MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds very close races between President Joe Biden and either former President Donald Trump or Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in hypothetical 2024 presidential elections. Among registered voters, Biden and Trump each receive 38% of the vote, with 20% saying that they would vote for someone else and 4% that they would not vote.

In a matchup between Biden and DeSantis, DeSantis receives 42% and Biden is the choice of 41%, with 13% saying they would vote for someone else and 4% saying they would not vote.

Table 1: Biden vs. Trump trend, among registered voters
Poll dates	Donald Trump	Joe Biden	Someone else	Wouldn’t vote
11/1-10/21	35	43	18	4
1/10-21/22	33	45	18	4
3/14-24/22	38	43	16	4
9/7-14/22	36	42	19	3
11/15-22/22	34	44	19	4
1/9-20/23	40	40	17	3
3/13-22/23	38	38	20	4

 The trend in the Biden vs. Trump matchup is shown in Table 1 and the Biden vs DeSantis trend is shown in Table 2. While Biden led Trump through 2022, the two have been tied in the first two 2023 polls. DeSantis has also moved into a very close race with Biden, leading Biden in January by 7 points but holding just a 1-point edge in March. In both matchups, the relatively high percentages saying they would vote for “someone else” or would not vote indicates the potential for volatility in coming months as candidate choices become clarified. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

 

Table 2: Biden vs. DeSantis trend, among registered voters

Poll dates	Ron DeSantis	Joe Biden	Someone else	Wouldn’t vote	Web blank
1/10-21/22	34	43	17	5	0
3/14-24/22	35	39	19	5	0
9/7-14/22	38	43	15	5	0
11/15-22/22	42	42	11	4	0
1/9-20/23	45	38	13	4	0
3/13-22/23	42	41	13	4	0

The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s national survey was conducted March 13-22, 2023. The survey interviewed 1,004 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-3.8 percentage points. The sample includes 863 registered voters with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. The sample size for registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican is 381, with a margin of error of +/-6.1 percentage points. The sample size for registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic is 401, with a margin of error of +/-5.9 percentage points.

Republican primary choices

Trump leads in the presidential nomination race, with 40% among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican, while DeSantis is the choice of 35%. Former Vice President Mike Pence is supported by 5% and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley by 5%. No other potential candidate received more than 1% support, while 12% said they were undecided or did not support any of the 11 names offered in the question. Table 3 shows the full results.

Table 3: Here are some potential candidates for the Republican presidential nomination. If the primary were today, who would you vote for? among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican. *=less than 0.5%

Candidate	Percent
Donald Trump	40
Ron DeSantis	35
Mike Pence	5
Nikki Haley	5
Mike Pompeo	1
Chris Sununu	1
Kristi Noem	*
Chris Christie	*
Tim Scott	*
Asa Hutchinson	*
Glenn Youngkin	*
Undecided	10
None of these	2

When asked to choose if the choice were between only Trump and DeSantis, DeSantis is the choice of 54% and Trump is the choice of 46%. That represents a sharp tightening of the race since January, when DeSantis received 64% to Trump’s 36%. The trend is shown in Table 4.

Table 4: If it were a choice between just the two of them, who would you prefer as the Republican nominee for president in 2024: Donald Trump or Florida Governor Ron DeSantis? among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Poll dates	Donald Trump	Ron DeSantis
11/15-22/22	40	60
1/9-20/23	36	64
3/13-22/23	46	54

Among those who choose a candidate other than DeSantis or Trump in the multi-candidate question, DeSantis picks up almost three-quarters of the support when they are asked to decide between DeSantis and Trump. A handful of respondents shift away from their first choice of Trump or DeSantis in the subsequent two-candidate question. Those initially undecided or not choosing any named candidate split close to evenly when offered only Trump or DeSantis.

Table 5: Choice between Trump or DeSantis only, by first choice in multi-candidate question, among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Respondent’s multi-candidate choice	Donald Trump	Ron DeSantis
Trump	91	9
DeSantis	3	97
Other candidate	26	74
Undecided/None	43	56

DeSantis holds a slight lead among those who call themselves “Republicans,” but sees a larger advantage among independents who say they lean Republican, as shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Choice between Trump or DeSantis, by strength of Republican identification among registered voters

Strength of Republican identification	Donald Trump	Ron DeSantis
Republican	48	52
Lean Republican	40	60

DeSantis has more support than Trump among those Republicans and Republican leaners who describe themselves as very or somewhat conservative, while Trump does better among those who consider themselves moderate or liberal.

