MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds 53% of those polled say they heard or read a lot about the election of a new Speaker of the House of Representatives, while 29% say they heard a little and 18% heard nothing at all.

Republicans and Democrats were about equally likely to say they had heard a lot about the election of the new speaker, Rep. Kevin McCarthy, while independents were about half as likely to have heard a lot, as shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: The election of a new Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives (Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these?)

Party ID	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
Total	53	29	18
Republican	56	29	15
Independent	28	35	37
Democrat	60	26	14

This Marquette Law School Poll was conducted Jan. 9-20, 2023. The survey interviewed 1,000 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-3.8 percentage points.

Among all respondents, 41% say they think the Republicans in the House can unite to govern effectively after the prolonged voting for speaker, while 58% believe Republicans cannot unite. Republicans are much more positive about the prospect for party unity than are independents and Democrats, as shown in Table 2.

Table 2: Do you think the Republicans in the House of Representatives can unite to govern effectively, or were the divisions over the election of a Speaker of the House an indication that they cannot unite to govern effectively?

Party ID	Can unite	Cannot unite	Skipped/Ref
Total	41	58	0
Republican	67	33	0
Independent	32	66	2
Democrat	20	80	0

McCarthy is not yet well known to many Americans, with 39% saying they don’t know enough to have an opinion of him. He is viewed favorably by 19% and unfavorably by 42%. Republicans are much more favorable to McCarthy than are independents or Democrats, but it is notable that fewer Democrats lack an opinion of McCarthy than do Republicans, as shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Kevin McCarthy: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Party ID	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Total	19	42	39
Republican	38	20	43
Independent	5	31	61
Democrat	6	67	27

Former Speaker Nancy Pelosi is better known than McCarthy, with only 12% saying they don’t know enough to have an opinion of Pelosi. She is seen favorably by 31% and unfavorably by 57%. There are sharp partisan differences in views of Pelosi, as shown in Table 4. While the difference is small, Republicans are slightly more likely to have an opinion of Pelosi than are Democrats.

Table 4: Nancy Pelosi: Do you have a favorable or an unfavorable opinion of the following people or haven’t you heard enough yet to have an opinion?

Party ID	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Total	31	57	12
Republican	3	92	5
Independent	21	44	33
Democrat	61	30	9

With a divided Congress, we find that approval of the Republican House majority and Democratic Senate majority is virtually identical, but partisan differences are quite large. Forty-two percent approve of how the House Republican majority is handling its job, while 43% approve of how the Senate Democratic majority is doing its. Table 5 shows approval of the House and Senate majorities by party identification.

Table 5: Approval of House and Senate majority party performance

(a) Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the Republican majority in the House of Representatives is handling its job?

Party ID	Approve	Disapprove
Total	42	57
Republican	71	28
Independent	30	64
Democrat	19	81

(b) Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the Democratic majority in the U.S. Senate is handling its job?

Party ID	Approve	Disapprove
Total	43	56
Republican	8	92
Independent	31	64
Democrat	80	20

Ukraine

Thirty-two percent say they have heard or read a lot about Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s speech to a joint session of the U.S. Congress on Dec. 21, while 43% have heard a little and 25% have heard nothing at all. Democrats were slightly more likely to have heard a lot than Republicans, while independents were much less likely to have heard much, as shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s speech to a joint session of the U.S. Congress: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these?

Party ID	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
Total	32	43	25
Republican	31	46	24
Independent	18	40	42
Democrat	38	43	20

Awareness of news about the Russian invasion of Ukraine is much higher, with 69% having heard a lot about this, 26% a little, and 4% nothing at all. There is little difference in awareness of the Russian invasion between Democrats and Republicans, although independents are considerably less attentive to this topic, as shown in Table 7.

 

Table 7: The Russian invasion of Ukraine: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these?

Party ID	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
Total	69	26	4
Republican	73	24	2
Independent	49	37	14
Democrat	74	24	2

U.S. military aid to Ukraine has emerged as an issue with a partisan divide in recent months. In January, 29% say the U.S. is providing too much support to Ukraine, 24% say the U.S. is not giving enough support, and 46% say the U.S. is giving the right amount of aid. These opinions are only slightly changed from November, as shown in Table 8.

