MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds that 45% of adults approve of the job the U.S. Supreme Court is doing and 55% disapprove. While approval remains below disapproval, this is a 4-percentage point increase in approval since May and the second highest rating since March 2022, when approval stood at 54%. The trend in approval since 2020 is shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.) For each of five June 2023 decisions inquired about, a plurality of people with an opinion favored the Court’s ruling, as discussed after the first two tables.

Table 1: Supreme Court approval

Among adults

Poll dates	Approval
	Approve	Disapprove
7/7-12/23	45	55
5/8-18/23	41	59
3/13-22/23	44	56
1/9-20/23	47	53
11/15-22/22	44	56
9/7-14/22	40	60
7/5-12/22	38	61
5/9-19/22	44	55
3/14-24/22	54	45
1/10-21/22	52	46
11/1-10/21	54	46
9/7-16/21	49	50
7/16-26/21	60	39
9/8-15/20	66	33
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?

Approval among Republicans rose by 12 percentage points, to 71% in July, up from 59% in May. Approval among independents rose 2 percentage points, while among Democrats it declined 2 percentage points from May to July. Approval of the Court by party identification is shown in Table 2 for July and for May.

Table 2: Approval of the Supreme Court, with party identification, May and July 2023

Among adults

Party ID	Approval
	Approve	Disapprove
July 2023
Total	45	55
Republican	71	29
Independent	40	60
Democrat	24	76
May 2023
Total	41	59
Republican	59	41
Independent	38	62
Democrat	26	74
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?

Other headlines

• Each of five decisions released in June 2023 and included in the survey found a plurality of support, with at least two-thirds awareness in cases involving race in college admissions, student-loan forgiveness, and religious beliefs and free speech:
  • Half of all respondents, 50%, favored the Court’s decision that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit, while 37% favored the decision against President Biden’s student loan forgiveness program and 35% favored the decision that a business owner’s religious beliefs or free speech rights can justify refusing some services to gay people. About a third of those surveyed had not heard enough to weigh in on the decisions.
• Cases involving the need for employers to accommodate religious practices and Alabama’s congressional map elicited awareness of only about one-third of respondents:
  • A ruling that federal civil rights law requires an employer to accommodate an employee’s religious practice was favored by 27%, but 63% had not heard enough to have an opinion. Similarly, 24% favored the ruling that Alabama, in drawing a congressional districting map, had diluted the power of Black voters, in violation of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, but 66% had not heard enough.

The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s national Supreme Court survey was conducted July 7-12, 2023. The survey interviewed 1,005 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points.

Confidence in the Court as an institution rose in July, with 31% of respondents saying they have a great deal or a lot of confidence in the Court, an increase from May when 25% said the same. The full trend is shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Confidence in the U.S. Supreme Court

Among adults

Poll dates	Confidence
	Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
7/7-12/23	31	32	37
5/8-18/23	25	36	39
3/13-22/23	28	40	32
1/9-20/23	31	38	31
11/15-22/22	30	36	34
9/7-14/22	30	34	36
7/5-12/22	28	28	44
9/8-15/20	39	45	16
9/3-13/19	37	42	20
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? . . . The U.S. Supreme Court.

Confidence in Congress and in the presidency also increased from May to July, though by less than confidence in the Court. In July, 14% said they had a great deal or a lot of confidence in Congress, up from 11% in May. Those saying the same about the presidency were 28% in July, compared to 25% in May. These trends are shown in Table 4 and Table 5.

Table 4: Confidence in Congress

Among adults

Poll dates	Confidence
	Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
7/7-12/23	14	44	43
5/8-18/23	11	41	49
3/13-22/23	15	43	42
1/9-20/23	13	43	44
11/15-22/22	17	43	40
9/7-14/22	16	37	47
7/5-12/22	10	35	56
9/8-15/20	13	42	44
9/3-13/19	10	39	51
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? . . . Congress.

