MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has pulled into a tie with President Joe Biden in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, with each receiving 42% support from registered voters nationwide. DeSantis has increased his support in polling since January, while Biden’s support has remained stable. Some 15% say they would prefer someone else or would not vote. The trend in support is shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Ron DeSantis or for Joe Biden? (among registered voters)

Poll dates	Ron DeSantis	Joe Biden	Someone else	Wouldn’t vote
1/10-21/22	34	43	17	5
3/14-24/22	35	39	19	5
9/7-14/22	38	43	15	5
11/15-22/22	42	42	11	4

Biden continues to lead former President Donald Trump in a 2024 rematch with 44% to Trump’s 34%, while 23% say they prefer someone else or would not vote. The trend in preference between Biden and Trump is shown in Table 2.

 

Table 2: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden? (among registered voters)

Poll dates	Donald Trump	Joe Biden	Someone else	Wouldn’t vote
11/1-10/21	35	43	18	4
1/10-21/22	33	45	18	4
3/14-24/22	38	43	16	4
9/7-14/22	36	42	19	3
11/15-22/22	34	44	19	4

The survey was conducted Nov. 15-22, 2022, interviewing 1,004 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points. The survey included 840 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. The Republican subsample has a margin of error of +/-6.1 percentage points, and the Democratic subsample margin of error is +/-5.6 percentage points.

Both Republicans and Democrats are divided over Trump or Biden as their party’s nominee in 2024. Among Republicans and independents who lean Republican (hereafter “Republicans”), 55% would like to see Trump run in 2024, while 45% said they would not like him to run. (Trump announced his candidacy for the 2024 Republican nomination on Nov. 15.) In the immediate previous national Marquette poll in September, 60% wanted Trump to run and 40% did not. The full trend since November 2021 is shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Would you like to see Donald Trump run for president in 2024, or not? (among Republican and independents who lean Republican registered voters)

Poll dates	Yes	No
11/1-10/21	60	40
1/10-21/22	56	44
3/14-24/22	61	39
5/9-19/22	61	38
7/5-12/22	64	35
9/7-14/22	60	40
11/15-22/22	55	45

Among registered voters who are Democrats or independents who lean Democratic (hereafter “Democrats”), 49% would like to see Biden run in 2024 and 51% would not. In September, 44% wanted him to run and 56% did not. This question had not been asked before September.

Among Republican registered voters, DeSantis has become steadily better known and seen more favorably since January, with 68% holding a favorable opinion, 10% unfavorable, and 22% saying they don’t know enough to give a rating. In January, 57% were favorable, 9% were unfavorable, and 34% lacked an opinion of DeSantis. The full trend is shown in Table 4.

 

Table 4: Ron DeSantis: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? (among Republicans and independents who lean Republican registered voters)

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
1/10-21/22	57	9	34
3/14-24/22	57	7	35
5/9-19/22	58	15	27
7/5-12/22	62	9	29
9/7-14/22	65	10	25
11/15-22/22	68	10	22

Among Republican registered voters, Trump is seen favorably by 67% and unfavorably by 32%, with 1% failing to give an opinion. Trump’s recent high-water mark for favorability was in July when 76% had a favorable opinion and 22% an unfavorable opinion. The full trend since Nov. 2021 is shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Donald Trump: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? (among Republican and independents who lean Republican registered voters)

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
11/1-10/21	70	29	1
1/10-21/22	71	28	1
3/14-24/22	75	23	1
5/9-19/22	75	22	2
7/5-12/22	76	22	2
9/7-14/22	74	25	1
11/15-22/22	67	32	1

Former Vice President Mike Pence is seen favorably by 51% of Republicans and unfavorably by 40%, with 9% failing to give an opinion. Pence’s favorable rating has declined and unfavorable increased since November 2021, as shown in Table 6.

 

Table 6: Mike Pence: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion? (among Republican and independents who lean Republican registered voters)

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
11/1-10/21	65	21	14
1/10-21/22	57	31	12
3/14-24/22	59	28	13
5/9-19/22	50	34	16
7/5-12/22	49	31	20
9/7-14/22	54	32	14
11/15-22/22	51	40	9

DeSantis appeals to many of Trump’s GOP supporters, being seen favorably among Republicans who are also favorable to Trump, and, to a lesser but still-notable degree, he is also seen favorably among those unfavorable to Trump. Table 7 shows the relationship between Trump and DeSantis favorability, among Republican registered voters.

Table 7: Favorability to DeSantis by favorability to Trump (among Republican and independents who lean Republican registered voters)

Trump Favorability	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Favorable opinion	76	4	20
Unfavorable opinion	51	23	27

This high favorability does not carry over to opinion of Trump’s former vice president, Pence. In this case, just over half of Republicans who have a favorable opinion of Trump are also favorable to Pence, while 39% are unfavorable to him. Favorability to Pence is evenly divided among those Republicans who are unfavorable to Trump: 44% are favorable to Pence and 45% unfavorable, as shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Favorability to Pence by favorability to Trump (among Republican and independents who lean Republican registered voters)

Trump Favorability	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Favorable opinion	54	39	8
Unfavorable opinion	44	45	10

Issues for 2023

Survey respondents were asked if they favor or oppose each of 20 policy proposals drawn from recent Republican and Democratic congressional policy statements. The most popular issue is “limit the cost of prescription drugs,” favored by 92% of all adult respondents. This issue is the top choice among independents and Democrats and has the third highest support among Republicans. The least popular of the 20 proposals is “require Congress to reauthorize Social Security and Medicare every five years, rather than let the programs continue automatically,” favored by 32% and opposed by 68% among all respondents. This proposal ranks last among Republicans, is 4th from the bottom with Democrats, and 3rd from the bottom with independents.

