New Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds continuing decline in approval of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is doing its job, with amount varying according to respondents’ partisanship

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds that 41% of adults approve of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is doing its job, while 59% disapprove. This is a 6-percentage-point decline from January when 47% approved and 53% disapproved.

The trend in approval since 2020 is shown in Table 1. Approval has oscillated since 2020 but, in each cycle, has reached a lower peak than the previous cycle, before again turning down. The peak in September 2020 was 66%, followed by peaks of 54% in November 2021 and March 2022, with the most recent peak of 47% in January 2023. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s national Supreme Court survey was conducted May 8-18, 2023. The survey interviewed 1,010 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points.

Table 1: Overall, how much do youapprove or disapprove of the way theU.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?
Poll datesApproveDisapprove
9/8-15/206633
7/16-26/216039
9/7-16/214950
11/1-10/215446
1/10-21/225246
3/14-24/225445
5/9-19/224455
7/5-12/223861
9/7-14/224060
11/15-22/224456
1/9-20/234753
3/13-22/234456
5/8-18/234159

Table 2 shows approval by partisanship in each Marquette poll taken in 2023. There are sharp partisan divides, but approval has declined among both Republicans and Democrats. Approval is little changed among independents. (Unless otherwise stated, independents who say they are closer to one party are included with partisans of that party.)

Table 2: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?, by party identification

Party IDPoll datesApproveDisapprove
Republican1/9-20/236931
Republican3/13-22/236634
Republican5/8-18/236040
Independent1/9-20/233563
Independent3/13-22/233267
Independent5/8-18/233465
Democrat1/9-20/233169
Democrat3/13-22/232674
Democrat5/8-18/232476

Justice Thomas financial disclosure reports

The May survey was conducted after a series of news stories concerning Justice Clarence Thomas’ financial disclosure statements, which did not report a real estate sale or certain travel expenses paid by others. Thirty-three percent said they had heard a lot about this, while 32% had heard a little and 35% had heard nothing at all.

Those who follow politics most of the time were more likely to have heard of the financial disclosure reports than those who pay less attention to politics generally, as shown in Table 3.

Table 3: News stories about Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas’ financial disclosure reports. (Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these?) By attention to politics.

Attention to politicsHeard a lotA littleNothing at all
Most of the time602812
Less often183448

Similarly, those with more information about the U.S. Supreme Court, measured by knowledge of which party’s presidents have nominated a majority of justices on the Court, are more likely to have heard a lot about the disclosure reports, shown in Table 4.

Table 4: News stories about Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas’ financial disclosure reports. (Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these?) By knowledge of majority of Court appointments.

Court majorityHeard a lotA littleNothing at all
Definitely/Probably majority appointed by Dems133552
Probably majority appointed by Reps273439
Definitely majority appointed by Reps622512

Democrats are more likely to say they have heard a lot about the disclosure reports than are Republicans or independents, as shown in Table 5. Independents are especially more likely to say they have heard nothing at all about this.

Table 5: News stories about Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas’ financial disclosure reports. (Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these?) By party identification.

Party identificationHeard a lotA littleNothing at all
Republican264231
Independent142660
Democrat492427

The partisan differences persist within levels of general attention to politics and specific knowledge about the Court, as shown in Table 6 (a) and Table 6 (b).

Table 6: News stories about Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas’ financial disclosure reports. (Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these?) By party identification.

(a) By attention and party identification

Party identificationAttention to politicsHeard a lotA littleNothing at all
RepublicanMost of the time434611
RepublicanLess often154045
IndependentMost of the time462628
IndependentLess often82666
DemocratMost of the time771310
DemocratLess often293339


(b) By knowledge of majority of Court appointments

Party identificationCourt majorityHeard a lotA littleNothing at all
RepublicanDefinitely/Probably Dem majority164243
RepublicanProbably Rep majority254332
RepublicanDefinitely Rep majority444313
IndependentDefinitely/Probably Dem majority72172
IndependentProbably Rep majority113257
IndependentDefinitely Rep majority402139
DemocratDefinitely/Probably Dem majority143550
DemocratProbably Rep majority362836
DemocratDefinitely Rep majority76168

Perception of ethical standards of legal and media actors

Respondents rated the “honesty and ethical standards” of U.S. Supreme Court justices, state judges, lawyers,  journalists, and cable TV news, as shown in Table 7. In all five groups, more respondents rate honesty and ethical standards as low or very low than rate them as high or very high. The extent of negativity varies considerably, with ratings of state judges and Supreme Court justices slightly negative, journalists and lawyers substantially negative, and cable TV news extremely negative.

