MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin finds a close race for governor and Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes with a 7-percentage-point lead in the race for U.S. Senate.

In the governor’s race, 45% support Democratic incumbent Gov. Tony Evers and 43% favor Republican Tim Michels. The independent candidate, Joan Beglinger, is chosen by 7%, with 3% saying they don’t know and 2% who declined to answer. These responses include those who are undecided but who say they lean toward supporting a candidate. In June, 48% supported Evers and 41% favored Michels.

Table 1 shows the vote preference for governor among registered voters since June. Beglinger was not included in the June survey. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: Vote for Wisconsin governor among registered voters

Poll dates	Evers	Michels	Beglinger	Other	Don’t know	Refused
8/10-15/22	45	43	7	0	3	2
6/14-20/22	48	41	NA	2	8	2

In the race for U.S. Senate, Democrat Mandela Barnes is supported by 51% and incumbent Republican Sen. Ron Johnson is the choice of 44%, while 1% say “neither,” 3% say they don’t know and 1% decline to answer. Vote preference includes those who say they are undecided but who say they lean toward a candidate. In the June poll, 46% preferred Barnes and 44% chose Johnson.

Table 2 shows the trend in support for the Senate candidates among registered voters since June.

Table 2: Vote for U.S. Senate among registered voters

Poll dates	Barnes	Johnson	Neither	Don’t know	Refused
8/10-15/22	51	44	1	3	1
6/14-20/22	46	44	1	7	2

The survey was conducted Aug. 10-15, 2022, interviewing 811 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.2 percentage points.

Partisan support for the candidates in the race for governor is shown in Table 3. Both Democratic and Republican voters are strongly unified behind their respective party’s candidates, with 91% of Democrats supporting Evers and 89% of Republicans supporting Michels. Forty-one percent of independents back Evers, while 37% prefer Michels. The independent candidate, Beglinger, receives 12% from independent voters and 4% from Republicans and 3% from Democrats.

Table 3: Vote for governor among registered voters, by party identification

(a) August

Party ID	Evers	Michels	Beglinger	Other	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	6	89	4	0	1	0
Independent	41	37	12	0	7	2
Democrat	91	4	3	0	1	1

(b) June

Party ID	Evers	Michels	Other	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	5	86	1	7	1
Independent	49	35	3	11	2
Democrat	95	2	0	2	0

Partisan support for the U.S. Senate candidates is shown in Table 4. As in the governor’s race, partisans are well aligned with their party’s candidates, with 95% of Democrats supporting Barnes and 92% of Republicans supporting Johnson. Fifty-two percent of independents back Barnes, while 38% prefer Johnson.

Table 4: Vote for U.S. Senate among registered voters, by party identification

(a) August

Party ID	Barnes	Johnson	Neither	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	7	92	0	1	1
Independent	52	38	2	5	2
Democrat	95	4	0	1	1

(b) June

Party ID	Barnes	Johnson	Neither	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	6	89	0	4	0
Independent	41	41	3	13	3
Democrat	95	2	0	3	0

Among Republicans, 83% say they are absolutely certain to vote in November’s elections, as do 82% of Democrats and 66% of independents. Certainty of voting by party is shown in Table 5. Registered voters were asked, “Are you absolutely certain to vote, very likely to vote, are the chances 50-50, or don’t you think you will vote?”

Table 5: What are the chances that you will vote in the November 2022 general election for governor, Congress, and other offices?

(a) August

Party ID	Absolutely certain	Very likely	50-50	Will not vote	Don’t know
Republican	83	11	4	2	0
Independent	66	16	14	3	0
Democrat	82	8	5	5	0

The effect of the different levels of voter turnout on vote for governor is shown in Table 6. The first row shows preference among all registered voters, with the second row showing the results for an electorate composed of those either “absolutely certain” to vote or “very likely” to vote. The third row shows the results among only the most likely voters—those who say they are absolutely certain to vote.

Table 6: Vote for governor, by certainty of voting

How likely to vote	Evers	Michels	Beglinger	Other	Don’t know
All registered voters	45	43	7	0	3
Certain or very likely to vote	46	44	5	0	2
Only those certain to vote	48	44	4	0	2

Table 7 shows the vote for U.S. Senate by certainty of voting.

Table 7: Vote for U.S. Senate, by certainty of voting

How likely to vote	Barnes	Johnson	Neither	Don’t know
All registered voters	51	44	1	3
Certain or very likely to vote	52	45	0	2
Only those certain to vote	52	45	0	1

Perceived candidate traits

Table 8 shows the perception of the trait that candidates “care about people like you.” Beglinger was not included in the traits battery of questions in this survey.

