Presidential, Senate Races in Wisconsin Are Tied, New Poll Results Show

Changing opinions, particularly among voters who label themselves independents, and the impact of campaign events – especially the first presidential debate – have brought both the presidential and US Senate races in Wisconsin to dead ties, according to results of a new round of the Marquette Law School Poll released Wednesday.

Both races are now pure toss-ups, said Professor Charles Franklin, director of the poll and visiting professor of law and public policy at the Law School.

In poll results four weeks ago, Democratic President Barack Obama led by 14 points over Republican challenger Mitt Romney. Two weeks ago, Obama was up by 11 points. But in polling done Oct. 11 to 14 – just ahead of the second presidential debate – Obama was favored by 49% and Romney by 48%, effectively a tie.

Franklin pointed to the impact of the presidential debate in Denver as a central factor. Obama’s performance in that debate was widely panned. “Rarely has a debate produced such a large movement in the polls,” Franklin said.

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An Interview with Professor Jack Kircher

[Editor’s Note: This blog is the third in a series of interviews with faculty and staff at the Law School.]

A member of the Law School faculty since 1970, Professor Kircher teaches torts, insurance, products liability, and seminars in advanced issues on torts. He received the Marquette University Faculty Award for Teaching Excellence in 1986 and the Marquette Law Review Editors’ Award in 1988. In 1993 he received the American Bar Association Tort and Insurance Practice Section’s Robert B. McKay Award for distinction in the teaching of torts and insurance law. Before coming to the Law School, he practiced law and subsequently was Research Director of the Defense Research Institute. He has chaired the Wisconsin Judicial Council and the Wisconsin Supreme Court Board of Bar Examiners. He is coauthor of Punitive Damages: Law and Practice. Professor Kircher is a member of the Editorial Board of the Defense Law Journal, and was Editor of the Federation of Defense & Corporate Counsel Quarterly.

Question:  How did you first become interested in insurance and tort law, and what do you find most intriguing about those areas of law?

My interest in the two subjects started in law school, most probably because they were taught by my favorite professor, Jim Ghiardi. It developed in my first three years after law school due to my work in a defense firm that handled cases in those two areas. It developed further and faster thereafter when Jim asked me to join him as his second-in-command at a legal think tank, the Defense Research Institute, that concentrated its work in those two areas. Also the two subjects are interesting to me because the law constantly changes. In fact, by the time I left the Law School the Wisconsin Supreme Court had changed about 25 percent of what I learned in first-year Torts. I would expect that most of the law I learned in my other courses has remained nearly the same.

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New Poll Results: Shifts Among Independents Affect Senate and Presidential Races

Shifting opinions among people who consider themselves independent voters are leading to changes in the shape of the races for Wisconsin’s 10 electoral votes for president and for Wisconsin’s open US Senate seat, new results of the Marquette Law School Poll show.

In results released Wednesday for the Senate race, Rep. Tammy Baldwin, the Democratic candidate, led former Gov. Tommy Thompson, the Republican candidate, by four percentage points, 48% to 44%. That compared to a nine point Baldwin margin two weeks earlier and a nine point margin in favor of Thompson in mid-August.

Democratic President Barack Obama led Republican challenger Mitt Romney by 11 percentage points, 53% to 42%, in the presidential race in Wisconsin. That compares to a 14 point lead (54% to 40%) in results released two weeks ago.

Professor Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll, said all four of the candidates have high levels of support (more than 90%) among likely voters who identify themselves with each candidate’s party. But there are changes among independents. Franklin said, “In mid-August, independents leaned a bit Republican in the Senate and slightly Democratic for president. In mid-September, they leaned strongly Democratic in both races, and now they are swinging back to more competitive balance.”

The results showed substantial gender gaps in both the presidential and Senate races, with majorities of women supporting Obama and Baldwin and majorities of men supporting Romney and Thompson.

The new polling was conducted from Sept. 27 to 30. The results are based on answers from 1,003 registered voters, of whom 894 were considered likely to vote in November. The margin of error among likely voters is 3.3 percentage points.

For details and results of all the questions in the new poll, click here.

 

 

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