Table 7: Choice between Trump or DeSantis, by ideology among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Ideology	Donald Trump	Ron DeSantis
Very conservative	46	54
Somewhat conservative	41	59
Moderate or liberal	53	46

Trump has greater support among Republicans without a college degree while DeSantis does better among those with at least a bachelor’s degree.

Table 8: Choice between Trump or DeSantis, by education among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

College grad	Donald Trump	Ron DeSantis
Non-college grad	51	49
College grad	37	63

DeSantis is well-liked among Republicans who also hold a favorable view of Trump, making him a competitor to Trump from inside Trump’s coalition. DeSantis is less well-liked among Republicans unfavorable to Trump. Table 9 shows favorability to DeSantis by favorability to Trump.

Table 9: DeSantis favorability, by Trump favorability among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Trump favorability	Favorable opinion of DeSantis	Unfavorable opinion of DeSantis	Haven’t heard enough
Favorable opinion	80	8	12
Unfavorable opinion	51	32	17

Despite leading Trump among those who prefer a candidate other than Trump or DeSantis, DeSantis has negative favorability among those respondents, and it is notably less favorable than among those who make Trump their top pick in the multi-candidate choice question. DeSantis has a quite favorable rating among those for whom Trump is their first choice for the presidential nomination.

Table 10: DeSantis favorability, by multi-candidate first choice among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Multi-candidate 1st choice	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Trump	71	10	19
DeSantis	93	5	2
Other candidate	36	42	23
Undecided/None	30	35	35

Favorability toward potential GOP candidates

For Republican voters, Trump is nearly universally known and Pence and DeSantis are fairly well-known. Most other potential Republican candidates are far less familiar to Republican voters. Table 11 shows the favorable, unfavorable, and haven’t-heard-enough responses to eight potential candidates.

 

Table 11: Favorability ratings of potential Republican candidates, among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Name	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Trump	66	31	2
Pence	48	41	11
DeSantis	69	15	15
Pompeo	31	24	45
Haley	40	13	47
Scott	30	7	63
Noem	26	9	64
Youngkin	23	11	66

Trump’s favorability rating among Republicans and independents who lean Republican has declined since July 2022, when he peaked in the Marquette survey at 76%, to 66%, despite a 70% favorable rating in January. The full trend is shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Trump favorability trend, among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
11/1-10/21	70	29	1
1/10-21/22	71	28	1
3/14-24/22	75	23	1
5/9-19/22	75	22	2
7/5-12/22	76	22	2
9/7-14/22	74	25	1
11/15-22/22	67	32	1
1/9-20/23	70	28	2
3/13-22/23	66	31	2

DeSantis’s favorable ratings also dipped slightly in March after steadily rising in the previous year of polling, as shown in Table 13.

 

Table 13: DeSantis favorability trend, among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
1/10-21/22	57	9	34
3/14-24/22	57	7	35
5/9-19/22	58	15	27
7/5-12/22	62	9	29
9/7-14/22	65	10	25
11/15-22/22	68	10	22
1/9-20/23	71	10	19
3/13-22/23	69	15	15

Favorability to governors

For comparison with widely mentioned possible presidential candidates, the survey also asked about five Republican and five Democratic governors. These figures are all prominent in their own states but are not well-known nationally. For these ratings, each was identified as a governor and the state was mentioned, but not the governor’s party. The potential presidential candidates, discussed above, were not identified by current or past office. (Youngkin was included in both lists. Identifying him as governor of Virginia in the governors’ list only slightly reduced the percentage saying they hadn’t heard enough about him.)

Table 14 shows the favorability ratings for five Republican governors among Republicans and independents who lean Republican.

Table 14: Favorability ratings of Republican governors, among registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican

Name	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Greg Abbott, Texas	59	9	32
Brian Kemp, Georgia	28	12	60
Glenn Youngkin, Virginia	30	9	61
Mike DeWine, Ohio	20	10	69
Chris Sununu, New Hampshire	13	12	75

Favorability ratings for five Democratic governors, among Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, are shown in Table 15.

