Political Processes & Rhetoric – Page 55 – Marquette University Law School Faculty Blog

Last Poll Before Election Finds Obama and Baldwin Holding Leads

Post author:Alan J. Borsuk
Post published:October 31, 2012
Post category:Political Processes & Rhetoric Public

The last Marquette Law School Poll before Tuesday’s election puts President Barack Obama ahead of his challenger, Gov. Mitt Romney, by eight points (51% to 43%), according to results released Wednesday at Eckstein Hall. That’s a shift from two weeks earlier when the race was effectively tied (Obama 49%, Romney 48%).

In the US Senate race in Wisconsin, Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin leads Republican former Gov. Tommy Thompson by four points, 47% to 43%, with 10% undecided.

The figures come from a sample of 1,243 people identified as likely voters. The results carry a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points. Telephone polling, including people who use cell phones, was conducted between Oct. 25 and 28.

Senator Ron Johnson Lets Numbers Illustrate His Views in “On the Issues” Visit

Post author:Alan J. Borsuk
Post published:October 24, 2012
Post category:Political Processes & Rhetoric Public Speakers at Marquette

US Senator Ron Johnson let the numbers tell a lot of the story Tuesday during an “On the Issues with Mike Gousha” session at Marquette University Law School.

Numbers showing how the percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) that comes from federal spending, which has risen a lot with projections that it will keep rising. Numbers showing how the gap between projected federal revenue and spending has grown and is forecast to become much bigger. Numbers showing how, in the history of Social Security, the amount collected exceeded the amount spent every year until 2010 but now we’re at the start of a projected long run in which payments are greater than revenue. Numbers showing how steps such as increasing taxes on rich people would do very little to close the gaps in upcoming federal budgets if we stay on the course we’re on. He showed these and other matters as graphs on two large screens in Eckstein Hall’s Appellate Courtroom.

But Johnson also included numbers on some non-economic issues. A chart on the dramatic long-term climb of “births out of wedlock” appeared to spark the most reaction in the audience of about 200. The single-mother birth rate was 6.9% in 1964 and 41% in recent years, Johnson’s chart showed. He called the rise “a very graphic, very harmful unintended consequence of all of our good intentions” in the national War on Poverty, started in the 1960s. Among the factors Johnson said were behind the increase: Public benefits policies that provided unintended incentives for mothers not to get married. As “a compassionate society,” he said, government wanted to help those in need.

Confirmation Bias

Post author:Natalie Fleury
Post published:October 23, 2012
Post category:Negotiation Political Processes & Rhetoric Public

Teaching dispute resolution typically includes making students aware of the many different biases that influence our views of conflicts and our decision making. I’ve been thinking quite a bit about confirmation bias during this election. According to the Oxford Dictionary, confirmation bias is “the tendency to interpret new evidence as confirmation of one’s existing beliefs or theories.” A prime example of this bias in operation during the election cycle is the decision about who won the second Presidential Debate. Republicans tended to state that Romney won, while Democrats typically called the debate in Obama’s favor.

There’s an interesting blog post about this phenomenon and satire on Social Psychology Eye, an associated site for Wiley-Blackwell’s review journal on Social and Personality Psychology. Even though the post is from April 2011, it has some good points to keep in mind in the next few weeks while we’re barraged by negative ads, phone calls, internet ads, etc. One great piece of advice is at the end of the post:

“Here is one tip for overcoming confirmation bias within yourself: When most people do ‘reality testing’ they seek information that confirms their existing views are correct. Instead, try to do the opposite. Try to find evidence that argues against your existing views. It may be uncomfortable, but it can be more likely to lead to information that is accurate rather than just comforting.”