Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds Biden leads Trump by 2 points, trails DeSantis and Haley

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin registered voters finds Democratic President Joe Biden is the choice of 50% and former Republican President Donald Trump the choice of 48% of registered voters in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup looking to the November 2024 election for president. But Biden trails Republican candidates Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley in hypothetical matchups. DeSantis receives 50% to Biden’s 48%, while Haley holds a larger lead, 53% to Biden’s 44%. These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked to choose one of the candidates.

Table 1 shows the Biden vs. Trump results by party identification. Biden receives a higher share of Democratic votes than does Trump among Republicans, while independents split evenly. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages.)

Table 1: Vote for Biden or Trump

Among registered voters

Party IDVote choice
Donald TrumpJoe BidenHaven’t decided/Neither
Total48501
Republican88101
Independent47474
Democrat6940
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question for those initially answering “Haven’t decided”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?

In the Biden-DeSantis matchup in Table 2, Republicans back DeSantis more strongly than they do Trump, while independents support DeSantis over Biden. Democratic support for Biden is little changed.

Table 2: Vote for Biden or DeSantis

Among registered voters

Party IDVote choice
Ron DeSantisJoe BidenHaven’t decided
Total50481
Republican9172
Independent58375
Democrat5940
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Ron DeSantis or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question for those initially answering “Haven’t decided”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for DeSantis?

Haley runs especially well against Biden in this survey, as shown in Table 3, winning a larger share of Republicans than DeSantis or Trump and matching DeSantis’ share of independent votes. She also wins 8% of Democratic voters, a larger share than does DeSantis or Trump.

Table 3: Vote for Biden or Haley

Among registered voters

Party IDVote choice
Nikki HaleyJoe BidenHaven’t decided
Total53443
Republican9442
Independent583111
Democrat8901
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Nikki Haley or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question for those initially answering “Haven’t decided”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Haley?

This Marquette Law School Poll was conducted from Oct. 26 through Nov. 2, 2023, interviewing 908 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. The sample includes 402 Republicans and independents who lean Republican who were asked about their preferences in the Republican presidential primary, with a margin of error of +/-6.8 percentage points.

Favorability

Haley’s strong showing comes despite her being the least well-known of the four candidates included in this poll. Among all registered voters, all four candidates—Biden, Trump, DeSantis, and Haley—are seen more unfavorably than favorably. Table 4 shows favorability to each. Trump has the highest net unfavorable opinion (favorable views minus unfavorable views), followed by Biden, DeSantis, and Haley, who is only slightly net negative. Haley has the highest percentage who say they haven’t heard enough about her or don’t know how they feel about her.

Table 4: Favorability to Biden, Trump, DeSantis, and Haley

Among registered voters

CandidateFavorability
Net favorableFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enoughDon’t know
Joe Biden-14425620
Donald Trump-24376120
Ron DeSantis-123749130
Nikki Haley-33134332
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

A significant share of respondents view both Biden and Trump unfavorably, 18%, while a smaller 12% view both Biden and DeSantis unfavorably, as do 12% for Biden and Haley.

A deeper look at votes

Biden vs. Trump, by 2020 vote

Voters were asked to recall whom they voted for in 2020, if they voted that year. For a rematch of Biden and Trump, there is strong stability of vote choice, with only 3% of Trump voters switching to Biden, 4% of Biden voters switching to Trump, and a handful who said they were undecided or who declined to answer, as shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Vote for Biden or Trump, by 2020 vote

Among registered voters who voted in 2020

2020 VoteVote choice in 2024
Donald TrumpJoe BidenHaven’t decided/NeitherRefused
Donald Trump95301
Joe Biden49421
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question for those initially answering “Haven’t decided”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
Question: Which presidential candidate did you vote for in 2020?

Comparing 2020 vote to the Biden vs. DeSantis matchup in Table 6 suggests that DeSantis holds a higher percentage of Trump voters than does Trump himself, while also winning over 9% of Biden 2020 voters.

Table 6: Vote for Biden or DeSantis, by 2020 vote

Among registered voters who voted in 2020

2020 VoteVote choice in 2024
Ron DeSantisJoe BidenHaven’t decidedRefused
Donald Trump97300
Joe Biden98920
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Ron DeSantis or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question for those initially answering “Haven’t decided”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for DeSantis?
Question: Which presidential candidate did you vote for in 2020?

Haley does especially well by winning over 15% of 2020 Biden voters and holding 96% of Trump 2020 voters, as shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Vote for Biden or Haley, by 2020 vote

Among registered voters who voted in 2020

2020 VoteVote choice in 2024
Nikki HaleyJoe BidenHaven’t decidedRefused
Donald Trump96310
Joe Biden158141
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Nikki Haley or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question for those initially answering “Haven’t decided”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Haley?
Question: Which presidential candidate did you vote for in 2020?

Choice if “had to choose” among initially undecided voters

When initially asked their vote choice between Biden and Trump, 45% picked Biden and 42% chose Trump, while 12% said they were undecided. Table 8 shows the choices of the initially undecided voters when pushed to choose between Biden and Trump. These voters split very evenly between Biden and Trump.

Table 8: Vote if “had to choose,” among those initially undecided between Biden and Trump

Among registered voters who are undecided between Biden and Trump

Biden v TrumpIf had to choose
Definitely TrumpProbably TrumpProbably BidenDefinitely BidenDon’t knowRefused
Undecided Biden or Trump64039673
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?

