Why isn’t Racine part of the Milwaukee Metropolitan Statistical Area?

The Milwaukee Metropolitan Statistical Area (“The Milwaukee Metro”) consists of Milwaukee, Waukesha, Washington, and Ozaukee counties, but not Racine County. Why not? Racine County, home to Wisconsin’s fifth largest city, lies just to the south of Milwaukee County. The answer to this question reveals much about the economic geography of southeastern Wisconsin. Despite its close physical proximity to the Milwaukee Metro, Racine County still lacks economic integration with its neighbor to the north. There are doubtlessly many ways in which Racine is part of the “Greater Milwaukee Area,” but workforce connectivity (the key metric used to define metro areas) is not one of them.

Understanding core based statistical areas

Metropolitan Statistical Areas are a vital concept for understanding American cities because the legal boundaries of “central cities” vary so much from one place to another and because the cultural, economic and social web of a city extends well beyond wherever those political boundaries calcified. Since 1949 the federal government has defined what are currently called “core based statistical areas” (CBSAs). A CBSA containing at least one urbanized area with at least 50,000 or more residents is a “metropolitan statistical area.” Smaller CBSAs are “micropolitan statistical areas.” As the term “core-based” suggests, Micro- or Metro-politan areas are centered around one or more principal cities. The most populous municipality in each CBSA is a principal city by default, but additional cities are designated principal cities if they draw large numbers of commuters in their own right. The Los Angeles metropolitan area has 19 principal cities, for instance. The Milwaukee Metro has two principal cities–Milwaukee and Waukesha.

The boundaries of core based statistical areas are defined using commuter flows. There are two main ways for a place to be part of a CBSA. One way is to be a commuter hub–a principal city–drawing in workers from the rest of the region. In an MSA with multiple principal cities, each will act as an interconnected hub, with large numbers of workers commuting each direction every day. As I wrote in 2017, “Milwaukee city attracts the most workers—some 125,000 in total. Still, nearly 95,000 people leave the city for work every day. Thirty-thousand of them go to Waukesha county, while 30,000 in Waukesha commute to the city of Milwaukee. The net-worker balance between Milwaukee city and Waukesha county is virtually equal.” The other way for an area to be part of a CBSA is as a commuter suburb. Some places attract very few outside workers, but provide a large number of employees for other towns. Muskego in Waukesha county is a good example. Eighty-five percent of its workers commute somewhere else, and the town’s population shrinks by about 30% during the workday.

Few workers commute from Milwaukee or Waukesha to Racine

Given this criteria, Racine County is in an odd situation. Like Waukesha, it has a principal city of its own. Reflecting this, about two-thirds of workers from Racine and Waukesha counties alike commute to work within their county of residence. This is much more than Washington or Ozaukee counties where just half of commuters work in their county of residence. Again like Waukesha county, Racine county does send more than a few workers to the Milwaukee metro. Seventeen percent go to Milwaukee county and 6 percent to Waukesha. But this relationship is not reciprocal. Just 1 percent of Milwaukee county workers commute to Racine, compared to 14 percent going to Waukesha. Waukesha sends 28 percent of its workers to Milwaukee but just 1 percent to Racine.

Racine County has a one-way commuter relationship with the Milwaukee metro area. The City of Racine is a commuter hub locally, but its pull does not reach far. Thirteen Milwaukee county workers commute west to Waukesha county for every 1 who travels south to Racine County.

Racine doesn’t do much better with its southern neighbor Kenosha county, either. Kenosha county is classified as part of the Chicago MSA. About 27 percent of its workers travel to Illinois compared to just 11 percent who work in Racine.

The boundaries of metropolitan statistical areas are intended to describe reality, not shape it. In the future, Racine’s economy may become intertwined with Milwaukee’s in the same way that Milwaukee and Waukesha have grown into a single economic unit. The Foxconn project could be the catalyst needed to make this shift (if it is ever completed). In the meantime, however, Racine remains a close cousin, if not a sibling member of the Milwaukee Metro.

graphs showing commute flows between counties in SE Wisconsin

Continue ReadingWhy isn’t Racine part of the Milwaukee Metropolitan Statistical Area?

A majority still supports Wisconsin’s shutdown, but opposition and uncertainty are growing

During our late March survey, the Marquette Law Poll found remarkably strong and widespread support for the measures taken by state and local authorities in response to the COVID-19 outbreak. That support was reiterated in the online free-response interviews we conducted as a supplement to our phone polling.

