 54 |
| Biden | 43 | 57 |
| Has behaved corruptly | ||
| Harris | 37 | 62 |
| Trump | 62 | 37 |
| Biden | 46 | 53 |
| Strong record of accomplishments | ||
| Harris | 44 | 55 |
| Trump | 54 | 46 |
| Biden | 43 | 57 |
| Has the right temperament to be president | ||
| Harris | 56 | 43 |
| Trump | 42 | 58 |
| Biden | 52 | 48 |
| Is a strong leader | ||
| Harris | 50 | 50 |
| Trump | 58 | 42 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 (Note: Biden items asked in June. Strong leader was not asked in June.) | ||
| Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Kamala Harris)(Donald Trump)(Joe Biden)? | ||
Respondents were also asked if Harris and Trump have the communication skills to succeed as president. For Harris, 52% say she does have the skills needed and 39% say she does not, while 9% say they don’t know. For Trump, 49% say he has the communication skills to succeed as president, while 49% say he does not and 1% say they don’t know. This has not been asked about Biden.
With respect to his New York criminal trial in May, 52% say Trump was guilty as the jury found, while 36% say he is not guilty and the jury made the wrong ruling. Eleven percent don’t know.
Trump is scheduled to be sentenced in September. In July, 28% say he should be given no penalty at all, 11% say a fine only, 11% say probation without jail, 38% say he should be sentenced to jail, and 12% don’t know.
Issues in the presidential campaign
Table 9 shows which candidate it is thought would do a better job on each of eight issues. Trump is seen as better on immigration and border security, the Israel-Hamas war, and the economy, and holds a slight edge on handling foreign relations. Harris is seen as better on abortion policy, health care, ensuring fair and accurate elections, and on Medicare and Social Security.
Between 8% and 20% say both candidates would be about the same or that neither would be good on each issue.
Table 9: Which candidate would do a better job on issues
Among registered voters
| Issue | Who better | |||
| Harris | Trump | Both about the same | Neither good | |
| Immigration and border security | 36 | 52 | 6 | 5 |
| Israel-Hamas war | 33 | 47 | 7 | 13 |
| The economy | 39 | 51 | 6 | 3 |
| Foreign relations | 44 | 47 | 4 | 4 |
| Medicare & Social Security | 48 | 39 | 9 | 4 |
| Ensuring fair and accurate elections | 47 | 36 | 9 | 7 |
| Health care | 49 | 36 | 10 | 5 |
| Abortion policy | 53 | 34 | 6 | 6 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 | ||||
| Question: Do you think Kamala Harris or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues, they are both about the same or would neither be good on the issue? | ||||
Respondents were asked which of the eight issues would be most important for deciding their vote. The economy is the top-rated issue, followed by abortion policy, and immigration, with Medicare and Social Security as fourth most important, as shown in Table 10.
Table 10: Most important issue
Among registered voters
| Most important issue | |
| Response | Percent |
| The economy | 38 |
| Abortion policy | 14 |
| Immigration and border security | 13 |
| Medicare & Social Security | 9 |
| Health care | 7 |
| Ensuring fair and accurate elections | 6 |
| The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza | 3 |
| Foreign relations | 2 |
| Don’t know | 7 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 | |
| Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president? | |
Partisans differ on the most important issues, as shown in Table 11. Republicans are much more likely to rank the economy and immigration as most important, while placing little weight on any of the other issues. Independents rank the economy as most important with no other issue reaching double digits. Democrats put abortion policy as their top concern, followed by Medicare and Social Security with the economy third. Only 1% of Democrats rank immigration as their top issue concern, as do 7% of independents.
Table 11: Most important issue, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Issue | ||||||||
| The economy | Immigration and border security | Health care | Foreign relations | Abortion policy | Medicare & Social Security | The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza | Ensuring fair and accurate elections | Don’t know | |
| Republican | 55 | 26 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| Independent | 45 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 14 |
| Democrat | 17 | 1 | 13 | 1 | 26 | 18 | 5 | 11 | 8 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 | |||||||||
| Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president? | |||||||||
Support for deporting immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally varies depending on the framing of the issue. A random half-sample of the survey was asked:
Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries?
With this wording, 64% favor deportation and 34% are opposed, with 2% who say they don’t know.
The other half-sample was asked:
Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries even if they have lived here for a number of years, have jobs, and no criminal record?
When worded this way, 44% favor deportations and 55% are opposed, with a half-percent who don’t know.
Two-thirds of registered voters say abortion should be legal in all or most cases. and one third say it should be illegal in all or most cases. This has changed little since Roe v. Wade was overturned in June 2022. The full trend is shown in Table 12.