The support for all 20 policies is shown in Table 9 for all adults, and in Table 10 through Table 12 for Republicans, Democrats, and independents. The preferences differ substantially by party, although some policies rank relatively high across partisan groups. In addition to limiting prescription drug costs, “pass a new voting rights law to protect every citizen’s right to vote” ranks 7th with Republicans and 2nd with both Democrats and independents. Among the largest partisan divides is “pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy,” which ranks 8th with 69% support among Republicans, but 18th among Democrats (19% support) and 17th with independents (40% support.) “Impeach Joe Biden” is also sharply partisan, as the 9th ranked issue among Republicans but the bottom-ranked with Democrats and 19th of 20 with independents.

Table 9: Here are things some people wish Congress would do next year. Regardless of whether you think Congress will actually do these things, which would you favor and which would you oppose?

Issue	Favor	Oppose
Limit the cost of prescription drugs	92	8
Pass a new voting rights law to protect every citizen’s right to vote	84	16
Increase federal aid to states and school districts to increase teacher compensation	78	22
Provide a tax credit to pay for tuition at two-year colleges and technical schools	77	23
Increase tax credits for low-income workers	75	25
Increase taxes on incomes over $500,000	74	26
Increase production of oil and gas in the U.S.	74	26
Increase funding for renewable energy production, such as wind and solar	74	26
Create federal subsidies for childcare costs	73	27
Pass laws making it easier for workers to form unions	70	30
Increase efforts to stop illegal immigration along the southern border	69	31
Fund hiring of 200,000 more police officers nationwide	67	33
Conduct a congressional investigation of the FBI	59	41
Provide national funding for vouchers allowing K-12 students to attend private or religious schools	55	44
Ban transgender athletes from sports competition	51	48
Sharply reduce U.S. military aid to Ukraine	45	55
Pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy	41	59
Impeach Joe Biden	34	66
Block confirmation of any federal judges nominated by Joe Biden	34	66
Require Congress to reauthorize Social Security and Medicare every five years, rather than let the programs continue automatically	32	68

 

Table 10: Among Republicans: Here are things some people wish Congress would do next year. Regardless of whether you think Congress will actually do these things, which would you favor and which would you oppose?

Issue	Favor	Oppose
Increase efforts to stop illegal immigration along the southern border	94	6
Increase production of oil and gas in the U.S.	93	7
Limit the cost of prescription drugs	89	11
Fund hiring of 200,000 more police officers nationwide	83	17
Conduct a congressional investigation of the FBI	80	20
Ban transgender athletes from sports competition	79	21
Pass a new voting rights law to protect every citizen’s right to vote	72	27
Pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy	69	31
Impeach Joe Biden	67	33
Provide national funding for vouchers allowing K-12 students to attend private or religious schools	67	33
Block confirmation of any federal judges nominated by Joe Biden	66	34
Increase tax credits for low-income workers	65	35
Increase federal aid to states and school districts to increase teacher compensation	61	39
Provide a tax credit to pay for tuition at two-year colleges and technical schools	61	39
Sharply reduce U.S. military aid to Ukraine	58	42
Create federal subsidies for childcare costs	56	44
Increase taxes on incomes over $500,000	53	47
Increase funding for renewable energy production, such as wind and solar	49	51
Pass laws making it easier for workers to form unions	47	53
Require Congress to reauthorize Social Security and Medicare every five years, rather than let the programs continue automatically	40	60

Table 11: Among Democrats: Here are things some people wish Congress would do next year. Regardless of whether you think Congress will actually do these things, which would you favor and which would you oppose?

Issue	Favor	Oppose
Limit the cost of prescription drugs	96	4
Pass a new voting rights law to protect every citizen’s right to vote	94	6
Increase funding for renewable energy production, such as wind and solar	92	8
Increase taxes on incomes over $500,000	91	9
Increase federal aid to states and school districts to increase teacher compensation	90	10
Provide a tax credit to pay for tuition at two-year colleges and technical schools	90	10
Pass laws making it easier for workers to form unions	89	10
Create federal subsidies for childcare costs	84	16
Increase tax credits for low-income workers	84	16
Increase production of oil and gas in the U.S.	58	42
Fund hiring of 200,000 more police officers nationwide	57	43
Increase efforts to stop illegal immigration along the southern border	51	49
Provide national funding for vouchers allowing K-12 students to attend private or religious schools	45	55
Conduct a congressional investigation of the FBI	42	58
Sharply reduce U.S. military aid to Ukraine	34	66
Ban transgender athletes from sports competition	28	71
Require Congress to reauthorize Social Security and Medicare every five years, rather than let the programs continue automatically	23	77
Pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy	19	81
Block confirmation of any federal judges nominated by Joe Biden	9	91
Impeach Joe Biden	7	93

 

Table 12: Among independents: Here are things some people wish Congress would do next year. Regardless of whether you think Congress will actually do these things, which would you favor and which would you oppose?

