Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin voters finds Gov. Evers approval up, GOP presidential primary razor thin between Trump and DeSantis, and Biden with bigger lead over Trump than over DeSantis

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette University Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin voters finds 57% approve of the job Gov. Tony Evers is doing as governor and 39% disapprove. In October 2022, 46% approved and 47% disapproved. Despite the governor’s approval, 57% think the state is on the wrong track, while 40% say it is headed in the right direction—a minimal change from the October survey.

Other headlines

  • Among Republicans and independents who lean Republican, the GOP presidential primary is a near-even divide, with 31% supporting former President Donald Trump and 30% supporting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Former Vice President Mike Pence is the choice of 6% and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott receives 5%.
  • If the election were held today and DeSantis were the GOP nominee against Biden, it would be a very close race, with 49% for Biden, 47% for DeSantis, and 4% declining to choose. Biden has a materially larger lead over Trump in a hypothetical matchup, with 52% for Biden to Trump’s 43% and 4% undecided.

The survey was conducted June 8-13, 2023, interviewing 913 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points. The sample includes 419 Republicans and independents who lean Republican and were asked about their preferences in the Republican presidential primary, with a margin of error of +/-6.5 percentage points. The Democratic primary preference was asked of 453 Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, with a margin of error of +/-6 percentage points.

State approval

Table 1 shows approval of Governor Evers by partisanship in the current poll and, for comparison, in October 2022. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: Evers approval, by party identification

(a) June 2023

Party IDApproveDisapproveDon’t knowRefused
Republican177940
Independent603550
Democrat93411

(b) October 2022

Party IDApproveDisapproveDon’t knowRefused
Republican59040
Independent444583
Democrat94230

Among registered voters, 57% think the state is on the wrong track, while 40% say it is headed in the right direction. In October 2022, 58% said the state was on the wrong track and 34% said it was moving in the right direction. Partisan differences on this question are shown in Table 2. Opinion is slightly less polarized by party in June than was the case on the eve of the 2022 election.

Table 2: Wisconsin headed in right direction or wrong track, by party identification

(a) June 2023

Party IDRight directionWrong trackDon’t knowRefused
Republican237700
Independent445330
Democrat534340

(b) October 2022

Party IDRight directionWrong trackDon’t knowRefused
Republican128441
Independent345970
Democrat5728133

Voters remain negative about how government in Wisconsin is working, with 64% saying it is “broken” and 32% saying it is working as intended. Unlike many measures of political opinion, there is very little difference by partisanship in this view, as shown in Table 3, with about two-thirds of each partisan group saying government is broken.

 

Table 3: Wisconsin government working as intended or broken, by party identification

Party IDWorking as intendedIs brokenDon’t knowRefused
Republican306820
Independent346421
Democrat316450

Biden approval

Approval of how Joe Biden is handling his job as president is 45%, with disapproval at 53%. In October 2022, 41% approved and 54% disapproved. Table 4 shows approval remains highly polarized by party, with independents becoming somewhat more approving of Biden since October.

Table 4: Biden approval by party identification

(a) June 2023

Party IDApproveDisapproveDon’t knowRefused
Republican19710
Independent465210
Democrat89911

(b) October 2022

Party IDApproveDisapproveDon’t knowRefused
Republican39620
Independent365672
Democrat90910

Presidential primary outlook

Among Republicans and independents who lean Republican, the GOP presidential primary is a near-even divide, with 31% supporting former President Donald Trump and 30% supporting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Former Vice President Mike Pence is the choice of 6% and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott receives 5%. The full list of candidates is shown in Table 5. A substantial 21% say they have not decided whom to support.

 

Table 5: Republican presidential primary preferences, among Republicans and independents who lean Republican (* = less than 0.5%)

ResponsePercent
Donald Trump31
Ron DeSantis30
Mike Pence6
Tim Scott5
Nikki Haley3
Vivek Ramaswamy3
Chris Christie1
Asa Hutchinson*
Larry Elder*
Doug Burgum0
Haven’t decided21

When Republicans were asked whom they would pick if the choice were only between Trump and DeSantis, DeSantis is the choice of 57% and Trump is the pick of 41%. Table 6 shows how preferences divide when respondents are limited to only Trump and DeSantis. When forced to choose, those whose first choice is someone other than DeSantis or Trump pick DeSantis by 74% to Trump’s 25%. Among those who said they were undecided among the full slate (Table 5), 65% choose DeSantis and 28% choose Trump, while 7% continue to not choose.

