MILWAUKEE – A new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin registered voters finds that incumbents of both parties face a challenging political environment one year before the 2022 election, with a greater number of unfavorable than favorable views of all seven political figures included in the survey. Among registered voters, 40% say they would vote to reelect Gov. Tony Evers, while 53% would vote for someone else and 6% say they don’t know or decline to say. For Sen. Ron Johnson, 38% say they would vote to reelect him, 52% would vote for someone else, and 10% say they don’t know or decline to answer.

Evers’ job approval stands at 45%, while 46% disapprove. When last measured in August 2021, 50% approved and 43% disapproved.

Evers is viewed favorably by 42% and unfavorably by 45%, with 13% saying they don’t know enough about him or don’t have an opinion. For Johnson, 36% have a favorable opinion, 42% have an unfavorable opinion, and 22% say they don’t know enough or don’t have an opinion. In August, Evers was seen favorably by 46% and unfavorably by 42%, while Johnson was viewed favorably by 35% and unfavorably by 42%.

Both Evers and Johnson have spoken frequently about the coronavirus pandemic. Fifty-three percent say they trust Evers as a source of information about the virus either a great deal or a fair amount, while 45% say they trust him not much or not at all. Thirty-nine percent trust Johnson a great deal or a fair amount for coronavirus information, while 54% say they trust him not much or not at all.

Approval of Evers’ handing of the pandemic is 53%, with 40% disapproval. In August, 54% approved and 39% disapproved.

President Joe Biden’s job approval rating has declined to 43%, with 53% saying they disapprove and 4% say they don’t know. His job approval is down from 49% in August, when 46% disapproved.

Thirty-nine percent approve of how Biden is handling the economy, with 56% disapproving and 5% saying they don’t know. On his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, 50% approve, 46% disapprove, and 3% say they don’t know. In August, 46% approved of Biden’s handling of the economy and 48% disapproved. His August approval for handling the pandemic was 54%, with disapproval at 42%.

While Biden’s job approval rating has fallen, he leads former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 rematch, with 45% for Biden to 41% for Trump. Eleven percent of respondents say they would vote for neither, and 3% say they don’t know. In the final Marquette Law School Poll before the 2020 election, among all registered voters, Biden was supported by 47%, as opposed to 43% for Trump. Biden won Wisconsin in the 2020 election by 0.6 percentage points, 49.4% to 48.8%.

Sen. Tammy Baldwin is viewed favorably by 38% and unfavorably by 39%, while 22% do not have an opinion. In August, she was viewed favorably by 40% and unfavorably by 38%, with 22% not offering an opinion.

Other political figures also were viewed more unfavorably than favorably.

• Biden is given a favorable rating by 44% and an unfavorable rating by 52%, with 4% unable to give a rating.
• Vice President Kamala Harris is seen favorably by 39% and unfavorably by 47%, with 14% unable to give a rating.
• Trump is rated favorably by 38% and unfavorably by 57%, with 5% not rating him.
• Former Vice President Mike Pence is seen favorably by 38% and unfavorably by 42%, with 20% not giving a rating.

Direction of the state and concern about issues

About the state of Wisconsin, 41% say the state is headed in the right direction, while 51% say it is off on the wrong track. In August, 39% said the state was headed in the right direction and 52% said it was on the wrong track.

Concern about inflation has increased since August. In that poll, 49% were very concerned, while October’s survey shows that figure rising to 64%. In October, an additional 28% are somewhat concerned and 7% who are not too concerned or not at all concerned. In August, 35% were somewhat concerned and 14% were not too or not at all concerned.

Those very concerned about illegal immigration rose to 43% in October, from 37% in August. The number of those somewhat concerned was little changed at 25%, up slightly from 24% in August. Those not too concerned or not at all concerned amounted to 31% in October and 39% in August.

Forty percent say they are very concerned about the coronavirus pandemic, with 34% somewhat concerned and 25% not too or not at all concerned. This question was not asked in the August poll.

2020 Election

Confidence in the accuracy of the 2020 election in Wisconsin is little changed at 65% from 67% in August. Those with doubts about the election were 32% in October, the same as the August poll.

Confidence in the 2020 election—that “the votes for president were accurately cast and counted”—is strongly related to party identification, as shown in Table 1.