Table 7: Please tell me how you would rate the honesty and ethical standards of people in these different fields.

GroupNetVery high/highAverageLow/Very low
Judges in your state-1245125
Supreme Court justices-9263935
Journalists-26193545
Lawyers-29144343
Cable TV news-4983557

Those who have heard a lot about Justice Thomas’ financial disclosure reports are especially likely to rate the ethical standards of the Supreme Court justices as low or very low, as shown in Table 8 (a). However, partisanship affects these ratings as well, as shown in Table 8 (b). Republicans who have heard a lot about the disclosure reports rate the ethical standards of justices as high or very high, while Democrats who have heard a lot are more likely to rate the ethical standards as low or very low. Independents who have heard a lot are more likely to rate the ethical standards as low or very low.

Table 8: U.S. Supreme Court Justices. (Please tell me how you would rate the honesty and ethical standards of people in these different fields.) By heard about financial disclosure reports

(a) By heard about financial disclosure reports

Heard of disclosure reportsRate standards as very high/highAverageLow/very low
A lot282546
A little284526
Nothing at all204832

(b) By heard about financial disclosure reports and party identification

Party IDHeard of disclosure reportsVery high/highAverageLow/very low
RepublicanA lot563211
RepublicanA little345115
RepublicanNothing at all284923
IndependentA lot212553
IndependentA little114346
IndependentNothing at all134937
DemocratA lot152164
DemocratA little283735
DemocratNothing at all194338

Views of the justices

The justices are generally not well known, with a majority of the public saying they don’t know enough to give a favorable or unfavorable opinion about most justices. Justice Clarence Thomas is the most widely known and Justice Elena Kagan the least well known, as shown in Table 9.

Table 9: Some justices of the Supreme Court are better known than others. For each of these names, have you never heard of them, heard of them but don’t know enough to have an opinion of them, have a favorable opinion or have an unfavorable opinion?

(a) May 2023

JusticeFavorableUnfavorableUnable to rate
Samuel Alito161866
Amy Coney Barrett192755
Neil Gorsuch191665
Ketanji Brown Jackson221464
Elena Kagan181172
Brett Kavanaugh223246
John Roberts221860
Sonia Sotomayor291556
Clarence Thomas253640

(b) March 2023

JusticeFavorableUnfavorableUnable to rate
Samuel Alito151669
Amy Coney Barrett222751
Neil Gorsuch181567
Ketanji Brown Jackson261559
Elena Kagan171073
Brett Kavanaugh253441
John Roberts251560
Sonia Sotomayor341552
Clarence Thomas293238

Favorable ratings of most of the justices declined slightly from March to May, with similarly small increases in unfavorable ratings. The changes in ratings do not appear to be related to the justice’s judicial philosophy or party of the appointing president. Changes in ratings are shown in Table 10. Justice Thomas’ ratings became more negative, though the change is not substantially different from the changes of other justices.

Table 10: Changes in favorable and unfavorable ratings of justices from March to May, 2023

JusticeFavorable changeUnfavorable change
Samuel Alito12
Amy Coney Barrett-30
Neil Gorsuch11
Ketanji Brown Jackson-4-1
Elena Kagan11
Brett Kavanaugh-3-2
John Roberts-33
Sonia Sotomayor-50
Clarence Thomas-44

Confidence in the Court and other institutions

Confidence in the Court has declined since 2019, when 37% had a great deal or quite a lot of confidence. In May 2023, similar confidence was expressed by 25%. Those with very little or no confidence increased from 20% in Sept. 2019 to 39% in May 2023. The full trend is shown in Table 11. As with approval of the Court, confidence has declined recently from January to May 2023.

