Public views of Justice Ginsburg and appointments to the Supreme Court

MILWAUKEE — Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who died on Sept. 18, was the best known of the current justices, according to a new Marquette Law School national survey of public opinion of the Supreme Court, completed three days before her death. While few of the justices have become household names, Ginsburg was the best known of the current justices, with 63 percent of respondents saying they knew enough about her to have a favorable or unfavorable opinion. She was seen favorably by 44 percent and unfavorably by 19 percent of adult respondents nationwide. By comparison, Chief Justice John Roberts was recognized and rated by 41 percent, while the most recently confirmed member of the Court, Justice Brett Kavanaugh, was almost as well-known as Ginsburg, with 60 percent. The vacancy on the Court created by Ginsburg’s death greatly increases the salience of a possible appointment to the Court in the midst of a presidential election campaign. In the survey, 48 percent say that the choice of the next justice is very important to them and 34 percent say it is somewhat important, while 17 percent say it is not too important or not at all important to them. Among likely voters who support Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, 59 percent say that the next court appointment is very important, while 51 percent of likely voters who support President Donald J. Trump say this. The importance of Court appointments, by vote choice, is shown in Table 1. Table 1: Importance of next Court appointment, by presidential vote Vote choiceVery importantSomewhat importantNot too/not at allBiden593011Trump513415 Partisan differences among all adults in the degree of importance of the next appointment are shown in Table 2, with 56 percent of Democrats and 48 percent of Republicans saying that the appointment is very important to them. Table 2 shows the full set of responses by partisanship. Table 2: Importance of next Court appointment, by party identification Party IDVery importantSomewhat importantNot too/not at allRepublican483318Independent393724Democrat563211 The question of holding hearings and a vote on confirming a new justice immediately became an issue with Justice Ginsburg’s death, as it had following the death of Justice Antonin Scalia in 2016. In this poll, conducted in the days before Ginsburg’s death, a substantial majority of respondents of both parties say that if a vacancy occurred during the 2020 election year, the Senate should hold hearings on a nominee, with 67 percent saying hearings should be held and 32 percent saying they should not be held. Views on holding hearings do not vary much by partisanship, as shown in Table 3. This table will provide a baseline from before there was a vacancy against which to measure any future change in partisan views, if a nomination is made and considered. Table 3: Hold hearings on a nominee in 2020, by party identification Party IDHold hearingsNot hold hearingsRepublican6831Independent7128Democrat6337 By contrast, partisans are much more divided on whether the decision not to hold hearings in 2016 on the nomination of Merrick B. Garland was the…

New Marquette Law School Poll finds little change in a close Biden–Trump contest and slight movement in Wisconsin voters’ opinions following Kenosha events

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll in Wisconsin finds slight change in voting preferences or attitudes in the wake of shootings and protests in Kenosha, Wisconsin, in late August. In early September, Democratic former Vice President Joe Biden is the choice of 47 percent of likely voters and Republican President Donald Trump is supported by 43 percent. Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen is the choice of 4 percent, while 7 percent say they would vote for none of these candidates, didn’t know how they would vote or declined to say. In August, before the events in Kenosha, Biden was supported by 49 percent and Trump by 44 percent, with 6 percent not choosing either. Jorgensen was not included in the August poll. In June among likely voters, Biden had 50 percent and Trump 44 percent, with 6 percent not choosing either. Other findings from the new poll include: Approval of Black Lives Matter protests barely changed following the Kenosha events.Approval of President Trump’s response to protests rose following his visit to Kenosha among Republicans but shifted only slightly among other voters.Gov. Tony Evers’ job approval has fallen to pre-coronavirus levels after a period of increased approval.Parents of school-age children have grown more uncomfortable with reopening schools.While two-thirds of respondents say they would definitely or probably get a vaccine for COVID-19, a third say they would probably or definitely not get vaccinated. The poll was conducted from Aug. 30 to Sept. 3, 2020. The sample included 802 registered voters in Wisconsin interviewed by cell phone or landline, with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. There are 688 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percentage points. Table 1 shows the trend in the presidential vote among likely voters from May through September. Table 2 shows the trend in preferences among all registered voters over the same period. Jorgensen was not included before this September poll. (Note: Likely voters are those who say they are certain to vote in November. Registered voters refer to all respondents who are registered to vote or who say they will register by the election. Tables below are based on registered voters unless "likely voters" is indicated in the heading.) Table 1: Vote among likely voters, May–September 2020 Poll DatesJoe BidenDonald TrumpJo JorgensenNone/other (VOL)Don’t knowRefusedn5/3-7/204945NA3216506/14-18/205044NA3216868/4-9/204944NA3216758/30-9/3/2047434232688 Table 2: Vote among registered voters, May–September 2020 Poll DatesJoe BidenDonald TrumpJo JorgensenNone/other (VOL)Don’t knowRefusedn5/3-7/204643NA4428116/14-18/204941NA5328058/4-9/204842NA6318018/30-9/3/2046405352802 Views of protests, BLM, and police after Kenosha Approval of protests over police shootings of Black Americans declined among registered voters from June to early August, prior to events in Kenosha, but barely moved following the Kenosha shootings and protests, as shown in Table 3. Table 3: Approval of protests against police shootings, June–September 2020 Poll DatesApproveDisapproveDon’t known6/14-18/20613628058/4-9/20484838018/30-9/3/2047484802 Favorable views of the Black Lives Matter movement also declined from June to August, but did not change further in September, as shown in Table 4. Table 4: Favorable or unfavorable view of Black Lives Matter movement, June–September 2020 Poll DatesFavorableUnfavorableHaven’t heard enoughDon’t known6/14-18/205927658058/4-9/2049371058018/30-9/3/20493785802 There were small changes…