New Marquette Law School national survey finds Biden trailing three GOP opponents, Trump dominating GOP primary

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey of registered voters finds President Joe Biden trailing against each of the top three potential Republican candidates, with former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley leading Biden 55% to 45% among registered voters. Former President Trump leads Biden 52% to 48% in the same category, while Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis holds a 51% to 49% advantage.

Among likely voters, Haley sees her advantage rise to 12 percentage points at 56-44. The Biden-DeSantis hypothetical does not change with likely voters, while Trump’s support decreases to 51% against Biden’s 49%.

These results include initially undecided voters who were then asked to choose one of the candidates.

Among registered Republican voters, Trump maintains a substantial lead over all others in the primary field for the GOP nomination, with 54% of the total. DeSantis and Haley are tied at 12%. That represents a rise for Haley and a decline for DeSantis since March. No other candidate has more than 4% support in the current poll.

The survey was conducted Nov. 2-7, 2023, interviewing 856 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 668, with a margin of error of +/-5 percentage points.

The Marquette Law School Poll has seen a close race between Trump and Biden among registered voters since May, with the trend shown in Table 1. Among likely voters in September, Biden received 51% to Trump’s 49%. Likely voters results are not available for earlier polls. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: Presidential vote choice, Biden vs. Trump, May-November

Among registered voters

Poll datesVote
Donald TrumpJoe Biden
11/2-7/235248
9/18-25/235148
7/7-12/235050
5/8-18/235247
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden?
Question for those initially answering “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Trump or for Biden?

The trend among registered voters for the DeSantis-Biden choice is shown in Table 2. Among likely voters in September, Biden received 51% to DeSantis’s 48%. Likely voters results are not available for earlier polls.

Table 2: Presidential vote choice, Biden vs. DeSantis, May-September

Among registered voters

Poll datesVote
Ron DeSantisJoe Biden
11/2-7/235149
9/18-25/235148
7/7-12/235148
5/8-18/235248
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Ron DeSantis or for Joe Biden?
Question for those initially answering “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for DeSantis?

The Haley-Biden vote was first measured in the current poll, so no trend is available.

Table 3 shows the Biden versus Trump results by party identification. Trump receives a higher share of Republican votes than does Biden among Democrats, while independents favor Trump. (Throughout this report, party identification includes independents who say they are closer to a party while “independents” separately listed here are those who say they are not closer to either party.)

Table 3: Vote for Biden or Trump, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDVote choice
Donald TrumpJoe Biden
Total5248
Republican928
Independent5446
Democrat1189
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden?
Question for those initially answering “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question for those initially answering “Independent”: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party or neither?

In the Biden-DeSantis pairing, Republican support for DeSantis is a little higher than in Trump’s case, and Biden’s support among Democrats is also slightly higher than against Trump. Biden has a small lead among independents in this matchup, as shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Vote for Biden or DeSantis, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDVote choice
Ron DeSantisJoe Biden
Total5149
Republican964
Independent4753
Democrat892
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Ron DeSantis or for Joe Biden?
Question for those initially answering “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for DeSantis?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question for those initially answering “Independent”: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party or neither?

Haley holds Republican support as well as DeSantis does, while attracting a substantial crossover vote from Democrats. Independents are about evenly divided, as shown in Table 5. Haley’s strength with Republicans combined with an ability to attract more Democratic voters than Trump or DeSantis accounts for her stronger overall support against Biden.

Table 5: Vote for Biden or Haley, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDVote choice
Nikki HaleyJoe Biden
Total5545
Republican964
Independent4951
Democrat1585
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Nikki Haley or for Joe Biden?
Question for those initially answering “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Haley?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question for those initially answering “Independent”: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party or neither?

Reluctant voters

A significant share of voters are initially reluctant to choose between Biden or Trump, saying they would vote for “someone else” or wouldn’t vote. The share of these reluctant voters had remained around 20-25% since the question was first posed in November 2021. In September and November, the share of reluctant voters has dipped below 20%. It was 18% in November. The full trend is shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Reluctant to choose Biden or Trump, Nov. 2021-Nov. 2023

Among registered voters

Poll datesReluctant or not
ReluctantNot reluctant
11/2-7/231882
9/18-25/231684
7/7-12/232476
5/8-18/232575
3/13-22/232476
1/9-20/232080
11/15-22/222377
9/7-14/222278
3/14-24/221981
1/10-21/222278
11/1-10/212278
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden, someone else or wouldn’t you vote?

When asked to choose, almost all respondents will make a choice of Biden or Trump. In November, among initially reluctant registered voters, 53% said they would pick Trump and 47% would definitely vote for Biden.

The trend in choices among initially reluctant voters since May is shown in Table 7. Biden has had an edge with these reluctant voters in each poll prior to the current one.

Table 7: Choice among initially reluctant voters, May-Nov. 2023

Among registered voters who initially don’t pick Biden or Trump

Poll datesVote when asked to choose
Donald TrumpJoe Biden
11/2-7/235347
9/18-25/234255
7/7-12/234851
5/8-18/234751
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?

Favorability

Haley is the only one of the four leading candidates viewed more favorably than unfavorably, with a net favorability—favorable percentage minus unfavorable percentage—of +7.  Trump is at -15, Biden is at -19, and DeSantis is at -21, as shown in Table 8. However, many more voters say they haven’t heard enough about Haley to have an opinion than say that of the other candidates.

