Public Opinion and U.S. Supreme Court cases

Cases of the Oct. 2024 term

The Marquette Law School poll has conducted multiple national polls of opinion on cases before the U.S. Supreme Court in the October 2024 term. This post shows this results for cases that have been decided or are still pending. Additional polling will be conducted in July following the end of the term.

Links to SCOTUSBlog page for each case provide more details of the cases.

Classified documents

A federal judge in Florida has dismissed the case charging Trump with illegally retaining classified documents and obstructing government efforts to recover the documents. The judge ruled that the appointment of the special counsel violated the Constitution. Do you favor or oppose this ruling?

Poll datesFavorOpposeDon’t know
7/24-8/1/24374319
Party IDPoll datesFavorOpposeDon’t know
Republican7/24-8/1/24661221
Independent7/24-8/1/24253045
Democrat7/24-8/1/24127612

TikTok Ban

TikTok v. Garland

In January the Supreme Court upheld a law requiring the social media app TikTok, which is owned by a Chinese company, to be sold or banned in the U.S. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll datesFavorOppose
1/27-2/6/256238
Party IDPoll datesFavorOppose
Republican1/27-2/6/257327
Independent1/27-2/6/255347
Democrat1/27-2/6/255446

Halt Trump criminal sentencing

Trump v. New York

In January the Supreme Court rejected Donald Trump’s request to halt his criminal sentencing in New York where he was convicted in May on 34 felony counts, allowing sentencing to proceed. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll datesFavorOppose
1/27-2/6/256535
Party IDPoll datesFavorOppose
Republican1/27-2/6/254357
Independent1/27-2/6/257030
Democrat1/27-2/6/258712

Texas porn access

Free Speech Coalition, Inc. v. Paxton

In January the Supreme Court heard arguments concerning a Texas law meant to prevent minors from accessing sexual materials on the internet, through a requirement that adults prove they are 18 or over by submitting government-issued IDs in order to access sexually oriented websites. Do you think the court should uphold this law or strike it down for infringing on the rights of adults?

Poll datesUphold the lawStrike it down
1/27-2/6/256931
Party IDPoll datesUphold the lawStrike it down
Republican1/27-2/6/257822
Independent1/27-2/6/257426
Democrat1/27-2/6/255743

Freeze foreign aid payments

Department of State v. AIDS Vaccine Advocacy Coalition

[In March, the Supreme Court rejected President Trump’s request to freeze nearly $2 billion in foreign aid, sending the case back to a lower court for further proceedings.] How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll datesFavorOppose
3/17-27/255842
Party IDPoll datesFavorOppose
Republican3/17-27/253961
Independent3/17-27/256040
Democrat3/17-27/257624

EPA regulation limits

City and County of San Francisco v. Environmental Protection Agency

[In March, the Supreme Court ruled that the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was entitled to impose specific requirements on permit holders to prevent pollution but not to make the permit holders responsible simply because water quality has fallen below the agency’s standards.] How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll datesFavorOppose
3/17-27/254852
Party IDPoll datesFavorOppose
Republican3/17-27/255941
Independent3/17-27/254555
Democrat3/17-27/253862

Religious charter school

Oklahoma Statewide Charter School Board v. Drummond

[In April, the Supreme Court will hear arguments in a case asking whether a state that generally funds charter schools as alternatives to traditional public schools may refuse to fund a charter school simply because it is explicitly religious.] How do you think the Court should rule?

Poll datesThe state may refuse to fund the religious charter schoolThe state is required to fund a religious charter school
3/17-27/255743
Party IDPoll datesThe state may refuse to fund the religious charter schoolThe state is required to fund a religious charter school
Republican3/17-27/254555
Independent3/17-27/256040
Democrat3/17-27/256832

Ban transition treatment for minors

United States v. Skrmetti

[In December, the Supreme Court heard arguments challenging a Tennessee law that prohibits medical providers from prescribing puberty-delaying medication or performing gender transition surgery for youth under 18.] How do you think the Court should rule?

Poll datesUphold the Tennessee lawOverturn the law
3/17-27/257227
5/5-15/257030
Party IDPoll datesUphold the Tennessee lawOverturn the law
Republican3/17-27/259010
Republican5/5-15/25928
Independent3/17-27/257921
Independent5/5-15/257327
Democrat3/17-27/255248
Democrat5/5-15/254456

Trump administration must facilitate return of Kilmar Abrego Garcia

Noem v. Abrego Garcia

In April, the Supreme Court ruled that federal law requires the Trump administration to facilitate the return of a man erroneously deported to El Salvador. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll datesFavorOppose
5/5-15/256733
Party IDPoll datesFavorOppose
Republican5/5-15/254159
Independent5/5-15/256534
Democrat5/5-15/25946

Must provide due process before deportation

Trump v. J.G.G.