Table 6: Choice of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents when limited to picking Trump or DeSantis

GOP 1st choiceDonald TrumpRon DeSantisDon’t know
DeSantis1981
Trump9820
Other candidate25741
Undecided28657

The survey asked favorability of DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Pence, and Trump. Among Republicans and independents who lean Republicans, the results are shown in Table 7. Trump and DeSantis have nearly equal favorability ratings, but DeSantis has a better (lower) unfavorable rating and more responses of “haven’t heard enough.” Pence is better known than DeSantis or Haley, and all candidates are viewed more favorably than unfavorably among GOP voters.

 

Table 7: Favorability ratings, among Republicans and independents who lean Republican

CandidateFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enoughDon’t know/refused
Trump683021
DeSantis6714200
Pence5234132
Haley3810475

Among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, Biden is the first choice of 49%, followed by 9% who prefer Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and 3% who choose Marianne Williamson. A sizable 39% say they are undecided.

While many Democratic voters say they are undecided, Biden’s favorability rating is 83%, and his unfavorability is 15%, among all Democrats and independents who lean Democratic. Table 8 shows Biden favorability by choice of primary candidate. He is rated more favorably than unfavorably even among those supporting Kennedy or Williamson and among those who are undecided.

Table 8: Biden favorability, by first choice in primary, among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic

First choiceFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
Biden9721
Kennedy or Williamson60391
Undecided73244

2024 general election

If the election were held today and DeSantis were the GOP nominee against Biden, it would be a very close race in Wisconsin, with 49% for Biden, 47% for DeSantis, and 4% declining to choose. These responses include those initially undecided who were then asked “if you had to choose.”

Biden has a larger lead over Trump in a similar hypothetical matchup, with 52% for Biden to Trump’s 43% and 4% undecided. These responses, too, include those who were initially undecided but were then asked “if you had to choose.”

Table 9 shows the breakdown of vote choices by party identification. Republicans are virtually equal in their support of either DeSantis or Trump. Independents prefer Biden over DeSantis, but Biden does even better among independents when Trump is the nominee.

Table 9: General-election vote, by party identification

(a) DeSantis vs. Biden

Party IDRon DeSantisJoe BidenHaven’t decidedDon’t know/Refused
Republican94221
Independent445223
Democrat39421

(b) Trump vs. Biden

Party IDDonald TrumpJoe BidenHaven’t decidedDon’t know/Refused
Republican93510
Independent385643
Democrat29711

Favorability for Wisconsin political figures

Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who is up for reelection in 2024, is viewed favorably by 40% and unfavorably by 37%, while 22% say they haven’t heard enough to have an opinion. In October 2022, she was seen favorably by 37% and unfavorably by 37%, with 17% saying they didn’t know enough. Table 10 shows her favorability by party identification.

Table 10: Baldwin favorability, by party identification

Party IDFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
Republican97515
Independent373429
Democrat76419

Potential Republican opponents to Baldwin have yet to declare their intention to run. The survey asked about Rep. Tom Tiffany, Madison businessman Eric Hovde, and former Milwaukee Sheriff David Clarke. The poll also asked about Rep. Mike Gallagher, who stated while polling was underway that he would not be a candidate.

None of these candidates is as well-known as Baldwin, which is not surprising at this stage of a race. Even sitting members of Congress are not well known outside their districts. Table 11 shows the favorability ratings of these four Republican figures, first among all registered voters and then among Republicans and independents who lean Republican. Clarke is the best known of the four, while Hovde is least known. Hovde ran in the GOP Senate primary in 2012. None of the four is substantially better known among Republicans (including leaners) than in the larger electorate, but they are all viewed more favorably in their party (including leaners) among those who say they have heard enough to have an opinion than they are in the comparable group in the larger electorate.

Table 11: Favorability ratings of possible GOP Senate candidates

(a) Among all registered voters

CandidateFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
Tom Tiffany121373
Mike Gallagher151171
Eric Hovde4885
David Clarke252350

(b) Among Republicans and independents who lean Republican

CandidateFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
Tom Tiffany22473
Mike Gallagher27270
Eric Hovde7784
David Clarke48842

Sen. Ron Johnson, who won reelection to a third term in November 2022, is seen favorably by 37% and unfavorably by 50%, with 12% saying they haven’t heard enough about him. In October 2022, just before the election, Johnson was rated favorably by 43% and unfavorably by 46%, with 7% not having heard enough. Table 12 shows Johnson’s current favorability by party identification.

Table 12: Johnson favorability, by party identification

Party IDFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
Republican8298
Independent295317
Democrat3877

Policy issues

There has been modest change in views of abortion policy since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022, as shown in Table 13. There have been a slight increase in the percent saying abortion should be legal in all cases and a similar decline in the percent saying it should be illegal in all cases. In the current survey, 66% say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, and 31% say it should be illegal in all or most cases.