Table 8: Favorability to Biden, Trump, DeSantis, and Haley

Among registered voters

CandidateFavorability
Net favorableFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
Joe Biden-1940591
Donald Trump-1542572
Ron DeSantis-21345511
Nikki Haley7383131
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

For Biden and Trump, 20% are unfavorable to both candidates. The number unfavorable to both has remained near 20% since November 2021. The trend for favorability to both Biden and Trump is shown in Table 9. While more respondents have seen Biden favorably and Trump unfavorably in 10 of the last 13 polls, slightly more have seen Trump favorably and Biden unfavorably in the last two polls, in September and November.

Table 9: Favorability to Biden and Trump, Nov. 2021-Nov. 2023

Among registered voters

Poll datesFavorability to both
Biden fav, Trump favBiden fav, Trump unfavBiden unfav, Trump favBiden unfav, Trump unfavDK/NA either
11/2-7/2333638202
9/18-25/2333639202
7/7-12/2313933233
5/8-18/2323536235
3/13-22/2323932235
1/9-20/2314234194
11/15-22/2214430214
9/7-14/2214332213
7/5-12/2203534265
5/9-19/2213936204
3/14-24/2224135183
1/10-21/2224429224
11/1-10/2114330206
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Vote by Biden approval

Biden’s job approval in November was 40%, with 60% disapproving, a change of a single point in each total from September’s 39% approval and 61% disapproval.

A strength of Biden, despite his high disapproval, has been his ability to win “votes” from those who “somewhat disapprove” of how he has handled his job as president, typically splitting or winning a small majority of this group of voters. Table 10 shows how voters choose to vote for Biden or Trump by strength of approval or disapproval of Biden’s job performance. Biden wins large percentages of both categories of approval (“strongly” and “somewhat”), while Trump dominates the strongly disapproving voters, with a Biden advantage among those somewhat disapproving of his job performance.

Table 10: Biden vs. Trump vote, by Biden job approval

Among registered voters

Biden job approvalVote
Donald TrumpJoe Biden
Total5248
Strongly approve397
Somewhat approve991
Somewhat disapprove4555
Strongly disapprove946
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden?
Question for those initially answering “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

When paired against DeSantis, Biden does a bit better with the “somewhat disapprove” group, while the other groups remain unchanged.

Table 11: Biden vs. DeSantis vote, by Biden job approval

Among registered voters

Biden job approvalVote
Ron DeSantisJoe Biden
Total5149
Strongly approve397
Somewhat approve991
Somewhat disapprove4060
Strongly disapprove946
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Ron DeSantis or for Joe Biden?
Question for those initially answering “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose would you vote for Biden or for DeSantis?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

In another example of why Haley does better against Biden than does Trump or DeSantis, she draws more votes from the two categories of approval and slightly leads among the “somewhat disapprove” group, while winning the vast majority of those who strongly disapprove of Biden, as shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Biden vs. Haley vote, by Biden job approval

Among registered voters

Biden job approvalVote
Nikki HaleyJoe Biden
Total5545
Strongly approve793
Somewhat approve1585
Somewhat disapprove5248
Strongly disapprove937
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Nikki Haley or for Joe Biden?
Question for those initially answering “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose would you vote for Biden or for Haley?
Question: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Third-party candidates

The ability of potential third-party candidates to influence the election is a growing concern for both major parties. In the new Marquette Law School Poll, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is seen favorably by 38% and unfavorably by 38%, with 24% saying they haven’t heard enough to have an opinion. As shown in Table 13, Kennedy is viewed more favorably by Republicans and independents than by Democrats.

Table 13: Kennedy favorability, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDFavorability
FavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
Total383824
Republican462727
Independent423226
Democrat295120
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question for those initially answering “Independent”: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party or neither?

When asked how likely they would be to vote for Kennedy rather than the Democratic or Republican nominees, if Kennedy were on the ballot, 9% say they would definitely vote for Kennedy, and 28% would probably do so, while 29% would probably not vote for him and 34% would definitely not.

Table 14 shows likelihood of voting for Kennedy by party identification, showing Republicans slightly more likely to say they definitely or probably would vote for Kennedy. More Democrats than Republicans say they would definitely not support Kennedy. Independents are substantially more likely to vote for Kennedy, either “definitely” or “probably,” than are members of either partisan group.

Table 14: Consider voting for Kennedy, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDVote for Kennedy
Definitely vote for KennedyProbably vote for KennedyProbably not vote for KennedyDefinitely not vote for Kennedy
Total9282934
Republican9293428
Independent23422412
Democrat7242445
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the presidential ballot as an independent candidate, how likely would you be to vote for him instead of the Democratic or Republican candidates?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question for those initially answering “Independent”: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party or neither?

Kennedy’s potential to draw votes from those who say they would vote for Biden or Trump without Kennedy on the ballot is shown in Table 15. Slightly more Trump voters say they would definitely or probably vote for Kennedy than do Biden voters, while Biden voters are considerably more likely to say they would “definitely not” vote for Kennedy.

Table 15: Consider voting for Kennedy, by Biden-Trump choice

Among registered voters

Biden-Trump voteVote for Kennedy
Definitely vote for KennedyProbably vote for KennedyProbably not vote for KennedyDefinitely not vote for Kennedy
Total9282934
Donald Trump11313325
Joe Biden8252443
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: If Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is on the presidential ballot as an independent candidate, how likely would you be to vote for him instead of the Democratic or Republican candidates?
Question: If the 2024 election for president were held today between former President Donald Trump, the Republican, and President Joe Biden, the Democrat, would you vote for Donald Trump or for Joe Biden?
Question for those initially answering “Someone else” or “Wouldn’t vote”: If you had to choose, would you vote for Biden or for Trump?