Table 11: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? The U.S. Supreme Court.

Poll datesGreat deal/a lotSomeLittle/None
9/3-13/19374220
9/8-15/20394516
7/5-12/22282844
9/7-14/22303436
11/15-22/22303634
1/9-20/23313831
3/13-22/23284032
5/8-18/23253639

There generally is low confidence in American institutions, at least as with respect to the five institutions about which the survey inquired. Confidence in these government and media institutions is shown in Table 12. The Supreme Court has the least negative net confidence, followed by the presidency and local news media, with Congress and national news media being the most negatively viewed.

Table 12: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one?

InstitutionNetGreat deal/a lotSomeLittle/None
The U.S. Supreme Court-14253639
The Presidency-20253045
Your local news media-20204040
Congress-38114149
The national news media-41162757

Awareness of cases

The Supreme Court is not constantly in the news, unlike Congress or the president. Rather, coverage is concentrated around the announcement of decisions and, to some extent, the argument of cases or the appointment of justices. This fluctuating pattern of news means that much of the public may not hear about cases before they are ultimately decided and that there may be fluctuating awareness even of cases that are relatively high-profile (for example, a decreasing awareness from when a case is argued until it is decided, months later).

A majority of the public said they were aware the Court’s consideration of a Texas court ruling concerning a drug used in medication-induced abortions, mifepristone. Thirty-six percent said they had heard a lot about this, 36% heard a little, and 29% had heard nothing at all.

A smaller percentage, 16%, said they had heard or read a lot about “a Supreme Court case concerning the use of race in college admissions,” 44% had heard a little, and 40% had heard nothing at all. The cases, Students for Fair Admissions Inc. v. President and Fellows of Harvard College and Students for Fair Admissions v. University of North Carolina, were argued Oct. 31, 2022. In the November Marquette poll, conducted shortly after oral argument in the case, 20% had heard a lot, 45% had heard a little, and 34% had heard nothing about this case.

Pending cases

The survey finds that the public is skeptical of the use of race in admissions, with 34% in favor of a decision that would ban the use of race and 12% opposed. The case is not yet on the top of the mind of most respondents, however, with 55% saying they haven’t heard anything about such a case or haven’t heard enough to have an opinion.

Polling on this topic since September 2021 has seen consistent opposition to the use of race in admissions. Table 13 (a) shows views including among those who have not heard enough about the issue, and Table 13 (b) shows the percentages for only those with an opinion.

Table 13: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Rule that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit.

(a) Among all respondents

Poll datesHeard nothing/not enoughFavorOppose
9/7-16/21335313
3/14-24/22334917
9/7-14/22503713
11/15-22/22424116
1/9-20/23493516
3/13-22/23503317
5/8-18/23553412

(b) Among those with an opinion

Poll datesFavorOppose
9/7-16/218119
3/14-24/227525
9/7-14/227426
11/15-22/227228
1/9-20/236832
3/13-22/236634
5/8-18/237426

There are substantial partisan differences on this issue, as shown in Table 14. Among those with an opinion about the case, substantial majorities of Republicans and independents favor banning the use of race while Democrats are more evenly divided. Half or more of each partisan group have not heard enough about this case to have an opinion.

Table 14: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Rule that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit. By party identification.

(a) Among all respondents

Party IDHeard nothing/not enoughFavorOppose
Republican50465
Independent64287
Democrat552521

(b) Among those with an opinion

Party IDFavorOppose
Republican919
Independent8020
Democrat5446

Another case, 303 Creative LLC v. Elenis, argued Dec. 5, poses the question whether the religious beliefs or free speech rights of business owners can justify refusing to provide some services to LGBTQ customers. A plurality, 31%, oppose a decision allowing such a business to refuse services, while 23% favor such a ruling. As with college admissions, a substantial 46% have not heard of this case or have not heard enough to have an opinion. The trend in opinion on this question is shown in Table 15.