Table 12: Abortion opinion trend
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Opinion | ||||
| Legal in all cases | Legal in most cases | Illegal in most cases | Illegal in all cases | Don’t know | |
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 33 | 34 | 27 | 5 | 1 |
| 6/12-20/24 | 34 | 32 | 26 | 8 | 0 |
| 4/3-10/24 | 28 | 36 | 26 | 9 | 1 |
| 6/8-13/23 | 32 | 34 | 25 | 6 | 1 |
| 8/10-15/22 | 30 | 35 | 25 | 5 | 3 |
| 6/14-20/22 | 27 | 31 | 24 | 11 | 5 |
| 10/26-31/21 | 23 | 38 | 23 | 11 | 4 |
| 2/19-23/20 | 18 | 37 | 22 | 15 | 6 |
| 10/24-28/18 | 26 | 29 | 24 | 14 | 4 |
| 9/12-16/18 | 26 | 36 | 21 | 9 | 6 |
| 7/11-15/18 | 27 | 36 | 18 | 11 | 6 |
| 10/23-26/14 | 24 | 34 | 24 | 15 | 3 |
| 10/21-24/13 | 26 | 36 | 25 | 10 | 2 |
| 10/25-28/12 | 28 | 32 | 23 | 12 | 4 |
| 10/11-14/12 | 25 | 34 | 25 | 12 | 3 |
| 9/27-30/12 | 25 | 35 | 23 | 12 | 3 |
| 9/13-16/12 | 26 | 34 | 23 | 13 | 3 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 | |||||
| Question: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases? | |||||
Multicandidate vote trends
The trend in vote preference including independent and third-party candidates is shown in Table 13. Oliver was not included prior to the June poll and Terry appears for the first time in July. The total third-party vote has declined in the poll’s surveys, from 22% in January to 10% now, with Kennedy falling from 16% to 8% over that time among registered voters.
Table 13: Vote including third-party candidates
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Vote choice | |||||||
| Biden/Harris | Trump | Kennedy | Oliver | Stein | Terry | West | Don’t know | |
| Registered voters | ||||||||
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 45 | 43 | 8 | 1 | 1 | <.5 | <.5 | 0 |
| 6/12-20/24 | 40 | 43 | 8 | 2 | 2 | n/a | 4 | 1 |
| 4/3-10/24 | 40 | 41 | 13 | n/a | 3 | n/a | 2 | 1 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 37 | 40 | 16 | n/a | 4 | n/a | 2 | 1 |
| Likely voters | ||||||||
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 46 | 45 | 6 | 1 | 1 | <.5 | <.5 | 0 |
| 6/12-20/24 | 42 | 44 | 7 | 1 | 2 | n/a | 3 | 1 |
| 4/3-10/24 | 41 | 42 | 12 | n/a | 3 | n/a | 1 | 1 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 39 | 41 | 13 | n/a | 4 | n/a | 2 | 1 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 | ||||||||
| Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, Libertarian Chase Oliver, the Green Party’s Jill Stein, Constitution Party’s Randall Terry, or independent Cornel West? Note: Prior to July the vote choice asked about Joe Biden. | ||||||||
In the multicandidate ballot test in July, Kennedy takes more votes from Republicans (10%) than from Democrats (4%).
Independent voters are more drawn to the third-party candidates than are Republican or Democratic voters. Kennedy receives 21% from independents, Oliver 3%, Stein 2%, Terry <0.5%, and West 1%. This remains a minority of independent voters; among independents in the multicandidate race, Trump receives 38% and Harris 35%.
These results are shown in Table 14.
Table 14: Multicandidate ballot, by party identification
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Vote choice | |||||||
| Biden/Harris | Trump | Kennedy | Oliver | Stein | Terry | West | Don’t know | |
| 7/24-8/1/24 | ||||||||
| Republican | 4 | 85 | 10 | <.5 | <.5 | <.5 | <.5 | 0 |
| Independent | 35 | 38 | 21 | 3 | 2 | <.5 | 1 | 0 |
| Democrat | 91 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | <.5 | <.5 | 0 |
| 6/12-20/24 | ||||||||
| Republican | 2 | 86 | 6 | 2 | 1 | n/a | 2 | 1 |
| Independent | 21 | 32 | 26 | 4 | 9 | n/a | 8 | 1 |
| Democrat | 85 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 2 | n/a | 4 | 0 |
| 4/3-10/24 | ||||||||
| Republican | 4 | 79 | 13 | n/a | 3 | n/a | <.5 | 1 |
| Independent | 23 | 32 | 32 | n/a | 5 | n/a | 4 | 5 |
| Democrat | 85 | 1 | 8 | n/a | 4 | n/a | 2 | 0 |
| 1/24-31/24 | ||||||||
| Republican | 5 | 76 | 16 | n/a | 1 | n/a | 1 | 0 |
| Independent | 33 | 27 | 28 | n/a | 3 | n/a | 4 | 2 |
| Democrat | 73 | 5 | 12 | n/a | 8 | n/a | 2 | 1 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 | ||||||||
| Question: If the presidential ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Kamala Harris, Republican Donald Trump, independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr, Libertarian Chase Oliver, the Green Party’s Jill Stein, Constitution Party’s Randall Terry, or independent Cornel West? Note: Prior to July the vote choice asked about Joe Biden. | ||||||||
Senate vote by party identification
As shown in Table 15, among registered voters who identify as Democrats (or who lean), Baldwin receives 98% and Hovde 2%. Among Republicans, Hovde holds 88%, while Baldwin takes 11%. Independents favor Baldwin by 52% to Hovde’s 46%.