When initially asked their vote choice between Biden and DeSantis, 43% picked Biden and 42% chose DeSantis, while 15% said they were undecided. Table 9 shows the choices of these initially undecided voters when pushed to choose between Biden and DeSantis. These voters favor DeSantis over Biden, though few are “definite” in their preferences.

Table 9: Vote if “had to choose,” among those undecided between Biden and DeSantis

Among registered voters who are undecided between Biden and DeSantis

Biden v DeSantisIf had to choose
Definitely DeSantisProbably DeSantisProbably BidenDefinitely BidenDon’t knowRefused
Undecided Biden or Trump74934090
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for DeSantis?

When initially asked their vote choice between Biden and Haley, 36% picked Biden and 41% chose Haley, while 22% said they were undecided. Table 10 shows the choices of these initially undecided voters when pushed to choose between Biden and Haley. Haley picks up a majority of these undecided voters, with some remaining undecided.

Table 10: Vote if “had to choose,” among those undecided between Biden and Haley

Among registered voters who are undecided between Biden and Haley

Biden v HaleyIf had to choose
Definitely HaleyProbably HaleyProbably BidenDefinitely BidenDon’t knowRefused
Undecided Biden or Trump845350111
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Haley?

Biden job approval and vote

Biden’s job approval stands at 42% with disapproval at 57%. In June, 45% approved and 53% disapproved.

Table 11 shows vote choice between Biden and Trump by Biden job approval. Biden wins very large majorities of those who approve either strongly or somewhat of how he is doing his job, but he also wins a majority of those who somewhat disapprove of his handling of his job. This provides him a boost against Trump. Trump wins more than 90% of the strongly disapprove group, as does each of the other Republican candidates.

Table 11: Biden vs. Trump vote, by Biden job approval

Among registered voters

Biden job approvalVote
Donald TrumpJoe BidenHaven’t decided/Neither
Total48501
Strongly approve01000
Somewhat approve4941
Somewhat disapprove38573
Strongly disapprove9351
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question for those initially answering “Haven’t decided”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Table 12 shows vote choice between Biden and DeSantis by Biden job approval. Biden continues to win big majorities from both categories of approval, but he holds a smaller majority among somewhat disapproving voters than he would win against Trump.

Table 12: Biden vs. DeSantis vote, by Biden job approval

Among registered voters

Biden job approvalVote
Ron DeSantisJoe BidenHaven’t decided
Total50481
Strongly approve0982
Somewhat approve10873
Somewhat disapprove48521
Strongly disapprove9451
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Ron DeSantis or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question for those initially answering “Haven’t decided”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for DeSantis?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Table 13 shows vote choice between Biden and Haley by Biden job approval. Haley draws more voters from among Biden’s “somewhat approve” category and takes a substantial majority from the “somewhat disapprove” category—the only Republican candidate to do so.

Table 13: Biden vs. Haley vote, by Biden job approval

Among registered voters

Biden job approvalVote
Nikki HaleyJoe BidenHaven’t decided
Total53443
Strongly approve0973
Somewhat approve20753
Somewhat disapprove54415
Strongly disapprove9362
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Nikki Haley or for Joe Biden or haven’t you decided?
Question for those initially answering “Haven’t decided”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Haley?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Possible 3rd party candidates

The possibility of independent candidacies by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and by Cornel West has raised questions about their potential electoral strength and which of the major party candidates might lose more support to an independent candidate.

As the tables below show, Kennedy is much better liked by Republicans than by Democrats, and Republicans are much more likely to say they would definitely or probably vote for him if he were on the ballot in November. In contrast, a large proportion of Democrats say they would definitely not vote for Kennedy. Substantial proportions of independents and those undecided between the major party candidates say they might vote for Kennedy.

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. favorability and vote support

Kennedy is viewed favorably by 31%, and unfavorably by 39%, while 30% say they haven’t heard enough about him to have an opinion. Table 14 shows favorability to Kennedy by party identification. Kennedy is viewed much more favorably among Republicans than among Democrats, with independents less favorable than Republicans and considerably more likely to say they haven’t heard enough about Kennedy.

Table 14: Kennedy favorability, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDFavorability
FavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enoughDon’t know
Total3139301
Republican4821292
Independent3426400
Democrat1161271
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Robert F. Kennedy Jr or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

If Kennedy were to be included on the November ballot, 5% say they would definitely vote for him, 23% would probably vote for him, 29% would probably not vote for him, and 39% would definitely not vote for him. Table 15 shows potential support for Kennedy by party identification. Less than 10% of any partisan group say they would definitely vote for Kennedy, but 30% of Republicans and 36% of independents say they would probably vote for him. Only 4% of Democrats would definitely support Kennedy and 13% would probably support him.

Table 15: Consider voting for Kennedy, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDVote for Kennedy
Definitely vote for KennedyProbably vote for KennedyProbably not vote for KennedyDefinitely not vote for KennedyDon’t know
Total52329393
Republican63037253
Independent83626226
Democrat41323601
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the presidential ballot as an independent candidate, how likely would you be to vote for him instead of the Democratic or Republican candidates?

Table 16 shows potential vote for Kennedy by initial vote between Biden and Trump (with initial “Haven’t decided voters” listed separately in this table). Kennedy draws more “definite” and “probably” support from Trump voters than from Biden voters, while those undecided show a higher inclination to consider Kennedy. Few, however, are definite in their support for Kennedy.