Issue	Favor	Oppose
Limit the cost of prescription drugs	87	13
Pass a new voting rights law to protect every citizen’s right to vote	84	16
Increase federal aid to states and school districts to increase teacher compensation	81	19
Create federal subsidies for childcare costs	80	20
Increase funding for renewable energy production, such as wind and solar	78	22
Provide a tax credit to pay for tuition at two-year colleges and technical schools	78	21
Increase taxes on incomes over $500,000	75	24
Increase production of oil and gas in the U.S.	74	24
Increase tax credits for low-income workers	71	29
Pass laws making it easier for workers to form unions	67	32
Conduct a congressional investigation of the FBI	61	39
Increase efforts to stop illegal immigration along the southern border	60	40
Provide national funding for vouchers allowing K-12 students to attend private or religious schools	59	40
Fund hiring of 200,000 more police officers nationwide	56	43
Ban transgender athletes from sports competition	51	49
Sharply reduce U.S. military aid to Ukraine	47	52
Pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy	40	60
Require Congress to reauthorize Social Security and Medicare every five years, rather than let the programs continue automatically	37	63
Impeach Joe Biden	32	68
Block confirmation of any federal judges nominated by Joe Biden	27	73

Aid to Ukraine

A substantial percentage of respondents, 70%, say they have heard a lot about the Russian invasion of Ukraine, while 23% say they have heard a little and 7% have heard nothing at all. Table 13 shows exposure to news about this overall and by party identification. Republicans and Democrats report equal exposure to news about the Ukraine conflict, while independents report substantially less exposure.

 

Table 13: The Russian invasion of Ukraine: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these?

Party ID	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
Total	70	23	7
Republican	73	22	5
Independent	51	33	16
Democrat	74	20	6

U.S. military aid to Ukraine has emerged as a bit of a partisan divide in recent months. Table 14 shows overall opinion and by party (taken from the tables above.)

Table 14: Sharply reduce U.S. military aid to Ukraine: Here are things some people wish Congress would do next year. Regardless of whether you think Congress will actually do these things, which would you favor and which would you oppose?

Party ID	Favor reducing aid	Oppose
Total	45	55
Republican	58	42
Independent	47	52
Democrat	34	66

These results shift somewhat when the issue is framed differently, later in the survey. There the question explicitly mentions that Russia invaded Ukraine: “When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine?”

Table 15 shows that with this framing, explicitly mentioning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there is less of a view, both overall and in each partisan category, that the U.S. is providing too much support, than with the previous “sharply reduce” framing that did not mention the Russian invasion. Almost half of Republicans (48%) say there is too much U.S. support, while 36% of independents and 17% of Democrats say the U.S. is providing too much support. Only a little over 20% of each partisan group say the U.S. is not providing enough support.

Table 15: When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine? (in percentages)

Party ID	Too much support	Not enough support	About the right amount of support
Total	32	23	45
Republican	48	21	31
Independent	36	20	43
Democrat	17	26	57

Respondents say that what happens in the Russia-Ukraine conflict matters to life in the United States, with fewer than 20% of all respondents, and fewer than 25% in all partisan groups, saying the conflicts matter “not much” or “not at all” to life in the United States. More than a third say it matters “a great deal” and around 40% say it matters “some,” as shown in Table 16.

Table 16: How much do you think what happens in the Russia-Ukraine conflict matters to life in the United States?

Party ID	A great deal	Some	Not much	Not at all
Total	39	42	14	5
Republican	34	43	16	6
Independent	37	39	17	6
Democrat	43	42	10	4

On the more general question of U.S. involvement in world affairs, 60% say it is better for the country to take an active part, whereas 40% say the U.S. should stay out of world affairs. Independents are especially skeptical of U.S. involvement in the world, with 56% saying we should stay out, and a minority, 44%, saying we should take an active part. Republicans are on balance in favor of international involvement, and Democrats are especially so, as shown in Table 17.

Table 17: Do you think it will be better for the future of the country if we take an active part in world affairs, or if we stay out of world affairs?

Party ID	Take an active part in world affairs	Stay out of world affairs
Total	60	40
Republican	55	45
Independent	44	56
Democrat	70	30

Confidence in the 2022 and 2020 elections

Seventy-one percent say they are very or somewhat confident in the accuracy of the 2022 elections, while 29% are not too or not at all confident in the results. Republicans remain less confident in election outcomes than are independents or Democrats, as shown in Table 18.

Table 18: How confident are you that, across the country, the votes for state and national offices were accurately cast and counted in the elections this November, 2022?

Party ID	Very confident	Somewhat confident	Not too confident	Not at all confident
Total	37	34	21	8
Republican	14	36	33	16
Independent	23	39	29	10
Democrat	61	30	9	1

Doubts about the 2020 election, especially among Republicans, are higher than for the 2022 vote. Table 19 shows confidence in the 2020 election in total and by party.

 

Table 19: How confident are you that, across the country, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election?

Party ID	Very confident	Somewhat confident	Not too confident	Not at all confident
Total	39	25	17	18
Republican	13	26	25	36
Independent	21	37	29	13
Democrat	68	21	7	4

Biden job approval

Biden’s job approval is unchanged since September at 45% approval and 55% disapproval. The trend in presidential approval since July 2021 is shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
7/16-26/21	58	42
9/7-16/21	48	52
11/1-10/21	49	51
1/10-21/22	46	53
3/14-24/22	44	55
5/9-19/22	42	57
7/5-12/22	36	64
9/7-14/22	45	55
11/15-22/22	45	55

Presidential favorability, past and present

Favorability to the current and recent past presidents shows considerable variation in overall opinion and by party, among adults nationwide.

Biden’s favorability rating closely resembles his job approval, as shown in Table 21, and shows large partisan differences. Biden is seen positively among Democrats, but independents and Republicans are quite unfavorable to him.

