MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds that in the race for president, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris is the choice of 48% and Republican former President Donald Trump is the choice of 47% among likely voters, with 4% saying they would vote for someone else and 1% who would not vote for president.
When those who would vote for someone else or not vote are asked whom they would support if they had to choose between Harris or Trump, Harris and Trump each receive 50% among likely voters.
When the ballot question explicitly includes independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver, Green Party candidate Jill Stein, and independent Cornel West, Harris receives 44% and Trump 41%. Kennedy is supported by 9%, Oliver receives 2%, Stein is the choice of 1%, and West wins 2%, among likely voters. Kennedy, who suspended his campaign, and the other third-party candidates are not on all state ballots.
In voting for Congress, 51% of likely voters say they will vote for the Democratic candidate and 49% will vote for the Republican candidate.
When asked who they think is likely to win in November, 53% say Harris will definitely or probably win, while 47% say Trump will definitely or probably win.
The survey was conducted Oct. 1-10, 2024, interviewing 886 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 699, with a margin of error of +/-4.7 percentage points. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages.)
Perceptions of presidential and vice-presidential candidates
Harris is seen favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 52% of registered voters, with 2% saying they haven’t heard enough. In July, 47% had a favorable view and 50% an unfavorable view of Harris, while 3% hadn’t heard enough. The full trend of Harris favorability is shown in Table 1. The net favorability rating for Harris in Marquette Law School national polling has been much better for her since she became the candidate for president than during most of her earlier vice presidency.
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?
In October, Trump is seen favorably by 44% and unfavorably by 55%, while 1% are without an opinion. In July, his favorability was 45% and unfavorability 53%, with 1% lacking an opinion. The full trend for Trump favorability since 2021 is shown in Table 2. Trump’s net favorability hit a low point in January 2022 at -37 but has improved steadily in 2023 and 2024.
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?
President Joe Biden remains an unpopular figure, with more negative ratings than either Harris or Trump. His net favorability was only slightly negative at the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022. Since that time, he has received net negative ratings near -20 in most Marquette Law School national polls. In the new poll, 39% have a favorable opinion and 60% have an unfavorable opinion of Biden, for a -21 favorability. The full trend for Biden since November 2021 is shown in Table 3.
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?
The percentage of voters with unfavorable opinions of both candidates, the so-called “double haters,” increased slightly from late July, but remains well below the levels in the spring when Biden was the Democratic candidate and Harris his running mate. For Harris and Trump, 12% are unfavorable to both in October, a slight increase from July’s 10%. By contrast, 21% were unfavorable to both Trump and Harris in May. The trend since November 2023 is shown in Table 4. Since Harris became the Democratic presidential candidate, slightly more people are favorable to her and unfavorable to Trump than those unfavorable to Harris and favorable to Trump. From March 2023 through May 2024, more were favorable to Trump and unfavorable to Harris.
Table 4: Trend in those unfavorable to both Harris and Trump
Among registered voters
Poll dates
Opinion
Fav Harris, Fav Trump
Fav Harris, Unfav Trump
Unfav Harris, Fav Trump
Unfav Harris, Unfav Trump
DK either
10/1-10/24
3
43
40
12
2
7/24-8/1/24
4
43
39
10
5
5/6-15/24
2
33
38
21
6
3/18-28/24
3
32
38
21
6
2/5-15/24
3
34
39
17
7
11/2-7/23
3
30
37
23
7
9/18-25/23
4
32
35
22
7
7/7-12/23
1
31
32
25
10
5/8-18/23
1
30
33
24
11
3/13-22/23
1
30
31
23
15
1/9-20/23
1
34
33
22
10
11/15-22/22
1
35
28
23
13
9/7-14/22
2
35
31
21
11
1/10-21/22
1
35
28
22
13
11/1-10/21
2
36
28
18
16
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?
Republican vice-presidential nominee Sen. JD Vance is seen favorably by 35% and unfavorably by 47%, with 18% saying they haven’t heard enough or don’t know. In July, he was seen favorably by 29% and unfavorably by 45%, with 25% saying they haven’t heard enough or don’t know.
Democratic vice-presidential candidate Gov. Tim Walz is seen favorably by 39% and unfavorably by 39%, while 23% haven’t heard enough about him. This is the first time favorability to Walz has been asked.
