How zoning reform could reverse population loss in many Milwaukee neighborhoods

Lots of people want to live in Washington Heights—the Milwaukee neighborhood sandwiched between Washington Park to the east and Wauwatosa to the west. The median home price grew by $92,000 (53%) from 2019 to 2023, nearly double the citywide increase of $48,000.[i] Average rents grew by 16% in the past two years alone, double the national increase of 8%.[ii] Despite this, Washington Heights is shrinking. The neighborhood’s population fell from 7,200 in 2000 to 6,741 in 2010 and 6,360 in 2020. That is a 12% drop in 20 years. The reasons are not complicated. The number of households has stayed about the same, but the average household size has fallen from 2.47 in 2000 to 2.36 in 2010 and 2.22 in 2020. Families are having fewer children, and more adults are living alone. Imagine a typical block with 32 single-family homes (16 lots on each side of the street). In 2000, that block had 79 residents, it had 76 in 2010, and 71 in 2020. Across many blocks, these small changes add up quickly. Milwaukee’s lack of affordable, quality housing for low income residents is a central focus among local policymakers, funders, and nonprofits. The situation in Washington Heights, a solidly middle class neighborhood, points to a different, but related dilemma. Even in neighborhoods where would-be residents can afford the cost to build new housing, adequate supply simply doesn’t exist, and current land use regulations inhibit its construction. This lack of supply has cascading effects. Equity from rapidly increasing home values may please existing homeowners, but it also saddles them with higher property taxes. The long term decline in the number of adult residents means fewer people are responsible for funding the same amount of infrastructure. People who are priced out of buying or renting in one neighborhood instead turn to a cheaper one, repeating the same pattern of displacement at a lower income bracket. Washington Heights’ housing stock today is little changed from the early 20th century. Only 6 houses have been built in the neighborhood since 1960 (likely replacing older houses). Meanwhile, the net number of housing units has slowly shrunk. Since 1990, the neighborhood has lost 45 units, thanks to duplexes being downgraded to single family homes.[iii] (Only 3 single family homes have been converted to duplexes.) [iv] Looking further back, the change is even more astonishing. Milwaukee’s population hit its peak in 1960, when 741,000 people lived within city limits. To compare how neighborhoods have changed since then, I matched 2020 census blocks with the larger 1960 census tracts. Click here to access an interactive map showing how every census tract’s population changed between 1960 and 2020. Consider the greater Washington Heights area, outlined in blue on the map below. (1960 tracts rarely exactly match current neighborhood boundaries.) This area had a 1960 population of 15,635 people living in households.[v] That fell by 31%, to about 10,800 in 2020. The average household size fell from 2.9 to 2.2. The number of children declined by nearly 2,000…

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When it Comes to Pollution, How Much is Too Much?