Table 5: Confidence in the presidency

Among adults

Poll dates	Confidence
	Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
7/7-12/23	28	32	40
5/8-18/23	25	30	45
3/13-22/23	26	34	40
1/9-20/23	26	30	43
11/15-22/22	30	33	37
9/7-14/22	33	29	38
7/5-12/22	21	31	48
9/8-15/20	31	23	45
9/3-13/19	28	25	47
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? . . . The presidency

The Department of Justice has become the subject of debate over its handling of a number of prosecutions and investigations in recent years. Overall, 25% say they have a great deal or a lot of confidence in the DOJ, while 34% say they have some confidence, with a substantial 41% saying they have little or no confidence.

Partisans are substantially divided concerning the Department of Justice, with a majority of Republicans expressing little or no confidence. Only 16% of Democrats say the same. These differences are shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Confidence in the Department of Justice, with party identification, July 2023

Among adults

Party ID	Confidence
	Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
Total	25	34	41
Republican	13	29	58
Independent	22	33	45
Democrat	42	42	16
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? . . . The U.S. Department of Justice

Confidence in the national news media remains at low levels, with 13% expressing a great deal or a lot of confidence, 27% saying they have some confidence, and a majority, 60%, saying they have little or no confidence. The partisan divisions are also sharp, as shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Confidence in the national news media, with party identification, May and July 2023

Among adults

Party ID	Confidence
	Great deal/a lot	Some	Little/None
July 2023
Total	13	27	60
Republican	3	14	83
Independent	9	28	63
Democrat	29	40	31
May 2023
Total	16	27	57
Republican	6	16	78
Independent	11	27	62
Democrat	33	39	28
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? . . . The national news media

Attention to news concerning the Supreme Court varies considerably across topics, as shown in Table 8. Two decisions, concerning student-loan forgiveness and concerning the use of race in college admissions, drew high levels of attention, with more than half of respondents saying they heard or read a lot about these topics. In contrast, fewer than 20% said they had heard or read a lot about decisions involving congressional districting in Alabama or the power of state legislatures to set rules for federal elections. A similarly low percentage, 15%, heard a lot about Justice Samuel Alito’s financial disclosure reports. For comparison, in May, about twice as many, 33%, had heard a lot about Justice Clarence Thomas’ financial disclosure reports.

Table 8: Attention to news concerning U.S. Supreme Court

Among adults

Topic	Amount heard or read about…
	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
A Supreme Court case concerning student-loan forgiveness	56	38	7
A Supreme Court case concerning the use of race in college admissions	51	31	18
A Supreme Court case concerning the powers of state legislatures to set the rules for federal elections for Congress and president	17	46	38
News stories about Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito’s financial disclosure reports	15	33	51
A Supreme Court case concerning congressional districts in Alabama	10	36	54
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Here are some recent topics in the news. How much have you heard or read about each of these?

Awareness of the makeup of the Court, in terms of which party’s presidents have appointed a majority of justices, rose in July, with 36% saying Republican presidents had definitely appointed a majority of justices, 42% saying Republican presidents had probably done so, and 22% believing a majority had definitely or probably been appointed by Democrats. The percentage correctly saying Republicans appointed a majority has generally increased since 2019, though it ebbs and flows, as shown in Table 9.

Table 9: Majority of Court appointed by which party’s presidents

Among adults

Poll dates	Majority appointed by
	Definitely/Probably Dem majority	Probably Rep majority	Definitely Rep majority
7/7-12/23	22	42	36
5/8-18/23	29	41	30
3/13-22/23	27	41	31
1/9-20/23	23	41	36
11/15-22/22	24	40	35
9/7-14/22	22	40	37
7/5-12/22	20	40	40
5/9-19/22	31	39	31
3/14-24/22	28	47	24
1/10-21/22	23	44	33
11/1-10/21	28	44	28
9/7-16/21	25	46	29
7/16-26/21	24	45	30
9/8-15/20	28	51	21
9/3-13/19	27	53	19
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: What is your guess as to whether a majority of the current U.S. Supreme Court justices were appointed by Democratic or Republican presidents?

