MILWAUKEE — MILWAUKEE – In a new Marquette Law School Poll national survey, 66% of adults say that, if senators, they would support the nomination of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court, while 34% would oppose her nomination. She is seen as “very qualified” by 46% of the public and as “somewhat qualified” by 42%, while 12% see her as “not qualified.”

Support among Democrats is nearly unanimous, with about two-thirds of independents and 29% of Republicans in favor of her confirmation, as shown in Table 1.

All results in the tables below are stated as percentages; the precise wording of the questions can be found in the online link noted above.

Table 1: Support or oppose nomination of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court, by party identification

Party ID	Support	Oppose
Republican	29	71
Independent	67	32
Democrat	95	5

The survey was conducted March 14-24, 2022, interviewing 1,004 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Jackson’s confirmation hearings were conducted near the end of the survey period, with 837 interviews conducted before the hearings began and 167 interviews conducted after hearings began.

Those interviewed after the Senate confirmations hearings began were somewhat more likely to say they supported her confirmation: Jackson was supported by 64% of those interviewed before the hearings and by 72% after hearings had begun. Prior to the hearings, 44% said Jackson was very qualified, while after hearings began 52% said she was very qualified.

Support for Jackson’s appointment is 86% among Black adults, followed by Hispanic respondents at 76%. Support among white people is at 59%. See Table 2.

Table 2: Support or oppose nomination of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court, by race and ethnicity

Race/ethnicity	Support	Oppose
White	59	40
Black	86	14
Hispanic	76	24
Other/Multiple	71	28

Women are somewhat more supportive of Jackson’s confirmation than are men, with 69% of women favoring confirmation and 61% of men in support, as shown in Table 3.

Table 3: Support or oppose nomination of Ketanji

Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court, by gender

Gender	Support	Oppose
Male	61	39
Female	69	30

Support for Jackson’s confirmation also varies with the respondent’s political ideology. There is strong opposition among those who describe themselves as “very conservative,” while those who say they are “somewhat conservative” are close to evenly divided. Among moderates, nearly 70% support her nomination, and more than 90% of liberals do so, as shown in Table 4.

Table 4: Support or oppose nomination of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court, by self-described ideology

Ideology	Support	Oppose
Very conservative	27	72
Somewhat conservative	45	54
Moderate	69	30
Somewhat liberal	92	8
Very liberal	94	6

Effect of race and gender on views of Jackson

To test the connection of race and gender with views of Jackson, a random half of respondents were asked a question that described her as “nominated to be the first Black woman on the Supreme Court,” while the other random half were asked a question that described her as “nominated to replace Justice Stephen Breyer on the Supreme Court.”

When Jackson’s race and gender were mentioned, 69% supported her confirmation, compared to 62% when race and gender were not mentioned. The difference is not statistically significant, given the size of the difference and the sample size. These results are shown in Table 5.

Table 5: If you had a vote in the Senate, would you support or oppose the nomination of Ketanji Brown Jackson to the Supreme Court, by whether race and gender had been used in a previous survey question to describe her.

Race and gender experiment	Support	Oppose
Race and gender not mentioned	62	37
Race and gender mentioned	69	30

Similarly, on the matter of views of her qualifications, there was no statistically significant difference in public opinion when her race and gender had been previously mentioned, as shown in Table 6.

Table 6: Do you think Ketanji Brown Jackson is very qualified, somewhat qualified, or not qualified to serve on the Supreme Court, by whether race and gender had been used in a previous question to describe her.

Race and gender experiment	Very qualified	Somewhat qualified	Not qualified	Skipped
Race and gender not mentioned	45	41	14	0
Race and gender mentioned	47	43	9	1

Favorable and unfavorable views of Jackson and current justices

With the spotlight focused on Jackson as a nominee to the Court, the public is more willing to give her a favorable or unfavorable rating than they are for any of the current justices. The public has quite favorable views of Jackson—44% favorable to 18% unfavorable—although 38% say they don’t know enough about her to express an opinion. Table 7 shows Jackson’s favorability ratings along with those of the current justices, as measured in the Marquette Law School Poll’s national survey in January. She is both better known and has a higher net favorability rating than anyone currently on the Court.

Table 7: Recognition and favorability ratings of Ketanji

Brown Jackson and of current justices. (Jackson measured in March, justices measured in January 2022)

Justice	Able to rate	Net favorability	Favorable	Unfavorable
Stephen Breyer	21	7	14	7
Samuel Alito	26	6	16	10
Elena Kagan	28	8	18	10
Neil Gorsuch	29	1	15	14
John Roberts	38	12	25	13
Amy Barrett	46	-2	22	24
Sonia Sotomayor	50	20	35	15
Brett Kavanaugh	53	-11	21	32
Clarence Thomas	55	5	30	25
Ketanji Brown Jackson (nominee)	62	26	44	18

Justification for opposing a nomination

A minority, 40%, say a senator would be justified in voting against a qualified Supreme Court nominee, with no ethical problems, based on how the senator believes the nominee would decide cases on issues such as abortion, gun control, or affirmative action, while a majority, 59%, say voting against such a nominee would not be justified. Table 8 shows the trend on this question since 2019.

Table 8: If a nominee for the US Supreme Court is qualified and has no ethical problems, would US Senators be justified or not justified in voting against that nominee simply because of how they believe the Justice would decide cases on issues such as abortion, gun control, or affirmative action, trend since 2019.

Poll dates	Justified in voting against the nominee	Not justified in voting against the nominee
9/3-13/19	37	61
9/8-15/20	41	58
3/14-24/22	40	59

A smaller minority, 17%, think a senator would be justified in voting against a qualified nominee simply because the senator is of a different party from the nominating president, while 82% say this would not be justifiable. The trend in this opinion is shown in Table 9.