 

Table 15: Favorability ratings of Democratic governors, among registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic

Name	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Gavin Newsom, California	48	16	35
Gretchen Whitmer, Michigan	43	5	52
Josh Shapiro, Pennsylvania	22	7	72
Wes Moore, Maryland	12	6	82
Jared Polis, Colorado	13	5	83

Presidential approval

Approval of Biden’s handling of his job as president declined in March to 39%, with 61% disapproving. In January, 43% approved and 56% disapproved. Biden’s approval in March is the second-lowest of his presidency in the Marquette Law School Poll. The full trend for Biden approval in Marquette Law School Poll national surveys is shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Biden job approval, among all adults

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
7/16-26/21	58	42
9/7-16/21	48	52
11/1-10/21	49	51
1/10-21/22	46	53
3/14-24/22	44	55
5/9-19/22	42	57
7/5-12/22	36	64
9/7-14/22	45	55
11/15-22/22	45	55
1/9-20/23	43	56
3/13-22/23	39	61

Biden’s favorability ratings among all adults also closely mirrors his approval rating and also declined in March, as shown in Table 17.

 

Table 17: Biden favorability rating, among all adults

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
11/1-10/21	45	49	6
1/10-21/22	45	51	4
3/14-24/22	44	53	3
5/9-19/22	40	55	4
7/5-12/22	34	62	4
9/7-14/22	43	54	3
11/15-22/22	43	53	3
1/9-20/23	41	54	4
3/13-22/23	37	59	4

As shown in Table 18, Vice President Kamala Harris’s favorability is a bit below that of Biden, which is common for vice presidents, as is her higher “haven’t heard enough” percentage.

Table 18: Harris favorability rating, among all adults

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
11/1-10/21	38	46	16
1/10-21/22	37	49	14
9/7-14/22	36	52	13
11/15-22/22	34	50	16
1/9-20/23	32	54	13
3/13-22/23	31	54	16

Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg was mentioned frequently in recent coverage of a train derailment and chemical spill in Ohio. His favorable rating has barely changed since September, although his unfavorable ratings have increased since November and fewer people say they lack an opinion of him, as shown in Table 19.

Table 19: Buttigieg favorability rating, among all adults

Poll dates	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
1/10-21/22	28	27	45
9/7-14/22	26	33	42
11/15-22/22	26	29	45
1/9-20/23	25	32	43
3/13-22/23	26	36	38

The freight train derailment and hazardous chemical spill in East Palestine, Ohio, were widely known, with 62% saying they had heard a lot about this, 25% saying they had heard a little, and 13% having heard nothing at all.

Those who heard a lot were more unfavorable to Buttigieg than those who heard less, although there was no difference on the favorable side of the ratings by amount heard concerning the derailment, as shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Buttigieg favorability rating by amount heard about train derailment, among all adults

Heard about derailment	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
A lot	29	41	30
A little	28	32	40
Nothing at all	7	25	69

Abortion issues

As stated in a release yesterday concerning the same national survey but focusing on public opinion about the Supreme Court, a majority, 67%, of all those polled oppose the Court’s 2022 ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, which overturned abortion rights established in Roe v. Wade in 1973, while 33% favor the Dobbs decision. Opposition to the Dobbs decision has remained stable since November 2022, as shown in Table 21.

Table 21: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision? among all adults

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
11/15-22/22	33	66
1/9-20/23	35	64
3/13-22/23	33	67

That is the only table repeated from yesterday’s release, given the relationship of its topic with the topics of the next two tables.

Opinion about abortion policy has fluctuated only slightly since May 2022, as shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases? among all adults

Poll dates	Legal in all cases	Legal in most cases	Illegal in most cases	Illegal in all cases
5/9-19/22	29	38	24	8
7/5-12/22	28	36	27	8
9/7-14/22	31	37	26	6
11/15-22/22	29	36	26	9
1/9-20/23	26	38	28	8
3/13-22/23	28	39	27	6

As states have adopted widely varying laws concerning abortion following the Dobbs ruling, public opinion has strongly favored allowing abortion in cases of rape or incest, with 88% in favor and 11% saying abortion should not be allowed in these circumstances. In September 2022, 90% said abortion should be allowed and 10% said it should not be in this circumstance.

A large majority, 74%, oppose states being able to make it illegal for a woman to get and fill prescriptions for medication to induce an abortion from out of state providers, while 26% favor states having that ability.

