Disapproval, discontent, and uncertainty: Marquette expert observers describe 2024 election dynamics

On the one hand, “a year is forever in politics,” so don’t panic about where you think the party and candidates you favor are standing this far from the November 2024 national election.

On the other hand, there is a strong prospect of an unprecedented presidential election between Democratic President Joe Biden and Republican former President Donald Trump in a time of great discontent around politics, and standard understandings of political dynamics may not apply.

And some of the things going on politics – such as former Trump Cabinet members becoming opponents and critics of Trump – are not easy to explain.

So the outlook for the 2024 election for president is complex, fascinating, and uncertain, in the view of three nationally respected political observers, each with ties to Marquette University, who took part in an “On the Issues” program Nov. 29, 2023, in the Lubar Center of Marquette Law School.

The three statements at the start of this blog post summarize thoughts from, respectively, Professor Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll; Craig Gilbert, a fellow at the Marquette Law School Lubar Center for Public Policy Research and Civic Education; and Marquette Professor Julia Azari, a political scientist who is quoted frequently in national discussions on politics.   

“A Trump-Biden matchup would be so unprecedented,” said Gilbert, formerly the Washington bureau chief of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel. An incumbent president against a former president is not the only reason for saying that. The ages of the candidates, especially widely held perceptions of Biden being too old, and the large negative ratings of both candidates are also factors.

“We live in an era of chronic disapproval and discontent,” Gilbert said. “Everybody ‘s unpopular and everybody’s unhappy. Who’s happy?”

Franklin said a good reason to pay attention to poll results at this point – and the Marquette Law School Poll released both national and Wisconsin results recently – is not to predict how elections a year from now will turn out. It is to see how races are shaping up and, in the long run, to be able to understand more about the course that leads to final outcomes.

The race for the Republican nomination is dominated now by Trump, Franklin said, but Nikki Haley, the ambassador to the United Nations while Trump was president, does better than Trump in head-to-head match-ups against Biden. Franklin said Republican voters are split, with about 70% having favorable opinions of Trump and 30% having unfavorable opinions. Even if Haley looks strong against Biden, overcoming Trump within the Republican race will be a big challenge for her. “You’ve got to get the nomination to become the nominee,” Franklin said.

Azari said that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was positioning himself as “Trump-plus” and Haley as “Trump-light” in appealing to voters, while former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie was running as the anti-Trump. Support for DeSantis has been slipping, Christie is not gaining momentum, and Haley has become the alternative to Trump getting the most attention among Republicans.

Gilbert said about 20% of voters are “double haters,” with negative opinions of both Trump and Biden. They could become important in shaping the race, as could voters who have a somewhat negative opinion of Biden but who might vote for him in a match against Trump.

Looking to Wisconsin, Gilbert said voting patterns in the state have changed significantly in the past couple decades. The “WOW counties” — Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington Counties, adjacent to Milwaukee County – were long-time Republican bastions, but Republican margins have grown smaller in recent elections. Some rural parts of Wisconsin used to be more “purple,” with Democrats sometimes doing well, but have become increasingly “red” and supportive of Trump. And Dane County, including Madison, has continued to gain population and increase in its power as a  Democratic bastion. “It’s a different map” than it was 20 or 20 years ago when it comes to analyzing Wisconsin voting, he said.

Azari said Trump continues to appeal to “low-propensity voters” who are less likely to vote usually but are more likely to turn out for Trump. Many of them are in more rural parts of Wisconsin.

Franklin said that how much Trump voters will mobilize in 2024 is likely to be an important part of determining the election outcome.

Derek Mosley, director of the Lubar Center and moderator of the program, asked the three what had made Senator Tammy Baldwin, a Democrat, such a strong candidate for re-election in Wisconsin in 2024. Azari said Baldwin “has avoided becoming a national lightening rod” for conservatives. Gilbert said that in her Senate victories in 2012 and 2018, Baldwin did better in Republican-oriented parts of the state than other Democrats. Losing some areas by smaller than expected margins should not be underestimated as a valuable part of winning Wisconsin as a whole, he said. And Franklin said that, even though no major Republican candidate for Senate has joined the race so far, it is not too late for that to happen and the Wisconsin race could still heat up.   

The conversation may be viewed by clicking below.

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How You Define a Public School Says a Lot about Your Education Views

This piece ran as a column in the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel on November 4, 2023.

The definition of a public school? For a third of a century, Wisconsin has stretched it and bent it into new shapes — and fought about it. The state is still doing all of these, especially the fighting.