In April, the Supreme Court said that those the administration is seeking to deport under the Alien Enemies Act must receive notice that they are subject to deportation within a reasonable time and in such a manner as will allow them to actually seek court review before such deportation occurs. How much do you favor or oppose this decision?

Poll datesFavorOppose
5/5-15/256535
Party IDPoll datesFavorOppose
Republican5/5-15/254357
Independent5/5-15/256139
Democrat5/5-15/259010

Parents can opt kids out of LGBTQ readings

Mahmoud v. Taylor

In April, the Supreme Court heard arguments in a case asking whether parents of elementary school students should be able to opt their children out of reading classes concerning stories about LGBTQ+ characters, if those stories conflict with the families’ religious beliefs. How do you think the Court should rule?

Poll datesParents should be able to opt outThe schools should set the curriculum for all
5/5-15/257030
Party IDPoll datesParents should be able to opt outThe schools should set the curriculum for all
Republican5/5-15/25919
Independent5/5-15/256931
Democrat5/5-15/254852

Cases not yet polled

Reverse Discrimination

Ames v. Ohio Department of Youth Services

Holding: The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 6th Circuit’s “background circumstances” rule — which requires members of a majority group to satisfy a heightened evidentiary standard to prevail on a Title VII discrimination claim — cannot be squared with either the text of Title VII or the Supreme Court’s precedents.

Judgment: Vacated and remanded, 9-0, in an opinion by Justice Jackson on June 5, 2025. Justice Thomas filed a concurring opinion, in which Justice Gorsuch joined.

Smith & Wesson v Mexico

Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. v. Estados Unidos Mexicanos

Holding: Because Mexico’s complaint does not plausibly allege that the defendant gun manufacturers aided and abetted gun dealers’ unlawful sales of firearms to Mexican traffickers, the Protection of Lawful Commerce in Arms Act bars the lawsuit.

Judgment: Reversed, 9-0, in an opinion by Justice Kagan on June 5, 2025. Justices Thomas and Jackson filed concurring opinions.

Police excessive use of force

Barnes v. Felix

Holding: The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit’s moment-of-threat rule — a framework for evaluating police shootings which requires a court to look only to the circumstances existing at the precise time an officer perceived the threat inducing him to shoot — improperly narrows the Fourth Amendment analysis of police use of force.

Judgment: Vacated and Remanded , 9-0, in an opinion by Justice Kagan on May 15, 2025. Justice Kavanaugh filed a concurring opinion, in which Justices Thomas, Alito, and Barrett joined.

Regulation of Flavored Vapes

Food and Drug Administration v. Wages and White Lion Investments

Holding: The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit erred in setting aside as arbitrary and capricious the FDA’s orders denying respondents’ applications for authorization to market new e-cigarette products pursuant to The Family Smoking Prevention and Tobacco Control Act of 2009; the 5th Circuit also relied on an incorrect standard to reject the FDA’s claim of harmless error regarding the agency’s failure to consider marketing plans submitted by respondents.

Judgment: Vacated and remanded, 9-0, in an opinion by Justice Alito on April 2, 2025. Justice Sotomayor filed a concurring opinion.

Ghost guns

Garland v. VanDerStok

Emergency application for stay is granted on Aug. 8, 2023. Justices Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, and Kavanaugh would deny the application for stay.

Issue: Whether the Supreme Court should stay the judgment of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Texas baring the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives from enforcing a 2022 rule regulating “ghost guns” as firearms.

Birthright Citizenship or Universal Injunction

Trump v. CASA

Emergency application for partial stay

Issue: Whether the Supreme Court should stay the district courts’ nationwide preliminary injunctions on the Trump administration’s Jan. 20 executive order ending birthright citizenship except as to the individual plaintiffs and identified members of the organizational plaintiffs or states.

Race and Congressional districting

Louisiana v. Callais

Issue: (1) Whether the majority of the three-judge district court in this case erred in finding that race predominated in the Louisiana legislature”s enactment of S.B. 8; (2) whether the majority erred in finding that S.B. 8 fails strict scrutiny; (3) whether the majority erred in subjecting S.B. 8 to the preconditions specified in Thornburg v. Gingles; and (4) whether this action is non-justiciable.

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What the Supreme Court Election tells us about Wisconsin’s Legislative Districts

You might think that adding up the results of a statewide April election in legislative districts should be simple, but it’s not.

First problem: the state currently doesn’t include political district numbers in the results for nonpartisan elections.

Second problem: votes in Wisconsin are counted, not in wards, but in combinations of wards called “reporting units,” and April nonpartisan elections can use different reporting units than in November elections.

Third problem: the reporting units used in April sometimes straddle partisan district lines.