Awareness of and opinion about recent decisions

While many people lack information about individual Court decisions, a plurality favor each of five particular decisions that were handed down in June and inquired about in the survey. The percentage favoring and opposing each decision varies, as does the degree of awareness, as shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Awareness and opinion on recent U.S. Supreme Court decisions

Among adults

Court Decision	Awareness and opinion
	Not heard enough	Favor	Oppose
Ruled that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit	28	50	22
Ruled that the Biden administration exceeded the authority granted to it by Congress to alter loan conditions, thus striking down the student-loan forgiveness policy	32	37	31
Ruled that a business owner’s religious beliefs or free speech rights can justify refusing some services to gay people	33	35	32
Ruled that federal civil rights law requires an employer to accommodate an employee’s religious practice unless it can show that doing so would result in substantial increased costs to the employer	63	27	11
Ruled that Alabama, in drawing a congressional districting map, diluted the power of Black voters, in violation of the Voting Rights Act of 1965	66	24	10
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Do you favor or oppose the following recent Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion?

Respondents were asked if they thought that the Court, over the past 15 years or so, had expanded or reduced the rights protected for each of several groups. Those responses are shown in Table 11. Respondents perceive an increase in rights protected for LGBTQ people and for religious people and organizations, while there is a nearly even split in seeing increased or reduced rights for gun owners and voting rights for minority groups. Rights of those seeking an abortion are seen by a large majority as having been reduced.

Table 11: Has the Court expanded or reduced rights protected?

Among adults

Group	Change in rights protected
	Expanded rights	Reduced rights	Has not changed much either way
Lesbian, gay, bisexual and transgender (LGBTQ) people	56	25	19
Religious people and organizations	42	23	35
Gun owners	32	29	39
Voting rights of racial or ethnic minorities	30	29	41
Those seeking an abortion	9	78	13
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Over the past 15 years or so would you say the Supreme Court has generally expanded or reduced the rights protected for each of these groups or has it not changed much either way?

Respondents were asked about past decisions concerning abortion, same-sex marriage, and anti-discrimination protection for gay and transgender employees. Those results are shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Favor or oppose past decisions of the U.S. Supreme Court

Among adults

Decision	Favor or oppose decision
	Strongly favor	Somewhat favor	Somewhat oppose	Strongly oppose
In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states	23	15	15	47
In 2015, the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage	42	23	16	18
In 2020, the Supreme Court ruled that a federal civil rights law protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination	50	31	12	7
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Public perception of the ideology of the U.S. Supreme Court has shifted in a conservative direction since 2019, as shown in Table 13. In September 2019, 38% of the public saw the Court as very or somewhat conservative. In the current poll, 62% see the Court that way. Over this same period, the percent saying the Court is moderate has declined from 50% to 28%.

Table 13: Perceived ideology of the U.S. Supreme Court

Among adults

Poll dates	Perceived ideology
	Very conservative	Somewhat conservative	Moderate	Somewhat liberal	Very liberal
7/7-12/23	27	35	28	7	3
5/8-18/23	24	33	30	10	3
3/13-22/23	23	35	34	6	2
1/9-20/23	22	37	31	8	2
11/15-22/22	25	36	32	6	2
9/7-14/22	29	35	27	5	3
7/5-12/22	34	33	21	7	3
5/9-19/22	23	33	34	8	2
3/14-24/22	15	37	36	10	2
1/10-21/22	17	38	35	8	2
11/1-10/21	15	35	39	8	1
9/7-16/21	16	35	40	7	2
7/16-26/21	13	37	42	6	1
9/8-15/20	5	30	54	9	2
9/3-13/19	5	33	50	9	3
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: In general, would you describe each of the following as…? . . . The U.S. Supreme Court.

Since 2019 there has been an increase in the percentage of the public who think that the justices’ decisions are motivated mainly by politics, rising from 35% in 2019 to 58% in July 2023, with a sharp upturn since the end of 2021. The full trend is shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Are justices’ decisions motivated mainly by the law or mainly by politics?