With likely voters, partisan loyalty is slightly higher for both parties, but independents favor Hovde with 50% and 48% for Baldwin
Table 15: Vote for Baldwin or Hovde
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Vote choice | ||
| Tammy Baldwin | Eric Hovde | Haven’t decided | |
| Registered voters | |||
| Republican | 11 | 88 | 1 |
| Independent | 52 | 46 | 1 |
| Democrat | 98 | 2 | 1 |
| Likely voters | |||
| Republican | 9 | 91 | 0 |
| Independent | 48 | 50 | 2 |
| Democrat | 99 | 1 | 0 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 | |||
| Question: If the 2024 election for U.S. Senate were held today between (Eric Hovde, the Republican), and (Tammy Baldwin, the Democrat), would you vote for (Eric Hovde) or for (Tammy Baldwin) or haven’t you decided? | |||
| Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for (Hovde) or for (Baldwin?) | |||
The multicandidate Senate vote by party identification in July is shown in Table 16. Third-party candidate support is highest among independents and lowest among Democrats.
Table 16: Multicandidate Senate vote
Among registered voters
| Party ID | Vote choice | ||||
| Baldwin | Hovde | Anderson | Leager | Don’t know | |
| Registered voters | |||||
| Republican | 8 | 88 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Independent | 42 | 34 | 9 | 7 | 8 |
| Democrat | 96 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Likely voters | |||||
| Republican | 8 | 89 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Independent | 44 | 36 | 9 | 8 | 2 |
| Democrat | 98 | <.5 | <.5 | <.5 | 0 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 | |||||
| Question: If the U.S. Senate ballot included additional candidates, would you vote for Democrat Tammy Baldwin, Republican Eric Hovde, Disrupt the Corruption Party’s Phil Anderson, or America First Party’s Thomas Leage? | |||||
Senate candidate favorability
In the current survey, Baldwin’s favorable rating is 44% and her unfavorable rating is also 44%, with 12% saying they don’t know enough about her. Since January, Baldwin’s favorable rating has increased two points and her unfavorable has decreased by one percentage point.
Hovde is seen favorably by 24% and unfavorably by 37%, with 38% who haven’t heard enough. The number of those without an opinion of Hovde has declined from 82% in January to 38% in July. In that time, his favorable rating has increased by 17 percentage points and his unfavorable by 28 percentage points.
These favorability trends are shown in Table 17.
Table 17: Favorability to Senate candidates
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Favorability | |||
| Net favorable | Favorable | Unfavorable | Haven’t heard enough | |
| Tammy Baldwin | ||||
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 0 | 44 | 44 | 12 |
| 6/12-20/24 | 1 | 45 | 44 | 11 |
| 4/3-10/24 | 5 | 47 | 42 | 11 |
| 1/24-31/24 | -3 | 42 | 45 | 13 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | -2 | 41 | 43 | 15 |
| 6/8-13/23 | 3 | 40 | 37 | 22 |
| Eric Hovde | ||||
| 7/24-8/1/24 | -13 | 24 | 37 | 38 |
| 6/12-20/24 | -9 | 23 | 32 | 44 |
| 4/3-10/24 | -5 | 19 | 24 | 56 |
| 1/24-31/24 | -2 | 7 | 9 | 82 |
| 6/8-13/23 | -4 | 4 | 8 | 85 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 | ||||
| Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet? | ||||
Biden and Trump presidential job approval
Biden’s job approval in July stands at 42%, with disapproval at 57%—little changed since June. Table 18 shows the recent trend in job approval.
Table 18: Biden job approval
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Job approval | |||||
| Total approve | Total disapprove | Strongly approve | Somewhat approve | Somewhat disapprove | Strongly disapprove | |
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 42 | 57 | 18 | 23 | 12 | 45 |
| 6/12-20/24 | 40 | 57 | 16 | 24 | 10 | 47 |
| 4/3-10/24 | 40 | 57 | 16 | 24 | 8 | 49 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 41 | 58 | 18 | 23 | 10 | 48 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | 42 | 57 | 17 | 25 | 12 | 44 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 | ||||||
| Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president? | ||||||
Respondents were also asked about whether they approved of the job Trump did when he was president. In July, 48% approved and 51% disapproved, an increase in approval of one percentage point since June. For comparison, Trump’s approval in the last Marquette Law School poll before the 2020 election was 47% approve and 52% disapprove. The recent trend is shown in Table 19.
