New Marquette Law School Poll finds Biden holding a steady lead over Trump in Wisconsin

MILWAUKEE — A new Marquette Law School poll of Wisconsin likely voters finds support in the presidential race little changed since June, with Joe Biden favored by 49 percent and President Donald Trump by 44 percent. Six percent of voters say they will vote for neither, don’t know who they will vote for, or don’t want to give an opinion.

In June, among likely voters, Biden was supported by 50 percent and Trump by 44 percent, with 6 percent choosing neither. Biden had 49 percent in May and Trump 45 percent.

The new poll also found that, as COVID-19 cases have gone up in the state, the percent of voters who are concerned personally has increased. With strong partisan differences, voters overall favor requiring masks be worn in public, but opinion is almost evenly decided on whether children should go to school in person at the start of the new school year.

The poll was conducted Aug. 4-9, 2020. The sample included 801 registered voters in Wisconsin who were interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. There are 675 likely voters included in the poll, with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points.

There is little difference in polling among registered voters, with Biden receiving 48 percent and Trump receiving 42 percent. In June, among all registered voters, Biden was supported by 49 percent and Trump by 41 percent.

Enthusiasm for voting

Democrats and Republicans are almost equally likely to say they are certain to vote in November, with independents somewhat less so. About 87 percent of both Democrats and Republicans say they are certain to vote, while independents are 60 percent are certain to vote.

Respondents were also asked how enthusiastic they are about voting in November’s election. Among Democrats, 65 percent are very enthusiastic and 64 percent of Republicans are equally enthusiastic. Thirty-seven percent of independents say they are very enthusiastic about voting this fall.

As for attention to politics and public affairs, 72 percent of Democrats say they follow what’s going on in politics most of the time, as do 71 percent of Republicans and 45 percent of independents.

There are sharp partisan differences in sources of national news, as shown in Table 1. Republicans are much more likely to rely on Fox News than are Democrats, who are more likely to get national news from CNN or MSNBC. Despite these differences, between one-fifth and about one-third of each partisan group still relies on broadcast network evening news.

Voting absentee by mail

Among all registered voters, 35 percent say they plan to vote absentee by mail in November, while 46 percent say they will vote in-person on election day and 12 percent say they will vote early in-person. In May, 43 percent said they would vote absentee, 39 percent in person on election day, and 11 percent would vote early.

There are substantial partisan differences in plans to vote by mail or in-person as shown in Table 2a, with Democrats far more likely to vote by mail than Republicans, and Republicans far more likely to vote in-person on election day. Table 2b shows vote choice by type of ballot, reflecting the partisan differences in ballot choice.

Approval of Evers and coronavirus measures

In August, 57 percent approve of Gov. Tony Evers’ handling of his job and 37 percent disapprove. In June, 54 percent approved and 38 percent disapproved. The trend in overall approval of Evers in 2020 is shown in Table 3.

Sixty-nine percent agree that masks should be required in all public places, while 29 percent disagree. There are partisan and regional differences in views of masks as shown in Tables 5 and 6.

Forty-five percent say they feel comfortable letting students return to school in the fall and 48 percent say they are uncomfortable with reopening schools. Among those with school age children at home, 53 percent are comfortable and 45 percent are uncomfortable.

Comfort with reopening schools by party and region is shown in Tables 7 and 8.

Forty percent agree that we should keep schools and businesses open even if coronavirus cases rise, while 54 percent disagree with this. Among those with school age children, 44 percent agree and 51 percent disagree that schools and businesses should stay open if cases increase. Partisan and regional differences on this question are shown in Table 9 and 10.

By a three-to-one margin, those comfortable returning students to school also think schools and businesses should stay open even if COVID-19 cases rise. Conversely, almost 90 percent of those who are uncomfortable reopening schools also oppose keeping schools and businesses open in the face of rising numbers of cases, as shown in Table 11.

Trump approval

In August, Trump’s overall job approval declined to 44 percent, with 54 percent disapproving. In June, 45 percent approved and 51 percent disapproved. His job approval since taking office is shown in Table 12. Trump’s approval was last this low in January 2019 when approval was 44 percent and disapproval was 52 percent.

Approval of Trump’s handling of specific issues varies considerably, despite the narrow range of his overall approval ratings during his presidency.

Approval is lowest for Trump’s handling of protests over the death of George Floyd in police custody. Thirty-two percent approve of Trump’s handing of the protests and 58 percent disapprove. In June, 30 percent approved and 58 percent disapproved.

Approval of Trump’s handing of the coronavirus outbreak is 40 percent and disapproval is 58 percent, with 2 percent who don’t know. In June, 44 percent approved and 52 percent disapproved.

