How important is enthusiasm among voters in determining the outcome of an election? Very, and the closer the election, the more important enthusiasm usually is because it indicates who will actually turn out to vote.

So how important are the “enthusiasm” results in the Marquette Law School Poll released Wednesday? That remains to be seen, starting with keeping an eye on the remaining rounds of polls that will be released before the Nov. 4 election.

But it is a sure bet that people working in the campaigns of Republican Gov. Scott Walker and his Democratic challenger, Mary Burke, are paying close attention to the new results. While the poll showed that the race for governor remains essentially tied, there was an uptick in how enthusiastic Walker supporters are and in the percentage of people who identified themselves as Republicans.

Overall, the poll found that Walker and Burke are tied at 46% each among registered voters. Among those considered likely voters (people who said they are registered and are certain to vote), Walker was supported by 49% and Burke 46%. In both cases, the outcomes were within the poll’s margins of error.

Professor Charles Franklin, director of the poll, said that in rounds of polling in July and August, Democrats were more likely to vote, but in the new round, Republicans had the advantage. Eighty percent of Republicans said they are certain to vote in November, up from 77% in August. Among Democrats, 73% said they are certain to vote, compared to 82% in August. The results among independents did not change much – 68% in August, 69% in September.

A second result worth noting: Among Republicans, 67% said they were “very enthusiastic” about voting, up from 59% in the previous month. Among Democrats, 60% said they were “very enthusiastic” in both August and September.

A third result: For the first time in 24 rounds of Marquette Law School Polls dating back to early 2012, more people identified themselves as Republicans than Democrats. Overall, 29% said they were Republicans, 28% said they were Democrats, and 41% said they were independents. In August, Democrats had the advantage by four points. That is also the overall Democratic advantage across all of the Marquette Law School polls. Among likely voters in the September poll, Franklin said, 32% said they were Republicans and 28% said they were Democrats.

“It’s unusual to see a five-point shift in partisan composition” from one month to the next, Franklin said. “People should be appropriately skeptical since it is always possible this sample is simply an outlier. However, the shift to more Republicans and fewer Democrats occurred across all regions of the state and most demographic groups, demonstrating that it was not a localized difference in response rates.”

Campaign strategies focus heavily on how to motivate turnout of those inclined to vote for their candidate. That is especially in a race where there are so few voters saying they are undecided. Lighting a fire under supporters is a key goal for both Burke and Walker. That means the enthusiasm indicators are something to watch as the remainder of the race unfolds.

Franklin said at the “On the Issues with Mike Gousha” event where the results were released that as the election gets closer, results involving “likely voters” will merit more attention than those involved “registered voters” since the likely voters are usually a better indicator of what will happen on election day.

The poll was conducted between Sept. 11 and 14 and included 800 registered voters and 589 likely voters. The margin of error among registered voters was +/- 3.5 percentage points and the margin among likely voters was +/- 4.1 points.

The full results of the poll may be found by clicking here.

The Registered and the Likely – maybe that could be the name of a political soap opera, although I doubt it would attract high ratings in the general public. But it would attract high ratings among those involved in election campaigns and those eager to understand those campaigns and politics overall.

New results from the Marquette Law School Poll, released Wednesday, put the Registered and the Likely in the spotlight. Among 815 registered voters across the state, Republican Gov. Scott Walker led Democratic challenger Mary Burke 47.5 percent to 44.1 percent in the race for governor. But among 609 participants in the poll who were labeled likely to vote in November, Burke led Walker, 48.6 percent to 46.5 percent.

So who’s ahead, Walker or Burke? The best answer is that it’s too close to say – by both measures, the race is within the margin of error of the poll.

But that doesn’t mean the distinction between registered and likely voters is unimportant, as was shown in other results. Professor Charles Franklin, director of the Law School Poll, described them during the “On the Issues with Mike Gousha” event at which the poll results were unveiled.

As part of the poll, people are asked whether they intend to vote in November. Franklin said those who say they are certain to vote are considered likely voters. “As pollsters, we try to measure both opinions and the likelihood that voters will act on their opinions by voting,” Franklin said in the news release accompanying the poll. “Some registered voters may cast a ballot who today are not certain that they will; on the other hand, even among people registered who say they are absolutely certain to vote, we know that a portion of them won’t actually do so, for turnout on election day is invariably lower than the percentage who say they won’t miss the chance. Still, the differences in involvement and enthusiasm about voting are enormous between the likely voters, who say they are certain to vote, and those who admit there is at least some chance they will stay home from the polls. The difference in vote between likely voters and all registered voters is a measure of the roles turnout and enthusiasm play in the election and tells us which party, at the moment, is enjoying greater intensity.”

Franklin gave examples of the differences between the likely and less-voters in the new round of results.

One example: Among those likely to vote, 69 percent said they follow politics “most of the time.” Among the less likely, the number was 27 percent. A second example: Among likely voters, 26 percent said they had not heard or didn’t know enough about Burke to have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of her yet; among less likely voters, the figure was 61 percent. Also, less likely voters were more undecided about their choice for governor (14 percent) than likely voters (2 percent).

And the key to the two different overall outcomes was that less likely voters favored Walker over Burke by 50 percent to 31 percent, while likely voters favored Burke by the 2.1 percentage point margin listed above.

Building up turnout and taking advantage of the enthusiasm of supporters are central factors in how each campaign is being conducted. Voter turnout is always lower in a non-presidential election, and both campaigns will push in every way they can to get their core supporters to vote on Nov. 4. But one implication of the poll results is that the Walker campaign particularly will have reason to try to convince those who are less committed to voting and Burke campaign strategists will want to do whatever they can to make sure likely voters become actual voters.

The full results of the poll include the first public results on the attorney general’s race, which is clearly in its early stages when it comes to introducing each of the candidates to the public as a whole, as well as results on a range of policy issues facing Wisconsin. The full results may be found by clicking here.