 

Table 13: Abortion policy trend, June 2022-June 2023

Poll datesLegal in all casesLegal in most casesIllegal in most casesIllegal in all casesDon’t knowRefused
6/14-20/222731241152
8/10-15/22303525531
6/8-13/23323425611

Similarly, 64% say they oppose the U.S. Supreme Court decision overturning Roe, while 31% favor that decision. Table 14 shows the breakdown by party identification. A majority of Republicans favor the Court’s decision, while a majority of independents and a large majority of Democrats oppose the ruling.

Table 14: Favor or oppose overturning Roe v. Wade, by party identification

Party IDFavorOppose
Republican6333
Independent2769
Democrat592

The Wisconsin legislature approved and Evers signed a bill to increase state aid to counties and municipalities, which is known as shared revenue. A majority of registered voters, 70%, support increasing such aid, while 20% are opposed to an increase. Table 15 shows support by party identification, with a majority of each partisan group favoring an increase.

Table 15: Favor or oppose increasing shared revenue, by party identification

Party IDFavorOpposeDon’t know
Republican53398
Independent73179
Democrat8568

Support for increasing shared revenue is high across the regions of the state, and especially so in Milwaukee County, as shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Favor or oppose increasing shared revenue, by region

RegionFavorOpposeDon’t know
Milwaukee County (includes city)78184
Rest of Milwaukee media market64278
Madison media market721611
Green Bay media market71207
Rest of north & west of state711810

The public is divided over giving cities and counties the ability to increase sales taxes to support local government programs. Forty-three percent favor allowing such tax increases, while 53% are opposed. As shown in Table 17, the regional differences are notable on this policy, which is directed to the City of Milwaukee and to Milwaukee County. A slight majority of respondents in Milwaukee County (as always, including the city) favor allowing a sales tax increase, but the sample size is small, 120 respondents, with a correspondingly large margin of error of +/-11.7 percentage points.

Table 17: Favor or oppose allowing sales tax increase, by region

RegionFavorOpposeDon’t know
Milwaukee County (includes city)52480
Rest of Milwaukee media market36594
Madison media market56375
Green Bay media market41572
Rest of north & west of state35603

More registered voters say they prefer to reduce property taxes, 50%, than say they would like to increase spending on public schools, 47%. Since 2018, the percent more concerned about taxes has moved up while those favoring school spending has declined. The full trend on this question since 2013 is shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Which is more important, reducing property taxes or increasing public school spending

Poll datesReducing property taxesIncreasing spending on public schoolsDon’t know
3/11-13/1349464
5/6-9/1349464
4/7-10/1540545
2/25-3/1/1833633
6/13-17/1835595
8/15-19/1832615
9/12-16/1838575
10/3-7/1837576
10/24-28/1840554
1/16-20/1939556
1/8-12/2041554
2/19-23/2038565
8/3-8/2142525
4/19-24/2246504
8/10-15/2243525
9/6-11/2241515
10/3-9/2242525
10/24-11/1/2246485
6/8-13/2350473

Satisfaction with public schools in the community is shown in Table 19. About two-thirds say they are very satisfied or satisfied, while 31% are dissatisfied or very dissatisfied.

Table 19: Satisfaction with public schools in your community

Poll datesVery satisfiedSatisfiedDissatisfiedVery dissatisfiedDon’t know
4/26-29/12234317104
5/9-12/1223441875
5/23-26/1223481774
4/7-10/1525501652
3/13-16/1725491464
9/12-16/1818461786
1/8-12/20154422116
8/3-8/2122471567
10/26-31/21253518138
4/19-24/22164719134
9/6-11/22194320117
6/8-13/2313532382

A majority, 54%, favor allowing all students statewide to use publicly funded vouchers to attend private or religious schools, while 44% are opposed to this. Support for vouchers varies by region of the state, but the Madison media market is the only area without a majority in favor, as shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Support or oppose vouchers, by region

RegionFavorOpposeDon’t know
Milwaukee County59410
Rest of Milwaukee media market62352
Madison media market36621
Green Bay media market50482
Rest of north & west of state59401

While a majority support vouchers, when asked if it were a choice between increasing state support for students to attend private schools and increasing support for public schools, a majority, 71%, favor increased support for public schools, while 28% prefer increasing support for attending private schools. On this choice, majorities in each region of the state prefer support for public schools, as shown in Table 21.