Respondents are asked how well a number of phrases describe both Harris and Trump. Trump is seen as having a stronger record of accomplishments than Harris and has a slight advantage on being a strong leader. Trump is seen as too old to be president by a majority, while few see Harris that way. Trump is also seen by more than 60% as having behaved corruptly, a phrase 38% say describes Harris.
Harris is described as sharing the respondents’ values by a slightly larger percentage than viewed Trump that way, and, by larger margins, Harris is also seen as intelligent and with the right temperament to be president compared to those who see Trump in these ways. All these perceptions are shown in Table 5.
Table 5: How well does this phrase describe Harris or Trump
Among registered voters
Candidate
How well phrase describes
Very/somewhat well
Not too/not at all well
Strong record of accomplishments
Harris
43
57
Trump
53
47
Is a strong leader
Harris
51
49
Trump
54
46
Is too old to be president
Harris
13
87
Trump
59
41
Has behaved corruptly
Harris
38
62
Trump
61
39
Shares your values
Harris
50
50
Trump
45
55
Is intelligent
Harris
62
38
Trump
50
50
Has the right temperament to be president
Harris
59
41
Trump
38
62
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Kamala Harris)(Donald Trump)?
Table 6 shows which candidate is thought to do a better job on each of eight issues. Trump is seen as better on immigration and border security, the economy, and the Israel-Hamas war, and holds a slight edge on handling foreign relations. Harris has her largest advantage on abortion policy, followed by health care, Medicare & Social Security, and ensuring fair and accurate elections.
Despite the campaign, the debate, and news coverage of the candidates, between 12% and 26% of registered voters say both candidates would be about the same or that neither would be good on each issue.
Table 6: Which candidate would do a better job on issues
Among registered voters
Issue
Who better
Harris
Trump
Both about the same
Neither good
Immigration and border security
36
51
6
6
The economy
36
51
7
5
Israel-Hamas war in Gaza
32
42
12
14
Foreign relations
41
45
7
7
Ensuring fair and accurate elections
45
33
11
10
Medicare & Social Security
46
34
13
7
Health care
48
33
11
8
Abortion policy
53
30
9
8
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Do you think Kamala Harris or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues, they are both about the same or would neither be good on the issue?
Respondents were asked which of the eight issues would be most important for deciding their vote. The economy is the top-rated issue, followed by immigration, with abortion policy the third most important issue, as shown in Table 7.
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president?
Partisans differ on the most important issues, though all rank the economy as most important. Republicans are much more likely to rank the economy and immigration as most important, while placing little weight on any of the other issues. Independents rank the economy as most important with immigration and abortion policy tied for second most important. Democrats put the economy first, followed by abortion policy, for their top concerns. Ensuring fair elections and Medicare & Social Security tied for third most important among Democrats. Only 3% of Democrats rank immigration as their top issue. The full results are shown in Table 8.
Table 8: Most important issues, by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID
Issue
The economy
Immigration and border security
Health care
Foreign relations
Abortion policy
Medicare & Social Security
The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza
Ensuring fair and accurate elections
Don’t know
Republican
50
29
2
2
4
3
2
3
4
Independent
42
9
8
3
9
6
4
0
18
Democrat
30
3
7
3
20
14
2
14
8
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Which one of the following issues will be MOST important in deciding your vote for president?
The public has on balance negative views of the economy, the direction of the country, and their personal financial situation. Views of the economy and financial situations have not changed appreciably over the past year. The economy is seen as excellent by only 4%, as good by 24%, as not so good by 42%, and as poor by 30%. The full trend since November 2023 is shown in Table 9.
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?
A substantial majority (79%) say the country is off on the wrong track, while 21% say it is headed in the right direction. Trend data for this question are not available.
Respondents’ family financial situation is virtually the same as it was a year ago: 38% say they are living comfortably, 43% say they are just getting by, and 19% say they are struggling. This trend is shown in Table 10.
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet?
Immigration and border security has consistently been the second-most important issue for voters in 2024. The details of public opinion on immigrants in the United States illegally depend a great deal on how the question is framed. In the Marquette Law School Poll’s national surveys, the issue has been asked three different ways.