The relative lack of familiarity with the non-incumbent candidates, Michels and Barnes, is evident in the higher percentages that say they “don’t know” about them, compared to the two incumbents, Evers and Johnson.

Table 8: For each of the following candidates, would you say they are someone who cares about people like you, or don’t they care about people like you?

Candidate	Cares	Doesn’t care	Don’t know
Evers	54	38	9
Michels	38	38	23
Barnes	50	27	23
Johnson	41	49	10

Table 9 shows the perception of the trait that candidates “share my values.” As with the previous table, the non-incumbents, Michels and Barnes, have higher rates of “don’t know” responses on these items.

Table 9: For each of the following candidates, would you say they are someone who shares your values or don’t they share your values?

Candidate	Shares values	Doesn’t share values	Don’t know
Evers	50	41	9
Michels	38	38	23
Barnes	45	31	24
Johnson	40	50	10

Table 10 shows the favorable and unfavorable ratings of the candidates since June, along with those who say they haven’t heard enough or don’t know. Beglinger was not included in this battery of items.

The non-incumbents have become substantially better known following their primary victories on Aug. 9, though they remain much less well known than the incumbents.

Table 10: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of [INSERT NAME] or haven’t you heard enough about them yet?

(a) Evers

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
8/10-15/22	46	41	6	6	0
6/14-20/22	44	42	11	2	0

(b) Michels

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
8/10-15/22	33	33	24	10	0
6/14-20/22	22	22	51	5	0

(c) Barnes

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
8/10-15/22	37	22	30	11	0
6/14-20/22	21	16	57	6	0

(d) Johnson

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
8/10-15/22	38	47	9	6	0
6/14-20/22	37	46	14	2	0

Evers’ job approval

Table 11 shows approval of how Evers has handled his job as governor since February 2022. In a series of four polls beginning in February, Evers’ net approval has declined from +9 to +2 in August.

Table 11: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Tony Evers is handling his job as Governor of Wisconsin?

Poll dates	Net approval	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused
8/10-15/22	2	47	45	8	1
6/14-20/22	3	48	45	6	1
4/19-24/22	6	49	43	7	1
2/22-27/22	9	50	41	8	1

Importance of issues

In each survey by the Marquette Law School Poll since August 2021, respondents have been asked to rate how concerned they are with a variety of issues. Table 12 shows the concern with nine issues in the current survey, sorted from highest to lowest percentage saying they are “very concerned.”

Table 12: How concerned are you about each of the following? Are you very concerned, somewhat concerned, not too concerned, or not at all concerned with …

Issue	Very concerned	Somewhat concerned	Not too concerned	Not at all concerned
Inflation	67	27	4	0
Gun violence	61	26	6	5
Crime	58	30	9	2
Abortion policy	55	25	8	7
Public schools	54	34	7	3
Taxes	47	38	12	3
Climate change	41	28	13	17
Illegal immigration	40	28	15	16
Coronavirus	20	35	20	25

Inflation ranks as the top issue concern, but as Table 13 shows, there has been a decline in concern about this issue in August, following falling gasoline prices and a lower core rate of inflation from June to July according to the monthly consumer price index. There had been a steady rise in concern about inflation from August 2021 until June 2022.

Table 13: Concern about inflation, Aug. 2021-Aug. 2022

Poll dates	Very concerned	Somewhat concerned	Not too concerned	Not at all concerned
8/10-15/22	67	27	4	0
6/14-20/22	75	20	4	1
4/19-24/22	69	23	6	1
2/22-27/22	68	28	3	1
10/26-31/21	64	28	6	1
8/3-8/21	49	35	11	3

Partisans differ substantially in their concern over particular issues, as shown in Table 14. Panel (a) is sorted by Republican concern and panel (b) by concern among Democrats. The entries are the percentage of each partisan group who say they are “very concerned” about the issue.

 

Table 14: Issue concerns, percent ‘very concerned,’ by party identification

(a) Listed in order of concern among Republicans

Issue	Republican	Independent	Democrat
Inflation	91	67	42
Crime	80	47	53
Taxes	72	44	26
Illegal immigration	67	34	19
Public schools	60	50	53
Gun violence	45	59	77
Abortion policy	39	53	73
Coronavirus	9	15	40
Climate change	8	40	79

(b)Listed in order of concern among Democrats

Issue	Republican	Independent	Democrat
Climate change	8	40	79
Gun violence	45	59	77
Abortion policy	39	53	73
Public schools	60	50	53
Crime	80	47	53
Inflation	91	67	42
Coronavirus	9	15	40
Taxes	72	44	26
Illegal immigration	67	34	19

Abortion

In June, the U.S. Supreme Court overturned the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision which had meant that abortion was legal in all states. The public, both overall and in each partisan category, has heard a great deal about the June 2022 decision, as shown in Table 15.