Table 1: Confidence in 2020 election results in Wisconsin, by party identification

Party ID	Confident	Not confident	DK/Ref
Republican	33	64	4
Independent	67	30	3
Democrat	99	1	0

Almost two thirds of respondents, 65%, say they have not heard enough to have an opinion about the election review being conducted by former Wisconsin Supreme Court Justice Michael Gableman. Eleven percent approve of how he is handling the review and 22% disapprove.

While Republicans are much more doubtful about the accuracy of the 2020 election, as shown in Table 1 above, they are less likely than Democrats to say they have heard enough to have an opinion of the Gableman review. Some 72% of Republicans say they don’t know enough about this, while 56% of Democrats and 67% of independents say they lack enough information. Views of the Gableman investigation by party are shown in Table 2.

Table 2: Approval of Gableman election review, by party identification

Party ID	Approve	Disapprove	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know
Republican	15	9	72	4
Independent	11	21	67	1
Democrat	7	37	56	0

Half of respondents, 50%, say they have not heard enough about the election review conducted by the Legislative Audit Bureau to have an opinion of that report. There were 28% who say it shows the election was largely safe and secure and 17% who say the report raises doubts about the election. An additional 5% say they don’t know. As with the Gableman review, Republicans are less aware of this report than are Democrats, while partisans differ substantially in their conclusions about the report.

Table 3: Perception of the Legislative Audit Bureau election report, by party identification

Party ID	Largely safe and secure	Raises doubts about the election	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	8	30	54	8	0
Independent	22	18	55	5	0
Democrat	58	2	37	3	0

State issues

The decennial redistricting process is being followed very or fairly closely by 39% of respondents, while 60% say they are following it not too closely or not at all.

A majority, 63%, say redistricting should be conducted by a nonpartisan commission, while 25% say it should be done by the legislature and the governor. On this issue, there are virtually no partisan differences, as shown in Table 4, with more than 60% support for nonpartisan redistricting among each partisan group.

Table 4: Preferred method of redistricting, by party identification

Party ID	Legislature and governor	Nonpartisan commission	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	24	62	15	0
Independent	23	63	15	0
Democrat	29	64	6	1

A majority, 62%, support the current state law allowing concealed carry of handguns with a required license, while 29% oppose the law. A recent legislative proposal that would allow concealed carry without requiring a license is favored by 20% and opposed by 76%.

Over two-thirds of respondents, 69%, say that crime is rising nationally, while 10% say crime is about the same and 11% say there is less crime than a year ago.

In their daily activities, 78% say they feel safe from crime, while 21% say they worry about crime. This fear of crime in daily life is not related to support for licensed concealed carry laws, as shown in Table 5.

Table 5: Support for licensed concealed carry, by worry about crime in daily activities

Feel safe or worry about crime	Favor	Oppose
Feel safe	62	29
Worried	61	32

A proposal is currently being considered to amend the state constitution so that the governor would appoint the state school superintendent. Appointment of the school superintendent by the governor is supported by 9%, while 85% prefer the current system, where the superintendent is elected.

With the U.S. Supreme Court set to hear a major abortion case on Dec. 1, a majority of Wisconsin residents, 61%, say that abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 34% say it should be illegal in all or most cases. The trend in opinion on abortion is shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Trend in opinion about abortion

Poll dates	Legal in all cases	Legal in most cases	Illegal in most cases	Illegal in all cases
9/13-16/12	26	34	23	13
9/27-30/12	25	35	23	12
10/11-14/12	25	34	25	12
10/25-28/12	28	32	23	12
10/21-24/13	26	36	25	10
10/23-26/14	24	34	24	15
7/11-15/18	27	36	18	11
9/12-16/18	26	36	21	9
10/24-28/18	26	29	24	14
2/19-23/20	18	37	22	15
10/26-31/21	23	38	23	11

Effect of school disruption on children

A majority of respondents, 57%, say they are very concerned about children falling behind academically due to disruptions caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Another 31% are somewhat concerned, and 12% are not too or not at all concerned.

Similar percentages are concerned about children’s mental or emotional health being affected by the disruptions of school, with 59% very concerned, 30% somewhat concerned, and 9% not too or not at all concerned.

