New Law School Poll Results Show Barrett Lead Over Falk Growing

With the Democratic primary for governor in its last week, new results for the Marquette Law School Poll, released Wednesday, show Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett opening a larger lead over his main opponent, former Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk, than was the case in March, before Barrett formally entered the race.

But there are still a lot of undecided likely-voters in the election set for May 8 – about 19% — which needs to be kept in mind, Professor Charles Franklin, director of the poll, said in an “On the Issues with Mike Gousha” session at Eckstein Hall.

Head-to-head poll results for a possible final election for governor on June 5 between Barrett and Republican Gov. Scott Walker indicate a race that is effectively a tie at this point. Results for both all registered voters and for those who say they are likely to vote put one percentage point between Barrett and Walker (in one case, with Barrett ahead, in one case with Walker ahead, and, in both cases, with differences that are clearly within the margin of error).

The poll results found Democratic President Barack Obama holding a nine point lead over Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, an increase from the March results. But Franklin said Wisconsin is shaping up as a state that will be in play in the fall presidential campaign.

Full results for the poll, including video of the session at which the results were released and Powerpoint slides of key results, can be found by clicking here.

 

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Baldwin Stakes Out Health, Tax Positions for Fall Senate Campaign

Two major policy differences between Tammy Baldwin, the only major Democratic candidate for the open US Senate seat, and any of the Republican candidates were clear when Baldwin sat down with Mike Gousha in an “On the Issues” session at Eckstein Hall this week. Both issues are almost certain to be in the spotlight when the race to succeed Democrat Herb Kohl heats up in several months. The two:

Health insurance. Baldwin, who represents south central Wisconsin, including Dane County, in the House of Representatives, supports the Affordable Care Act, while her opponents all want to see the law they call “Obamacare” repealed or overturned by the US Supreme Court. Baldwin told Gousha, the Law School’s distinguished fellow in law and public policy, “It’s not perfect, but it’s a step in the right direction that will lead to far greater coverage and, I hope, drive incredible improvements in quality, too.” She said that the plan for overhauling Medicare proposed by Republican Rep. Paul Ryan would be “a catastrophe” because it would eliminate guaranteed coverage for senior citizens. She said that as a child who was raised by her maternal grandparents and who had a major childhood illness that was not covered by their insurance, she learned early on the value of programs such as Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security.

Tax reform, including the “Buffet Rule.” Baldwin said she was one of the first members of Congress to propose passage of what has come to be known as the “Buffet Rule” which would require people who make more than $1 million a year to be taxed at at least a 30% rate. The term comes from statements from billionaire Warren Buffet that he pays a smaller percentage of his income in taxes than his secretary does. The proposal has become a hot issue, with President Barack Obama campaigning for it in recent days. Baldwin said she wanted members of Congress to take a straight up or down vote on whether they support the idea.

Asked by Gousha how she responds to those who say she is one of the most liberal members of Congress, Baldwin said she would describe herself as a fighter who is not afraid to take on big, powerful interests. She said she is an advocate for the middle class and for those with lower income.

As for how to cut the deficit, she said she advocated steps such as ending the American military involvement in Afghanistan, which would save large amounts of money, as well as tax reform that goes beyond the Buffet Rule proposal.

Baldwin appears to be on her way to an effectively uncontested path to getting on the November ballot. On the Republican side, four candidates are aiming to be on the a primary ballot in August. They are former Gov. Tommy G. Thompson, former Rep. Mark Neumann, State Assembly Speaker Jeff Fitzgerald, and businessman Eric Hovde.

Baldwin said she knows Thompson the best of the four – she served in the Legislature while he was governor –and worked well with him in those years. But, she said, she sees him now moving to the right in his positions. “The gulf is getting wider” between her and candidates such as Thompson, she said.

In 2010, incumbent Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold was defeated by Republican Ron Johnson. Asked by Gousha what that said about her chances in 2012, Baldwin said she thinks the electorate in 2012 is going to be very different than the electorate two years ago.

Video of the one-hour session may be viewed by clicking here.

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Low Profile Cases Show Supreme Court at Its Best, Justice Kagan Tells Students

Look to United States Supreme Court cases that don’t make front-page news if you want to see the workings and qualities of the court at its best, Justice Elena Kagan suggested in a session with more than 225 Marquette Law School students Tuesday.

Asked by a student to provide reasons to have faith in a divided court that often votes predictably, Kagan said, “I think you should have that faith.” She called the court “an inspiring institution” whose members struggle conscientiously with difficult issues.

Kagan, who joined the court in 2010, visited the Law School to take part in judging the annual Jenkins Honors Moot Court Competition for students. She also took part in an “On the Issues with Mike Gousha” conversation for an hour, answering questions from Gousha, the Law School’s distinguished fellow in law and public policy, and from students.

Kagan, of course, did not discuss pending matters before the Court, but, in a wide-ranging and informal conversation, she discussed the way the Court works, her perspective as a woman lawyer, her personal background, and other matters.

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