The trend in approval of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak is shown in Table 13.

Trump receives the strongest support for his handling of the economy, with 51 percent approval and 46 percent disapproval, and 3 percent who don’t know. In June, 50 percent approved and 46 percent disapproved. The full trend during 2020 is shown in Table 14.

Views of the candidates

Thirty-six percent say Trump generally shows good judgment, while 61 percent say he does not. Forty-five percent say Biden generally shows good judgment and 46 percent say he does not.

Trump is viewed favorably by 42 percent and unfavorably by 55 percent, while Biden is seen favorably by 43 percent and unfavorably by 48 percent. The trends in favorability for each candidate are shown in Tables 15 and 16.

Vote by party ID in June and August

Partisan loyalty has varied from May to June and August among likely voters, as shown in Tables 17-19. Democratic and Republican unity has fluctuated but remained near 90 percent or above for both parties. Independents have narrowly divided preferences, favoring Biden in June and August, but with a substantial percentage not choosing either major party candidate.

Vote by region

Regional support for each candidate has been relatively stable between June and August, as shown in Tables 20 and 21. Biden holds leads in the City of Milwaukee and the Madison media market. Trump leads in the Milwaukee area outside the city. The race is very close in the Green Bay area and in the rest of the state, with Trump regaining the lead in the north and west of the state in August.

Table 22 shows vote by region combining the last three polls, from May through August in order to increase the sample size in each region and average over month-to-month variation.

Views of protests

Forty-eight percent of Wisconsin registered voters approve of the mass protests since the death of George Floyd, while 48 percent disapprove. That is a drop in approval from June, when 61 percent approved and 36 percent disapproved.

In August, 48 percent said the protests had been mostly peaceful, while 41 percent said they had been mostly violent. This question was not asked in June.

Forty-nine percent had a favorable view of the Black Lives Matter movement and 37 percent had an unfavorable view. In June, 59 percent had a favorable and 27 percent an unfavorable view of the movement.

Police are viewed favorably by 76 percent and unfavorably by 13 percent. In June, 72 percent had a favorable and 18 percent had an unfavorable view of the police.

Coronavirus epidemic and impact

The percentage of those very worried about personal risk from COVID-19 increased by eight points in August, after declining each previous month since March. Twenty-seven percent say they are very worried and 36 percent are somewhat worried, while 17 percent are not very worried and 19 percent say they are not at all worried. The full trend since March is shown in Table 26.

Economic impact of the coronavirus

Reported job loss held steady in August, with 14 percent saying they have lost a job. Twenty-nine percent say someone in their family, other than themselves, has suffered a job loss. Table 27 shows the trend in job loss.

Work hours have been reduced for 23 percent of respondents. Forty-one percent say some other family member has had work hours reduced. These results are little changed from June. The full trend is shown in Table 28.

Views of the direction of the economy have turned sharply down since February, with many more people saying the economy has gotten worse over the past year.

Respondents have a positive outlook for the economy over the next 12 months, though a bit less so in August than in June. Tables 29 and 30 show the recent trends in these measures.

While many respondents have lost jobs or had working hours cut, there has not been a surge in reports of financial distress. However, those who have lost jobs or had family members lose jobs report substantially higher levels of financial insecurity as shown in Tables 31 and 32.

Black respondents have been especially hard hit by the economic consequences of the pandemic. Combining all polls from March through August, Tables 33 and 34 shows job loss and work hours reduced by race.

Issues

While the coronavirus epidemic, the economy and Black Lives Matter protests have occupied the headlines, a number of other issues remain important. Table 35 shows these issues, all posed as statements of possible policies the respondent could agree or disagree with.

Defunding the police draws the highest opposition, 17 percent in favor and 78 percent opposed, while requiring all insurance to cover preexisting conditions has the highest support, 92 percent to 5 percent. Three in four registered voters also support 12 weeks of paid maternity leave and a path to citizenship for those undocumented immigrants brought to the US as children.

The Green New Deal is supported by 37 percent and opposed by 32 percent, but almost a third, 31 percent, say they don’t have an opinion of it.

A majority oppose repealing the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, and a similar majority oppose limiting legal immigration.

Providing tax-funded vouchers for private and religious schools is supported by 41 percent and opposed by 49 percent.

More agree that we should raise tariffs on imports, 49 percent, than disagree, 35 percent, though a substantial 16 percent say they don’t know, despite the frequent debates over tariffs during the current administration.

Views of state officials

Tables 36-38 presents the recent favorability ratings of elected officials in Wisconsin and the percentage of respondents who haven’t heard enough or say they don’t know.