 

Table 21: Increase state support for private or public schools, by region

RegionPrivate schoolsPublic schools
Milwaukee County2674
Rest of Milwaukee media market3267
Madison media market2574
Green Bay media market2574
Rest of north & west of state3068

About half of registered voters say they are very concerned (22%) or somewhat concerned (29%) about the safety of the water supply in their community, while 31% are not too concerned and 19% are not at all concerned. Concern is highest in Milwaukee County, and lowest in the Madison media market, shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Concern about safety of water supply, by region

RegionVery concernedSomewhat concernedNot too concernedNot at all concerned
Milwaukee County2632348
Rest of Milwaukee media market20283121
Madison media market16273720
Green Bay media market25312816
Rest of north & west of state24262723

Somewhat higher percentages are concerned about long-lasting chemicals, known as PFAS, contaminating their drinking water, with 34% very concerned, 35% somewhat concerned, 19% not too concerned, and 9% not at all concerned. Concern specifically about PFAS is higher in each region, as shown in Table 23, than general concern about safety of the water supply (Table 22).

Table 23: Concern about PFAS contamination of drinking water, by region

RegionVery concernedSomewhat concernedNot too concernedNot at all concerned
Milwaukee County3839185
Rest of Milwaukee media market3429269
Madison media market3534207
Green Bay media market29431210
Rest of north & west of state34331713

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. The survey was conducted June 8-13, 2023, interviewing 913 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points. The sample includes 419 Republicans and independents who lean Republican who were asked about their preferences in the Republican presidential primary, with a margin of error of +/-6.5 percentage points. The Democratic primary preference was asked of 453 Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, with a margin of error of +/-6 percentage points.

The survey was conducted with a hybrid sample of 715 respondents selected from the Wisconsin voter registration list and 198 selected from the SSRS Opinion Panel, the latter group drawn from postal addresses across the state and invited to take part in surveys online. The interview was conducted online with 666 respondents and by telephone with a live interviewer with 247 respondents. Full details of the methodology are contained in the methodology statement at the link below.

The partisan makeup of the sample is 29% Republican, 28% Democratic, and 41% independent. Since January 2020, the long-term partisan balance has been 30% Republican and 28% Democratic, with 41% independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results, and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.

New Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds Trump and DeSantis leading Biden in head-to-head matches, DeSantis losing ground to Trump in primary, majorities having unfavorable views of all three, and a majority of Democrats continuing to disfavor a Biden run

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds that, as the race for president in 2024 now stands, Democratic President Joe Biden trails Republican former President Donald Trump by 5 percentage points among registered voters, with 52% for Trump and 47% for Biden. Biden also trails Republican Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis by 4 percentage points, with 52% for DeSantis and 48% for Biden.

Many voters demonstrate reluctance to choose between either pair of candidates. When voters are given the choice of Biden, Trump, someone else, or not voting, 34% say Biden, 41% say Trump, 19% say someone else, and 7% say they won’t vote. When voters are given the same choices involving Biden and DeSantis, 37% say Biden, 38% say DeSantis, 18% say someone else, and 7% say they won’t vote.

This means that, with the options to vote for someone else or not to vote included in the question, 26% avoid choosing between Biden and Trump and 25% avoid picking Biden or DeSantis. In both matchups, the fact of relatively high percentages saying they would vote for “someone else” or would not vote indicates the potential for volatility in coming months as candidate choices are clarified.

Just among those who initially avoid choosing between Biden and Trump, when they are asked whom they would choose if they had to choose, 51% prefer Biden and 47% pick Trump. Just among those reluctant to choose between Biden and DeSantis, when pushed to make a choice, 42% support Biden and 58% back DeSantis.

The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s national survey was conducted May 8-18, 2023. The survey interviewed 1,010 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points. The sample includes 833 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.1 percentage points. The sample size for registered Republican primary voters is 377, with a margin of error of +/-6.1 percentage points. The sample size for registered Democratic primary voters is 344, with a margin of error of +/-6.3 percentage points. In the May poll, primary voters are those who say they will vote in each party’s primary. In earlier surveys, registered voters who identified with a party or are independents who leaned to a party were asked the primary-vote questions. For simplicity hereafter, these are referred to simply as registered Republican or Democratic voters.

Both Biden and Trump are seen more unfavorably than favorably among registered voters nationwide, with Biden at 37% favorable and 60% unfavorable. Trump is seen favorably by 38% and unfavorably by 59%. While Biden and Trump are virtually universally familiar to voters, 23% say they haven’t heard enough to give a favorability rating for DeSantis, who is viewed favorably by 30% and unfavorably by 47%.

Partisans are quite positive toward their party’s candidates and very negative to the other party’s candidates. Independents regard all three candidates more unfavorably than favorably. Table 1 shows the favorability to Biden, Trump, and DeSantis, by party.

