John Johnson – Page 15 – Marquette University Law School Faculty Blog

Gender, Party ID, and the Wisconsin Primary

Post author:John Johnson
Post published:February 27, 2020
Post category:Lubar Center Public

The gender balance of the parties in Wisconsin is different than during recent past presidential elections. A significant number of men have changed their partisanship, shifting from the Democrats to the Republicans. Wisconsin women’s preferences haven’t systematically changed.

During the period 2012 through 2016, male registered voters in Wisconsin split 48% Republican – 42% Democratic (this includes independents who lean to a party). Since 2016, the balance has been 53% Republican compared to 36% Democratic. Women have remained a consistent 52-53% Democrat and 38% Republican.

This shift has had two main consequences. First, the relative size of the Democratic party has declined. From 2012-16, Democrats (including leaners) made up 48% of all Wisconsin registered voters; 43% were Republicans. Now, the Marquette Law Poll finds an even more narrowly divided electorate–44% Democrat and 45% Republican. Second, the Wisconsin Democratic party has become proportionally more female. Fifty-eight percent of self-identified Wisconsin Democrats were women in 2012-16. This has grown to 62% in the years since then.

Female Democratic primary voters have somewhat different preferences than their male counterparts. This graph below shows the support for each candidate from our February 2020 poll of Wisconsin women and men who intend to vote in the Democratic presidential primary in April.

Substantial gender gaps are apparent for some candidates, including Bernie Sanders, Amy Klobuchar, and Elizabeth Warren. But the margins of error are inevitably quite large due to the small subsample sizes of a single poll.

In order to maximize cases, the next graph pools all Marquette Law Poll surveys from August 2019 through February 2020. This months-long average does not reflect the most current levels of support for each candidate, but the direction of the gender differences remains the same. Elizabeth Warren is clearly more popular with women (18% support compared with 12% from men). Likewise, Bernie Sanders is more popular with male Democratic primary voters (25% compared to 18% among women). Amy Klobuchar and Joe Biden might be more popular with women, but the differences are small. Tulsi Gabbard receives support from about 3% of male Democratic primary voters and 0% of female voters. Pete Buttigieg’s support is the most evenly divided between men and women of any active candidate.

Milwaukee traffic accidents reach a new high in 2019, growing 65% since 2011

Post author:John Johnson
Post published:February 25, 2020
Post category:Lubar Center Milwaukee Area Project Public

A recent article by the Wisconsin Policy Forum details a disturbing increase in auto deaths among Wisconsin African Americans.

From 2013 to 2018, the motor vehicle crash fatality rate for black, non-Hispanic Wisconsinites nearly doubled on an age-adjusted basis, according to data from the federal Centers for Disease Control (see Figure 1). In raw numbers, motor vehicle deaths for black Wisconsinites increased from 31 in 2013 to 39 in 2014, 56 in 2015, and 62 in 2016. They hit a high of 79 in 2017.

This trend in fatal crashes coincides with a significant and ongoing increase in the total number of traffic accidents occurring in the City of Milwaukee. In 2011, MPD reported 10,616 accidents. By 2019, this had risen to 17,568.

Accidents have increased uniformly across every hour of the day and each day of the week. Sunday consistently has the fewest accidents and Friday has the most. In 2011 there were 26 accidents on the average Sunday and 32 on a normal Friday. In 2019 the average Sunday had 42 accidents; Fridays had 53.

The afternoon rush hour (4-5pm) causes the most accidents. 781 accidents occurred during these 60 minutes in 2011. In 2019, 1,379 did.

Every hour of the day saw double-digit percentage increases in traffic accidents from 2011 to 2019. But the wee hours of the morning underwent the smallest jumps, while the late afternoon and early evening experienced the biggest. Accidents from 2 to 3am increased 15%; they surged 98% during the 8pm hour.

The data in this post is from this City of Milwaukee dataset. It was downloaded on February 25, 2020. Reportable traffic accidents include all incidents causing either (1) injury or death, (2) least $200 of non-vehicle damage to government property, or (3) at least $1,000 of damage to any one person’s property.

Wisconsin voters give Trump different ratings on the economy and foreign policy, but it doesn’t affect his overall job approval among partisans

Post author:John Johnson
Post published:October 23, 2019
Post category:Lubar Center Marquette Law School Poll Public

Democrats, Republicans, and Independents all give Trump higher ratings on the economy than on foreign policy, but this doesn’t affect their overall approval of Trump among members of either party.

Republicans only give Trump a net +58% approval rating on foreign policy, but his overall net job approval matches that of his economic job approval (+83% and +84%, respectively).

Inversely, Democrats give Trump a net -78% rating on the economy, but their overall job approval is identical to their foreign policy approval at -94%.

Independents are more mixed. They give Trump a +8% net rating on the economy and a -31% rating on foreign policy. His overall approval lies in the middle at -10%.