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 801 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone from Aug. 4-9, 2020. The margin of error is +/-3.9 percentage points for the full sample. There are 675 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points, in the weighted sample reported in all results, and 694 unweighted.

The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 45 percent Republican, 45 percent Democratic, and 9 percent independent. The partisan makeup of the sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 30 percent Republican, 29 percent Democratic, and 40 percent independent.

Since January 2017, the long-term partisan balance, including those who lean to a party, in the Marquette poll has been 45 percent Republican and 45 percent Democratic, with 9 percent independent. Partisanship exuding those who lean has been 30 percent Republican and 29 percent Democratic, with 40 percent independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.

New Marquette Law School Poll finds Biden lead over Trump increasing, high support for Black Lives Matter and declining concern about COVID-19

[Click here to download a pdf file of the press release.]

MILWAUKEE — A new Marquette Law School Poll of Wisconsin registered voters finds Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden with 49 percent support and Republican incumbent Donald Trump with 41 percent. Ten percent say that they would vote for neither, don’t know how they would vote or declined to say.

In May, Biden was supported by 46 percent of voters and Trump by 43 percent, with 10 percent not choosing either.

The poll was conducted June 14-18, 2020. The sample included 805 registered voters in Wisconsin, who were interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points.

The trend in the presidential vote since January is shown in Table 1. The June poll is the largest Biden margin in Marquette polls in 2020. The closest matchup was in February, with Biden and Trump tied at 46 percent.

In the new poll, Trump’s overall job approval declined to 45 percent, with 51 percent disapproval, which compares to May when 47 percent approved and 49 percent disapproved. His job approval during 2020 is shown in Table 2. Trump’s approval was last this low in August 2019, when approval was 45 percent and disapproval was 53 percent.

Approval of Trump’s handling of specific issues varies considerably, even though his overall approval has stayed in a narrow 41 to 48 percent range during his presidency.

Approval is lowest for Trump’s handling of protests over the death of George Floyd in police custody. Thirty percent approve of Trump’s handing of the protests, and 58 percent disapprove. Eleven percent say they don’t know.

Approval of his handling of the coronavirus outbreak is 44 percent, and disapproval is 52 percent, with 3 percent who don’t know. In May, 44 percent approved and 51 percent disapproved.

Trump receives the strongest support for his handling of the economy, with 50 percent approval, 46 percent disapproval and 3 percent who don’t know. In May, 54 percent approved and 40 percent disapproved of his economic policies.

Support for Trump declined among Republicans in June, while opposition grew among independents. Support slightly increased among independents who lean Republican, and slightly decreased among independents who lean Democratic and Democrats, as shown in Tables 3 and 4.

In May, Trump led Biden among Republicans 93 percent to 1 percent. In June, his lead over Biden was 83 percent to 8 percent among Republicans.

Independents had preferred Trump over Biden in May by 34 percent to 27 percent. That preference reversed in June, with Biden supported by 38 percent to Trump’s 30 percent.

Similar shifts, since May, in Trump’s job approval by party identification are shown in Tables 5 and 6, where approval slipped among Republicans and reversed among independents. In May, 50 percent of independents said that they approved of Trump’s job performance and 36 percent disapproved. In June, that shifted to 36 percent approval and 57 percent disapproval. Approval among Democrats and independents who lean Democrat, both already very low, declined slightly. Only independents who lean Republican saw slight increases in approval.

Views of the candidates

Thirty-nine percent say “cares about people like me” describes Trump, while 57 percent say this does not describe Trump. Forty-six percent say this phrase describes Biden, and 42 percent say it does not describe him.

Trump is viewed favorably by 42 percent and unfavorably by 54 percent of respondents, while Biden is seen favorably by 44 percent and unfavorably by 46 percent. The trends in favorability for each candidate are shown in Tables 9 and 10.

Views on race and police

The death of George Floyd in police custody in Minneapolis sparked nationwide protests and a renewed debate over police tactics and policy. In Wisconsin, views of these issues vary, and there are substantial differences in perception by race.

Sixty-one percent approve of the mass protests since the death of George Floyd, while 36 percent disapprove. Among Black respondents, 74 percent approve and 24 percent disapprove. Eighty-one percent of Hispanic respondents approve and 13 percent disapprove, while 59 percent of white respondents approve and 38 percent disapprove of the protests.

Police are viewed favorably by 72 percent and unfavorably by 18 percent. The Black Lives Matter movement is seen favorably by 59 percent and unfavorably by 27 percent.

