Tag Archives: Analysis

July, August, November: New Poll Results Portray Shifting Election Currents

It’s July again in Wisconsin. What does that say about November?

Most likely, it says that the two big political contests in Wisconsin, with 10 electoral votes for president and a US Senate seek at stake, are not done-deals and that there will be continuing volatility among voters and intense campaigning by candidates for the next 10 weeks.

You can think of this as July in terms of the results of the Marquette Law School Poll. A new round of results, released on Wednesday, showed that both the presidential and Senate races had tightened since the most recent round of polling three weeks earlier. And the bump that Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton received in the early-August poll, conducted shortly after the national political conventions and amid a series of troubled developments for the Republican candidate Donald Trump, is gone. “The electorate in Wisconsin has returned to about where the vote stood in July, prior to the conventions,” said Charles Franklin, director of the poll and professor of law and public policy at Marquette Law School.

After a series of troubled developments for Clinton in recent weeks, her numbers were less favorable on a range of questions and she and Trump were back in a close race. The poll found Clinton ahead in Wisconsin by five percentage points among registered voters and three percentage points among likely voters.

Trump continued to have poor but generally stable results on questions such as whether you have a favorable opinion of him, whether you think he is honest, and whether you would be comfortable with him as president. But Clinton’s results on those questions were not much different than his.

In the Senate race, Democrat Russ Feingold led Republican Ron Johnson by four percentage points among all registered voters, down from six points three weeks earlier. And Feingold led among likely voters by three percentage points, down from eleven points in early August. Those results were also more like the July results than the early August results.

Franklin said trends to keep an eye on in coming weeks will include indicators of voter turnout. The new poll showed an increase in Republicans intending to vote and a decrease in Democrats intending to vote. The changes were not large, but they could be enough to be important.

Interesting results in the new poll include two sets of data. One shows that Trump is winning in Wisconsin among higher income voters while Clinton is doing well among middle and low-income voters. That differs from some commentaries that have painted many Trump supporters as lower income. A second set shows Trump winning among the nearly-half of all those polled who think the next generation of Americans will not have as good a life as the current generation, while Clinton does well among those who are more optimistic about the future or think it will, at least, not be worse than the present.

Near the end of the program three weeks ago when poll results were released, a member of the audience asked if, in reality, the presidential and Senate races were as good as over in Wisconsin. Franklin said then that he wouldn’t agree with that and things change during the course of a campaign.

At the session this week, no one asked a question like that, and it was clear that Franklin was right.

Full results of the new poll may be found by clicking here. Video of the hour-long “On the Issues with Mike Gousha” program at which Franklin presented results may be viewed by clicking here.

New Poll Shows Wider Clinton Lead, But It’s Not Over, Franklin Says

A member of the audience had a question Wednesday after Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, and Mike Gousha, the Law School’s distinguished fellow in law and public policy, completed presenting the results of a new round of poll results.

“Isn’t it a fair statement that, between us guys, the presidential race is about over?” he asked.

Franklin responded, “I’m not there.” He added, “When we look at all of the presidential races since the ‘90s, where we have pretty good data, we actually see most of those showing some real rises and falls over time. . . .  I think it’s a bit of hubris to think that whatever we believe today is unchangeable, that no event can matter.”

That important point made, the new results, based on polling from August 4 to 7, showed movement since the last Law School Poll a month ago that left Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton with a wider lead than before over Republican candidate Donald Trump. In broad terms, Clinton’s numbers improved in the period that included the Democratic national convention and Trump’s numbers changed little or slipped in the period that included the Republican convention.

The results also pointed toward continuing divisions among Republicans and growing unity among Democrats, with small indications that the percentage of Democrats intending to vote is rising while the percentage of Republicans intending to vote is declining.

The closely-followed results of the Marquette Law School Poll had Clinton supported by 46 percent of registered voters in Wisconsin and Trump supported by 36 percent, with 16 percent saying they will vote for neither, not vote, or haven’t made up their minds. A month earlier, Clinton led Trump among registered voters by six percentage points, 43 to 37.

Among voters considered likely to vote, Clinton drew support from 52 percent and Trump from 37 percent, a 15-point difference that brought an audible reaction from the audience in the Law School’s Appellate Courtroom when it was first announced. A month ago, Clinton led Trump among likely voters by four points, 45 percent to 41 percent.

There was small favorable movement for Clinton on some of the questions asked in the poll. Overall, 43 percent of those polled viewed Clinton favorably, up from 36 percent in the July poll. Her unfavorable ratings went from 58 percent in July to 53 percent in August.

For Trump, 29 percent viewed him favorably in July and 27 percent in August. Unfavorable percentages for Trump were 63 percent in July and 65 percent in August.

Both candidates remain broadly unpopular and have low ratings when it comes questions such as whether people think they are honest. The question of how comfortable people would be with either as president continues to draw strong negative responses: 55 percent of registered voters were uncomfortable with the thought of Clinton as president, including 41 percent who say they are “very uncomfortable.” For Trump, 68 percent of voters are uncomfortable with him being president, including 53 percent who say they are “very uncomfortable.”

One striking difference was on the question of whether each candidate has the qualifications to be president. The poll found 58 percent saying Clinton has the qualifications while 29 percent say Trump has the qualifications.