Table 8: When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine?

Poll dates	Too much support	Not enough support	About the right amount of support
11/15-22/22	32	23	45
1/9-20/23	29	24	46

Table 9 shows partisan differences on aid to Ukraine in the January poll. Just under half of Republicans, 47%, say the U.S. is providing too much aid, while 25% of independents and 14% of Democrats agree.

Table 9: When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine?

Party ID	Too much support	Not enough support	About the right amount of support
Total	29	24	46
Republican	47	15	38
Independent	25	33	39
Democrat	14	29	57

A majority of respondents say that what happens in the Ukraine conflict matters a great deal or some to life in the U.S., while about a quarter say it matters not much or not at all, as shown in Table 10. There are modest partisan differences on this question, but large majorities of all partisan camps say that it matters either a great deal or some to the U.S.

Table 10: How much do you think what happens in the Russia-Ukraine conflict matters to life in the United States?

Party ID	A great deal	Some	Not much	Not at all
Total	31	47	16	7
Republican	24	49	18	9
Independent	29	46	17	8
Democrat	37	46	13	4

On the more general question of U.S. involvement in world affairs, 59% say it is better for the country to take an active part, while 41% say the U.S. should stay out of world affairs. Independents are especially skeptical of U.S. involvement in the world, with 54% saying we should stay out and a minority, 42%, saying we should take an active part. Republicans are evenly split on this nation’s international involvement, and Democrats are substantially in favor of a U.S. role in the world, as shown in Table 11.

Table 11: Do you think it will be better for the future of the country if we take an active part in world affairs, or if we stay out of world affairs?

Party ID	Take an active part in world affairs	Stay out of world affairs
Total	59	41
Republican	50	50
Independent	42	54
Democrat	73	27

Favorability to political figures

While the 2024 presidential primaries remain a year away, public perception of possible candidates helps to understand the dynamics of the coming election. Table 12 shows the favorability ratings of five Republicans, including two prominent governors. This table is based on answers from registered voters who are Republicans or independents who say they lean to the Republican party. The margin of error for Republican registered voters is +/-6.1 percentage points.

Former President Donald Trump is by far the best known, with former Vice President Mike Pence and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis the next best known. Despite his higher rate of “haven’t heard enough,” DeSantis has a favorability rating one point higher than Trump. The two governors, including Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp, despite impressive wins in the November midterms, are far less well known, though with positive net favorability among those with an opinion.

Table 12: Favorability to Republican political figures, among registered voters who are Republicans or independents who lean Republican

Person	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
Donald Trump	70	28	2
Mike Pence	53	33	14
Ron DeSantis	71	10	19
Greg Abbott	46	7	46
Brian Kemp	23	10	67

On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden is nearly universally known, followed by Vice President Kamala Harris and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, with other Democrats less well known, as shown in Table 13. Here, the table is based on registered voters who are Democrats or are independents who say they lean Democratic. The margin of error for Democratic registered voters is +/-6.1 percentage points.

 

Table 13: Favorability to Democratic political figures, among registered voters who are Democrats or independents who lean Democrat

Person	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
Joe Biden	83	16	1
Kamala Harris	67	23	10
Bernie Sanders	75	14	11
Pete Buttigieg	53	13	34
Gretchen Whitmer	35	10	54

Biden has a very high favorable rating among Democrats, some 13 points higher than Trump’s favorability with Republicans. Harris and Sanders are equally well known, with a slightly higher favorability for Sanders. U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg is less well known, and Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer much less well known. All these Democrats have strong net favorability among these partisan voters.

Outlook for 2024

DeSantis has pulled ahead of Biden in a hypothetical 2024 matchup, with 45% support for DeSantis and 38% support for Biden. DeSantis has increased his support in polling since January 2022, while Biden’s support has declined in this poll. Some 17% say they would prefer someone else or would not vote. The trend in support is shown in Table 14. The margin of error for all registered voters is +/- 4 percentage points.