Table 9: If a nominee for the US Supreme Court is qualified and has no ethical problems, would US Senators be justified or not justified in voting against that nominee simply because the Senator is from a different political party from the president who made the nomination, trend since 2019.

Poll dates	Justified in voting against the nominee	Not justified in voting against the nominee
9/3-13/19	19	79
9/8-15/20	21	78
3/14-24/22	17	82

When Republican Donald Trump was in the White House, Republicans were less likely to say it was appropriate to reject a nominee on policy grounds, but that percentage rose substantially this year, with Democrat Joe Biden as president. Similarly, more Democrats thought it appropriate to reject nominess on policy grounds when Trump was president than they do now with Biden. Independents show little difference between the Trump and Biden presidencies. These differences are shown in Table 10.

Table 10: If a nominee for the US Supreme Court is qualified and has no ethical problems, would US Senators be justified or not justified in voting against that nominee simply because of how they believe the Justice would decide cases on issues such as abortion, gun control, or affirmative action, by party trend since 2019.

Party ID	Poll dates	Justified in voting against the nominee	Not justified in voting against the nominee
Republican	9/3-13/19	36	63
Republican	9/8-15/20	39	60
Republican	3/14-24/22	58	42
Independent	9/3-13/19	33	66
Independent	9/8-15/20	36	62
Independent	3/14-24/22	38	62
Democrat	9/3-13/19	43	55
Democrat	9/8-15/20	47	52
Democrat	3/14-24/22	29	71

To return to the matter of views on rejecting nominees purely on party grounds (as opposed to beliefs about decisions on cases), there is less change within the parties, as shown in Table 11, although Democrats became more strongly opposed to rejecting due to party in 2022.

Table 11: If a nominee for the US Supreme Court is qualified and has no ethical problems, would US Senators be justified or not justified in voting against that nominee simply because the Senator is from a different political party from the president who made the nomination, by party trend since 2019.

Party ID	Poll dates	Justified in voting against the nominee	Not justified in voting against the nominee
Republican	9/3-13/19	20	79
Republican	9/8-15/20	21	79
Republican	3/14-24/22	23	76
Independent	9/3-13/19	17	81
Independent	9/8-15/20	17	81
Independent	3/14-24/22	17	82
Democrat	9/3-13/19	21	76
Democrat	9/8-15/20	24	74
Democrat	3/14-24/22	13	87

Importance of Court appointments

Democrats rate the importance of the appointment to the Court somewhat higher than do Republicans, a change from 2019 when both parties rated Court nominations as equally important. In the current March survey, 61% of Democrats said the nomination was very important to them, compared to 44% of Republicans. In the September 2019 Marquette poll, 54% of Democrats and 53% of Republicans said a Court appointment was very important to them. At the time of the 2019 survey, there was no vacancy or pending nomination.

Perception of shifts in the Court

If she is confirmed, 13% of respondents think Jackson would make the Court much more liberal, 33% say somewhat more liberal, and 45% think she would not change the Court much. Six percent think she would make the Court somewhat more conservative, and 2% say she would make it much more conservative.

Asked how the Supreme Court has changed over the last 15 years, 19% say it has gotten much more conservative, 31% say somewhat more conservative, 17% somewhat more liberal, and 3% say it has gotten much more liberal. Thirty percent say it hasn’t changed much. These perceptions are different by party, with Republicans more likely to see the Court as having shifted to the left, despite an increased majority of justices appointed by Republican presidents. Table 12 shows the perceived shifts in the Court by party identification. Fully 37% of Republicans see the Court as having become somewhat or much more liberal, a view held by 19% of independents and 6% of Democrats. Conversely, 69% of Democrats say the Court has gotten somewhat or much more conservative, as do 48% of independents and 29% of Republicans.

Table 12: Perceived shift in Supreme Court ideology over past 15 years, by party identification.

Party ID	Much more conservative	Somewhat more conservative	Hasn’t changed much	Somewhat more liberal	Much more liberal
Republican	6	23	33	32	5
Independent	15	33	32	15	4
Democrat	35	34	24	6	0

Some of these perceptual differences are due to limitations in knowledge of the makeup of the Court.

To begin: Overall, 71% of respondents say that probably or definitely a majority of the justices were appointed by Republican presidents, while 29% think the majority were probably or definitely appointed by Democratic presidents. (Six of the nine current justices were appointed by Republican presidents, a total that will not change if Brown is confirmed.) Among Republicans, 29% think a majority of justices were appointed by Democratic presidents, a view held by 31% of independents and 23% of Democrats, as shown in Table 13.

Table 13: Perceived majority of Court appointments, by party identification.

Party ID	Definitely a majority appointed by Democratic presidents	Probably a majority appointed by Democratic presidents	Probably a majority appointed by Republican presidents	Definitely a majority appointed by Republican presidents
Republican	4	25	48	22
Independent	4	27	48	20
Democrat	5	18	44	33

Table 14 shows the differences in perceived shifts of the Court by respondents’ partisanship and their perceptions of which party’s president made a majority of appointments. Across each partisan category, those who understand that a majority of justices have been appointed by Republican presidents are more likely to see the Court as having shifted to the right than are those who erroneously believe a majority to have been appointed by Democratic presidents. Even so, Republicans who know that there is a Republican-appointed majority are much less likely to perceive a shift in a conservative direction than are independents or Democrats.

Table 14: Perceived shift of the Court, by perceived majority of Court appointments and by party identification.

Party ID	Perceived majority	More conservative	Hasn’t changed	More liberal
Republican	Democratic majority	18	30	51
Republican	Republican majority	34	35	31
Independent	Democratic majority	24	46	30
Independent	Republican majority	59	26	15
Democrat	Democratic majority	56	31	13
Democrat	Republican majority	74	22	4

When asked to place the current Court on an ideological scale, 15% say it is very conservative, 37% somewhat conservative, 36% moderate, 10% somewhat liberal, and 2% very liberal. Collapsing these categories into conservative, moderate, and liberal finds an increase in the percentage saying the Court is conservative following the appointment of Justice Amy Coney Barrett after the September 2020 poll was conducted.

