Where Americans Choose to Move and Where They Leave: Domestic Migration from 2020 to 2024

Patterns of domestic migration—where people who already live in America choose to move—reveals a lot about where people do or don’t want to live. Or, framed differently, where they can and can’t afford to. This map shows the cumulative domestic migration of each US county, from 2020 to 2024.

The darkest green color shows places where the (net) number of people who’ve moved in since 2020 is equal to 10% or more of the population in 2020. The darkest purple color shows the reverse. In those counties the net number of people who’ve moved out is equal to 10% of the 2020 population. This only includes people who moved from one place in the United States to another, not people who moved into or out of the country.

Because this map shows net migration, a place where a roughly equal number of people move in and out—like a college town—won’t feature prominently.

map showing US counties shaded corresponding to their net domestic migration from 2020 to 2024

There are six times as many dark green counties as dark purple ones. A few counties are experiencing intense in-migration, while a lot of counties are seeing a small out-migration.

Some of the patterns seem to follow state boundaries, but more commonly they reflect urban agglomerations or ecological regions.

In fact, I was surprised by the extent to which certain ecological regions correspond to the patterns on this map. The next version of the map shows a few of the patterns that most stood out to me. I highlighted certain regions, like the Ozarks, by identifying the counties included in specific EPA Level III ecoregions. (Follow that link to see official maps of Level I, II, III, and IV ecoregions. They are fascinating).

I placed a county into one of these regions if its mean population weighted center in the 2020 census fell inside the region.

map, with regions outlined and annotated, showing US counties shaded corresponding to their net domestic migration from 2020 to 2024

Rural Northern Tier Winners

Three pockets of growth dot the northern perimeter of the lower 48. Each is in a very different rural area.

The Upper Rockies

These are the 41 counties lying mostly inside of the following ecoregions: Northern Rockies, Canadian Rockies, Middle Rockies, and Idaho Batholith. Mostly, these are in Idaho and western Montana, but some stretch into northeastern Washington and a few disconnected pockets stretch all the way to extreme western South Dakota. Since 2020, these counties have gained about 99,000 net new residents who previously lived elsewhere in the country. That’s equal to 6.0% of the region’s total population in 2020.

The Northwoods

The “Laurentian Mixed Forest Province” (as it is also known) is a single ecoregion stretching from Minnesota’s iron range, through northern Wisconsin, across the entire Upper Peninsula, and into the northern half of Michigan’s lower peninsula. This whole area is scarcely populated: Duluth is the largest city. But since 2020, 56,000 more people have moved in than out of these 65 counties, equal to 3.3% of the population in the last census. This sets the Northwoods apart from pretty much everywhere else in the rural Midwest.

Rural New England

I’m using “rural” in an expansive sense. These are the 46 counties in New England’s six counties which lie outside of a combined statistical area. Since 2020, they’ve added 86,000 residents thanks to domestic migration, equal to 2.0% of their starting population. Notice that the New England counties located inside CSAs have fared less well. Nor have migrants flocked to nearby rural upstate New York.

Perhaps rural New England, the Northwoods of the Upper Midwest, and the northern Rockies are all benefiting from increased access to remote work in recent years. The absolute numbers of people moving to these regions are small, compared with some of the other regions we’ll discuss shortly. But because their populations were so low to begin with, the influx of new residents is enough to make a big different proportionally.

The Sunbelt is Still Hot

The biggest hotspots for domestic movers are in the American South. Many of these cross state lines in ways that follow ecoregions.

The Piedmont / Southern Appalachia

One such region covers portions of the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, Kentucky, and nearly all of Tennessee. The sprawling area (340 counties) basically corresponds to the ecoregion comprising Appalachia south of Virginia (the Blue Ridge Mountains, Southwestern Appalachians, Ridge and Valley) along with the plateaus to their east (the Piedmont) and west (the Interior Plateau). 974,000 more Americans moved into this region than out of it from 2020 to 2024, equal to 3.3% of the 2020 population.