Table 14: If the 2024 election for president were held today between [Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, the Republican] and [President Joe Biden, the Democrat] would you vote for [Ron DeSantis] or for [Joe Biden]? (among registered voters)

Poll dates	Ron DeSantis	Joe Biden	Someone else	Wouldn’t vote
1/10-21/22	34	43	17	5
3/14-24/22	35	39	19	5
9/7-14/22	38	43	15	5
11/15-22/22	42	42	11	4
1/9-20/23	45	38	13	4

In this poll, Trump has improved his standing against Biden; that matchup is tied with 40% for each of them. About 20% say they prefer someone else or would not vote. The trend in preference between Biden and Trump is shown in Table 15.

 

Table 15: If the 2024 election for president were held today between [Former President Donald Trump, the Republican] and [President Joe Biden, the Democrat] would you vote for [Donald Trump] or for [Joe Biden]? (among registered voters)

Poll dates	Donald Trump	Joe Biden	Someone else	Wouldn’t vote
11/1-10/21	35	43	18	4
1/10-21/22	33	45	18	4
3/14-24/22	38	43	16	4
9/7-14/22	36	42	19	3
11/15-22/22	34	44	19	4
1/9-20/23	40	40	17	3

Both Republicans and Democrats are divided over Trump and Biden as their party’s nominees in 2024. Among Republicans and independents who lean Republican (hereafter “Republicans”), 52% would like to see Trump run in 2024, while 48% said they would not like him to run. (Trump announced his candidacy for the 2024 Republican nomination on Nov. 15.) In the November Marquette poll, 55% wanted Trump to run and 45% did not. The full trend since Nov. 2021 is shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Would you like to see Donald Trump run for president in 2024, or not? (among registered voters who are Republicans or independents who lean Republican)

Poll dates	Yes	No
11/1-10/21	60	40
1/10-21/22	56	44
3/14-24/22	61	39
5/9-19/22	61	38
7/5-12/22	64	35
9/7-14/22	60	40
11/15-22/22	55	45
1/9-20/23	52	48

Among registered Republican voters, 64% say they would like Ron DeSantis to run for president in 2024, while 34% would not like him to run. This gives DeSantis higher support than Trump for a presidential bid among Republican voters. This is the first time this question has been asked about DeSantis.

While it is likely there will be a number of Republican candidates for the 2024 nomination, when asked about a choice between only Trump and DeSantis, 64% prefer DeSantis and 36% prefer Trump.

There are small differences in support for Trump and DeSantis among Republican registered voters, with the subgroup of those who identify as “Republican” a bit more supportive of Trump and less of DeSantis relative to other groups of Republicans. Those who identify as “independent” but say they lean to the Republican party are a few points more supportive of DeSantis relative to other subgroups. Yet all subgroups give majority support to DeSantis, as shown in Table 17.

Table 17: If it were a choice between just the two of them, whom would you prefer as the Republican nominee for president in 2024: [Donald Trump] or [Ron DeSantis]? (among registered voters who are Republicans or independents who lean Republican)

Republican identification	Donald Trump	Ron DeSantis
All Republicans & Leaners	36	64
Republican	38	62
Lean Republican	31	68

Among registered voters who are Democrats or independents who lean Democratic, 49% would like to see Biden run in 2024 and 51% would not. There has been little change in support for a Biden candidacy, as shown in Table 18. It is notable that Democrats are evenly split on this question, despite the more than 80% favorability rating they give Biden in Table 13 above.

Table 18: Would you like to see Joe Biden run for president in 2024, or not? (among registered voters who are Democrats or independents who lean Democratic)

Poll dates	Yes	No
9/7-14/22	44	56
11/15-22/22	49	51
1/9-20/23	49	51

Confidence in the 2022 and 2020 elections

Sixty-five percent say they are very or somewhat confident in the accuracy of the 2022 elections, while 34% are not too or not at all confident in the results. Republicans remain less confident in election outcomes than independents or Democrats, as shown in Table 19.

Table 19: How confident are you that, across the country, the votes for state and national offices were accurately cast and counted in the elections this November 2022?