Table 1: Favorability to Biden, Trump, and DeSantis, by party identification, among registered voters

(a) Biden

Party IDFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Republican5941
Independent226612
Democrat77212

(b) Trump

Party IDFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Republican72262
Independent20738
Democrat8911

(c) DeSantis

Party IDFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Republican581626
Independent184437
Democrat38116

Republican primary choices

Trump leads among registered Republican voters, drawing support from 46%, with DeSantis the choice of 25%. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley receives 5%, businessperson Vivek Ramaswamy is the choice of 3%, and former Vice President Mike Pence is supported by 2%. South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott receives 1%, as do talk radio host Larry Elder and New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu. Former governors Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson received less than .5% support, while 16% said they were undecided. Table 2 shows the full results.

 

Table 2: Here are some potential candidates for the Republican presidential nomination. If the primary were today, who would you vote for? Among registered Republican voters.

CandidatePercent
Donald Trump46
Ron DeSantis25
Nikki Haley5
Vivek Ramaswamy3
Mike Pence2
Tim Scott1
Larry Elder1
Chris Sununu1
Chris Christie*
Asa Hutchinson*
Undecided16
*=less than .5% 

In the March 2023 Marquette poll, Trump was supported by 40% and DeSantis was the choice of 35%, while Pence was the choice of 5% in that survey.

When asked to choose between only Trump and DeSantis, Trump is the choice of 52% and DeSantis is the choice of 48%. Trump has gained support since November while DeSantis has lost support. The trend is shown in Table 3.

Table 3: If it were a choice between just the two of them, who would you prefer as the Republican nominee for president in 2024: Donald Trump or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis? Among registered Republican voters.

Poll datesDonald TrumpRon DeSantis
11/15-22/224060
1/9-20/233664
3/13-22/234654
5/8-18/235248

When asked to choose between only Trump and DeSantis, DeSantis picks up 70% or more of the support of those who had previously chosen a candidate other than DeSantis or Trump or were undecided in the multi-candidate question. A handful of respondents shift away from their first choice of Trump or DeSantis in the subsequent two-candidate question.

Table 4: Choice between Trump or DeSantis only, by first choice in multi-candidate question, among registered Republican voters

Multi-candidate choiceDonald TrumpRon DeSantis
Trump964
DeSantis298
Other candidate2377
Undecided3070

Republican support for a Trump candidacy rose in May to 62%, while 38% would not like him to run. In January, 52% wanted him to run. The full trend is shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Would you like to see Donald Trump run for president in 2024, or not? Among registered Republican voters.

Poll datesYesNo
11/1-10/216040
1/10-21/225644
3/14-24/226139
5/9-19/226138
7/5-12/226435
9/7-14/226040
11/15-22/225545
1/9-20/235248
5/8-18/236238

Trump’s favorability rating among Republican voters rose in May to 72%, up from 66% in March. The full trend is shown in Table 6.

 

Table 6: Trump favorability trend, among registered Republican voters.

Poll datesFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
11/1-10/2170291
1/10-21/2271281
3/14-24/2275231
5/9-19/2275222
7/5-12/2276222
9/7-14/2274251
11/15-22/2267321
1/9-20/2370282
3/13-22/2366312
5/8-18/2372262

DeSantis’ favorable rating has declined among Republican voters from a high of 71% in January to 56% in the May poll. This reversed a year of steadily rising favorability in 2022, as shown in Table 7.

Table 7: DeSantis favorability trend, among registered Republican voters.

Poll datesFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
1/10-21/2257934
3/14-24/2257735
5/9-19/22581527
7/5-12/2262929
9/7-14/22651025
11/15-22/22681022
1/9-20/23711019
3/13-22/23691515
5/8-18/23562024

DeSantis is viewed favorably by Republicans who are also favorable toward Trump, but this has fallen to 64% in May from 80% in March. His favorability among those unfavorable to Trump has also declined. Table 8 shows favorability to DeSantis by favorability to Trump in May and in March.

Table 8: DeSantis favorability, by Trump favorability, among registered Republican voters.

(a) May 2023

Trump favorabilityFavorable opinion of DeSantisUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Favorable opinion641520
Unfavorable opinion373330

(b) March 2023

Trump favorabilityFavorable opinion of DeSantisUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Favorable opinion80812
Unfavorable opinion513217

Favorability toward potential GOP candidates

While Trump is nearly universally known, and former Vice President Mike Pence and DeSantis are fairly well known, most other potential Republican candidates are far less familiar to Republican voters. Table 9 shows the favorable, unfavorable, and haven’t-heard-enough responses to eight current or potential candidates.

