Some Thoughts on the Meaning of a Second Obama Term for Labor and Employment Law

In light of President Obama’s resounding re-election victory last night, and other developments in political races down the ticket, here are some of my initial thoughts on what might happen in the labor and employment law area during a second Obama administration:

First, I think the verdict is still very much out on  whether there will be any significant changes regarding labor and employment legal initiatives in President Obama’s second term.  It is interesting that the President did not spend too much time during the campaign, or in his victory speech last night, discussing worker rights or unions.

On the one hand, the Congress remains bitterly divided between the two parties which means that labor law reform in the form of the Employee Free Choice Act is highly unlikely, as well as updates to the employment discrimination laws, like adding sexual orientation as a protected classification under Title VII or addressing “qualified individuals” under the Americans with Disabilities Act.  I also do not envision major changes to the FMLA or OSHA in a second term, though I suspect there will be additional attempts to amend the Equal Pay Act by trying to get the Paycheck Fairness Act passed.

On the other hand, there will be plenty of room for agency decisionmakers to work on the margins and within their own domains.  

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Last Poll Before Election Finds Obama and Baldwin Holding Leads

The last Marquette Law School Poll before Tuesday’s election puts President Barack Obama ahead of his challenger, Gov. Mitt Romney, by eight points (51% to 43%), according to results released Wednesday at Eckstein Hall. That’s a shift from two weeks earlier when the race was effectively tied (Obama 49%, Romney 48%).

In the US Senate race in Wisconsin, Democratic Rep. Tammy Baldwin leads Republican former Gov. Tommy Thompson by four points, 47% to 43%, with 10% undecided.

The figures come from a sample of 1,243 people identified as likely voters. The results carry a margin of error of 2.8 percentage points. Telephone polling, including people who use cell phones, was conducted between Oct. 25 and 28.

Continue ReadingLast Poll Before Election Finds Obama and Baldwin Holding Leads

Senator Ron Johnson Lets Numbers Illustrate His Views in “On the Issues” Visit

US Senator Ron Johnson let the numbers tell a lot of the story Tuesday during an “On the Issues with Mike Gousha” session at Marquette University Law School.

Numbers showing how the percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) that comes from federal spending, which has risen a lot with projections that it will keep rising. Numbers showing how the gap between projected federal revenue and spending has grown and is forecast to become much bigger. Numbers showing how, in the history of Social Security, the amount collected exceeded the amount spent every year until 2010 but now we’re at the start of a projected long run in which payments are greater than revenue. Numbers showing how steps such as increasing taxes on rich people would do very little to close the gaps in upcoming federal budgets if we stay on the course we’re on. He showed these and other matters as graphs on two large screens in Eckstein Hall’s Appellate Courtroom.

But Johnson also included numbers on some non-economic issues. A chart on the dramatic long-term climb of “births out of wedlock” appeared to spark the most reaction in the audience of about 200. The single-mother birth rate was 6.9% in 1964 and 41% in recent years, Johnson’s chart showed. He called the rise “a very graphic, very harmful unintended consequence of all of our good intentions” in the national War on Poverty, started in the 1960s. Among the factors Johnson said were behind the increase: Public benefits policies that provided unintended incentives for mothers not to get married. As “a compassionate society,” he said, government wanted to help those in need.

Continue ReadingSenator Ron Johnson Lets Numbers Illustrate His Views in “On the Issues” Visit