Our latest poll, fielded in early May, finds that a majority of Wisconsin registered voters still support the mandatory shutdown and social distancing measures taken thus far. However, dissent is growing. At the end of March 86 percent said it was appropriate to close schools and businesses and to restrict public gatherings. Now, 69 percent agree. In March, 76 percent approved of Tony Evers’ handling of the crisis. Now 64% do. Approval of Donald Trump’s handling of the coronavirus outbreak has fallen 7 points to 44 percent. From March to May the percent “very concerned” about the pandemic declined from 68 to 50 percent, and the number “somewhat concerned” fell from 31 to 25. Likewise, the share of respondents “very” or “somewhat” worried about personally experiencing COVID-19 fell from 70 percent to 50.

We asked respondents, “Which concerns you more regarding the lockdown and stay-at-home restrictions? That we open up too soon or that we don’t open up soon enough?” A majority, 56 percent, are more worried that we open up too soon. But a substantial minority, 40 percent, are more concerned that the shutdown lasts too long.

table showing response to question by age, income, and party ID

Older people tend to be more concerned about opening up too soon than middle-aged and younger Wisconsinites. Only twenty-seven percent of those 65 and older are worried we open open up soon enough compared with 45 percent of those ages 40-64 and 46 percent of those under 40.

Wealthier Wisconsinites are more worried about the shutdown lasting too long. This is the top worry for 52 percent of those making at least $75,000, compared with 34% of those making $40,000 to $74,000 and 30 percent of those making fewer than $40,000 last year.

The largest difference is between members of the two parties. Seventy percent of Republicans are more worried that we will stay shut down too long, compared with 40 percent of Independents, and 11 percent of Democrats. Conversely, 86 percent of Democrats are more worried that we will open up too soon, along with 55 percent of Independents, and 26 percent of Republicans.

Partisanship interacts with income and age in different ways. One in four Democrats under the age of 40 is more worried about the shutdown lasting too long, compared to just 6 percent of Democrats 65 or older. Similarly, older Republicans are more worried about opening up too soon (38 percent) than younger Republicans (24 percent).

Income shows a different trend. Among Democrats there is no difference in relative concern by income level. Over 80 percent of wealthy and low income Democrats alike are more afraid of opening up too soon. Among Republicans, though, there are striking differences. Eighty-two percent of Republicans from families making at least $75,000 annually are more worried about the shutdown lasting too long, and 16 percent are worried we will open up too soon. Low income Republicans are much more divided. Fifty-two percent of Republicans making less than $40,000 last year express more worry about the shutdown going on too long, but 41 percent are more concerned it will end too soon.

table showing responses to question by age and income among Demcorats and Republicans

Notice that our question asks “which concerns you more?” As is clear from our open-ended interviews, many Wisconsinites painfully feel both worries. They worry about how they will cope financially and emotionally with an elongated shutdown. And they fear what will happen when the shutdown is lifted. Here are some of their voices. You can read all 200 interviews at https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/results-and-data/.

a woman in her 50s from Racine County, Independent

Most important problem COVID-19

How has the coronavirus outbreak affected you and your family? My husband has to work from home and I miss my alone time. His company’s business has slowed a bit so I worry about our finances if WI and the country don’t open back up soon.

What should the state and local government do to deal with the coronavirus outbreak? Encourage social distancing and healthy habits.

a woman in her 60s from Dodge County, Democrat

Most important problem Coronavirus

How has the coronavirus outbreak affected you and your family? Can’t go out to eat. Can’t go to church. Can’t go to work. Can’t do anything

What should the state and local government do to deal with the coronavirus outbreak? Get a vaccine and open up the economy

a woman in her 50s from Winnebago County, Republican

Most important problem Dictatorship from politicians who have no business to make rules about who can work, where we can and cannot go and broken promises of government assistance

How has the coronavirus outbreak affected you and your family? Put me out of work for 4 weeks

What should the state and local government do to deal with the coronavirus outbreak? Keep their nose out of our business

a woman in her 60s from Washington County, Democrat

Most important problem The lack of universal health care and minimum universal income.

How has the coronavirus outbreak affected you and your family? I stay at home and only go out once a week for groceries and therapy. It leaves me feeling isolated more often. I am also much moare anxious about the health of my family and myself.

What should the state and local government do to deal with the coronavirus outbreak? They should be sending more months of stimulus checks to families. Canada is sending $2000/month for 4 months. We should be doing that instead of hurrying to reopen states and in that way saying we don’t care how many more people die.

a man in his 30s from Waukesha County, Independent

Most important problem Loss of Freedoms

How has the coronavirus outbreak affected you and your family? Destroyed the last fraction of faith in humanity, I had left.