Table 9: Favorability ratings of potential Republican candidates, among registered Republican voters

NameNet favorableFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Trump4672262
Pence5474211
DeSantis36562024
Christie-22184042
Haley18351747
Scott15281359
Elder13251264
Ramaswamy8201268
Sununu-6101674
Hutchinson-1171875

Democratic nomination

Among registered Democrats, Biden leads the presidential primary field with support of 53%. He is followed by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 12% and Marianne Williamson with 7% support, while 28% say they are undecided. This is the first time this question has been asked in the Marquette Law School Poll.

While Biden’s lead is substantial, a majority of registered Democrats wish he would not run in 2024. In May, 57% say they would not like him to run, while 43% would like him to do so. Biden leads in the primary field even among those who don’t wish him to run, but over 40% of this group say they are undecided, as shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Democratic primary choice, by wish Biden to run in 2024, among registered Democratic voters,

Biden runJoe BidenRobert F. Kennedy, Jr.Marianne WilliamsonUndecided
Yes826111
No30171242

The trend in support for a Biden candidacy among Democrats is shown in Table 11.

Table 11: Would you like to see Joe Biden run for president in 2024, or not? Among registered Democratic voters.

Poll datesYesNo
9/7-14/224456
11/15-22/224951
1/9-20/234951
3/13-22/234357
5/8-18/234357

Those Democrats reluctant to see Biden run are nonetheless strongly supportive of him over Trump in the November election, as shown in Table 12 (a). For comparison, vote choice is also shown among Republicans for those who wish Trump would or would not run in Table 12 (b). Both candidates suffer modest crossover losses among their partisans reluctant for them to run.

Table 12: Vote choice, by whether voters want to see Biden or Trump to run, among registered Democratic voters or among registered Republican voters.

(a) Vote by want Biden to run, among registered Democratic voters.

Biden runDonald TrumpJoe Biden
Yes397
No1585

(b) Vote by want Trump to run, among registered Republican voters.

Trump runDonald TrumpJoe Biden
Yes991
No8018

Favorability ratings for the three Democratic candidates and Vice President Kamala Harris are shown in Table 13.

 

Table 13: Favorability ratings of Democratic candidates, plus Kamala Harris, among registered Democratic voters.

NameNet favorableFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Biden5476223
Harris4468248
Kennedy-5293437
Williamson-9101970

Presidential approval

Among all adult respondents, approval of Joe Biden’s handling of his job as president held even from March to May at 39%, with 61% disapproving. Biden’s approval in May is the second lowest of his presidency in the Marquette poll. The full trend for Biden approval in Marquette Law School Poll national surveys is shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Biden job approval, among all adults

Poll datesApproveDisapprove
7/16-26/215842
9/7-16/214852
11/1-10/214951
1/10-21/224653
3/14-24/224455
5/9-19/224257
7/5-12/223664
9/7-14/224555
11/15-22/224555
1/9-20/234356
3/13-22/233961
5/8-18/233961

Attention to recent news

Donald Trump’s indictment in New York topped news stories getting the most attention in recent weeks. Sixty-six percent of those polled said they had read or heard a lot about the indictment, while 29% heard a little and 5% heard nothing at all about this.

The second most attention was paid to the trial in a civil lawsuit against Trump over sexual assault and defamation, a case Trump lost as the survey began. Fifty-one percent said they had heard a lot about this, 37% had heard a little, and 12% had heard nothing at all.

A bit less noticed were news stories of shootings involving knocking on the wrong door and driving into the wrong driveway, about which 45% heard a lot, 37% heard a little, and 18% heard nothing at all.

A slightly smaller total, 42%, said they had heard a lot about DeSantis signing a Florida law banning abortions after six weeks of pregnancy, with 40% saying they had heard a little and 17% having heard nothing at all.

Policy issues

Abortion

Opinion about abortion policy has fluctuated only slightly since May 2022, as shown in Table 15. Currently, 68% say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 32% say it should be illegal in all or most cases.

Table 15: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases? Among all adults.

Poll datesLegal in all casesLegal in most casesIllegal in most casesIllegal in all cases
5/9-19/222938248
7/5-12/222836278
9/7-14/223137266
11/15-22/222936269
1/9-20/232638288
3/13-22/232839276
5/8-18/233236257

As states have adopted widely varying laws concerning abortion following the Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling, public opinion has strongly favored allowing abortion in cases of rape or incest, with 89% in favor and 11% opposed. Opinion on this has remained stable since September 2022, as shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Do you think your state should or should not allow a woman to obtain a legal abortion if she became pregnant as the result of rape or incest? Among all adults.

Poll datesShould allowShould not allow
9/7-14/229010
3/13-22/238811
5/8-18/238911

A large majority, 75%, oppose states making it illegal for a woman to get and fill prescriptions for medication from out-of-state providers to induce an abortion, while 25% favor making this illegal; the trend is shown in Table 17.