Party ID	Very confident	Somewhat confident	Not too confident	Not at all confident
Total	35	30	23	11
Republican	10	31	38	21
Independent	15	35	34	13
Democrat	67	28	3	1

Doubts about the 2020 election, especially among Republicans, are higher than for the 2022 vote, but majorities of all adults believe that both elections were accurately cast and counted. Table 20 shows confidence in the 2020 election and by party.

 

Table 20: How confident are you that, across the country, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election?

Party ID	Very confident	Somewhat confident	Not too confident	Not at all confident
Total	37	22	22	18
Republican	8	22	35	35
Independent	18	29	34	16
Democrat	71	21	5	2

Biden job approval

Biden’s job approval dipped by two points since November, with 43% approval and 56% disapproval. The trend in presidential approval since July 2021 is shown in Table 21.

News that classified documents had been found in Biden’s University of Pennsylvania office broke on Jan. 9, as this poll began interviewing. On Jan. 12, the Justice Department appointed a special counsel to investigate “possible unauthorized removal and retention of classified documents or other records.” These developments came too late for inclusion in questions in this survey, although the news may have affected Biden’s approval rating during interviewing from Jan. 9-20.

Table 21: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
7/16-26/21	58	42
9/7-16/21	48	52
11/1-10/21	49	51
1/10-21/22	46	53
3/14-24/22	44	55
5/9-19/22	42	57
7/5-12/22	36	64
9/7-14/22	45	55
11/15-22/22	45	55
1/9-20/23	43	56

House Select Committee on Jan. 6

The House Select Committee on Jan. 6 issued its final report on Dec. 22. In the January poll, 30% of respondents said they had heard a lot about the report, 45% said they heard a little, and 25% said they heard nothing at all.

Since July, there has been no change in perception whether the House committee has presented convincing evidence that Trump sought to delay certification of the election results, as shown in Table 22.

 

Table 22: Has the House Select Committee on January 6th presented convincing evidence that Donald Trump sought to prevent or delay certification of the results of the 2020 presidential election, or has the evidence not been convincing?

Poll dates	Has been convincing	Has not been convincing
7/5-12/22	52	48
9/7-14/22	52	48
1/9-20/23	52	48

There has been only slightly more change in the belief that Trump bears responsibility for the violence of some of his supporters on Jan. 6, 2021, with a five-point decline in the percentage saying he bears a lot of responsibility.

Table 23: How much responsibility, if any, should Donald Trump bear for the violence of some of his supporters in the United States Capitol on January 6, 2021?

Poll dates	A lot	A little	None at all
7/5-12/22	52	18	30
9/7-14/22	50	19	30
1/9-20/23	47	22	31

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted Jan. 9-20, 2023, interviewing 1,000 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points, and 876 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. The registered voter Republican subsample of 382 respondents has a margin of error of +/-6.1 percentage points, and the registered voter Democratic subsample of 392 respondents has a margin of error is +/-6.1 percentage points.

Certain other data from this survey (those about public views of the Supreme Court) were released yesterday, Jan. 25, and can be found on the Marquette Law School Poll website.

Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available online.

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds that 47% of adults approve of the job the U.S. Supreme Court is doing, while 53% disapprove. Approval of the Court has been rising from a recent low point of 38% in July 2022, although it remains well below the 60% approval rate in July 2021. In November 2022, the most recent Marquette national survey, 44% of the public approved and 56% disapproved.

The trend in approval since 2020 is shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
9/8-15/20	66	33
7/16-26/21	60	39
9/7-16/21	49	50
11/1-10/21	54	46
1/10-21/22	52	46
3/14-24/22	54	45
5/9-19/22	44	55
7/5-12/22	38	61
9/7-14/22	40	60
11/15-22/22	44	56
1/9-20/23	47	53

The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s national Supreme Court survey was conducted Jan. 9-20, 2023. The survey interviewed 1,000 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-3.8 percentage points.

Partisan differences in approval of the Court are quite pronounced in the current poll, in contrast to minimal such differences as recently as July 2021. Table 2 shows approval by partisanship then and now.

