Ireland Reflections 2020–Last Day!

For our last day on the trip, we headed for Stormont – home to the Northern Ireland Assembly for our morning excursion.group photo on the steps of Stormont

As Morgan Henson noted, “the Parliament building in Belfast was a truly interesting experience. After going through what some might call a gauntlet of stories about The Troubles all week, we finally arrived at the seat of the Northern Ireland government. After hearing about The Troubles, and the resulting fallout, I was curious to see what the governing body would look like, how it would function. While I will admit there were some interesting aspects, the thing I most enjoyed was sitting in the chamber room and seeing how votes get passed.” 2L Jazmin  Ramirez added she too “found it fascinating to be able to sit in the room where a lot of important decisions are made.”  (To get us mirroring parliamentary debate, our guide had us debate whether or not the hot dog is a sandwich….discuss!)photo of students sitting in parliament chambers

Following the tour and our own lively debate, we grabbed cups of tea and headed to meet with Doug Beattie, an Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) Member of the Legislative Assembly (MLA). A common feeling at this juncture of the trip was beautifully verbalized by Oliva Robinson, “when thinking of the political conflict in Ireland and Northern Ireland, the opponents are often characterized as the “Catholics” and the “Protestants.” As I learned the foundations of the conflict in Comparative Conflict Resolution, I found myself, as someone not raised under a religion, wondering how a religious divide could be the catalyst of such tragic events. As our dive into and my understanding of the conflict deepened, it became clear that these opponents are also referred to as the “Republicans” and the “Loyalists,” respectively, amongst many other terms used to describe these groups. These varying terms left me asking what role religious affiliation still has within the conflict in Ireland and Northern Ireland.”

This question was answered by Doug Beattie. Doug was not raised particularly religious and was happy to tell us about his experience as a UUP MLA  without religious affiliation. “While he discussed the divisions in Northern Ireland as religious, he made it a point to bring up that many of the divisions are based along political fault lines; such lines are between the two major parties in the North, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP), a conservative, unionist, majority Protestant party, and Sinn Fein, a more liberal, nationalist/republican, majority Catholic party.” 3L Dan Kinderman recalled.

For Robinson, “this talk with Doug brought the conflict to its modern-day point, allowing us to see how the conflict has and has not changed since its beginnings. While the (perhaps, overly simplified) premise of whether the Northern Ireland should be united with the Republic of Ireland or stay a part of the United Kingdom remains the same, the terminology based on religious affiliation does not necessarily seem to coincide with its political counterpart the way it once did.”Picture in the main hall with legislator Doug Beattiephoto of students with legislator Doug Beattie

Following many group pictures and some solo shots outside the magnificent building, our afternoon concluded with a visit to Belfast’s perhaps most famous export – The Titanic. During the 20th Century, Belfast was a hub for shipbuilding. “The Titanic was built at Harland and Wolff’s shipyard in Belfast beginning in 1909. At the time, Harland and Wolff employed 15,000 Irish workers” Michelle Ziegler contextualized. She added, the “Titanic left Belfast on April 2, 1912 on her maiden voyage. Titanic traveled to Southampton, England; Cherbourg, France; and finally Queenstown, Ireland before embarking for her destination, New York on April 11, 1912.”

As Kelsey McCarthy noted, “for many of us, when we think of the Titanic, we think of the movies that have taken over Hollywood. Walking through the Titanic museum, I found myself thinking more critically about the ship itself, the events that led to its sinking, and most importantly, about the people that were on the ship.” For McCarthy “one of the most striking parts of the museum was the exhibit where the Titanic’s distress calls to the Carpathia, becoming more and more frantic, were laid out on the walls.”photo of students outside the Titanic Museum

(Since I had been to the museum several times before and my RA Morgan was more interested in escape rooms–we had fun at Escape Room Belfast which gave us both a fun break.  And, btw, we did escape under an hour!)Photo of Prof Andrea Scheneider and RA Morgan

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Rally ’round the flag? It depends on the flag

Nationally, Donald Trump’s approval rating has improved by a few points since mid-March. This could be due to a so-called “Rally ’round the flag effect,” in which, traditionally, a wartime president receives an upswell of support during times of national crisis. The archetypal example is George W. Bush after 9/11. His approval rating rose nearly 40 points, basically overnight.

Trump’s approval rating improved not at all in the latest Marquette Law Poll. In late February we found 48% of registered voters approved of his job and 48% disapproved. This month, we find 48% approve and 49% disapprove–not even close to a meaningful change. Given the dramatic results found elsewhere in the poll this could seem surprising. Are Wisconsinites so polarized that nothing can change their minds about politicians?

Not necessarily. The graph below shows the share of respondents who approved of Donald Trump’s job as President and Tony Evers’ job as governor in late February compared to the end of March.

  • Independents handed Evers and Trump identical boosts. Each politician grew 9 points more popular.
  • Democrats gave Evers a 10-point boost. Their dismal approval rating for Trump remained unchanged.
  • Republicans have the most interesting trend. They increased their support of Evers by 19 points, from 20% approving to 39%. Their approval of Trump actually declined from 95% to 88%. (This is right around the edge of the margin of error). Possibly explanations include statistical noise, dissatisfaction with his handling of the pandemic, or a natural reversion from Trump’s peak intra-party support during the impeachment trial.

It seems Wisconsin voters are rallying around the flag; just in this case, it’s the Wisconsin flag.

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An Anything But Normal Election

In the press release for today’s Marquette University Law School Poll, you’ll find the following sentence: “Given the uncertainty created by historically high levels of absentee voting and the unknown levels of election day turnout, these results should be viewed with more than the usual caution.”

Poll Director Charles Franklin is referring specifically to the polling numbers in the Democratic presidential primary. But his note of caution seems wise as we careen toward next Tuesday’s election.

Put another way, we don’t know what we don’t know about this spring election.

After reporting, writing, and talking about Wisconsin politics for 40 years, I thought I had seen it all. I was wrong.

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