 

Table 17: Should a state be able to make it illegal for a woman to get and fill a prescription from out-of-state providers for medication that will induce an abortion, sometimes called “medication abortion” or “abortion pills”? Among all adults.

Poll datesYesNo
7/5-12/222673
9/7-14/222376
3/13-22/232674
5/8-18/232575

The public is opposed to restrictions on travel to another state to obtain an abortion, with 80% saying states should not be able to make such travel illegal and 20% saying states should be able to ban out-of-state travel for abortions. The trend on this item is shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Should a state be able to make it illegal for a woman to have an abortion by traveling to a different state where abortion is legal? Among all adults.

Poll datesYesNo
5/9-19/222278
7/5-12/222178
9/7-14/221882
3/13-22/231981
5/8-18/232080

The public remains divided over policy views about when during a pregnancy abortions should be banned.

Policy preferences are sensitive to the specific limitations proposed on abortion. Several state legislatures have enacted or debated laws that would ban abortions (with some exceptions) at various stages of pregnancy. The May survey asked a series of questions about support or opposition to bans reflecting these state proposals. Each question included an exception for “medical emergencies.”

The question asked:

“Here are some limits on when during pregnancy an abortion might be banned, except in cases of medical emergencies, that some states are considering. How much do you favor or oppose each of these proposals?”

The results for the five alternative policies are shown in Table 19. There is majority opposition to bans at 15 weeks or less, majority support for bans after 6 months, and majority opposition to no restrictions at any point during a pregnancy.

 

Table 19: Favor or oppose abortion bans, by when ban would take effect, among adults

Ban whenFavorOppose
Ban at any time during pregnancy2575
Ban after 6 weeks3565
Ban after 15 weeks4753
Ban after 6 months5644
No restrictions at any point3961

Schools

A number of states are considering changes to education policy, including universal vouchers for students attending private or religious schools.

We asked:

“How would you rate the quality of education provided by the following types of K-12 schools in your community?”

Few respondents rate any of five types of school as “excellent,” though many rate them as “good.” Public schools fare the worst, with 45% rating them excellent or good, 32% rating them fair, and 23% giving them a poor rating. Private, non-religious schools receive the highest rating. The ratings for five types of school are shown in Table 20.

Table 20: How would you rate the quality of education provided by the following types of K-12 schools in your community? among all adults

Type of schoolExcellentGoodFairPoor
Public schools10353223
Catholic schools11482911
Non-Catholic religious schools8473411
Private non-religious schools1554256
Home schooling14373316

Several states have passed or are considering providing state funding for vouchers to pay for tuition for K-12 students to attend private or religious schools of their choice. Opinion is closely divided on this among adults nationally, with majorities of Republicans and independents in favor and a majority of Democrats opposed, as shown in Table 21.

 

Table 21: Provide state funding for vouchers to pay for tuition for K-12 students to attend private or religious schools of their choice instead of public schools, among all adults.

Party IDFavorOppose
Total5545
Republican6436
Independent6633
Democrat4159

Support for such vouchers is stronger among those with school-age children in the home than those without such children, shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Provide state funding for vouchers to pay for tuition for K-12 students to attend private or religious schools of their choice instead of public schools, by school-age children in home, among all adults.

School-age childrenFavorOppose
Yes, kids at home6535
No kids at home5050

Those who say they are born-again Protestants are most in favor of vouchers, followed by Catholics and by members of non-Christian groups. Opinion is closely divided among mainline Protestants and those without a religious affiliation, as shown in Table 23.

Table 23: Provide state funding for vouchers to pay for tuition for K-12 students to attend private or religious schools of their choice instead of public schools, by religious identification, among all adults.

ReligionFavorOppose
Born-again Protestant7129
Mainline Protestant4654
Roman Catholic5545
No religion4951
Other religion5644

Guns

A majority of the public, 60%, favor laws that allow most people to obtain a license to carry a concealed handgun, while 40% are opposed. However, a larger majority, 76%, oppose allowing concealed carry without requiring a license, with 24% favoring such a law. Currently, 25 states allow concealed carry without requiring a license or permit, with Florida set to become the 26th such state in July. A majority of the public in these “permitless” states which do not require a license say they are opposed to this policy, as shown in Table 24. In states that require permits, most have “shall issue” laws that assume a permit will be issued except for members of certain groups such as felons, while eight states have “may issue” laws allowing somewhat greater discretion in issuing permits.

 

Table 24: Favor or oppose permitless concealed carry, by state gun law, among all adults.