 

Table 15: How much have you heard or read about a recent United States Supreme Court decision on abortion?, total and by party identification

Party ID	A lot	A little	Nothing at all	Don’t know
Total	79	17	3	0
Republican	76	22	2	0
Independent	78	16	5	1
Democrat	86	12	2	0

The decision to overturn Roe v. Wade is opposed by a majority of Wisconsin registered voters, including majorities of independents and Democrats, while it is favored by a majority of Republicans in the state, as shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Do you favor or oppose the recent Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe versus Wade, thus striking down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states?

Party ID	Favor	Oppose	Haven’t heard of decision	Don’t Know	Refused
Total	33	60	1	4	2
Republican	62	28	0	8	2
Independent	31	62	2	2	3
Democrat	5	92	0	2	1

Views of abortion policy have shifted by a few points, in favor of legal abortions, since the June 2022 Marquette Law School Poll, which was conducted before the Supreme Court’s abortion decision. Table 17 shows the change from June to August, overall and by party identification.

Table 17: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all cases?

(a) Opinion in June and August

Poll dates	Legal in all cases	Legal in most cases	Illegal in most cases	Illegal in all cases	Don’t know	Refused
8/10-15/22	30	35	25	5	3	1
6/14-20/22	27	31	24	11	5	2

(b) Opinion by party identification, August

Party ID	Legal in all cases	Legal in most cases	Illegal in most cases	Illegal in all cases	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	9	24	55	10	2	1
Independent	30	40	18	5	4	2
Democrat	53	41	5	1	1	0

(c) Opinion by party identification, June

Party ID	Legal in all cases	Legal in most cases	Illegal in most cases	Illegal in all cases	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	8	21	43	20	6	1
Independent	30	30	23	10	5	2
Democrat	45	42	6	5	3	0

The respondents to the August survey overwhelmingly support allowing legal abortions in the case of rape or incest, with 79% or more support in each partisan group, as shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Do you think Wisconsin should or should not allow a woman to obtain a legal abortion if she became pregnant as the result of rape or incest?

Party ID	Should allow	Should not allow	Don’t Know	Refused
Total	88	8	4	1
Republican	79	16	4	2
Independent	87	6	5	2
Democrat	97	1	1	0

Jan. 6th and Opinion of Trump

More than half of respondents say they have heard a lot about the hearings of the House Select Committee on the events at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021. Table 19 shows how much respondents have heard, first among the total sample and then for each partisan group.

Table 19: How much have you heard or read about the hearings of the House Select Committee on Jan. 6th?

Party ID	A lot	A little	Nothing at all	Don’t know
Total	57	27	15	1
Republican	53	32	14	1
Independent	53	28	19	0
Democrat	70	19	11	1

Views of former President Donald Trump’s responsibility for violence at the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, vary sharply by party identification, as shown in Table 20.

 

Table 20: How much responsibility, if any, should Donald Trump bear for the violence of some of his supporters in the United States Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021?

Party ID	A lot	A little	Nothing at all	Don’t know	Refused
Total	47	19	31	2	2
Republican	8	26	62	3	2
Independent	46	22	29	1	2
Democrat	89	7	2	2	0

Opinion on the accuracy of the results of the 2020 presidential election continues to sharply divide the public, with 66% saying they are very or somewhat confident and 32% saying they are not too confident or not at all confident in the election result. These views overall and by party identification are shown in Table 21.

Table 21: How confident are you that, here in Wisconsin, the votes for president were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election?

Party ID	Very confident	Somewhat confident	Not too confident	Not at all confident	Don’t know	Refused
Total	48	18	15	17	2	1
Republican	13	24	25	37	1	0
Independent	46	21	15	13	3	1
Democrat	90	5	3	0	2	0

Among all registered voters, 38% have a favorable opinion of Trump, 57% have an unfavorable opinion of him and 5% lack an opinion or declined to answer. These views have barely changed during 2022, as shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump or haven’t you heard enough about him yet?

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
8/10-15/22	38	57	1	4	0
6/14-20/22	39	56	3	2	0
4/19-24/22	36	58	2	3	1
2/22-27/22	36	57	2	3	2

Table 23 shows opinion of Trump overall and by party identification in the August survey. A substantial majority of Republicans hold a favorable view of Trump, while majorities of independents and Democrats have an unfavorable opinion of him.

 

Table 23: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Donald Trump or haven’t you heard enough about him yet? August 2022

Party ID	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
Total	38	57	1	4	0
Republican	77	15	2	5	1
Independent	34	62	0	4	0
Democrat	3	95	0	1	1

A majority of Wisconsin Republicans would like Trump to run for president in 2024, while a majority of independents and Democrats, and an overall majority, prefer that he not seek the presidency, as shown in Table 24.

