MILWAUKEE — A new Marquette Law School poll of Wisconsin registered voters finds 61
percent saying Iran and the United States are likely to avoid a major military
conflict following the U.S. drone attack that killed an Iranian general and an
Iranian missile attack on bases in Iraq where U.S. troops are stationed. Thirty
percent believe that a major military conflict is likely and 8 percent say they
don’t know.
Forty-three
percent agree with the statement, “It’s about time that the U.S. struck back
against Iran,” while 51 percent disagree and 5 percent say they don’t know.
In the
wake of the military exchange between the United States and Iran, 44 percent
approve of President Donald J. Trump’s handling of foreign policy and 53
percent disapprove, with 2 percent saying they don’t know. In December, 43
percent approved and 54 percent disapproved.
The trend in opinion of Trump’s foreign policy is shown in Table 1.
The poll
was conducted Jan. 8-12, 2020. The sample included 800 registered voters in
Wisconsin interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/-
4.1 percentage points.
Democratic
presidential primary preference items were asked of those who said they will
vote in the Democratic primary in April. That sample size is 358, with a margin
of error of +/- 6.3 percentage points.
Democratic presidential primary
candidates
With less
than a month remaining until the Iowa caucuses, the top four Democratic primary
candidates in Wisconsin remain former Vice President Joe Biden, Sen. Bernie
Sanders, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Elizabeth Warren. Among those who say
they will vote in the Democratic presidential primary in April, Biden is the
first choice of 23 percent, followed by Sanders at 19 percent, Buttigieg at 15
percent, and Warren at 14 percent. Michael Bloomberg and Andrew Yang are the
first choice of 6 percent each.
The complete results for the Democratic primary are shown in Table 2.
Three-fifths
of Democratic primary voters, 60 percent, say they might change their minds
about their primary choice, while 38 percent say their minds are made up.
Among the Democratic primary sample, favorability of candidates is shown in Table 3.
General election matchups
General
election matchups between Trump and four Democratic candidates all indicate
very close races.
A summary of the general election results for January is shown in Table 4. For comparison, the December results are shown in Table 5 and the November results in Table 6.
Trump Job Approval
Forty-eight
percent approve of the job Trump is doing as president, with 49 percent
disapproving. That is little changed from December, when 47 percent approved
and 50 percent disapproved. This is the first time Trump’s disapproval has
fallen below 50 percent in the Marquette Law School Poll since March 2017 when
47 percent disapproved.
Trump’s job approval trend is shown in Table 7.
Trump’s job approval is high among Republicans, is low among Democrats, and is split among independents as shown in Table 8.
Fifty-five
percent of those polled approve of Trump’s handling of the economy, while 42
percent disapprove. In December, 53 percent approved and 45 percent
disapproved.
The trend in approval or disapproval of Trump’s handling of the economy is shown in table 9.
Opinions about impeachment
Views
about Trump’s actions regarding Ukraine also changed very little following
public testimony and the vote by the U.S. House of Representatives in favor of impeachment.
Forty
percent say that Trump did something seriously wrong in his dealings with
Ukraine, 14 percent say he did something wrong but not seriously so, and 37
percent say Trump did nothing wrong. Nine percent say they don’t know. In
December, 42 percent said he did something seriously wrong, 9 percent said it
was wrong but not serious, and 37 percent said he did nothing wrong.
The trend in views of Trump’s dealing with Ukraine is shown in Table 10.
Forty-seven
percent approve of the House of Representatives’ vote to impeach Trump, while
49 percent disapprove and 3 percent say they don’t know.
Asked
about the upcoming Senate trial, 44 percent say the Senate should convict Trump
and remove him from office, while 49 percent say the Senate should acquit him
of the charges. Six percent say they don’t know.
In
December, prior to the House impeachment vote, a different question asked if
Trump should be impeached and removed from office or not. Forty percent said he
should be impeached and removed, 52 percent said he should not be, and 6
percent said they did not know.
National policy issues
Just over
four in 10 respondents, 41 percent, say that global warming will cause a great
deal of harm to people in the United States, with 21 percent saying it will
cause a moderate amount of harm. Sixteen percent say it will cause only a
little harm and 19 percent say it will cause no harm at all, while 2 percent
say they don’t know.
Thirty-five
percent say that the number of legal immigrants into the United States should
be increased, 41 percent say it should remain the same and 20 percent say it
should be reduced. Four percent say they don’t know.
Over one-third of respondents, 37 percent, say that tariffs hurt the U.S. economy, while 32 percent say tariffs help the economy, 24 percent say they don’t make any difference, and 7 percent say they don’t know. The trend in views of tariffs is shown in Table 11.
Twenty-six
percent believe the U.S. and North Korea will reach an agreement on reducing
nuclear weapons in the next year or two, with 65 percent saying they don’t
think an agreement will be reached and 9 percent saying they don’t know. In
October, 24 percent thought an agreement would be reached and 66 percent
thought it would not.
Cynicism about government
Almost half, 48 percent, strongly agree that the government is run by a few big interests and 32 percent say they somewhat agree. Thirteen percent somewhat disagree and 6 strongly disagree. The trend in this view of the government is shown in Table 12.