Among adults

Poll dates	Perceived motivation
	Mainly politics	Mainly the law
7/7-12/23	58	42
1/9-20/23	49	51
7/5-12/22	52	48
1/10-21/22	47	53
11/1-10/21	30	70
9/7-16/21	39	61
7/16-26/21	29	71
9/8-15/20	37	62
9/3-13/19	35	64
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: In general, what most often motivates Supreme Court justices’ decisions?

Recent news concerning the justices’ financial disclosures and related matters have raised attention to the ethical standards of the Court. The public remains evenly divided in its perceptions of the honesty and ethical standards of the justices, with about a third of the public rating the justices as having very high or high honesty and ethical standards, a third rating the justices as average in this regard, and a third saying the justices have low or very low standards. The percentage rating the justices’ standards as very high or high increased from about a quarter in May. Table 15 shows the results for May and for July.

Table 15: Honesty and ethical standards of U.S. Supreme Court justices

Among adults

Poll dates	Perceived honesty and ethical standards
	Very high/high	Average	Low/Very low
7/7-12/23	32	33	35
5/8-18/23	26	39	35
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Please tell me how you would rate the honesty and ethical standards of people in these different fields? . . . U.S. Supreme Court justices

Respondents were also asked about the honesty and ethical standards of judges in their state, lawyers, journalists, and people in cable TV news. Those results for the July poll are shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Honesty and ethical standards of legal and news professions

Among adults

Group	Honesty and ethical standards
	Very high/high	Average	Low/Very low
U.S. Supreme Court justices	32	33	35
Judges in your state	25	51	25
Journalists	16	42	42
Lawyers	14	47	39
Cable TV news	8	33	60
Marquette Law School Poll, national survey, July 7-12, 2023
Question: Please tell me how you would rate the honesty and ethical standards of people in these different fields?

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted July 7-12, 2023, interviewing 1,005 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available on the Marquette Law Poll website. Some items from this survey are held for later release.

Wording of questions about future and past Supreme Court decisions: These items do not attempt to exactly frame the particular issues in specific cases but rather address the topic in more general terms.

The wording of questions about cases decided in June includes:

Do you favor or oppose the following recent Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion?

• Ruled that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit.
• Ruled that a business owner’s religious beliefs or free speech rights can justify refusing some services to gay people.
• Ruled that the Biden administration exceeded the authority granted to it by Congress to alter loan conditions, thus striking down the student loan forgiveness policy.
• Ruled that Alabama, in drawing a congressional districting map, diluted the power of Black voters, in violation of the Voting Rights Act of 1965.
• Ruled that federal civil rights law requires an employer to accommodate an employee’s religious practice unless it can show that doing so would result in substantial increased costs to the employer.

The wording of questions about previous decisions include:

Opinion of Dobbs decisions, striking down Roe v. Wade

• In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Opinion of same-sex marriage decision:

• In 2015 the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Opinion on anti-discrimination law protecting gay and transgender employees

In 2020, the Supreme Court ruled that a federal civil rights law protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette University Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin voters finds 57% approve of the job Gov. Tony Evers is doing as governor and 39% disapprove. In October 2022, 46% approved and 47% disapproved. Despite the governor’s approval, 57% think the state is on the wrong track, while 40% say it is headed in the right direction—a minimal change from the October survey.

Other headlines

• Among Republicans and independents who lean Republican, the GOP presidential primary is a near-even divide, with 31% supporting former President Donald Trump and 30% supporting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Former Vice President Mike Pence is the choice of 6% and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott receives 5%.
• If the election were held today and DeSantis were the GOP nominee against Biden, it would be a very close race, with 49% for Biden, 47% for DeSantis, and 4% declining to choose. Biden has a materially larger lead over Trump in a hypothetical matchup, with 52% for Biden to Trump’s 43% and 4% undecided.

The survey was conducted June 8-13, 2023, interviewing 913 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points. The sample includes 419 Republicans and independents who lean Republican and were asked about their preferences in the Republican presidential primary, with a margin of error of +/-6.5 percentage points. The Democratic primary preference was asked of 453 Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, with a margin of error of +/-6 percentage points.