Table 16: Consider voting for Kennedy, by initial Biden-Trump choice

Among registered voters

Initial Biden-Trump voteVote for Kennedy
Definitely vote for KennedyProbably vote for KennedyProbably not vote for KennedyDefinitely not vote for KennedyDon’t know
Total52329393
Donald Trump62938243
Joe Biden31421602
Haven’t decided113333203
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the presidential ballot as an independent candidate, how likely would you be to vote for him instead of the Democratic or Republican candidates?

Table 17 shows Kennedy support by Biden vs. DeSantis initial vote choice. The results are similar to those for the Biden vs. Trump table above, with Kennedy appearing more attractive to DeSantis voters than to Biden voters, while most attractive to those who are initially undecided between Biden and DeSantis.

Table 17: Consider voting for Kennedy, by initial Biden-DeSantis choice

Among registered voters

Biden-DeSantis voteVote for Kennedy
Definitely vote for KennedyProbably vote for KennedyProbably not vote for KennedyDefinitely not vote for KennedyDon’t know
Total52329393
Ron DeSantis52936272
Joe Biden41122621
Haven’t decided114330107
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the presidential ballot as an independent candidate, how likely would you be to vote for him instead of the Democratic or Republican candidates?

Possible support for Kennedy by initial choice between Biden and Haley is shown in Table 18. The results are also similar to those for DeSantis and Trump, with Haley voters more likely to consider Kennedy than are Biden voters.

Table 18: Consider voting for Kennedy, by initial Biden-Haley choice

Among registered voters

Biden-Haley voteVote for Kennedy
Definitely vote for KennedyProbably vote for KennedyProbably not vote for KennedyDefinitely not vote for KennedyDon’t know
Total52329393
Nikki Haley62933292
Joe Biden2924641
Haven’t decided83631205
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the presidential ballot as an independent candidate, how likely would you be to vote for him instead of the Democratic or Republican candidates?

Cornel West favorability

West is less well known than Kennedy, with 69% saying they haven’t heard enough about West to have an opinion. There is very little variation in favorability to West across party identification categories, as shown in Table 19.

Table 19: West favorability, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDFavorability
FavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enoughDon’t know
Total620695
Republican621686
Independent814717
Democrat621694
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Cornel West, or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Perceptions of Biden and Trump

Table 20 shows whether Biden or Trump is thought to do a better job on six issues. Trump is seen as better on immigration and border security, the economy, and, to a smaller degree, foreign relations. Biden is seen as slightly better on Medicare and Social Security, with a larger advantage on abortion policy and especially on climate change.

A substantial percentage say both candidates would be about the same or that neither would be good on each issue. These voters could change their minds over the course of the campaign, providing an opportunity for change in these perceptions.

Table 20: Which candidate would do a better job on issues

Among registered voters

IssueWho better
BidenTrumpBoth about the sameNeither goodDon’t know
Immigration and border security30507130
The economy3350890
Foreign relations39445120
Medicare and Social Security413712101
Abortion policy43349140
Climate change452810161
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Do you think Joe Biden or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues, they are both about the same or would neither be good on the issue?

Table 21 shows opinions on how well various phrases describe Biden and Trump. Biden particularly is seen as “too old to be president” compared to those who see Trump as too old. The column “Net describes” is the percent saying this describes the candidate very or somewhat well, minus the percent saying it does so not too well or not at all well. On age, a net 55% say this describes Biden, while a net 9% say this describes Trump.

On “shares your values,” slightly more say this describes Trump very well than Biden, but more are emphatic that this does not describe Trump for them than is the case for Biden. The net figure shows a small advantage to Biden over Trump, though more say each candidate does not share their values.

Corruption charges have been leveled against both candidates, but more people think “has behaved corruptly” does not describe Biden than think it does, while the “net” for Trump is +35, showing 35% more think this describes him than think this does not describe Trump.

On their records of accomplishment as president, Trump has a net of 0, showing equal numbers of people think “a strong record of accomplishment” describes him and think this does not describe him. For Biden, the net score is -17, showing more people don’t see a record of accomplishment by Biden than think he does have such a record.

Table 21: How well does this phrase describe Biden or Trump

Among registered voters

IssueHow well phrase describes
Net describesVery wellSomewhat wellNot too wellNot at all well
Is too old to be president
Biden5555221111
Trump925292421
Shares your values
Biden-818281539
Trump-1622201147
Has behaved corruptly
Biden-531161636
Trump3550171220
Strong record of accomplishments as president
Biden-1720211840
Trump033171535
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Joe Biden)(Donald Trump)?
“Net describes” column is ‘very well’ plus ‘somewhat well’ minus ‘not too well’ minus ‘not at all well’

Republican primary

Trump leads DeSantis in the GOP primary, with Haley in third place. Since June, Trump and Haley have gained support while DeSantis has declined substantially. Former Vice President Mike Pence suspended his campaign while the survey was being conducted. No candidate other than Trump, DeSantis, and Haley receives more than 3% support. Table 22 shows the full set of GOP primary preferences.

Table 22: Republican primary vote choice

Among Republican registered voters

Primary choiceSurvey wave
10/26-11/2/236/8-13/23
Donald Trump3831
Ron DeSantis1830
Nikki Haley113
Vivek Ramaswamy33
Mike Pence36
Chris Christie11
Tim Scott15
Doug Burgum10
Asa Hutchinson00
Larry Elder00
Haven’t decided2421
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Here are some candidates for the Republican presidential nomination. If the primary were today, whom would you vote for or haven’t you decided?
Note: Mike Pence suspended his campaign while the survey was being conducted.

