Reruns? Should Biden or Trump run in 2024

Who wants a rerun in 2024?

A look at overall opinion shows that the public is not keen on either Biden or Trump running for president again in 2024. Of all registered voters interviewed in the November 2022 and January 2023 Marquette Law School Poll National surveys, 34% would like Biden to run and 29% would like Trump to run.

CandidateYesNo
Biden3466
Trump2971

Among only registered voters who consider themselves Democrats or independents who lean Democrat, 49% would like Biden to run. Among registered voters who are Republican or independent but lean Republican, 53% would like Trump to run.

Table 2: Like Biden or Trump to run by party (including leaners)

Party, with leanersYesNo
Republican/Lean Republican1981
Independent2476
Democrat/Lean Democrat4951

Party, with leanersYesNo
Republican/Lean Republican5347
Independent3466
Democrat/Lean Democrat694

This even split in both parties comes despite generally favorable views of both Biden and Trump among registered voters of their party. Biden is viewed favorably by 82% of registered Democrats and Trump is viewed favorably by 68% of registered Republicans.

Table 3: Favorability ratings of Biden and Trump by party (including leaners)

Party, with leanersFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Republican/Lean Republican6931
Independent355411
Democrat/Lean Democrat82162

Party, with leanersFavorable opinionUnfavorable opinionHaven’t heard enough
Republican/Lean Republican68302
Independent27666
Democrat/Lean Democrat3961

While Democrats are more favorable to Biden than Republicans are to Trump, there is reluctance among Democrats for a Biden run in 2024 even among those with a favorable opinion of him, 57% of whom wish him to run. Among Republicans who are favorable to Trump there is higher support for a run, 72%.

Table 4: Like to run by favorablity by party (including leaners)

FavorabilityYesNo
Favorable opinion5743
Unfavorable opinion1189

FavorabilityYesNo
Favorable opinion7228
Unfavorable opinion1090

Strength of partisanship also plays a role with Democrats more supportive of a Biden candidacy than are independents who lean Democrat, and likewise for Trump among Republicans compared to independents who lean Republican.

Table 5: Like Biden and Trump to run in 2024 by party identification, among registered voters

Party IDYesNo
Republican1882
Lean Republican2179
Independent2476
Lean Democrat3268
Democrat5644

Party IDYesNo
Republican5743
Lean Republican4159
Independent3466
Lean Democrat892
Democrat694

Among all registered voters, 42% say they would like neither Biden nor Trump to run in 2024, 28% would like Biden but not Trump to run and 24% would like Trump but not Biden. And only 5% would like to see a rerun of 2024.

Like Biden to runYesNo
Yes528
No2442

About the Marquette Law School Poll

The Marquette Law School poll interviewed 1716 registered voters nationwide November 15-22, 2022 and January 9-20, 2023. The combined sample has a margin of error of +/-2.8 percentage points. The sample of 775 Democrats and independents who lean Democrat has a margin of error of +/-4.1 percentage points. The sample of 750 Republicans and independents who lean Republcian has a margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points.

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When Claude Got Shot

Marquette Law School’s Andrew Center for Restorative Justice hosted a viewing of the Emmy award winning documentary When Claude Got Shot on February 1, 2023. The next day, February 2, the Center hosted a “talk back event” with Andrew Center Director Janine Geske moderating a discussion with co-producer and impact campaign advisor Santana Wilson Cole, and Claude Motley.

Claude discussed his experiences of being shot by Nathan King and his journey after the shooting which led to his restorative justice advocacy. Santana shared her experience filming the documentary, her relationship with Claude, and empathy towards Claude’s shooter, Nathan. Claude’s friend, Brad Lichtenstein directed and produced When Claude Got Shot. Santana joined the documentary team as an intern. The film highlights Claude’s journey and Nathan’s criminal justice proceedings.