 

Table 21: Joe Biden: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Party ID	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Total	43	53	3
Republican	6	92	2
Independent	31	58	11
Democrat	78	20	2

Trump has lower favorable ratings than Biden overall and is also less favorably viewed among Republicans than Biden is viewed among Democrats. Independents are also more unfavorable to Trump than to Biden. Democrats are as negative towards Trump as Republicans are towards Biden. Table 22 shows these details.

Table 22: Donald Trump: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Party ID	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Total	32	66	2
Republican	66	32	2
Independent	26	66	8
Democrat	5	95	0

Two other former presidents, Barack Obama and George W. Bush, are seen more favorably by the public than are the current or immediately previous presidents. Obama is viewed favorably by 62% and unfavorably by 34% of all adults. He is seen favorably by one-in-four Republicans, far more than see Biden in that light, and by substantial majorities of independents and Democrats, as shown in Table 23.

Table 23: Barack Obama: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Party ID	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Total	62	34	4
Republican	25	73	3
Independent	63	28	8
Democrat	93	5	3

Former President Bush is seen favorably by 51% and unfavorably by 40% of adults. A majority of Republicans and a plurality of Democrats see him favorably, though independents are more unfavorable than favorable, as shown in Table 24.

 

Table 24: George W. Bush: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Party ID	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Total	51	40	9
Republican	59	34	7
Independent	36	45	18
Democrat	49	43	8

Secret documents at Mar-a-Lago

The investigation of Trump’s possession of classified documents at Mar-a-Lago continues, with courts considering various issues. Among the public, 66% say they believe Trump had top-secret and other classified material at his Florida home, while 34% do not believe this. In September, 67% believed he had secret documents and 34% did not believe that.

Table 25 shows how these beliefs differ by party in the November survey.

Table 25: Do you believe Donald Trump had top secret and other classified material or national security documents at his home in Mar-a-Lago this summer?

Party ID	Yes	No
Total	66	34
Republican	34	66
Independent	64	36
Democrat	93	7

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted Nov. 15-22, 2022, interviewing 1,004 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points, and 840 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. The Republican subsample of 368 respondents has a margin of error of +/-6.1 percentage points and the Democratic subsample of 383 respondents has a margin of error is +/-5.6 percentage points.

Certain other data from this survey (those about public views of the Supreme Court) were released yesterday, Nov. 30, and can be found on the Marquette Law School Poll website.

Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law School Poll website.

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds 44% of adults approve of the job the U.S. Supreme Court is doing, while 56% disapprove. In September, 40% approved and 60% disapproved. Approval declined sharply between July and September 2021, then fell further in May 2022 following the leaked draft opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health, the decision in June overturning Roe v. Wade, which had permitted abortion nationwide. The trend in approval of the Court since 2020 is shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove	Skipped/Ref
9/8-15/20	66	33	1
7/16-26/21	60	39	1
9/7-16/21	49	50	1
11/1-10/21	54	46	1
1/10-21/22	52	46	2
3/14-24/22	54	45	1
5/9-19/22	44	55	1
7/5-12/22	38	61	1
9/7-14/22	40	60	0
11/15-22/22	44	56	0

Approval of the Court is quite high among Republicans, among whom 70% approve and 30% disapprove. Among independents, however, 40% approve and 60% disapprove. Among Democrats, 28% approve and 72% disapprove.

The latest Marquette Law School Supreme Court Survey was conducted Nov. 15-22, 2022. The survey interviewed 1,004 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points.

In the current term, the Court will hear cases on whether race may be considered in college admissions, whether religious beliefs and free speech rights entitle businesses to deny some services to LGTBQ customers, and how states can set the rules for federal elections, among other cases.

The Marquette survey finds that the public is skeptical of the use of race in college admissions, with 41% in favor of a decision that would find a legal ban on the use of race and 16% opposed. The case is not yet on the top of mind for most respondents, however, with 42% saying they haven’t heard anything about such a case or haven’t heard not enough to have an opinion.

Marquette polling since September 2021 has shown a consistent opposition among the public to the use of race in admissions, as shown in Table 2. Those saying they haven’t heard or haven’t heard enough increased over the summer, from 33% in March to 50% in September. Table 2 (a) shows views including those who have not heard enough about the issue, and Table 2 (b) shows the percentages for only those with an opinion.

Table 2: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Rule that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit.

(a) Among all respondents

Poll dates	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor	Oppose
9/7-16/21	33	53	13
3/14-24/22	33	49	17
9/7-14/22	50	37	13
11/15-22/22	42	41	16

(b) Among those with an opinion

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
9/7-16/21	81	19
3/14-24/22	75	25
9/7-14/22	74	26
11/15-22/22	72	28

While large percentages say they haven’t heard enough about the college admissions case, more respondents within each race and ethnic group favor banning use of race as a factor in admissions than think consideration of race should continue to be permitted. Table 3 (a) shows views including those who have not heard enough about the issue, and Table 3 (b) shows the percentages for only those with an opinion.

Table 3: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Rule that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit. By race of the respondent.

• (a)   Among all respondents

Race & ethnicity	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor	Oppose
White	38	45	16
Black	52	27	21
Hispanic	49	37	13
Other/Multiple	43	48	9

(b) Among those with an opinion

Race & ethnicity	Favor	Oppose
White	73	27
Black	56	44
Hispanic	74	26
Other/Multiple	84	16

The margins favoring an end to allowing race as a factor in admissions are larger among those who see racism as less of a problem in the country today than among those who see racism as a bigger problem. Yet even those who say racism is a very big problem more favor ending the consideration of race in admissions than continuing its use. Among those with an opinion on this case, majorities in each group also favor ending the consideration of race in admissions, as shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Rule that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit. By view of how big a problem is racism.