State approval

Table 1 shows approval of Governor Evers by partisanship in the current poll and, for comparison, in October 2022. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: Evers approval, by party identification

(a) June 2023

Party ID	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	17	79	4	0
Independent	60	35	5	0
Democrat	93	4	1	1

(b) October 2022

Party ID	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	5	90	4	0
Independent	44	45	8	3
Democrat	94	2	3	0

Among registered voters, 57% think the state is on the wrong track, while 40% say it is headed in the right direction. In October 2022, 58% said the state was on the wrong track and 34% said it was moving in the right direction. Partisan differences on this question are shown in Table 2. Opinion is slightly less polarized by party in June than was the case on the eve of the 2022 election.

Table 2: Wisconsin headed in right direction or wrong track, by party identification

(a) June 2023

Party ID	Right direction	Wrong track	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	23	77	0	0
Independent	44	53	3	0
Democrat	53	43	4	0

(b) October 2022

Party ID	Right direction	Wrong track	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	12	84	4	1
Independent	34	59	7	0
Democrat	57	28	13	3

Voters remain negative about how government in Wisconsin is working, with 64% saying it is “broken” and 32% saying it is working as intended. Unlike many measures of political opinion, there is very little difference by partisanship in this view, as shown in Table 3, with about two-thirds of each partisan group saying government is broken.

 

Table 3: Wisconsin government working as intended or broken, by party identification

Party ID	Working as intended	Is broken	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	30	68	2	0
Independent	34	64	2	1
Democrat	31	64	5	0

Biden approval

Approval of how Joe Biden is handling his job as president is 45%, with disapproval at 53%. In October 2022, 41% approved and 54% disapproved. Table 4 shows approval remains highly polarized by party, with independents becoming somewhat more approving of Biden since October.

Table 4: Biden approval by party identification

(a) June 2023

Party ID	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	1	97	1	0
Independent	46	52	1	0
Democrat	89	9	1	1

(b) October 2022

Party ID	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	3	96	2	0
Independent	36	56	7	2
Democrat	90	9	1	0

Presidential primary outlook

Among Republicans and independents who lean Republican, the GOP presidential primary is a near-even divide, with 31% supporting former President Donald Trump and 30% supporting Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. Former Vice President Mike Pence is the choice of 6% and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott receives 5%. The full list of candidates is shown in Table 5. A substantial 21% say they have not decided whom to support.

 

Table 5: Republican presidential primary preferences, among Republicans and independents who lean Republican (* = less than 0.5%)

Response	Percent
Donald Trump	31
Ron DeSantis	30
Mike Pence	6
Tim Scott	5
Nikki Haley	3
Vivek Ramaswamy	3
Chris Christie	1
Asa Hutchinson	*
Larry Elder	*
Doug Burgum	0
Haven’t decided	21

When Republicans were asked whom they would pick if the choice were only between Trump and DeSantis, DeSantis is the choice of 57% and Trump is the pick of 41%. Table 6 shows how preferences divide when respondents are limited to only Trump and DeSantis. When forced to choose, those whose first choice is someone other than DeSantis or Trump pick DeSantis by 74% to Trump’s 25%. Among those who said they were undecided among the full slate (Table 5), 65% choose DeSantis and 28% choose Trump, while 7% continue to not choose.

Table 6: Choice of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents when limited to picking Trump or DeSantis

GOP 1st choice	Donald Trump	Ron DeSantis	Don’t know
DeSantis	1	98	1
Trump	98	2	0
Other candidate	25	74	1
Undecided	28	65	7

The survey asked favorability of DeSantis, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, Pence, and Trump. Among Republicans and independents who lean Republicans, the results are shown in Table 7. Trump and DeSantis have nearly equal favorability ratings, but DeSantis has a better (lower) unfavorable rating and more responses of “haven’t heard enough.” Pence is better known than DeSantis or Haley, and all candidates are viewed more favorably than unfavorably among GOP voters.