Summarizing other poll results released Wednesday:

In the US Senate race in Wisconsin, Democratic candidate Russ Feingold was supported by 49 percent of registered voters and Republican incumbent Ron Johnson by 43 percent. In July, the tally was Feingold 48 percent and Johnson 41 percent. Among likely voters, Feingold was supported by 53 percent of voters and Johnson by 42 percent. In July, the figures among likely voters were Feingold 49 percent and Johnson 44 percent.

Comparing the two Republican candidates, Franklin said Johnson is doing better than Trump by about four percentage points in some measures in Wisconsin.

Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, who represents a district in southeast Wisconsin and who won nomination for another term in the House of Representatives by a large margin in Tuesday’s primary, is viewed favorably by 54 percent of all those polled in Wisconsin and by 80 percent of Republicans statewide. Franklin said that, even with all that has gone on involving Ryan in recent weeks, including the controversy over whether Trump would endorse him in the primary, Ryan’s standing in Wisconsin has improved.

The job approval ratings of Republican Gov. Scott Walker continue to be well below what they were in Walker’s first four years in office. In the new results, 38 percent of registered voters approved of how Walker was doing as governor and 59 percent disapproved. In July, the figures were 38 percent approval and 58 percent disapproval. Walker’s approval total has been below 40 percent in most Law School Polls since his unsuccessful presidential campaign in 2015.

But for all the results, remember what Franklin said: Nothing’s over yet. There’s just a bit under three months to go to the November election and, as has been demonstrated this year, unexpected things are likely to happen.

New Poll Results: Even “Smidgens” of Change Provide Insight

The word for the day was “smidgeny” when a new round of Marquette Law School Poll results were released on Wednesday.

“I think smidgen is a word I’m going to wear out today because these differences are truly smidgeny,” Charles Franklin, director of the poll and professor of law and public policy at the Law School, said as he walked the audience at Eckstein Hall and online through the results of polling done from July 7 to 10.

A lot of the numbers on the presidential race, the US Senate race in Wisconsin, and other matters did not change much in recent weeks, even as major events focused on Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump occurred.

Overall, Clinton continued to lead Trump in Wisconsin among both all registered voters and those who are likely to vote. Democrat Russ Feingold continued to lead Republican Ron Johnson in the Senate race. Margins were in single digits, but Franklin said there was enough movement in answers to some questions to indicate both races are tightening.

And even if the numbers didn’t change much, the light that the poll results shine on what is happening remains strong. Franklin pointed to several important themes people should keep in mind as the campaign season unfolds in Wisconsin and nationwide. Among them:

Turn-out. The proportion of Republicans who said they were going to vote in November fell from 87 percent in the Law School Poll conducted in March to 78 percent in the June poll, which suggested problems for that party’s candidates. In July, 80 percent said they were going to vote, which brightened the Republican picture a bit. And the percentage of Democrats who said they were going to vote was 78 percent in July, compared to 84 percent in June, which suggested concerns for that party. Franklin said keeping an eye on trends related to who will actually come out to vote in November was going to be important.

Party unity. The new results indicated growing feeling among Democrats that the party was uniting as the contentious primary season fades and the election gets closer. In June, only 18 percent said the party was united, but in July that rose to 39 percent. Among Republicans, 12 percent said the party was united in June and that declined to 5 percent in July, with 46 percent saying the party is divided and will still be divided in November. Party unity will be a big issue for both Democrats and Republicans, Franklin said, which adds importance to the national conventions of each party to be held over the next two weeks. Will there be a convention bounce for either candidate?

The continuing strength of negative opinions of both Trump and Clinton. Large majorities of voters don’t like Clinton and Trump. In line with prior Law School polls and polls by others around the nation, both candidates have very high negative ratings on many questions. Overall in the new results, 29 percent had favorable views of Trump and 63 percent had unfavorable views. For Clinton, it was 36 percent favorable, 58 percent unfavorable. And the percentage of voters who say they would be “very uncomfortable” with the candidates as president was 43 percent for Clinton and 55 percent for Trump.

Third party candidates. For the first time, the Law School asked about support for Gary Johnson Libertarian candidate for president, and Jill Stein, Green Party candidate for president, as well as Phil Anderson, Libertarian candidate in Wisconsin’s Senate race. In a four-candidate question asked of registered voters on the presidential race, support came in at 40 percent for Clinton, 33 percent for Trump, 10 percent for Johnson, and 4 percent for Stein.  That leaves more than 10 percent not picking any of them, but it is enough to suggest more voters than usual may turn away from the main party candidates.

Gov. Scott Walker’s continuing poor poll numbers. Opinions of Walker’s job performance were consistently around 50 percent favorable in Law School Polls for several years. But after his presidential campaign failed in mid-2015, his numbers went down. In the new results, 38 percent said they approved of Walkers job performance and 58 percent disapproved. That is consistent with polling over the last year. Franklin said points to a long-term decline in Walker’s popularlty and not a short term blip.

There were plenty of other results in the poll that showed that even “smidgens” can add up to insight. The full results may be found by clicking here. And the one-hour conversation about the results between Franklin and Mike Gousha, the Law School’s distinguished fellow in law and public policy, may be viewed by clicking here.