• (b)   Among all respondents

How big a problem is racism	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor	Oppose
A very big problem	49	27	23
A moderately big problem	43	41	15
A small problem/not a problem at all	32	60	8

How big a problem is racism	Favor	Oppose
A very big problem	54	46
A moderately big problem	73	27
A small problem/not a problem at all	88	12

There are substantial partisan differences on this issue, but, within every partisan group, more favor ending the consideration of race than support its continued use, as shown in Table 5

Table 5: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Rule that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit. By party identification.

(a) Among all respondents

Party ID	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor	Oppose
Republican	37	54	9
Lean Republican	27	61	11
Independent	52	34	14
Lean Democrat	48	36	16
Democrat	46	29	25

(b) Among those with an opinion

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	86	14
Lean Republican	85	15
Independent	70	30
Lean Democrat	69	31
Democrat	53	47

Another case set for argument on Dec. 5, 303 Creative LLC v. Elenis, poses the question whether the religious beliefs or free speech rights of business owners can justify refusing to provide some services to LGBTQ customers. Among those surveyed in this national Marquette poll, a plurality, 40%, oppose allowing a business to refuse services, while 25% favor a ruling that would permit a business to do this. As with college admissions, a substantial group, 35% in this instance, has not heard of this case or has not heard enough to have an opinion. The trend in opinion on this question is shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Decide that a business owner’s religious beliefs or free speech rights can justify refusing some services to gay people.

(a) Among all respondents

Poll dates	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor	Oppose
3/14-24/22	29	28	43
9/7-14/22	44	21	35
11/15-22/22	35	25	40

(b) Among those with an opinion

Poll dates	Heard of and favor	Heard of and oppose
3/14-24/22	39	61
9/7-14/22	37	63
11/15-22/22	39	61

Those who favor the Court’s 2015 decision finding a constitutional right to same-sex marriage are strongly opposed to allowing businesses to refuse services, while those who oppose same-sex marriage favor allowing businesses to choose not to provide services, as shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Decide that a business owner’s religious beliefs or free speech rights can justify refusing some services to gay people. By opinion of same-sex marriage ruling.

(a) Among all respondents

Opinion on same sex marriage ruling	Heard nothing/not heard enough	Favor	Oppose
Favor	35	15	50
Oppose	34	53	13

(b) Among those with an opinion

Favor/oppose same sex marriage ruling	Favor the possible decision	Oppose the possible decision
Favor	23	77
Oppose	80	20

Those who identify as born-again Protestants are strongly in favor of allowing businesses to deny services, but mainline Protestants, Roman Catholics, members of other religions, and those with no religion are opposed to allowing businesses to choose not to serve gay or lesbian customers, shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Decide that a business owner’s religious beliefs or free speech rights can justify refusing some services to gay people. By religion.

(a) Among all respondents

Religion	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor	Oppose
Born-again Protestant	40	44	16
Mainline Protestant	34	25	41
Roman Catholic	39	22	39
No religion	28	17	55
Other religion	35	24	40

(b) Among those with an opinion

Religion	Favor the possible decision	Oppose the possible decision
Born-again Protestant	73	27
Mainline Protestant	38	62
Roman Catholic	35	65
No religion	23	77
Other religion	38	62

On Dec. 7, 2022, the Court will hear arguments in Moore v. Harper, addressing the “independent state legislature” theory, which holds that, under the Constitution, only the state legislature has the power to regulate congressional elections in a state, and that state courts cannot overturn or revise the legislature’s decisions.

Most respondents (70%) have not heard anything or have not heard enough to have an opinion about this case, while 7% favor a ruling that state legislatures have sole authority and 22% oppose holding state courts to be without authority to alter the legislatures’ decisions.

Among those who do have an opinion on this case, 25% favor the independent power of legislatures, while 75% are opposed to this view of legislative authority.

These results are shown in Table 9. This is the first time this question has been asked.

Table 9: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Rule that under the Constitution, the state legislatures have the power to regulate federal elections and are not subject to review by state courts.

(a) Among all respondents

Poll dates	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor	Oppose
11/15-22/22	70	7	22

(b) Among those with an opinion

Poll dates	Favor the possible decision	Oppose the possible decision
11/15-22/22	25	75

The independent state legislature theory is not well known, as the fact of 70% saying they’ve not heard enough to have an opinion attests. Of those with an opinion, Republicans are closely divided, with 55% in favor of and 45% opposed to this view of legislative authority. Among independents with an opinion, 9% favor and 91% oppose ruling for expansive legislative authority, while among Democrats with an opinion 22% favor and 78% oppose such a ruling.

Prior decisions

In the current survey, 33% favor the June decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, overturning the Roe v. Wade abortion rights decision, while 66% oppose that ruling.

Previous Marquette polls have also found a majority opposed to overturning Roe among those who had heard enough to have an opinion. This trend is shown in Table 10. The question wording in the November poll does not invite respondents to say if they haven’t heard enough, while previous polls included that invitation. Among those who had heard enough, the responses were quite similar to the results with the current wording.

 

Table 10: Favor or oppose overturning Roe v. Wade in past surveys. Among those with an opinion.