Table 15: Perceived ideology of the Supreme Court, trend since 2019.

Poll dates	Conservative	Moderate	Liberal
9/3-13/19	38	50	11
9/8-15/20	35	54	11
7/16-26/21	50	42	7
9/7-16/21	51	40	9
11/1-10/21	51	39	9
1/10-21/22	54	35	10
3/14-24/22	52	36	12

The trend in greater numbers seeing the Court as conservative exists both among those who believe there is a majority of justices appointed by Democratic presidents and among those aware that there is a majority appointed by Republican presidents, with the latter group continuing to hold this view of the Court’s ideology in greater absolute numbers (all as shown in Table 16 (a) and Table 16 (b)).

Table 16: Perceived ideology of the Supreme Court, by perceived majority

(a) Among those who believe there is a Democratic-appointed majority on the Court

Poll dates	Conservative	Moderate	Liberal
9/3-13/19	17	61	22
9/8-15/20	16	59	25
7/16-26/21	25	63	12
9/7-16/21	27	52	21
11/1-10/21	32	52	15
1/10-21/22	22	52	26
3/14-24/22	32	47	21

(b) Among those who believe there is a Republican-appointed majority on the Court

Poll dates	Conservative	Moderate	Liberal
9/3-13/19	47	46	7
9/8-15/20	44	51	5
7/16-26/21	59	35	6
9/7-16/21	59	36	5
11/1-10/21	59	35	7
1/10-21/22	64	30	6
3/14-24/22	60	32	8

Perceptions of trends in Court rulings

While few citizens outside the legal profession read Supreme Court decisions, the public does develop an impression of the direction the Court takes over time. Across several topics, Table 17 shows how the public thinks the Court has expanded or reduced the rights of people in various groups over the past “15 years or so.”

Table 17: Perception of the expansion or reduction of rights.

Rights protected for…	Expanded rights	Reduced rights	Net expanded	Has not changed much either way
LGBT people	71	14	57	15
Campaign donors	40	12	28	48
Minority voters	36	25	11	39
Religious people and organizations	31	23	8	46
Gun owners	29	28	1	43
Abortion seekers	19	49	-30	31

Approval of the way the Court is handling its job

In the March survey, 54% approve of the way the Court is handling its job, while 45% disapprove. The trend in Court approval is shown in Table 18. After a drop in September 2021, public approval of the Court’s handling of its job has recovered slightly but remains below the levels of July 2021 or September 2020.

Table 18: Approve or disapprove of the way the Supreme Court is handling its job, September 2020-March 2022

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove	Refused
9/8-15/20	66	33	1
7/16-26/21	60	39	1
9/7-16/21	49	50	1
11/1-10/21	54	46	1
1/10-21/22	52	46	2
3/14-24/22	54	45	1

Partisan differences in approval of the Court are shown in Table 19. While other views of the Court show sharper differences (such as in Table 1 for Jackson’s confirmation or on specific cases as shown below), approval is somewhat less partisan, with a near-even split in approval among Democrats and independents and a substantial majority approval among Republicans but more than a third of Republicans disapproving.

Table 19: Approve or disapprove of the way the Supreme Court is handling its job, by party, March 2022

Party ID	Approve	Disapprove	Refused
Republican	64	36	0
Independent	51	48	2
Democrat	52	48	0

Opinion of possible future Court decisions

There has been only slight variation in opinion on overturning the Roe v. Wade abortion-rights decision since September 2021, as shown in Table 20. The percentages in the table show results among those with an opinion of the case.

Table 20: Overturn Roe v. Wade, thus strike down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states, among those with an opinion, September 2021-March 2022

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
9/7-16/21	28	72
11/1-10/21	30	70
1/10-21/22	28	72
3/14-24/22	32	68

There are sharp partisan differences in opinion about Roe, as shown in Table 21.

Table 21: Overturn Roe v. Wade, thus strike down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states, among those with an opinion, by party identification, March 2022

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	68	32
Independent	31	69
Democrat	8	92

Consideration of race in college admissions is at issue in two cases the Court has accepted for argument in the October 2022 term. Strong majorities of those with an opinion favor a Court decision that colleges cannot consider race as one of several factors in admissions. The trend of this issue is shown in Table 22.

Table 22: Rule that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit, among those with an opinion, September 2021-March 2022

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
9/7-16/21	81	19
3/14-24/22	75	25

Differences in opinion on use of race in admissions by party are shown in Table 23.

Table 23: Rule that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit, among those with an opinion, by party, March 2022

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	89	11
Independent	76	24
Democrat	58	42

Differences by race and ethnicity are shown in Table 24. More than three-quarters of white respondents, more than two-thirds of Hispanic respondents, and more than half of Black respondents would favor a ruling by the Court against the use of race in college admissions, as would 8-in-10 of those with other or multiple-race backgrounds.

Table 24: Rule that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit, by race and ethnicity, among those with an opinion, March 2022

Race and ethnicity	Favor	Oppose
White	79	21
Black	58	42
Hispanic	70	30
Other/Multiple	81	19

Another case the Court has accepted for a future decision concerns whether a business can, based on religious or free speech rights, refuse to provide some services to gay people. A majority of those with an opinion on this are opposed to a decision that would allow such a refusal of services, as shown in Table 25.

Table 25: Decide that a business owner’s religious beliefs or free speech rights can justify refusing some services to gay people, among those with an opinion, March 2022

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
3/14-24/22	39	61

Party differences on this are shown in Table 26.

Table 26: Decide that a business owner’s religious beliefs or free speech rights can justify refusing some services to gay people, among those with an opinion, by party, March 2022

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	70	30
Independent	39	61
Democrat	14	86

The Court is expected to decide a case on the scope of the Second Amendment this term concerning the right to possess a gun outside the home. Table 27 shows the trend in opinion on this case.