Cornel West

Another potential independent candidate is Cornel West. He is much less well known than Kennedy, with 67% saying they haven’t heard enough to have an opinion, 10% having a favorable opinion, and 22% having an unfavorable view. Table 16 shows favorability to West by party identification. Democrats are more likely to have an opinion, and a more favorable opinion, than are Republicans, though both are more unfavorable than favorable.

Table 16: West favorability, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDFavorability
FavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
Total102267
Republican62271
Independent122068
Democrat142264
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Cornel West or haven’t you heard enough about him yet?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question for those initially answering “Independent”: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party or neither?

West, who is Black, is considerably better known among Black voters than among other racial or ethnic groups. Black voters are the only group with more than half saying they are familiar enough to have an opinion of West, and he is seen more favorably than unfavorably among Black respondents, as shown in Table 17.

Table 17: West favorability, by race and ethnicity

Among registered voters

Party IDFavorability
FavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enough
Total102267
White72370
Black352343
Hispanic102169
Other/Multiple81577
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

GOP Primary

As previously mentioned, Trump maintains a substantial lead over all others in the primary field for the GOP nomination, with 54% of registered Republican voters, as shown in Table 18. DeSantis and Haley are tied at 12%, which represents a rise for Haley and a decline for DeSantis since March. No other candidate has more than 4% support in the current poll. Sen. Tim Scott suspended his campaign after this poll was conducted.

Table 18: Support for Republican 2024 presidential nomination

Among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

CandidatePoll dates
11/2-7/239/18-25/237/7-12/235/8-18/233/13-22/23
Donald Trump5456464640
Nikki Haley126645
Ron DeSantis1212222535
Vivek Ramaswamy4413
Tim Scott22410
Chris Christie11110
Doug Burgum001
Asa Hutchinson00100
Mike Pence4725
Larry Elder001
Will Hurd00
Undecided/Other1615121612
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Here are some candidates for the Republican presidential nomination. If the primary were today, whom would you vote for?
Note: Tim Scott suspended his campaign after this survey was completed Note: – indicates candidate not included in the particular poll

Republican primary preferences differ sharply depending on the voters’ view of Trump. Unsurprisingly, Trump wins a large majority of voters who have a favorable view of him. Among those unfavorable to Trump, Haley is now the substantial leader with 37% support to DeSantis’ 10%, while 34% of these Republicans unfavorable to Trump remain undecided. Table 19 shows the full results.

Table 19: GOP primary preference, by Trump favorability

Among Republican registered voters

Trump favorabilityPrimary preference
Doug BurgumChris ChristieRon DeSantisNikki HaleyVivek RamaswamyTim ScottDonald TrumpUndecided
Total011212425416
Favorable00125316910
Unfavorable23103765434
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Here are some candidates for the Republican presidential nomination. If the primary were today, whom would you vote for?

Perceptions of Biden and Trump

Table 20 shows which candidate is thought to do a better job on seven issues. Trump is seen as better on immigration and border security, the economy, the Israel-Hamas war, and, to a smaller degree, foreign relations. Biden is seen better on abortion policy and especially on climate change. The two are seen as about equal on handling Medicare and Social Security.

A substantial percentage say both candidates would be about the same on an issue or that neither would be good on the issue. These voters could change their minds over the course of the campaign, providing candidates opportunities to gain support.

Table 20: Who would handle issues better

Among registered voters

IssueWho better on issue
BidenTrumpBoth about the sameNeither good
Immigration and border security2750716
The economy3051711
Handling the war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza31421116
Foreign relations3844711
Medicare & Social Security38391112
Abortion policy41341014
Climate change42311116
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Do you think Joe Biden or Donald Trump would do a better job handling each of the following issues?

Table 21 shows how well various phrases describe Biden and Trump. Biden particularly is seen as “too old” to be president compared to those who see Trump as too old, with 57% saying this describes Biden very well and 23% saying the same of Trump.

On “shares your values,” slightly more say this describes Trump very well than say it of Biden, but many more are emphatic that this does not describe either Trump or Biden at all.

Corruption assertions have been leveled against both candidates. In this poll, 30% say “has behaved corruptly” describes Biden very well and 45% say the same for Trump.

On having a strong record of accomplishment as president, 18% say this describes Biden very well, while 31% say this describes Trump very well.

Table 21: How well does this phrase describe Biden or Trump

Among registered voters

IssueHow well phrase describes
Very wellSomewhat wellNot too wellNot at all well
Is too old to be president
Biden5723812
Trump23282722
Shares your values
Biden15281840
Trump19261342
Has behaved corruptly
Biden30192030
Trump45172018
Strong record of accomplishments as president
Biden18222138
Trump31211532
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: How well does each of the following phrases describe (Joe Biden)(Donald Trump)?

Approval of Congress

Approval of Congress has declined slightly following the ouster of Rep. Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House on Oct. 3 and the subsequent election of Rep. Mike Johnson as Speaker on Oct. 25. In the November poll, 27% approved of how Congress is handling its job, and 73% disapproved. In September, 30% approved and 70% disapproved of how Congress was handling its job.

More than half of registered voters, 59%, have heard or read a lot about the election of a new Speaker, 26% heard a little, and 15% heard nothing at all about this.