So, my media consumer advisory is this; if you read an article telling you the results of an April election apportioned into legislative districts, you should expect to see an explanation of how the author obtained that data.

Here is how I do it. First, I identify the individual wards comprising each reporting unit. Then, I match those wards to the most recent GIS ward file I can find.[1] Every ward falls within a single political district, so I check to be sure that each ward in every reporting unit is assigned to the same district. If a reporting unit is split across multiple districts, I divide its vote according to the proportion of the reporting unit’s registered voters residing within each district.[2]

Here are the results of the 2025 April Supreme Court election between the Republican-endorsed candidate Brad Schimel and the Democratic-endorsed candidate Susan Crawford.

Crawford won 55.0% of the vote. Under the maps as currently used, this worked out to 54.5% of Assembly districts (54/99), 57.6% of Senate districts (19/33), and 50% of Congressional districts (4/8).

Table 1: Results of the 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court Election in legislative districts

 seats won by
SchimelCrawford
State Assembly4554
State Senate1419
Congress44

The next table compares those results with some of the other recent redistricting plans, either proposed or used. Under the GOP-drawn maps used in the 2022 election, Crawford’s 10-point net victory would’ve resulted in 5-seat Republican majority in the Assembly and a 3-seat Republican majority in the Senate.

Table 2: Results of the 2025 Wisconsin Supreme Court Election in select alternative legislative districts

 State AssemblyState SenateCongress
SchimelCrawfordSchimelCrawfordSchimelCrawford
Evers’ 2024 (used in state legislature)45541419——
Evers’ Least Change4752171644
Districts used 2012-20204851171653
Districts used in 202252471815——
GOP Congressmen proposal 2021————53

Implications for 2026

Wisconsin’s state legislative maps now closely reflect the results at the top of the ticket. Both Donald Trump and Tammy Baldwin translated their narrow 1-point victories into 1-seat majorities of assembly districts. But actual Republican assembly candidates won a 5-seat majority.

In previous analyses, I found that incumbency advantage was worth about 4 points (net) for Republican Assembly candidates in both 2024 and 2022. This advantage means that the Republican Assembly majority can likely withstand election years resulting in a narrow statewide victory for Democrats. But anything approaching Crawford’s landslide victory puts many Republican incumbents in competitive districts much more at risk.

Here are the 6 closest battleground seats in the State Assembly. They are all seats which split their vote between the Assembly and presidential races. Five of them voted for Harris and a Republican legislator, while one voted for Trump and a Democratic legislator. In all instances, Susan Crawford defeated Schimel by double-digits.

Table 3: Election Results in Key Battleground Districts of the Wisconsin State Assembly

 Dem or Lib % minus Rep or Con %
State AssemblyPresidentUS SenateWI Sup. Ct.
21st-2.84.07.019.3
51st-3.43.57.819.9
53rd-1.24.46.118.0
61st-3.22.23.713.5
88th-0.70.31.211.3
94th0.6-2.10.012.3

Likewise, there are 4 battleground State Senate districts, one of which (the 31st) is currently represented by a Democrat and the rest by Republicans. Because Wisconsin elects odd-numbered senate districts during midterm years, these seats will hold their first elections under the new boundaries in 2026. As in the Assembly battlegrounds, Crawford won each of these districts by more than her statewide margin of victory.

Table 4: Election Results in Key Battleground Districts of the Wisconsin State Senate

 Dem or Lib % minus Rep or Con %
PresidentUS SenateWI Sup. Ct.
5th5.95.013.5
17th1.04.617.9
21st1.22.210.7
31st2.24.718.0

[1] I begin with the most recent LTSB stateward ward boundary file (Jan. 2025 in this case). When recent annexations or incorporations make these boundaries already out-of-date, I obtain updated boundaries from the county. For the April 2025 election, I needed updated ward boundary files from Dane and Waukesha counties.

[2] I do this using a geocoded copy of the state’s voter file, but it could also be done using the state’s monthly ward-level registered voter report.

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Eleven Thoughts on Making the Work of K–12 Teachers More Successful

People Falling with Hand outreachedThe Fall 2024 Marquette Lawyer magazine included essays looking at the broad question of why so much K–12 education reform brings so little progress. If I do say so myself (and I was much involved), it was a provocative and thoughtful discussion.

In the end, one sentence stood out to me and others involved in planning programs at Marquette Law School’s Lubar Center for Public Policy Research and Civic Education. Robert Pondiscio, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, wrote, “What if, instead of pulling policy levers, we redirected the reform movement’s energy and enthusiasm toward improving classroom practice?”

Well, what if? Pondiscio argued that better training of teachers and steps to lighten the workload of teachers would open paths to better results. He said too much is being expected of many teachers now. He advocated particularly for providing teachers in many subjects high-quality curricular materials so they don’t have to spend large amount of time developing lessons plans and can focus on actual teaching and connecting with students.