Table 2: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?, by party identification

(a) January 2023

Party ID	Approve	Disapprove
Republican	67	33
Independent	42	58
Democrat	35	65

(b) July 2021

Party ID	Approve	Disapprove
Republican	57	42
Independent	61	37
Democrat	59	40

Shifts in approval have been substantial in a short period since 2020. Table 3 shows approval by party in each of the Marquette polls since September 2020. The sharp increase in party polarization about opinion of the Court began in September 2021, decreased somewhat through March 2022, and then increased in May following the leak of the draft decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, overturning Roe v. Wade. Partisan differences further intensified in July following the Court’s ruling in Dobbs. In the months since, approval among independents and Democrats has moved upward from their low points while Republican approval has fluctuated between 65% and 71%.

Table 3: Approval of the Court, by party identification, Sept. 2020-Jan. 2023

Poll dates	Republican	Independent	Democrat
9/8-15/20	80	64	57
7/16-26/21	57	61	59
9/7-16/21	61	51	37
11/1-10/21	61	53	49
1/10-21/22	60	52	45
3/14-24/22	64	51	52
5/9-19/22	71	38	28
7/5-12/22	67	39	15
9/7-14/22	65	34	24
11/15-22/22	70	40	28
1/9-20/23	67	42	35

Knowledge of the Court

The Supreme Court is not constantly in the news, as is the case with Congress or the president. Rather, Court coverage is concentrated around the announcement of decisions and, to some extent, the argument of cases or the appointment of justices. This fluctuating pattern of news means the public may not hear about cases before they are ultimately decided.

In this new survey, 17% said they had heard or read a lot about “a Supreme Court case concerning the use of race in college admissions,” 47% had heard a little, and 36% had heard nothing at all. The cases, Students for Fair Admissions, Inc. v. President & Fellows of Harvard College and Students for Fair Admissions, Inc. v. University of North Carolina were argued Oct. 31. In the November national Marquette Law School Poll, conducted shortly after oral argument in the cases, 20% of the public had heard a lot, 45% had heard a little, and 34% had heard nothing about this case.

On Dec. 7, the Court heard arguments in Moore v. Harper, concerning the powers of a state legislature to set the rules for federal elections in the state. In January, 16% said they had heard a lot about this case, 46% had heard a little, and 38% had heard nothing at all.

For comparison, a large share of the public said they had “heard a lot” about the Court’s Dobbs abortion case after the decision had been made, and this remained at high levels through November, as shown in Table 4. This question was not repeated in the January poll.

Table 4: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these? A Supreme Court decision on abortion.

Poll dates	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
7/5-12/22	81	15	3
9/7-14/22	84	13	3
11/15-22/22	76	20	3

Another measure of knowledge about the Court is awareness of which party’s presidents have nominated a majority of justices on the Court. Nomination and confirmation debates have drawn intense news coverage for many years, yet 23% say they think a majority of justices were nominated by Democratic presidents. Another 41% say a majority were “probably” nominated by Republican presidents, and 36% give the correct answer, that a majority was “definitely” nominated by Republican presidents.

Since 2019, the percentage of adults who say there is “definitely” a majority of justices nominated by Republican presidents has almost doubled, from 19% in September 2019 to 36% in January 2023. Meanwhile there has been only a modest reduction in the percent who say a majority was definitely or probably nominated by Democratic presidents, a shift from 27% in September 2019 to 23% in January 2023. This trend is shown in Table 5.

Table 5: What is your guess as to whether a majority of the current U.S. Supreme Court Justices were appointed by Democratic or Republican presidents?

Poll dates	Definitely/Probably Dem majority	Probably Rep majority	Definitely Rep majority
9/3-13/19	27	53	19
9/8-15/20	28	51	21
7/16-26/21	24	45	30
9/7-16/21	25	46	29
11/1-10/21	28	44	28
1/10-21/22	23	44	33
3/14-24/22	28	47	24
5/9-19/22	31	39	31
7/5-12/22	20	40	40
9/7-14/22	22	40	37
11/15-22/22	24	40	35
1/9-20/23	23	41	36

Partisans differ in their awareness of the Court’s majority, with Republicans more likely to think Democratic appointees form the majority and less certain that their own party appointed the majority. In contrast, Democrats are more likely to correctly identify the Court majority as Republican appointees, as shown in Table 6.