Notice that I do make an artificial alteration to the ecoregion boundaries: cutting several off at the southern border of Virginia. Virginia displays its own pattern of migration growth, concentrated on the DC metro.

The Southern Coastal Plain

Florida’s appeal to domestic movers is legendary, and that’s most of what is happening in this region. But it turns out the counties attracting the most growth correspond even more closely to the boundaries of the Southern Coastal Plain ecoregion than they do to the state lines. Notice how the southern tip of Florida (a different ecoregion) had negative net migration, while Florida’s growth regions extend seamlessly along the Georgia and South Carolina coasts which are part of the same ecoregion. The 76 counties in the Southern Coastal Plain region added 1.17 million residents, equal to 7.1% of the 2020 population.

The Texas Triangle

The Texas Triangle isn’t any kind of official region, so you can define it different ways. I drew a concave hull around the combined statistical areas for Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio. Basically, it contains the biggest metros in Texas and everything in between them. All told, these 103 counties gained 804,000 net domestic movers, equal to 3.5% of the population.

The Greater Ozarks

This one surprised me the most. As a kid, I often visited my grandparents in Yellville, Arkansas, deep in the Ozark Mountains. The whole region seemed beautiful but sleepy. Evidently, that has changed. The Ozarks, and their surrounding ecoregions, grew considerably. This region of growth extends across several states. It includes the Ozark Highlands, Boston Mountains, Arkansas Valley, and Ouachita Mountains. From 2020 to 2024, these 92 counties gained 143,000 people from net domestic migration, worth 3.5% of the 2020 population.

Some Losers

Most of the places with more out-movers than in-movers only lost a very small fraction of their population. But a few regions stand out with more serious losses.

The Lower Mississippi

The Mississippi Alluvial Plain extends from the river’s confluence with the Ohio in southern Illinois all the way to its mouth in the Gulf of Mexico. Nearly all of these 58 counties lose more movers than they gain. In total, the region lost 116,000 people, or 5.0% of its population to net domestic migration from 2020 to 2024. Losses were even more severe (proportionally speaking) in the core of the region, the Mississippi Delta.

The 100th Meridian West

The 100th Meridian is notorious on the Great Plains as the location beyond which, it is often said, growing crops becomes impractical without irrigation. While making this map, I was struck by the vertical streak of population loss corresponding to the area immediately west of this line. The vertical region I’ve drawn is simply those counties lying mostly within the 100th and 103rd meridians (and outside of the Texas Triangle or Upper Rockies). This is basically the width of Oklahoma panhandle, extended north  to Canada and south to Mexico. Collectively, the region’s 166 scarcely populated counties have only lost 45,000 people to domestic migration (1.9% of the population), but it includes counties with losses of 10% or more.

California

Finally, any discussion of net migration has to mention the county’s most populous state: California. From 2020 to 2024, 1.47 million more people moved from California to elsewhere in the United States than from a different state into California. That outflow is equal to 3.7% of the state’s 2020 population.

Continue ReadingWhere Americans Choose to Move and Where They Leave: Domestic Migration from 2020 to 2024

Milwaukee’s Baby Bust Hit New Lows in 2025

The fewest babies on record were born to Milwaukee mothers in 2025, according to preliminary vital statistics records.

As of January 5th, the state’s vital statistics database shows 7,343 Milwaukee births in 2025. Based on the reporting pattern in previous years, I estimate that the total number of 2025 births will stand at about 7,386 after the last records trickle in.[i]

This is a 5.0% decline from 2024, when 7,774 babies were born to Milwaukee moms. It is a 15.0% decline since 2020 and a 28.7% decline since 2010.

line graph showing the number of babies born to Milwaukee mothers, 1990 to 2025

Births are only one component of population puzzle. Each year, people of all ages move both in and out of Milwaukee. But the number of births is the first ingredient of our future population, and the number of babies born has ripple effects in every following year. For example, in a response (at least partly) to declining demand, one large Milwaukee hospital stopped delivering babies altogether in 2022.