Favorability of Trump, DeSantis, and Haley among Republican registered voters

Table 23 shows favorability to the three leading Republican candidates among Republican registered voters. All three candidates are viewed more favorably than unfavorably among Republican voters, though it is notable that DeSantis and especially Haley are still not universally known.

Table 23: Favorability to Trump, DeSantis and Haley among Republicans

Among Republican registered voters

CandidateFavorability
FavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enoughDon’t know
Donald Trump692830
Ron DeSantis7315111
Nikki Haley5418272
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Wisconsin topics

Right direction or wrong track

A majority of registered voters (62%) say the state is on the wrong track, while 36% say it is headed in the right direction. A slight majority of Democrats see the state headed in the right direction, while large majorities of independents and Republicans say the state is on the wrong track, as shown in Table 24.

Table 24: Right direction or wrong track by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDDirection of the state
Right directionWrong track
Total3662
Republican1979
Independent3169
Democrat5443
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?

Approval of governor, legislature, and state Supreme Court

Table 25 shows the approval ratings for Gov. Tony Evers, the Wisconsin legislature, and the Wisconsin Supreme Court. Evers’ approval is 53% and disapproval is 46%. In June, Evers’ approval was 57% and disapproval was 39%. The legislature and state Supreme Court were not measured in June.

Table 25: Approval of governor, the legislature, and state Supreme Court

Among registered voters

Approval of:Approval
ApproveDisapproveDon’t know
Tony Evers53462
The Wisconsin legislature40573
The Wisconsin state Supreme Court51435
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Wisconsin legislature is handling its job?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way the Wisconsin state Supreme Court is handling its job?

Favorability of state elected officials

Favorability ratings of Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Sen. Ron Johnson, Evers, and State Assembly Speaker Robin Vos are shown in Table 26. Vos is far less known statewide than are the others.

Table 26: Favorability to state elected officials

Among registered voters

Elected officialFavorability
FavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enoughDon’t know
Tammy Baldwin4143151
Ron Johnson4050101
Tony Evers504271
Robin Vos1636462
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of (INSERT NAME) or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

Supreme Court elections, redistricting and impeachment

Wisconsin Supreme Court election races have become much more partisan and competitive in recent years. A large majority of registered voters, 87%, say they prefer a system with elected state Supreme Court justices, while 12% would prefer to have appointed Supreme Court justices. Table 27 shows preference for election or appointment by party identification. There are small party differences, with large majorities favoring elected justices in each partisan group.

Table 27: Prefer elected or appointed state Supreme Court justices

Among registered voters

Party IDPreference
Better to have justices be electedBetter to have justices be appointedDon’t know
Total87121
Republican84142
Independent89100
Democrat90100
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Some states appoint state Supreme Court justices, and other states elect them. Do you think it is better to have state Supreme Court justices appointed or to have justices elected?

A similar majority of respondents, 80%, say that judicial candidates should talk about issues so voters know where they stand, while 19% say candidates should avoid talking about issues to avoid seeming to prejudge issues that might come before them. These results are shown by party in Table 28

Table 28: Should judicial candidates talk about issues during campaigns

Among registered voters

Party IDPreference
Discuss issuesAvoid discussing issues
Total8019
Republican7129
Independent8019
Democrat9010
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Should judicial candidates discuss during campaigns issues likely to come before them if elected so voters know what the candidates stand for, or should they avoid talking about such issues in order not to seem to be pre-judging the issues?

A case currently before the state Supreme Court could result in redrawing state legislative districts before the 2024 elections. A slight majority, 51%, say the current maps should remain in place until the next scheduled redistricting in 2031, while 45% want the maps redrawn now, and 4% say they don’t know. Opinion on this issue divides strongly along partisan lines, as shown in Table 29.

Table 29: Opinion on redistricting legislature now or in 2031

Among registered voters

Party IDPreference
Redraw district mapsKeep maps in placeDon’t know
Total45514
Republican19764
Independent42553
Democrat73234
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: A case currently before the state Supreme Court could require maps of the legislative districts for the state Senate and Assembly to be redrawn for upcoming elections. Do you favor redrawing the district maps or should the maps created prior to the 2022 elections remain in place until the next scheduled redistricting in 2031?

Earlier in the fall Republican legislators discussed the possibility of impeaching newly elected state Supreme Court Justice Janet Protasiewicz, though they have not moved forward with such an action. Among registered voters, 31% have heard a lot about a possible impeachment, 39% have heard a little, and 29% have heard nothing at all about this. Table 30 shows this by party, with Democrats more than twice as likely as Republicans to have heard a lot about a possible impeachment.

Table 30: How much have you heard about possible impeachment of Justice Protasiewicz

Among registered voters

Party IDAmount heard or read
A lotA littleNothing at allDon’t know
Total3139291
Republican2044341
Independent2045350
Democrat4632230
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: How much have you heard or read about calls by some Republican legislators to consider impeaching state Supreme Court Justice Janet Protasiewicz?

Aid to Ukraine and Israel and U.S. role in the world

In Wisconsin, 62% think it is better for the country if the U.S. plays an active role in world affairs, while 36% say it would be better to stay out of world affairs. Table 31 shows how these views differ by party identification. Independents are most likely to say the U.S. should stay out of world affairs. A small majority of Republicans say the U.S. should play an active part in the world, while 75% of Democrats favor an active role in the world.