Tables 7 and 8 show concern about school children by whether the respondent has a school-age child in the household. Those with children are slightly less concerned than those without children.

Table 7: Concern about children’s academic progress, by children in home

Children in home	Very concerned	Somewhat concerned	Not too concerned	Not at all concerned
Children in home	50	35	13	2
No children in home	60	29	7	3

Table 8: Concern about children’s mental or emotional health, by children in home

Children in home	Very concerned	Somewhat concerned	Not too concerned	Not at all concerned
Children in home	56	35	7	1
No children in home	60	28	6	4

A majority, 60%, say they are very satisfied or satisfied with the job public schools are doing in their community, down from 69% in the August survey by the Marquette Law School Poll. And, in the current poll, 31% are dissatisfied or very dissatisfied, up from 21% in August. The comparison across surveys is shown in Table 9.

Table 9: Satisfaction with public schools in August and October 2021

Poll dates	Very satisfied	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Very dissatisfied	Mixed feelings (VOL)	Don’t know
8/3-8/21	22	47	15	6	2	7
10/26-31/21	25	35	18	13	2	8

Satisfaction with schools by presence of children in the household and by survey is shown in Table 10. For those with children, both the percentage of very satisfied and the percentage of very dissatisfied rose from August to October, with somewhat smaller changes among those without children.

Table 10: Satisfaction with public schools, by children in home in August and October 2021

Children in home	Poll dates	Very satisfied	Satisfied	Dissatisfied	Very dissatisfied	Mixed feelings (VOL)	Don’t know
Children in home	8/3-8/21	22	46	17	7	2	5
Children in home	10/26-31/21	33	30	18	18	1	1
No children in home	8/3-8/21	22	48	15	6	2	7
No children in home	10/26-31/21	23	37	18	10	2	10

Fifty-five percent support requiring students and teachers to wear masks in schools, with 40% opposed. Those with children are slightly less supportive of a mask requirement, 51%, than are those without children, 58%.

Coronavirus and vaccines

Wisconsin voters are evenly divided on a federal requirement that companies with over 100 employees require vaccinations or weekly testing for workers, with 48% in favor and 48% opposed.

In this survey of registered voters, 74% say they have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, while 23% say they have not been vaccinated. An additional 3% say they don’t know or declined to answer. As of Oct. 31, the final day of interviewing for this poll, the Centers for Disease Control data showed 69% of Wisconsin residents age 18 and over have received at least one dose. In the poll, 62% report having completed the vaccine series, while the CDC data for Wisconsin show 66% having completed the series.

Of those who have not yet received a vaccination, 56% say they will definitely not get the vaccine and another 18% say they probably won’t get the vaccine. Seven percent of unvaccinated respondents say they will definitely get vaccinated, and another 15% say they probably will get vaccinated.

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This poll interviewed 805 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone, Oct. 26-31, 2021. The margin of error is +/-3.9 percentage points for the full sample. Some items were asked of half the sample. Those on Form A were asked of 401 respondents and have a margin of error of +/-5.6 percentage points. Form B items were asked of 404 respondents and have a margin of error of +/-5.5 percentage points.

Items asked of half-samples include on Form A concern for inflation, illegal immigration, and coronavirus; redistricting items; direction of the state and on Form B perceptions of crime; support for concealed carry; election or appointment of the state school superintendent; and opinion about abortion.

The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 45% Republican, 44% Democratic and 9% independent. The partisan makeup of the sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 30% Republican, 29% Democratic and 40% independent.

Since January 2019, the long-term partisan balance, including those who lean to a party, in the Marquette poll has been 45% Republican and 44% Democratic, with 9% independent. Partisanship exuding those who lean has been 29% Republican and 28% Democratic, with 41% independent.

The entire questionnaire, methodology statement, full results and breakdowns by demographic groups are available at law.marquette.edu/poll/results-and-data.

MILWAUKEE — A Marquette Law School Poll survey of adults nationwide finds a mixed set of views on the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. President Joe Biden’s handling of the withdrawal receives a 36% approval rating and a 63% disapproval rating. Among the same set of respondents, however, 74% support the withdrawal of all U.S. troops from Afghanistan with 26% opposed to ending the U.S. presence. Further, 25% say the war was worth it, while 74% say it was not worth it. As for the fate of Afghan refugees, 58% support admitting as many refugees to the United States as possible, while 42% are opposed to this.