Table 15: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Decide that a business owner’s religious beliefs or free speech rights can justify refusing some services to gay people.

(a) Among all respondents

Poll datesHeard nothing/not enoughFavorOppose
3/14-24/22292843
9/7-14/22442135
11/15-22/22352540
1/9-20/23432433
3/13-22/23422533
5/8-18/23462331

(b) Among those with an opinion

Poll datesHeard of and favor such a rulingHeard of and oppose such a ruling
3/14-24/223961
9/7-14/223763
11/15-22/223961
1/9-20/234357
3/13-22/234357
5/8-18/234357

Partisans differ on this case as well, with large and opposite majorities among Republicans and Democrats, while independents are closely divided, as shown in Table 16. Awareness of this case is slightly higher than for the use of race in college admissions, but more than 40% of each partisan group regard themselves as lacking enough information to have an opinion.

Table 16: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Decide that a business owner’s religious beliefs or free speech rights can justify refusing some services to gay people. By party identification.

(a) Among all respondents

Party IDHeard nothing/not enoughFavorOppose
Republican434314
Independent631719
Democrat41653

(b) Among those with an opinion

Party IDHeard of and favor such a rulingHeard of and oppose such a ruling
Republican7624
Independent4852
Democrat1189

Prior decisions

In the current survey, 35% favor the June 2022 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, overturning the 1973 Roe v. Wade abortion rights decision, while 65% oppose the ruling in Dobbs. The trend in responses since November 2022 is shown in Table 17. Opinion has remained stable over this period.

Table 17: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. (How much do you favor or oppose this decision?)

Poll datesFavorOppose
11/15-22/223366
1/9-20/233564
3/13-22/233367
5/8-18/233565

Partisan differences are very large concerning the Dobbs decision, as shown in Table 18 for the May survey, with a majority of Republicans favoring the Dobbs decision and majorities of independents and Democrats opposed.

Table 18: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. (How much do you favor or oppose this decision?) By party identification, May 2023

Party IDFavorOppose
Republican5842
Independent3763
Democrat1189

Looking back to earlier decisions, a substantial majority favor the Court’s 2015 ruling establishing a right to same-sex marriage, 67%, while 33% are opposed. The trend is shown in Table 19. Opinion on this has remained stable.

Table 19: In 2015, the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll datesFavorOppose
5/9-19/226931
7/5-12/226634
9/7-14/227129
11/15-22/227228
1/9-20/236733
3/13-22/236535
5/8-18/236733

Partisan differences on the same-sex marriage decision are shown in Table 20. Republicans are evenly divided, while independents and Democrats substantially favor the same-sex marriage decision.

Table 20: In 2015, the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage. How much do you favor or oppose this decision? By party identification, May 2023

Party IDFavorOppose
Republican5248
Independent6535
Democrat8218

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted May 8-18, 2023, interviewing 1,010 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available online. Some items from this survey are held for later release.

Wording of questions about future and past Supreme Court decisions: These items do not attempt to exactly frame the particular issues in specific cases but rather address the topic in more general terms.

Here is the basic wording of the questions about cases before the Court in the October 2022 Term.:

Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion?

These are the wording of the questions about decisions of the Court prior to the current October 2022 Term.

Opinion of Dobbs decisions, striking down Roe v. Wade

Opinion of same-sex marriage decision:

In 2015, the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

New Marquette Law School national survey finds a very close race for president in 2024; Trump and DeSantis top GOP primary field; Biden job approval rating declines to 39%

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds very close races between President Joe Biden and either former President Donald Trump or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in hypothetical 2024 presidential elections. Among registered voters, Biden and Trump each receive 38% of the vote, with 20% saying that they would vote for someone else and 4% that they would not vote.

In a matchup between Biden and DeSantis, DeSantis receives 42% and Biden is the choice of 41%, with 13% saying they would vote for someone else and 4% saying they would not vote.

