John Johnson – Page 17 – Marquette University Law School Faculty Blog

Even in a time of great polarization, Trump’s job approval isn’t static

Post author:John Johnson
Post published:August 12, 2020
Post category:Marquette Law School Poll

In May, I wrote about how deeply polarized Wisconsin voters were over Donald Trump’s presidency. This basic fact hasn’t changed. In our latest poll, we asked about Trump’s handling of the economy, the pandemic, the recent civil rights protests, and his job overall. For each question, respondents could choose whether they strongly or only somewhat approved or disapproved. Thirteen percent gave Trump the highest score possible, strongly approving in all four questions. Thirty-two percent gave the worst score available, strongly disapproving of Trump’s handling of each issue. Just 2 percent gave a completely neutral response.

Yet focusing solely on the strong divisions in Wisconsin’s electorate can disguise the fact that Donald Trump’s approval rating does vary in real ways–both between different issues and over time. It appears about 45 percent of Wisconsin electors have a frozen position on Donald Trump–either entirely negative or completely positive. The remaining majority assess Trump’s performance differently depending on the issue.

Opinion differs by issue

The following graphs show Donald Trump’s ratings for each question broken out by party identification. In all cases I classify independents who lean to a political party as independents.

Trump’s best issue is the economy. Seventy-one percent of Republicans strongly approve of his job handling the economy, and conversely only 74 percent of Democrats strongly disapprove. Trump is rated worse by members of both parties on other aspects of his job. Fifty percent of Republicans strongly approve of the way he is handling the coronavirus pandemic; 92 percent of Democrats strongly disapprove. On Trump’s worst issue–handling of the protests following George Floyd’s death–44 percent of Republicans strongly approve, and 87 percent of Democrats strongly disapprove.

When a Democrat or Republican declines to “strongly” approve/disapprove of Trump, they usually slide into the next category of “somewhat” approving or disapproving of the president. There is a small but non-trivial group of Republicans who sometimes disapprove of Trump. Combining “somewhat” and “strongly” disapprove, 7 percent of Republicans dislike Trump’s handling of the economy, 11 percent his overall job performance, 16 percent his handling of the coronavirus, and 20 percent his handling of the protests. In these polarized times, it is a rare issue that can make one-fifth of a president’s co-partisans disapprove of him.

On the other side of the equation, 4 percent of Democrats either “somewhat” or “strongly” approve of Trump’s overall job performance. Nine percent approve of his handling of the economy, 4 percent approve of his handling of the coronavirus, and just 2 percent approve of his handling of the protests.

(click image to view a larger version)

Opinion differs over time

Over the course of 2020, Trump’s overall approval rating has worsened a little. Since January, “strongly disapprove” has increased from 40 percent to 46 percent, while “strongly” and “somewhat” approve have each declined by 2 points.

Several trends have contributed to this modest shift. Democratic opposition to the president has hardened. In January, 81 percent of Democrats strongly disapproved; 92 percent do in August. Most Democrats have ceased to hold middling views of Trump–either somewhat approving or disapproving. In January 16 percent of Democrats held one of these positions; now 5 percent do.

Among Republicans, strong approval peaked at 77 percent in February (around the time the impeachment process failed). Now, strong approval stands at 67 percent.

As usual, the views of Independents have been the most volatile. Trump benefited from a boost in popularity at the beginning of the shutdown, consistent with a small “rally ’round the flag” effect. In late March, his ratings among Independents reached 32 percent strongly approving, 20 percent somewhat approving, 9 percent somewhat disapproving, and 35 percent strongly disapproving. As the pandemic progressed, these numbers worsened. Now, in early August, 22 percent strongly approve of Trump, 18 percent somewhat approve, 13 percent somewhat disapprove, and 44 percent strongly disapprove.

The economy has consistently been Trump’s strongest issue in Marquette’s polling. This is still true, but it has slipped a bit during the pandemic. Seventy-one percent of Republicans strongly approve, down from 79 percent in January. Seventy-four percent of Democrats strongly disapprove, up from 58 percent in January. Independents have always been closely divided on this issue, but, for the first time in 2020, the share strongly disapproving now exceeds those strongly approving; although, this result is within the margin of error.

The COVID-19 pandemic has changed from a relatively decent issue for Donald Trump to a remarkably bad one. In late March, 68 percent of Republicans strongly approved of the job Trump was doing to handle the outbreak, and 73 percent of Democrats strongly disapproved. Independents were evenly divided with 31 percent strongly approving and 30 percent strongly disapproving.

Now, in early August, the share of Republicans strongly approving has declined to 50 percent, the proportion of Democrats strongly disapproving has risen to 92 percent, and Independents have decisively shifted away from the president. Fifty percent strongly disapprove of Trump’s handling of the outbreak, and 16 percent strongly approve.