The survey was conducted September 7-16, 2021, interviewing 1,411 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points.

There are substantial partisan differences in these opinions. Table 1 shows approval of Biden’s handling of the withdrawal, with two-thirds of independents disapproving and nearly a third of Democrats disapproving of their party’s president’s handling of the situation. More than 90% of Republicans disapprove.

All results in the tables below are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.

Table 1: Approve or disapprove of Biden’s handling of withdrawal from Afghanistan, by party identification, Sept. 2021

Party ID	Approve	Disapprove
Republican	6	94
Independent	33	66
Democrat	68	32

While critical of Biden’s handling of the withdrawal, large majorities of Democrats and independents in Table 2 say they support the removal of U.S. troops, while Republicans divide evenly on the question.

Table 2: Favor or oppose withdrawing all US troops from Afghanistan, by party identification, Sept. 2021

Party ID	Support	Oppose
Republican	50	49
Independent	78	22
Democrat	89	11

Table 3 shows deep misgivings about America’s long commitment in Afghanistan, with majorities of each partisan group saying the war was “not worth it.”

Table 3: Was the war in Afghanistan worth it, by party identification, Sept. 2021

Party ID	Worth it	Not worth it
Republican	42	58
Independent	22	78
Democrat	15	85

Nearly two-thirds of Republicans in Table 4 are opposed to admitting as many Afghan refugees as possible, while solid majorities of independents and Democrats favor doing so.

Table 4: Support or oppose admitting as many Afghan refugees as possible, by party identification, Sept. 2021

Party ID	Support	Oppose
Republican	36	64
Independent	58	42
Democrat	78	22

Biden’s job approval has declined

Biden’s overall job approval also has suffered in the wake of the Afghanistan situation, with 48% saying they approve of how he is handling his job and 52% saying they disapprove. In the July Marquette Law School national survey, 58% approved and 42% disapproved.

Biden’s approval declined among all partisan groups from July to September, as shown in Table 5. Already-low approval among Republicans fell by half, while independents reversed their majority approval to majority disapproval. High approval among Democrats also fell by 7 points.

Table 5: Biden overall job approval, nationwide, by party identification, July & Sept. 2021

Party ID	Survey	Approve	Disapprove
Republican	7/16-26/21	16	84
Republican	9/7-16/21	9	90
Independent	7/16-26/21	57	43
Independent	9/7-16/21	43	57
Democrat	7/16-26/21	96	3
Democrat	9/7-16/21	89	11

While the number of COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations and deaths have sharply increased since early July, Biden’s handling of the pandemic remains a strong point for him. Among respondents, 56% approve of his handling of the response, while 43% disapprove.

Table 6 shows that, on this issue, a majority of independents approve of Biden’s handling of the coronavirus response and Democratic approval is over 90%. While Republicans are sharply disapproving, Biden receives a higher approval from them on this than for his overall job or his handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal. (This item was not asked in July, so trends are unavailable.)

Table 6: Approve or disapprove of Biden’s response to coronavirus, by party identification, Sept. 2021

Party ID	Approve	Disapprove
Republican	18	81
Independent	55	45
Democrat	92	8

Views of pandemic policies differ by partisanship

A majority of respondents, 69%, support requiring teachers and students to wear masks in public schools, with 30% opposed to such mask mandates. Table 7 shows that Republican parents of children under 18 are the most opposed to a policy of masks in schools, with less than 30% in favor. In all groups, non-parents are more supportive of masks than are others of the same party who have children in the household. The differences are minimal for independents and less than 10 points among Democrats.

Table 7: Support or oppose mask requirements in schools, by party and parental status, Sept. 2021

Party ID	Parent	Support	Oppose
Republican	Yes	33	67
Republican	No	46	54
Independent	Yes	67	33
Independent	No	68	32
Democrat	Yes	91	9
Democrat	No	98	2

Requiring students at public universities to be vaccinated is supported by 64% of respondents and opposed by 36%. Partisan views of this requirement are shown in Table 8. While over 60% of Republicans oppose this requirement, over 60% of independents support it. Nearly 9 in 10 Democrats favor requiring college students to be vaccinated.