The public is substantially opposed to restrictions on travel to another state to obtain a legal abortion, with 81% saying states should not be able to make such travel illegal and 19% saying states should be able to ban out-of-state travel for abortions.

Opinion is evenly divided on a proposal to pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy. Table 23 shows opinion on this, with partisan differences. Republicans and Democrats are virtual mirror images on this question, while independents are more evenly divided.

Table 23: Pass a national law banning abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy, among all adults

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Total	49	51
Republican	74	26
Independent	46	53
Democrat	25	75

Vouchers for private schools

Several states recently have passed or are considering proposals to provide state funding for vouchers to pay for K-12 students to attend private or religious schools of their choice instead of public schools. Opinion is closely divided on this among adults nationally, with substantial partisan differences as shown in Table 24.

Table 24: Provide state funding for vouchers to pay for tuition for K-12 students to attend private or religious schools of their choice instead of public schools, among all adults

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Total	53	47
Republican	62	38
Independent	60	37
Democrat	42	58

Support for such vouchers is stronger among those with school-age children in the home than those without children, shown in Table 25.

Table 25: Provide state funding for vouchers to pay for tuition for K-12 students to attend private or religious schools of their choice instead of public schools, by school-age children in home, among all adults

School-age children?	Favor funding	Oppose
Kids at home	63	37
No kids at home	49	51

Those who say they are born-again Protestants or are Roman Catholics are more supportive of school vouchers than are those of other faiths or those without a religious identification, as shown in Table 26.

Table 26: Provide state funding for vouchers to pay for tuition for K-12 students to attend private or religious schools of their choice instead of public schools by religious identification, among all adults

Religion	Favor	Oppose
Born-again Protestant	67	33
Mainline Protestant	49	51
Roman Catholic	67	33
No religion	36	63
Other religion	48	51

Views of the police

Forty-four percent of respondents in this national poll say they have a great deal or quite a lot of confidence in the police, 33% have some confidence, and 23% have little or no confidence. Confidence is higher among white respondents and lower among Hispanic and mixed-race people and is especially low among Black respondents, as shown in Table 27.

Table 27: The police: here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? by race, among all adults

Race and ethnicity	Great deal/quite a lot	Some	Very little/None
White	52	31	17
Black	17	39	44
Hispanic	33	38	28
Other/Multiple	37	33	29

A majority, 57%, say that recent killings of Black Americans by the police is part of a larger pattern of police treatment of Black people, while 43% say these are isolated incidents. Table 28 shows how these views differ by race and ethnicity of respondents.

Table 28: Do you think recent killings of Black Americans by police are isolated incidents or part of a larger pattern in the police’s treatment of Black Americans? by race, among all adults

Race and ethnicity	Isolated incidents	Part of a larger pattern
White	54	46
Black	8	90
Hispanic	35	65
Other/Multiple	21	79

Aid to Ukraine

Opinion on U.S. military aid to Ukraine has shown partisan divisions in recent months. In this March poll, 34% say the U.S. is providing too much support to Ukraine, 24% say the U.S. is not giving enough support, and 41% say the U.S. is giving the right amount of aid. The percentage saying “too much support” increased by 5 percentage points from January, as shown in Table 29.

Table 29: When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine?, among all adults

Poll dates	Too much support	Not enough support	About the right amount of support
11/15-22/22	32	23	45
1/9-20/23	29	24	46
3/13-22/23	34	24	41

Table 30 shows partisan differences on aid to Ukraine in the March poll. Just over half of Republicans, 52%, say the U.S. is providing too much aid, while 36% of Independents and 16% of Democrats agree with that view.

Table 30: When it comes to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, do you think the United States is providing too much support to Ukraine, not enough support to Ukraine, or about the right amount of support to Ukraine?, among all adults

Party ID	Too much support	Not enough support	About the right amount of support
Total	34	24	41
Republican	52	15	33
Independent	36	18	45
Democrat	16	36	48

On the more general question of U.S. involvement in world affairs, 55% say it is better for the country to take an active part, while 45% say the U.S. should stay out of world affairs. Independents are especially skeptical of U.S. involvement in the world, with 56% saying we should stay out and a minority, 41%, saying we should take an active part. Republicans are evenly split on international involvement, and Democrats are substantially in favor of a U.S. role in the world, as shown in Table 31.