What should the state and local government do to deal with the coronavirus outbreak? Nothing. They should butt out of the lives of their slaves…citizens.

a man in his 50s from Kenosha County, Republican

Most important problem Coronavirus Covid 19

How has the coronavirus outbreak affected you and your family? Great Family time together but wife and kids in education field have been hit hardest

What should the state and local government do to deal with the coronavirus outbreak? Stay safe at home but I think it’s to open America again

a woman in her 20s from Milwaukee County, Independent

Most important problem Right now it is the corona virus. People’s lives and livelihoods are at stake.

How has the coronavirus outbreak affected you and your family? Most of us are not working right now. I am staying with my parents until the situation gets better.

What should the state and local government do to deal with the coronavirus outbreak? It’s tough to say. They aren’t handling it as well as they should be, but also things such as money are time sensitive. They should (and should have) been putting more focus on lower/middle class, smaller businesses.

a woman in her 30s from Milwaukee County, Independent

Most important problem Covid-19

How has the coronavirus outbreak affected you and your family? My husband is out of work and my children are home from school. Losing half our income isn’t ideal.

What should the state and local government do to deal with the coronavirus outbreak? I think they are taking to proper steps. Obviously, this is something that we have never dealt with and the government is learning along with the public. Something new appears everyday.

a woman in her 70s from Dodge County, Republican

Most important problem Virus 19

How has the coronavirus outbreak affected you and your family? Other than having to stay in not much. We are on social security so we still get our checks. My husband is on hospice so we weren’t going away much before. The only thing that has really changed is our family can’t visit and we miss that.

What should the state and local government do to deal with the coronavirus outbreak? Watch how many new cases are happening and start opening up going with that. We live in a rural area and there aren’t any cases in our immediate area. I think some area’s like hospital should start doing non emergency cases to start getting people back to work.

a woman in her 20s from Shawano County, Republican

Most important problem Power and greed, we the people are constantly being lied to and manipulated by the people in power. All so they can fill their bank account even more! Our leaders are not “for the people” they are “for the money”!

How has the coronavirus outbreak affected you and your family? Yes, I was laid off, then receiving unemployment benefits, then forced to go back to work because my employer got the PPP. Now they are taking advantage of free money by holding it over their employees heads and making us come back. Now they’re paying me almost HALF of what I was making before CV-19 and $400 less a week than I would have been getting on unemployment.

What should the state and local government do to deal with the coronavirus outbreak? My opinion changes daily of this virus because, again, we are constantly being lied to. We don’t know the actual truth so it’s very hard to say. Maybe open up but keep at-risk home?

a man in his 30s from Waukesha County, Democrat

Most important problem economy

How has the coronavirus outbreak affected you and your family? lower salaries & finances

What should the state and local government do to deal with the coronavirus outbreak? i have no idea; everything they are doing is going to hurt a lot of people financially

a woman in her 20s from Walworth County, Democrat

Most important problem The COVID19 pandemic and its management

How has the coronavirus outbreak affected you and your family? My father and mother were laid off, and I have been working in a very different environment since I’m employed at a nursing home.

What should the state and local government do to deal with the coronavirus outbreak? I think that both public safety and economics should be taken into account. Businesses should be open but with some restrictions.

a man in his 50s from Green Bay region, Leans Democrat

Most important problem Currently, the most important issue is the response to the coronavirus/COVID-19. Tens of thousands of people are dying. The country must rally to fight this horrible illness and the government must make its decisions and lead the country based on science

How has the coronavirus outbreak affected you and your family? I needed to have the test. Due to other conditions I have, I was presumed positive for the virus. Due to that, I was in isolation, in the hospital for 4 days.

What should the state and local government do to deal with the coronavirus outbreak? Continue to enforce physical distancing and stay-at-home policies. If we relax things too soon, it will result in higher infection and death rates

a woman in her 20s from Jefferson County, Democrat

Most important problem Definitely the COVID-19 virus

How has the coronavirus outbreak affected you and your family? I am currently unemployed and struggling financially and emotionally. My mom is very depressed and laid off.

What should the state and local government do to deal with the coronavirus outbreak? I sure don’t have all of the answers, but nothing has been enforced and people are not serious about social distancing.

a man in his 50s from Outagamie County, Republican

Most important problem economic and health disaster of Covid

How has the coronavirus outbreak affected you and your family? yes, we had to close a business down

What should the state and local government do to deal with the coronavirus outbreak? give clearer instructions on how and when business can open

a man in his 30s from Winnebago County, Republican

Most important problem The covid19 pandemic and getting our country back to normal.

How has the coronavirus outbreak affected you and your family? Not being able to see friends and family. Both our jobs are essential so that isn’t much of a change but changing what we like to do everyday has been hard. Also home schooling is a challenge.