Table 8: Support or oppose requiring vaccination for college students, by party identification, Sept. 2021

Party ID	Support	Oppose
Republican	38	62
Independent	62	38
Democrat	89	10

Views of the seriousness of the current level of coronavirus cases in the respondent’s state affect approval of Biden’s handling of the pandemic, even within party camps. Table 9 shows that approval of Biden’s response to coronavirus is over four times higher among Republicans who think the current level of the pandemic is a serious problem than it is among Republicans who think it is not. And among independents who think this, approval of Biden’s handling is double that of those who don’t. While Democrats have high approval of Biden’s response, it is also higher among those who think the current level of cases in their state is a serious problem.

Table 9: Approval of Biden response to coronavirus, by opinion whether coronavirus is a serious problem in the respondent’s state and by party identification, Sept. 2021

Party ID	Current COVID levels a serious problem	Approve	Disapprove
Republican	Serious problem	30	70
Republican	Not serious problem	6	93
Independent	Serious problem	67	33
Independent	Not serious problem	35	65
Democrat	Serious problem	93	6
Democrat	Not serious problem	80	20

There are large partisan differences in opinion among respondents as to whether the coronavirus is a serious current problem in their state. Republicans are evenly divided, while almost two-thirds of independents think it is serious, as well as 90 percent of Democrats, as shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Whether current level of coronavirus cases is a serious problem in the respondent’s state, by party identification, Sept. 2021

Party ID	Serious problem	Not serious problem
Republican	49	51
Independent	64	36
Democrat	90	10

In this survey, 76% say they have received at least one vaccine dose and 23% say they have not been vaccinated. As of the end of the survey field period, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported that 76% of those 18 years old or older had been vaccinated.

There are partisan differences in vaccination rates, shown in Table 11. Table 12 shows that these vaccination rates also are related to how serious a problem the respondent thinks the coronavirus is. Among the 50% of Republicans who think coronavirus is not a serious current problem in their state, fewer than half have been vaccinated. Among Republicans who think it is a serious current problem, more than 80 percent have received at least one dose of the vaccine. Such thinking of the current seriousness of the problem also accompanies higher vaccination rates for independents and Democrats.

Table 11: Vaccination status, by party identification, Sept. 2021

Party ID	Vaccinated	Not vaccinated
Republican	64	35
Independent	74	25
Democrat	90	9

Table 12: Vaccination status, by opinion whether coronavirus is a serious problem in the respondent’s state and by party identification, Sept. 2021

Party ID	Current COVID levels a serious problem	Vaccinated	Not vaccinated
Republican	Serious problem	84	16
Republican	Not serious problem	45	54
Independent	Serious problem	81	18
Independent	Not serious problem	60	39
Democrat	Serious problem	92	8
Democrat	Not serious problem	71	20

Reluctance to be vaccinated in the future remains high among the unvaccinated. Among those not yet vaccinated, 58% say they will definitely not get the shot and 24% say they probably won’t, with 17% saying they definitely or probably will get vaccinated.

Views on election accuracy continue to be sharp

Beliefs about the accuracy of the 2020 presidential election outcome continue to divide the population. Sixty percent say they are very or somewhat confident that the election votes were accurately counted, while 40% say they are not too or not at all confident about the election result.

While these views clearly divide partisans, there are also differences within the Republican Party among strong partisans and not so strong (“weak”) partisans and independents who lean to the Republican party. While the strongest Republican identifiers are nearly unanimous in saying they lack confidence in the election, that unanimity decreases as partisan strength declines, as shown in Table 13. The proportion of those who doubt the election outcome falls from over 9-in-10 among strong Republicans, to 3-in-4 among “weak” Republicans and just under 6-in-10 independents who lean to the Republican party. Among independents who don’t lean to either party, more than 6 in 10 express confidence in the election outcome, as do almost all Democrats of any strength of identification.

Table 13: Confidence in 2020 election count, by strength of party identification, Sept. 2021

Party ID	Confident	Not confident
Strong Republican	8	92
Weak Republican	29	71
Lean Republican	39	61
Independent	61	39
Lean Democrat	88	12
Weak Democrat	90	10
Strong Democrat	96	4

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted Sept. 7-16, 2021, interviewing 1,411 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-3.4 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available at https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/results-and-data/.