There is a large gap in the perceptions of the police between white and Black Wisconsinites. Among white respondents, 76 percent have a favorable view of the police, and 15 percent have an unfavorable view. In sharp contrast, among Black respondents, the police are viewed favorably by 39 percent and unfavorably by 49 percent. Among Hispanic respondents, views fall in between those of whites and Blacks, with 50 percent favorable and 38 percent unfavorable.

Views of the Black Lives Matter movement are highly positive among Black and Hispanic respondents, with a smaller majority of white respondents also holding a favorable view. Among Black respondents, 81 percent have a favorable view and 10 percent an unfavorable view. Among Hispanic respondents, 73 percent have favorable and 6 percent have unfavorable views of the Black Lives Matter movement. Among white respondents, 57 percent have a favorable and 29 percent have an unfavorable view.

The experience of encountering police is also strikingly different across racial groups. Overall, 86 percent say the police make them feel mostly safe, while 11 percent say police make them feel mostly anxious. Among Black respondents, 43 percent feel mostly safe and 44 percent feel mostly anxious about the police. White respondents feel little anxiety, with 90 percent feeling mostly safe and 8 percent feeling mostly anxious. Among Hispanic respondents, 72 percent feel mostly safe and 28 percent feel mostly anxious about the police.

Large differences across race emerge in views of the police use of force, both in general and in light of the killing of George Floyd by a Minneapolis police officer.

Forty-two percent say the police in general are too willing to use deadly force, while 51 percent say they are not. Among Black respondents, 68 percent say the police are too willing to use deadly force and 25 percent say they are not, while among white respondents, 38 percent say police are too willing and 54 percent say they are not. Among Hispanic respondents, 71 percent say police are too willing and 29 percent say they are not too willing to use deadly force.

Recent killings of Black Americans by the police are seen as isolated incidents by 44 percent of respondents and are seen as part of a larger pattern of how police treat Black Americans by 48 percent. Among Black respondents, 8 percent say these killings are isolated, while 86 percent say they represent a broader pattern. Among white respondents, 47 percent say these are isolated incidents, and 44 percent say they are part of a broader issue. Twenty-six percent of Hispanic respondents say these are isolated incidents, and 72 percent see a broader pattern.

Views of what to do about the police depend heavily on how the question is worded. “Calls to defund the police” are supported by 23 percent and opposed by 70 percent. In sharp contrast, when asked about “calls to restructure the role of the police and require greater accountability for police misconduct,” 81 percent support such changes, while 16 percent oppose this.

Among Black respondents, “defund the police” is supported by 45 percent and opposed by 41 percent. Among white respondents, 20 percent support and 73 percent oppose “defund the police.” Support for “defund” is 57 percent among Hispanic respondents and opposition is 36 percent.

There are much smaller differences across racial groups on the calls to “restructure” the police. Eighty-three percent of Black respondents support “restructure,” with 13 percent opposed. Among white respondents, 80 percent support and 17 percent oppose “restructure.” Support for “restructure” among Hispanic respondents is 97 percent, with none opposed.

Among all respondents, racial prejudice against Black people is seen as a very serious problem by 41 percent, as somewhat serious by 37 percent and as not serious or not a problem by 19 percent. Black and Hispanic respondents see a much more serious problem than do white respondents. Eighty-eight percent of Black respondents see prejudice as a very serious problem, as do 66 percent of Hispanic respondents, while 37 percent of white respondents say this is a very serious problem. Five percent of Black respondents say prejudice against Black people is little or no problem, as do 12 percent of Hispanic respondents while 21 percent of white respondents see little or no problem. The full crosstab of views of prejudice by race is shown in Table 11.

Coronavirus epidemic and impact

Worry over personal risk from COVID-19 has declined each month since March. In the June poll, 19 percent say they are very worried about COVID-19 and 36 percent are somewhat worried, while 21 percent are not very worried and 24 percent say they are not at all worried. In May, 25 percent were very worried, 35 percent somewhat worried, 20 percent not very worried and 19 percent not at all worried. The full trend since March is shown in Table 12.

In the June survey, 72 percent say that it was appropriate to close schools and businesses and restrict public gatherings, while 25 percent say this was an overreaction to the pandemic. In May, 69 percent said closures were appropriate and 26 percent said this was an overreaction, while in March, 86 percent said closures were appropriate and 10 percent said this was an overreaction,

Approval of Gov. Tony Evers’ handling of the coronavirus issue has also declined, with 58 percent who approve and 37 percent who disapprove. In May, 64 percent approved and 32 percent disapproved, while in March, 76 percent approved and 17 percent disapproved.