In March and October, one question was worded as follows:
Which comes closest to your view about undocumented immigrants who are currently working in the U.S.? — They should be allowed to stay in their jobs and to eventually apply for U.S. citizenship — They should be allowed to stay in their jobs only as temporary guest workers but not to apply for U.S. citizenship — They should be required to leave their jobs and leave the U.S.
In the current poll, 53% favor undocumented immigrants being able to stay in jobs and eventually apply for citizenship, with 18% saying they should stay only as guest workers but not be able to apply for citizenship, and 29% saying they should leave their jobs and the country. There was an increase in support for a path to citizenship between the March and October polls, as shown in Table 11.
Table 11: Undocumented immigrants currently in U.S.
Among registered voters
Poll dates
Policy preference
They should be allowed to stay in their jobs and to eventually apply for U.S. citizenship
They should be allowed to stay in their jobs only as temporary guest workers but not to apply for U.S. citizenship
They should be required to leave their jobs and leave the U.S.
10/1-10/24
53
18
29
3/18-28/24
41
25
34
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Which comes closest to your view about undocumented immigrants who are currently working in the U.S.?
Since February, respondents were given one of two versions of a question about whether they favor deporting illegal immigrants. Support for deporting immigrants who are in the U.S. illegally, without mention of employment or length of residence, has been substantial throughout the year but has trended downward since first asked in February.
Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries?
With this wording, 58% favor deportation and 42% are opposed. When first asked in February, 68% favored deportations and 32% were opposed. The full trend is shown in Table 12.
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries?
An alternative question wording, asked since May of a different half of the respondents from those asked the previous question, includes mention of those who have lengthy residency, jobs, and no criminal record:
Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries even if they have lived here for a number of years, have jobs and no criminal record?
When worded this way, 40% favor deportations and 60% are opposed. Mention of residence, jobs, and no criminal record thus reduces support for deportations by around 20 percentage points, compared to the wording without additional description. The trend for this question, asked since May, is shown in Table 13. Support for deportations has declined over time with this wording, as well.
Table 13: Deport immigrants illegally in U.S., including long-time residents with jobs etc.
Among registered voters
Poll dates
Favor or oppose
Favor
Oppose
10/1-10/24
40
60
7/24-8/1/24
45
55
5/6-15/24
48
52
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Do you favor or oppose deporting immigrants who are living in the United States illegally back to their home countries even if they have lived here for a number of years, have jobs and no criminal record?
Abortion policy
In October, 61% oppose the 2022 Supreme Court decision overturning the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling, which had made abortion legal in all states, while 39% favor that recent decision. More than 60% have opposed the 2022 decision over the past year, as shown in Table 14.
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: [In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states.] How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
Both presidential candidates are seen as more ideologically extreme than voters see themselves. Among all registered voters, 32% describe themselves as having “moderate” political views, 16% say their views are “very conservative,” and 11% say they are “very liberal.”
Among registered voters, 19% see Harris as moderate, while 13% see Trump as moderate. Equal percentages see Trump as very conservative, 46%, and Harris as very liberal, 46%. These perceptions are shown in Table 15.
Table 15: Ideological perceptions of candidates and self
Among registered voters
Perception of
Perceived ideology
Very conservative
Somewhat conservative
Moderate
Somewhat liberal
Very liberal
Harris
4
3
19
29
46
Trump
46
34
13
3
5
Self-perception
16
25
32
16
11
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: In general, would you describe each of the following as…?
Question: Generally speaking, how would you describe your political views?
Enthusiasm about voting in November increased sharply from May to July, as shown in Table 16. It has changed little since July. In the current survey, 54% say they are very enthusiastic about voting.
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?
Enthusiasm has increased substantially among Democrats, with a small increase among Republicans. Republicans had a consistent enthusiasm advantage over Democrats in polls before July, but that has been erased now, as shown in Table 17. Independents have a quite low level of enthusiasm, and the percent of independents who said they were very enthusiastic fell from 24% in July to 16% in October.