About two-thirds, 64 percent, strongly agree that the government wastes a lot of money collected in taxes, with 24 percent somewhat agreeing, 8 percent somewhat disagreeing, and 2 percent strongly disagreeing. The trend in this question is shown in Table 13.
More than half of respondents say you can’t trust the government to do what is right, with 26 percent saying they strongly agree and 38 percent saying they somewhat agree. Twenty-three percent say they somewhat disagree and 9 percent strongly disagree. The trend for this question is shown in Table 14.
Asked about the FBI, 33 percent say they have a great deal of confidence in the FBI, 39 percent have some confidence, 18 percent have only a little, and 8 percent say they have no confidence at all. This trend is shown in Table 15.
Racial prejudice
One-third
of respondents, 34 percent, say that racial prejudice against black people is a
very serious problem, with 38 percent saying it is somewhat serious. Seventeen
percent say it is a not so serious problem and 9 percent say it is not a
problem at all.
Prejudice
against Hispanic or Latino people is seen as a very serious problem by 29
percent, as a somewhat serious problem by 36 percent, as a not so serious
problem by 19 percent, and as not a problem at all by 12 percent.
State issues
Thirty-five percent say that Foxconn will be worth the money the state provides in incentives to the company, while 46 percent say the state is paying more than the plant is worth and 19 percent say they don’t know. There have been only modest shifts in views of Foxconn since the project was announced, as shown in Table 16.
A majority of respondents are very satisfied (15 percent) or satisfied (44 percent) with the public schools in their community, while 22 percent say they are dissatisfied and 11 percent are very dissatisfied. The percentage of those very satisfied has declined from 23 percent in 2012, while those dissatisfied have increased from 17 percent, as shown in Table 17.
More than half, 55 percent, say it is more important to increase spending on public schools than it is to reduce property taxes, while 41 percent say reducing property taxes is more important. Since 2013, support for increased school spending peaked in early 2018, while support for cutting property taxes was at its height in early 2013, as shown in Table 18.
Over
two-thirds of respondents, 70 percent, favor “Wisconsin’s current law allowing
residents to obtain a license to carry concealed handguns,” while 25 percent
oppose it. When previously asked in January 2016, 63 percent favored and 31
percent opposed the law.
In 2012, shortly after the state’s current law went into effect in late 2011, a question with a different wording showed a much more narrow division. That question asked, “Do you favor or oppose legalizing possession of concealed weapons?” Responses to that question are shown in Table 19.
Economic outlook and issues
Wisconsin registered voters hold a positive view of the performance of the economy over the past 12 months, with 48 percent saying the economy has improved over the past year, 17 percent saying it has worsened, and 33 percent saying it has stayed the same. The trend in economic evaluations of the past year is shown in Table 20.
Looking ahead to the next year, 33 percent say the economy will improve, while 23 percent think it will get worse and 37 percent say the economy will remain the same. The trend in economic outlook is shown in Table 21.
Evaluation of state elected
officials
Gov. Tony
Evers’ job approval stands at 51 percent, with disapproval at 40 percent. Nine percent
say they don’t have an opinion. In December, 50 percent approved, while 38
percent disapproved. The trend in job approval of the governor is shown in
Table 22.
In January, 46 percent say the state is headed in the right direction, while 47 percent say it has gotten off on the wrong track. This is a shift from 2019 when a majority said the state was headed in the right direction, as shown in Table 23.
Table 24 presents the favorability ratings of elected officials in Wisconsin and the percentage of respondents who haven’t heard enough or say they don’t know.
About the Marquette Law School Poll
The
Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in
Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 800 registered Wisconsin voters by
landline or cell phone Jan. 8-12, 2020. The margin of error is +/-4.1
percentage points for the full sample.
The Democratic
presidential candidate preference items were asked of Democrats, independents
who lean Democratic, and independents who do not lean to either party. That
sample size is 358 with a margin of error of +/- 6.3 percentage points.
Four
questions were asked of half the sample (Form A) and four were asked of the
other half-sample (Form B). Questions on Form A have a sample size of 400 and a
margin of error of +/- 5.7 percentage points. Questions on Form B have a sample
size of 400 and a margin of error of +/- 5.8 percentage points.
Form A
questions were right direction or wrong track for the state, satisfaction with
public schools, concealed carry, and Foxconn. Form B questions were the effect
of global warming, legal immigration, the effect of tariffs on the economy, and
whether the United States and North Korea will agree to limits on nuclear arms.
The
partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 47
percent Republican, 43 percent Democratic and 9 percent independent. The partisan
makeup of the sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 28 percent
Republican, 26 percent Democratic, and 44 percent independent.
Since
January 2017, the long-term partisan balance, including those who lean to a
party, in the Marquette Law School Poll has been 45 percent Republican and 44
percent Democratic, with 9 percent independent. Partisanship, excluding those
who lean, has been 30 percent Republican and 28 percent Democratic, with 41
percent independent.
The
entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by
demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.