How people define a public school often says a lot about where they stand on big education issues. Look at some of the current controversies in Wisconsin:

  • A major lawsuit challenging the funding mechanisms and even the existence of the state’s voucher and charter school programs.
  • Decisions on funding the different sectors of schools in Wisconsin that were pivotal in reaching agreement over a state budget for the next two years.
  • Disputes over rules about how much private schools need to disclose publicly.
  • Enforcement of public regulations on private schools.

At their heart, each involves the definition of a public school. (Oh, and money.)

When you say “public school,” do you limit that to schools that are part of a traditional school system? Is a charter school, which operates in a somewhat independent fashion, a public school? Is a private school, including a religious school, a public school in some ways if it enrolls students whose education is paid for with tax dollars?   

Many advocates of the conventional public school system argue that Wisconsin can’t afford to pay for two major school systems, one public, one private, and that the financial health of the public system is getting worse, to a worrisome degree.

Many voucher advocates call traditional public schools “government schools” and say children who go to other schools are still part of the public, that they and their parents are making their own choices about what is best for schooling, and that they should get public support for their education.   

The definition of a public school was once simple. Neighborhood public schools offered general education, were funded by tax dollars, and operated as part of a system led by an elected school board. Private schools — Catholic or Lutheran or whatever else — were often religious, were funded by private entities, parents and individual donors, and were overseen by a private board or religious organization.

This now seems quaint. In Milwaukee, almost half of all kindergarten through 12th-grade children who are getting publicly funded education are not enrolled in the Milwaukee Public Schools system. The first urban school voucher program in America began small in Milwaukee in 1990, with a few hundred students in seven private schools. Now, publicly funded school choice options beyond conventional public schools involve several hundred schools and more than 66,000 students statewide.

Nationwide, there has been a surge of legislation allowing public money to support the education of students not in conventional public schools. About 10 states now have laws offering payments for any and all students to go to the schools of their choice.    

“I do think there are some pretty blurry lines on what you can call public education when we’re putting millions of dollars into something that is not a traditional public school,” author Cara Fitzpatrick said during a recent program at Marquette Law School. Fitzpatrick, a Pulitzer Prize-winning education reporter, is the author of a book released in September: “The Death of Public School: How Conservatives Won the War over Education in America.” (I moderated the Marquette Law program.)

She said the book tells the history of the school choice movement and is not intended to advocate for who is right. Nor is she saying that public schools are literally dead or dying, given that about 90% of American schoolchildren continue to attend schools that are part of conventional public systems.

But, as a journalist, Fitzpatrick has a clear conclusion about who is winning the political wars over defining public education. The first sentence of Fitzpatrick’s book sets out her take: “Public education in America is in jeopardy.” She describes the book as “a story of how conservatives successfully advocated for an expansive version of publicly funded education — driven by the values of the free market — by adopting the language of civil rights while simultaneously attacking public schools.”

Milwaukee as the birthplace of vouchers plays a big role in the book. One of the book’s most prominent and interesting figures is the late state Rep. Annette Polly Williams. Williams was an early advocate of vouchers as a way of giving low-income children more choices in education.

But Williams, who was Black, became disaffected from the movement when she thought it was being taken over by white conservatives who weren’t interested in low-income children but who wanted vouchers for all children — including those who were already well off or in private school. The social equity goal that Williams favored has generally been pushed to the side nationwide.

The “sector wars” between public school advocates and school choice advocates continue to be heated in Wisconsin. If anything, the battles have become even more heated, fueled by the growth of school choice programs, the effects of the pandemic and increased partisan polarization. Consider five recent aspects of the continuing hostilities:

The Wisconsin state budget: Vouchers increase. So, to a lesser degree, did revenue caps for school districts.

The politics were complex, but the outcome was clear when it came to the deal between Republican legislative leaders and Democratic Gov. Tony Evers at the heart of the state budget passed in June. Payments per students for kids in charter schools or using vouchers in private schools went up a lot. The revenue cap, which goes far in shaping public school budgets, was increased a more modest amount.

The Minocqua Brewing suit challenges Wisconsin school vouchers

Kirk Bangstad, owner of the Minocqua Brewing Co. and a strong partisan of progressive causes, is a central figure in a broad legal challenge filed in October with the Wisconsin Supreme Court. The suit is labeled informally with the name of his northern Wisconsin brewery. The plaintiffs seek to have the state Supreme Court take up the case directly, rather than going through lower courts first. This is the broadest legal challenge to vouchers and charters in years. The plaintiffs hope the Supreme Court, with its new liberal majority, will see things their way.   