Table 17: Enthusiasm to vote in November election, by party identification
Among registered voters
Poll dates
Enthusiasm
Very enthusiastic
Somewhat enthusiastic
Not too enthusiastic
Not at all enthusiastic
Democrat
10/1-10/24
58
25
13
5
7/24-8/1/24
55
26
15
5
5/6-15/24
34
31
24
11
3/18-28/24
35
27
31
8
2/5-15/24
34
33
25
8
11/2-7/23
36
34
23
7
Independent
10/1-10/24
16
29
31
24
7/24-8/1/24
24
21
29
26
5/6-15/24
20
15
33
32
3/18-28/24
18
30
25
26
2/5-15/24
21
32
27
20
11/2-7/23
20
36
33
10
Republican
10/1-10/24
56
24
13
7
7/24-8/1/24
58
27
11
4
5/6-15/24
55
22
16
6
3/18-28/24
43
29
21
7
2/5-15/24
52
33
12
4
11/2-7/23
54
28
16
2
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: (2024) How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?
The race is very tight among the very and somewhat enthusiastic, with a slight Harris edge. Trump has an edge among those who are not too or not at all enthusiastic, as shown in Table 18.
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between [Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democrat,] and [former President Donald Trump, the Republican,] would you vote for [Kamala Harris] or for [Donald Trump]?
Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?
Looking back at the 2020 presidential election, 60% are very or somewhat confident that votes were accurately cast and counted, while 40% are not too or not at all confident. There has been little change in these opinions since 2021, as shown in Table 19.
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: How confident are you that, across the country, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election?
Republicans remain far less confident in the accuracy of the 2020 election than are independents or Democrats, a fact that has changed little over the past four years. The results in the current poll are shown in Table 20.
Table 20: Confidence in 2020 accuracy, by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID
Confidence
Very/somewhat confident
Not too/not at all confident
Republican
33
67
Independent
57
43
Democrat
89
11
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: How confident are you that, across the country, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election?
Looking to this November’s election, 65% are very or somewhat confident that the votes will be accurately cast and counted, with 35% are not too or not at all confident in the accuracy of the voting. This is slightly more confidence than currently expressed in the 2020 election (see Table 19 above). The partisan divide is also quite substantial. Though Republicans remain skeptical, they currently express more confidence in the upcoming election than in the previous one. Table 21 shows the views about the upcoming election.
Table 21: Confidence in 2024 accuracy, by party identification
Among registered voters
Party ID
Confidence
Very/somewhat confident
Not too/not at all confident
Republican
44
56
Independent
59
41
Democrat
88
12
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: How confident are you that, across the country, the votes for president will be accurately cast and counted in the 2024 election?
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: Oct. 1-10, 2024
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?
Respondents were also asked about whether they approved of the job Trump did when he was president. In October, 50% approved and 50% disapproved. Trump’s job approval has increased slightly in the poll since May. The recent trend is shown in Table 23.
The Marquette Law School Poll found a small but consistent Trump advantage over Biden among registered voters since May 2023, while Biden had a consistent edge from November 2021 through November 2022. The race was tied in January and March 2023. The full trend, including those saying they would vote for someone else or not vote, is shown in Table 24.
Table 24: Presidential vote choice, Biden vs. Trump including someone else, Nov. 2021-July 2024
Among registered voters
Poll dates
Vote
Joe Biden
Donald Trump
Someone else
Wouldn’t vote
7/24-8/1/24
43
47
11
0
5/6-15/24
40
44
14
2
3/18-28/24
42
44
13
2
2/5-15/24
42
45
9
4
11/2-7/23
40
42
15
2
9/18-25/23
39
44
12
4
7/7-12/23
37
38
19
5
5/8-18/23
34
41
19
7
3/13-22/23
38
38
20
4
1/9-20/23
40
40
17
3
11/15-22/22
44
34
19
4
9/7-14/22
42
36
19
3
3/14-24/22
43
38
16
4
1/10-21/22
45
33
18
4
11/1-10/21
43
35
18
4
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, latest: July 24-Aug. 1, 2024
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? (Response options included someone else and wouldn’t vote)
About the Marquette Law School Poll
The survey was conducted Oct. 1-10, 2024, interviewing 886 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 699, with a margin of error of +/-4.7 percentage points.
Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. Certain other data from this survey (focusing on those about public views of the Supreme Court) are held for release on Oct. 17. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law School Poll website.