Table 27: Rule that the 2nd Amendment right to “keep and bear arms” protects the right to carry a gun outside the home, among those with an opinion, September 2021-March 2022

Poll dates	Favor	Oppose
9/7-16/21	63	37
11/1-10/21	65	35
1/10-21/22	67	33
3/14-24/22	63	37

Party differences on the extent of Second Amendment rights are shown in Table 28.

Table 28: Rule that the 2nd Amendment right to ‘keep and bear arms’ protects the right to carry a gun outside the home, among those with an opinion, by party March 2022

Party ID	Favor	Oppose
Republican	90	10
Independent	70	30
Democrat	28	72

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The survey was conducted March 14-24, 2022, interviewing 1,004 adults nationwide, with a margin of error of +/-4 percentage points. Interviews were conducted using the SSRS Opinion Panel, a national probability sample with interviews conducted online. The detailed methodology statement, survey instrument, topline results, and crosstabs for this release are available at https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/results-and-data/. Some items from this survey, on other topics, are held for release one day later.

Wording of questions about possible future Supreme Court decisions: These items do not attempt to exactly frame the particular issues in specific cases but rather address the topic in more general terms.

Do you favor or oppose the following possible future Supreme Court decisions, or haven’t you heard enough about this to have an opinion?. .

• Overturn Roe versus Wade, thus strike down the 1973 decision that made abortion legal in all 50 states.
• Rule that colleges cannot use race as one of several factors in deciding which applicants to admit.
• Decide that a business owner’s religious beliefs or free speech rights can justify refusing some services to gay people.
• Rule that the 2nd Amendment right to “keep and bear arms” protects the right to carry a gun outside the home.

MILWAUKEE — With just more than five months until Wisconsin’s Aug. 9 primary election, a new Marquette Law School Poll survey of state voters finds that about half of both Republican and Democratic voters say they don’t know whom they support in the races for the Democratic nomination for the U.S. Senate and the Republican nomination for governor.

Small percentages of voters have opinions about any of the candidates with two exceptions. Even in the case of those two candidates, no more than half of voters have an opinion, favorable or unfavorable.

The poll finds 51% of registered voters saying they don’t know whom they will support in the Republican primary for governor or the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. Forty-six percent say they support one of the current candidates, with the remainder saying they won’t vote in a primary or will vote for someone else or declining to say.

It is not unusual to see half of registered voters undecided with more than five months to go before the primary, but the high percentage of undecided is a vivid reminder that the primaries are not uppermost in voters’ minds at this point. Among those who say they are “very enthusiastic” about voting this year, 53% have a primary-vote choice, but 43% say they don’t know whom they will support. Among those less enthusiastic about voting, 35% have a chosen candidate and 63% don’t know whom they will support.

This poll interviewed 802 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone Feb. 22-27, 2022. The margin of error is +/-3.8 percentage points for the full sample. Some items were asked of half the sample. Primary-vote choices have a sample size of 363 for the Republican primary and 354 for the Democratic primary, with margins of error of +/-5.8 and +/-5.7 for the Republican and Democratic primaries respectively. Republican primary voters include Republicans and independents who lean Republican plus independents who do not lean to either party but who say they will vote in the Republican primary; similarly for “Democratic primary voters.”

Republican and Democratic primary voters are about equally unsure of their primary preferences. In the Republican gubernatorial primary, 54% are unsure of their choice, and 48% of Democratic voters unsure of their U.S. Senate primary vote.

The candidates are not yet familiar to most voters. Table 1 shows the percentage of voters who say they haven’t heard enough or can’t give a favorable or unfavorable opinion with respect to each Republican primary candidate. Rebecca Kleefisch is the best known, although half of voters are unable to say if they have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of her. Some 80% lack an opinion of Kevin Nicholson, and 86% are unable to rate Tim Ramthun. The candidates are only a little better known among Republicans and independents who say they will vote in the Republican primary, as shown in Table 2.

Table 1: Name recognition and favorability of Republican candidates, among all registered voters

Name	Haven’t heard or don’t know	Favorable	Unfavorable
Rebecca Kleefisch	50	23	26
Kevin Nicholson	80	10	9
Tim Ramthun	86	4	9

Table 2: Name recognition and favorability of Republican candidates, among Republicans and independents voting in the Republican primary

Name		Haven’t heard or don’t know	Favorable	Unfavorable
Rebecca Kleefisch		50	39	10
Kevin Nicholson		73	18	8
Tim Ramthun		84	5	10

Kleefisch and Nicholson have run for political office previously and were better known during those campaigns. Table 3 shows Kleefisch’s favorability in Marquette Law School Poll surveys since 2012, and Table 4 shows Nicholson’s ratings during his 2018 primary campaign for U.S. Senate.

Table 3: Trend in Kleefisch name recognition and favorability, among all registered voters

Poll dates	Haven’t heard or don’t know	Favorable	Unfavorable
May 9-12, 2012	44	25	31
May 23-26, 2012	36	30	33
Oct. 9-12, 2014	45	29	25
Sept. 24-28, 2015	49	21	29
Oct. 3-7, 2018	42	32	26
Oct. 24-28, 2018	40	32	27
Feb. 22-27, 2022	50	23	26

Table 4: Trend in Nicholson name recognition and favorability, among all registered voters

Poll dates	Haven’t heard or don’t know	Favorable	Unfavorable
Feb. 25-3/1, 2018	85	7	7
June 13-17, 2018	69	18	13
July 11-15, 2018	69	17	14
Feb. 22-27, 2022	80	10	9

Among Democratic primary candidates, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes is the best known, followed by Alex Lasry, although both are unfamiliar to more than 60% of registered voters, as shown in Table 5. Table 6 shows familiarity and favorability among Democrats and independents who say they will vote in the Democratic primary.