Table 1: Biden vs. Trump trend, among registered voters
Poll datesDonald TrumpJoe BidenSomeone elseWouldn’t vote
11/1-10/213543184
1/10-21/223345184
3/14-24/223843164
9/7-14/223642193
11/15-22/223444194
1/9-20/234040173
3/13-22/233838204

 The trend in the Biden vs. Trump matchup is shown in Table 1 and the Biden vs DeSantis trend is shown in Table 2. While Biden led Trump through 2022, the two have been tied in the first two 2023 polls. DeSantis has also moved into a very close race with Biden, leading Biden in January by 7 points but holding just a 1-point edge in March. In both matchups, the relatively high percentages saying they would vote for “someone else” or would not vote indicates the potential for volatility in coming months as candidate choices become clarified. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

 

Table 2: Biden vs. DeSantis trend, among registered voters

Poll datesRon DeSantisJoe BidenSomeone elseWouldn’t voteWeb blank
1/10-21/2234431750
3/14-24/2235391950
9/7-14/2238431550
11/15-22/2242421140
1/9-20/2345381340
3/13-22/2342411340

The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s national survey was conducted March 13-22, 2023. The survey interviewed 1,004 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-3.8 percentage points. The sample includes 863 registered voters with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. The sample size for registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican is 381, with a margin of error of +/-6.1 percentage points. The sample size for registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic is 401, with a margin of error of +/-5.9 percentage points.

Republican primary choices

Trump leads in the presidential nomination race, with 40% among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican, while DeSantis is the choice of 35%. Former Vice President Mike Pence is supported by 5% and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley by 5%. No other potential candidate received more than 1% support, while 12% said they were undecided or did not support any of the 11 names offered in the question. Table 3 shows the full results.

Table 3: Here are some potential candidates for the Republican presidential nomination. If the primary were today, who would you vote for? among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican. *=less than 0.5%

CandidatePercent
Donald Trump40
Ron DeSantis35
Mike Pence5
Nikki Haley5
Mike Pompeo1
Chris Sununu1
Kristi Noem*
Chris Christie*
Tim Scott*
Asa Hutchinson*
Glenn Youngkin*
Undecided10
None of these2

When asked to choose if the choice were between only Trump and DeSantis, DeSantis is the choice of 54% and Trump is the choice of 46%. That represents a sharp tightening of the race since January, when DeSantis received 64% to Trump’s 36%. The trend is shown in Table 4.

Table 4: If it were a choice between just the two of them, who would you prefer as the Republican nominee for president in 2024: Donald Trump or Florida Governor Ron DeSantis? among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Poll datesDonald TrumpRon DeSantis
11/15-22/224060
1/9-20/233664
3/13-22/234654

Among those who choose a candidate other than DeSantis or Trump in the multi-candidate question, DeSantis picks up almost three-quarters of the support when they are asked to decide between DeSantis and Trump. A handful of respondents shift away from their first choice of Trump or DeSantis in the subsequent two-candidate question. Those initially undecided or not choosing any named candidate split close to evenly when offered only Trump or DeSantis.

Table 5: Choice between Trump or DeSantis only, by first choice in multi-candidate question, among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Respondent’s multi-candidate choiceDonald TrumpRon DeSantis
Trump919
DeSantis397
Other candidate2674
Undecided/None4356

DeSantis holds a slight lead among those who call themselves “Republicans,” but sees a larger advantage among independents who say they lean Republican, as shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Choice between Trump or DeSantis, by strength of Republican identification among registered voters

Strength of Republican identificationDonald TrumpRon DeSantis
Republican4852
Lean Republican4060

DeSantis has more support than Trump among those Republicans and Republican leaners who describe themselves as very or somewhat conservative, while Trump does better among those who consider themselves moderate or liberal.

Table 7: Choice between Trump or DeSantis, by ideology among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

IdeologyDonald TrumpRon DeSantis
Very conservative4654
Somewhat conservative4159
Moderate or liberal5346

Trump has greater support among Republicans without a college degree while DeSantis does better among those with at least a bachelor’s degree.