Table 24: Would you like to see Donald Trump run for president in 2024, or not?

Party ID	Yes	No	Don’t know	Refused
Total	29	65	5	1
Republican	59	33	7	1
Independent	26	66	6	2
Democrat	3	97	0	0

The entire survey period, which began on Aug. 10, 2022, ran after the FBI executed a search warrant at Trump’s property in Mar-a-Lago, in Florida, on Aug. 8, although the survey had already been finalized and so did not specifically inquire about the development.

Other issues

Support for a requirement of paid parental leave for new parents is strong overall, with 78% in favor of requiring businesses to offer paid leave and 17% opposed. Table 25 shows that majorities of each party favor such a proposal.

Table 25: Do you favor or oppose a proposal that would require businesses to provide paid family leave for mothers and fathers of new babies?

Party ID	Favor	Oppose	Don’t Know	Refused
Total	78	17	5	1
Republican	65	28	4	3
Independent	79	15	6	0
Democrat	90	6	4	0

A majority, 69%, favor legalization of marijuana, while 23% are opposed. Table 26 shows opinion overall and by party.

 

Table 26: Do you think the use of marijuana should be made legal, or not?

Party ID	Yes, legal	No, illegal	Don’t Know	Refused
Total	69	23	8	0
Republican	51	39	10	0
Independent	75	20	4	0
Democrat	81	10	8	1

Forty-three percent of registered voters say it is more important to reduce property taxes, while 52% say it is more important to increase spending on public schools. When last asked in April 2022, 46% said reduce property taxes and 50% said increase spending on public schools. Table 27 shows the partisan divide on support for property tax cuts vs. spending on schools in the August survey.

Table 27: Which is more important to you: reduce property taxes or increase spending on public schools?

Party ID	Reducing property taxes	Increasing spending on public schools	Don’t know	Refused
Total	43	52	5	0
Republican	70	23	6	1
Independent	40	54	5	0
Democrat	16	80	4	0

Expanding the number of students using publicly funded vouchers to attend private schools is favored by 46% and opposed by 45%. This is little changed from a year ago, in August 2021, when 45% favored and 45% were opposed. Table 28 shows how opinion on this issue differs by party identification in the current survey.

Table 28: Would you favor or oppose expanding the number of students using publicly funded vouchers to attend private schools?

Party ID	Favor expanding vouchers	Oppose expanding vouchers	Don’t know
Total	46	45	9
Republican	57	35	8
Independent	51	42	8
Democrat	26	62	13

Opinion on vouchers is sensitive to the wording of the question. In the April 2022 survey, the question was phrased as “Do you favor or oppose allowing all students statewide to use publicly funded vouchers to attend private or religious schools if they wish to do so?” With that wording in April, 58% favored extending vouchers to all students, and 33% were opposed.

Other trends

A majority of respondents, 56%, think the state is off on the wrong track, while 35% say it is headed in the right direction. The trend since February is shown in Table 29.

Table 29: Thinking just about the state of Wisconsin, do you feel things in Wisconsin are generally going in the right direction, or do you feel things have gotten off on the wrong track?

Poll dates	Right direction	Wrong track	Don’t know	Refused
8/10-15/22	35	56	9	0
6/14-20/22	37	56	6	0
4/19-24/22	36	56	7	0
2/22-27/22	39	53	8	1

In August, 40% approve of the way President Joe Biden is handling his job, while 55% disapprove. In June, 40% approved and 57% disapproved. The trend in Biden approval in 2022 is shown in Table 30.

Table 30: Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the way Joe Biden is handling his job as president?

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused
8/10-15/22	40	55	5	1
6/14-20/22	40	57	3	0
4/19-24/22	43	53	3	1
2/22-27/22	43	52	3	2

Sen. Tammy Baldwin is seen favorably by 39% and unfavorably by 37%. The trend in views of Baldwin is shown in Table 31.

Table 31: Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Tammy Baldwin or haven’t you heard enough about her yet?

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
8/10-15/22	39	37	18	6	0
6/14-20/22	39	37	20	3	1
4/19-24/22	43	36	17	3	0
2/22-27/22	42	36	18	3	1

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 811 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone, Aug. 10-15, 2022. The margin of error is +/-4.2 percentage points for the full sample.

Some issue items were asked of half the sample. Those on Form A were asked of 409 and have a margin of error of +/-6 percentage points. Form B items were asked of 402 and have a margin of error of +/-6 percentage points.

Items asked of half-samples on Form A include concern about public schools, inflation, abortion policy, taxes, gun violence, and crime. Form B asked concern about the coronavirus pandemic, illegal immigration, and climate change. Form B also included items on legalization of marijuana, property taxes and school spending, and expansion of school vouchers.