Poll dates	Heard of and favor the decision	Heard of and oppose the decision
9/7-16/21	28	72
11/1-10/21	30	70
1/10-21/22	28	72
3/14-24/22	32	68
5/9-19/22	31	69
7/5-12/22	36	64
9/7-14/22	33	67

A majority of the public favors the June 2022 ruling in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. Bruen, which established a right to possess a gun outside the home, with 64% in favor of that decision and 35% opposed.

Support for this ruling, among those with an opinion, was consistently high prior to the decision in June, as shown in Table 11. As with the abortion decision above, the question wording in the November poll does not invite respondents to say if they haven’t heard enough, while previous polls included that invitation.

Table 11: Favor or oppose ruling that Second Amendment protects right to possess a gun outside the home. Among those with an opinion.

Poll dates	Heard of and favor the decision	Heard of and oppose the decision
9/7-16/21	63	37
11/1-10/21	65	35
1/10-21/22	67	33
3/14-24/22	63	37
5/9-19/22	66	34
7/5-12/22	56	44
9/7-14/22	57	43

Looking back to earlier decisions, a substantial majority favor the Court’s 2015 ruling establishing a right to same-sex marriage, 72%, while 28% are opposed. This trend is shown in Table 12.

Table 12: In 2015 the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
5/9-19/22	69	31
7/5-12/22	66	34
9/7-14/22	71	29
11/15-22/22	72	28

The public also strongly favors the Court’s 2020 ruling the federal law protects LGBTQ workers from employment discrimination, with 83% in favor of that decision and 17% opposed. The trend on this is shown in Table 13.

Table 13: In 2020 the Supreme Court ruled that a federal civil rights law protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
5/9-19/22	83	16
7/5-12/22	84	16
9/7-14/22	87	12
11/15-22/22	83	17

The public is evenly divided on the Court’s 2019 decision that federal courts have no role in adjudicating challenges to partisan gerrymandering. That ruling is favored by 52% and is opposed by 47%.

Perceptions of the ideology of the Court

The perceived ideology of the Court has moved in the conservative direction since 2019, with 61% in November 2022 saying the Court is very conservative or conservative, compared to 38% in September 2019. The percentage seeing the Court as moderate has decreased from 50% in 2019 to 32% in November 2022. The full trend is shown in Table 14.

Table 14: In general, would you describe each of the following as very conservative, conservative, moderate, liberal or very liberal? The Supreme Court

Poll dates	Very conservative	Somewhat conservative	Moderate	Somewhat liberal	Very liberal
9/3-13/19	5	33	50	9	3
9/8-15/20	5	30	54	9	2
7/16-26/21	13	37	42	6	1
9/7-16/21	16	35	40	7	2
11/1-10/21	15	35	39	8	1
1/10-21/22	17	38	35	8	2
3/14-24/22	15	37	36	10	2
5/9-19/22	23	33	34	8	2
7/5-12/22	34	33	21	7	3
9/7-14/22	29	35	27	5	3
11/15-22/22	25	36	32	6	2

Knowledge of the Court

The public varies widely in awareness of the Court and of its decisions. One measure of this is knowledge of which party’s president appointed the majority of the Court. Table 15 shows how this awareness of the makeup of the Court has varied since 2019. Given the prominence of appointments and debates about the Court, it is notable that only a bit more than a third are certain that the majority of justices were appointed by Republicans. On the other hand, nearly three-quarters think that Republican appointees are probably or definitely the majority. The remaining quarter are incorrect as to the majority.

Table 15: What is your guess as to whether a majority of the current U.S. Supreme Court justices were appointed by Democratic or Republican presidents?

Poll dates	Definitely/Probably Dem majority	Probably Rep majority	Definitely Rep majority
9/3-13/19	27	53	19
9/8-15/20	28	51	21
7/16-26/21	24	45	30
9/7-16/21	25	46	29
11/1-10/21	28	44	28
1/10-21/22	23	44	33
3/14-24/22	28	47	24
5/9-19/22	31	39	31
7/5-12/22	20	40	40
9/7-14/22	22	40	37
11/15-22/22	24	40	35

Partisans differ somewhat in their awareness of the Court’s majority, with Republicans more likely than Democrats or independents to think that Democratic appointees form the majority and less certain that their own party appointed the majority. In contrast, Democrats are the most likely to correctly identify the Court majority as Republican appointees.

Table 16: What is your guess as to whether a majority of the current U.S. Supreme Court justices were appointed by Democratic or Republican presidents? By party identification

(a) In all surveys since 2019

Party ID	Definitely/Probably Dem majority	Probably Rep majority	Definitely Rep majority
Republican	30	47	22
Lean Republican	28	49	23
Independent	34	46	19
Lean Democrat	16	47	36
Democrat	20	40	39

(b) In November 2022 survey only

Party ID	Definitely/Probably Dem majority	Probably Rep majority	Definitely Rep majority
Republican	27	43	30
Lean Republican	26	43	31
Independent	35	43	20
Lean Democrat	18	43	39
Democrat	18	34	48

Knowledge of the party of the presidents appointing a majority is also related to knowledge of and ability to give a favorable or unfavorable rating for each justice. Table 17 shows the relationship.