Table 31: Better for U.S. to play active role in world or to stay out of world affairs

Among registered voters

Party IDRole in world
Take an active part in world affairsStay out of world affairsDon’t know
Total62361
Republican53461
Independent47491
Democrat75232
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Do you think it will be better for the future of the country if we take an active part in world affairs, or if we stay out of world affairs?

Twenty-eight percent says the U.S. is providing too much support to Israel in its war with Hamas in Gaza, while 23% say the U.S. is not giving enough support for Israel and 46% say about the right amount of support is being given to Israel. Table 32 shows how views of aid to Israel vary by party. Democrats are more likely to say the U.S. is giving too much support to Israel than are Republicans.

Table 32: Amount of U.S. support to Israel, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDSupport to Israel
Too much supportNot enough supportAbout the right amount of supportDon’t know
Total2823463
Republican1832454
Independent2928394
Democrat3712501
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Israel, not enough support to Israel, or about the right amount of support to Israel?

Asked about support for aid to Ukraine, 36% say the U.S. is giving too much support to Ukraine, 22% say not enough support is being given, and 41% say the amount of support is about right. Party differences on aid to Ukraine are the reverse of those for aid to Israel, with Republicans most likely to say too much support is being given to Ukraine and Democrats least likely to say this, as shown in Table 33.

Table 33: Amount of U.S. support to Ukraine, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDSupport to Ukraine
Too much supportNot enough supportAbout the right amount of supportDon’t know
Total3622411
Republican5513292
Independent4320361
Democrat1231551
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine?

Views of the economy and personal financial situation

The national economy is seen as excellent by only 3%, as good by 24%, as not so good by 36%, and as poor by 37%. These views of the economy differ sharply by party identification, as shown in Table 34.

Table 34: Views of the national economy, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDDescription of national economy
ExcellentGoodNot so goodPoor
Total3243637
Republican043461
Independent0193843
Democrat747379
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?

Among registered voters, 48% say they are living comfortably, while 36% say they are just getting by and 15% say they are struggling. Partisan differences in personal financial situation are shown in Table 35.

Table 35: Family financial situation, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDFamily financial situation
Living comfortablyJust getting byStruggling
Total483615
Republican424117
Independent294031
Democrat60319
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet?

Abortion opinion

A majority, 57%, oppose the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision in 2022 that overturned Roe v. Wade, while 35% favor that decision. Table 36 shows opinion by party, with a majority of Republicans in favor of overturning Roe while majorities of independents and Democrats are opposed.

Table 36: Favor or oppose overturning Roe v. Wade, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDOverturning Roe v. Wade
FavorOpposeHaven’t heard of decision
Total35576
Republican66265
Independent276010
Democrat5896
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: Do you favor or oppose the recent U.S. Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states?

Abortion remains one of the most important issues among Democrats, though less so among Republicans and independents, as shown in Table 37.

Table 37: Importance of the abortion issue by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDImportance of abortion issue
One of the most important issuesSomewhat importantNot very importantNot at all important
Total3842136
Republican28421911
Independent1959184
Democrat553761
Marquette Law School Poll, Wisconsin survey, Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023
Question: How important is the abortion issue to you–would you say it is one of the most important, somewhat important, not very important, or not important at all?

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This survey was conducted Oct. 26-Nov. 2, 2023, interviewing 908 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. The sample includes 402 Republicans and independents who lean Republican who were asked about their preferences in the Republican presidential primary, with a margin of error of +/-6.8 percentage points.

The survey was conducted with a hybrid sample of 690 respondents selected from the Wisconsin voter registration list and 218 selected from the SSRS Opinion Panel, a sample drawn from postal addresses across the state and invited to take part in surveys online. Interviews were conducted online with 693 respondents, while 215 interviews were conducted by telephone with a live interviewer. Full details of the methodology are contained in the methodology statement at the link below.

The partisan makeup of the sample is 30% Republican, 29% Democratic, and 41% independent. Since January 2020, the long-term partisan balance has been 30% Republican and 28% Democratic, with 41% independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results, and breakdowns by demographic groups are available on the Marquette Law Poll website.

New Marquette Law School national survey finds hypothetical Biden-Trump rematch remains close with candidates splitting registered, likely voter samples

Biden holds slight edge among likely voters against both Trump, DeSantis, but faces deficit among registered voters against each

Please note: Complete Poll results and methodology information can be found online at law.marquette.edu/poll

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds a close presidential race: former President Donald Trump receives 51% and President Joe Biden gets 48% among registered voters, while Biden has a 51% advantage over Trump’s 49% among likely voters—those who say they are certain they will vote in the presidential election. The difference in advantage shows how the outcome of the election may be determined by the success of respective efforts to mobilize voters over the coming 13 months.

Table 1 shows vote choice by how likely respondents say they are to vote. Those who say they are absolutely certain to vote make up 80% of registered voters and give Biden an edge, while the 20% of the sample who say they are less than certain to vote strongly favor Trump. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: Presidential vote, by likelihood of voting, September 2023

Among registered voters

Likelihood of votingVote
Donald TrumpJoe BidenWouldn’t vote
Total51480
Absolutely certain49510
Less than certain62371
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Sept. 18-25, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden?
Question for respondent initially selecting “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Trump or for Biden?
Question: What are the chances that you will vote in the November 2024 general election for president, Congress, and other offices — are you absolutely certain to vote, very likely to vote, are the chances 50-50, or don’t you think you will vote?