Approval of Congress in November is lower among those who heard or read a lot about the election of a new Speaker than among those who did not follow the news about the Speaker, as shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Approval of Congress, by amount heard about election of new Speaker

Among registered voters

Heard about Speaker electionCongressional approval
ApproveDisapprove
Total2773
A lot2080
A little3763
Nothing at all3367
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Congress is handling its job?
Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? … The election of a new Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives

In January, following McCarthy’s election as speaker after 15 ballots, 42% said they thought the House Republicans could unite to govern effectively, while 58% said they could not. Now, following McCarthy’s ouster and Johnson’s election as speaker, 39% think Republicans can unite and 61% that they cannot.

International issues

Following the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza, 81% say they have read or heard a lot about the conflict, 16% have heard a little, and 3% say they have heard nothing at all.

A majority, 52%, say the U.S. should support Israel, 5% say the U.S. should support Hamas, and 43% say the U.S. should not take a position on the conflict.

Views of whom to support differ by party, with Republicans most supportive of Israel, Democrats evenly divided between supporting Israel and not taking a position, and independents quite strongly in favor of neutrality, as shown in Table 23.

Table 23: Should U.S. support Israel, Hamas, or not take a position, by party identification

Among registered voters

Party IDSupport Israel or Hamas
Support IsraelSupport HamasU.S. should not take a position
Total52543
Republican65134
Independent21475
Democrat47845
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, should the U.S. support Israel, support Hamas or not take a position?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question for those initially answering “Independent”: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party or neither?

There are also sharp ideological differences, shown in Table 24, with conservatives more in favor of supporting Israel, while a majority of the most liberal registered voters say the U.S. should not take a position. Support for Hamas remains below 10% for all ideological groups.

Table 24: Should U.S. support Israel, Hamas, or not take a position, by ideology

Among registered voters

 Support Israel or Hamas
Ideology IDSupport IsraelSupport HamasU.S. should not take a position
Total52543
Very conservative73225
Somewhat conservative66133
Moderate45650
Somewhat liberal44649
Very liberal31960
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, should the U.S. support Israel, support Hamas or not take a position?
Question: Generally speaking, how would you describe your political views?

The youngest age group, those 18-29, are the least supportive of Israel and the only age group where support for Hamas exceeds 10%. Support for Israel increases steadily with age, as shown in Table 25.

Table 25: Should U.S. support Israel, Hamas, or not take a position, by age

Among registered voters

AgeSupport Israel or Hamas
Support IsraelSupport HamasU.S. should not take a position
Total52543
18-29231661
30-4437856
45-5959239
60+69031
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: When it comes to Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, should the U.S. support Israel, support Hamas or not take a position?

Economic perceptions

Registered voters have a negative view of the economy, with 33% rating it poor and 40% saying “not so good,” while 24% say it is good and only 3% say it is excellent. In September, 32% rated it poor and 45% said “not so good,” while 20% said it is good and 3% said the economy is excellent.

Republicans and independents are quite negative in their view of the economy and Democrats somewhat more positive. Table 26 shows opinion of the economy, overall and by party identification.

Table 26: View of the economy, by party identification, September 2023

Among registered voters

Party IDView of the economy
ExcellentGoodNot so goodPoor
Total3244033
Republican093753
Independent1115236
Democrat6424013
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question for those initially answering “Independent”: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party or neither?

Asked about their personal financial situation, in November, 39% say they are living comfortably, 43% are just getting by, and 19% say they are struggling. That is little changed from September, when 37% said they were living comfortably, 45% were just getting by, and 17% said they were struggling.

Partisanship also strongly affects views of the economy, regardless of respondent’s personal financial situation. Table 27 shows views of the economy by family financial situation and by party. Those with a better personal financial situation see the economy as better than those with worse finances, but partisanship is strongly related to view of the economy in each category of personal finances.

Table 27: View of the economy by financial situation and by party identification

Among registered voters

Financial situationView of the ecconomy
ExcellentGoodNot so goodPoor
Living comfortably
Republican1135136
Independent044542
Democrat760276
Just getting by
Republican0103357
Independent296128
Democrat4325113
Struggling
Republican002277
Independent014158
Democrat5125231
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: How would you describe the state of the nation’s economy these days?
Question: Thinking about your family’s financial situation, would you say you are living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question for those initially answering “Independent”: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party or neither?

The survey asks about the latest estimates of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the unemployment rate for the most recent month available at the time of the survey, September in this case. Respondents are more than twice as likely to say they have paid a lot of attention to news about inflation than to news about unemployment. Table 28 shows attention paid to news for inflation and news for unemployment.

Table 28: How much heard about economic news

Registered voters

 How much heard or read
IssueA lotA littleNothing at all
Inflation rate493714
Unemployment rate235225
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? … News reports that consumer prices (inflation) rose by 3.7% over the past 12 months (as of September)
Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? … News reports that the unemployment rate was 3.8% (as of September)

Abortion

Preferences over abortion policy have changed little in polling since May 2022, with 66% saying abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 34% say it should be illegal in all or most cases. Table 29 shows the full trend on these preferences. Preferences did not shift substantially following the U.S. Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade in June 2022.

Table 29: Abortion policy preference trend

Among registered voters

Poll datesPolicy preference
Legal in all casesLegal in most casesIllegal in most casesIllegal in all cases
11/2-7/232838259
9/18-25/233336256
7/7-12/232936296
5/8-18/233236266
3/13-22/232836296
1/9-20/232638297
11/15-22/223137248
9/7-14/223235276
7/5-12/222935288
5/9-19/222937258
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases?