Table 31: Do you think it will be better for the future of the country if we take an active part in world affairs, or if we stay out of world affairs?, among all adults

Party ID	Take an active part in world affairs	Stay out of world affairs
Total	55	45
Republican	48	52
Independent	41	56
Democrat	67	33

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s national Supreme Court survey was conducted March 13-22, 2023. The survey interviewed 1,004 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-3.8 percentage points. The sample includes 863 registered voters with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. The sample size for registered Republicans and independents who lean Republican is 381, with a margin of error of +/-6.1 percentage points. The sample size for registered Democrats and independents who lean Democratic is 401, with a margin of error of +/-5.9 percentage points.

Certain other data from this survey (those about public views of the Supreme Court) were released yesterday, March 29, 2023, and can be found on the Marquette Law School Poll website.

Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available at https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/results-and-data/.

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds that 44% of adults approve of the job the U.S. Supreme Court is doing, while 56% disapprove. This is a slight decline from January, when 47% approved and 53% disapproved. Approval of the Court’s work hit a low of 38% in July 2022 and had risen gradually in every-other-month polling until this new poll. In all of these surveys since the middle of last year, approval has remained well below the 60% rate from July 2021.

The trend in approval since 2020 is shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1 (right): Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
9/8-15/20	66	33
7/16-26/21	60	39
9/7-16/21	49	50
11/1-10/21	54	46
1/10-21/22	52	46
3/14-24/22	54	45
5/9-19/22	44	55
7/5-12/22	38	61
9/7-14/22	40	60
11/15-22/22	44	56
1/9-20/23	47	53
3/13-22/23	44	56

The latest Marquette Law School Poll’s national Supreme Court survey was conducted March 13-22, 2023. The survey interviewed 1,004 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-3.8 percentage points.

Partisan differences in approval of the Court are quite pronounced in the current poll, in contrast to minimal such differences as recently as July 2021. Table 2 shows approval by partisanship then and now.

Table 2: Overall, how much do you approve or disapprove of the way the U.S. Supreme Court is handling its job?, by party identification

(a) March 2023

Party ID	Approve	Disapprove
Republican	66	34
Independent	39	61
Democrat	28	72

(b) July 2021

Party ID	Approve	Disapprove
Republican	57	42
Independent	61	37
Democrat	59	40

In March, approval among Democrats was 7 percentage points lower than in January, and it was also 3 points lower among independents in January. Approval among Republicans was 1 point lower than in that early 2023 poll.

Shifts in approval have been substantial since 2020. Table 3 shows approval by party in each of the Marquette polls since September 2020. A sharp increase in party polarization began in September 2021 before decreasing somewhat through March 2022. Polarization then increased in May 2022, following the leak of the draft opinion in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, suggesting that the Court would overturn the Roe v. Wade decision on abortion rights. Partisan differences further intensified in July 2022, following the Court’s ruling in Dobbs overturning Roe. In the subsequent months, approvals among independents and Democrats had moved upward from their low points, until this latest poll, while Republican approval has fluctuated over the past year between 64% and 71%.

Table 3: Approval of the Court, by party identification, Sept. 2020-Jan. 2023

Poll dates	Republican	Independent	Democrat
9/8-15/20	80	64	57
7/16-26/21	57	61	59
9/7-16/21	61	51	37
11/1-10/21	61	53	49
1/10-21/22	60	52	45
3/14-24/22	64	51	52
5/9-19/22	71	38	28
7/5-12/22	67	39	15
9/7-14/22	65	34	24
11/15-22/22	70	40	28
1/9-20/23	67	42	35
3/13-22/23	66	39	28

Awareness of pending cases

Unlike Congress or the president, the Supreme Court is not constantly in the news. Rather, coverage is concentrated around the announcement of decisions and, to some extent, the argument of cases or the appointment of justices. This fluctuating pattern of news means the public may not hear about most cases before they are decided.

In March, 17% said they had heard or read a lot about “a Supreme Court case concerning the use of race in college admissions,” 50% had heard a little, and 32% had heard nothing at all. The cases, Students for Fair Admissions Inc. v. President and Fellows of Harvard College and Students for Fair Admissions v. University of North Carolina were argued Oct. 31. In the national November 2022 Marquette Law School Poll, conducted shortly after oral arguments, 20% had heard a lot, 45% had heard a little, and 34% had heard nothing about the cases.

