Negotiating Trick Shots

A little holiday cheer while grading exams–here’s how (yet another) failed negotiation went in my house this past fall. For context, my son Noah broke his leg on the very first day of school, 10 minutes into the very first soccer practice of the year. Since he couldn’t move much, his friends have been over many days this fall hanging out.

Son: Mom, you know we’ve been making this cool video of trick shots?

Mom: Yes

Son: Can I get up on the roof to make a shot?

Mom: No!!!

Son: Why Not?

Mom: YOU HAVE A BROKEN LEG…

Next Day

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A Tale of Three States, Part 5: The Effect of Truth in Sentencing in Wisconsin

Previous posts in this series have examined the latest available incarceration data from Indiana, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. This post considers historical data. I’m particularly interested in the impact of a major change in sentencing law that was adopted in Wisconsin in 1998. Under the “truth in sentencing” law, parole was abolished for crimes committed on or after December 31, 1999. What impact did this have on the size of the state’s prison population? Two hypotheses occur to me. First, if judges continued to impose the same nominal sentences that they had been imposing, one would expect the prison population to grow because offenders would be serving longer real sentences. Alternatively, judges might have reduced their nominal sentences to account for the loss of parole release options, attempting thereby to achieve the same real sentences as before TIS; such discounting would presumably lead to stability in the imprisonment rate.

The data, set forth in the table below, seem to support the latter hypothesis, with the current rate of imprisonment almost exactly matching that of 2000, the first full year after TIS took effect. Indeed, since 1999, the state’s imprisonment rate has been remarkably stable. The single largest annual change since 1999 was a 5.8% drop in 2005. This makes for quite a contrast with the volatile 1992-1999 time period, when annual increases averaged 12%.

The picture becomes even more interesting if we focus on Wisconsin’s imprisonment rate relative to that of peer states Indiana and Minnesota.

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SUVs and the Security State

Some thought higher gas prices would once and for all end the popularity of SUVs, but the demand for SUVs remained high during 2011. Sales totals for Ford’s Explorer and the Chrysler Groups’ Grand Cherokee, to cite only two SUV models, were higher than in 2010. How might one explain the continuing popularity of these gas-guzzlers which are so prone to rollovers and braking failures?

Studies suggest Americans’ continuing fears about international, domestic, and personal security are part of the answer. Market researchers have in the past found SUV and van purchasers tended to be demographically similar (relatively affluent married couples in their forties with children), but the researchers also discovered that on average SUV purchasers were edgier, less social people with strong fears of crime. It also appears SUV purchasers had less sexual confidence than van purchasers! While SUVs are often advertised as off-road vehicles, few SUV owners drive their vehicles off-road. Instead, SUVs seem to provide many owners with presumably secure private sanctuaries where they might tend to their fears. (See Keith Bradsher, “Delving Into the Pysche of SUV and Minivan Buyers,” Financial Post, July 18, 2000, C3.)

To some extent, the Hummer was the ultimate SUV. A military vehicle used by the armed forces in the First Gulf War, the Hummer was redesigned as a civilian family vehicle, albeit one that maintained its militaristic panache. The recession spelled the end of the Hummer what with its ten-miles-per-gallon fuel efficiency, but Hummers on the streets of American cities at the turn of the century wonderfully suggested the bourgeoning security consciousness. Huge numbers of Americans have a bunker mentality. They are afraid of terrorists, crime, and often social life in general.

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