Biden is also favored among those who pay the most attention to politics, while Trump has the advantage among those less engaged by politics, as shown in Table 2.

Table 2: Presidential vote, by attention to politics, September 2023

Among registered voters

Attention to politicsVote
Donald TrumpJoe BidenWouldn’t vote
Total51480
Most of the time48520
Less often54451
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Sept. 18-25, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden?
Question for respondent initially selecting “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Trump or for Biden?
Question: Some people seem to follow what’s going on in politics most of the time, whether there’s an election going on or not. Others aren’t that interested. How often do you follow what’s going on in politics?

In contrast, those who say they are very or somewhat enthusiastic about the 2024 elections favor Trump, while those with less enthusiasm favor Biden, as shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Presidential vote, by enthusiasm about voting, September 2023

Among registered voters

EnthusiasmVote
Donald TrumpJoe BidenWouldn’t vote
Total51480
Very enthusiastic54460
Somewhat enthusiastic53470
Not too/not at all enthusiastic45531
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Sept. 18-25, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden?
Question for respondent initially selecting “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Trump or for Biden?
Question: How enthusiastic are you about voting in the elections in November 2024 for president and other offices? Would you say you are very, somewhat, not too, or not at all enthusiastic?

The Marquette Law School Poll has seen a close race among registered voters since May, with the trend shown in Table 4. Likely voters were identified for the first time in this cycle in the September poll, so that trend comparison is not available.

Table 4: Presidential vote choice, Biden v. Trump, May-September

Among registered voters

Poll datesVote
Donald TrumpJoe Biden
9/18-25/235148
7/7-12/235050
5/8-18/235247
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden?
Question for respondent initially selecting “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Trump or for Biden?

In a choice between Biden and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, DeSantis is the choice of 51% to Biden’s 48% among registered voters. Like against Trump, Biden holds a small edge among likely voters, with 51% compared to 48% for DeSantis. The trend among registered voters for the DeSantis–Biden choice is shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Presidential vote choice, Biden v. DeSantis, May-September

Among registered voters

Poll datesVote
Ron DeSantisJoe Biden
9/18-25/235148
7/7-12/235148
5/8-18/235248
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Ron DeSantis or for Joe Biden?
Question for respondent initially selecting “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose would you vote for Biden or for DeSantis?

Reluctant voters

A significant share of voters are initially reluctant to choose between Biden or Trump. The share of reluctant voters had remained around 20-25% since the head-to-head question was first posed in November 2021. In the current poll, it has declined modestly, with 12% who say they would vote for someone else and 4% who say they wouldn’t vote. The full trend is shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Reluctant to vote for Biden or Trump, Nov. 2021-Sept. 2023

Among registered voters

Poll datesInitial vote
Donald TrumpJoe BidenSomeone elseWouldn’t vote
9/18-25/234439124
7/7-12/233837195
5/8-18/234134197
3/13-22/233838204
1/9-20/234040173
11/15-22/223444194
9/7-14/223642193
3/14-24/223843164
1/10-21/223345184
11/1-10/213543184
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden?

When pressed to choose, almost all respondents will make a choice of Biden or Trump. In September, among initially reluctant registered voters, 10% said they would definitely pick Trump and 32% said they would probably vote for Trump, while 15% would definitely vote for Biden and 41% would probably support Biden.

The trend since May in choices among these “reluctant voters” (i.e., registered voters initially saying “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”) is shown in Table 7. Biden has had a small edge with these reluctant voters in each poll.

Table 7: Choice among initially reluctant voters, May-Sept. 2023

Among registered voters who initially don’t pick Biden or Trump

Poll datesVote when pushed to choose
Donald TrumpJoe Biden
9/18-25/234255
7/7-12/234851
5/8-18/234751
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?

To look at the characteristics of these reluctant voters, we can combine the May, July, and September polls.

Strength of party identification plays a strong role in reluctance to choose Biden or Trump. Over 60% of independents are reluctant to choose, but under 15% or either Republicans or Democrats are similarly reluctant. Independents who lean to a party are much less reluctant than independents who say they are not closer to either party, but they remain more reluctant than are partisans, as shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Reluctant to choose, by strength of party identification, May-September 2023

Among registered voters

Strength of party IDReluctant to choose
ReluctantNot reluctant
Total2278
Republican1486
Lean Republican2179
Independent6337
Lean Democrat3466
Democrat1288
Marquette Law School Poll, combined national surveys, May, July, September 2023

Those who follow politics most of the time are less reluctant than those who pay less attention, shown in Table 9.

Table 9: Reluctant to choose, by attention to politics, May-September 2023

Among registered voters

Attention to politicsReluctant to choose
ReluctantNot reluctant
Total2278
Most of the time1387
Less often2872
Marquette Law School Poll, combined national surveys, May, July, September 2023

Younger voters are more likely to express reluctance to choose between Biden and Trump—shown in Table 10—as are non-white voters—Table 11.