The public was more aware of a set of cases concerning student loan forgiveness, argued February 28, 2023, Biden v. Nebraska and Department of Education v. Brown. Fifty percent said they had heard a lot about this, 41% a little, and 10% had heard nothing at all.

Awareness was lower about a pair of cases concerning social media companies, argued Feb. 21-22, Gonzalez v. Google LLC and Twitter v. Taamneh. Nine percent said they had heard a lot, 51% a little, and 40% had heard nothing.

Views of the justices

The justices of the U.S. Supreme Court are not generally well known among the public, with a majority of the public saying they don’t know enough to give a favorable or unfavorable opinion about most justices. Justice Clarence Thomas is the most widely known and Justice Elena Kagan the least well known, as shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Some justices of the Supreme Court are better known than others. For each of these names, have you never heard of them, heard of them but don’t know enough to have an opinion of them, have a favorable opinion or have an unfavorable opinion?

Justice	Favorable	Unfavorable	Unable to rate
Samuel Alito	15	16	69
Amy Coney Barrett	22	27	51
Neil Gorsuch	18	15	67
Ketanji Brown Jackson	26	15	59
Elena Kagan	17	10	73
Brett Kavanaugh	25	34	41
John Roberts	25	15	60
Sonia Sotomayor	34	15	52
Clarence Thomas	29	32	38

While knowledge about the justices is quite limited, partisans hold predictably different views of the justices. Republicans give net favorable ratings to justices appointed by Republican presidents and net unfavorable ratings to those appointed by Democratic presidents. Democrats do the opposite, with the exception of the case of Chief Justice John Roberts, who has a net favorable rating across all partisan groups. Table 5 shows the net approval-minus-disapproval by party identification.

 

Table 5: Net favorable-minus-unfavorable rating, by party identification

Justice	Republican	Independent	Democrat
Alito	16	-3	-19
Barrett	37	-12	-40
Gorsuch	24	2	-18
Jackson	-16	6	46
Kagan	-6	4	25
Kavanaugh	46	-16	-55
Roberts	19	6	6
Sotomayor	-9	15	52
Thomas	46	-4	-53

Pending cases

The public is skeptical of the permissibility of the use of race in admission to college programs, with 33% in favor of a decision that would ban the use of race and 17% opposed. The case is not yet on the top of the mind of most respondents, however, with 50% saying they haven’t heard anything about such a case or haven’t heard enough to have an opinion.

Polling on this topic since September 2021 has seen consistent opposition to the use of race in admissions. Table 6 (a) shows views including those who have not heard enough about the issue, and Table 6 (b) shows the percentages for only those with an opinion.

Table 6: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Rule that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit.

(a) Among all respondents

Poll dates	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor such a ruling	Oppose
9/7-16/21	33	53	13
3/14-24/22	33	49	17
9/7-14/22	50	37	13
11/15-22/22	42	41	16
1/9-20/23	49	35	16
3/13-22/23	50	33	17

(b) Among those with an opinion

Poll dates	Favor such a ruling	Oppose
9/7-16/21	81	19
3/14-24/22	75	25
9/7-14/22	74	26
11/15-22/22	72	28
1/9-20/23	68	32
3/13-22/23	66	34

There are substantial partisan differences on this issue as shown in Table 7, with majorities of Republicans and independents in favor of banning the use of race while a majority of Democrats are opposed, among those with an opinion about the case.

Table 7: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Rule that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit. By party identification.

(a) Among all respondents

Party ID	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor such a ruling	Oppose
Republican	46	45	8
Independent	52	35	13
Democrat	53	17	30

(b) Among those with an opinion

Party ID	Favor such a ruling	Oppose
Republican	84	16
Independent	72	28
Democrat	37	63

Another case, argued this past December, 303 Creative LLC v. Elenis, poses the question whether the religious beliefs or free speech rights of business owners can justify refusing to provide some services to LGBTQ customers. A plurality of those with an opinion, 33%, oppose a decision allowing such a business to refuse services, while 25% favor such a ruling. As with college admissions, a substantial number, here 42%, have not heard of this case or have not heard enough to have an opinion. The trend in opinion on this question is shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion? Decide that a business owner’s religious beliefs or free speech rights can justify refusing some services to gay people.