Table 8: Choice between Trump or DeSantis, by education among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

College gradDonald TrumpRon DeSantis
Non-college grad5149
College grad3763

DeSantis is well-liked among Republicans who also hold a favorable view of Trump, making him a competitor to Trump from inside Trump’s coalition. DeSantis is less well-liked among Republicans unfavorable to Trump. Table 9 shows favorability to DeSantis by favorability to Trump.

Table 9: DeSantis favorability, by Trump favorability among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Trump favorabilityFavorable opinion of DeSantisUnfavorable opinion of DeSantisHaven’t heard enough
Favorable opinion80812
Unfavorable opinion513217

Despite leading Trump among those who prefer a candidate other than Trump or DeSantis, DeSantis has negative favorability among those respondents, and it is notably less favorable than among those who make Trump their top pick in the multi-candidate choice question. DeSantis has a quite favorable rating among those for whom Trump is their first choice for the presidential nomination.

Table 10: DeSantis favorability, by multi-candidate first choice among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Multi-candidate 1st choiceFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Trump711019
DeSantis9352
Other candidate364223
Undecided/None303535

Favorability toward potential GOP candidates

For Republican voters, Trump is nearly universally known and Pence and DeSantis are fairly well-known. Most other potential Republican candidates are far less familiar to Republican voters. Table 11 shows the favorable, unfavorable, and haven’t-heard-enough responses to eight potential candidates.

 

Table 11: Favorability ratings of potential Republican candidates, among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

NameFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Trump66312
Pence484111
DeSantis691515
Pompeo312445
Haley401347
Scott30763
Noem26964
Youngkin231166

Trump’s favorability rating among Republicans and independents who lean Republican has declined since July 2022, when he peaked in the Marquette survey at 76%, to 66%, despite a 70% favorable rating in January. The full trend is shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Trump favorability trend, among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Poll datesFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
11/1-10/2170291
1/10-21/2271281
3/14-24/2275231
5/9-19/2275222
7/5-12/2276222
9/7-14/2274251
11/15-22/2267321
1/9-20/2370282
3/13-22/2366312

DeSantis’s favorable ratings also dipped slightly in March after steadily rising in the previous year of polling, as shown in Table 13.

 

Table 13: DeSantis favorability trend, among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Poll datesFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
1/10-21/2257934
3/14-24/2257735
5/9-19/22581527
7/5-12/2262929
9/7-14/22651025
11/15-22/22681022
1/9-20/23711019
3/13-22/23691515

Favorability to governors

For comparison with widely mentioned possible presidential candidates, the survey also asked about five Republican and five Democratic governors. These figures are all prominent in their own states but are not well-known nationally. For these ratings, each was identified as a governor and the state was mentioned, but not the governor’s party. The potential presidential candidates, discussed above, were not identified by current or past office. (Youngkin was included in both lists. Identifying him as governor of Virginia in the governors’ list only slightly reduced the percentage saying they hadn’t heard enough about him.)

Table 14 shows the favorability ratings for five Republican governors among Republicans and independents who lean Republican.

Table 14: Favorability ratings of Republican governors, among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

NameFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Greg Abbott, Texas59932
Brian Kemp, Georgia281260
Glenn Youngkin, Virginia30961
Mike DeWine, Ohio201069
Chris Sununu, New Hampshire131275

Favorability ratings for five Democratic governors, among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, are shown in Table 15.

 

Table 15: Favorability ratings of Democratic governors, among registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic

NameFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Gavin Newsom, California481635
Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan43552
Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania22772
Wes Moore, Maryland12682
Jared Polis, Colorado13583

Presidential approval

Approval of Biden’s handling of his job as president declined in March to 39%, with 61% disapproving. In January, 43% approved and 56% disapproved. Biden’s approval in March is the second-lowest of his presidency in the Marquette Law School Poll. The full trend for Biden approval in Marquette Law School Poll national surveys is shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Biden job approval, among all adults

Poll datesApproveDisapprove
7/16-26/215842
9/7-16/214852
11/1-10/214951
1/10-21/224653
3/14-24/224455
5/9-19/224257
7/5-12/223664
9/7-14/224555
11/15-22/224555
1/9-20/234356
3/13-22/233961

Biden’s favorability ratings among all adults also closely mirrors his approval rating and also declined in March, as shown in Table 17.