Claude’s journey began when Claude returned to his hometown of Milwaukee, Wisconsin, for a high school reunion only to become a victim of gun violence. When two cars pulled up, Nathan, a 15-year-old, attempted to carjack Claude. Nathan got out of his car and while attempting to carjack Claude, shot Claude in the jaw. Claude fled in his vehicle, not realizing he was shot. The next day another victim shot Nathan while he was attempting yet another carjacking. As a result of those injuries, Nathan ended up being paralyzed from the waist down. Nathan and Claude ended up being treated at the same hospital, at the same time.

Claude and Santana described how the film follows Nathan’s juvenile court proceedings, which resulted in Nathan’s eventual transfer to be tried as an adult. Claude discussed how he was torn between his empathy and his anger. Nathan was given numerous chances to avoid being tried as an adult but absconded twice which resulted in his transfer to adult court.

Claude gave an impact statement asking the court to give Nathan a lighter sentence; however, despite that, the Judge gave him 12 years. Claude recalled conflicting emotions at Nathan’s sentencing. Most impactful for Claude was when Nathan was taken into the custody of the State and Nathan’s mother was prohibited from giving Nathan a hug because he now belonged to the State.

Claude eventually realized he wanted to sit down and talk to Nathan to express his forgiveness so; he reached out to Professor Geske. Claude was inspired by going through the restorative justice process with Nathan and, since the documentary, Claude opened his own non-profit for restorative justice reform in Charlotte, North Carolina. He wants to be a father figure for those struggling and wants to help others find peace. Despite push back from the community, Claude maintains his resilience in trying to advocate for those who cannot advocate for themselves.

Despite Santana’s anger toward Nathan for hurting Claude, she empathized with Nathan during the victim offender meeting. Santana reasoned that Nathan was only a kid, a kid who truly struggled, who likely felt alone, who did not have positive role models in his life, and who was lost. She has been inspired to advocate and assist juveniles as much as she can.  Santana advocates and helps educate communities on the impacts of gun violence.

Professor Geske ended the talk-back session with discussing Santana’s new projects all involving racial impact themes. Santana is currently managing and advising for multiple impact campaigns, filming, and directing her own short film, and writing a comedy series.

In 2021, Marquette University Law School established the Andrew Center for Restorative Justice, recognizing the generosity of Louis J. Andrew, Jr., and Suzanne Bouquet Andrew. The Andrew Center is intended to continue into the future the work of the Hon. Janine P. Geske, former justice of the Wisconsin Supreme Court, who led the Law School in establishing its former Restorative Justice Initiative in 2004. Restorative justice seeks particularly to help support victims and communities in the process of healing from the effects of crime.

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Polling of Trump and DeSantis and 2024

Nate Cohn has a look at widely varying polls on Trump 2024, including my @MULawPoll. Worth a read.

It is hard to get apples-to-apples comparisons. Different question (long list of candidates or DeSantis-Trump head-to-head), RVs or likely primary voters, Reps or Reps+Lean.

I’d also stress value of comparative favorability among Reps.

And comparison of ONE poll over time with same methodology each time removes noise due to multiple pollsters w varying methodology. This emphasizes trend change w most comparable data available

Favs in @MULawPoll national surveys:

Read more: Polling of Trump and DeSantis and 2024

Another trend for want Trump to run, and shows the difference between those who are more partisan Republicans and those independents who lean Rep. (How these are included or not also affects the cross-pollster comparison in Nate’s article.)

Here is a comparison of want Trump and want DeSantis to run by party ID for the latest, January 2023 @MULawPoll national poll (all these tweets are based on our national polls, not our Wisconsin only polls.)

I think the most revealing results we have in @MULawPoll is DeSantis is very appealing to PRO-TRUMP Republicans. His fav rating is strong with those Reps also fav to Trump & those Reps who want Trump to run. His threat to Trump is that he’s popular inside Trump’s house.

It is really important to stress we are watching a dynamic process as it unfolds, NOT predicting final outcomes. Trump is ramping up criticism of DeSantis. Does that change things in upcoming polls? When (if) DeSantis enters the race is another test.

There’s a long way to go.

Here is a link to Nate’s article in NYTimes today. By all means give it a read.

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