Table 5: Name recognition and favorability of Democratic candidates, among all registered voters

Name	Haven’t heard or don’t know	Favorable	Unfavorable
Mandela Barnes	62	22	14
Alex Lasry	73	16	10
Tom Nelson	85	7	8
Sarah Godlewski	88	5	6
Chantia Lewis	90	4	5
Darrell Williams	93	3	3
Adam Murphy	93	3	3
Gillian Battino	93	3	3
Kou Lee	93	3	3
Jeff Rumbaugh	94	3	3
Steven Olikara	94	2	3
Peter Peckarsky	94	1	5

Table 6: Name recognition and favorability of Democratic candidates, among Democrats and independents voting in the Democratic primary

Name	Haven’t heard or don’t know	Favorable	Unfavorable
Mandela Barnes	53	43	4
Alex Lasry	65	29	6
Tom Nelson	81	11	7
Sarah Godlewski	84	10	6
Chantia Lewis	89	7	3
Kou Lee	92	5	2
Peter Peckarsky	93	2	4
Darrell Williams	94	4	2
Jeff Rumbaugh	94	3	3
Steven Olikara	94	3	2
Gillian Battino	95	4	2
Adam Murphy	95	3	2

Barnes’ familiarity and favorability have been measured in four Marquette polls since 2018, with the trend shown in Table 7.

Table 7: Trend in Barnes’ name recognition and favorability, among all registered voters

Poll dates	Haven’t heard or don’t know	Favorable	Unfavorable
Oct. 3-7, 2018	76	14	9
Oct. 24-28, 2018	78	13	8
Jan. 16-20, 2019	76	16	7
Feb. 22-27, 2022	62	22	14

Primary vote choice

The best-known candidates are leading their respective primaries at this early stage of the campaign. Among Republicans and independents who say they will vote in the Republican primary, Rebecca Kleefisch is the choice of 30%, Kevin Nicholson is preferred by 8%, Tim Ramthun is supported by 5%, and 54% say they don’t know whom they will vote for. Table 8 shows all response categories.

Table 8: Vote choice in Republican gubernatorial primary, among Republicans and independents who say they will vote in the Republican primary

Response	Percent
Rebecca Kleefisch	30
Kevin Nicholson	8
Tim Ramthun	5
Someone else	1
Will not vote in Republican primary	1
Don’t know	54
Refused	2

In the Democratic U.S. Senate primary, Mandela Barnes is supported by 23%, Alex Lasry is supported by 13%, Tom Nelson is the choice of 5%, and Sarah Godlewski is preferred by 3%. The full set of candidate preferences is shown in Table 9.

Table 9: Vote choice in Democratic gubernatorial primary, among Democrats and independents who say they will vote in the Democratic primary, by percentage (*=less than .5%)

Response	Percent
Mandela Barnes	23
Alex Lasry	13
Tom Nelson	5
Sarah Godlewski	3
Chantia Lewis	2
Adam Murphy	2
Gillian Battino	1
Peter Pecarsky	*
Darrell Williams	*
Kou Lee	0
Steven Olikara	0
Jeff Rumbaugh	0
Won’t vote in this primary	3
Don’t know	48

Approval ratings

Forty-three percent of voters approve of the job President Joe Biden is doing, 52% disapprove, and 3% say they don’t know. The trend in Biden’s approval is shown in Table 10.

Table 10: Biden approval trend, August 2021-February 2022

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused
Aug. 3-8, 2021	49	46	4	0
Oct. 26-31, 2021	43	53	4	1
Feb. 22-27, 2022	43	52	3	2

Gov. Tony Evers’ job approval stands at 50%, while 41% disapprove. When last measured in October 2021, 45% approved and 46% disapproved. The trend in Evers’ job approval is shown in Table 11.

Table 11: Evers approval trend, January 2019-February 2022

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused
Jan. 16-20, 2019	39	22	38	1
April 3-7, 2019	47	37	15	0
Aug. 25-29, 2019	54	34	10	1
Oct. 13-17, 2019	52	34	13	1
Nov. 13-17, 2019	47	42	10	1
Dec. 3-8, 2019	50	38	11	1
Jan. 8-12, 2020	51	40	9	0
Feb. 19-23, 2020	51	38	10	1
March 24-29, 2020	65	29	6	1
May 3-7, 2020	59	33	7	1
June 14-18, 2020	54	38	6	1
Aug. 4-9, 2020	57	37	6	0
Aug. 30-9/3, 2020	51	43	5	2
Sept. 30-Oct. 4, 2020	52	42	5	1
Oct. 21-25, 2020	50	43	7	0
Aug. 3-8, 2021	50	43	7	0
Oct. 26-31, 2021	45	46	8	1
Feb. 22-27, 2022	50	41	8	1

The Wisconsin legislature has a job approval rate of 37%, while 46% disapprove and 16% say they don’t know. The trend in approval of the legislature is shown in Table 12.

Table 12: Approval of the Wisconsin legislature trend, January 2019-February 2022

Poll dates	Approve	Disapprove	Don’t know	Refused
Jan. 16-20, 2019	52	31	16	1
April 3-7, 2019	50	38	11	1
Aug. 25-29, 2019	52	38	8	1
Nov. 13-17, 2019	48	39	13	0
Feb. 19-23, 2020	46	40	13	1
May 3-7, 2020	46	40	13	1
Oct. 21-25, 2020	36	50	13	1
Aug. 3-8, 2021	39	48	13	1
Oct. 26-31, 2021	38	48	14	1
Feb. 22-27, 2022	37	46	16	2

Favorability

Sen. Ron Johnson is viewed favorably by 33% of voters and unfavorably by 45%, with 21% saying they haven’t heard enough or don’t know. The trend in favorability for Johnson since 2019 is shown in Table 13.