The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 45% Republican, 44% Democratic, and 9% independent. The partisan makeup of the sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 30% Republican, 29% Democratic, and 41% independent.

Since January 2020, the long-term partisan balance, including those who lean to a party, in the Marquette poll has been 45% Republican and 44 % Democratic, with 9% independent. Partisanship excluding those who lean has been 30% Republican and 28% Democratic, with 41% independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.

MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll national survey finds little evidence that partisan motivation to vote in the 2022 elections has been altered by the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, which had established a right to an abortion. There has been much speculation that this June decision, in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, would change the November outlook.

Yet a comparison of the Marquette Law School Poll’s May and July national survey data finds few elements of change in motivation to vote or in vote choice, despite a substantial drop in public approval of the Court’s handling of its job and a majority of the public opposed to the Court’s decision in Dobbs.

Approval of the Supreme Court’s job performance fell to 38% in July, down from 44% in May and 54% in March. In July, 36% favored the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade and 64% opposed that decision, among those with an opinion. (Those particular and certain other data about public views of the Court from this July survey were released yesterday, July 20, and can be found on the Marquette Law School Poll website; this release provides further results of the same survey on national topics.)

However, whether measured by enthusiasm about voting in November or the certainty of voting, there has been only a slight overall change in motivation among registered voters, as shown in Table 1. (All results in the tables are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.)

Table 1: Enthusiasm about voting and certainty of voting, among registered voters, May-July 2022

(a) Enthusiasm about voting in November

Poll dates	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
5/9-19/22	43	32	19	6
7/5-12/22	45	26	22	7

(b) Certainty to vote in November

Poll dates	Absolutely certain to vote	Very likely to vote	Chances are 50-50	Don’t think will vote
5/9-19/22	63	18	16	2
7/5-12/22	65	16	12	7

The latest Marquette Law School Poll Supreme Court survey was conducted July 5-12, 2022, shortly after the last decisions of the October 2021 Supreme Court term were released. The survey interviewed 1,003 adults nationwide and has a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. The sample includes 853 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points.

The July results show that Republicans have slightly increased their advantage over Democrats in enthusiasm and projected turnout, compared to May, as shown in Table 2. In July, the percentage of Republicans very enthusiastic to vote rose 8 percentage points, while enthusiasm rose 3 percentage points among Democrats. Similarly, the percentage saying they are certain to vote in November rose 5 percentage points among Republicans but 2 percentage points among Democrats.

The enthusiasm gap between the parties is a substantial 18-percentage-point Republican advantage, while the certainty of voting shows a smaller 5-point Republican edge.

Table 2: Enthusiasm about voting and certainty of voting, by party identification, among registered voters, May-July 2022

(a) Enthusiasm about voting in November

Party ID	Poll dates	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
Republican	5/9-19/22	55	31	12	1
Republican	7/5-12/22	63	25	10	2
Independent	5/9-19/22	34	28	26	12
Independent	7/5-12/22	33	23	33	11
Democrat	5/9-19/22	42	37	19	2
Democrat	7/5-12/22	45	31	17	7

(b) Certainty to vote in November

Party ID	Poll dates	Absolutely certain to vote	Very likely to vote	Chances are 50-50	Don’t think will vote
Republican	5/9-19/22	72	18	9	1
Republican	7/5-12/22	77	11	9	3
Independent	5/9-19/22	51	20	24	4
Independent	7/5-12/22	50	21	16	13
Democrat	5/9-19/22	70	15	14	1
Democrat	7/5-12/22	72	14	10	2

There is also little change in enthusiasm or certainty of voting based on whether the respondent favors or opposes the Supreme Court decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, as shown in Table 3. Among either those in favor or those opposed to overturning Roe, there was no change between May and July in the percentage who are very enthusiastic about voting. There were a very small increase in certainty of voting for those in favor of overturning Roe and a slight decline in certainty to vote for those opposed to overturning Roe.

Leaving aside the change: By either measure, enthusiasm or certainty of voting, those who favor the decision to overturn Roe are more motivated to vote in the fall elections.