Table 6: What is your guess as to whether a majority of the current U.S. Supreme Court justices were appointed by Democratic or Republican presidents?, by party identification

Party ID	Definitely/Probably Dem majority	Probably Rep majority	Definitely Rep majority
Republican	26	40	34
Independent	25	44	30
Democrat	16	38	46

Pending cases

In the current term, the Court is considering cases on use of race in college admissions, whether religious beliefs and free speech rights allow certain businesses to refuse to provide some services to LGTBQ customers, and the power of state legislatures to set the rules for federal elections, among others.

The survey finds that the public is skeptical of the use of race in admissions, with 35% in favor of a decision that would ban the use of race and 16% opposed. The case is not yet on the top of the mind of most respondents, however, with 49% saying they haven’t heard anything about such a case or haven’t heard enough to have an opinion.

This topic has seen consistent opposition to the use of race in admissions in Marquette polling since September 2021, as shown in Table 7. Those saying they haven’t heard anything or haven’t heard enough increased over the summer, from 33% in March to 50% in September. Table 7 (a) shows views including those who have not heard enough about the issue to have an opinion, and Table 7 (b) shows the percentages for only those with an opinion.

Table 7: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Rule that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit.

(a) Among all respondents

Poll dates	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor	Oppose
9/7-16/21	33	53	13
3/14-24/22	33	49	17
9/7-14/22	50	37	13
11/15-22/22	42	41	16
1/9-20/23	49	35	16

(b) Among those with an opinion

Poll dates	Heard of and favor	Heard of and oppose
9/7-16/21	81	19
3/14-24/22	75	25
9/7-14/22	74	26
11/15-22/22	72	28
1/9-20/23	68	32

While large percentages say they haven’t heard enough about the college admissions case, more within each race and ethnic group favor banning race as a factor in admissions than think race should continue to be considered. Table 8 (a) shows views including those who have not heard enough about the issue, and Table 8 (b) shows the percentages for only those with an opinion. To increase the sample size of Black and Hispanic respondents, this table combines responses from September 2022, November 2022, and January 2023.

Table 8: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Rule that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit. By race of the respondent.

(a) Among all respondents, Sept. & Nov. 2022, Jan. 2023

Race & ethnicity	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor	Oppose
White	44	42	14
Black	54	24	21
Hispanic	55	30	15

(b) Among those with an opinion Sept. & Nov. 2022, Jan. 2023

Race & ethnicity	Heard of and favor	Heard of and oppose
White	75	25
Black	53	47
Hispanic	67	33

In the January poll, 20% of Hispanic respondents said they favored ending the use of race, while 23% said they were opposed. This is different from the larger pooled sample, while opinions of other groups in January did not differ materially from the pooled results.

There are substantial partisan differences on this issue as shown in Table 9, with majorities of Republicans and independents in favor of banning the use of race while a majority of Democrats are opposed, among those with an opinion about the case.

Table 9: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Rule that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit. By party identification.

(a) Among all respondents

Party ID	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor	Oppose
Republican	43	49	8
Independent	54	34	13
Democrat	48	23	29

(b) Among those with an opinion

Party ID	Heard of and favor	Heard of and oppose
Republican	86	14
Independent	72	28
Democrat	44	56

Another case, argued Dec. 5, 2022, is 303 Creative LLC v. Elenis, which poses the question whether the religious beliefs or free speech rights of business owners can justify refusing to provide some services to LGBTQ customers. As with college admissions, a substantial 43% of respondents have not heard of this case or have not heard enough to have an opinion.  Among those with an opinion, a majority, 57%, oppose a decision allowing such a business to refuse services, while 43% favor such a ruling. The trend in opinion on this question is shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Decide that a business owner’s religious beliefs or free speech rights can justify refusing some services to gay people.