Requirements for Wisconsin schools to disclose financial data publicly

Backed by Republicans, the Legislature passed a law requiring schools to make a lot of their financial information more accessible online. Some private school advocates balked at being included in the requirements, arguing that they were different than public schools. Facing criticism that it’s hard to take public money and not be open about how it’s used, they backed down.  

Cutting off Holy Redeemer school in Milwaukee from voucher funds

Just before the school year began, the state Department of Public Instruction ordered that Holy Redeemer Christian Academy in Milwaukee be cut off from receiving voucher money for failing to meet financial requirements set by the state. The long-standing school, with leadership that is politically well connected, appears to still be operating (no one from the school has returned numerous phone calls) and is fighting the DPI decision.

Action such as this was more frequent 15 or so years ago, when accountability systems for voucher schools were developing, often in response to practices that were questionable or worse. These days, private schools generally act more responsibly, and such enforcement is rare.

New charter funding

Charter schools statewide generally draw less attention and heat. Many are staffed by public school employees, some are not. It’s a complicated picture — but it may be poised to grow. DPI announced in early October that it was awarded $58 million in federal funds to strengthen systems around charter schools. The money could allow dozens of new charter schools, or could allow existing charters to expand or open additional locations.   

The way the debate plays out in coming years over what is a public school and how different types of schools should be funded will be a key to the vitality of schools of all kinds across Wisconsin — which, ultimately, is a key to the educational outcomes of hundreds of thousands of Wisconsin children.  

Alan J. Borsuk is senior fellow in law and public policy at Marquette Law School. Reach him at alan.borsuk@marquette.edu

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Faith and Determination Drive Milwaukee Port’s Director

You could learn important things about Jackie Q. Carter just by looking at the shirt she wore for her turn at the center of an interview program at Marquette Law School on October 11, 2023.

“God don’t play about me,” the shirt said in bold letters.

That leads to concluding that Carter focuses much of her life on religion, that she is dedicated and serious about the things she pursues, and that she is forthright in offering her perspectives.

Carter was selected by Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson in January 2023 to be director of the Port of Milwaukee. She is the first woman and first Black person to hold that position and one of the very few women or Black people to hold a major executive position for any port in the United States.

Carter was the guest for a “Get to Know” session moderated by Derek Mosley, director of the Lubar Center for Public Policy Research and Civic Education at Marquette Law School. The new series is aimed at giving interesting people opportunities to talk about themselves and their work.

Carter showed during the hourlong program how intent she is on both religion and her work for the port.  “If you ever heard me speak in public, you know how I always want to stop and honor God,” she said as the conversation began. “The foundation of who I am is my faith.”

Most of Carter’s childhood years were spent living near Washington Park on Milwaukee’s west side. Her family was on welfare at times, and she was raised primarily by her grandmother, who was the person who “founded me in the faith,” Carter said. Carter was a student at several Milwaukee area colleges and universities, culminating in her receiving an MBA degree from Concordia University in Mequon, and she explored several career possibilities before going to work for Milwaukee city government, first in the city treasurer’s office and then in the budget office.

That led to her becoming the finance officer for the port, which is part of city government. And when the port director announced that he was retiring, he urged her to apply for the job. She and her husband prayed on it, she applied, and she was selected.

Carter is a determined booster of the port and its importance. The port is a driver of the economy not only of Milwaukee but of Wisconsin as a whole, she said. The port is, in effect, the landlord for shipping operations and other users of the 467 acres of land it owns, including the Summerfest grounds and the Discovery World museum. Mountains of salt, visible from the Lake Freeway that passes over port property, ismake up one of the best known commodities that arrives in the part, but Carter described other products handled in large volumes, including steel and agricultural goods.

One area of growth for the port has been tourism, with increasing numbers of cruise ships docking in Milwaukee. Carter said the first cruise ship arrived in 2014. In 2023, there were 33 cruise ship arrivals, involving about 13,000 passengers.

Carter, who became a minister in 2022, sees the hand of God in leading her to her position with the port. “The Lord was laying that path out,” she said. And she is appreciative of people such as Mayor Johnson and port staff who have backed her success.

But she is also firm in asserting her own qualifications and accomplishments. “I earned the right to sit here in this chair,” she said. “Nobody gave it to me.”   

Video of the “Get to Know” program may be viewed by clicking on the link below.

Get to Know: Jackie Carter – YouTube

Continue ReadingFaith and Determination Drive Milwaukee Port’s Director