 

Table 17: Biden favorability rating, among all adults

Poll datesFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
11/1-10/2145496
1/10-21/2245514
3/14-24/2244533
5/9-19/2240554
7/5-12/2234624
9/7-14/2243543
11/15-22/2243533
1/9-20/2341544
3/13-22/2337594

As shown in Table 18, Vice President Kamala Harris’s favorability is a bit below that of Biden, which is common for vice presidents, as is her higher “haven’t heard enough” percentage.

Table 18: Harris favorability rating, among all adults

Poll datesFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
11/1-10/21384616
1/10-21/22374914
9/7-14/22365213
11/15-22/22345016
1/9-20/23325413
3/13-22/23315416

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was mentioned frequently in recent coverage of a train derailment and chemical spill in Ohio. His favorable rating has barely changed since September, although his unfavorable ratings have increased since November and fewer people say they lack an opinion of him, as shown in Table 19.

Table 19: Buttigieg favorability rating, among all adults

Poll datesFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
1/10-21/22282745
9/7-14/22263342
11/15-22/22262945
1/9-20/23253243
3/13-22/23263638

The freight train derailment and hazardous chemical spill in East Palestine, Ohio, were widely known, with 62% saying they had heard a lot about this, 25% saying they had heard a little, and 13% having heard nothing at all.

Those who heard a lot were more unfavorable to Buttigieg than those who heard less, although there was no difference on the favorable side of the ratings by amount heard concerning the derailment, as shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Buttigieg favorability rating by amount heard about train derailment, among all adults

Heard about derailmentFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
A lot294130
A little283240
Nothing at all72569

Abortion issues

As stated in a release yesterday concerning the same national survey but focusing on public opinion about the Supreme Court, a majority, 67%, of all those polled oppose the Court’s 2022 ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which overturned abortion rights established in Roe v. Wade in 1973, while 33% favor the Dobbs decision. Opposition to the Dobbs decision has remained stable since November 2022, as shown in Table 21.

Table 21: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision? among all adults

Poll datesFavorOppose
11/15-22/223366
1/9-20/233564
3/13-22/233367

That is the only table repeated from yesterday’s release, given the relationship of its topic with the topics of the next two tables.

Opinion about abortion policy has fluctuated only slightly since May 2022, as shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases? among all adults

Poll datesLegal in all casesLegal in most casesIllegal in most casesIllegal in all cases
5/9-19/222938248
7/5-12/222836278
9/7-14/223137266
11/15-22/222936269
1/9-20/232638288
3/13-22/232839276

As states have adopted widely varying laws concerning abortion following the Dobbs ruling, public opinion has strongly favored allowing abortion in cases of rape or incest, with 88% in favor and 11% saying abortion should not be allowed in these circumstances. In September 2022, 90% said abortion should be allowed and 10% said it should not be in this circumstance.

A large majority, 74%, oppose states being able to make it illegal for a woman to get and fill prescriptions for medication to induce an abortion from out of state providers, while 26% favor states having that ability.

The public is substantially opposed to restrictions on travel to another state to obtain a legal abortion, with 81% saying states should not be able to make such travel illegal and 19% saying states should be able to ban out-of-state travel for abortions.

Opinion is evenly divided on a proposal to pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy. Table 23 shows opinion on this, with partisan differences. Republicans and Democrats are virtual mirror images on this question, while independents are more evenly divided.

Table 23: Pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, among all adults

Party IDFavorOppose
Total4951
Republican7426
Independent4653
Democrat2575

Vouchers for private schools

Several states recently have passed or are considering proposals to provide state funding for vouchers to pay for K-12 students to attend private or religious schools of their choice instead of public schools. Opinion is closely divided on this among adults nationally, with substantial partisan differences as shown in Table 24.