Table 10: Reluctant to choose, by age, May-September 2023

Among registered voters

AgeReluctant to choose
ReluctantNot reluctant
Total2278
18-293664
30-442377
45-592080
60+1783
Marquette Law School Poll, combined national surveys, May, July, September 2023

Table 11: Reluctant to choose, by race and ethnicity, May-September 2023

Among registered voters

Race & ethnicityReluctant to choose
ReluctantNot reluctant
Total2278
White1981
Black2872
Hispanic2476
Other/Multiple2575
Marquette Law School Poll, combined national surveys, May, July, September 2023

Feelings about the candidates themselves are, unsurprisingly, powerful. A substantial 22% say they have unfavorable views of both Biden and Trump, and this group is overwhelmingly reluctant to choose either candidate. Those with a favorable view of Trump and unfavorable view of Biden are especially less likely to be reluctant. Those favorable to Biden and unfavorable to Trump are somewhat more reluctant, though less than the overall average reluctance. The results are shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Reluctant to choose by favorability to Biden and Trump, May-September 2023

Among registered voters

Biden & Trump favorabilityReluctant to choose
ReluctantNot reluctant
Total2278
Biden fav, Trump unfav1288
Biden unfav, Trump fav595
Biden unfav, Trump unfav6238
Marquette Law School Poll, combined national surveys, May, July, September 2023

Views of third parties

While a number of voters express reluctance to choose one of the two major party candidates, there are other parties that regularly appear on the presidential ballot. Table 13 shows the favorability ratings for the Republican, Democratic, Libertarian, and Green parties, plus the “No Labels” political group. The major parties are far better known than the other groups, with the new “No Labels” group especially little known.

Table 13: Favorability ratings of parties

Registered voters

    PartyFavorability
Very favorableSomewhat favorableSomewhat unfavorableVery unfavorableHaven’t heard enough
The Democratic Party162620343
The Republican Party162719344
The Libertarian Party226231633
The Green Party317191744
The No Labels political group17111171
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Sept. 18-25, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following political organizations or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Candidate characteristics and issues

Registered voters view Trump as better able to handle the economy, immigration, inflation, creating jobs, and foreign relations, while Biden is seen as better at handling Medicare and Social Security, abortion policy, and climate change. A significant share say there is no difference or that neither candidate would be good on each issue. The full set of issues is shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Who would handle issues better

Registered voters

IssueWho better on issue
BidenTrumpBoth about the sameNeither good
Inflation27501112
The economy2852911
Immigration and border security2852713
Creating jobs3049129
Foreign relations3843711
Medicare & Social Security39371112
Abortion policy4334914
Climate change44241518
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Sept. 18-25, 2023
Question: Do you think Joe Biden or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues?

Age of the candidates has received a lot of attention, but the perceptions of each candidate’s characteristics vary quite a lot. Table 15 shows how people describe Biden and Table 16 shows the same for Trump.

Table 15: How well does the phrase describe Biden

Registered voters (Sorted by % “Very well”)

DescriptionHow well describes
Very wellSomewhat wellNot too wellNot at all well
Has a strong record of accomplishments as president15252238
Understands the problems of ordinary people17241939
Shares your values17261740
Has behaved corruptly29162530
Is too old to be president5324139
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Sept. 18-25, 2023
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe Joe Biden?

Table 16: How well does the phrase describe Trump

Registered voters (Sorted by % “Very well”)

DescriptionHow well describes
Very wellSomewhat wellNot too wellNot at all well
Understands the problems of ordinary people20241443
Shares your values21241243
Is too old to be president22302721
Has a strong record of accomplishments as president32191633
Has behaved corruptly44171820
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Sept. 18-25, 2023
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe Donald Trump?

Economic perceptions

Registered voters have a negative view of the economy, with 32% rating it poor and 45% saying “not so good,” while 20% say it is good and only 3% say it is excellent. Republicans and independents are quite negative and Democrats somewhat more positive. Table 17 shows opinion of the economy overall and by party identification.

Table 17: View of the economy, by party identification, September 2023

Among registered voters

Party IDView of the economy
ExcellentGoodNot so goodPoor
Total3204532
Republican154252
Independent196327
Democrat6354514
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Sept. 18-25, 2023

Partisanship also strongly affects views of the economy regardless of respondent’s personal financial situation. Table 18 shows views of the economy by family financial situation and by party.

Table 18: View of the economy, by financial situation and by party identification

Among registered voters

Financial situationView of the ecconomy
ExcellentGoodNot so goodPoor
Living comfortably
Republican194942
Independent0116919
Democrat1156294
Just getting by
Republican154548
Independent2126225
Democrat3235518
Struggling
Republican012178
Independent015544
Democrat0145728
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Sept. 18-25, 2023
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?
Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet?

Respondents are more likely to say they have paid a lot of attention to news about inflation than to news about unemployment. The survey asks about the latest estimates of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the unemployment rate for the most recent month available at the time of the survey, August in this case. Table 19 shows attention paid to this news for inflation and for unemployment.

Table 19: How much heard about economic news

Registered voters

  IssueHow much heard or read
A lotA littleNothing at all
Inflation rate494010
Unemployment rate255520
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Sept. 18-25, 2023
Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? News reports that consumer prices (inflation) rose by 3.7% over the past 12 months (as of August)
Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? News reports that the unemployment rate was 3.8% (as of August)

Attention to news

In addition to economic news, the survey asked how much respondents had heard or read about the indictment of Hunter Biden, Trump’s four indictments and pending trials, and the House of Representatives opening an impeachment inquiry into Joe Biden. These are shown in Table 20.