Table 3: Enthusiasm about voting and certainty of voting, by favor or oppose overturning Roe v. Wade, among registered voters, May-July 2022

(a) Enthusiasm about voting in November

Overturn Roe	Poll dates	Very enthusiastic	Somewhat enthusiastic	Not too enthusiastic	Not at all enthusiastic
Favor overturn Roe	5/9-19/22	60	28	10	2
Favor overturn Roe	7/5-12/22	60	19	18	3
Oppose overturn Roe	5/9-19/22	40	32	22	5
Oppose overturn Roe	7/5-12/22	40	28	23	9

(b) Certainty to vote in November

Overturn Roe	Poll dates	Absolutely certain to vote	Very likely to vote	Chances are 50-50	Don’t think will vote
Favor overturn Roe	5/9-19/22	74	14	11	0
Favor overturn Roe	7/5-12/22	76	13	6	4
Oppose overturn Roe	5/9-19/22	66	20	11	2
Oppose overturn Roe	7/5-12/22	63	16	13	8

Those saying abortion is one of the most important issues increased by only 3 percentage points from May to July, as shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Importance of the abortion issue, among registered voters, May-July 2022

Poll dates	One of the most important issues	Somewhat important	Not very important	Not important at all
5/9-19/22	41	39	15	5
7/5-12/22	44	38	13	5

There were similarly small changes by partisanship, as shown in Table 5. Democrats are much more likely to rate abortion as one of the most important issues than are Republicans and independents, but there has been little change in opinion on importance of the issue since May.

Table 5: Importance of the abortion issue, by party identification, among registered voters, May-July 2022

Party ID	Poll dates	One of the most important issues	Somewhat important	Not very important	Not important at all
Republican	5/9-19/22	35	40	16	9
Republican	7/5-12/22	37	41	17	6
Independent	5/9-19/22	38	39	18	4
Independent	7/5-12/22	40	38	16	5
Democrat	5/9-19/22	50	39	9	2
Democrat	7/5-12/22	54	35	8	3

A bare majority, statistically rounded to 50%, say they would vote for a candidate who favors keeping abortion legal, while 33% would vote for a candidate who favors strictly limiting abortion and 17% say the abortion issue would not matter to them. Table 6 shows little change in vote choice based on the abortion issue from May to July.

Table 6: Vote based on candidate abortion position, among registered voters, May-July 2022

Poll dates	The candidate who favors keeping abortion legal	The candidate who favors strictly limiting abortion	The abortion issue would not matter to me
5/9-19/22	54	32	14
7/5-12/22	50	33	17

Table 7 shows that vote preference has remained divided but stable, among partisan groups, while independents have become somewhat less supportive of candidates who support abortion rights, from May to July.

Table 7: Vote based on candidate abortion position, by party identification, among registered voters, May-July 2022

Party ID	Poll dates	The candidate who favors keeping abortion legal	The candidate who favors strictly limiting abortion	The abortion issue would not matter to me
Republican	5/9-19/22	20	61	19
Republican	7/5-12/22	18	62	21
Independent	5/9-19/22	59	26	15
Independent	7/5-12/22	44	35	21
Democrat	5/9-19/22	83	11	5
Democrat	7/5-12/22	84	8	8

Preferences on abortion policy

Asked their preference for policy on abortion, 28% say abortion should be legal in all cases, 36% say legal in most cases, 27% say it should be illegal in most cases, and 8% say illegal in all cases. Here and in subsequent tables, the results are for all adults, rather than for only registered voters as above in discussing motivation to vote and vote choice.

Those who say abortion should be legal in all cases or who say it should be illegal in all cases are the most likely to say it is one of the most important issues to them, while those saying legal in most or illegal in most cases are both half as likely (as the “all” groups) to say it is one of the most important issues. The relationship between policy preference and importance of the issue is shown in Table 8.

Table 8: Importance of abortion issue, by policy preference on abortion, among adults, July 2022

Policy on abortion	One of the most important issues	Somewhat important	Not very important	Not important at all
Legal in all cases	63	30	4	3
Legal in most cases	31	46	17	5
Illegal in most cases	30	44	18	7
Illegal in all cases	64	27	3	3

There has been little change in preference for abortion policy by party identification since Roe was overturned on June 24. Table 9 shows policy preference, by partisan groups, in May and July. A majority of Republicans say it should be illegal in all or most cases, while majorities of independents and Democrats say it should be legal in all or most cases, with an especially large majority among Democrats. Support for legal abortion declined by 10 percentage points among independents from May to July.

Table 9: Policy preference on abortion, by party identification, among adults, May-July 2022

Party ID	Poll dates	Legal in all cases	Legal in most cases	Illegal in most cases	Illegal in all cases
Republican	5/9-19/22	12	27	46	15
Republican	7/5-12/22	11	23	47	18
Independent	5/9-19/22	30	42	20	7
Independent	7/5-12/22	24	38	30	7
Democrat	5/9-19/22	45	42	9	4
Democrat	7/5-12/22	48	44	7	1

Policy preferences are sensitive to the specific limitations proposed on abortion. Several state legislatures have enacted or debated laws that would ban abortions (with some exceptions) at various stages of pregnancy. The survey asked a series of questions about support for or opposition to bans along the lines of these state proposals. Each question included an exception for “medical emergencies.”