State gun lawFavorOppose
Permitless3565
Shall issue2179
May issue1485

While a majority oppose permitless concealed carry, a majority of those in states with such laws are unaware that this is the law in their state. Of respondents in the 25 states with permitless carry laws, 44% say they know this is the law, while 22% erroneously say their state requires a license and 34% say they don’t know what the law is. These results are shown in Table 25.

Table 25: Does your state’s law allow most people to carry concealed handguns without needing to obtain a license? By state gun law, among all adults.

State gun lawState does allow concealed handguns without a licenseState does NOT allow concealed handguns without a licenseDon’t know
Permitless442234
Shall issue175528
May issue47620

A large majority, 85%, favor so-called “red flag” laws that allow police to remove guns from people who have been found by a court to be a danger to themselves or others, while 15% are opposed. This law is strongly favored both by those in households with guns and those without guns, as shown in Table 26.

Table 26: Would you favor or oppose a law allowing the police to take guns away from people who have been found by a judge to be a danger to themselves or others? By gun households, among all adults.

Gun householdFavorOppose
Gun household8317
Not gun household8812

A majority of the public, 62%, favor a ban on the sale of “AR-15 style” semiautomatic rifles, while 38% are opposed. On this item, a slight majority of gun households oppose such a ban, while a large majority of non-gun households favor it, as shown in Table 27.

Table 27: Ban the sale of “AR-15 style” semiautomatic rifles in your state, by gun households, among all adults

Gun householdFavorOppose
Gun household4654
Not gun household7030

Transgender issues

Views concerning sports competition for transgender athletes find a majority, 71%, in favor of requiring that transgender athletes compete on teams that match the sex they were assigned at birth, not the gender they identify with, while 28% are opposed to this.

A majority, 56%, also support bans on “gender-affirming” care such as hormone therapy or surgery for transgender minors under 18, while 44% are opposed.

Racial issues

A majority, 54%, say that recent killings of Black Americans by the police are part of a larger pattern of police treatment of Black people, while 46% say these are isolated incidents. Such opinions vary sharply by race and ethnicity, as shown in Table 28.

Table 28: Do you think recent killings of Black Americans by police are isolated incidents or part of a larger pattern in the police’s treatment of Black Americans? by race, among all adults

Race and ethnicityIsolated incidentsPart of a larger pattern
White5842
Black1684
Hispanic3169
Other/Multiple3367

Racism is seen as very big problem by 41% of adults, as a moderately big problem by 33%, and a small problem or not a problem at all by 25%. Differences in views by race and ethnicity are shown in Table 29.

Table 29: How much of a problem do you think racism is in the country today? By race, among all adults.

Race and ethnicityA very big problemA moderately big problemA small problemNot a problem at all
White3236257
Black731692
Hispanic4831173
Other/Multiple504253

Aid to Ukraine

U.S. military aid to Ukraine has emerged as an issue with a partisan divide in recent months. In May, 34% say the U.S. is providing too much support to Ukraine, 23% say the U.S. is not giving enough support, and 43% say the U.S. is giving the right amount of aid. The percentage saying “too much support” is unchanged since March, as shown in Table 30.

Table 30: When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine? Among all adults.

Poll datesToo much supportNot enough supportAbout the right amount of support
11/15-22/22322345
1/9-20/23292446
3/13-22/23342441
5/8-18/23342343

Table 31 shows partisan differences on aide to Ukraine in the May poll. Half of Republicans say the U.S. is providing too much aid, while 38% of independents and 16% of Democrats agree.

Table 31: When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine? By party identification, among all adults.

Party IDToo much supportNot enough supportAbout the right amount of support
Total342343
Republican501733
Independent382338
Democrat162955

On the more general question of U.S. involvement in world affairs, 55% say it is better for the country to take an active part, while 45% say the U.S. should stay out of world affairs. Independents are especially skeptical of U.S. involvement in the world, with 64% saying we should stay out and a minority, 35%, saying we should take an active part. Republicans are evenly split on international involvement, and Democrats are substantially in favor of a U.S. role in the world, as shown in Table 32.

Table 32: Do you think it will be better for the future of the country if we take an active part in world affairs, or if we stay out of world affairs? Among all adults.

Party IDTake an active part in world affairsStay out of world affairs
Total5545
Republican4951
Independent3564
Democrat6931

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s national survey was conducted May 8-18, 2023. The survey interviewed 1,010 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points. The sample includes 833 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.1 percentage points. The sample size for registered Republican primary voters is 377, with a margin of error of +/-6.1 percentage points. The sample size for registered Democratic primary voters is 344, with a margin of error of +/-6.3 percentage points.

Certain other data from this survey (those about public views of the Supreme Court) were released yesterday, on May 24. All results may be found on the Marquette Law School Poll website.

Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available online.