To advance the conversation, Marquette Law School, teaming with the Marquette College of Education, hosted an in-person forum on May 8, 2025, titled “Focusing K–12 Education Reform on Teaching Efforts.” Before an audience in the Lubar Center of more than 100, including a number of leaders in Wisconsin education, Pondiscio expanded on his thinking; Sarah Almy, chief of external affairs for the National Council on Teacher Quality, offered additional perspective; and a panel of Wisconsin educators offered their thoughts.

We intend to pursue this important conversation in further events and in the Marquette Lawyer magazine. For the moment, let me offer a set of thoughts from the conference’s speakers.

Pondiscio on the teaching workforce overall: With about 3.7 million K–12 teachers nationwide, it is unrealistic to expect the large majority to be “saints and superstars.” The large majority, he said, are people who want to be good teachers but are, for one reason or another, more middle-of-the-pack in their work. But, he said, they could become more successful. “That’s why I come back to raising not the level of teacher quality, but of quality teaching—making this job doable by the teachers we have and not by the teachers we wish we had.”

Pondiscio on reducing the burden on teachers who often must deal with duties that go beyond actual teaching: “Something’s got to come off the teacher’s plate. And the most obvious thing to me is curriculum. . . . Somebody else can write the curriculum. Nobody else can give feedback, get to know the kids, etc. So that one basic shift alone would probably make a difference.”

Pondiscio, when asked who will do all the non-teaching things teachers do now: “I don’t know what the answer is, but I know what the answer is not. It’s not asking Miss Jones to do it. . . . This is about making teaching easier and doable.”

Pondiscio on the education reform movement in recent years: Some reformers wanted to “beat teachers up—you know, ‘look at these terrible teachers, they’re lazy.’ A lot of us in education reform said, ‘just fire bad teachers and all will be well.’” In fact, he said, teachers were not “the sinners,” but “the sinned against,” by being put in positions where they faced unreasonable demands and were not trained well. “The teachers are not the bad guys here. When teachers know what to do, they’re not that bad.”

Almy on the gap between policy and practice in education: “I think a lot of times we really fall down on translating policy into implementation and practice. . . . I think we put a lot of energy, whether it’s at the state level or the district level, into getting the policy passed and the political pieces of that. And then everyone takes a sigh of relief and sort of assumes a lot of this will translate at the classroom level.” But pushing waves of reform onto teachers and local school leaders often means that things don’t change “because the classroom door closes and the teacher does whatever the teacher’s going to do.”

Almy on teacher-training programs, a major focus of her organization: “We need to stop putting all of the onus on training teachers on the districts, and we need to ensure that we’re holding our teacher-prep programs to really high expectations.”

Taylor Thompson, a first-year first-grade teacher from Oshkosh who has used a literacy curriculum called Core Knowledge Language Arts: “CKLA has actually given me a clear, structured path that supports my teaching and my students’ learning . . . . That structure has allowed me to focus on how we are teaching things, rather than spending hours worrying and figuring out what we are teaching.”

Maggy Olson, director of equity and instruction for the Greendale School District in suburban Milwaukee, on those who say education is not succeeding: “I think so often in education that is the narrative: ‘It’s impossible.’ It is, ‘teachers are failing, kids are failing, our schools are failing, it’s a mess.’ I want to say that is absolutely false. . . . Our schools are not failing. They’re doing more than they’ve ever done before.”

Kanika Burks, chief schools officer for Howard Fuller Collegiate Academy, a Milwaukee charter school, on the obligation of administrators to support teachers: Administrators need to “pay attention to the heart of the people that are in front of you. . . . If the person who is in front of our young people is not healthy, if their heart is breaking, if they are breaking down, they are not going to be the most effective person regardless of the curriculum and the faith in them.”

Cynthia Ellwood, a Marquette University College of Education faculty member, on striking a balance between curriculum and teacher presentation: “It’s not just a matter of going out there and finding the perfect material. I don’t think it boils down to a single approach to curriculum [or other factors]. . . . We must know that every single one of our students is capable of high intellectual thought, that they are capable of seeing themselves as intellectuals. And what we’re doing right now is not building pathways so that every child is offered this incredible challenging curriculum and the appropriate supports that make it possible for them to succeed.”

Olson on the future: “Is there hope? Yes, there is so much hope in our children and our educators. Right now, we are in a very dark place. I would argue that we are not in a tomb, we are in a womb, and we’re ready to be reborn. . . . . Hope is in the work that we have moving forward.”

The in-print symposium in the fall 2024 Marquette Lawyer magazine may be read by clicking here (online version) or here (PDF).

Video of the May 8 program at Eckstein Hall may be viewed by clicking here.

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