New Marquette Law School Poll finds ties in Wisconsin races for both governor and attorney general

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll finds Republican Gov. Scott Walker and Democratic challenger Mary Burke tied in the Wisconsin governor’s race, with 47 percent of likely voters supporting each candidate. Another 4 percent say that they are undecided or that they do not know whom they will support, while fewer than 1 percent say that they will vote for someone else. Likely voters are those who say that they are certain to vote in the November election. Among registered voters, Walker receives 48 percent and Burke 45 percent, with 5 percent undecided and fewer than 1 percent saying that they will vote for someone else. In the previous Marquette Law School Poll, conducted Sept. 25-28, Walker held a 50-45 edge over Burke among likely voters, while 46 percent of registered voters supported Walker to Burke’s 45 percent support. The poll interviewed 1,004 registered voters and 803 likely voters by landline and cell phone Oct. 9-12. For the full sample of 1,004 registered voters, the margin of error is +/- 3.2 percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of 803 likely voters is +/- 3.5 percentage points. In the race for attorney general, among likely voters, Republican Brad Schimel and Democrat Susan Happ each receive support from 42 percent, with 16 percent saying that they are undecided or don’t know for whom they will vote. Among registered voters, both candidates receive 39 percent support, with 19 percent yet to choose a candidate. Demographic differences Among likely voters who think of themselves as independents, Burke receives 45 percent support to Walker’s 44 percent. In the Sept. 25-28 poll, independents supported Walker by 53 percent to Burke’s 40 percent. Partisan voters remain loyal to their parties, with Walker winning 96 percent of Republican likely voters and Burke winning 94 percent of Democrats, barely changed over the past two weeks. Just 4 percent of Republicans are crossing over to vote for Burke while 3 percent of Democrats are voting for Walker. Regionally, Burke leads in the City of Milwaukee (76-21 percent) and in the Madison media market (59-32). Walker leads in the Milwaukee market outside the city (53-40) and in the Green Bay market (58 39). In the rest of the state, Walker leads 51-46 percent. The gender gap, which was exceptionally strong in the previous poll, has all but vanished in this poll. Among likely voters, men favor Walker by a 48-46 percentage-point margin while women favor Burke 48-47. Among all registered voters, men prefer Walker 49-43 and women are evenly split at 47 percent for each candidate. Since July, Walker’s advantage among men has varied between 11 and 28 percentage points, while Burke’s advantage among women has ranged from 6 to 18 percentage points. In the 2012 U.S. Senate race between Tammy Baldwin and Tommy Thompson, the gender gap among likely voters also showed substantial variation, with Baldwin’s advantage among women ranging from 2 to 16 points, while men favored Thompson by as much as 19 points…

New Marquette Law School Poll finds Walker leading in race for Wisconsin governor; attorney general race remains tied

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll in the Wisconsin governor’s race finds Republican Gov. Scott Walker receiving the support of 50 percent of likely voters and Democratic challenger Mary Burke receiving 45 percent support. Another 3 percent say that they are undecided or that they do not know whom they will support, while 1 percent say that they will vote for someone else. Likely voters are those who say they are certain to vote in the November election. Among registered voters, Walker receives 46 percent and Burke 45 percent, with 4 percent undecided and 1 percent saying they will vote for someone else. In the previous Marquette poll, conducted Sept. 11-14, Walker held a 49-46 edge over Burke among likely voters and registered voters tied at 46 percent support for each candidate. The poll interviewed 801 registered voters and 585 likely voters by landline and cell phone from Sept. 25 to 28. For the full sample of 801 registered voters, the margin of error is +/- 3.5 percentage points. The margin of error for the sample of 585 likely voters is +/- 4.1 percentage points. In the race for attorney general, among likely voters, Republican Brad Schimel receives support from 41 percent and Democrat Susan Happ from 39 percent, with 19 percent saying that they are undecided or don’t know for whom they will vote. Among registered voters, Schimel receives 37 percent and Happ 37 percent, with 22 percent yet to choose a candidate. Both results are inside the margin of error for the poll. A large gender gap is present in voting for both governor and attorney general. Among likely voters, Walker leads among men with 62 percent to 34 percent for Burke. Among women, Burke leads with 54 percent to Walker’s 40 percent. With registered voters, Walker leads among men 54-39 percent while Burke leads among women 50-40 percent. With likely voters in the attorney general’s race, Schimel leads among males, with 49 percent to Happ’s 32 percent, while among females Happ leads, with 45 percent to Schimel’s 34 percent. For registered voters, Schimel leads among men by 44-33 percent while Happ leads among women 41-31 percent. Walker wins 95 percent of Republican likely voters while Burke wins 94 percent of Democrats. Independents support Walker by 53 percent to Burke’s 40 percent. Burke holds an edge among likely voters with family income below $40,000 with 53 percent to 43 percent for Walker. Those with family incomes between $40,000 and $75,000 lean to Walker over Burke by 50 percent to 46 percent. Among families with incomes over $75,000, Walker receives 53 percent to Burke’s 42 percent. Regionally, Burke leads in the city of Milwaukee 69-24 percent and in the Madison media market 66-31 percent. Walker leads in the Milwaukee market outside the city by 62-32 and in the Green Bay market 52‑43. In the rest of the state, Walker leads 58-39 percent. Photo ID for voting Following a federal appeals court ruling in September permitting the state to enforce a law requiring…