 

Table 7: Favorability ratings, among Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Candidate	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know/refused
Trump	68	30	2	1
DeSantis	67	14	20	0
Pence	52	34	13	2
Haley	38	10	47	5

Among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, Biden is the first choice of 49%, followed by 9% who prefer Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., and 3% who choose Marianne Williamson. A sizable 39% say they are undecided.

While many Democratic voters say they are undecided, Biden’s favorability rating is 83%, and his unfavorability is 15%, among all Democrats and independents who lean Democratic. Table 8 shows Biden favorability by choice of primary candidate. He is rated more favorably than unfavorably even among those supporting Kennedy or Williamson and among those who are undecided.

Table 8: Biden favorability, by first choice in primary, among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic

First choice	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
Biden	97	2	1
Kennedy or Williamson	60	39	1
Undecided	73	24	4

2024 general election

If the election were held today and DeSantis were the GOP nominee against Biden, it would be a very close race in Wisconsin, with 49% for Biden, 47% for DeSantis, and 4% declining to choose. These responses include those initially undecided who were then asked “if you had to choose.”

Biden has a larger lead over Trump in a similar hypothetical matchup, with 52% for Biden to Trump’s 43% and 4% undecided. These responses, too, include those who were initially undecided but were then asked “if you had to choose.”

Table 9 shows the breakdown of vote choices by party identification. Republicans are virtually equal in their support of either DeSantis or Trump. Independents prefer Biden over DeSantis, but Biden does even better among independents when Trump is the nominee.

Table 9: General-election vote, by party identification

(a) DeSantis vs. Biden

Party ID	Ron DeSantis	Joe Biden	Haven’t decided	Don’t know/Refused
Republican	94	2	2	1
Independent	44	52	2	3
Democrat	3	94	2	1

(b) Trump vs. Biden

Party ID	Donald Trump	Joe Biden	Haven’t decided	Don’t know/Refused
Republican	93	5	1	0
Independent	38	56	4	3
Democrat	2	97	1	1

Favorability for Wisconsin political figures

Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin, who is up for reelection in 2024, is viewed favorably by 40% and unfavorably by 37%, while 22% say they haven’t heard enough to have an opinion. In October 2022, she was seen favorably by 37% and unfavorably by 37%, with 17% saying they didn’t know enough. Table 10 shows her favorability by party identification.

Table 10: Baldwin favorability, by party identification

Party ID	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
Republican	9	75	15
Independent	37	34	29
Democrat	76	4	19

Potential Republican opponents to Baldwin have yet to declare their intention to run. The survey asked about Rep. Tom Tiffany, Madison businessman Eric Hovde, and former Milwaukee Sheriff David Clarke. The poll also asked about Rep. Mike Gallagher, who stated while polling was underway that he would not be a candidate.

None of these candidates is as well-known as Baldwin, which is not surprising at this stage of a race. Even sitting members of Congress are not well known outside their districts. Table 11 shows the favorability ratings of these four Republican figures, first among all registered voters and then among Republicans and independents who lean Republican. Clarke is the best known of the four, while Hovde is least known. Hovde ran in the GOP Senate primary in 2012. None of the four is substantially better known among Republicans (including leaners) than in the larger electorate, but they are all viewed more favorably in their party (including leaners) among those who say they have heard enough to have an opinion than they are in the comparable group in the larger electorate.

Table 11: Favorability ratings of possible GOP Senate candidates

(a) Among all registered voters

Candidate	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
Tom Tiffany	12	13	73
Mike Gallagher	15	11	71
Eric Hovde	4	8	85
David Clarke	25	23	50

(b) Among Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Candidate	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
Tom Tiffany	22	4	73
Mike Gallagher	27	2	70
Eric Hovde	7	7	84
David Clarke	48	8	42

Sen. Ron Johnson, who won reelection to a third term in November 2022, is seen favorably by 37% and unfavorably by 50%, with 12% saying they haven’t heard enough about him. In October 2022, just before the election, Johnson was rated favorably by 43% and unfavorably by 46%, with 7% not having heard enough. Table 12 shows Johnson’s current favorability by party identification.