Table 19: Trump retrospective job approval
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Job approval | |||||
| Total approve | Total disapprove | Strongly approve | Somewhat approve | Somewhat disapprove | Strongly disapprove | |
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 48 | 51 | 32 | 16 | 8 | 43 |
| 6/12-20/24 | 47 | 52 | 30 | 16 | 8 | 44 |
| 4/3-10/24 | 47 | 52 | 26 | 21 | 9 | 43 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 | ||||||
| Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Donald Trump handled his job when he was president? | ||||||
Economic conditions and personal financial situation
The national economy is seen as excellent by only 5%, as good by 28%, as not so good by 33%, and as poor by 33%. Views of the economy have fluctuated modestly since November 2023, as shown in Table 20.
Table 20: Views of the national economy
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | National economy | |||
| Excellent | Good | Not so good | Poor | |
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 5 | 28 | 33 | 33 |
| 6/12-20/24 | 4 | 30 | 34 | 32 |
| 4/3-10/24 | 5 | 28 | 38 | 28 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 6 | 32 | 34 | 28 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | 3 | 24 | 36 | 37 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 | ||||
| Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days? | ||||
Respondents’ family financial situation is mixed: 44% say they are living comfortably, 40% say they are just getting by, and 15% say they are struggling. This trend is shown in Table 21. The percentage living comfortably has declined by 4 percentage points since November 2023, while the percentage just getting by has increased by 4 percentage points. The percentage struggling is the same as in November 2023.
Table 21: Family financial situation
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Financial situation | ||
| Living comfortably | Just getting by | Struggling | |
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 44 | 40 | 15 |
| 6/12-20/24 | 46 | 37 | 17 |
| 4/3-10/24 | 45 | 40 | 15 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 49 | 38 | 13 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | 48 | 36 | 15 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 | |||
| Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet? | |||
Approval of governor, legislature, and state Supreme Court
Table 22 shows the approval ratings for Gov. Tony Evers. Evers’s approval is 51% and disapproval is 44%. In June, Evers’s approval was 51% and disapproval was 44%.
Table 22: Approval of Tony Evers’ job performance
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Approval | ||
| Approve | Disapprove | Don’t know | |
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 51 | 44 | 5 |
| 6/12-20/24 | 51 | 44 | 6 |
| 4/3-10/24 | 52 | 44 | 3 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 51 | 44 | 5 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | 53 | 46 | 2 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 | |||
| Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin? | |||
Thirty-three percent approve of the way the state legislature is handling its job, while 54% disapprove and 12% don’t know. This trend is shown in Table 23.
Table 23: Approval of Wisconsin legislature’s job performance
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Approval | ||
| Approve | Disapprove | Don’t know | |
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 33 | 54 | 12 |
| 4/3-10/24 | 34 | 56 | 9 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 34 | 58+ | 8 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | 40 | 57 | 3 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 | |||
| Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Wisconsin legislature is handling its job? | |||
Table 24 shows the recent trend in approval of the way the Wisconsin Supreme Court is handling its job. In July, 46% approve and 37% disapprove, with 17% who don’t know.
Table 24: Approval of Wisconsin Supreme Court’s job performance
Among registered voters
| Poll dates | Approval | ||
| Approve | Disapprove | Don’t know | |
| 7/24-8/1/24 | 46 | 37 | 17 |
| 4/3-10/24 | 46 | 39 | 15 |
| 1/24-31/24 | 45 | 43 | 13 |
| 10/26-11/2/23 | 51 | 43 | 5 |
| Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024 | |||
| Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Wisconsin state Supreme Court is handling its job? | |||
About the Marquette Law School Poll
The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. The survey was conducted July 24-Aug. 1, 2024, interviewing 877 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.6 percentage points. The sample contains 801 likely voters, those who say they are absolutely certain to vote in November, with a margin of error of +/-4.8 percentage points.
The survey was conducted with a hybrid sample of 653 respondents selected from the Wisconsin voter registration list and 224 selected from the SSRS Opinion Panel, a sample drawn from postal addresses across the state and invited to take part in surveys online. The interview was conducted online with 737 respondents and with 140 by telephone with a live interviewer. Full details of the methodology are contained in the methodology statement at the link below.
The partisan makeup of the sample is 31% Republican, 29% Democratic, and 40% independent. Since January 2020, the long-term partisan balance has been 30% Republican and 29% Democratic, with 40% independent.
The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.