Among registered voters, 40% say the abortion issue is one of the most important issues to them, 40% say it is somewhat important, 16% say it is not very important, and 4% say it is not important at all.

Those who say abortion should be legal in all circumstances also rate the issue as among the most important, while a majority of those who say abortion should be illegal in all circumstances also rate it most important, but to a lesser degree. Those who say it should be legal in most cases or illegal in most cases rate the importance of the issue substantially lower, as shown in Table 30.

Table 30: Importance of the abortion issue by policy preference

Among registered voters

Abortion policy preferenceImportance of the issue
One of the most important issuesSomewhat importantNot very importantNot important at all
Total4040164
Legal in all cases662671
Legal in most cases2549224
Illegal in most cases2944234
Illegal in all cases5428215
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: How important is the abortion issue to you–would you say it is one of the most important, somewhat important, not very important, or not important at all?
Question: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases?

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted Nov. 2-7, 2023, interviewing 856 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points. For likely voters, the sample size is 668, with a margin of error of +/-5 percentage points. For registered voters who are Republican or independents who lean Republican, the sample size in 398 and the margin of error is +/-6.6 percentage points.

Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. Certain other data from this survey (focusing on those about public views of the Supreme Court) were released yesterday, on Nov. 15. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law School Poll website.

New Marquette Law School national survey finds U.S. Supreme Court job approval by public continues in low 40s

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds that 41% of adults approve of the job the U.S. Supreme Court is doing, while 59% disapprove. In September, 43% approved and 57% disapproved. Approval of the Court has remained below 50% since March 2022, when it stood at 54%. While approval is up from the low point of 38% in July 2022, it has fluctuated in the low 40s percent range since then. The poll was completed before the Court released a Code of Conduct for Justices of the Supreme Court of the United States on November 13, 2023.

The trend in approval since 2020 is shown in Figure 1 and Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

graph showing approval of US Supreme Court over time

Figure 1: Supreme Court job approval

Table 1: Supreme Court job approval

Among adults

Poll datesApproval
ApproveDisapprove
11/2-7/234159
9/18-25/234357
7/7-12/234555
5/8-18/234159
3/13-22/234456
1/9-20/234753
11/15-22/224456
9/7-14/224060
7/5-12/223861
5/9-19/224455
3/14-24/225445
1/10-21/225246
11/1-10/215446
9/7-16/214950
7/16-26/216039
9/8-15/206633
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?

The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s national Supreme Court survey was conducted Nov. 2-7, 2023. The survey interviewed 1,010 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-4.2 percentage points.

Partisan and ideological views of the Court

Approval among Republicans of the Court’s job performance declined to 62% in November, down from 66% in September. Approval among independents also declined, standing at 23% and down from 33%, while among Democrats approval rose to 27% from 24% two months earlier. Approval by party identification of the Court’s job performance is shown in Table 2 for September and November. (Throughout this report, party identification includes independents who say they are closer to a party while “independents” separately listed here are those who say they are not closer to either party.)

Table 2: Approval of the Supreme Court’s job performance, by party identification, September and November 2023

Among adults

Party IDApproval
ApproveDisapprove
Nov. 2023
Total4159
Republican6238
Independent2377
Democrat2773
Sept. 2023
Total4357
Republican6634
Independent3367
Democrat2476
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, Sept. 18-25, 2023 & Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

Political ideology also structures opinion of the Court, at least as strongly as does partisanship. Table 3 shows approval in September and November by ideology.

Table 3: Approval of the Supreme Court’s job performance, by political ideology, September and November 2023

Among adults

IdeologyApproval
ApproveDisapprove
Nov. 2023
Total4159
Conservative6535
Moderate3961
Liberal1387
Sept. 2023
Total4357
Conservative7030
Moderate3763
Liberal1585
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, Sept. 18-25, 2023 & Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?
Question: Generally speaking, how would you describe your political views?

Abortion and gun rights

In June 2022, the Supreme Court issued the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization decision, which overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade ruling that had made abortion legal in all 50 states. The Court also ruled in 2022, in New York State Rifle & Pistol Association Inc. v. Bruen, that the Second Amendment protects an individual’s right to carry a handgun for self-defense outside the home. A substantial majority, 65%, say they oppose the Dobbs decision striking down Roe, with 35% favoring the decision. On the Bruen case, 67% favor the decision, while 33% are opposed to the ruling.

Table 4 shows the trend in opinion about the Dobbs decision. There has been very little change over the past year, with close to two-thirds opposed to the decision and about one-third in favor.

Table 4: Favor or oppose Dobbs decision striking down Roe v. Wade

Among adults

Poll datesFavor or oppose Dobbs
FavorOppose
11/2-7/233565
9/18-25/233664
7/7-12/233862
5/8-18/233565
3/13-22/233367
1/9-20/233564
11/15-22/223366
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Those who agree with the Court’s rulings are more approving of the Court’s job performance than those who oppose the Court’s decisions. Table 5 shows how agreement or disagreement with Dobbs is related to approval within each partisan category, which makes an impact on approval of the Court apart from the role of partisanship alone. Republicans who oppose the Dobbs decision are considerably less approving of the Court than are their fellow partisans who favor the Dobbs decision. Similarly, independents who agree with the Court’s decision are more approving of the Court than those who oppose the decision, though both of these groups strongly disapprove of the Court’s job performance. Among Democrats, the small minority who favor the Dobbs decision are far more likely to approve of the Court than are Democrats opposed to the decision.