Table 13: Johnson favorability trend, January 2019-February 2022

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
Jan. 16-20/19	44	28	23	5	0
April 3-7/19	40	32	24	5	0
Aug. 25-29, 2019	40	29	25	6	0
Oct. 13-17, 2019	40	29	24	6	0
Nov. 13-17, 2019	39	29	24	7	0
Dec. 3-8, 2019	36	34	26	4	1
Jan. 8-12, 2020	39	29	28	3	0
Feb. 19-23, 2020	37	34	24	5	1
March 24-29, 2020	35	32	29	4	0
May 3-7, 2020	38	34	23	5	1
June 14-18, 2020	35	32	29	3	0
Aug. 4-9, 2020	33	35	27	4	0
Aug. 30-Sept. 3, 2020	32	36	28	5	0
Sept. 30-Oct. 4, 2020	35	31	27	7	0
Oct. 21-25, 2020	38	36	23	3	1
Aug. 3-8, 2021	35	42	20	3	0
Oct. 26-31, 2021	36	42	18	4	0
Feb. 22-27, 2022	33	45	17	4	1

Sen. Tammy Baldwin is rated favorably by 42% of voters and unfavorably by 36%, with 21% lacking an opinion of her. The trend in favorability to Baldwin since 2019 is shown in Table 14.

Table 14: Baldwin favorability trend, January 2019-February 2022

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
Jan. 16-20, 2019	45	41	11	3	0
April 3-7, 2019	44	43	10	3	0
Aug. 25-29, 2019	44	40	13	3	0
Oct. 13-17, 2019	46	39	11	3	0
Nov. 13-17, 2019	39	43	12	5	1
Dec. 3-8, 2019	42	39	14	3	1
Jan. 8-12, 2020	44	40	13	2	0
Feb. 19-23, 2020	43	40	13	3	1
March 24-29, 2020	40	39	16	4	0
May 3-7, 2020	45	37	14	3	1
June 14-18, 2020	40	38	19	3	0
Aug. 4-9, 2020	43	36	17	3	0
Aug. 30-Sept. 3, 2020	42	35	19	3	1
Sept. 30-Oct. 4, 2020	41	35	20	3	0
Oct. 21-25, 2020	44	36	15	4	0
Aug. 3-8, 2021	40	38	19	3	0
Oct. 26-31, 2021	38	39	19	3	0
Feb. 22-27, 2022	42	36	18	3	1

Assembly Speaker Robin Vos is not well-known statewide, despite his position and tenure as a legislative leader. This is in part a reflection of the fact that each member of the 99-seat Assembly represents just over 1% of the state population and is seldom well-known outside his or her district. Overall, 13% of Wisconsin voters have a favorable view of Vos, 28% have an unfavorable opinion, and 59% say they haven’t heard enough or don’t know. The trend in favorability to Vos is shown in Table 15.

Table 15: Vos favorability trend, January 2019-February 2022

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
Jan. 16-20, 2019	13	17	59	11	0
April 3-7, 2019	14	21	56	10	0
Aug. 25-29, 2019	15	20	52	13	0
Feb. 22-27, 2022	13	28	50	9	1

Unfavorability to Vos among Republicans and independents has increased a bit since 2019. The trends by party are shown in Table 16.

Table 16: Vos favorability by party trend, January 2019-February 2022

Party ID	Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	Jan. 16-20, 2019	21	6	62	11	0
Republican	April 3-7, 2019	22	6	60	11	0
Republican	Aug. 25-29, 2019	26	7	53	14	0
Republican	Feb. 22-27, 2022	21	16	56	7	1
Independent	Jan. 16-20, 2019	11	11	61	17	0
Independent	April 3-7, 2019	11	18	56	13	2
Independent	Aug. 25-29, 2019	6	20	65	9	0
Independent	Feb. 22-27, 2022	4	22	55	15	3
Democrat	Jan. 16-20, 2019	4	30	56	9	0
Democrat	April 3-7, 2019	5	37	51	7	0
Democrat	Aug. 25-29, 2019	5	32	50	12	0
Democrat	Feb. 22-27, 2022	8	41	42	8	1

Favorability to former President Donald Trump is at 36%, with an unfavorable opinion at 57% and 5% not expressing an opinion. Trump’s favorability trend is shown in Table 17.

Table 17: Trump favorability trend, January 2019-February 2022

Poll dates	Favorable	Unfavorable	Haven’t heard enough	Don’t know	Refused
Jan. 16-20, 2019	42	53	2	3	0
April 3-7, 2019	45	51	1	2	1
Aug. 25-29, 2019	42	53	1	3	1
Oct. 13-17, 2019	43	52	1	3	1
Nov. 13-17, 2019	46	50	2	1	1
Dec. 3-8, 2019	45	50	2	2	2
Jan. 8-12, 2020	46	51	0	1	1
Feb. 19-23, 2020	45	50	3	2	0
March 24-29, 2020	45	50	2	3	0
May 3-7, 2020	44	51	2	2	1
June 14-18, 2020	42	54	2	2	1
Aug. 4-9, 2020	42	55	2	1	0
Aug. 30-Sept. 3, 2020	42	54	2	1	1
Sept. 30-Oct. 4, 2020	42	53	2	2	0
Oct. 21-25, 2020	44	54	1	1	1
Aug. 3-8, 2021	38	55	3	4	1
Oct. 26-31, 2021	38	57	2	3	0
Feb. 22-27, 2022	36	57	2	3	2

Direction of the state

Thirty-nine percent of voters say the state of Wisconsin is headed in the right direction, while 53% say it is on the wrong track. In October 2021, 41% said it was moving in the right direction and 51% said it was on the wrong track. Negative views rose sharply in 2021 and have remained little changed. The trend in this opinion is shown in Table 18.