The late Justice Crooks once wrote for a majority of the Wisconsin Supreme Court that “general standards are common in environmental statues . . . [and] the fact that [they] are broad standards does not make them non-existent ones.” That principle is about to be tested in both the United States Supreme Court and the Wisconsin Supreme Court. General standards (or, as their opponents often call them, vague standards) may be “common in environmental statutes,” but they are also becoming extremely controversial, as demonstrated in a pair of current cases. The first is a federal matter, City and County of San Francisco v. Environmental Protection Agency, in which the United States Supreme Court granted certiorari on May 28. The case concerns regulatory agencies’ authority under the Clean Water Act (CWA) to issue “narrative” standards, or statements that describe a water quality goal when numeric standards are too difficult to quantify. The permit provision at issue prohibits a wastewater treatment facility from “causing or contributing to” a violation of water quality standards, and from discharging substances that “create pollution, contamination, or nuisance.” The appellant municipalities say those standards are too vague, because they create no specific numerical requirements that provide a yardstick as to when the water has been sufficiently treated to avoid running afoul of the CWA—no way to know “how much is too much” pollution. In other words, the argument is that the municipalities cannot design treatment technologies without more definite standards. Last term in Sackett v. Environmental Protection Agency, the Court struck down EPA’s broad interpretation of the term “waters of the United States” in the CWA, sharply curtailing the agency’s authority to regulate discharges into wetlands. And in the meantime, the court overruled its longstanding principle of deferring to agencies’ legal interpretations of statutory terms, known as Chevron deference. Together, those decisions may not bode well for EPA’s position in the San Francisco case. The Wisconsin Supreme Court’s endorsement of “general” standards described at the beginning of this post came in response to a challenge of the Department of Natural Resources’ general authority under the Wisconsin statutes and the public trust doctrine to “protect, maintain and improve” the waters of the state. In the case, Lake Beulah Management District v. DNR, the court held that the DNR could rely on general legislative grants of authority such as that to place conditions on permits issued for the operation of high-capacity wells. The court reached a similar conclusion a decade later in 2021, in two decisions relating to DNR’s authority to regulate Concentrated Animal Feeding Operations and high-capacity wells, both captioned Clean Wisconsin v. DNR. In the Clean Wisconsin cases, the court held that agency authority that is stated in broad terms nevertheless qualifies as actionable, “explicit” authority within the meaning of Wis. Stat. § 227.10(2m), which prohibits the agency from implementing or enforcing a permit condition not “explicitly required or explicitly permitted” by statute or by rule. That position will be tested again should the court accept the…

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The 2024 Wisconsin Assembly Races are the Most Contested in a Decade

This post was updated on July 25th to add 3 contested GOP Assembly primaries. The state legislative districts Wisconsin adopted in February 2024 bear little resemblance to the maps used previously. As I wrote at the time, the new map is more competitive: there are more seats either party could win, and those seats will determine who controls both chambers. It is also more contested. The number of districts drawing a candidate from both parties, and the number of party primaries drawing multiple candidates are both unusually high. The contested nature of the new districts is the subject of this blog post. Voters in 82 Assembly districts (out of 99) will be able to choose between a Democrat and a Republican in November 2024. That is the highest number since at least 2010. In 2022, just 73 districts featured a candidate from both major parties. The situation in the State Senate is different. Only 11 (of 16) races offer both a Democrat and a Republican. That is down from 12 (out of 17) in 2022. Seats contested by both partiesWisconsin State Legislatureassemblysenate201068152012721020144714201650820186113202079112022731220248211 Under the new map, many legislators found themselves living in new districts—sometimes along with other sitting incumbents. This big shakeup creates a lot of opportunities for contested primaries. To see how this primary season compares to past years, I collected the election results from each August partisan primary beginning in 2012. Here are the results. Given that there are 99 Assembly districts, there can be a total of 198 Democratic or Republican contested primaries. In 2024, there will be 46, up from 31 in 2022, 25 in 2020, and 17 in 2018. The last time we saw more contested primaries was 2012, when 45 featured at least two candidates. The number of contested Republican primaries in 2024 is 2 more than in 2022. But the number of contested Democratic primaries grew from 8 in 2022 to 21 in 2024. Fewer State Senate races feature competitive primaries. Out of 16 seats (32 potential primaries), only 4 are contested, 2 for each party. This is down from 7 in 2022 and 8 in 2020. Most Wisconsinites live in a district that leans quite strongly toward one party or the other, so the partisan primary is often the most consequential state legislative race available to these voters. I was curious how many districts feature a contested primary from either party. By this measure, 2024 is record setting, at least since 2012. Forty-five districts offer at least one contested Assembly primary. The next highest year is 2012, when 39 districts did so. About 60,000 people live in each district, so roughly 960,000 more Wisconsin residents live in a district with a competitive primary in 2024 than two years ago. Compared to 2018, 1.68 million more Wisconsinites live somewhere with a contested Assembly primary. Of the 21 contested Democratic primaries, 9 are in southeastern Wisconsin (7 in Milwaukee County), and another 7 are in the greater Madison metro. Two are near Eau Claire,…

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