Table 20: How much heard about indictments and impeachment inquiry

Registered voters

  IssueHow much heard or read
A lotA littleNothing at all
Trump indictments78203
Hunter Biden indictment49439
Impeachment inquiry414316
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Sept. 18-25, 2023
Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? Donald Trump’s indictments and pending trials in four cases in New York, Florida, Washington D.C., and Georgia
Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? A special counsel’s indictment of Hunter Biden
Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? The House of Representatives opening a formal impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden

Asked about the indictment of Trump in federal court in the District of Columbia in connection with his actions following the 2020 election, 52% say Trump dd something illegal, 24% say he did something wrong but not illegal, and 24% say he did nothing wrong. Table 21 shows these results by party identification, where sharp differences of opinion appear.

Table 21: View of Trump indictment in connection with efforts to overturn 2020 election, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDOpinion of Trump’s actions
Something illegalSomething wrong but not illegalHe didn’t do anything wrong
Total522424
Republican133750
Independent503812
Democrat89101
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Sept. 18-25, 2023
Question: As you may know, Donald Trump has been indicted by the federal government concerning his actions following the 2020 vote. In connection with those actions, do you think Trump did something illegal, he did something wrong but not illegal, or do you think he didn’t do anything wrong?

Among all registered voters, 59% say the the Department of Justice’s treatment of Donald Trump has been motivated by partisan politics, while 41% say it has not been motivated by partisan politics. Table 22 shows these views by party identification.

Table 22: Is Department of Justice treatment of Trump motivated by partisan politics, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDOpinion of DOJ motivation
Motivated by partisan politicsIs not motivated by partisan politics
Total5941
Republican8515
Independent6334
Democrat3367
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Sept. 18-25, 2023
Question: Do you think the Department of Justice’s treatment of Donald Trump is motivated by partisan politics, or not?

The House of Representatives impeachment inquiry concerns Joe Biden’s conduct in relation to his son Hunter’s business dealings. Among registered voters, 47% say Joe Biden did something illegal related to that business, 27% say he did something wrong but not illegal, and 25% say he did nothing wrong. These views are shown by party identification in Table 23.

Table 23: Did Joe Biden do something illegal related to his son’s business, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDOpinion of Biden conduct
Something illegalSomething wrong but not illegalHe didn’t do anything wrong
Total472725
Republican82153
Independent453717
Democrat153749
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Sept. 18-25, 2023
Question: Related to his son’s business dealings, do you think Joe Biden did something illegal, he did something wrong but not illegal, or do you think he didn’t do anything wrong?

Primary preferences

Table 24 shows the preferences for the Republican nomination for president among registered voters who are Republican or independents who lean Republican. In September, Trump’s support has increased compared to July, while DeSantis’s support has continued to decline, as it has since his high point in March, but he remains in second place. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley now appears to be in third place but remains in single digits. (This poll was completed before the second GOP debate on September 27th.)

Table 24: Support for Republican 2024 presidential nomination

Among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

CandidatePoll dates
9/18-25/237/7-12/235/8-18/233/13-22/23
Donald Trump56464640
Ron DeSantis12222535
Nikki Haley6645
Vivek Ramaswamy413
Mike Pence4725
Tim Scott241*
Chris Christie111*
Doug Burgum*1
Larry Elder**1
Will Hurd**
Asa Hutchinson01**
Perry Johnson0
Undecided/Other15121612
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Sept. 18-25, 2023 *less than .5%, – Not included in poll
Question: Here are some candidates for the Republican presidential nomination. If the primary were today, whom would you vote for?

Among registered voters who are Democrats or independents who lean Democratic (hereafter “Democratic voters”), Biden is the choice for the nomination of 53%, with 12% for Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 3% for Marianne Williamson, and 31% who are undecided. There has been little change in preferences since July, as shown in Table 25.

Table 25: Support for Democratic 2024 presidential nomination

Among registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic

CandidatePoll dates
9/18-25/237/7-12/235/8-18/23
Joe Biden535451
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.121413
Marianne Williamson366
Undecided312730
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Sept. 18-25, 2023
Question: Here are some candidates for the Democratic presidential nomination. If the primary were today, whom would you vote for?

Approval of how Biden is handling his job as president declined to 39% in September, from 42% in July. Disapproval was 61%, up from 57% in July. The full trend for Biden job approval in the Marquette Law School Poll is shown in Table 26. Note that approval is measured among all adults, not registered voters only.

Table 26: Approval of Biden’s handling his job as president

Among adults

Poll datesBiden job approval
ApproveDisapprove
9/18-25/233961
7/7-12/234257
5/8-18/233961
3/13-22/233961
1/9-20/234356
11/15-22/224555
9/7-14/224555
7/5-12/223664
5/9-19/224257
3/14-24/224455
1/10-21/224653
11/1-10/214951
9/7-16/214852
7/16-26/215842
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Sept. 18-25, 2023
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted Sept. 18-25, 2023, interviewing 868 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points. For likely voters. the sample size is 690 with a margin of error is +/-4.9 percentage points. For registered voters who are Republican or independents who lean Republican, the sample size in 381 and the margin of error is +/-6.7 percentage points; for registered voters who are Democrats or independents who lean Democratic, the sample size is 400 and the margin of error is +/-6.3 percentage points. Presidential job approval is measured among all adults regardless of registration status. For the adult sample the sample size is 1007 respondents nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.1 percentage points.  See the methodology statement for weighted and unweighted sample sizes.

Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. Certain other data from this survey (focusing on those about public views of the Supreme Court) were released yesterday, on Oct. 4. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available at the Marquette Law Poll website.