(a) Among all respondents

Poll dates	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor	Oppose
3/14-24/22	29	28	43
9/7-14/22	44	21	35
11/15-22/22	35	25	40
1/9-20/23	43	24	33

(b) Among those with an opinion

Poll dates	Heard of and favor	Heard of and oppose
3/14-24/22	39	61
9/7-14/22	37	63
11/15-22/22	39	61
1/9-20/23	43	57

Those who favor the Court’s 2015 decision finding that there is a constitutional right to same-sex marriage are strongly opposed to allowing businesses to refuse services, while those who oppose the same-sex marriage ruling favor a ruling that would allow businesses to choose not to provide services, as shown in Table 11.

Table 11: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Decide that a business owner’s religious beliefs or free speech rights can justify refusing some services to gay people. By opinion of same-sex marriage ruling.

(a) Among all respondents

Favor/oppose same sex marriage ruling	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor	Oppose
Favor	41	13	46
Oppose	45	48	6

(b) Among those with an opinion

Favor/oppose same sex marriage ruling	Heard of and favor	Heard of and oppose
Favor	22	78
Oppose	88	12

On Dec. 7, the Court heard arguments in Moore v. Harper, addressing the “independent state legislature” theory, which holds that, under the Constitution, only the legislature has the power to regulate federal elections and state courts cannot overturn the legislature’s decisions.

Most respondents, 69%, have not heard anything or not enough to have an opinion about this case, while 9% favor a ruling that state legislatures have sole authority and 22% oppose unchecked authority of legislatures.

Among those who do have an opinion on this case, 28% favor the independent power of legislatures, while 72% are opposed to this view of legislative authority.

These results are shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Rule that under the Constitution, the state legislatures have the power to regulate federal elections and are not subject to review by state courts.

(a) Among all respondents

Poll dates	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor	Oppose
11/15-22/22	70	7	22
1/9-20/23	69	9	22

(b) Among those with an opinion

Poll dates	Heard of and favor	Heard of and oppose
11/15-22/22	25	75
1/9-20/23	28	72

The independent legislature theory is not well known, as the fact of 69% who say they’ve not heard enough to have an opinion attests. Of those with an opinion, Republicans are closely divided, with 52% in favor and 48% opposed to this view of legislative authority. Among independents with an opinion, 32% favor and 68% oppose ruling for expansive legislative authority, while among Democrats with an opinion, 11% favor and 89% oppose such a ruling.

Prior decisions

In the current survey, 35% favor the June decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, overturning Roe v. Wade, while 64% oppose that ruling. The Nov. 2022 and Jan. 2023 responses are shown in Table 13.

Table 13: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
11/15-22/22	33	66
1/9-20/23	35	64

Looking back to earlier decisions, a substantial majority, 67%, favor the Court’s 2015 ruling establishing a right to same sex marriage, while 33% are opposed. This trend is shown in Table 14.

Table 14: In 2015 the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
5/9-19/22	69	31
7/5-12/22	66	34
9/7-14/22	71	29
11/15-22/22	72	28
1/9-20/23	67	33

Perceptions of the ideology of the Court

The perceived ideology of the Court has moved in the conservative direction since 2019, with 59% saying in January 2023 that the Court is very conservative or conservative. That compares with 38% in the first Marquette national survey in September 2019. The percentage seeing the Court as moderate has decreased from 50% in 2019 to 31% in January 2023. The full trend is shown in Table 15.

Table 15: In general, would you describe each of the following as very conservative, conservative, moderate, liberal, or very liberal? The Supreme Court

Poll dates	Very conservative	Somewhat conservative	Moderate	Somewhat liberal	Very liberal
9/3-13/19	5	33	50	9	3
9/8-15/20	5	30	54	9	2
7/16-26/21	13	37	42	6	1
9/7-16/21	16	35	40	7	2
11/1-10/21	15	35	39	8	1
1/10-21/22	17	38	35	8	2
3/14-24/22	15	37	36	10	2
5/9-19/22	23	33	34	8	2
7/5-12/22	34	33	21	7	3
9/7-14/22	29	35	27	5	3
11/15-22/22	25	36	32	6	2
1/9-20/23	22	37	31	8	2

The public has come to think that the Court should pay more attention to public opinion in reaching its decisions. In September 2020, 44% said the Court should consider public opinion, while 55% said it should not. In the current survey, more than two years later, by contrast, 56% say public opinion should be considered and 44% say it should not be considered. The trend is shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Should justices of the Supreme Court consider public opinion about a case when making decisions or should they ignore public opinion?