The drop in births throughout the 2010s also explains why Milwaukee’s population loss in the 2020 census was so surprising. The 2020 census came in well below what projections based on administrative data predicted. Those projections used birth and death records collected at the county level, and they estimated the county’s overall population accurately. The problem was that the Census Bureau model allocated births to each municipality based on patterns from the 2010 census, when, in fact, the share of babies born in the suburbs grew, relative to the city: a fact independently confirmed by both the 2020 census and local vital statistics.[ii]

Birth counts quickly affect school enrollments. Milwaukee’s births actually remained steady—even growing a bit—between the late 1990s and the late 2000s. This had a stabilizing effect on school enrollments, benefiting each sector of the city’s fragmented school system. There were actually more first graders attending a Milwaukee school in the 2014-15 school year than in 2005-06.

Then enrollment began to fall. The Great Recession, accompanied by an extreme mortgage foreclosure crisis in Milwaukee, coincided with a sharp drop in births. Newborn counts fell from 11,457 in 2007 to 9,213 in 2018. By 2023-24, there were 1,500 fewer first graders attending a Milwaukee school than in 2014-15.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, births dropped by 14.5% from 2019 to 2022. This was nearly three times the statewide decline of 5.1% over this period, so the drop in Milwaukee likely reflects prospective parents leaving the city in addition to couples putting off having a kid. Supporting this, census data shows a net outflow of 15,800 people leaving Milwaukee in the year ending July 1, 2021. Things improved after that, and net migration actually turned slightly positive in the year ending July 1, 2024, when the city gained about 500 residents in this way.

Mirroring this net migration pattern, births fell most sharply in the calendar years 2020 and 2021, before remaining more stable in 2023 and 2024. The renewed sharp drop in 2025 may indicate a resumption of negative net migration for the city or changes to the age profile and childbearing preferences of existing residents. Some hints might be gleaned from the map of where births have fallen in Milwaukee.

These three maps show, from left to right, the total number of babies born in each City of Milwaukee zip code during 2025, the change from 2024 to 2025, and the change from 2019 to 2025.

maps showing the number of babies born in each zip code and comparing this with 2024 and 2019.

The cumulative effect of Milwaukee’s years-long run of declining births is large. As we begin 2026, 39,210 babies were born in Milwaukee over the past 5 years. At the beginning of 2020, that number was 46,345. Here are some final thoughts:

  • There is no sign that Milwaukee’s baby bust has bottomed out. Two years ago, I thought it might have, but the latest data points toward continued declines of several hundred babies each year.
  • Schools across all sectors will face declining enrollment for the foreseeable future, with each cohort likely being smaller than the last.
  • While it is true that fertility rates are declining nearly everywhere, I think the rapidity (and location) of Milwaukee’s baby bust points to out-migration of prospective parents as a large factor. Much of this could be solved if more young couples felt Milwaukee was a good place to raise a family. In general, in Milwaukee’s healthiest and safest neighborhoods, the baby bust is either small or not happening at all.

[i] In the last couple years, a little over half of one percent of birth records were still outstanding by the following January 5th.

[ii] The Census Bureau Population Estimates Program uses vital statistics and modeled migration data to estimate county-level population. It then allocated the county-level population into municipalities based on the number of housing units in each (another tracked metric) and the average household size in the previous decennial census. In Milwaukee, the city’s average household size actually fell from 2.5 in 2010 to 2.39 in 2020, while in the Milwaukee County suburbs, the average household size stayed about the same.

Continue ReadingMilwaukee’s Baby Bust Hit New Lows in 2025

The Odds of Jury Duty

How likely am I to be called for jury duty? If called, how likely am I to actually be seated for a trial? Do jurors represent a true cross-section of the population? I have wondered about all these questions, and, recently, I came across a report from Milwaukee County Circuit Court making it possible to answer them.