Table 5: Court approval by opinion of Dobbs, by party identification

Among adults

Opinion of DobbsCourt approval
ApproveDisapprove
Republican
Favor7327
Oppose4753
Independent
Favor3367
Oppose1981
Democrat
Favor6040
Oppose2179
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?
Question: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

Support for the ruling in Bruen has been similarly stable when asked in September and November, with just under two-thirds in favor of the ruling and one-third opposed, as shown in Table 6. (A differently worded question asked in 2022 found similar support for the decision among those who had heard of the ruling.)

Table 6: Favor or oppose Bruen decision on right to bear a gun outside the home

Among adults

Poll datesFavor or oppose Bruen
FavorOppose
11/2-7/236733
9/18-25/236436
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: In 2022, the Supreme Court ruled that, subject to some restrictions, the Second Amendment protects an individual’s right to carry a handgun for self-defense outside the home. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

As with Dobbs, those who agree with the decision in Bruen are more likely to approve of the Court’s job performance than are those who are opposed to the decision. This holds within each party as shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Court job performance approval by opinion of Bruen, by party identification

Among adults

Opinion of BruenCourt approval
ApproveDisapprove
Republican
Favor6634
Oppose3268
Independent
Favor2971
Oppose1189
Democrat
Favor3565
Oppose1981
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?
Question: In 2022, the Supreme Court ruled that, subject to some restrictions, the Second Amendment protects an individual’s right to carry a handgun for self-defense outside the home. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

Attention to news about the Court

As the Court began its annual term only last month, public attention to news about the Court is rather limited, as shown in Table 8. Only 15% say they have heard a lot about the Court in the last month, while 60% have heard a little and 25% have heard nothing at all. Those levels of attention are little changed since September.

Table 8: How much heard or read about U.S. Supreme Court in last month

Among adults

Poll datesAmout heard or read
A lotA littleNothing at all
11/2-7/23156025
9/18-25/23176122
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: Thinking about the last month only, how much have you heard or read about the U.S. Supreme Court?

Table 9 shows that Democrats are almost twice as likely as Republicans to say they’ve heard or read a lot about the Court in the past month. Independents pay an even lower amount of attention than Republicans, with almost half saying they’ve heard nothing at all about the Court in the past month.

Table 9: Amount heard about Supreme Court by party identification, Nov. 2023

Among adults

Party IDAmount heard or read
A lotA littleNothing at all
Total156025
Republican126622
Independent45046
Democrat215820
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Thinking about the last month only, how much have you heard or read about the U.S. Supreme Court?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

Recent news concerning the justices’ financial disclosures and related matters have raised attention to the ethical standards of the Court. Table 10 shows the trend since May in perception of the justices’ ethical standards.

Table 10: Honesty and ethical standards of U.S. Supreme Court justices

Among adults

Poll datesPerceived honesty and ethical standards
Very high/highAverageLow/Very low
11/2-7/23283934
9/18-25/23304129
7/7-12/23323335
5/8-18/23263935
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: U.S. Supreme Court justices: Please tell me how you would rate the honesty and ethical standards of people in these different fields?

There are sharp partisan differences in perceptions of the Court’s ethical standards, as shown in Table 11. Republicans are nearly twice as likely as Democrats to say that the Court has high or very high ethical standards. Notably it is independents who are most likely to say the Court has low or very low standards.

Table 11: Honesty and ethical standards of U.S. Supreme Court justices, by party identification

Among adults

Party IDEthical standards
Very high/highAverageLow/Very low
Total283934
Republican394021
Independent173846
Democrat203842
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: How would you rate the honesty and ethical standards of U.S. Supreme Court justices?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

While Democrats pay more attention to the Court than do Republicans or independents, those Republicans and independents who pay more attention rate the Court’s ethical standards higher than do their co-partisans who pay less attention. In contrast, Democrats who are most attentive are more likely to rate the Court’s ethical standards low or very low compared to those who pay less attention. Table 12 shows how views of ethical standards vary with attention to the Court by party.

Table 12: Court ethics by attention to Court news and by party identification

Among adults

Court attentionEthical standards
Very high/highAverageLow/Very low
Republican
A lot443818
A little404118
Nothing at all323632
Independent
A lot272548
A little214732
Nothing at all122860
Democrat
A lot243046
A little194042
Nothing at all224038
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: How would you rate the honesty and ethical standards of U.S. Supreme Court justices?
Question: Thinking about the last month only, how much have you heard or read about the U.S. Supreme Court?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

Awareness of the makeup of the Court, in terms of which party’s presidents have appointed a majority of justices, is little changed since September, with 30% saying Republican presidents definitely had appointed a majority of justices, 43% saying Republican presidents had probably done so, and 26% believing a majority had definitely or probably been appointed by Democrats. The full trend is shown in Table 13. The percentage correctly saying Republican presidents definitely appointed a majority has fluctuated modestly after a small rise following the appointment of Justice Amy Coney Barrett in the fall of 2020, which created a 6-3 majority of justices appointed by Republican presidents.

Table 13: Majority of Court appointed by which party’s presidents

Among adults

Poll datesMajority appointed by
Definitely/Probably Dem majorityProbably Rep majorityDefinitely Rep majority
11/2-7/23264330
9/18-25/23264232
7/7-12/23224236
5/8-18/23294130
3/13-22/23274131
1/9-20/23234136
11/15-22/22244035
9/7-14/22224037
7/5-12/22204040
5/9-19/22313931
3/14-24/22284724
1/10-21/22234433
11/1-10/21284428
9/7-16/21254629
7/16-26/21244530
9/8-15/20285121
9/3-13/19275319
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: What is your guess as to whether a majority of the current U.S. Supreme Court justices were appointed by Democratic or Republican presidents?