What should the state and local government do to deal with the coronavirus outbreak? I think they are doing a fine job. Everybody needs to be patient with social distancing or this could all start over again.

a woman in her 20s from Waukesha County, Lean Democrat

Most important problem There are many, especially in times right now but I think unemployment and helping those who have been laid off etc. The process and time needs to be revised.

How has the coronavirus outbreak affected you and your family? Our hours have been shortened that we are open, so therefore mine have been too, so I am losing hours and pay.

What should the state and local government do to deal with the coronavirus outbreak? Always easier said then done, but another stimulus check would be really helpful. Or waiving student loans. As for re-opening businesses, restaurants etc. I feel no matter what is done, people are going to be upset. There will be consequences no matter what, so it’s a difficult situation for sure.

a woman in her 30s from Milwaukee County, Republican

Most important problem COVID-19

How has the coronavirus outbreak affected you and your family? Not able to work so money is getting tight. Husband is essential but due to me being a high risk person has been instructed to stay home as well

What should the state and local government do to deal with the coronavirus outbreak? I have no Idea…I think the decisions being made are just and understandable. It may be hard, but like the Spanish Flu it is important that we do what we can to stop the spread. If that means staying at home and social distancing then I think it is the right decision. I do understand it is a hit to us and the economy but I would rather be alive then dead

Continue ReadingA majority still supports Wisconsin’s shutdown, but opposition and uncertainty are growing

Wisconsin voters remain intensely polarized over Donald Trump

Writing this feels like the old SNL gag “Francisco Franco is still dead.” Attitudes toward Donald Trump are still polarized. Still, I think it’s worth pointing out that several months into the largest pandemic in a century, Donald Trump’s approval rating (in Wisconsin) hasn’t budged.

We’ve now conducted two polls during the COVID-19 pandemic and accompanying economic shutdown in Wisconsin. Political opinion on actions taken by the state government has shifted, and Governor Tony Evers job approval has fluctuated by double digits in each poll.

But by now it is clear. Donald Trump has not benefited from a significant rally ’round the flag effect, nor has he seen any real decline in his popularity. His overall approval rating was net 0 in late February, -1 in late March, and -2 in early May. Tony Evers, by contrast, began with an approval rating of +12 in February; this jumped to +36 in late March, and fell back to +26 just a month later.

Net approval ratings of Donald Trump and Tony Evers
Poll dates Trump Evers
2/19-23/20 0 12
3/24-29/20 -1 36
5/3-7/20 -2 26

What’s remarkable isn’t just that Wisconsin voters have made up their minds about Trump. A large number of Wisconsinites hold intensely strong opinions about Trump. Wisconsin is often discussed nationally as the most divided state in the nation–the most likely “tipping point” in a national election. To an outsider this might suggest that Wisconsin is full of undecided, persuadable voters. Our data suggests otherwise. Wisconsin is just more narrowly divided between strong partisans than most other states.

In our latest poll we asked 8 questions assessing different aspects of Donald Trump’s job performance. They covered things from Trump’s handling of immigration to his policy decisions in response to the pandemic. I combined all of these questions to create one metric for intensity of Trump support. If a respondent evaluated Trump positively I gave them a score of 1. If they evaluated Trump negatively, they received -1. “Somewhat” positive or negative evaluations received a half point in the appropriate direction. A score of 8 means the respondent answered every question in the most pro-Trump way possible, and a score of -8 means the reverse.

Here are the results. Nineteen percent of Wisconsin registered voters gave Trump the worst score they could, and 13 percent gave him a perfect 8/8. Twenty-six percent rated him -7 or worse, while 23 percent gave him a 7 or better. About half of Wisconsin voters have an overwhelmingly positive or negative opinion of the president. Just 5 percent give him a neutral score within the range 1 to -1.

histogram showing the distribution of sentiment toward Donald TrumpHere is the average score given Donald Trump by different demographic groups in the state of Wisconsin. As expected, party and ideological identification have the strongest polarization. The most narrowly divided group of all in this survey are residents of the Milwaukee suburbs.

Most of the groups in this chart with average scores close to 0 are not, in reality, full of voters with neutral opinions on Trump. Often, they just have close to even mixes of strongly and oppositely polarized voters.

average Trump sentiment index for various demographic groupsConsistent with Joe Biden’s small (and within the margin of error) lead, Trump’s average rating in this survey was -0.5. Given the potentially decisive importance of Wisconsin’s 10 electoral college votes and the state’s historically razor-thin margins of victory, I anticipate that both Democrats and Republicans will pursue aggressive turnout and persuasion strategies this fall. Even a tiny set of voters could prove pivotal.

Continue ReadingWisconsin voters remain intensely polarized over Donald Trump