(a) Among all respondents

Poll dates	Heard nothing/not enough	Favor such a ruling	Oppose
3/14-24/22	29	28	43
9/7-14/22	44	21	35
11/15-22/22	35	25	40
1/9-20/23	43	24	33
3/13-22/23	42	25	33

(b) Among those with an opinion

Poll dates	Heard of case and favor such a ruling	Heard of and oppose
3/14-24/22	39	61
9/7-14/22	37	63
11/15-22/22	39	61
1/9-20/23	43	57
3/13-22/23	43	57

Prior decisions

In the current survey, 33% favor the June 2022 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, overturning Roe v. Wade, while 67% oppose that ruling. The November 2022 through March 2023 responses are shown in Table 9.

Table 9: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
11/15-22/22	33	66
1/9-20/23	35	64
3/13-22/23	33	67

Partisan differences are very large concerning the Dobbs decision, as shown in Table 10 for the March survey, with a majority of Republicans favoring the Dobbs decision and majorities of independents and Democrats opposed.

Table 10: In 2022, the Supreme Court overturned Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states. How much do you favor or oppose this decision? by party identification, March 2023

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	59	41
Independent	28	71
Democrat	12	88

Looking back to earlier decisions, a substantial majority—65%—favor the Court’s 2015 ruling establishing a right to same-sex marriage, while 35% are opposed. This trend is shown in Table 11.

 

Table 11: In 2015 the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
5/9-19/22	69	31
7/5-12/22	66	34
9/7-14/22	71	29
11/15-22/22	72	28
1/9-20/23	67	33
3/13-22/23	65	35

Partisan differences on the same-sex marriage decision are shown in Table 12.

Table 12: In 2015 the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution guarantees a right to same-sex marriage. How much do you favor or oppose this decision? by party identification, March 2023

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	41	59
Independent	70	30
Democrat	82	18

A large majority of the public favors the 2020 Supreme Court ruling that federal civil rights law protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination. The trend for this question is shown in Table 13.

Table 13: In 2020, the Supreme Court ruled that a federal civil rights law protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
5/9-19/22	83	16
7/5-12/22	84	16
9/7-14/22	87	12
11/15-22/22	83	17
3/13-22/23	80	20

While a large majority favor anti-discrimination laws in the workplace, a majority, 70%, say transgender athletes should be required to compete on teams that match the sex they were assigned at birth, not the gender they identify with, while 30% oppose such a requirement.

There are substantial differences, by age, in opinion about transgender athletic competition, although a majority in all age groups favor restricting such competition, as shown in Table 14.

 

Table 14: Require that transgender athletes compete on teams that match the sex they were assigned at birth, not the gender they identify with

Age	Favor	Oppose
18-29	53	47
30-44	69	31
45-59	75	25
60+	78	21

Confidence in the Court and other institutions

Confidence in the Court has declined since 2019, when 37% said they had a great deal or quite a lot of confidence. In this poll, 28% have similar confidence. Those with very little or no confidence increased from 20% in September 2019 to 32% in March 2023. The full trend is shown in Table 15.

Table 15: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one? The U.S. Supreme Court.

Poll dates	Great deal/quite a lot	Some	Very little/None
9/3-13/19	37	42	20
9/8-15/20	39	45	16
7/5-12/22	28	28	44
9/7-14/22	30	34	36
11/15-22/22	30	36	34
1/9-20/23	31	38	31
3/13-22/23	28	40	32

Confidence in a number of institutions is shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Here is a list of institutions in American society. How much confidence do you have in each one?

Institution	Great deal/quite a lot	Some	Very little/None
The police	44	33	23
The FBI	34	35	31
The courts in your community	32	44	24
The US Supreme Court	28	40	32
The presidency	26	34	40
Congress	15	43	42

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted March 13-22, 2023, interviewing 1,004 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.8 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available at the Marquette Law Poll website. Some items from this survey are held for later release.

Wording of questions about future and past Supreme Court decisions: These items do not attempt to exactly frame the particular issues in specific cases but rather address the topic in more general terms.

The wording of questions about cases before the Court in the October 2022 Term include:

Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion?

The wording of questions about previous decisions include:

Opinion of Dobbs decision, striking down Roe v. Wade

Opinion of same-sex marriage decision:

Opinion of anti-discrimination law for gay and transgender workers

In 2020 the Supreme Court ruled that a federal civil rights law protects gay and transgender workers from workplace discrimination. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?