The question asked:

Here are some limits on when during pregnancy an abortion might be banned, except in cases of medical emergencies, that some states are considering. How much do you favor or oppose each of these proposals?

The results for the five alternative policies presented are shown in Table 10. There is majority opposition to a ban at all times (“any time during pregnancy” in table) or a ban after 6 weeks, and an even divide on a ban after 15 weeks. A majority favor a ban after six months, and a majority oppose abortions being legal at all times (“No restrictions at any point” in table). None of the differences between May and July are statistically significant.

Table 10: Favor or oppose abortion bans, by when ban would take effect, among adults, May-July 2022

Ban when	Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
Ban at any time during pregnancy	5/9-19/22	27	72
Ban at any time during pregnancy	7/5-12/22	30	69
Ban after 6 weeks	5/9-19/22	34	65
Ban after 6 weeks	7/5-12/22	40	59
Ban after 15 weeks	5/9-19/22	50	49
Ban after 15 weeks	7/5-12/22	53	46
Ban after 6 months	5/9-19/22	65	35
Ban after 6 months	7/5-12/22	66	33
No restrictions at any point	5/9-19/22	39	60
No restrictions at any point	7/5-12/22	41	58

Some states have considered legislation that would make it illegal for a woman to have an abortion by traveling to a different state where abortion is legal. This policy is favored by 21% of respondents and is opposed by 78%. There has been little change on this, as shown in Table 11.

Table 11: Should states be able to make out-of-state travel for abortion illegal, responses among adults, May-July 2022

Poll dates	Yes	No
5/9-19/22	22	78
7/5-12/22	21	78

Majorities of all partisan groups say states should not be able to restrict out-of-state travel to obtain abortions. There has been little change in opinion on this issue among partisan groups from May to July, as shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Should states be able to make out-of-state travel for abortion illegal, by party identification, among adults, May-July 2022

Party ID	Poll dates	Yes	No
Republican	5/9-19/22	34	66
Republican	7/5-12/22	31	69
Independent	5/9-19/22	18	81
Independent	7/5-12/22	20	80
Democrat	5/9-19/22	15	85
Democrat	7/5-12/22	16	84

The potential for states to make it illegal to get and fill prescriptions from out-of-state providers for medication that induces an abortion is favored by 26% and opposed by 73%. This question was not asked previously.

As with out-of-state travel for abortions, this possible legal restriction shows a sharp divide by party, as seen in Table 13, though a majority of each partisan group oppose such restrictions.

Table 13: Should a state be able to make it illegal for a woman to get and fill a prescription from out-of-state providers for medication that will induce an abortion, by party identification, among adults, July 2022

Party ID	Yes	No
Republican	41	58
Independent	27	73
Democrat	13	87

January 6 Committee hearings

Among adults, 43% say they have heard a lot about the January 6 Committee hearings, 38% have heard a little, and 19% have heard nothing at all. For comparison, 81% have heard a lot about the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, and 47% have heard a lot about the Court’s ruling that the Second Amendment includes the right to possess a firearm outside the home.

Table 14 shows that Democrats have been more attentive to the January 6 Committee hearings than have Republicans or independents, though a large majority of each group has heard at least “a little.”

Table 14: Heard about January 6 Committee hearings, by party identification, among adults, July 2022

Party ID	A lot	A little	Nothing at all
Republican	35	48	17
Independent	37	38	25
Democrat	56	32	12

Fifty-two percent say that former President Donald Trump bears “a lot” of responsibility for the violence on January 6, while 18% say “a little” and 30% say he has no responsibility at all for the violence. Those who have heard a lot about the January 6 Committee hearings say Trump is more responsible than do those who have heard little or nothing about the hearings, as shown in Table 15.

Table 15: Trump responsibility for January 6 violence, by amount heard about the January 6 Committee hearings, among adults, July 2022

Heard about Jan. 6 Committee	A lot of responsibility	A little responsibility	None at all
A lot	68	9	22
A little or none	40	25	35

While partisans differ in their attention to the hearings, and in their views of Trump, those who have heard a lot about the hearings assign greater responsibility for violence to Trump than do those who have heard less, though the partisan gap remains very large, as shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Trump responsibility for January 6 violence, by amount heard about the January 6 Committee hearings and by party identification, among adults, July 2022

Party ID	Heard about Jan. 6 Committee	A lot of responsibility	A little responsibility	None at all
Republican	A lot	17	26	57
Republican	A little or none	6	26	68
Independent	A lot	66	7	27
Independent	A little or none	39	32	30
Democrat	A lot	95	3	0
Democrat	A little or none	81	10	10

The public is evenly divided on the evidence presented by the January 6 Committee, with 52% saying it has been convincing and 48% saying it has not been convincing. Partisan differences are quite large in this case, as shown in Table 17.