Table 18: Right direction or wrong track trend, January 2019-February 2022

Poll dates	Right direction	Wrong track	Don’t know	Refused
Jan. 16-20, 2019	57	33	10	0
April 3-7, 2019	52	40	8	0
Aug. 25-29, 2019	55	37	8	0
Oct. 13-17, 2019	53	39	7	1
Jan. 8-12, 2020	46	47	6	1
Feb. 19-23, 2020	52	39	8	0
Mar. 24-29, 2020	61	30	9	1
Aug. 3-8, 2021	39	52	9	0
Oct. 26-31, 2021	41	51	7	1
Feb. 22-27, 2022	39	53	8	1

Issue concerns

There is a high level of concern over inflation, with 68% saying they are very concerned and 28% saying they are somewhat concerned. Only 4% are not too concerned or not at all concerned about inflation. Worries about inflation rose from August to October 2021, and are up slightly in February 2022, as shown in Table 19.

Table 19: Concern over inflation trend, August 2021-February 2022

Poll dates	Very concerned	Somewhat concerned	Not too concerned	Not at all concerned	Don’t know	Refused
Aug. 3-8, 2021	49	35	11	3	0	0
Oct. 26-31, 2021	64	28	6	1	0	0
Feb. 22-27, 2022	68	28	3	1	0	0

Thirty-one percent said they are very concerned about unemployment, with 35% somewhat concerned, 20% not too concerned, and 13% not at all concerned. This question was not asked earlier. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Wisconsin’s unemployment rate was 2.8% in December 2021, the most recent available estimate before this survey.

Concern over illegal immigration has fluctuated but is currently about the same as in August 2021. The full trend is shown in Table 20.

Table 20: Concern over illegal immigration trend, August 2021-February 2022

Poll dates	Very concerned	Somewhat concerned	Not too concerned	Not at all concerned	Don’t know	Refused
Aug. 3-8, 2021	37	24	21	18	0	0
Oct. 26-31, 2021	43	25	19	12	1	0
Feb. 22-27, 2022	36	24	19	20	1	0

Concern over the coronavirus “here in Wisconsin” was lower than for the economic issues, with 27% saying they were very concerned, 34% somewhat concerned, 21% not too concerned, and 18% not at all concerned.

Concern about the coronavirus pandemic was asked concerning “the United States” rather than “here in Wisconsin” in earlier surveys. That previous trend is shown in Table 21.

Table 21: Concern over coronavirus in United States trend, March 2020-October 2021

Poll dates	Very concerned	Somewhat concerned	Not very concerned	Not concerned at all	Don’t know	Refused
Mar. 24-29, 2020	68	25	5	2	0	0
May 3-7, 2020	50	31	12	7	0	0
Oct. 26-31, 2021	40	34	14	11	1	0

The decision to close businesses and schools in 2020 due to the coronavirus is seen as an appropriate response by 61% but as an overreaction by 35%. The initial reaction was overwhelming support, which has declined over time, as shown in Table 22.

Table 22: View of closing schools and businesses due to coronavirus trend, March 2020-February 2022

Poll dates	Appropriate response	Overreaction	Don’t know	Refused
Mar. 24-29, 2020	86	10	3	0
May 3-7, 2020	69	26	4	1
June 14-18, 2020	72	25	3	0
Oct. 21-25, 2020	68	26	5	0
Aug. 3-8, 2021	62	35	2	1
Feb. 22-27, 2022	61	35	3	0

Fifty-three percent say they trust Evers as a source of information about the virus either “a great deal” or “a fair amount,” while 43% say they trust him not much or not at all. Thirty-one percent trust Johnson “a great deal” or “a fair amount” for coronavirus information, with 61% saying they trust him “not much” or “not at all.” The full set of response options for October 2021 and February 2022 is shown in Table 23 for Evers and Table 24 for Johnson.

Table 23: Trust Evers for coronavirus information trend, October 2021-February 2022

Poll dates	A great deal	A fair amount	Not much	Not at all	Don’t Know	Refused
Oct. 26-31, 2021	24	29	18	27	3	0
Feb. 22-27, 2022	26	27	17	26	4	1

Table 24: Trust Johnson for coronavirus information trend, October 2021-February 2022

Poll dates	A great deal	A fair amount	Not much	Not at all	Don’t Know	Refused
Oct. 26-31, 2021	13	26	16	38	7	0
Feb. 22-27, 2022	13	18	17	44	8	0

Education issues

The question of who should have the biggest role in determining public school curriculum produces varied answers, with 35% saying parents, 33% saying teachers, 13% saying school boards, and 9% saying superintendents and principals. Five percent say state legislators should have the major role in curriculum.

On this issue, there is a divide along party lines, with Republicans and independents giving parents the larger role and Democrats assigning it to teachers, as shown in Table 25.

Table 25: Who should play biggest role in school curriculum, by party, February 2022

Party ID	Teachers	School Boards	Parents	Superintendents and principals	State legislators	Don’t know	Refused
Republican	17	11	56	5	6	4	0
Independent	29	7	43	8	4	8	1
Democrat	53	16	9	14	5	4	0

A policy of “allowing all students statewide to use publicly funded vouchers to attend private or religious schools” is supported by 59% and opposed by 37%. When last asked in August 2020, the question was worded as to whether a respondent agreed or disagreed with a policy to “provide tax-funded vouchers to be used for private or religious schools.” At that time, 41% agreed with providing vouchers, and 49% disagreed with the policy.

A majority of respondents, 55%, say public schools are in worse shape than a few years ago, while 29% say they are in about the same shape, and 9% say they are better now. In August 2018, 44% said schools had gotten worse, 34% said they were about the same, and 15% said schools had gotten better.

Asked their opinion of the standards for education in Wisconsin schools, 47% of voters say the standards are lower than they should be, 31% say they are about where they should be, and 12% say they are higher than they should be. This is little changed from January 2014, when 47% said standards were too low, 32% said they were where they should be, and 15% said standards were too high.