Table 12: Johnson favorability, by party identification

Party ID	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough
Republican	82	9	8
Independent	29	53	17
Democrat	3	87	7

Policy issues

There has been modest change in views of abortion policy since the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022, as shown in Table 13. There have been a slight increase in the percent saying abortion should be legal in all cases and a similar decline in the percent saying it should be illegal in all cases. In the current survey, 66% say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, and 31% say it should be illegal in all or most cases.

 

Table 13: Abortion policy trend, June 2022-June 2023

Poll dates	Legal in all cases	Legal in most cases	Illegal in most cases	Illegal in all cases	Don’t know	Refused
6/14-20/22	27	31	24	11	5	2
8/10-15/22	30	35	25	5	3	1
6/8-13/23	32	34	25	6	1	1

Similarly, 64% say they oppose the U.S. Supreme Court decision overturning Roe, while 31% favor that decision. Table 14 shows the breakdown by party identification. A majority of Republicans favor the Court’s decision, while a majority of independents and a large majority of Democrats oppose the ruling.

Table 14: Favor or oppose overturning Roe v. Wade, by party identification

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	63	33
Independent	27	69
Democrat	5	92

The Wisconsin legislature approved and Evers signed a bill to increase state aid to counties and municipalities, which is known as shared revenue. A majority of registered voters, 70%, support increasing such aid, while 20% are opposed to an increase. Table 15 shows support by party identification, with a majority of each partisan group favoring an increase.

Table 15: Favor or oppose increasing shared revenue, by party identification

Party ID	Favor	Oppose	Don’t know
Republican	53	39	8
Independent	73	17	9
Democrat	85	6	8

Support for increasing shared revenue is high across the regions of the state, and especially so in Milwaukee County, as shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Favor or oppose increasing shared revenue, by region

Region	Favor	Oppose	Don’t know
Milwaukee County (includes city)	78	18	4
Rest of Milwaukee media market	64	27	8
Madison media market	72	16	11
Green Bay media market	71	20	7
Rest of north & west of state	71	18	10

The public is divided over giving cities and counties the ability to increase sales taxes to support local government programs. Forty-three percent favor allowing such tax increases, while 53% are opposed. As shown in Table 17, the regional differences are notable on this policy, which is directed to the City of Milwaukee and to Milwaukee County. A slight majority of respondents in Milwaukee County (as always, including the city) favor allowing a sales tax increase, but the sample size is small, 120 respondents, with a correspondingly large margin of error of +/-11.7 percentage points.

Table 17: Favor or oppose allowing sales tax increase, by region

Region	Favor	Oppose	Don’t know
Milwaukee County (includes city)	52	48	0
Rest of Milwaukee media market	36	59	4
Madison media market	56	37	5
Green Bay media market	41	57	2
Rest of north & west of state	35	60	3

More registered voters say they prefer to reduce property taxes, 50%, than say they would like to increase spending on public schools, 47%. Since 2018, the percent more concerned about taxes has moved up while those favoring school spending has declined. The full trend on this question since 2013 is shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Which is more important, reducing property taxes or increasing public school spending

Poll dates	Reducing property taxes	Increasing spending on public schools	Don’t know
3/11-13/13	49	46	4
5/6-9/13	49	46	4
4/7-10/15	40	54	5
2/25-3/1/18	33	63	3
6/13-17/18	35	59	5
8/15-19/18	32	61	5
9/12-16/18	38	57	5
10/3-7/18	37	57	6
10/24-28/18	40	55	4
1/16-20/19	39	55	6
1/8-12/20	41	55	4
2/19-23/20	38	56	5
8/3-8/21	42	52	5
4/19-24/22	46	50	4
8/10-15/22	43	52	5
9/6-11/22	41	51	5
10/3-9/22	42	52	5
10/24-11/1/22	46	48	5
6/8-13/23	50	47	3

Satisfaction with public schools in the community is shown in Table 19. About two-thirds say they are very satisfied or satisfied, while 31% are dissatisfied or very dissatisfied.