Table 17: Has evidence presented in January 6 Committee hearings been convincing, by party identification, among adults, July 2022

Party ID	Has been convincing	Has not been convincing
Republican	15	85
Independent	49	50
Democrat	83	16

As with views of Trump’s responsibility, those who have heard a lot about the hearings are more likely to say the evidence is convincing, in every partisan group, though the partisan differences remain large, as shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Has evidence presented in January 6 Committee hearings been convincing, by party identification and by how much heard about hearings, among adults, July 2022

Party ID	Heard about Jan. 6 Committee	Has been convincing	Has not been convincing
Republican	A lot	21	79
Republican	A little or none	12	88
Independent	A lot	65	35
Independent	A little or none	40	60
Democrat	A lot	95	4
Democrat	A little or none	68	32

There has been little net change in favorability ratings of Trump since the hearings began. In July, 34% had a favorable view of Trump, compared to 35% who were favorable in May. There is little difference in favorability among partisans based on how much they have heard of the hearings, though independents who have heard a lot are somewhat less favorable to Trump as shown in Table 19.

Table 19: Favorable or unfavorable opinions of Donald Trump, by party identification and by how much heard about January 6 Committee hearings, among adults, July 2022

Party ID	Heard about Jan. 6 Committee	Favorable opinion	Unfavorable opinion	Haven’t heard enough
Republican	A lot	80	20	1
Republican	A little or none	81	15	4
Independent	A lot	23	76	1
Independent	A little or none	31	60	9
Democrat	A lot	3	95	1
Democrat	A little or none	9	88	2

Thirty-four percent in July say they would like Trump to run again for president, little changed from 33% in May.

Biden job approval

Approval of how President Joe Biden is handling his job as president has declined in July to 36%, down from 42% in May. This is the lowest approval for Biden in the Marquette Law School Poll national surveys. The full trend of Biden approval is shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Approval of Biden job performance, among adults, July 2021-July 2022

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
7/16-26/21	58	42
9/7-16/21	48	52
11/1-10/21	49	51
1/10-21/22	46	53
3/14-24/22	44	55
5/9-19/22	42	57
7/5-12/22	36	64

Biden has seen approval ratings decline among Democrats and especially among independents, while Republicans have maintained high levels of disapproval.

Table 21: Approval of Biden job performance, by party identification, among adults, July 2021-July 2022

Party ID	Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
Republican	7/16-26/21	16	84
Republican	9/7-16/21	9	90
Republican	11/1-10/21	17	82
Republican	1/10-21/22	9	91
Republican	3/14-24/22	8	92
Republican	5/9-19/22	7	92
Republican	7/5-12/22	3	96
Independent	7/16-26/21	57	43
Independent	9/7-16/21	43	57
Independent	11/1-10/21	43	57
Independent	1/10-21/22	42	57
Independent	3/14-24/22	37	63
Independent	5/9-19/22	40	59
Independent	7/5-12/22	25	74
Democrat	7/16-26/21	96	3
Democrat	9/7-16/21	89	11
Democrat	11/1-10/21	83	16
Democrat	1/10-21/22	83	17
Democrat	3/14-24/22	86	13
Democrat	5/9-19/22	78	21
Democrat	7/5-12/22	75	25

Biden’s approval rating has also declined among white, Black, and Hispanic respondents, as shown in Table 22. The table demonstrates a steady decline among white and Black respondents since July 2021. Among Hispanic respondents, approval remained relatively stable until this survey, dropping sharply in July 2022, to 37%.

Table 22: Approval of Biden job performance, by race and Hispanic origin, among adults, July 2021-July 2022

Race and Hispanic origin	Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove
White	7/16-26/21	50	50
White	9/7-16/21	40	60
White	11/1-10/21	41	58
White	1/10-21/22	40	60
White	3/14-24/22	40	60
White	5/9-19/22	34	65
White	7/5-12/22	31	68
Black	7/16-26/21	88	10
Black	9/7-16/21	74	26
Black	11/1-10/21	68	32
Black	1/10-21/22	57	41
Black	3/14-24/22	56	43
Black	5/9-19/22	59	41
Black	7/5-12/22	51	49
Hispanic	7/16-26/21	56	44
Hispanic	9/7-16/21	54	46
Hispanic	11/1-10/21	51	49
Hispanic	1/10-21/22	56	43
Hispanic	3/14-24/22	51	48
Hispanic	5/9-19/22	56	41
Hispanic	7/5-12/22	37	63

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted July 5-12, 2022, interviewing 1,003 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available at https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/results-and-data/.