Republicans and independents are more likely to say that Democrats have appointed a majority on the Court, while Democrats are the most likely to say there is definitely a Republican-appointed majority on the Court, as shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Majority of U.S. Supreme Court justices appointed by which party, by party identification

Among adults

Party IDMajority appointed by which party
Definitely/Probably Dem majorityProbably Rep majorityDefinitely Rep majority
Total264330
Republican323929
Independent374518
Democrat174735
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: What is your guess as to whether a majority of the current U.S. Supreme Court justices were appointed by Democratic or Republican presidents?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

Confidence in institutions

Confidence in several institutions is summarized in Table 15. Juries in criminal cases draw the highest public confidence of the six institutions surveyed and the lowest percentage of respondents saying they have little or no confidence. “Your state Supreme court” has the next highest confidence ratings. The U.S. Supreme Court and U.S. Department of Justice have very similar ratings, followed by the presidency and Congress.

Table 15: Confidence in institutions

Among adults

InstitutionConfidence
Great deal/a lotSomeLittle/None
Juries that decide criminal cases364222
Your state Supreme court304030
U.S. Supreme Court283636
The U.S. Department of Justice273835
The presidency263242
Congress103753
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one?

Confidence in the Court as an institution remained stable from September to November, with 28% expressing a great deal or a lot of confidence, 36% some confidence, and 36% saying they have little or no confidence in the Court. The full trend is shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Confidence in the U.S. Supreme Court

Among adults

Poll datesConfidence
Great deal/a lotSomeLittle/None
11/2-7/23283636
9/18-25/23283735
7/7-12/23313237
5/8-18/23253639
3/13-22/23284032
1/9-20/23313831
11/15-22/22303634
9/7-14/22303436
7/5-12/22282844
9/8-15/20394516
9/3-13/19374220
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? … The U.S. Supreme Court

As with approval of job performance, Republicans have more confidence in the Supreme Court than do Democrats, while independents are especially low in confidence, as shown in Table 17.

Table 17: Confidence in the U.S. Supreme Court, by party identification

Among adults

Party IDConfidence
Great deal/a lotSomeLittle/None
Total283636
Republican373825
Independent173549
Democrat233444
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? … The U.S. Supreme Court
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

A general lack of trust in the federal government contributes to low confidence in the Court specifically. Table 18 shows how confidence in the Court declines as trust declines.

Table 18: Confidence in the U.S. Supreme Court by general trust in federal government

Among adults

Trust in governmentConfidence
Great deal/a lotSomeLittle/None
Total283636
Always/Most of the time473420
Only some of the time264134
Never172163
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? … The U.S. Supreme Court
Question: How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

Trust in government has strong effects within each party, as shown in Table 19. Confidence in the court declines as trust declines among Republicans, independents, and Democrats alike. Republicans have more confidence in the Court than do Democrats with the same levels of trust in government, with independents falling in between the partisans at each level of trust. This table combines the Marquette Law School Poll’s national surveys from July, September, and November in order to provide enough cases in each of the subgroups for analysis.

Table 19: Confidence in the U.S. Supreme Court by trust in government and by party identification

Among adults, combined July, September, and November Marquette national polls

Trust in governmentConfidence
Great deal/a lotSomeLittle/None
Republican
Always/Most of the time573212
Only some of the time463915
Never293337
Independent
Always/Most of the time474112
Only some of the time154738
Never81479
Democrat
Always/Most of the time363134
Only some of the time143551
Never51580
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, July, September and November 20233
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? … The U.S. Supreme Court
Question: How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right?
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

While confidence in juries that decide criminal cases has the highest level of the six institutions rated in this survey, the levels of confidence decreased slightly from September when 40% had a great deal or a lot of confidence, 41% some confidence, and 19% had little or no confidence.

Confidence in juries declined among Republicans and independents from September to November, while it held steady among Democrats, as shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Confidence in juries in criminal cases, by party identification

Among adults

Party IDConfidence
Great deal/a lotSomeLittle/None
Republican
11/2-7/23284626
9/18-25/23374419
Independent
11/2-7/23273934
9/18-25/23304723
Democrat
11/2-7/23463915
9/18-25/23463618
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, Sept. 18-25, 2023 & Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? … Juries that decide guilt or innocence in criminal cases
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

The Department of Justice (DOJ) has become the subject of partisan debate over its handling of a number of prosecutions and investigations in recent years. Overall, 27% say they have a great deal or a lot of confidence in the DOJ, while 38% say they have some confidence and a substantial 35% say they have little or no confidence. In September, 30% had a great deal or a lot of confidence in the DOJ, 35% had some, and 35% had little or no confidence.

Partisan differences and the trends since July are shown in Table 21. Republicans and independents have substantially less confidence in the DOJ than do Democrats.

Table 21: Confidence in U.S. Department of Justice, by party identification

Among adults

Party IDConfidence
Great deal/a lotSomeLittle/None
Republican
11/2-7/23143847
9/18-25/23173351
7/7-12/23132858
Independent
11/2-7/23143750
9/18-25/23195229
7/7-12/23183349
Democrat
11/2-7/23433819
9/18-25/23453223
7/7-12/23404120
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, July, September, November 2023
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? … The U.S. Department of Justice
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

In November, 30% said they had a great deal or a lot of confidence in their state Supreme Court, 40% had some confidence, and 30% had little or no confidence. State courts draw modestly greater confidence from the survey respondents than does the U.S. Supreme Court.