I’ll cut to the chase. If you live in Milwaukee County, your annual odds of receiving a summons for jury duty are either 0 or 1-in-4, depending on your situation. But, assuming you are eligible to be a juror, your odds of actually becoming one are roughly 1-in-100. And while the pool from which jurors are summoned closely matches the demographics of Milwaukee County as a whole, the people who actually show up for jury duty are not so representative.

Odds of Jury Service, from Initial Summons to Sworn Juror

sankey diagram showing the outcomes of those summoned for jury duty in Milwaukee County Circuit Court during 2024

To calculate the odds of receiving a juror summons, we must first subtract the number of people who completed jury duty in the past four years because, in Milwaukee, those people are exempt from service. Last year, the court issued 127,057 summonses, but only 46,199 (36%) of them resulted in someone completing jury duty. Assuming these numbers remain constant, in any given year, about 127,000 summonses will be issued to a pool of about 500,000 people. In other words, if you’re eligible for jury duty, you have a 25% chance of receiving a summons each year. Once you’ve served, you won’t get another summons for at least 4 years.

Receiving a summons is no strong indication that you’ll wind up serving. Of the 127,000 summons issued in 2024, only about 18,000 resulted in somebody actually having to appear for jury duty. In 28,000 cases, the juror was available but their service was cancelled. In the remaining cases, the juror was ineligible or unavailable to serve, the most common reasons being postponement of service (29,300) or non-response (26,200).

If you’re part of the 14% of people receiving a jury summons who actually find themselves sitting in the waiting room at the Courthouse, the odds are good you’ll be sent to a courtroom for voir dire (the legal term for actual jury selection). In 2024, 16,927 people were sent to one of 524 voir dires (it’s possible some people participated in more than one voir dire proceeding). Of those, 72% were questioned and 36% were chosen to be a sworn juror.

To sum it all up, if you haven’t had jury duty for four years, there is about a 25% chance you’ll get a summons next year. If you do get a summons, there is a roughly 36% chance you’ll become eligible and available to serve, a 14% chance you’ll actually have to visit the courthouse, and a 5% chance you’ll be placed on a jury.

Jury Pool Demographics

Of course, those probabilities assume each person has an equal likelihood of selection at each stage of the process. This assumption is basically true in the initial draw of people receiving a jury summons, but it is distinctly not true in the second stage, self-response.

Following state law, the Milwaukee Circuit Court draws its jury pool from a list of state ID card holders provided by WisDOT. This is a good system. As I’ve written, nearly all Wisconsin adults have one of these cards.[i] Indeed, Milwaukee County’s master jury list included about 682,000 names in 2024, which was equal to 97% of the county’s estimated adult population of 701,000.

The demographics of the jury master list are about the same as the county’s, as shown in the table below. There are some differences by race, but, as I understand it, these are mostly the consequence of differences between how the Census Bureau and WisDOT measure race and ethnicity.

table comparing demographics of the population with the juror pool

The big discrepancies occur among the 21% of people who receive a jury summons but don’t respond. In 2024, the rate of non-response was 12% for white, 19% for Asian, 30% for Hispanic, 39% for other, and 44% for Black summons recipients. A much smaller number, about 6% of those receiving a summons, were disqualified from service. Asians and Hispanics were the most likely to be disqualified at 32% and 19%, respectively. This likely reflects language barriers. Wisconsin law requires jurors to be fluent English speakers. Prospective white and Black jurors were disqualified at rates of 6% and 3%, respectively.

Given these statistics, efforts to improve the demographic representativeness of Milwaukee’s juries should focus on the reasons why some people don’t respond to their jury summons in the first place. The summons process itself is demonstrably fair.


[i] My analysis compared DOA records with census estimates derived from vital statistics. I estimated that the share of the adult population with a state-issued ID card lies somewhere between 94% and 100%. Those less likely to have an ID include college students, recent movers from out-of-state, 18 and 19 year olds,  and poor people. All else being equal, Black and Asian Wisconsinites are more likely to have an ID than white ones.

Continue ReadingThe Odds of Jury Duty