Table 17: Number of justices known well enough for respondent to give favorability rating, by knowledge of the Court majority (pooling 2019-2022 surveys)

Know party of the presidents appointing a majority	Median	Mean	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Definitely/Probably Dem majority	1	2.4	42	15	10	7	6	6	4	4	2	5
Probably Rep majority	3	3.7	22	11	11	11	9	8	8	6	5	8
Definitely Rep majority	7	5.9	10	5	6	6	7	10	9	11	11	24

While there are partisan differences in knowledge of the Court majority (i.e., of the party of the presidents who appointed a majority), there are only small differences in knowledge of the justices, with the exception of independents who do not lean (to either party), a group that is also less involved in politics generally.

Table 18: Number of justices known well enough for respondent to give favorability rating, by party identification (pooling 2019-2022 surveys)

Party ID	Median	Mean	0	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9
Republican	4	4.0	23	11	9	8	8	10	7	7	6	11
Lean Republican	4	4.1	27	10	10	9	8	8	7	7	5	10
Independent	1	2.8	42	13	7	8	5	5	5	3	4	8
Lean Democrat	4	4.2	23	8	9	10	8	9	9	6	7	11
Democrat	4	4.5	17	11	10	9	9	8	8	9	7	13

Author of Dobbs

Few cases in recent decades have received the attention given to the Dobbs decision. One would not imagine that the general public is often aware of which justice authors individual opinions, but given the prominence of this decision, the question seemed worth asking.

Among all respondents, 25% correctly identified Justice Samuel Alito as the author of the opinion for the Court, with 25% incorrectly saying Justice Clarence Thomas was the author. Thomas wrote a concurring opinion. The full set of responses is shown in Table 19. Respondents were asked to “just give your best guess” if they weren’t sure. Note that if respondents simply guessed randomly, we would expect about 11% to pick each justice. Only Chief Justice John Roberts exceeds this “guessing rate,” and by only a single percentage point. The three dissenting justices are all chosen by 6% or less.

Table 19: Which justice wrote the Supreme Court’s opinion in the Dobbs case, this past June, overturning the 1973 ruling in Roe v. Wade that had made abortion legal in all 50 states?

Response	Percent
Samuel Alito	25
Amy Coney Barrett	9
Stephen Breyer	6
Neil Gorsuch	5
Elena Kagan	2
Brett Kavanaugh	11
John Roberts	12
Sonia Sotomayor	5
Clarence Thomas	25

Here, knowledge of the Court majority appointment clearly plays a role in awareness of the author. Table 20 shows presumed author by this knowledge. Among those who erroneously believe the Court majority were appointed by Democratic presidents, or who think a majority were appointed by Republicans but aren’t sure, more think Thomas was the author than think Alito. But among those who are (correctly) sure there is a Republican-appointed majority, 43% say Alito, and 23% say Thomas. While this is not a majority, there is a clear progression of knowledge of the Dobbs authorship in line with general knowledge of the Court.

Table 20: Which justice wrote the Supreme Court’s opinion in the Dobbs case, this past June, overturning the 1973 ruling in Roe v. Wade that had made abortion legal in all 50 states? By knowledge of which party’s presidents appointed a Court majority

Knowledge of majority	Samuel Alito	Amy Coney Barrett	Stephen Breyer	Neil Gorsuch	Elena Kagan	Brett Kavanaugh	John Roberts	Sonia Sotomayor	Clarence Thomas
Definitely/Probably Dem majority	13	14	8	4	2	12	15	13	19
Probably Rep majority	17	8	7	7	2	14	11	4	31
Definitely Rep majority	43	6	3	3	1	8	11	1	23

A large share of the public says it has “heard a lot” about the Court’s Dobbs decision, and this has remained at high levels since July, as shown in Table 21.

 

Table 21: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? A Supreme Court decision on abortion.

Poll dates	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
7/5-12/22	81	15	3
9/7-14/22	84	13	3
11/15-22/22	76	20	3

In contrast with the abortion ruling, the amount of news that respondents have heard concerning the Second Amendment ruling in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. Bruen has decreased substantially since July, as shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? A Supreme Court decision on the right to possess a gun outside the home.

Poll dates	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
7/5-12/22	47	36	16
9/7-14/22	31	48	21
11/15-22/22	25	47	28

Much of the public says it has heard little or nothing about the pending cases concerning consideration of race in college admissions. Arguments were heard on Oct. 31.

Table 23: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? A Supreme Court case concerning the use of race in college admissions.

Poll dates	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
11/15-22/22	20	45	34

Awareness of issues before the Court, or recently decided cases, thus varies considerably depending on the topic. For further comparison, awareness of the Russian invasion of Ukraine is shown in Table 24 (a), and awareness of the Jan. 6th committee hearings is shown in Table 24 (b).

Table 24: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the hearings of the House Select Committee on January 6th.

(a) Russian invasion of Ukraine

Poll dates	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
11/15-22/22	70	23	7

(b) January 6th committee hearings

Poll dates	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
7/5-12/22	43	38	19
9/7-14/22	52	31	18
11/15-22/22	43	37	19

The public has come to think that the Court should pay more attention to public opinion in reaching its decisions than was the case in September 2020, when 44% said the Court should consider public opinion and 55% said it should not. In the current survey, two years later, 61% say public opinion should be considered and 39% say it should not be considered. The trend is shown in Table 25.

Table 25: Should justices of the Supreme Court consider public opinion about a case when making decisions or should they ignore public opinion?

Poll dates	Should consider public opinion	Should ignore public opinion
9/8-15/20	44	55
9/7-16/21	41	59
7/5-12/22	54	46
9/7-14/22	61	39
11/15-22/22	61	39

Support for increasing the size of the Supreme Court has been narrowly divided for some time. In September, a slight majority favored adding justices, but in November, the slight majority favors keeping the current number of justices.