Unlike the U.S. Supreme Court, there is little partisan divide in confidence in state Supreme Courts in the aggregate. Republicans and Democrats have very similar levels of confidence in their state Supreme Courts, though independents are much less confident than either partisan group, as shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Confidence in state Supreme Court, by party identification

Among adults

Party IDConfidence
Great deal/a lotSomeLittle/None
Total304030
Republican314127
Independent123850
Democrat344026
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? … Your state Supreme Court or highest court in your state
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

Perceived ideology of the U.S. Supreme Court

Public perception of the ideology of the U.S. Supreme Court has shifted in a conservative direction since 2019, as shown in Table 23. In September 2019, 38% of the public saw the Court as very or somewhat conservative. In the current poll, 56% see the Court that way. Over this same period, the percent saying the Court is moderate has declined from 50% to 32%. Few people—12%—see the Court as liberal or very liberal.

Table 23: Perceived ideology of the U.S. Supreme Court

Among adults

Poll datesPerceived ideology
Very conservativeSomewhat conservativeModerateSomewhat liberalVery liberal
11/2-7/2321353275
9/18-25/2320373273
7/7-12/2327352873
5/8-18/23243330103
3/13-22/2323353462
1/9-20/2322373182
11/15-22/2225363262
9/7-14/2229352753
7/5-12/2234332173
5/9-19/2223333482
3/14-24/22153736102
1/10-21/2217383582
11/1-10/2115353981
9/7-16/2116354072
7/16-26/2113374261
9/8-15/205305492
9/3-13/195335093
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: In general, would you describe each of the following as…?… The U.S. Supreme Court.

Since 2019, there has been an increase in the percentage of the public who think the justices’ decisions are motivated by politics, rising from 35% in 2019 to 55% in the current poll. There has been a sharp increase beginning in January 2022 when there was a 17-percentage-point jump from the survey prior. The full trend is shown in Table 24.

Table 24: Are justices’ decisions motivated mainly by the law or mainly by politics

Among adults

Poll datesPerceived motivation
Mainly politicsMainly the law
11/2-7/235545
9/18-25/235248
7/7-12/235842
1/9-20/234951
7/5-12/225248
1/10-21/224753
11/1-10/213070
9/7-16/213961
7/16-26/212971
9/8-15/203762
9/3-13/193564
Marquette Law School Poll, national surveys
Question: In general, what most often motivates Supreme Court justices’ decisions?

Ideological views also structure reaction to individual decisions of the Court. Some decisions are more popular with all respondents, and some less popular, but reaction follows ideological lines for each of five major decisions of recent years.

Table 25 shows overall reaction to each decision. Four of the five decisions have a majority in favor while the decision overturning Roe v. Wade has a majority opposed.

Table 25: Favor or oppose recent major Court decisions

Among adults

DecisionFavor or oppose
FavorOppose
Same-sex marriage6535
LGBT anti-discrimination protection8218
Overturn Roe v. Wade3565
Guns outside home6733
Ban use of race in college admissions7921
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: In 2015, the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
Question: In 2020, the Supreme Court ruled that a federal civil rights law protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
Question: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
Question: In 2022, the Supreme Court ruled that, subject to some restrictions, the Second Amendment protects an individual’s right to carry a handgun for self-defense outside the home. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?
Question: In 2023, the Supreme Court ruled that colleges cannot use race as a factor in deciding which applicants to admit. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Table 26 shows the percentage favoring each of those decisions by respondent ideology. Liberals are more in favor of two conventionally liberal decisions, on same-sex marriage and anti-discrimination protection for LGBT workers, while conservatives are less so. Conservatives are more in favor for conventionally conservative decisions on abortion, guns outside the home, and banning the use of race in college admissions, while liberals are less so.

Table 26: Favor recent Court decisions, by ideology

Adults

IdeologyPercentage favoring decision
Same-sex marriageLGBT anti-discrimination protectionOverturn Roe v. WadeGuns outside homeBan use of race in admissions
Conservative4372648793
Moderate6885246782
Liberal8990104258
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Generally speaking, how would you describe your political views?

Like ideology, partisanship structures reaction to decisions, as shown in Table 27.

Table 27: Favor recent Court decisions, by party identification

Adults

Party IDPercentage favoring decision
Same-sex marriageLGBT anti-discrimination protectionOverturn Roe v. WadeGuns outside homeBan use of race in admissions
Republican4972578892
Independent6475256579
Democrat8294154867
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, Nov. 2-7, 2023
Question: Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?
Question: If independent: Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican Party or to the Democratic Party?

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted Nov. 2-7, 2023, interviewing 1,010 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4.2 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available at the Marquette Law School Poll website. Some items from this survey are held for later release.

The wording of questions about previous decisions include:

Opinion of same-sex marriage decision:

  • In 2015, the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Opinion of decision on anti-discrimination law protecting gay and transgender employees

  • In 2020, the Supreme Court ruled that a federal civil rights law protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Opinion of Dobbs decision, striking down Roe v. Wade

  • In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Opinion of decision concerning possession of guns outside the home

  • In 2022, the Supreme Court ruled that, subject to some restrictions, the Second Amendment protects an individual’s right to carry a handgun for self-defense outside the home. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Opinion of decision banning use of race in college admissions

In 2023, the Supreme Court ruled that colleges cannot use race as a factor in deciding which applicants to admit. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?