Confidence in the 2020 election

Among all registered voters, 67% are very or somewhat confident the votes were accurately cast and counted in the 2020 election, while 31% are not too or not at all confident in the election accuracy. There are large partisan divisions shown in Table 26, but also some differences between Republicans and independents who lean Republican.

Table 26: Confidence in the accuracy of the 2020 election by party, February 2022

Party ID	Confident	Not confident	DK/Ref
Republican	38	61	2
Lean Republican	49	51	0
Independent	55	35	10
Lean Democrat	94	4	2
Democrat	96	3	1

There has been a decline in skepticism among Republicans since August 2021, while independents who lean Republican have remained evenly split. Independents who do not lean to a party became more skeptical of the election between August and October and then changed little in February. Democrats and independents who lean Democratic are overwhelmingly confident in the election accuracy. Table 27 shows these trends.

Table 27: Confidence in the accuracy of the 2020 election, by party trend, August 2021-February 2022

Party ID	Poll dates	Confident	Not confident	DK/Ref
Republican	Aug. 3-8, 2021	29	70	1
Republican	Oct. 26-31, 2021	33	64	4
Republican	Feb. 22-27, 2022	38	61	2
Lean Republican	Aug. 3-8, 2021	49	49	2
Lean Republican	Oct. 26-31, 2021	45	51	3
Lean Republican	Feb. 22-27, 2022	49	51	0
Independent	Aug. 3-8, 2021	79	15	6
Independent	Oct. 26-31, 2021	56	38	6
Independent	Feb. 22-27, 2022	55	35	10
Lean Democrat	Aug. 3-8, 2021	96	4	0
Lean Democrat	Oct. 26-31, 2021	94	5	0
Lean Democrat	Feb. 22-27, 2022	94	4	2
Democrat	Aug. 3-8, 2021	97	3	0
Democrat	Oct. 26-31, 2021	99	1	0
Democrat	Feb. 22-27, 2022	96	3	1

Marijuana legalization

Support for legalization of marijuana has grown since the question was first asked in 2013, with 61% in favor of legalization and 31% opposed now. The trend is shown in Table 28.

Table 28: Legalization of marijuana trend, October 2013-February 2022

Poll dates	Yes, legal	No, illegal	Don’t Know	Refused
Oct. 21-24, 2013	50	45	5	1
Mar. 20-23, 2014	42	52	6	0
Sept. 11-14, 2014	46	51	2	0
Jan. 16-20, 2019	59	35	7	0
April 3-7, 2019	59	36	4	1
Feb. 22-27, 2022	61	31	7	0

Support for legalization of marijuana has grown in each partisan group since 2013, with a slim majority of Republicans now supporting legalization, as shown in Table 29.

Table 29: Legalization of marijuana, by party identification trend, October 2013-February 2022

Party ID	Poll dates	Yes, legal	No, illegal	Don’t Know	Refused
Republican	Oct. 21-24, 2013	43	51	5	1
Republican	Mar. 20-23, 2014	29	66	5	0
Republican	Sept. 11-14, 2014	32	65	2	0
Republican	Jan. 16-20, 2019	42	52	5	0
Republican	April 3-7, 2019	41	56	3	0
Republican	Feb. 22-27, 2022	51	42	7	0
Independent	Oct. 21-24, 2013	49	51	0	0
Independent	Mar. 20-23, 2014	38	53	9	1
Independent	Sept. 11-14, 2014	45	53	1	1
Independent	Jan. 16-20, 2019	68	28	3	0
Independent	April 3-7, 2019	64	28	4	4
Independent	Feb. 22-27, 2022	60	28	11	1
Democrat	Oct. 21-24, 2013	53	41	5	1
Democrat	Mar. 20-23, 2014	55	39	5	1
Democrat	Sept. 11-14, 2014	61	37	3	0
Democrat	Jan. 16-20, 2019	72	19	8	1
Democrat	April 3-7, 2019	76	17	6	0
Democrat	Feb. 22-27, 2022	75	19	5	1

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School Poll is the most extensive statewide polling project in Wisconsin history. This survey interviewed 802 registered Wisconsin voters by landline or cell phone Feb. 22-27, 2022. The margin of error is +/-3.8 percentage points for the full sample.

Primary-vote choices have a sample size of 363 for the Republican primary and 354 for the Democratic primary, with margins of error of +/-5.8 and +/-5.7 for the Republican and Democratic primaries respectively. Republican primary voters include Republicans and independents who lean Republican plus independents who do not lean to either party but who say they will vote in the Republican primary; similarly for “Democratic primary voters.”

Some issue items were asked of half the sample. Those on Form A were asked of 400 and have a margin of error of +/-5.5 percentage points. Form B items were asked of 402 and have a margin of error of +/-5.4 percentage points.

Items asked of half-samples included on Form A concern for inflation, unemployment, illegal immigration, and coronavirus, plus opinion of school and business closures in 2020. Form B items included marijuana legalization, school curriculum, vouchers, whether schools had gotten better or worse, and whether school standards are too high or not high enough.

Favorability to some primary candidates was also asked of half the sample. These candidates were Battino, Olikara, Murphy, Lee, Lewis, Peckarsky, Rumbaugh and Williams. These items have a sample size of 400 or 402 cases and a margin of error of +/-5.5 percentage points.

The partisan makeup of the sample, including those who lean to a party, is 44% Republican, 43% Democratic, and 13% independent. The partisan makeup of the sample, excluding those who lean to a party, is 27% Republican, 25% Democratic, and 47% independent.

Since January 2020, the long-term partisan balance, including those who lean to a party, in the Marquette poll has been 45% Republican and 44 % Democratic, with 9% independent. Partisanship exuding those who lean has been 29% Republican and 28 % Democratic, with 41% independent.