An Anything But Normal Election

In the press release for today’s Marquette University Law School Poll, you’ll find the following sentence: “Given the uncertainty created by historically high levels of absentee voting and the unknown levels of election day turnout, these results should be viewed with more than the usual caution.”

Poll Director Charles Franklin is referring specifically to the polling numbers in the Democratic presidential primary. But his note of caution seems wise as we careen toward next Tuesday’s election.

Put another way, we don’t know what we don’t know about this spring election.

After reporting, writing, and talking about Wisconsin politics for 40 years, I thought I had seen it all. I was wrong. (more…)

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One More Concern: Will Milwaukee Miss Its Moment?

This summer was going to be Milwaukee’s “coming out” party. With the Democratic National Convention coming to town in July, the Milwaukee Bucks poised to play for a championship, the rest of the country—even the world—would have a chance to see Milwaukee in a different way. As a city on the rise; as a community that never fails to surprise its visitors; as a place that turns new arrivals into the city’s biggest cheerleaders. It would be our chance to drive a stake through the heart of cringe-worthy, decades-long associations. Milwaukee: the home of Laverne and Shirley. Milwaukee: the home of Jeffrey Dahmer.

The DNC convention and the NBA playoffs have yet to be canceled. But the specter of the COVID-19 pandemic is real and makes you wonder. Will the coronavirus cause Milwaukee to miss its moment? More disturbing, could it reverse a new momentum in the city and exacerbate our most difficult challenges?

In a world of social distancing, stay-at-home orders, and ventilator shortages, those questions rightfully pale in comparison to life and death matters, and questions about how to deal with a serious public health threat. But in addition to thoughtful planning and strong civic leadership, a city’s destiny is determined by a fair amount of serendipity, or at the very least, good timing. Before the coronavirus hit, Milwaukee was poised for a very special summer. (more…)

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Five Lessons Democratic Presidential Candidates Might Learn from Tony Evers’ Victory

After what happened in Wisconsin in 2016, you can bet the current crop of Democratic presidential candidates won’t forget about the Badger state in 2020. Donald Trump’s narrow victory here played a key role in his stunning victory, and most political observers believe the president will need to win Wisconsin again to secure a second term.

But if what’s past is prologue, Democrats might want to remember not just what happened in Wisconsin in 2016, but what happened two years later, when Democrat Tony Evers defeated Republican Governor Scott Walker in a race that was decided by fewer than 30,000 votes. Let me explain. (more…)

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Remember Us?

It was a long time coming, but Wisconsin seems to have finally regained its “key battleground state” status in this year’s presidential election. At least for the moment, anyway.  For much of this election cycle, we’ve been missing out on the action, a second tier state that Democrats believed would be theirs on Election Day, never seriously in jeopardy.

If it takes two to tango, Wisconsin has been missing a dance partner.  While Republican nominee Donald Trump has been to Wisconsin five times, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton hasn’t been here once. It might be argued that given Clinton’s struggles in Wisconsin—a crushing primary loss in 2008 to then-Sen. Barack Obama and a 2016 April primary defeat which saw her lose 71 of 72 counties to Sen. Bernie Sanders—surrogates like Sanders and Chelsea Clinton might be more effective campaigners than the nominee herself. Whatever the reason, Clinton has focused her personal attention on other states. Her campaign only recently began running ads in Wisconsin, a true indicator of a state’s relative importance in the election.

But if you believe recent public opinion surveys in the first tier battleground states of North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio, the race has tightened considerably.  Wednesday, Real Clear Politics released its latest Electoral College “No Toss Ups” Map. Using the latest state-by-state polling, Clinton would squeeze out the narrowest of victories in the Electoral College, 273 votes for her, 265 for Trump.  (more…)

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Finally, a Little Good News for Governor Walker

 

We’ll leave it to others to analyze the results of the latest Marquette Law School Poll and what they tell us about the April 5 presidential primary.  Instead, let’s focus for a few moments on the other favorite political pastime in Wisconsin: Debating the fortunes of Governor Scott Walker.

His job approval rating remains well under water. But is it possible that the governor could be smiling, even just a little, after today’s release of the Law School survey?

At first glance, it’s yet another poll where Walker fares poorly.  Fifty-three percent of registered Wisconsin voters disapprove of Walker’s job performance.   Only 43 percent approve.  But the numbers are finally showing signs of improvement for Walker.  He hit a low of 37 percent job approval last fall, shortly after his presidential campaign flamed out.  Since then, his job approval number has hovered around 38 or 39 percent in Law School polling.  But the new survey shows Walker back in the low 40’s.   Nothing to shout about, but progress in what most observers see as a long, hard slog back to more solid political ground. (more…)

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