Poll dates	Should consider public opinion	Should ignore public opinion
9/8-15/20	44	55
9/7-16/21	41	59
7/5-12/22	54	46
9/7-14/22	61	39
11/15-22/22	61	39
1/9-20/23	56	44

In polls since 2020, a substantial majority of the public consistently has said that the Court should overturn previous decisions if a majority of the Court thinks the case was wrongly decided. Support for following previous decisions rose modestly as the potential of overturning Roe v. Wade became more salient, but has declined modestly since July, as shown in Table 17.

Table 17: Should justices of the Supreme Court follow previous decisions whenever possible or should the Court overturn previous decisions if a majority of the Court believes the case was wrongly decided?

Poll dates	Follow previous decisions	Overturn if a majority think it was wrongly decided
9/8-15/20	18	81
9/7-16/21	26	74
7/5-12/22	33	66
1/9-20/23	28	72

The perception of whether politics or the law most often motivates justices’ decisions has shifted in 2022 and 2023, compared to earlier years. There has been a generally even divide since January 2022. In earlier years, a substantial majority said the law was the main motivation.

Table 18: In general, what most often motivates Supreme Court justices’ decisions, mainly politics or mainly the law?

Poll dates	Mainly politics	Mainly the law
9/3-13/19	35	64
9/8-15/20	37	62
7/16-26/21	29	71
9/7-16/21	39	61
11/1-10/21	30	70
1/10-21/22	47	53
7/5-12/22	52	48
1/9-20/23	49	51

Confidence in the Court and other institutions

Confidence in the Court has declined since 2019. Then 37% had a great deal or quite a lot of confidence, while 31% have similar confidence in January 2023. Those with very little or no confidence increased from 20% in September 2019 to 31% in January 2023. The full trend is shown in Table 19.

Table 19: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? . . . The U.S. Supreme Court.

Poll dates	Great deal/quite a lot	Some	Very little/None
9/3-13/19	37	42	20
9/8-15/20	39	45	16
7/5-12/22	28	28	44
9/7-14/22	30	34	36
11/15-22/22	30	36	34
1/9-20/23	31	38	31

Confidence in a number of institutions is shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one?

Institution	Great deal/quite a lot	Some	Very little/None
The police	50	29	21
The FBI	39	32	28
The U.S. Supreme Court	31	38	31
Your state Supreme Court or highest court in your state	31	44	25
The Presidency	26	30	43
Your state legislature	25	46	29
Congress	13	43	44

Trust in government in Washington

Trust in the government in Washington to do what is right remains at low levels. That has been typical of recent polling, as shown in Table 21.

Table 21: How much of the time do you think you can trust the government in Washington to do what is right?

Poll dates	Just about always	Most of the time	Only some of the time	Never
9/7-16/21	2	25	57	16
11/1-10/21	2	22	59	17
1/10-21/22	1	17	63	18
3/14-24/22	2	21	58	18
5/9-19/22	1	21	56	21
7/5-12/22	1	18	63	17
9/7-14/22	2	20	63	15
11/15-22/22	2	23	62	13
1/9-20/23	1	20	61	16

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted Jan. 9-20, 2023, interviewing 1,000 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.8 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available online. Some items from this survey (more generally about political topics) are held for a separate release tomorrow (Thursday, Jan. 26, 2023).

Wording of questions about future and past Supreme Court decisions: These items do not attempt to exactly frame the particular issues in specific cases but rather address the topic in more general terms.

The wording of questions about cases before the Court in the October 2022 Term includes:

Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion?

The wording of questions about previous decisions includes:

Opinion of Dobbs decisions, striking down Roe v. Wade

Opinion of same-sex marriage decision:

In 2015, the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?