Table 26: How much do you favor or oppose a proposal to increase the number of justices on the U.S. Supreme Court?

Poll dates	Strongly favor	Somewhat favor	Somewhat oppose	Strongly oppose
9/3-13/19	8	35	39	17
9/8-15/20	10	36	39	14
7/16-26/21	12	36	28	23
9/7-16/21	16	32	20	31
11/1-10/21	15	33	23	29
7/5-12/22	17	32	22	29
9/7-14/22	18	33	20	29
11/15-22/22	13	34	25	28

Confidence in the Court and other institutions

Confidence in the Court has declined since 2019, when 37% had a great deal or quite a lot of confidence. That declined to 30% who have similar confidence in November 2022. Those with very little or no confidence increased from 20% in September 2019 to 33% in November 2022. The full trend is shown in Table 27.

 

Table 27: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? The U.S. Supreme Court.

Poll dates	A great deal	Quite a lot	Some	Very little	None at all
9/3-13/19	8	29	42	16	4
9/8-15/20	12	28	45	13	3
7/5-12/22	9	19	28	28	16
9/7-14/22	10	20	34	26	10
11/15-22/22	8	22	36	23	10

Respondents were also surveyed on confidence in the state supreme court where they live (or the highest court in the state). Results for confidence in their state’s highest court are not much different than for confidence in the U.S. Supreme Court, although more people pick the middle category of “some confidence.” Views of state courts have not changed much since 2019, as shown in Table 28.

Table 28: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? Your state Supreme Court or highest court in your state

Poll dates	A great deal	Quite a lot	Some	Very little	None at all
9/3-13/19	5	27	46	17	5
9/8-15/20	8	27	47	14	4
9/7-14/22	8	27	45	15	6
11/15-22/22	9	27	40	17	7

The most common view of Congress is “some” confidence, at 43%. Few respondents express “a great deal” or “quite a lot” of confidence in Congress, a combined 17%. While this is a long-running finding, there has been a small decline in those with “very little” or no confidence at all, as shown in Table 29.

Table 29: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? Congress

Poll dates	A great deal	Quite a lot	Some	Very little	None at all
9/3-13/19	2	8	39	38	13
9/8-15/20	3	10	42	35	10
7/5-12/22	3	7	35	40	16
9/7-14/22	4	12	37	35	12
11/15-22/22	3	14	43	29	11

Confidence in state legislatures is slightly better than for Congress. Twenty-eight percent say they have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in their legislature, compared to just 17% saying the same of Congress. Thirty percent say they have little or no confidence in their legislatures versus 40% who say the same of Congress. As with Congress, the most common response to legislatures is “some” confidence, at 42%, shown in Table 30.

 

Table 30: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? Your state legislature

Poll dates	A great deal	Quite a lot	Some	Very little	None at all
11/15-22/22	4	24	42	23	7

Confidence in the presidency is shown in Table 31. The percentage with no confidence has declined since 2020, with some increase in the “some confidence” category, and modest fluctuations in the other categories.

Table 31: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? The Presidency

Poll dates	A great deal	Quite a lot	Some	Very little	None at all
9/3-13/19	13	15	25	22	24
9/8-15/20	15	16	23	20	25
7/5-12/22	6	14	31	30	18
9/7-14/22	13	20	29	24	14
11/15-22/22	12	18	33	23	14

Views of two law enforcement institutions, the police and the FBI, are similar, but partisan differences are pronounced. Table 32 shows confidence in the police and Table 33 reflects confidence in the FBI, which is not as high as for the police.

Table 32: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? The police

Poll dates	A great deal	Quite a lot	Some	Very little	None at all
9/8-15/20	20	29	32	12	6
9/7-14/22	21	30	28	14	6
11/15-22/22	18	31	30	15	7

Table 33: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? The FBI

Poll dates	A great deal	Quite a lot	Some	Very little	None at all
9/7-14/22	19	25	30	16	10
11/15-22/22	13	27	34	17	11

Partisan views are distinct concerning the police and the FBI. Republicans are more positive to the police and less so to the FBI, while Democrats are more positive to the FBI and less positive to the police, as shown in Table 34.

Table 34: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? The police, the FBI by party identification

(a) The police, by party identification

Party ID	A great deal	Quite a lot	Some	Very little	None at all
Republican	35	37	20	7	1
Independent	9	28	33	18	11
Democrat	14	28	36	16	6

(b) The FBI, by party identification

Party ID	A great deal	Quite a lot	Some	Very little	None at all
Republican	9	19	30	25	16
Independent	9	23	37	18	12
Democrat	21	37	32	7	3

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted Nov. 15-22, 2022, interviewing 1,004 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law School Poll website. Some items from this survey (more generally about political topics) are held for a separate release tomorrow (Thursday, Dec. 1, 2022).

Wording of questions about future and past Supreme Court decisions: These items do not attempt to exactly frame the particular issues in specific cases but rather address the topic in more general terms.

The wording of questions about cases before the Court in the October 2022 Term include:

Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion?

The wording of questions about previous decisions include:

Opinion of Dobbs decisions, striking down Roe v. Wade

Opinion of ruling that the Second Amendment protects the right to possess a gun outside the home

Opinion on ruling the federal courts have no role in adjudicating challenges to gerrymandering

Opinion of same-sex marriage decision:

Opinion of decision that anti-discrimination laws protect LGBTQ people:

In 2020 the Supreme Court ruled that a federal civil rights law protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?