While concern over the virus and support for policies to reduce the spread of the disease have declined over the last three months, Wisconsin voters nonetheless now expect a much longer epidemic than they had once anticipated. Twelve percent say the coronavirus outbreak is now under control, 10 percent say it will be under control by the end of August and 16 percent say it will be under control sometime next fall. Forty percent say it will take about a year and 13 percent say it will take more than a year to control the epidemic. In March, many more, 44 percent, thought the epidemic would be under control by the end of May and 27 percent said by the end of August. At that time, 11 percent said the epidemic would be under control sometime next fall, while 7 percent thought it would take about a year and 2 percent said more than a year.

Views on reopening

There is considerable variation in what activities people say they are comfortable doing now that the Safer at Home order is no longer applicable.

With the new school year on the horizon, 54 percent say they are comfortable with letting students return to school in the fall, while 38 percent are uncomfortable with reopening schools.

A substantial 83 percent say they would be comfortable visiting a friend or family member’s home, while 16 percent would not be comfortable doing this.

Sixty-five percent say they would be comfortable shopping at a mall or large retail store such as Target or Walmart, although 34 percent would not be comfortable shopping.

Eating out at a restaurant is something 49 percent are comfortable with, while 49 percent are not comfortable with that.

Most people are uncomfortable with attending sports events such as baseball, basketball or football, a concert or a play: 33 percent are comfortable and 65 percent are uncomfortable attending large gatherings of this kind.

Looking to the national party conventions in August, including the Democratic convention in Milwaukee, 39 percent say both conventions should meet in-person, while 53 percent say they should not be held as in-person events.

Economic impact

Reported job loss is slightly lower in the June poll than in the May survey, with 13 percent saying they have lost a job. Twenty-seven percent say someone in their family, other than themselves, has suffered a job loss. In May, 15 percent reported having lost a job, with 33 percent saying someone else in their family had lost a job. Table 13 shows the trend in job loss.

Work hours have been reduced for 24 percent of respondents. Forty percent say some other family member has had work hours reduced. These results are little changed since March, as shown in Table 14.

Twelve percent say they have applied for unemployment insurance, and 30 percent say this has happened to some other family member. This question was not asked in earlier surveys.

Views of the direction of the economy have turned sharply down, with many more people saying the economy has gotten worse over the past year, although the outlook for the next 12 months has become substantially more positive since May. Tables 15 and 16 show the recent trends in these measures.

While many respondents have lost jobs or had working hours cut, there has not been a surge in reports of financial distress. However, those who have lost jobs or had family members lose jobs report substantially higher levels of financial insecurity, as shown in Tables 17 and 18.

Those who have had work hours reduced also report less financial security than those who have not had hours reduced. This result is shown in Table 19.

Black respondents have been especially hard hit by the economic consequences of the pandemic. Compiling the March, May, and June polling, 29 percent have lost a job, and 43 percent have had a family member other than themselves lose a job.

These job losses have pushed the financial situation of Black respondents into greater insecurity. In January and February, 41 percent of Black respondents said they were living comfortably, 48 percent said they were just getting by and 10 percent said they were struggling. In the combined March through June data, the percentage living comfortably was only a little lower, 37 percent, but those just getting by fell to 40 percent and those struggling rose to 22 percent.

Black people in Wisconsin have also suffered disproportionately high COVID-19 infection and death rates, compared to other groups, and this is reflected in higher worry about being affected by the disease. Among Black respondents in the combined March through June data, 44 percent are very worried about the consequences of being infected with COVID-19, while among white respondents, 23 percent are very worried. Hispanic respondents fall between the two groups, with 33 percent very worried.

Views of state officials

Job approval for Evers stands at 54 percent, with disapproval at 38 percent. Six percent say they don’t have an opinion. In May, 59 percent approved and 33 percent disapproved.

The recent trend in job approval of the governor is shown in Table 20.

Tables 21-23 present the recent favorability ratings of Evers, Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin and Republican Sen. Ron Johnson and the percentage of respondents who haven’t heard enough or say they don’t know.

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 805 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone from June 14-18, 2020. The margin of error is +/-4.3 percentage points for the full sample.

The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 45 percent Republican, 44 percent Democratic, and 9 percent independent. The partisan makeup of the sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 31 percent Republican, 29 percent Democratic, and 39 percent independent.

Since January 2017, the long-term partisan balance, including those who lean to a party, in the Marquette Law School Poll has been 45 percent Republican and 45 percent Democratic, with 9 percent independent. Partisanship exuding those who lean, has been 30 percent Republican and 29 percent Democratic, with 40 percent independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.