I do not include a trendline for approval of Donald Trump’s handling of the protests about the death of George Floyd because we have only polled twice since June, and none of the changes in opinion by party exceed the margin of error.

Electoral implications

People with less strong opinions about Donald Trump also say they are less likely to vote. It’s impossible to separate the causality. No doubt some people are less likely to vote because they dislike both candidates, but other people probably have less strong opinions about the candidates because they rarely participate politically anyway.

Likelihood of voting is significantly dependent on the strength of one’s feelings toward Donald Trump. Ninety-two percent of registered voters who totally approve or disapprove of Trump say they are certain to vote, compared with 81 percent of those who mostly approve or disapprove, and 71 percent of those with more middling or neutral views.

Compared to the beginning of the year, our polling finds Joe Biden a bit better off in his matchup with Donald Trump. Among all registered voters, we recorded a Biden lead of 4 points in January and a tie in February. In June, we found a Biden lead of 8 points, and in August that lead was 6 points.

This is not an enormous change. Despite Trump’s deteriorating approval ratings, Biden does not appear to be running away with the election in Wisconsin. Skepticism of Donald Trump does not automatically translate into support for Joe Biden.

As expected, Trump receives 99 percent of the vote among the most enthusiastic Trump approvers. Conversely, Biden gets 92 percent of the vote among the most inveterate Trump disapprovers. Those mostly positive toward Trump give him 96 percent of the vote. Those mostly negative give Biden 82 percent. Even among the softest Trump supporters, those only somewhat more positive than negative, Trump gets 80 percent of the vote and Biden only 2 percent.

A significant share of Wisconsin voters dissatisfied with Trump either haven’t made up their mind or plan to vote for a third party in November. Three of Wisconsin’s last five presidential elections have been decided by less than one percentage point. If the 2020 election follows that pattern, the decisions of voters who don’t like Trump but aren’t sold on Biden either may be the deciding factor.

How are Wisconsin voters experiencing the pandemic economy?

Post author:John Johnson
Post published:June 25, 2020
Post category:Lubar Center Marquette Law School Poll

Wisconsin’s unemployment rate hit 14 percent in April and remained at 12 percent in May. Combining surveys from late March, early May, and mid June, the Marquette Law Poll found that 13 percent of Wisconsin registered voters had lost a job or been laid-off due to the coronavirus outbreak. A further 23 percent said this had happened to a family member. Likewise, 23 percent reported working fewer hours due to the coronavirus outbreak, and another 29 percent said this had happened to a family member. Altogether, 27 percent of those interviewed had either lost a job, lost hours, or both at some point during the economic shutdown.

Taken by themselves, these numbers suggest an economic catastrophe on par with the Great Depression, but that has not happened–at least not yet–in the experiences of most Wisconsinites. In nearly every poll, we ask respondents to evaluate their family’s financial situation–are they “living comfortably, just getting by, or struggling to make ends meet?” The trend is remarkably flat. In January 2020 63 percent said they were living comfortably–statistically indistinguishable from the 61 percent saying the same thing in June. So what gives?

Our poll alone cannot answer this question definitely, but it can offer some clues. Just as COVID-19 has hurt some communities in Wisconsin more than others, so too has the accompanying economic crisis. Along with disproportionate cases and deaths, Black and Latinx Wisconsin residents faced a stark economic toll. The number of Black respondents “struggling to make ends meet” increased from 10 percent in January/February to 22 percent during the pandemic. The proportion of Latinx respondents “living comfortably” declined from 66 percent to 47 percent over the same period.

In early 2020, prior to the economic shutdown, 63 percent of respondents described their family as “living comfortably.” People who lost their job during the pandemic did indeed report declining financial comfort. Just 37 percent of those who lost a job were “living comfortably.” Even worse off were those whose families lost multiple jobs. Only one in three people in this position were “living comfortably;” 57 percent were “just getting by,” and 11 percent were “struggling to make ends meet.” But people who suffered no financial ill effects actually improved their self-assessed financial well-being during the pandemic. Among people whose families lost no jobs or hours, 70 percent were “living comfortably,” 25 percent “just getting by,” and only 4 percent struggling to make ends meet.

The table below compares experiences by income level in 2019. To maximize cases, I pooled together all respondents who reported a job loss among any member of their family.

Before the pandemic, 37 percent of people with household incomes below $40,000 said they were living comfortably. People in this income bracket whose family lost at least one job during the shutdown now report a 24 percent rate of “living comfortably”–a 13 percent decline. Forty-seven percent of people from families who avoided income losses now say they are “living comfortably”–a 10 percent increase. The same pattern repeats itself in each other income tier.