Table 19: Satisfaction with public schools in your community

Poll dates	Very satisfied	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Very dissatisfied	Don’t know
4/26-29/12	23	43	17	10	4
5/9-12/12	23	44	18	7	5
5/23-26/12	23	48	17	7	4
4/7-10/15	25	50	16	5	2
3/13-16/17	25	49	14	6	4
9/12-16/18	18	46	17	8	6
1/8-12/20	15	44	22	11	6
8/3-8/21	22	47	15	6	7
10/26-31/21	25	35	18	13	8
4/19-24/22	16	47	19	13	4
9/6-11/22	19	43	20	11	7
6/8-13/23	13	53	23	8	2

A majority, 54%, favor allowing all students statewide to use publicly funded vouchers to attend private or religious schools, while 44% are opposed to this. Support for vouchers varies by region of the state, but the Madison media market is the only area without a majority in favor, as shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Support or oppose vouchers, by region

Region	Favor	Oppose	Don’t know
Milwaukee County	59	41	0
Rest of Milwaukee media market	62	35	2
Madison media market	36	62	1
Green Bay media market	50	48	2
Rest of north & west of state	59	40	1

While a majority support vouchers, when asked if it were a choice between increasing state support for students to attend private schools and increasing support for public schools, a majority, 71%, favor increased support for public schools, while 28% prefer increasing support for attending private schools. On this choice, majorities in each region of the state prefer support for public schools, as shown in Table 21.

 

Table 21: Increase state support for private or public schools, by region

Region	Private schools	Public schools
Milwaukee County	26	74
Rest of Milwaukee media market	32	67
Madison media market	25	74
Green Bay media market	25	74
Rest of north & west of state	30	68

About half of registered voters say they are very concerned (22%) or somewhat concerned (29%) about the safety of the water supply in their community, while 31% are not too concerned and 19% are not at all concerned. Concern is highest in Milwaukee County, and lowest in the Madison media market, shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Concern about safety of water supply, by region

Region	Very concerned	Somewhat concerned	Not too concerned	Not at all concerned
Milwaukee County	26	32	34	8
Rest of Milwaukee media market	20	28	31	21
Madison media market	16	27	37	20
Green Bay media market	25	31	28	16
Rest of north & west of state	24	26	27	23

Somewhat higher percentages are concerned about long-lasting chemicals, known as PFAS, contaminating their drinking water, with 34% very concerned, 35% somewhat concerned, 19% not too concerned, and 9% not at all concerned. Concern specifically about PFAS is higher in each region, as shown in Table 23, than general concern about safety of the water supply (Table 22).

Table 23: Concern about PFAS contamination of drinking water, by region

Region	Very concerned	Somewhat concerned	Not too concerned	Not at all concerned
Milwaukee County	38	39	18	5
Rest of Milwaukee media market	34	29	26	9
Madison media market	35	34	20	7
Green Bay media market	29	43	12	10
Rest of north & west of state	34	33	17	13

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. The survey was conducted June 8-13, 2023, interviewing 913 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points. The sample includes 419 Republicans and independents who lean Republican who were asked about their preferences in the Republican presidential primary, with a margin of error of +/-6.5 percentage points. The Democratic primary preference was asked of 453 Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, with a margin of error of +/-6 percentage points.

The survey was conducted with a hybrid sample of 715 respondents selected from the Wisconsin voter registration list and 198 selected from the SSRS Opinion Panel, the latter group drawn from postal addresses across the state and invited to take part in surveys online. The interview was conducted online with 666 respondents and by telephone with a live interviewer with 247 respondents. Full details of the methodology are contained in the methodology statement at the link below.

The partisan makeup of the sample is 29% Republican, 28% Democratic, and 41% independent. Since January 2020, the long-term partisan balance has been 30% Republican and 28% Democratic, with 41% independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results, and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.