Table 24: Provide state funding for vouchers to pay for tuition for K-12 students to attend private or religious schools of their choice instead of public schools, among all adults

Party IDFavorOppose
Total5347
Republican6238
Independent6037
Democrat4258

Support for such vouchers is stronger among those with school-age children in the home than those without children, shown in Table 25.

Table 25: Provide state funding for vouchers to pay for tuition for K-12 students to attend private or religious schools of their choice instead of public schools, by school-age children in home, among all adults

School-age children?Favor fundingOppose
Kids at home6337
No kids at home4951

Those who say they are born-again Protestants or are Roman Catholics are more supportive of school vouchers than are those of other faiths or those without a religious identification, as shown in Table 26.

Table 26: Provide state funding for vouchers to pay for tuition for K-12 students to attend private or religious schools of their choice instead of public schools by religious identification, among all adults

ReligionFavorOppose
Born-again Protestant6733
Mainline Protestant4951
Roman Catholic6733
No religion3663
Other religion4851

Views of the police

Forty-four percent of respondents in this national poll say they have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the police, 33% have some confidence, and 23% have little or no confidence. Confidence is higher among white respondents and lower among Hispanic and mixed-race people and is especially low among Black respondents, as shown in Table 27.

Table 27: The police: here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? by race, among all adults

Race and ethnicityGreat deal/quite a lotSomeVery little/None
White523117
Black173944
Hispanic333828
Other/Multiple373329

A majority, 57%, say that recent killings of Black Americans by the police is part of a larger pattern of police treatment of Black people, while 43% say these are isolated incidents. Table 28 shows how these views differ by race and ethnicity of respondents.

Table 28: Do you think recent killings of Black Americans by police are isolated incidents or part of a larger pattern in the police’s treatment of Black Americans? by race, among all adults

Race and ethnicityIsolated incidentsPart of a larger pattern
White5446
Black890
Hispanic3565
Other/Multiple2179

Aid to Ukraine

Opinion on U.S. military aid to Ukraine has shown partisan divisions in recent months. In this March poll, 34% say the U.S. is providing too much support to Ukraine, 24% say the U.S. is not giving enough support, and 41% say the U.S. is giving the right amount of aid. The percentage saying “too much support” increased by 5 percentage points from January, as shown in Table 29.

Table 29: When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine?, among all adults

Poll datesToo much supportNot enough supportAbout the right amount of support
11/15-22/22322345
1/9-20/23292446
3/13-22/23342441

Table 30 shows partisan differences on aid to Ukraine in the March poll. Just over half of Republicans, 52%, say the U.S. is providing too much aid, while 36% of Independents and 16% of Democrats agree with that view.

Table 30: When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine?, among all adults

Party IDToo much supportNot enough supportAbout the right amount of support
Total342441
Republican521533
Independent361845
Democrat163648

On the more general question of U.S. involvement in world affairs, 55% say it is better for the country to take an active part, while 45% say the U.S. should stay out of world affairs. Independents are especially skeptical of U.S. involvement in the world, with 56% saying we should stay out and a minority, 41%, saying we should take an active part. Republicans are evenly split on international involvement, and Democrats are substantially in favor of a U.S. role in the world, as shown in Table 31.

Table 31: Do you think it will be better for the future of the country if we take an active part in world affairs, or if we stay out of world affairs?, among all adults

Party IDTake an active part in world affairsStay out of world affairs
Total5545
Republican4852
Independent4156
Democrat6733

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s national Supreme Court survey was conducted March 13-22, 2023. The survey interviewed 1,004 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-3.8 percentage points. The sample includes 863 registered voters with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. The sample size for registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican is 381, with a margin of error of +/-6.1 percentage points. The sample size for registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic is 401, with a margin of error of +/-5.9 percentage points.

Certain other data from this survey (those about public views of the Supreme Court) were released yesterday, March 29, 2023, and can be found on the Marquette Law School Poll website.

Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available at https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/results-and-data/.