What accounts for the increase in “living comfortably” among those who’ve kept their jobs? I see three possible explanations, all of which probably contribute in some way.

First, job losses in the pandemic have been concentrated among lower-wage workers. It could be that those who lost their jobs were already more likely to be financially struggling. Second, people whose families have kept their jobs may feel themselves lucky and are thus more likely to positively evaluate their subjective financial well-being. Third, people who have maintained an uninterrupted income stream may actually be making and/or saving more money than before. Whatever the cause, the pandemic appears to be sharpening the division between haves and have-nots in Wisconsin’s economy.

Why isn’t Racine part of the Milwaukee Metropolitan Statistical Area?

Post author:John Johnson
Post published:June 1, 2020
Post category:Lubar Center Milwaukee Area Project

The Milwaukee Metropolitan Statistical Area (“The Milwaukee Metro”) consists of Milwaukee, Waukesha, Washington, and Ozaukee counties, but not Racine County. Why not? Racine County, home to Wisconsin’s fifth largest city, lies just to the south of Milwaukee County. The answer to this question reveals much about the economic geography of southeastern Wisconsin. Despite its close physical proximity to the Milwaukee Metro, Racine County still lacks economic integration with its neighbor to the north. There are doubtlessly many ways in which Racine is part of the “Greater Milwaukee Area,” but workforce connectivity (the key metric used to define metro areas) is not one of them.

Understanding core based statistical areas

Metropolitan Statistical Areas are a vital concept for understanding American cities because the legal boundaries of “central cities” vary so much from one place to another and because the cultural, economic and social web of a city extends well beyond wherever those political boundaries calcified. Since 1949 the federal government has defined what are currently called “core based statistical areas” (CBSAs). A CBSA containing at least one urbanized area with at least 50,000 or more residents is a “metropolitan statistical area.” Smaller CBSAs are “micropolitan statistical areas.” As the term “core-based” suggests, Micro- or Metro-politan areas are centered around one or more principal cities. The most populous municipality in each CBSA is a principal city by default, but additional cities are designated principal cities if they draw large numbers of commuters in their own right. The Los Angeles metropolitan area has 19 principal cities, for instance. The Milwaukee Metro has two principal cities–Milwaukee and Waukesha.

The boundaries of core based statistical areas are defined using commuter flows. There are two main ways for a place to be part of a CBSA. One way is to be a commuter hub–a principal city–drawing in workers from the rest of the region. In an MSA with multiple principal cities, each will act as an interconnected hub, with large numbers of workers commuting each direction every day. As I wrote in 2017, “Milwaukee city attracts the most workers—some 125,000 in total. Still, nearly 95,000 people leave the city for work every day. Thirty-thousand of them go to Waukesha county, while 30,000 in Waukesha commute to the city of Milwaukee. The net-worker balance between Milwaukee city and Waukesha county is virtually equal.” The other way for an area to be part of a CBSA is as a commuter suburb. Some places attract very few outside workers, but provide a large number of employees for other towns. Muskego in Waukesha county is a good example. Eighty-five percent of its workers commute somewhere else, and the town’s population shrinks by about 30% during the workday.

Few workers commute from Milwaukee or Waukesha to Racine

Given this criteria, Racine County is in an odd situation. Like Waukesha, it has a principal city of its own. Reflecting this, about two-thirds of workers from Racine and Waukesha counties alike commute to work within their county of residence. This is much more than Washington or Ozaukee counties where just half of commuters work in their county of residence. Again like Waukesha county, Racine county does send more than a few workers to the Milwaukee metro. Seventeen percent go to Milwaukee county and 6 percent to Waukesha. But this relationship is not reciprocal. Just 1 percent of Milwaukee county workers commute to Racine, compared to 14 percent going to Waukesha. Waukesha sends 28 percent of its workers to Milwaukee but just 1 percent to Racine.

Racine County has a one-way commuter relationship with the Milwaukee metro area. The City of Racine is a commuter hub locally, but its pull does not reach far. Thirteen Milwaukee county workers commute west to Waukesha county for every 1 who travels south to Racine County.

Racine doesn’t do much better with its southern neighbor Kenosha county, either. Kenosha county is classified as part of the Chicago MSA. About 27 percent of its workers travel to Illinois compared to just 11 percent who work in Racine.

The boundaries of metropolitan statistical areas are intended to describe reality, not shape it. In the future, Racine’s economy may become intertwined with Milwaukee’s in the same way that Milwaukee and Waukesha have grown into a single economic unit. The Foxconn project could be the catalyst needed to make this shift (if it is ever completed). In the meantime, however, Racine remains a close cousin, if not a sibling member of the Milwaukee Metro.